khandor’s sports blog

If you take a closer look at two plays from last night’s game between Milwaukee and Washington:

i. At the 0:13 mark of the video clip … when a clear travel violation by JaVale McGee is not called by the Center Official, who is looking directly at the play;

ii. At the 1:07 mark of the video clip … when a highly questionable travel violation by Roger Mason is called by the Trail Official, despite the Lead Official, who is looking directly at the play, as well, making no call whatsoever:

you should be able to see that what was said earlier this season by Mark Cuban was an accurate description of the current state of officiating in the NBA, despite the League Office stating otherwise.

Where does your favourite team rank at the halfway point in the regular season schedule?

Related:

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

What is really at stake in tonight’s Raptors vs Wizards match-up?

This is what the current standings look like in the NBA.

12. Toronto Raptors, 7-16, .304
13. Washington Wizards, 4-18, .182

Given that these 2 teams have already played each other one time this season:

Game 1, Tue Jan 10, in Washington, [Toronto, L]

and that they will be playing 2 more times after this evening:

Game 2, Fri Feb 03, in Toronto
Game 3, Mon Feb 06, in Washington
Game 4, Sun Apr 01, in Toronto

… there is actually more than a good chance that the loser of tonight’s game will eventually finish this season as one of the 5 worst teams in the league and, therefore, secure a relatively high selection in the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery.

To wit …

If you happen to be a die-hard Raptors fan who:

i. Is happy that Toronto had the good fortune to acquire Jonas Valanciunas [C] with the No. 5 [overall] Selection in the 2011 NBA Draft Lottery;

and,

ii. Actually wants to see your favourite team be able to eventually develop into a legitimate contender to win a League Championship, sometime in the not-too-distant future;

then, you best be cheering hard this evening for a victory … by the visiting Wizards … so Toronto actually improves its chances of adding Harrison Barnes [G/F] to its roster next season, as well.

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PS. As difficult as it may seem, sometimes in life it really is most important that one goes “backwards”, temporarily, so that one can eventually go “forwards”, again, in a way which authentically significant.

According to certain basketball-related web sites and so-called “stats gurus” who operate them, the work of Flip Saunders has not been the main source of the different problems experienced by the Washington Wizards during his tenure with the team:

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Flip Gets the Blame … Again

The Wizards are really, really bad this year. Because of the team’s lack of success, it made a desperation move and fired its coach, Flip Saunders. But Saunders wasn’t the problem. The problem is that the team is riddled with bad players. And the team’s management has failed to remedy this problem by holding on to the bad players. Thus, Washington will continue to be bad in the absence of Saunders unless its management starts making good decisions. Unfortunately firing Flip doesn’t signal that the management understands this. Flip has been fired several times thanks to unrealistic expectations. While good moves can make a franchise good, unrealistic expectations seem to lead to bad franchises and fired coaches.

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This is simple hogwash.

A more accurate interpretation of what has actually happened to the different teams coached by Flip Saunders, to this point in his career as a coach in the NBA, runs along the following lines:

i. Saunders’ Minnesota Timberwolves did not go further in the Western Conference Playoffs than the collective talent level of the players on their roster allowed;

ii. Saunders’ Detroit Pistons did not go further in the Eastern Conference Playoffs than the collective talent level of the players on their roster allowed; and,

iii. Saunders’ Washington Wizards have not finished higher in the Eastern Conference than the collective talent of the players on their roster has allowed;

primarily because he was, and is, not an authentic elite level basketball coach … with the ability to extract MORE wins from his team than just their collective talent level will produce, relative to their peers … in spite of being a very knowledgeable basketball coach, in terms of X’s and O’s.

Although the overall talent level of the players on the Wizards’ roster this year is not where it needs to be in order to compete effectively for a Top 4 position in the Eastern Conference,

Initial Assessment of Team Rosters in the NBA’s Eastern Conference

there is actually more than enough NBA-level talent on their roster at-present to allow this team to compete effectively for a lower tier playoff position … if it is coached by an authentic elite level practicioner, e.g. Phil Jackson, Pat Riley, Gregg Popovich, Doc Rivers, Rick Carlisle, Stan Van Gundy, Nate McMillan, George Karl, Jeff Van Gundy, etc., who has the vision, acumen and ability to inculcate discipline to the individual players on his roster within the framework of the team.

Unfortunately for Wizards’ fans moving forward – at least, in the short term future – it is also the case that the team’s new interim head coach, Randy Wittman, does not fit properly into this important category [i.e. an authentic elite level basketball coach], as well … and Ernie Grunfeld [GM] will most likely need to be held accountable for repeatedly making poor managerial decisions like this one.

When you look at the early schedule for the Washington Wizards what you should see:

is that tonight’s home game against the Toronto Raptors actually qualifies as an almost “must-win” situation … at least, if they are going to be able to avoid a prolonged losing streak to begin the season.

If both teams are healthy for this game:

then, the Wizards will have a solid opportunity to get a W, depending on the work done by Flip Saunders vs Dwane Casey.

Related:

Wizards need more than just better talent, need culture change

There are three main phases to the game of basketball:

i. Offense;
ii. Defense; and,
iii. Rebounding.

Developing an accurate understanding of the overall NBA talent which exists on the roster for each team at the beginning of the season is a fundamental aspect of properly evaluating the day-to-day goings-on across the league over the course of the season.

INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF TEAM ROSTERS IN NBA’S EASTERN CONFERENCE [as of Sun-Dec-25-2011]

At this point of the NBA regular season schedule, each team has played at least 30 games.

Given the history of the NBA … and what it actually takes to be able to win 4 consecutive best-of-seven games series in the playoffs … there is now a strong possibility that the 2010-2011 League Championship will eventually be won by 1 of the 8 teams shown above in “neon green”.

To everyone who takes the time to visit this little corner of the blogosphere …

Happy New Year!

The specific take from this corner on the recent 3 team trade involving Washington, Orlando and Phoenix looks like this:

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Comparing the “before” and “after” rotations for each team …

Means that:

The WIZARDS … should be able to improve their performance immediately with the introduction of a solid, veteran player like Rashard Lewis, and the re-introduction of a 2nd solid, veteran player like Josh Howard – who has fully recovered from the knee injury which he suffered last season – into their regular rotation.

The SUNS … should be able to improve performance immediately with the introduction of solid, veteran players like Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus into their regular rotation; while ALSO building for their future with the addition of a 1st Round Draft Pick from Orlando.

The MAGIC … are in a whole pile of trouble going forward with their present collection of mis-matched players who are now under-sized and poorly suited to Defend and Rebound in a way which is consistent with the performance of a Top Tier team in the NBA. 

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Contrary to what you may read elsewhere today, re: the 2 blockbuster trades completed this past weekend by Orlando …

The demise of the Magic did not actually begin during:

* The 2008-2009 off season when they made the decision not to re-sign Hedo Turkoglu [SF-PF] to the type of UFA contract he was seeking, at the time, and, instead, chose to acquire Vince Carter [OG-SF] and Ryan Anderson [PF-C], from the New Jersey Nets, in exchange for Courtney Lee [OG] and Tony Battie [PF-C];

nor,

* The early stages of this current season when Orlando gradually began to lose ground to the 2 Big Dogs in the East, i.e. Boston and Miami, by losing 6 of their last 7 games.

The Magic’s actual demise began during:

* The 2nd half of the 2009-2010 regular season when Otis Smith and Stan Van Gundy gradually lost their shared vision of their team and began to juggle around the highly specialized roles of Vince Carter [down], Mickael Pietrus [down], Ryan Anderson [down], Rashard Lewis [PF], JJ Redick [up] and Matt Barnes [up] within Orlando’s regular rotation;

and, then,

* The 2009-2010 playoffs when Stan Van Gundy & Co. made the ill-advised decision to use the following rotation in their playoff series against the Boston Celtics, as opposed to the one which they SHOULD have used:

Unfortunately for Orlando, this state of confusion then continued into this season’s training camp, when Stan Van Gundy stated that the Magic would begin to use Rashard Lewis at both the PF/#4 and the SF/#3 positions this year, in an effort to improve their offensive efficiency against a defense like the Celtics which had effectively neutralized the Magic’s 3PT-shooting. 

When a head coach makes poor/wrong personnel decisions regarding his regular rotation it is only a matter of time before the environment around his team becomes completely toxic, and the individual players on the roster can no longer perform to the best of their abilities. 

MISSING OUT ON LONG TERM GAIN WHILE ACHIEVING SHORT TERM OBJECTIVES

As of Friday, November 19, 2010 the Raptors’ W-L Record was 4-9/.308, which placed them firmly in the bottom section of the Eastern Conference Standings.

On the heels of consecutive home court victories, over the Philadelphia 76ers and the Houston Rockets, the Raptors then made 2 related trades on Saturday, November 20, 2010, which saw them acquire Jerryd Bayless [PG] and Peja Stojakovic [SF], from the New Orleans Hornets, in exchange for Jarrett Jack [PG], David Andersen [C] and Marcus Banks [PG].

On Sunday, November 21, 2010 the Raptors defeated the visiting Boston Celtics [102-101].

On Wednesday, Novmeber 24, 2010 the Raptors defeated the visiting Philadelphia 76ers, once again, to extend their winning streak to 4 games.

On Friday, November 26, 2010 the Raptors were defeated by the Celtics [101-110], in Boston; while, simultaneously, Ed Davis [PF] was making his debut with the Erie Bayhawks of the NBA’s D-League. Also, it was during this game that Reggie Evans [PF] was lost to injury with a broken foot.

On Sunday, November 28, 2010 the Raptors were resoundingly defeated at the ACC by the visiting Atlanta Hawks; while, simultaneously, Ed Davis was playing his 2nd game with the Bayhawks [vs the Fort Wayne Mad Ants].

Then, in last night’s game, against Washington [at the ACC], the Raptors routed the last place Wizards [127-108] … with both Jerryd Bayless and Ed Davis in their line-up for the first time this season.

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While there have been plenty of so-called “NBA Analysts/Experts” – i.e. including, both, “stats gurus” and non-”stats gurus”- voice their opinion, thus far this season, that the Raptors might have one of the worst rosters in the entire league and, as a result, would most likely finish with one of the worst W-L records, yours truly has not been one of them.

Instead, what has been said in this corner is that:

* In an effort to obtain the rights to one of the Top 3 Selections in the 2011 NBA Draft, what the Raptors should do this season is maintain the status quo, i.e. by retaining the roster that began the 2010-2011 regular season, which includes making no significant trades, keeping Reggie Evans in their regular rotation and keeping Ed Davis out of their line-up for a 12 month period from the date of his initial torn meniscus.

By following this specific course of action, this particular season, the Raptors would give themselves the best opportunity possible to add a legitimate “Top 3 Player” to their future roster which, in turn, would then allow them to make a gradual climb up the standings in the Eastern Conference … over a period of consecutive years … with the ultimate destination being the upper echelon [i.e. Top 4] and achieving full-blown status as a perennial contender for the League Championship.

OTOH …

* If what the Raptors are really trying to do this season is [i] improve their chances of making the playoffs and [ii] sustain their current status as a “competitive” but far-from-top-notch franchise in the middle section of NBA that [iii] achieves an annual profit for its ownership group, then, what the Raptors should do this year is not maintain the status quo, i.e. by upgrading the roster which began the 2010-2011 regular season, which includes making a significant trade, or two, removing Reggie Evans from the regular rotation and replacing him with Ed Davis.

By following this specific course of action, this particular season, the Raptors would give themselves the best opportunity to attain their 3 principal short term objectives, while also ensuring that they make negligible progress towards the long term goal of reaching the upper echelon in the Eastern Conference [i.e. Top 4] and achieving full-blown status as a perennial contender for the League Championship.

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While some active participants in the blogosphere have expressed their opinion that the acquisitions of Bayless and Stojakovic would most likely “downgrade” the Raptors’ current roster, yours truly has made the observation that this would, in fact, not be the case at all … and that, in fact, these changes would most likely bring about the opposite effect for Toronto this season.

For the remainder of this season it should prove to be very interesting to keep track of how Toronto actually performs in each of the following situational categories:

and what the eventual effects will be on their team’s overall development during the course of the next several seasons.

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“Luck is the residue of design.” – Branch Rickey

If the respective line-ups for this evening’s tilt between the Raptors [6-11] and the Wizards [5-11] actually end up looking like this:

… pending: i. The “health status” of several players for both teams who, either, may or may not play in this specific game, e.g. John Wall, Al Thornton and Peja Stojakovic; and, ii. The possible “league suspension status” of Hilton Armstrong, i.e. Despite fighting spirit, Wizards still looking for a road win … 

then Toronto will have a solid opportunity to emerge with the W.

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Published Wagering Line

Opened: Toronto -4.5/-104

Current: Toronto -4.5/-108 [as of 1:00 PM today]

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Washington has yet to win an away game so far this season …

Thu Oct 28 @ Orlando, 83-112 [-29]
Sat Oct 30 @ Atlanta, 95-99 [-4]
Fri Nov 05 @ New York, 91-112 [-21]
Sat Nov 13 @ Chicago, 96-103 [-7]
Wed Nov 17 @ Boston, 83-114 [-31]
Sun Nov 21 @ Detroit, 110-115 [-5]
Thu Nov 25 @ Atlanta, 96-116 [-20]
Mon Nov 29 @ Miami, 94-105 [-11]

with only 1 of their 8 losses registered at 4 points or less.

Although the Wizards were able to dominate the Raptors in their prior meeting earlier this year – during which John Wall also did not play – expect Toronto to play with more energy this time around, on their home court and with the insertion of Ed Davis into their line-up, as back-up Big Man coming off the bench.

KSS Prognostication

With Washington having very few individual mis-matches to exploit, expect Toronto to win this game outright and cover the number [-4.5].