khandor’s sports blog

Where does your favourite team rank at the halfway point in the regular season schedule?

Related:

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

In the immediate aftermath of the 2010 NBA Draft Lottery, yours truly identified Gordon Hayward [6-8, 207] … 

It’s important to be perfectly clear about one thing … [Jun 25 2011]

as someone who would eventually be considered one of the very best selections made that night.

Although it has taken him almost 9 months to get comfortable in the NBA environment, Mr. Hayward’s performance last night … against no-less an opponent than Kobe Bryant & Co.:

Utah Jazz 86
Los Angeles Lakers 85
Complete Game Summary

… portends very well for his future development as a “star” player in the league, if he is afforded the opportunity to perform at the Off Guard position, on a consistent basis.

Player Data for Gordon Hayward at basketballvalue.com

As was written in this space earlier this season …

Correct solution for the Jazz’s current problem [Mar 3 2011]

when the Jazz threw away a highly winnable home game against the Boston Celtics, by refusing to allow Hayward to close it out, while working at the OG position against Ray Allen, in lieue of Raja Bell [i.e. a veteran in steep decline] …

Gordon Hayward has the skill-set to be a terrific, multi-purpose, “Big #2/OG”, for the next 10-15 years …

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Hayward’s shining moment

It was easily the best performance of Hayward’s up-and-down first season that’s included 21 games in which he played and didn’t score. He struggled to learn the offense at first, to the frustration of coach Jerry Sloan and point guard Deron Williams. (Hard to believe that 67 games into his career Hayward is still with the Jazz and Sloan and Williams are gone.) With the Jazz out of the playoff race, new coach Tyrone Corbin has granted Hayward more playing time of late and Hayward has produced four double-digit scoring nights in his past six games.

“It’s getting there,” Hayward said. “Little by little. There’s times when you’re still over-pressing a little bit, but when you’re just aggressive it’s better.”

He held his ground against Bryant, who seemed intent on breaking the rookie into NBA life.

“I think so, a little bit,” Hayward said. “He elbowed me in the second half, and I gave him an elbow in the fourth quarter. We were going at it, competing. It was fun because you grow up watching Kobe doing his thing against everyone else and now you’re kind of out there as a competitor just trying to play as hard as you can against him.”

And that’s what prompted the West comparison — in personality, not performance. He wasn’t that good.

“He’s a humble guy,” Watson said. “At the same time when he gets on the court he’s not going to back down from anybody.”

Bryant said he was “very, very fond” of Hayward.

“He’s a very skilled, all-around player,” Bryant said. “I think he’s going to have a very bright future in this league. He reminds me of a more talented Jeff Hornacek. Jeff couldn’t put the ball on the floor as well as he can.”

Phil Jackson, who rarely even acknowledges rookies, gave serious props to Hayward. Used his full name, pronounced it right and everything.

“I wish Gordon Hayward would have stayed in college and helped Butler last night instead of kicking our butt,” Jackson said.

Instead, the Lakers were on the wrong side of the one thing that went right for Butler’s program this week.

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if he has the opportunity to play for a top notch head coach who believes in his ability to excel at the highest level of competition.

Time will eventually tell, if that specific assessment is accurate, or not.

Going into last night’s game against the Raptors, the Jazz were without the following list of players:

Andrei Kirilenko, SF [starter]
Paul Millsap, PF [starter]
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Ronnie Brice, PG-OG [back-up]
Mehmet Okur, PF-C
Francisco Elson, PF-C

while Toronto was missing:

Andrea Bargnani, C [starter]
Alexis Ajinca, C [back-up]

Once the game began, however, Toronto then lost the services of Amir Johnson/PF [i.e. sprained ankle], at the 3:38 mark of the 1st quarter.

These different personnel losses for both teams certainly made it a very interesting game to watch … especially, the 2nd half, when Toronto:

A. Opened up an 8-point lead [78-70], at the end of the 3rd quarter, after trailing by 2 points at the intermission;

B. Extended its lead to 14 points, at the 8:21 mark of the 4th quarter [86-72];

and, then,

C. Completely collapsed during the last segment of the final frame, by failing to make the proper line-up adjustments, in a timely manner, when the Jazz made the decision to go with an ultra small 5-man unit.

Utah Jazz 96
TORONTO RAPTORS 94
Complete Game Summary

What you should be able to see when you look at the ”Game Flow Chart” for last night’s game, is that:

PART I

1. Utah was out-played badly for the last 1:59 of the 3rd quarter, when they went with a make-shift line-up of:

3 Guards - Watson [PG], Bell [OG] and Hayward [OG-SF]
2 Bigs - Evans [SF-PF] and Fesenko [C] 

against the Raptors’ conventional 5-man unit of:

3 Guards – Bayless [PG-OG], Barbosa [PG-OG] and Weems [OG-SF]
2 Bigs – Dorsey [PF-C] and Davis [PF-C];

and Utah’s deficit went from just 1 point [70-71] to 8 points [70-78].

PART II

1. When the Jazz went with a 4 guard line-up of:

i.e. Watson [PG], Harris [PG], Bell [OG], Miles [OG-SF] and Jefferson [C],

at the 10:26 mark of the 4th quarter,

2. The Raptors chose to keep 2 Bigs in the game for the next 7:47 of action:

10:26-06:09, Evans [PF] and Dorsey [PF-C]
06:09-04:42, Dorsey [PF-C] and Davis [PF-C]
04:42-02:39, Evans [PF] and Davis [PF-C].

3. During his specific phase of the game: 

i. Utah saw its deficit, initially, increased to 14 points [72-86];

and, then,

ii. Utah saw its deficit reduced to only 3 points [88-91];

iii. Toronto only made the decision to respond with a 4 guard line-up, as well, 

i.e. Calderon [PG], Bayless [PG-OG], Weems [OG-SF], DeRozan [OG-SF] and Davis [PF-C]

at the 2:39 mark of the 4th quarter.

4. By this point, however, the momentum of the game had been fundamentally changed, in favour of the Jazz, and it was just a matter of “how” exactly Toronto was going to lose their 12th consecutive game to Utah.

PART III

If you look at the Play-By-Play for the final 8:21 of the 4th quarter, what you should see is that:

Toronto was able to score on only 4 of their last 18 possessions [i.e. 22.2%]

08:21
1 Barbosa, Missed J3
2 Dorsey, Turnover
3 Barbosa, Missed J2; OReb/Barbosa
4 Barbosa, Made J2
5 DeRozan, Missed J2
6 Weems, Missed J2
7 Davis, Missed J2; OReb/Dorsey
8 Dorsey, Missed Tip; OReb/Davis
9 Dorsey, Missed LU
10 DeRozan, Missed J2
11 Weems, Made FT + FT
12 Davis, Missed J2
13 DeRozan, Missed FT + Made FT
14 Calderon, Missed J3

which is 3 for 14 [21.1%]

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02:39
15 Calderon, Missed J3
16 DeRozan, Turnover
17 Calderon, Missed J3
18 Barbosa, Made J3;

which is 1 for 4 [25.0%],

while,

Utah was able to score on 10 of their last 17 possessions [i.e. 58.8%]

08:21
1 Miles, Made J2
2 Miles, Made J2
3 Bell, Missed J3
4 Watson, Made J3
5 Watson, Turnover
6 Harris, Made J3
7 Jefferson, Missed J2
8 Miles, Made J3
9 Miles, Made J3
10 Jefferson, Missed J2

which is 6 for 10 [60.0%]

—————————-

02:39
11 Harris, Made DJ2
12 Miles, Missed DFR; OReb/Jefferson
13 Jeferson, Made Tip
14 Jefferson, Made TAHS
15 Watson, Missed J3
16 Harris, Missed DLU; OReb/Jefferson
17 Jefferson, Made Tip 

which is 4 for 7 [57.1%].

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The key question which Raptors fans should be asking today is:

How come Jay Triano & Co. chose not to use any of the following 5-man units:

PG, Jose Calderon or Jerryd Bayless or Leandro Barbosa [vs Earl Watson]
OG, Sonny Weems or Leandro Barbosa [vs Devin Harris]
SF, DeMar DeRozan [vs Raja Bell] 
PF, Julian Wright or James Johnson [vs CJ Miles]
PF-C, Davis [vs Al Jefferson]

for any part of the final 8:21 of last night’s game?

Thursday, February 10, 2011 will go down in history as a sad day for the National Basketball Association …

as one of the all-time great coaches in the game chose to end his tenure on his own terms. 

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Sloan knew his time had ended

“I had a feeling it was time for me to move,’’ Sloan said at an emotional news conference. “You only have so much energy left and my energy level has dropped off a little bit. I thought about it a few days ago, and it just seemed like this is the time to do it.’’

Facing more than two dozen cameras in the small, packed room at the Jazz’s Salt Lake City practice facility, Sloan’s voice broke as he spoke. The gruff, old coach later reached for a tissue, first to blow his crooked nose and then to dab a tear or two in his left eye, as his longtime right-hand man, assistant head coach Phil Johnson, discussed his own departure from the team.

Sloan’s resignation came one day after his Jazz lost to the Chicago Bulls – the team with which he spent most of his NBA playing career, the only other NBA team he has coached and the team that cost his own two titles.

It also came amid word of long-simmering conflict between Sloan and Deron Williams(notes), the Jazz’s All-Star point guard and current on-court face of the franchise. Sloan admitted he and Williams clashed at halftime of Wednesday’s game – a game in which Williams was charged with three turnovers in the final 1:05 – but tried to downplay the impact of the friction.

“I’ve had confrontation with players since I’ve been in the league,” Sloan said.

Sloan huddled in an office with his assistant coaches, general manager Kevin O’Connor and other Jazz officials after Wednesday’s defeat and didn’t conduct his postgame news conference until more than a half hour later than usual. It was during that meeting the Jazz brass learned of his decision. O’Connor tried hard to talk Sloan and Johnson into staying, and his efforts continued Thursday morning.

“But that didn’t work out either,’’ O’Connor said.

Jazz CEO Greg Miller stressed that “nobody pushed Jerry and Phil out.” “Everyone that was in the room … tried to get (Sloan) to stay,’’ Miller said.

Sloan had been tenured with the same team longer than any other coach or manager in any of America’s four major professional sports leagues, a mantle St. Louis Cardinals skipper Tony La Russa now assumes with his 15 seasons. Sloan’s career coaching record, including his time in Chicago, is 1,221-803, which makes him the third-winningest coach in NBA history in terms of victories. All but 94 of those victories have come with the Jazz.

Ty Corbin, a former Jazz player who has served on Sloan’s staff, gets his first head coaching job while Scott Layden will remain as an assistant coach in Utah. Corbin deemed the day “bittersweet.’’

“I can never thank you guys enough,’’ he told Sloan and Johnson. “I look forward to the opportunity, “but I don’t think this time right now should be about me.’’

The Jazz have reached the playoffs with Williams at the point each of the past four postseasons, but they’ve been eliminated by the Los Angeles Lakers the past three years. Sloan’s previous Jazz teams, led by Hall of Famers John Stockton and Karl Malone, went to the NBA Finals in 1997 and ’98, losing both times to Michael Jordan and the Bulls.

“That’s the only regret I have,’’ Johnson, who do not rule out returning to the franchise in some capacity at a later date.

“Every team loves to win a championship,’’ added Sloan, who keeps in close contact with both Stockton and Malone. “But I think our [’97-98] team laid everything out when we were there.’’

Sloan suggested his coaching days are now done, and he squashed the notion of working for another NBA franchise. “I’m not looking for another job,’’ he said. “My wife will have a job for me when I get home.’’

—————————————————–

Kudos galore to Hall-Of-Fame inductee Jerry Sloan, who did it “his way” from start to finish.

At this point of the NBA regular season schedule, each team has played at least 30 games.

Given the history of the NBA … and what it actually takes to be able to win 4 consecutive best-of-seven games series in the playoffs … there is now a strong possibility that the 2010-2011 League Championship will eventually be won by 1 of the 8 teams shown above in “neon green”.

To everyone who takes the time to visit this little corner of the blogosphere …

Happy New Year!

Unfortunately, by the end of the 4th quarter of this evening’s game …

the Raptors’ W-L record will most likely be 1-3.

———————————–

PS. The currently published wagering line for this game is: Toronto +10.5. Although Raptors fans might want to think about taking their favourite team in this underdog situation what they should do, instead, is stay away from this game completely, given the recent history between these two opponents.

Tom Liston [i.e. a friend of this corner at Raptors Republic] does a solid job introducing the concept of,

“Getting what you pay for in the ultra-competive upper echelon of the NBA,”

for those who might have been hood-winked into drinking the kool-aid produced annually by Maple Leafs Sports and Entertainment Ltd. [MLSE].

—————————————————–

Winners spend well over the tax

Top 10 teams in the league – average spend: $80.3 million
Bottom 10 – average spend: $66.1 million ($63.5 million excluding WAS, NYK & NOH)

That’s almost the equivalent of an extra max player, i.e. $16.8M (if we use the latter figure).

What does MLSE “need” to spend to reach the 50+ win plateau? $76.3 million is the average.

If we exclude OKC and POR that just made 50 wins (and have the luxury of rookie scale contracts – a result a savy drafting), that number goes to $80.2 million.

I’ve got scenarios where I can paint a picture that we’ll be a 3-million-dollar tax team. I’ve got scenarios where we’ll be a 7-million-dollar tax team. And I’ve got scenarios where we’ll be higher than that. – Bryan Colangelo

The eight teams that remain in the playoffs spent an average of $80.0 million this year. And only Atlanta spend less than $75 million.

We can conclude that we likely need to spend in Colangelo’s “higher than that” category to be a contender. I don’t want a 50 win team – I want a contender. Having said that, we are putting together a few ideas on where we may be able to “trade for value” such that we work towards that goal – but MLSE will still have to spend will above the cap.

—————————————————–

This corner would go 1 step further, however, if the Toronto Raptors …

… are truly serious about becoming a legitimate contender for the NBA championship, in the not-too-distant future.

The cold HARSH REALITY is that, in order to accomplish this objective, Toronto will need to add OTHER High End players to their roster, while keeping Chris Bosh, which would then increase their Player Payroll somewhere between $9.0 M [i.e. low end] and $20.0 M, at a minimum.

Given the following FACTS from the 2009-2010 season:

Salary Cap = $58 M [approx.]
Luxury Tax Threshold = $70 M [approx.]

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALISTS

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALISTS

AVERAGE PLAYER PAYROLL FOR PLAYOFF SEMI-FINALISTS = $90 M

To believe anything else is … quite simply … pie in the sky dreaming.

The highlight of a very busy weekend in the world of professional sports?

… which included:

* The 136th running of the Kentucky Derby
* The beginning of the 2nd Round in the NHL Playoffs
* The beginning of the 2nd Round in the NBA Playoffs

What this fine young player from Northern Ireland accomplished Friday, Saturday and Sunday afternoon, on the PGA Tour:

Best get accustomed to seeing his face.

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Golf’s changing of the guard

To see Irishman Padraig Harrington, grinning wider than an Augusta fairway, in his civilian clothes, waiting for McIlroy after the round, throwing a paternal arm around the lad, telling him he’d just crafted “a good bit of stuff”; to see stoic Jim Furyk give him an earnest soul shake by the scorer’s table; to see Phil Mickelson’s caddie, Jim (Bones) Mackay, interrupt a McIlroy press session outside to congratulate the winner; to see Rory himself give the Euro-styled “hands over head” appreciation clap to the crowd … to see all that was to see a golf world embrace the new kid in town, and to read into that the existence of a little Tiger Fatigue would not be the wrong call at all.

Throw in a springtime rebirth for Mickelson – he followed his win at Augusta by beating everyone at Quail Hollow not named “Rory McIlroy,” then gushed about McIlroy to CBS afterward, trumping Tiger’s post-Masters pout – and you have Tiger wondering where he fits in at this party.

3 weeks ago …

You were told in this space that the proper way for the Los Angeles Lakers to solve their problems this season would be to use Kobe Bean Bryant in a specific role:

Solving the Lakers’ problems with the Spurs, Apr 6 2010

Last week …

You were told in this space that the outcome of a playoff series can sometimes be determined by the ability of a team to make the correct game-to-game … and, THEN, in-game … adjustments, based on what its opponent’s specific strengths and weaknesses are and the best possible use of its own personnel:

Making the correct game-to-game adjustments can be THE difference between Winning and Losing in the Playoffs, Apr 23 2010

So much of what can be found on-line today concerning supposedly sound “basketball analysis” is little more than gobbledygook put forth by statistical gurus without a proper understanding of, 

“How the NBA game actually works.”

===================================

Oklahoma City Thunder 87
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 111
Complete Series Info

===================================

The fact is …

1. Sample sizes are rendered virtually meaningless;

2. League-wide averages are rendered virtually meaningless; and,

3. Creating and minimizing individual mis-matches against the best teams in the league – and a particular opponent of high calibre – are absolutely crucial;

 … when it comes to determining accurately which teams, coaches and, therefore, players will advance in the playoffs, or not.

====================================

During the pre-season …

You were told in this space that the 2009-2010 NBA championship would, in all likelihood, be won by 1 of the following 5 teams:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando Magic
Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston Celtics [i.e. depending upon the recovery of Kevin Garnett from injury]

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Los Angeles Lakers
San Antonio Spurs

Nothing which has happened since that time has fundamentally changed that perception. 

Right now …

The 4 best teams in the Eastern Conference are the Cleveland Cavaliers [4-1], Orlando Magic [4-0], Boston Celtics [4-1] and Atlanta Hawks [2-2].

The 4 best teams in the Western Conference are the Los Angeles Lakers [3-2], San Antonio Spurs [3-2], Utah Jazz [3-1] and Phoenix Suns [3-2].

===================================

Barring any further major injuries …

This year’s NBA champions will, in all likelihood, be 1 of the following 3 teams:

Los Angeles Lakers, Phil Jackson [and Mitch Kupchak and Dr. Jerry Buss]
Orlando Magic, Stan Van Gundy [and Otis Smith and Richard DeVos]
San Antonio Spurs, Gregg Popovich [and RC Buford and Peter Holt]

… none of which happens to be the Cleveland Cavaliers with Mike Brown [and Danny Ferry and Daniel Gilbert].

Basketball is the ultimate TEAM Sport … with each player on the court having to be able to function adequately on Offense, on Defense, and in terms of Rebounding, in conjunction with the sound strategic and tactical decision-making skills of an elite level head coach, general manager and owner.

Those who think that basketball can be properly understood by examining the statistical norms, averages, outliers, etc., associated with representative “sample sizes”, “numerical formulas”, and all manner of “efficiency ratings,” are simply wasting their [and your] time.

Basketball is a game of:

I. Acumen;

and,

II. Inches;

… the most important of which are the “approximately 6″ located between the ears of a team’s owner, general manager, head coach and 8-9 regular rotation players.

Related:

Kobe Bryant, Closer to the ground

Every Move Must Have A Purpose