khandor’s sports blog

Unfortunately, it’s articles and season forecasts like this …

No time to waste? Fast-forward through the 2009-2010 season
Surprise Team

They stand a far better chance of holding a UN summit than the Larry O’Brien trophy. But the Raptors, who speak more languages than Berlitz, will throw a memorable season-long going-away party for Chris Bosh. Six new players will figure into the rotation, which raises the possibility of a chaotic first few months. But everyone on the roster has a specific role. Ballhandling by Jose Calderon. Outside shooting by Andrea Bargnani. Rebounding by Reggie Evans. Toughness by Jarret Jack. Scoring off the dribble by Hedo Turkoglu. Young bounce by DeMar DeRozan. Defense by … um, oh well. You won’t fall in love with any one player, but you’ll fall in like with several. Plus, Bosh is playing for money. They’ll finish top-6 in the East, make the playoffs, pull a first-round surprise and then reach for a hanky when Bosh goes off to … drum roll … Miami.

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that consistently get it wrong/backwards, when it comes to, “How to properly evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of a NBA team,” considering the three main phases of the game: 1. Defense, 2. Rebounding, and 3. Offense.

Instead of including these five [5] simple words in the middle of this paragraph … regarding the Raptors’ collective inability to get stops at crucial times in games played this season, against quality opponents … and surrounding them with 140+ words about the:

- International flavour of the roster
- roster make-over this summer [with 9 new faces on-board]
- roles filled by only 6 players [in a game that needs, at least, 8-9]
- team’s offensive capabilities, i.e. ballhandling, shooting and scoring
- team’s infusion of toughness
- expectation to qualify for the playoffs and win a 1st Round series
- the possible departure of the team’s lone All-Star player

what Shaun Powell should have done is LEAD with it … since Defense and Rebounding are so much more important to a NBA team’s actual success or failure [as opposed to Offense, rumours and/or W-L predictions].

The teams that finish toward the top of the standings in this league, year-after-year, are the ones which perform the best in these two specific areas of the game, irrespective of the particular tools used to measure them, e.g. Points Differential, Points Allowed, Defensive Efficiency Ratings, Rebounding Differential, Rebounding Percentages and Ratings [etc.].

When any so-called “NBA analyst” uses a 30:1, like this, in her/his description of the prospects for a certain team [between the words devouted to "Offense and Others Things" vs "Defense and Rebounding"] what s/he’s really showing you is that s/he does NOT understand how the game works at this level of competition. 

The only people the Raptors are going to surprise this season are those who have yet to read the work of individuals like David Berri, John Hollinger, Brad Doolittle & Kevin Pelton, Wayne Winston … and yours truly.

When the bell finally tolls …

Statistics do a number on Raptors
An illustration: when Parker, Bosh and Jose Calderon were on the court together without Bargnani last year, they played nine points above average. With Bargnani thrown into the mix, they dropped to four points below average.

“I can’t explain why that is, but it is a dramatic swing,” Winston says. “This is concrete evidence that he isn’t helping the team. It’s important that they know that if he plays a lot of minutes and does not improve, they’ll win fewer games.”

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As regular readers of this space can attest, this is an observation which was made, repeatedly, by yours truly throughout the 2008-2009 season … and going even further back than that … based on Basketball Acumen, specific situational stats and Possession Outcome Charts, to the consternation of some Raptors fans obsessed with an individual player’s seasonal ”game stat averages” [i.e. basic and advanced] and/or drunk on the Kool-Aid distributed by the organization.

At the end of the day …

1. Those being truly ‘objective’ in their analysis and criticism of the Raptors and Andrea Bargnani have correctly identified his individual ’strengths and weaknesses’ and his ‘negative effect’ on the performance of the team, on the whole.

2. This year’s final EC standings are going to be very tight between the No. 6 and No. 12 positions and, although the Raptors should be in the mix the entire way, there is little indication to this point that they will be a better team than Atlanta, Washington, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, Charlotte, New York and Indiana … following the Big 3 of Boston, Cleveland and Orlando.

3. “The proof of the pudding is in the eating.”  - Anonymous

Finally … a stats guru speaks who is at least on the right track.

How stats apply to individual match-ups for elite level NBA coaches
WW: Tracy McGrady is a player who has never helped his team as much as people thought. Allen Iverson — for one or two years he was really good.

The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.

Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.

(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)

There’s a bunch of guys like that.

Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)

Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.

HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t. 

WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.

But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.

It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.

If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.

Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright.  He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible. 

Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.

Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.

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THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.

Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!

PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play?  Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.

PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.

PPPS. Btw … What Wayne Winston had to say in this piece about there being no distinction necessary between the use of players like Brandon Bass [#4/PF] and Dirk Nowitzki [#5/C], on the court together, regardless of their position, and the effect/thinking of Mike D’Antoni, just happens to be wrong.