khandor’s sports blog

If you’ve taken the time to read a good portion of what’s been published on this blog to-date, then, you are already familiar with a few simple “facts” about the game of basketball:

[for example]

- it is comprised of 3 distinct main phases, i.e. Defense, Rebounding and Offense

- the 1 of these 3 phases which is the least well-understood, by “fans” and other so-called “expert observers” is Rebounding … followed by Defense … primarily, due to its “central” role and the way it influences the character of an elite level team

- basketball is, fundamentally, a “team” game … in which major success and failure [i.e. winning and losing the championship] are determined, in large part, by the highly specific strengths and weaknesses of the “individual” players and their ability to work “in concert” against a particular opponent

- while statistics, in general, are a terrific tool to help one understand how the game actually works, in isolation, they are not a wholly accurate reflection of reality and, at all times, need to be evaluated critically in the appropriate context

- an examination of highly specific anecdotal evidence is a gateway to developing an accurate understanding of the way in which a championship-winning team operates that is separate and distinct from its competition 

- putting an elite level team together properly is akin to “composing a virtuoso work of art” … moreso, than simplistically “painting by the numbers”

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To wit:

[this is the specific comment which was just submitted by yours truly at the Wages of Wins Journal]

Another Look at Team USA in 2010

Hmmm …

If someone could take the time to explain the reason the previous comment which I left in this thread was removed, it would be appreciated.

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In the interim, let’s try again.

It is a mistake in basketball judgment to think that keeping the 12 players with the highest WP48 numbers is necessarily the best way to construct a championship-winning basketball “team”.

Just because Gerald Wallace’s WP48 number … which [in fact] “fails to reflect a picture of reality” [according to a respected commentor [sic] on this site like Tom Mandel] … is substantially higher than Rudy Gay’s does not mean that simply “replacing Gay with Wallace” is the better way to go, in this case, i.e. with this specific group of players, their expected opposition, and the relatively large group of [at least, somewhat redundant] PG’s still on the active roster [i.e. Curry, Billups, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook], when compared with the sheer number of wing players [i.e. combo OG/SF/PF] with good size, strength, relative quickness - at their respective positions - and the ability to: i. defend, ii. rebound, iii. shoot the ball efficiently from distance, and iv. be high volume scorers, e.g. like Iguodala, Gay and Durant].

When you dissect how a championship-winning team is actually put together, what you will find is that rarely - if ever - is it simply a conglomeration of the 12 players with the highest available WP48 numbers [e.g. Was Charles Barkley a member of the 1984 team? or, Was Isiah Thomas a member of the original Dream Team?] And, the exact reasons for this are rarely - if ever - rooted in the way these specific players performed in lead-up public scrimmage situations.

Unfortunately, numeric-based analysis of basketball which reads like this is what can create a poor image overall for “stats” gurus, in the eyes of elite level coaches the world over.

[Hopefully this comment meets with your approval.]

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Enjoy!

According to Doug Smith, the Toronto/Charlotte component of the 3-team trade initially reported to involve the Raptors, Bobats and Suns has officially been terminated by Michael Jordan:

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Charlotte end of Raptors deal dead

The part of a complex Raptors deal that would have sent Jose Calderon and Reggie Evans to Charlotte is dead, killed by Bobcats owner Michael Jordan according to league sources.

The teams had signed off on the transaction that would have shipped Boris Diaw and Tyson Chandler to Toronto early Monday afternoon – with Chandler being told he was to become a Raptor – before it died later in the day

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The key question then becomes:

Why was it not sufficient for Toronto and Charlotte to simply complete a straight forward 1-for-1 trade involving Boris Diaw [SF/PF] in exchange for Jose Calderon [PG] … which, in a sense, fulfills a positional need for each team, and appears to be doable, from a salary cap perspective … if the other part of the original 3-team transaction is still scheduled to proceed as is [i.e. Turkoglu to Phoenix, in exchange for Barbosa and Jones to Toronto]?

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Could it possibly be the case that the original trade proposal agreed to by Charlotte and Toronto did, in fact, look like this:

To Toronto: Boris Diaw + Tyson Chandler

To Charlotte: Jose Calderon + TPE from Miami

[i.e. requiring the Raptors to send their TPE obtained from Miami to Charlotte in exchange for Tyson Chandler, in a straight forward 2-for-2 transaction]

… and that as Monday’s talks progressed, it was actually Bryan Colangelo who attempted to substitute in some combination of Reggie Evans, Dwayne Jones and/or Marcus Banks, in favour of the TPE part of the equation?

… which is ultimately what caused Michael Jordan to raise objections, since it would, in turn, prevent Charlotte from completing Part IV of their preferred player personnel plans for this summer:

i. Re-signing Tyrus Thomas, as a RFA;
ii. Not re-singing Raymond Felton;
iii. Acquiring a new PG to replace Felton [i.e. by trading Diaw for Calderon]; and,
iv. Acquiring a legitimate interior front-court scorer [i.e. by trading their acquired TPE, from Toronto, to Minnesota for Al Jefferson];

in order to alleviate some of their offensive woes from last season, and speculated about for some time by keen observers of the Bobcats.

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Hmmm …

Going forward in Charlotte, it could well be the case that Michael Jordan, v.7 [i.e. as "the" owner of the Bobcats] may not be so easy to push around, as was Michael Jordan, v.5 [i.e. as the "quasi-GM" of the sad-sack Washington Wizards] and Michael Jordan, v.6 [i.e. as a "minority share" owner with the franchise once controlled by Robert Johnson].

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Update:

According to Adrian Wojnarowski [10 minutes ago], Charlotte has now agreed to trade Tyson Chandler [C] and Alex Ajinca [C] to Dallas, in exchange for Erik Dampier [C], Matt Carroll [G] and Eduardo Najera [G/F].

According to Rick Bonnell [Inside The NBA], the hang-up in the proposed trade between Charlotte and Toronto isn’t a case of cold feet on the part of the NBA’s most notorious ’stone-cold assassin’ but, rather, a case of unrealistic financial expectations on the part of the former two-time recipient of the league’s EOTY Award:

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So, if this trade ever happens …

– The problem, I’m told, is Toronto general manager Bryan Colangelo’s financial expectations. I don’t know if that literally means cash or whether he’s demanding another team take a bad contract off his payroll.  But at the end of the day, Colangelo wants to make this work. It’s now so public, it would be hard to stuff the genie back in the bottle. Chandler and Evans already consider themselves exes with their former teams.

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Could it be that the proposed trade which Michael Jordan and Bryan Colangelo had originally agreed to was in fact not what has been reported to-date:

To Phoenix
- Hedo Turkoglu [from Toronto]

To Toronto
- Boris Diaw [from Charlotte] and Tyson Chandler [from Charlotte]

To Charlotte
- Jose Calderon [from Toronto], Dwayne Jones [from Phoenix, via Toronto] and Reggie Evans [from Toronto]

but, instead, this one:

To Phoenix
- Hedo Turkoglu [from Toronto]

To Toronto
- Boris Diaw [from Charlotte] and Tyson Chandler [from Charlotte]

To Charlotte
- Jose Calderon [from Toronto], Dwayne Jones [from Phoenix, via Toronto], Reggie Evans [from Toronto] and Marcus Banks [from Toronto]

which involves an additional player with a perceived to be ‘bad contract’ for the Raptors? … and, the distinct possibility that the Bobcats principal owner has, thus far, refused to take this on, given the viable alternative[s] at his disposal [i.e. one of which is outlined above].

While there should be no doubt that Adrian Wojnarowski is a credible writer/reporter/journalist for Yahoo! Sports, i.e. Jordan holding up Raptors trade … given his body of work to-date … so, too, is it the case that Rick Bonnell fits into a similar category for the Charlotte Observer … given a similar examination … and that sometimes two highly respected people can, in fact, simply see the exact same events in two very different ways with neither party really being described accurately as an out-right liar.

Indeed, it will be very interesting to see how this whole situation is eventually resolved and which of these two respective parties - i.e. Bryan Colangelo or Michael Jordan - is more inclined to accede to the demands of the other.

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PS. Contrary to what many so-called NBA ‘experts/observers’ realize, success/failure in the cutthroat world of pro sports is determined to a large extent by the ability of one participant to productively assert their/his ‘collective will’ over that of an opponent, in a head-to-head matchup.

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Update:

From a Raptors perspective, it can be highly informative to also read a solid blog - and the related comments - associated with another team which Toronto is thought to be in the process of doing business with, or, quite possibly, not.

If the Raptors are, in fact, presented with the opportunity to end this week with the following player roster:

PG: Jack, Belinelli and Banks
OG: Weems and Barbosa
SF: DeRozan and Kleiza
PF: Diaw, Johnson, Davis, Evans and Dorsey
C: Chandler, Alabi and Jones;

while being able to preserve the full ‘TPE’ which they just received from Miami …

as suggested in this blog entry 

… then, they should jump at it immediately, as:

i. A legitimate way out of their current mess with a 1-dimensional player like Andrea Bargnani [C] at the core of their team:

and,

ii. Yet another feasible opportunity to gradually build a legitimate contender in the Eastern Conference which could eventually be able to win a league championship in the not-too-distant future.

Bryan Colangelo is a resourceful and hard-working GM. He just needs to be pointed in the right drection by the people working around him.

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PS. That’s the sort of roster which just might allow the Raptors to obtain a player like Harrison Barnes [i.e. Exhibit 1 & 2] through the 2011 NBA Draft.

Update:

PPS. Just to clarify the specific trade proposal outlined here, for the benefit of those who still might be confused by it … and, to distinguish it from what’s been proposed by other ’sources’ in the on-line hoops community … this is what it would actually look like, according to the ESPN NBA Trade Machine. And, you know what? Michael Jordan might then actually decide to go through with it, rather than getting cold feet at the last minute.

According to Tim Povtak, a senior writer at NBA Fanhouse …

Aging Theo Ratliff Has Sparked Bobcats’ Playoff Rise

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However …

If you take a closer look at the individual Game Logs for 3 specific players on the Bobcats’ current roster [shown below]:

Theo Ratliff’s Game Log This Season For Charlotte, since Feb 19

Tyrus Thomas’ Game Log This Season For Charlotte, since Feb 19

Tyson Chandler’s Game Logs This Season for Charlotte, since Feb 19 

you should be able to see clearly that the team’s recently improved performance has actually coincided with the return to good health of Tyson Chandler [i.e. Charlotte's Back-up Center] and the gradual integration of Tyrus Thomas [i.e. Charlotte's Back-up Power Forward] into their primary rotation, as much as [or, perhaps, even more than] the role and production of Theo Ratliff, as their Starting Center.

When a team like Charlotte finally turns the corner and morphs into a legitimate playoff contender it is rarely the case that there is only 1 player responsible for this actual transformation.

The simple fact is …

Charlotte has been engaged in the process of a long term build-up over the course of the past 2 years, given the additions of:

Larry Brown, Head Coach

DJ Augustin, PG [acquired via the Draft]
Alexis Ajinca, C [acquired via the Draft]
Boris Diaw, PF-SF [acquired via trade]
DeSagana Diop, C [acquired via trade]
Gerald Henderson, OG [acquired via the Draft]
Derrick Brown, PF-SF [acquired via the Draft]
Tyson Chandler, C [acquired via trade]
Stephen Graham, SF-OG [acquired as an UFA]
Stephen Jackson, OG-SF [acquired via trade]
Tyrus Thomas, PF-SF [acquired via trade]
Theo Ratliff, C [acquired via trade]
Larry Hughes, G-F [acquired as an UFA]

and,

Michael Jordan, Principal Owner,

in conjunction with the decision to retain the services of:

Gerald Wallace, SF-PF
Raymon Felton, PG
Nazr Mohammed, C

… and, the single individual most responsible for their success today is their once much-maligned General Manager, Rod Higgins.

Related:

Kudos to the Bobcats for resurrecting their once morbid franchise 

5 Men On A Single String … Kudos to Larry Brown

What the Charlotte Bobcats’ Tyson Chandler is, in fact, learning from his new coach, Larry Brown, is precisely what it takes to become a True Champion …

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The Team Bus, Coach Brown, a Rough Baby and CP3

BASKETBALL 24/7
People ask what Coach Brown is like when he’s not talking basketball and he’s a great dude, but the thing is, he’s talking basketball 24/7.

There are not too many conversations that you’ll have with him that aren’t about basketball. He’s a very concerned person, but he’s 100 percent into basketball.

His impact has been huge. One thing about coach is he’s going to bring it and be the same every single day. He will never stop coaching. I don’t know if I’ve ever been around anyone who loves basketball as much as he does and has the passion for it that he does.

It never stops and he’ll breakdown everything in footage. He’ll breakdown a mistake that a rookie made at the end of the game as if it was the first play of the game that a starter would make. That’s one thing I appreciate about him is that he coaches every single player the same.

If you make a mistake, he will correct you. He doesn’t care if you’re in your 12th year or your first. That attitude trickles down to our team and gives us our character.

Coach Brown has shown me the dedication every day that it takes to be great. It’s about understanding the passion and knowledge that you have to have to be great. The way he talks about the game is totally different from anybody I’ve ever heard talk about it.

The way he breaks things down, the way he looks at mechanics, the way he understands why guys are great scorers or great rebounders. Everything he does is from studying and that’s something I have learned from him.

For example, I’ll shoot a hook shot or a short jump shot and I’ll make it and he’ll come back and say, “Oh Tyson, come on, you have to get the ball in your fingertips.”

After he says something like that it feels uncomfortable. But then I’ll shoot it and miss it and he’ll say, “great shot.” Your first reaction is to say: “What are you talking about, great shot? I just missed that.”

But I’ve come to the realization that he understands that it doesn’t matter if you miss it that particular time. If you continue to shoot the ball the right way and you get to the point where you shoot the same way every single time, you’re going to make a higher percentage. It works out better than if you’re shooting half the time one-way and half the time another.

It’s just stuff like that that he’s a stickler on. He’s a stickler on you doing things the right way every single time.

You have to have a team that’s receptive to his coaching and his coaching style. Guys have to be willing to learn every day because he’s not going to stop teaching. If you’re the type of person that at some point wants that voice to go away, it’s not.

Every player I’ve talked to that has ever played for him says: “You’re going to understand how great he is when you don’t have him.”

It can be tough for guys being coached non-stop because a lot of players have never had that in their career. But when you’re on a different team and away from him, you look back and realize that he was just an incredible coach. Every guy I’ve talked to has said I’ll learn more than I’ve ever learned just playing for him and it’s true.

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in The Game Of Life.

Kudos gallore to both men for continuing to put in the work [i.e. Tyson for being willing to listen; and, Larry for being willing to speak, relentlessly].

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PS. Great basketball players simply do not exist without the benefit of working with great basketball coaches.

During Wednesday’s television broadcast of the Orlando/Toronto game, Jack Armstrong, Toronto’s analyst, made the following observation about the perceived talent level for this year’s Raptors team:  

Then, on Thursday evening , during the FAN590’s ”Hoops” broadcast, Eric Smith, Toronto’s radio analyst, tried to re-iterated this same point of view, when a caller suggested that the Charlotte Bobcats should actually be considered as “a better team with more NBA talent than the Raptors” … along with, at least, 4 other teams in the Estern Conference, i.e. Boston, Orlando, Cleveland and Atlanta.

After hearing Eric’s response to that caller, this is the exact comment [including errors] which was submitted by yours truly to his FAN590 blog, The Rap, on Friday, Dec 18 2009, at 2:17 PM:

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Hi, Eric.

I heard you on speak with a caller on last night’s show, just prior to 8:00 PM, concerning your belief that the Raptors [11-17/.393] are a better team than the Bobcats [10-14/.417]. According to what you said, your opinion was based on conversations you have had with various NBA insiders who you have encountered across the league and what their impression of Toronto and Charlotte has been to this point in the season.

Respectfully, it is my contention that you … and these NBA insiders who you happened to have communicated with regarding the relative strength of these two teams … happen to be incorrect in this assessment, and will eventually be proven wrong are the season plays itself out.

After starting the season poorly, without Stephen Jackson on their roster, the Bobcats have begun to climb up the standings in the Eastern Conference, and are now ahead of the Raptors. Although the Raptors [#4] have played a more difficult schedule than the Bobcats [#15], to this point, IMO, Charlotte has more “NBA talent” on its current roster, and should probably be expected to close out the current season by finishing ahead of Toronto in the final standings.

Calderon [+1] > Felton
DeRozan < Jackson [+1]
Turkoglu < Wallace [+2]
Bosh [+2] > Diaw
Bargnani < Chandler [+3]
———————-
Jack = Augustin
Belinelli < Henderson [+4]
Wright < Brown [+5]
Johnson = Mohammed
Nesterovic [+3] > Diop
———————-
Banks < Murray [+6]
Seems [+4] > Law
 Mensah-Bonsu = Graham
Evans [+5] ?
O’Bryant = Ajinca
———————-
Triano < Brown [+7]

PS. Hopefully, the fanbase should now be able to see that we’ve been saying for a while now, re: Jose Calderon’s relative lack of individual defensive prowess not being the major catalyst for the team’s many short-comings on that side of the ball, has been a highly accurate assessment.

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As you can clearly see there are several typos and what appear to be “publication errors” contained in that specific comment, which was submitted rather hurriedly and is still awaiting moderation/publication at The Rap.

In an effort to clear up any mis-understanding which Eric Smith - or other visitors to his blog - might have … 

Here is a more “in-depth” analysis of the rosters for the Raptors and the Bobcats, with a few adjustments to the initial ratings that more accurately reflect the current state of affairs with these two teams, from the perspective of this coner:

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Visitors here are invited to elaborate further on their own answer to this question in the comments section.

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The defensive system of an elite level basketball team is based on the execution of Rules and/or Concepts which are created by a team’s coaching staff to cover each situation which might occur during that team’s season; Rules and/or Concepts with which a casual [or, even, a die-hard] fan might not be familiar with already.

During this specific sequence:

Chris Bosh is X5, checking Tyson Chandler [C/O5].
Andrea Bargnani is X4, checking Boris Diaw [PF/O4].
Hedo Turkoglu is X3, checking Gerald Wallace [SF/O3]. 
DeMar DeRozan is X2, checking Stephen Jackson [OG/O2].
Jose Calderon is X1, checking Raymond Felton [PG/O1].

WHEN O1 MADE THE INITIAL LOW-POST ENTRY PASS TO O2 [RIGHT BLOCK] AND LAKER CUT TO THE WEAK SIDE OF THE FLOOR:

X1 was responsible for denying the Pass-back to O1 [as he cut through the lane to weak side of the floor [which is exactly what X1 did]. Once O1 got to the weak side, X1 was responsible for: i. Being outside of the lane on the weak side [to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation]; and, ii. Releasing Off his individual check [O1] to Zone Up against whichever opponents [i.e. 1, 2 or 2+] were located on the perimeter of the weak side.

X2 was responsible for defending against O2 in a 1-v-1 situation.

X3 was responsible for: i. Being outside of the lane on the weak side of the floor [to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation]; and, ii. Releasing Off his individual check [i.e. O3] to Zone Up against whichever opponents [i.e. 1, 2 or 2+] were located on the perimeter of the weak side.

X4 was responsible for: i. Being outside of the lane above the Free Throw Line [to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation]; and, ii. Releasing Off his individual check [i.e. O4] to Zone Up against whichever opponents [i.e. 1, 2 or 2+] were located on the perimeter above the Free Throw Line Extended [either on the weak or the strong side of the floor].

X5 was responsible for defending against O5 [located at the ball side elbow] in a 1-v-1 situation.

SPECIFIC RULES FOR O2 vs X2 POST-UP SITUATIONS vs MAN-2-MAN D

Since X2 is a frail 1st year player [20 yrs of age] who cannot defend successfully vs O2’s post-ups … based on a lack of guile and physical strength … X4 was responsible for Covering Down on the ball-handler to get the ball out of O2’s hands [in an effort to avoid the 1-v-1 isolation vs X2]. In general, there are three different techniques which a team can use to execute this specific Cover Down with X4, after the Post Entry Pass has already been made: I. Immediately, On The Initial Catch; II. Delayed, On The 1st Dribble; and, III. Late, on the 2+ Dribble. In this instance, the Raptors chose not to Cover Down Immediately, but to execute either Option II or III … which one exactly is unclear, given the physical movement of X4. All that’s known for certain is that X4 did not execute Option I.

AS X4 PREPARED TO INITIATE HIS COVER DOWN [either Option II or III vs O2]

X3 was responsible for Stepping-up Above The Free Throw Line Extended in order to maintain a Zoned Up position vs O4 [who moved above the Three Point Line] on the weak side of the floor [i.e. in order to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation].  

X1 was responsible for maintaining a Zoned Up position vs O1 [weak side FTLX] and O3 [weak side Corner].

X5 was responsble for: i. Denying an interior pass to O5 [who had cut to the weak side Block]; ii. Being within a step of O5 on the weak side of the floor [in order to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation], iii. Providing Help against a baseline drive by O2.

THE PASS FROM O2 TO O3 HAPPENED WHEN:

1. X4 shifted to the Left Elbow and waited for O2 to take his 1st dribble … which never came … in order to initiate Option I or II in his Cover Down vs O2.

2. X3 failed to communicate with X1 and X5 that he [i.e. X3] was Stepping-Up to defend the area of the floor above the Free Throw Line [i.e. where O4 was positioned] in unison with X4’s Cover Down; and,

3. X1 and X5 failed to: i. Recognize that X3 was Stepping-Up to defend that specific area of the floor and was no longer responsible for being Zoned Up on the weak side of the floor [i.e. vs O3 and O1]; and, then, ii. React quickly to the baseline basket cut which was beautifully executed by O3.  

SPECIFIC RULES FOR O2 vs X2 POST-UP SITUATIONS vs ZONE D

If the Raptors had shifted into their Zone Defense vs O2’s post-up, then their players would have been located in the following positions [in a 2-3 Zone]:

X2 - Left Baseline Defender … checking O2, in a 1-v-1 situation

X4 - Left Top Defender … at the Left Defensive Elbow

X1 - Right Top Defender … at the Right Elbow

X3 - Right Baseline Defender … at the Right Block

X5 - Middle Defender … at the Left Block

Since, X1 [i.e. Jose Calderon] did NOT step-up to the Right Elbow position and, instead, X3 Stepped-up to defend against X4, this indicates that the Raptors had not shifted into their Zone Defensive alignment during this sequence but were responsible for moving and reacting to O2’s post-up within the parameters of their Specific Man-2-Man Cover Down Rules.

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PS. Follow-up queries are welcome in the comments section.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 16 – at Charlotte [Wed Nov 25]

This is a back-2-back game for the Raptors. Although these two line-ups are relatively equivalent, in terms of individual match-up advantages, the additional experience which Raja Bell and Larry Brown have, in comparison with DeMar DeRozan and Jay Triano, respectively, gives Charlotte an edge which should be enough to secure a W in a close game.

Expect the Bobcats to be one of several improved teams in the EC this year battling for a lower tier playoff spot with the Raptors.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 6-10

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PS. This contest holds a high degree of interest, due to the presence of rookies DeMar DeRozan [No. 9/1st Rd, USC, OG-SF], Gerald Henderson [No. 12/1st Rd, Duke, OG-SF] and Derrick Brown [No. 40/2nd Rd, Xavier, PF-SF]. Brown, in particular, was a relatively unheralded player in this year’s NBA Draft who yours truly would have liked to see the Raptors trade down to obtain … in addition to receiving other assets, in exchange for the No. 9 [overall] Selection. Although it is still very early in the process, all three players seem to be acquitting themselves nicely in the NBA.

Thunder near trade for Hornets’ Chandler
Presti continues sound foundation construction around Kevin Durant [SF]. Controlled PG? Westbrook; check. Multi-purpose PF? Green; check. Defensive/Rebounding C? TC; check. Multi-purpose/defensive focused OG? … Next. 

Celtics trade ‘assistant coach’ Sam Cassell to KIngs
Expect Sam-I-Am back in Beantown, shortly, sitting in the 2nd row behind Doc. Is Ainge preparing for a bigger deal prior to the deadline? Looks like it.