khandor’s sports blog

Unlike certain other ”stats gurus” …

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e.g. LeBron is Wrong about LaMarcus Aldridge

The Blazers have won 37 games this far.  The team’s efficiency differential of 0.97 – and corresponding Wins Produced — is consistent with a team that should have won about 34 games.

When we look at performance in 2009-10, though, we see a team that should have won about 43 games.  In other words, the Blazers should have the best record in the West.  And in terms of efficiency differential, the team’s projected mark of 5.4 would only be topped by the San Antonio Spurs and LA Lakers in the West.  In sum, the Blazers – based on last year’s performance – should be contenders in the West.

When we look at how performance has changed, we can see three players – Brandon Roy, Nicolas Batum, and Dante Cunningham — who are responsible for the Blazers failure to contend.  Roy has been hurt, so it is easy to understand his performance decline. 

As for Batum and Cunningham, the trade for Wallace can help resolve both issues.  Thankfully for the Blazers, Jordan took Cunningham in the trade for Wallace.  So a player who was hurting the team is now playing elsewhere.

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… yours truly was not among the list of NBA observers who believed that either Portland or Oklahoma City should be characterized as ”hands-down winners” of the two deals which were completed at the NBA Trade Deadline [i.e. Feb 24, 2011], sending:

A. Gerald Wallace [SF-PF] to the Portland Trail Blazers, in exchange for Joel Przybilla [C], Dante Cunningham [PF], Sean Marks [PF] and 2 Future 1st Round Draft Picks;

and,

B. Nazr Mohammed [PF-C] to the Oklahoma City Thunder, in exchange for DJ White [PF] and Morris Peterson [OG-SF].

In the aftermath of these two trades, the Charlotte Bobcats have endured:

i. A 6-game losing streak [i.e. book-ended by Ws against Sacramento and Portland];

ii. The continued absence of Tyrus Thomas [SF-PF] for a stretch of 7 games [i.e. marked with a $], due to injury;

iii. The absence of Stephen Jackson [OG-SF] for a stretch of 3 games [i.e. marked with a *], due to injury; and,

iii. The absence of Joel Przybilla for a stretch of 4 games [i.e. marked with a ^], due to injury.  

This past Friday, however, Thomas and Jackson each returned to the Bobcats’ line-up.

Despite the on-going absence of Przybilla, the Bobcats have now won two consecutive games, while getting outstanding performances from two unlikely sources, i.e. DJ White [6-9, 251] and Dante Cunningham [6-8, 230] … each of whom is a still-youngish player yours truly first suggested – prior to their respective drafts - would eventually develop into a highly serviceable NBAer,

DJ White, Game Logs/2010-2011
Dante Cunningham, Game Logs/2010-2011

if afforded the opportunity to get consistent minutes.

There are 16 games left in the regular season schedule, and Charlotte is still very much in the hunt for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

It will be very interesting to see how this version of the Bobcats will perform coming down-the-stretch, if they can ever get themselves 100% healthy.

Paul Silas is off to a solid start as the new old head coach for the Bobcats.

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Silas says Bobcats will play up-tempo style game

Paul Silas’ first practice as the new interim coach of the Charlotte Bobcats Thursday had one noteworthy twist.

Instead of practicing with a 24-second shot clock, the Bobcats worked with a 14-second shot clock.

It’s all part of Silas’ plan to play up-tempo basketball—a stark contrast to the style of his predecessor, Larry Brown, who was fired on Wednesday.

“I want to bring some energy to this ball club,” Silas said after being introduced as the fourth head coach in franchise history. “I want us to get up and down and let it all hang out. If they don’t want to get up and down, they can come sit down by me.”

The Bobcats currently rank 29th in the NBA in scoring, averaging 91.7 points a game. Only Milwaukee is averaging fewer points. The Bobcats have averaged just 80.2 points during their current four-game losing streak and have not scored 100 since beating Denver 100-98 on Dec. 7.

“We’ve got shooters,” Silas said. “We’ve got defenders. We’ve got shot blockers. We’ve got all the ingredients that you need. The guys just have to get out and play and believe in themselves and believe that I believe in them. I’ve found that if you have a confident player, it’s unbelievable what he can do.”

Guard Stephen Jackson(notes) welcomed the commitment to playing up tempo.

“It’s rejuvenating,” Jackson said. “The styles are like night and day. Hopefully this will bring some life to us and give us some confidence and get us playing well again. Up-tempo, we’ve got a great group of young guys and this fits their style. Hopefully we can do a good job at it and enjoy it because it’s definitely fun.”

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With a roster that looks like this:

it’s the right decision for Charlotte to shift to an up-tempo game that can increase the Minutes Played for talented but, thus far, under-utilized youngsters like Tyrus Thomas, Domenic McGuire, DJ Augustin, Derrick Brown and Gerald Henderson.

The collection of players on the Bobcats’ roster at-present is not good enough to contend for a Top 4 spot in the Eastern Conference this season.

Used in the best possible way, however, by their head coach:

[for example]
 

there is more than enough NBA-level talent on this year’s team to remain in the hunt for the No. 8 seed in the playoffs well into the spring, if not for the entire campaign.

Last year, in just their 6th season in the NBA, the Charlotte Bobcats qualified for the playoffs for the first time:

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2009-2010, 44 wins, 7th place Eastern Conference
2008-2009, 35 wins
2007-2008, 32 wins
2006-2007, 33 wins
2005-2006, 26 wins
2004-2005, 18 wins

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While some NBA observers are describing the current situation in Charlotte as being one of the worst-case scenarios in the league … and, therefore, are forecasting that the Bobcats will take a step backwards this season, given their relative level of “productive activity” this summer … yours truly does not fit into that category.

When you look at what has occurred in Charlotte over the last 12 months:

you should be able to see that this team has, in fact, added several young/still youngish players to its roster with a fair degree of upside, while making steady progress in the win column each season, qualifying for the post-season for the first time, and solidifying its ownership situation under the sole control of arguably the G [basketball player] OAT.

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Q1. Are the Bobcats capable of winning the NBA championship this season?

A1. No, they are not.

Q2. Are the Bobcats a prime example of a Treadmill Team without any real hope of ever winning a League Championship in the not-too-distant future?

A2. No, they are not … at least, if you examine “the arc of their development path,” in relation to some of the other sad-sack outfits in the history of the NBA [e.g. LA Clippers & Toronto Raptors].

In all likelihood, Charlotte should/will be able to compete effectively for a lower tier playoff position again this season … which is a solid accomplishment for a franchise in its 7th year of existence.

According to Tim Povtak, a senior writer at NBA Fanhouse …

Aging Theo Ratliff Has Sparked Bobcats’ Playoff Rise

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However …

If you take a closer look at the individual Game Logs for 3 specific players on the Bobcats’ current roster [shown below]:

Theo Ratliff’s Game Log This Season For Charlotte, since Feb 19

Tyrus Thomas’ Game Log This Season For Charlotte, since Feb 19

Tyson Chandler’s Game Logs This Season for Charlotte, since Feb 19 

you should be able to see clearly that the team’s recently improved performance has actually coincided with the return to good health of Tyson Chandler [i.e. Charlotte's Back-up Center] and the gradual integration of Tyrus Thomas [i.e. Charlotte's Back-up Power Forward] into their primary rotation, as much as [or, perhaps, even more than] the role and production of Theo Ratliff, as their Starting Center.

When a team like Charlotte finally turns the corner and morphs into a legitimate playoff contender it is rarely the case that there is only 1 player responsible for this actual transformation.

The simple fact is …

Charlotte has been engaged in the process of a long term build-up over the course of the past 2 years, given the additions of:

Larry Brown, Head Coach

DJ Augustin, PG [acquired via the Draft]
Alexis Ajinca, C [acquired via the Draft]
Boris Diaw, PF-SF [acquired via trade]
DeSagana Diop, C [acquired via trade]
Gerald Henderson, OG [acquired via the Draft]
Derrick Brown, PF-SF [acquired via the Draft]
Tyson Chandler, C [acquired via trade]
Stephen Graham, SF-OG [acquired as an UFA]
Stephen Jackson, OG-SF [acquired via trade]
Tyrus Thomas, PF-SF [acquired via trade]
Theo Ratliff, C [acquired via trade]
Larry Hughes, G-F [acquired as an UFA]

and,

Michael Jordan, Principal Owner,

in conjunction with the decision to retain the services of:

Gerald Wallace, SF-PF
Raymon Felton, PG
Nazr Mohammed, C

… and, the single individual most responsible for their success today is their once much-maligned General Manager, Rod Higgins.

Related:

Kudos to the Bobcats for resurrecting their once morbid franchise 

5 Men On A Single String … Kudos to Larry Brown

If the following reports are, in fact, to be believed …

Thomas’ Bulls time likely about finished

With Tyrus Thomas it’s personal now

what becomes readily apparent is that

the people charged with running things in Chicago – i.e. Jerry Reinsdorf, John Paxson and Gar Forman - have temporarily lost their mind, if they simply want to ”give away” a player like Tyrus Thomas [23 yrs of age; 4th NBA season], either, now [as the NBA's trade deadline approaches], or at the end of this season. 

When you look at the significant progress which a player like Josh Smith [24 yrs of age; 6th NBA season] has made this season, as a young, unbridled Power Forward, with the world of talent but, also, the need for increased personal discipline in his individual game … it’s extremely short-sighted of Chicago’s current management team to fail to realize exactly what they actually have on their hands in the form of:

* young Mr. Double T

working [and maturing] in conjunction with

* Joakim Noah/C [24 years of age]

* Luol Deng/SF [24 yrs of age]

* John Salmons/OG-SF [30 yrs of age]

* Taj Gibson/PF [24 years of age]

* James Johnson/SF-PF [22 yrs of age]

* Kirk Hinrich/OG-PG [29 years of age], and

* Derrick Rose/PG [21 yrs of age].

Trading a still-young player with Tyrus Thomas’ physical ability and specific skill-set [i.e. Rebounding, Defense, Shot-blocking and an Increasingly Developed Offensive Repertoire] is one thing …

as long as an organization gets back, in return, an equivalent package of assets, or more …

but, simply giving that player away … for nothing:

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Tyrus Thomas can be yours

I can’t think of a single player, with the possible exception of New York’s David Lee, that has been jerked around more than Thomas. And I can’t think of a single player, with no exception, that has acted like more of a prat than Tyrus. A nasty combination.

One doesn’t lead to the other, but it doesn’t help. Thomas was drafted as a project by the Bulls in 2006, but he was never treated like a project. Instead, he was treated like some four-year college starter that had been on CBS too many times to mention, and someone who was used to the grind. Thomas wasn’t used to the grind. He was a basketball scrub until his late teens. He only had one year of slapping the backboards at LSU. He was ready, but he wasn’t ready.

The Bulls not only acted as if he was ready, but he was also added to the Chicago roster at the start of Scott Skiles’ weird passive-aggressive phase. When Skiles – who often seems like a perfect mix of the best qualities of Larry Brown and Don Nelson – started utilizing the worst qualities of Larry Brown and Don Nelson. The strange rotations. The stubbornness. The attention to obsession, rather than detail.          

Thomas played less than a year and a half under Skiles, but it may have well been two years. Because Skiles was replaced on an interim basis by Jim Boylan, a pointless move in retrospect, because Boylan was Skiles’ number two, and he promptly spent the entirety of his obviously-interim gig taking out Skiles’ indirect frustrations with certain players out on the kids who had wronged Boylan’s buddy the most.

So Thomas would leave the game, for long stretches, for no apparent reason. And, just as much, he would stay in the game for no apparent reason. Almost to a night, the good play would go unrewarded, and the bad play would go unacknowledged. How in the hell was this kid, this man, supposed to learn?

Left to his own devices, the project acted like – and I know you’re shocked – a project. Until it was/is time for Chicago to write off another cheapo lottery pick, and take in the savings.

It didn’t have to be like this. And, potential suitors? Thomas doesn’t have to be like this.

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Thomas big help in 109-101 Bulls’ victory

“He’s so athletic that he affects the game when he’s engaged,” John Salmons said. “He gets his hands on balls, rebounds, puts back shots. When he masters that, he really helps us.”

Salmons’ answer proved far more expansive than those from Thomas, who entered just 2:18 after tipoff and played the next 14:46. That’s close Thomas’ playing time from each of his last three games, which led to his frustration and blow-up.

Before the game, Thomas said he had “no regrets” about the incident and “there’s nothing to be frustrated about.” Afterward, he addressed his night, which included him grabbing three rebounds and playing six minutes before his first shot — a strong drive and score after passing up a jumper.

“I felt good,” he said. “I was just playing ball, trying to win, working for the team. I’m always ready to play. The more you’re out there, the more you can do.”

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makes absolutely no sense … except, perhaps, from a $$$ standpoint … if the ultimate goal there is actually trying to win the NBA Championship, again, in the not-too-distant future.

With their current cast of characters, it would be a mistake for the Bulls to think that what their team actually needs to do this summer is add 2 high-priced, free agent signees … when all Chicago really needs is:

1. To add THE right player, and

2. Give their existing collection of players a legitimate chance to grow and develop together, 

3. Under the direction of a truly Top Notch NBA coach.  

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Update:

Bulls not lacking for Thomas suitors [Feb 11 2010]

Despite what some might have you think …

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Rose leading charge for Bulls

Derrick Rose may not make the All-Star team, especially since the votes were all in before the Bulls’ win Wednesday night in Oklahoma City, but he’s finally emerging as a star. His impressive performance on the road against the Thunder — 13-of-23 from the floor (56.5 percent), seven assists, just two turnovers — was the latest in a series of virtuoso efforts.

It seems that the only thing that was holding him back the first month and a half of the season was the ankle injury he suffered in training camp. Check out his monthly splits:

• November: 16.2 points, 5. 3 assists, 46.4 percent shooting
• December: 20.4 points, 6.1 assists, 45.0 percent shooting
• January: 23.5 points, 6.5 assists, 51.4 percent shooting

Thanks to Rose, the Bulls are 12-5 in their past 17 games, including 10 road games. Out of the blue, Chicago stands in complete control of the No. 8 seed in the East and in position to surge as high as No. 5 by the end of the season.

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the recently improved performance of the Bulls has not been rooted, soley, in the increased scoring production of their 2nd-yr PG, considering:

I. The shift of Kirk Hinrich into the Starting OG position;

II. The shift of John Salmons into the Sixth Man Role [i.e. coming off the bench];

III. The return of Tyrus Thomas, from the injured list …

each of which coincided with the Bulls’ game against New Orleans [Dec 26];

and,

IV. The continued solid play of Luol Deng, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, and Brad Miller, since the start of the season.

The truth of the matter is that during this specific stretch of games played, the Bulls’ head coach … the once-beleaguerd Vinnie Del Negro … not Derrick Rose [PG], has actually been the person most responsible for Chicago’s improved W-L record.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 8– vs Chicago [Wed Nov 11]