khandor’s sports blog

This year’s draft will take place on Thursday [June 24].

According to 3 recent ‘mock drafts’, the first 10 selections are likely to play out in the following ways:

Which would then mean the following group of players will not be available to the Raptors with the #13 pick:

while at least 2 of the following group of players shown below in neon green will most likely still be available when Toronto makes the #13 selection:

The key poll question for today is:

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Related:

Revisiting Draft Rater [includes John Hollinger's subjective Draft Board]

While there is much to be gained from understanding how statistical appraisals of real life players can sometimes unearth information which is not readily discernible by the naked, untrained eye so, too, is it the case that an over-reliance on number-crunching of this same sort can obscure the clear view of what a specific player brings to the court in a NBA game.

Such is the case today with the following observations made by Yahoo! Sports’ Kelly Dwyer, regarding the skill-set and functionability of Dahntay Jones, outlined in the bolded text of the following quotation:

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The Pacers hold off rebuilding for another year
The latest move has been the push to pay Dahntay Jones through his prime kicking and pushing years. It’s an awful contract, even at the cheap price of four years and $11 million, because what Jones does is so utterly replaceable.

He gets the reputation as a defensive stopper, but last year’s Nuggets were actually better defensively with him off the floor (and way better offensively). George Karl just liked the idea of starting the tough guy over the mercurial J.R. Smith, so he kept up the charade. 

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In sharp contrast to Mr. Dwyer’s perception of Mr. Jones, as a “cookie-cutter” defensive player who isn’t worth his weight in gold … or the free agent contract he is reportedly set to sign with the Indiana Pacers tomorrow … yours truly has a very different understanding of what DJ brings to the table every day that is most definitely NOT easily replaceable by any Tom, Dick or Harry culled from the NBA’s scrap-heap.

At 6-6, 210 with a well-developed physical [and somewhat dirty mean] streak in him … Mr. Jones is one of the VERY FEW players in the entire NBA with the “capacity to neutralize” an extraordinary offensive talent like Chris Paul [PG], as he did this past season in the 1st Round of the Playoffs.

You can search high and low, naming every supposed defensive stopper across the breadth of the League … i.e. including Shane Battier, Tayshaun Prince, Bruce Bowen, Kobe Bryant, James Posey, Shannon Brown and Lindsay Hunter, etc. … and you will not find a single player with the combination of skills, physical attributes and attitude, that it takes to do what was done to CP3 in 4 of those 5 games.

The fact that Denver’s offensive & defensive team “productivity numbers” both went down when Mr. Jones was on the floor is not an accurate indicator of his personal level of proficiency as a high end defensive role player in the NBA who is capable of checking the opponent’s #1/PG, #2/OG and #3/SF.

When you then combine what Mr. Jones brings to the table defensively with the way in which he plays offense … i.e. as a low-volume shooter who is comfortable when playing within a highly defined role for a team that’s founded on the principles of teamwork & physical/aggressive play at both ends of the court, and in terms of rebounding … he becomes a highly valuable commodity in today’s NBA … especially for an outfit like Indiana that features a mostly finesse line-up like this:

PG – Jarrett Jack or TJ Ford 
OG – ??? or Brandon Rush [SF-?]
SF – Danny Granger or Mike Dunleavy [OG-?]
PF – Troy Murphy or Tyler Hansbrough 
C – Roy Hibbert or Jeff Foster

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Q1. Will the Pacers win the NBA Championship this coming season?

A1. No they will not.

Q2. Will they compete for the #6-8 playoff spots in the EC, after missing out the last two seasons?

A2. Without a doubt … if they decide to match the contract offer that the Raptors made to Jarret Jack this past weekend.

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Under the leadership of Larry Bird and David Morway the Pacers are attempting to climb out of a significant hole, while re-building their franchise without ever sinking to the bottom of the NBA.

If they can make the playoffs this season, it will be a major accomplishment, and provide another checkmark along the way back to respectability for this once proud team.

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PS. In fact, once the Pacers can rid themselves of the $7.0 M/yr contract they have tied up with Jamaal Tinsley they will be right back in business, as a legitimate contending team in the EC … with a player like Dahntay Jones defending for them at the OG position, beside Danny Granger & Co.

Instead of fluff pieces like this …

The Love is Gone
There’s been a definite backlash against Bosh this past year, partly, we’re sure, out of frustration because their team was so disappointing this past season. It appears that the realization that Bosh is most likely best-suited as a second option on a good team has made him a focus of fans’ ire.

which contain erroneous opinions about a stalwart player like Chris Bosh, more media attention needs to shift focus onto the person who is actually responsible for the team’s precipitous decline in performance over the last few seasons.

The fact is …

* Chris Bosh’s productivity is not what’s declined recently, in Raptorville.

* The quality of Bryan Colangelo’s decision-making has declined during these years:

2005-2006, 14-21/.400, 4th/Atlantic Division, 12th/Eastern Conference
2006-2007, 47-35/.573, 1st/Atlantic Division, 3rd/Eastern Conference
2007-2008, 41-41/.500, 2nd/Atlantic Division, 6th/Eastern Conference
2008-2009, 33-49/.402, 4th/Atlantic Division, 13th/Eastern Conference
Overall, 135-146/.480, Zero ["0"] Playoff Series Victories

2006 List of Transactions
2007 List of Transactions
2008 List of Transactions
2009 List of Transactions

After 3.5 seasons at the Raptors’ helm, it should now be clear for others to see that the few NBA Experts who claimed that MLSE actually hired an “average” GM to run its basketball operation, in the aftermath of dismissing Rob Babcock [i.e. another less-than-stellar GM, in his own right] … if the actual goal was to become a championship calibre team in the not-too-distant future … were, in fact, 100% correct.

None of which is to say that Bryan Colangelo is, either, incompetent or should be fired anytime soon but, rather, only that:

1. Denigrating a player like Chris Bosh is a case of mis-placed, ill-informed blame;

and,

2. The actual Evaluation Spotlight needs to be focused instead on the Leadership of the Organization for failing to do its job properly, up to this point, if the proper steps are going to be taken moving forward.

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The best way to build a championship calibre team in the NBA today remains the same as it has always been:

1. Have one stable owner who is in the game to win championships, not mainly to maximize profits [which should only be viewed as an off-shoot which comes from Winning];

2. Have a General Manager with outstanding Basketball Acumen … and a long term commitment to build a championship calibre organization, with the primary goal of winning the NBA Title, year after year;

3. Have a Head Coach with a specific and comprehensive Approach To Playing The Game which emphasizes the basic fundamentals of [I] Rebounding, [II] Team Offense and [III] Team Defense, in a balanced way … but who can also orchestrate and take advantage of mis-match situations.

4. Have a number of outstanding individual players who [I] buy into the Team Concept, whole-heartedly, [II] with Good Character and [III] a Combination of Individual Strengths which [i] Fit Well Together, [i] Create and Cope with Mis-match Situations, provide [iii] Quality Depth [overall] and, at least, [iv] two or three solid Scorers, a stable Point Guard and a stable Center.

5. Acquire these outstanding players, primarily, through the annual NBA Draft, secondarily, via specific Trades and, thirdly, with select Free Agent signings … while adhering to the Basic Tenets outlined in #1, #2, #3 and #4, listed above.

Organizations which choose to violate these guidelines … although they might win a lot of regular season games, advance through a few rounds of the playoffs, and make a lot of money for their owner[s] along the way … will fail to win the NBA championship, repeatedly.

Basketball is a fantastic game.

In the end … The Ball Don’t Lie.