An accurate understanding of what exactly is going on these days in Raptorville is not arrived at easily for many of the team’s rabid fans who are active participants in the on-line hoops community. Amidst the general euphoria that has taken hold in the aftermath of last week’s seemingly stunning 4-team trade extravaganza with Dallas, Orlando and Memphis … which netted the Raptors:
* Hedo Turkoglu [F, Orlando, UFA]
* Antoine Wright [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season]
* Devean George [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season], and
* Preserved their right to use the Mid Level Exception [MLE], the Low Level Exception [LLE], and exercise their [Larry] Bird Rights towards resigning their own Unrestricted Free Agents [UFA]
at the expense of:
* Shawn Marion [Sign & Trade with Orlando, UFA]
* Kris Humphries [trade with Dallas; injured much of last season]
* Nathan Jawai [trade with Dallas; disabled much of last season]
* 2nd Round Draft Pick/2016 [trade with Dallas]
* Cash Considerations [trade with Dallas]
The stark reality of this team’s current situation is perhaps best reflected in the bright lights of the following 5 observations:
PART ONE
The post-trade outlook for the Raptors which was first put together by “Dave” [nbaroundtable, Thu July 9], extolling the possible virtues:
PART TWO The specific comment which “Dave” then left in a different thread on his blog, later that same afternoon, indicating his actual thoughts on their chances to succeed with their current roster configuration:
This is the Raptors fail safe option. When they fail, and they will fail, they need to have this option open to them and then use this option.
This means no extra contracts that last beyond two years. I will dislike pretty much any contract that goes beyond two seasons. As long as the contract is than two seasons, spending that money doesn’t bother me in the slightest.
Dead End
The Raptors are going nowhere, and they need a miracle to happen for this plan to have any chance of working out. The Raptors are going to run into [sic] dead end.
Now, it’s time just to sit back and let things play out. Things will not improve until Colangelo figures out Bargnani isn’t a cornerstone of this franchise … until that happens, there’s nothing else that can be done to put the Raptors on the right road.
The Raptors can’t get out of the corner that they’ve boxed themselves into, until Bargnani is moved on. Any aspirations for a title are on hold until this happens.
———-
PART THREE The specific comment which was made on this blog [July 11, 11:35 AM], by yours truly, that addressed the supposed “Qualitative Improvement” of the Raptors current roster pieces in comparison with last season’s end-of-year squad, pertaining to the question of:
———-
Which team made out best from 4-team trade? IMO, the Raptors have made upgrades in certain areas thus far but it would be a mistake in judgment to assess this improvement as being “a lot better“, just yet:
No BEFORE ADV AFTER
1 Calderon = Calderon
2 Parker <– Wright … AP is significantly better
3 Marion = Turkoglu … Turkoglu is NOT significantly better
4 Bosh = Bosh
5 Bargnani = Bargnani
—————————-
6 Ukic = Ukic
7 Kapono –> DeRozan * … cyclical due to draft
8 Graham = George … Devean is NOT significantly better
9 Humphries = Evans … Reggie is NOT significantly better
10 O’Bryant –> Nesterovic … Rasho is much better!
—————————-
11 Douby = Delfino … is different but NOT much better
12 Mensah-Bonsu = Mensah-Bonsu
—————————-
13 Banks = Banks
14 Jawai ? Barnes … jury still out on Nathan
15 Voskuhl = O’Bryant
Those who are looking at these changes in an excessively positive light are the ones looking through rose-coloured spectacles.
———-
PART FOUR
The Shifting Player Personnel Chart that was constructed by yours truly yesterday:
TORONTO RAPTORS ROSTERS
2007-2008 vs 2008-2009 vs 2009-2010
No
2007-2008
END
2008-2009
2009-2010
START
Mitchell
Triano
1
Triano
2
1
2
3
4
5
Ford
Parker
Delfino
Moon
Bosh
Calderon
Parker
Moon
Bosh
O’Neal T
Calderon
Parker
Moon
Bosh
O’Neal
Calderon
Parker U
Marion T, U
Bosh
Bargnani
Calderon
Wright T, E
Turkoglu T
Bosh
Bargnani
6
7
8
9
10
Calderon
Kapono
Graham
Humphries
Bargnani
Solomon U
Kapono
Graham
Humphries
Bargnani
Solomon
Kapono
Graham
Humphries
Bargnani
Ukic
Kapono
Graham U
Humphries X
O’Bryant T
Jack R *
DeRozan Y1
George T, E
Evans T
Nesterovic U *
11
12
Dixon
Nesterovic
Ukic Y1
Adams U
Ukic
Adams
Douby T, U
Voskuhl U
Delfino R *
O’Bryant
13
14
15
Martin
Brezec
Baston
Jawai Y1
Jawai
Banks T
M-Bonsu U
Jawai
Banks
M-Bonsu R *
Ukic
16
Garbajosa @
Delfino R @
Douby
W/L
41-41/.500
8-9/.471
13-25/.342
12-15/.444
?/?
Legend:
X – Injured; Y1 – Rookie; R – Restricted Free Agent; U – Unrestricted Free Agent; @ – Not on active roster; W/L – Won-Lost record; Mitchell – Up to Dec 3, 2008; Triano1 – Before Shawn Marion trade; Triano2 – After Shawn Marion trade; T – Acquired via trade; E – Expiring contract this coming season; * – Expected to sign soon as Free Agent
which shows the drastic player changes that have happened with the Raptors for each of the past two seasons.
PART FIVE
The glaring RED ALERT that was issued on Sunday by David Berri [i.e. noted economist, NBA "sage & soothsayer", author of The Wages of Wins Journal]:
When we put the whole picture together, it appears the Raptors will employ the following starting line-up in 2009-10: Calderon (PG), Wright and/or DeRozan (SG), Turkoglu (SF), Bosh (PF), Bargnani [C]. Last season the NBA veterans in this line-up combined to produce fewer than 30 wins. So unless these players improve dramatically, or the team finds very productive players off the bench, it’s hard to see how this team improves dramatically. And that’s true even if Delfino returns to Toronto (although if Evans returns to what we saw in the past there might be some hope this team can get past 40 wins).
All of this means that
Turkoglu will be seeing much more money in 2009-10, but probably far fewer wins.
Bargnani will also see much more money, but it seems unlikely he is ever going to produce many wins.
Bosh will see even more money after this next season, but if the Raptors don’t approach 45 or 50 wins (which seems likely) then it seems unlikely that the money Bosh is paid in the future is going to be paid by the Raptors.
So it looks likely the Raptors record performance in 2007-08 will stand for awhile. In other words, if Bosh departs this team in 2010, then rebuilding will probably continue beyond 2009-10.
And this means — assuming the Raptors don’t make any major change to this team — the fans of the Raptors will keep paying money to see a team that’s not contending for a title.
———-
Experience says that when disparate individuals like:
1. “Dave” [nbaroundtable] … who combines statistics with Basketball Acumen;
2. khandor [that's me ] … who relies primarily on Basketball Acumen;
and,
3. David Berri … who relies heavily on a statistical approach to the analysis of on-court production for players in the NBA;
actually arrive at a similar conclusion … which is essentially opposed to the GENERAL CONSENSUS that exists in Raptorville today … it portends of difficult times ahead for this team in the coming season.
In the best interests of the franchise, let’s hope that all three of these “stray birds” are eventually proven to be wrong in their assessment of the team.
Prior to the recent transaction between the Raptors [Bryan Colangelo], Mavericks [Donnie Nelson], Magic [Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik] and Grizzlies [Chris Wallace], this is what each of those team’s rosters looked like:
ROSTERS BEFORE 4-TEAM TRADE
No
RAPTORS
MAVERICKS
MAGIC
GRIZZLIES
1
2
3
4
5
Calderon
Parker–UFA
Marion–UFA
Bosh
Bargnani
Kidd
Wright
Howard
Nowitzki
Dampier
Nelson
Carter
Turkoglu–UFA
Lewis
Howard
Conley
Mayo
Gay
Warrick–RFA
Gasol
6
7
8
9
10
Ukic
Douby
DeRozan–R
Evans
O’Bryant
Barea
Terry
George
Bass–UFA
Hollins–RFA
Johnson
Redick
Pietrus
Anderson
Gortat–RFA
Jaric
Richardson
Young–R
Arthur
Thabeet–R
11
12
Banks
Humphries
Carroll
Singleton–UFA
Richardson–RFA
Miles
Haddadi
13
14
15
16
17
Delfino–RFA
Jawai
M-Bonsu–RFA
Beaubois–R
Ross
Williams
Nivins–R
Stackhouse
Carroll–R
TPE
Adams $0.7 M
Kapono $1.1 M
Moon $0.7 M
Solomon $0.7 M
Dooling $2.0 M
Wilks $0.8 M
Coming out the other side, today, this is what they look like now, respectively:
ROSTERS AFTER 4-TEAM TRADE
No
RAPTORS
MAVERICKS
MAGIC
GRIZZLIES
1
2
3
4
5
Calderon
Wright
Turkoglu
Bosh
Bargnani
Kidd
Howard
Marion
Nowitzki
Dampier
Nelson
Carter
Pietrus
Lewis
Howard
Conley
Mayo
Gay
Warrick–RFA
Gasol
6
7
8
9
10
Ukic
DeRozan–R
George
Evans
O’Bryant
Barea
Terry
Ross
Bass–UFA
Hollins–RFA
Johnson
Redick
Richardson–RFA
Anderson
Gortat–RFA
Jaric
Richardson
Young–R
Arthur
Thabeet–R
11
12
Banks
Delfino–RFA
Carroll
Singleton–UFA
Miles
Haddadi
13
14
15
M-Bonsu–RFA
Beaubois–R
Williams
Humphries
Carroll–R
16
17
Nivins–R
Jawai
TPE
Adams $0.7 M
Kapono $1.1 M
Moon $0.7 M
Solomon $0.7 M
Dooling $2.0 M
Wilks $0.8 M Turkoglu $7.0 M
DP
2nd Rounder,
Tor/2016
CC
From Dallas
From Toronto
Legend: UFA – Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA – Restricted Free Agent; R – Rookie Player; TPE – Traded Player Exception; DP – Draft Pick; CC - Cash Considerations
—————————————————
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—————————————————
The Perspective From This Corner
IMPROVEMENT TO ROSTER SITUATION
TEAM
MINUS
ADD
NET GAIN
MAVERICKS
Wright
George
Stackhouse
Marion
Buckner
Humphries
Jawai
Substantial improvement. i.e. Marion is the best overall player in the deal [+]. Period. Humphries is a serviceable Big [+]. Jawai is a reserve [0]. Buckner will be cut. Stackhouse was inactive. George was a reserve. Wright was a pseudo-Starter only.
RESULT: ++ Gain
MAGIC
Turkoglu
TPE $7.0-to-10.0 M
Zero immediate improvement, i.e. Add Carter; Lose Turkoglu [0] … BUT with a gigantic CAVEAT. Now have $7.0-to-10.0 M worth of TPE’s [+], should they be in contention for a championship this coming season, in an effort to push them over the final hurdle. A Commitment To Winning It All.
RESULT: 0|+ Gain
RAPTORS
Parker
Marion
Humphries
Jawai
Wright
Turkoglu
George
Marginal improvement, only. i.e. Parker is a better player than Wright [-]. Turkoglu is a better clutch player than Marion [+], but Marion is a better player overall and a lot more athletic [-]. George and Humphries are even.
Turkoglu commitment provides stability at #3/SF [+]
RESULT: >> 0 Gain
GRIZZLIES
Buckner
CC [?]
Almost Zero improvement. CC plus a 2nd Round Draft Pick way, way off in the distance.
RESULT: > 0 Gain
The fact is, however, that the Cleveland Cavaliers [Danny Ferry] MAY have benefitted most of all from this specific transaction, as they subsequently gained unfettered access to Anthony Parker, the exact sort of complementary wing player they were searching for … to augment LeBron James & Co., in an effort to win their 1st NBA Championship.
Your feedback is welcome in the “Comments” section.
Araujo pick set off chain reaction I‘ve always considered the drafting of Rafael Araujo the Raptors’ original sin. It set off a chain reaction the team has never really recovered from.
Araujo, as every Raptors fan knows, was picked No.8 overall by Rob Babcock, who promised on draft night that the big Brazilian was “Not a stiff.”
Well, he was a stiff. One with small hands and short arms and – quite literally – no upside.
Missing at No.8 isn’t ordinarily the end of the world. It happens. And it says A LOT about the NBA that having the chance to pick the eighth – or in this year’s draft – the ninth best player in the world in a given year carries with it no certainty of success.
Tough league.
But the 2004 draft had its share of good players. One of them – Andre Iguodala – was taken ninth by the Philadelphia 76ers, as every Raptors fan knows.
Which is the problem: It’s not so much that Araujo was a bust, it’s that Iguodala represents exactly and – short of Kobe/LeBron/Wade – I mean exactly what the franchise needs.
He slashes. He defends other wings. He’s a one-man fastbreak. He’s a passable spot-up shooter. He’s very good playmaker and passer. He’s relatively affordable, at $12-million a year, which is pretty good value for a Tier 1A wing player in the NBA.
But you know all this.
Still, I’ve been thinking about Iguodala as I’ve [been] watching Mickael Pietrus with the Orlando Magic.
———-
In contrast, what this corner sees is that the specific time-line … i.e. Chain Reaction … for the de-evolution of the Raptors looks like this:
* Fired Glen Grunwald, Apr 1, 2004
* Hired Rob Babcock, Jun 7, 2004
* Drafted Rafael Araujo [No. 8], Jun 24 2004
* Hired Sam Mitchell, Jun 29, 2004
* Traded Vince Carter, Dec 17, 2004 [for exactly what, in return?]
* Fired Babcock, Jan 26, 2006
* Hired Bryan Colangelo, Feb 28, 2006
* Drafted Andrea Bargnani [No. 1], Jun 28, 2006
* Traded Charlie Villanueva for TJ Ford, Jul 1, 2006
* Traded for Carlos Delfino, Jun 15, 2007
* Signed Jason Kapono, Jul 11, 2007
* Traded TJ Ford & Rasho Nesterovic & No. 17 Draft Pick for Jermaine O’Neal & No. 41 Draft Pick, Jun 26, 2008
* Signed Hassan Adams, Jul 8, 2008
* Signed Roko Ukic, Jul 16, 2008
* Signed Will Solomon, Jul 28, 2008
* Bought out Jorge Garbajosa, Aug 10, 2008
* Fired Mitchell, Dec 3, 2008
33-49/.402, 14th place in the Eastern Conference
———-
April 1, 2004 [and, then, Dec 17] will live-on, in infamy … as a sort of very real, cruel JOKE … in the history of this franchise, purpetrated by Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment [MLSE, i.e. Richard Peddie & Larry Tanenbaum].
When you look at these 4 post-game interviews from last night’s Tor/PHI match-up …
it is plain to see that a different “attitude” has now settled in amongst the current group of Raptors, which no longer resembles the squad that functioned as a unit, through good times and in bad for Toronto, during the tenure of much-maligned former Head Coach, Sam Mitchell.
This corner is NOT suggesting that this “new” attitude has arisen recently as a by-product of Sam Mitchell’s dismissal, back in December, and/or the specific role Interim Head Coach, Jay Triano, has played since then.
On the contrary, actually.
According to these eyes … this “new” change is one which has only just come to light in the last few days, coinciding with:
* The team’s current 6-game losing streak
* It’s ever-dwindling hopes to make the playoffs
* The departures of Jermaine O’Neal [to Miami], Jamario Moon [to Miami], Will Solomon [to Sactown] and Nathan Jawai [to the NBDL]
* The arrivals of Shawn Marion [from Miami], Marcus Banks [from Miami] and Patrick O’Bryant [from Boston].
These are the remaining games on the Raptors’ regular season schedule:
Date
Opponent
Result
Feb 27
at Phoenix
L
Mar 1
at Dallas
L
Mar 3
at Houston
L
Mar 6
vs Miami
L
Mar 8
vs Utah
L
Mar 11
at Philadelphia
L
Mar 13
vs Detroit
?
Mar 15
vs Indiana
?
Mar 16
at Charlotte
?
Mar 20
vs Charlotte
?
Mar 22
vs LA Clippers
?
Mar 25
vs Milwaukee
?
Mar 27
vs Oklahoma City
?
Mar 29
vs Chicago
?
Apr 1
at Orlando
?
Apr 4
at New York
?
Apr 5
vs New York
?
Apr 7
vs Atlanta
?
Apr 8
at Indiana
?
Apr 10
vs Washington
?
Apr 12
vs Philadelphia
?
Apr 13
at Washington
?
Apr 15
at Chicago
?
Unless there’s a dramatic re-focus on what it means to be a REAL Team and what it takes to play together like a REAL Team should … i.e. With [i] Cohesive Team Defense, [ii] Shared Team Offense, and a [iii] Unified Battle On the Boards … there will not be many more W’s to be found this season in a toxic wasteland like the Raptors’ locker-room was last night.
CHANGE POINT II – from 07:03-04:41 of the 4th quarter
When the Raptors saw their comeback efforts completely nullified … as their opponents re-established their once 18-pt lead during this span, after seeing it cut to just 9-pts … with the following 5-Man Units on the floor together:
These are the different 5-Man Units which the Jazz and Raptors chose to play in the 4th quarter of yesterday’s game:
SUBSTITUTION CHART
Raptors vs Jazz, 4th Quarter
[Sun Mar 08 2009]
Time
Team
PG
OG
SF
PF
C
Start
End
Diff
12:00
Uta
Knight
Korver
Kirilenko
Harpring
Collins
81
87
81
87
0
TOR
Parker√
Kapono
Graham√
Marion√
Bosh√
10:17
Uta
Williams
81
87
82
89
+1
TOR
√
√
09:40
Uta
Millsap
Okur
82
89
85
89
-3
TOR
√
√
√
09:29
Uta
85
89
87
89
-2
TOR
Calderon
√
√
√
08:21
Uta
87
89
95
93
-4
TOR
√
Bosh√
Bargnani
05:46
Uta
95
93
97
95
0
TOR
Parker
√
√
04:23
Uta
97
95
104
97
-5
TOR
Marion√
√
01:00
Uta
104
97
109
101
-1
TOR
Kapono
√
LEGEND:
Bold – Player Subbed into the game; Italics – Player Shifted to a new position; √ – Solid Rebounder
This is how the Minutes Played [MP], at specific positions, broke down for each player:
Utah
Brevin Knight/PG, 01:43
Jarron Collins/C, 02:20
Matt Harpring/PF, 02:20
———————————–
Deron Williams/PG, 10:17
Kyle Korver/OG, 12:00
Andrei Kirilenko/SF, 12:00
Paul Millsap/PF, 09:40
Mehmet Okur/C, 09:40
Toronto
Jose Calderon/PG, 09:29
Anthony Parker/PG, 02:31
Anthony Parker/OG, 05:46 Jason Kapono/OG, 07:14
Joey Graham/SF, 07:37 Shawn Marion/PF, 03:39 Shawn Marion/SF, 03:23 Chris Bosh/C, 03:39
Chris Bosh/PF, 08:21 Andrea Bargnani/C, 08:21
————————–
Key Utah Possession Outcomes during the final 01:35 of the 4th Q
01:35 Deron Williams Made 22-ft Jumpshot [P & R/P isolation vs Switch by Bargnani/checking MIllsap]
01:00 Deron Williams Maked 1 FT [fouled by Bargnani, P & R/P isolation vs Switch by Bargnani/checking Kirilenko]
00:31 Mehmet Okur Made Layup [P & R isolation vs Switch by Bosh/checking Okur and Bargnani failed to Rotate-to-Help Calderon vs Okur]
—————————–
If the Raptors would have used a combination of the following 6 players, instead:
Calderon/PG
Parker/OG or PG [solid Rebounder/Defender at the PG spot]
Graham/OG or SF [solid Rebounder/Defender at the OG or SF spot]
Marion/PF or SF [solid Rebounder/Defender at the PF or the SF spot]
Mensah-Bonsu/PF [solid Rebounder/Defender at the PF spot]
Bosh/C [solid Rebounder/Defender at the C spot]
during the final 06:00 minutes, the outcome would have been different for the home team.
As long as the Raptors continue to assemble a roster of players like this and then use them in the way they are right now … which is how they’ve operated for much of this disappointing season to-date … they will continue to come up short on a consistent basis against the High End Teams in this league.
Despite what others might think … the Raptors are NOT repeatedly losing games this season on account of how Jose Calderon and/or Chris Bosh are performing at the Point Guard spot and the Center position, respectively.
They are losing games on account of what’s happening on the floor when:
1. Chris Boshis NOT at the Center position;
2. Jose Calderon, or Anthony Parker,is NOT at the Point Guard position; and,
3. Jason Kapono is NOT sitting on the bench … beside Andrea Bargnani [with Roko Ukic, Marcus Banks, Jake Voskuhl, Jermaine O'Neal, Will Solomon, Hassan Adams, and Nathan Jawai], from an effective Rebounding & Team Defense perspective.
—————————-
PS. FWIW, you can decide for yourself who you think SHOULD bare Most of The Responsibility for this … i.e. Sam Mitchell, Jay Triano or BRYAN COLANGELO.
Deciding whether or not this is a good deal for the Raptors is a moot point.
Jermaine O’Neal is now a member of the Miami Heat, joined by Jamario Moon and the Rights to a Future 1st Round [Lottery Protected] Selection [slotted for the 2010 NBA Draft]; while Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks are bound for Toronto.
From a personnel standpoint, this is what the deal means for the respective teams:
MIAMI
TORONTO
Anthony, J
Beasley, M [2008/No. 1]
Blount, M
Chalmers, M
Cook, D
Diawara, Y
Haslem, U
Jones, J
Magloire, J
Moon, J
O’Neal, J [$21 M/yr, expires 2010]
Quinn, C
Wade, D [2003/No. 5]
Wright, D
2010 1st Rd Draft Pick [#15-30]
Banks, M
Bargnani, A [2006/No. 1]
Bosh, C [2003/No. 4]
Calderon, J
[Delfino, C-?]
Graham, J
Humphries, K
Jawai, N
Kapono, J
Marion, S [$17 M/yr, expires 2009]
Parker, A
Solomon, W
Ukic, R
Voskuhl, J
$3 M to Buy a Draft Pick
Spoelstra, E
Triano, J
Riley, P
Colangelo, B
You can decide for yourself which of the two rosters you’d prefer to have going forward from here.
This corner would choose Miami’s.
From a Raptors’ perspective, however, the immediate question is this:
If this team still has designs on qualifying for the playoffs …
QUESTION ONE
What would be their most effective line-up for the remainder of this season?
ANSWER
Although everything these eyes have read in print, thus far, has suggested that OPTION 1 [below], is the way in which the Raptors should/will line up vs Cleveland, Wednesday evening:
OPTION 1
STARTERS: 1 Calderon + 2 Parker + 3 Marion + 4 Bosh + 5 Bargnani
KEY BENCH SUBS: Ukic, Kapono, Graham, Voskuhl
RESERVES: Banks, Solomon, Jawai
OTHERS: Humphries [injured]
OPTION 2
STARTERS: 1 Calderon + 2 Parker + 3 Graham + 4 Marion + 5 Bosh
KEY BENCH SUBS: Ukic, Kapono, Bargnani
RESERVES: Banks, Solomon, Jawai, Voskuhl
OTHERS: Humphries [injured]
OPTION 3
STARTERS: 1 Calderon + 2 Kapono + 3 Graham + 4 Marion + 5 Bosh
KEY BENCH SUBS: Ukic, Parker, Bargnani
RESERVES: Banks, Solomon, Jawai, Voskuhl
OTHERS: Humphries [injured]
this corner does not subscribe to that philosophy.
OPTION 2 or 3 is actually the better way for the Raptors to go forward from here, if they sincerely hope to make a run towards the playoffs this season.
QUESTION TWO
What are the reasons for this?
ANSWER
* Chris Bosh’s best-fit position, in the NBA, is the #5/C-spot.
* Shawn Marion’s best-fit position, in the NBA, is the #4/PF-spot.
* Joey Graham’s best-fit position, in the NBA, is the #3/SF-spot.
* Anthony Parker is a capable #2/OG and a Back-up #1/PG, in the NBA, when he doesn’t have to defend & rebound for Jason Kapono as well.
* Jose Calderon’s best-fit position, in the NBA, is the Starting #1/PG-spot.
* Andrea Bargnani’s best-fit role with this collection of teammates is to come off the bench … as a sub for either Bosh [#5] or Marion [#4] … where his Defensive & Rebounding limitations can be minimized, while he becomes the Offensive focal point of the team’s 2nd Unit.
If the Raptors shift into a base 4 OUT/1 In alignment … with Chris Bosh as their Center … they can effectively accommodate The Matrix [i.e. Offensively, Defensively and in terms of Rebounding] while playing towards the individual strengths of their best players, at their best-fit positions, in the NBA.
Let’s hope the Raptors’ braintrust has the BASKETBALL ACUMEN it takes to figure this out before too long and the remainder of the season slips away.
There are many different ways to assess the performance of a player or a team, in general, in a basketball game.
One of the simpliest is this:
1. Use a traditional Box Score.
2. Count Rebounds [Reb], Assists [Ast], Steals [Stl], Blocked Shots [BS] and Points Scored [Pts] as “Positives”.
3. Count Missed FGAs [FGA-FGM], Missed FTAs [FTA-FTM], Turnovers [TO] and Personal Fouls [PF] as “Negatives”.
4. Do NOT weight any of the individual statistical categories in an unique way.
5. Add the “Positives” and the “Negatives” together for that specific game.
6. Refer to this “Composite” number as a form of “Simple Plus/Minus” [SPM] which reflects each player’s tangible contribution to that specific game, relative to one another.
7. Compare each player’s and each team’s SPM for this specific game.
———————————
When you take a look at the Box Score for last night’s Raptors vs Grizzlies game, as an example, and examine it in this way, this is what you will find:
There were only 3 players for the Raptors whose raw performance numbers [i.e. SPM] indicate that they made a positive contribution overall to their team’s effort and at least held their own against their counterparts for the Grizzlies:
1. Jamario Moon [+17, MP/28]
2. Jose Calderon [+12, MP/36]
3. Joey Graham [+9, MP/26].
When different NBA Analysts state that there are certain players on the Raptors who are being used incorrectly, or are better basketball players than many casual NBA fans might realize, this is the type of basic statistical evaluation upon which these assessments are based.
Although rudimentary game stats like SPM do not always tell the whole truth about how a player or a team actually performed in a specific match-up, they can certainly be helpful in this regard and allow a casual fan to increase his/her understanding of both Effectiveness & Efficiency in a NBA game.
If you watched last night’s Raptors/Grizzlies contest, either live or on videotape delay …
Were you able to tell at the time that Moon, Calderon and Graham were the 3 best players for Toronto?
… and that:
1. Andrea Bargnani [0, MP/31]
2. Jake Voskuhl [0, MP/2]
3. Roko Ukic [+1, MP/16]
4. Anthony Parker [+2, MP/40]
5. Jason Kapono [+4, MP/30]
6. Jermaine O’Neal [+5, MP/32]
might have been their 6 worst?
If not … then maybe next time you will see a few things in a slightly different light.
Watching a game like this one, last night, lays bare many of the problems with the Raptors’ organization, in comparison with an outfit like the Lakers.
The next BIG game on the NBA schedule happens this evening, in Boston, between the Lakers and the Celtics … and the Showtime.v2.crew was clearly in a Resting/Conservation State for last night’s encounter with the Raptors.
Despite the fact that Misters Gasol, Bryant and Odom played 44, 37 and 33 minutes, respectively, in no way were the Lakers’ three best players in last night’s game pushed to give their maximum effort. In reality, the Lakers cruised through much of this game, i.e. just doing enough to get buy … despite the absence of Andrew Bynum and the fact they were trailing on the scoreboard until well into the 4th quarter … with 11 players seeing action altogether, 10 of them for at least 8 minutes, and 9 of those for a minimum of 13:52 [i.e. Josh Powell].
When the game needed to be won, however … in the final 4 minutes of the 4th quarter … Kobe & Co. simply put their collective foot on the gas, and accelerated away from the Raptors.
Whoever thought that the Raptors’ player roster heading into this season would be good enough to compete with a LEGITIMATE CONTENDER for the NBA Title, like the LA Lakers:
PLAYER ROSTER TO BEGIN THE
2008-2009 NBA SEASON
Pos
RAPTORS
LAKERS
Starters
PG
OG
SF
PF
C
Jose Calderon
Anthony Parker
Jamario Moon
Chris Bosh
Jermaine O’Neal
=
=
Derek Fisher Kobe Bryant
Lamar Odom
Pau Gasol
Andrew Bynum
=
√√
√
=
√
Key Bench Subs
PG
PG/OG
SF/OG
PF
C/PF
Will Solomon
Roko Ukic
Jason Kapono
Kris Humphries
Andrea Bargnani
=
√
Jordan Farmar
Sasha Vujacic
Trevor Ariza
Vlad Radmanovic
Chris Mihm
√
√
√
=
Reserves
SF/OG
PF/SF
Hassan Adams
Joey Graham
=
Luke Walton
Josh Powell
√
=
Extras
PF/C
G/F
G/F
Nathan Jawai
DJ Mbenga
Sun Yue
Koby Karl
√
√
√
was simply looking at the situation with their Eyes Wide Shut, including the Raptors’ President/GM, Bryan Colangelo.
The stark reality is that this Raptors’ team has only Andrea Bargnani [No. 1/2006] and Nathan Jawai [No. 41/2008] to show from the last 3 NBA Drafts [i.e. 2008, 2007 & 2006], and precious few tangible assets that are coveted by other organizations across the League upon which it can realistically hope to build a solid franchise for years to come.
After fielding a competitive roster a year ago which looked like this:
Sam Mitchell, Alex English, Mike Evans, Jay Triano
————————————————
Ford-TJ, Parker-A, Delfino-C, Moon-J & Bosh-C
————————————————
Calderon-J, Kapono-J, Graham-J, Bargnani-A & Nesterovic-R
————————————————
Martin-D, Garbajosa-J, Baston-M, Humphries-K, Brezic-P,
12 months later … the Raptors currently have a 19-32/.373 W-L record, are in last place in the Atlantic Division, are in 14th place overall in the Eastern Conference [out of 15 teams], and have an Interim Head Coach, Jay Triano, who has actually been a member of their coaching staff since the days of Lenny Wilkens.
Due to the way in which MLSE chooses to operate its pro sports franchises – please see the Toronto Maple Leafs, as a prime example – there is absolutely ZERO ["0"] chance that Raptors’ President/GM [Mr. Colangelo] will be the one who takes full responsibility [and the fall] for this sorry situation.
The best that Raptors fans everywhere can hope for now …
* With Jose Calderon on the shelf yet again with his recurring hamstring injury
* With Chris Bosh on the shelf now with a sprained right knee
* With Kris Humphries on the shelf with a broken fibula
and,
* With an oft-injured $21 Million per year player like Jermaine O’Neal on the books, in the first place, until the summer of 2010
… is that he [Mr. Colangelo] doesn’t panic and, instead, makes a worthwhile transaction or two during this next off-season, in and around the 2009 NBA Draft and the UFA signing period.
The current season for the Raptors is now officially a Lost Cause.
Now that the Raptors [18-28] have finally discovered what their bestavailable line-up is, tonight’s match-up vs New Jersey [20-25] fits into the category of a benchmark game for the Dinos.
If the Raptors are going to make a belated run for the 8th playoff spot in the EC, they will need to get games like this one, on the road versus one of the five teams ahead of them in the standings, i.e. Milwaukee, New Jersey, New York, Charlotte and Chicago.
Raptors
Nets
STARTERS
Calderon [PG]
Parker [OG/PG]
Jamario Moon [SF/OG]
Andrea Bargnani [PF, will check BL]
Chris Bosh [C, will check RA]
Devin Harris [PG
Wince Carter [OG]
Bobby Simmons [SF]
Ryan Anderson [PF, will check AB]
Brook Lopez [C, will check CB]
KEY BENCH SUBS
Jason Kapono [OG/SF]
Joey Graham [SF/OG/PF]
Jermaine O”Neal [C/PF]
Roko Ukic [PG
Keyon Dooling [PG/OG]
Jarvis Hayes [SF/PF/OG]
Josh Boone [PF/C]
Chris Douglas-Roberts [SF/OG/PG]
Trenton Hassell [SF/OG]
Eduardo Najera [PF/SF]
RESERVES
Will Solomon [PG]
Jake Voskuhl [C/PF]
Nathan Jawai [PF/C]
Maurice Ager [G/F]
COACH
Jay Triano
Lawrence Frank
Q1. Where do they have an individual match-up advantage vs New Jersey?
A1. Only in the section with the bolded letters listed above.
If O’Neal dramatically out-performs Josh Boone, the Raptors can win this game going away.
If not … it will be the Nets that prevail in what should be a hum-dinger of a contest.
PG – Calderon; OG – Parker; SF – Moon; PF – Bargnani; C – Bosh
KEY BENCH SUBS
PG – Parker; OG – Kapono; SF – Graham; PF/C – O’Neal
which [i] utilizes a versatile veteran player like Anthony Parker in the role of principal Back-up PG, to Jose Calderon, [ii] shifts Jermaine O’Neal to the bench, as a Back-up Big, in relief of Chris Bosh [C] and Andrea Bargnani [PF]; and, [iii] keeps at least one of Jamario Moon [SF/OG] or Joey Graham [SF/OG] on the floor, at all times, in their proper positions
… the Dinos are 2-0.
What’s the reason for this?
Although victories against the imploding Bulls [Fri Jan 23] and the down-trodden Kings should never be confused with putting up a meaningful W against a High End Team in the NBA, there are instructive lessons to be learned from a game like last night’s:
PLAYER
MP
RB
AST
TO
PTS
POINT GUARDS
Calderon
Parker
Ukic
Solomon
27:22
12:04
06:45
01:49
1
2
1
0
8
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
16
4
5
2
SUB-TOTAL
4
10
1
27
WINGS
Parker
Moon
Graham
Kapono
26:48
17:42
30:18
21:12
5
2
6
0
5
1
1
1
2
0
1
0
7
5
4
4
SUB-TOTAL
13
8
3
20
BIGS
Bosh
Bargnani
O’Neal
Voskuhl
37:30
32:35
22:17
01:49
8
7
10
1
1
0
2
0
4
2
3
0
31
24
11
0
SUB-TOTAL
26
3
9
66
RAPTORS TOTAL
43
21
13
113
KINGS TOTAL
32
20
12
97
Raptors Comparison
+11
+1
-1
+16
When the Raptors’ PG rotation limits their TO’s to only 1 per game, and emphasizes the useful size this team can now put on the floor … at each of the five positions … the Raptors become a solid team in the Eastern Conference, fueled by the Interior scoring of Chris Bosh, the Perimeter scoring of Andrea Bargnani & Jose Calderon, and the COLLECTIVE REBOUNDING ABILITIES of Chris Bosh [B], Andrea Bargnani [B], Jermaine O’Neal [B], Jamario Moon [W], Joey Graham [W], and Anthony Parker [W & PG].
=======================
Despite the difficult start the Raptors have had this season, thus far, what Bryan Colangelo [President/GM] needs to do right now with THIS team … which is playing THIS way, with THIS line-up … is sit tight, refrain from making any major trades and, then, pick-up 2 additional young rotation players in the 2009 NBA Draft, as a positive step towards gradually building a High End Team in the NBA.
———-
PLEASE NOTE:
Those vocal members of the on-line community who could not SEE – before the fact – how it would be possible for a player like Anthony Parker to succeed as a high calibre Back-up PG, in the NBA, need to re-evaluate their level of expertise.