khandor’s sports blog

According to TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott …

John Hollinger’s 2010-2011 NBA Playoff Odds

means that the season is already over for some teams in the NBA.

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As of yesterday:

This is what the NBA Standings looked like.

However …

According to yours truly:

[as of Friday, December 31, 2010]

This is what the list of Contenders To Win the 2010-2011 NBA Championship: Part 1 actually looked like:

   
which means that 22 of the 30 teams had already been eliminated from legitimate contention for the League Championship this season by New Year’s Eve …

and, given that it now looks as though the Dallas Mavericks will be without the services of Caron Butler [Starting SF] for the remainder of the season … 

The No. 1 ‘non Top 4′ team in the current standings which you should keep your eyes fixated on, as the rest of the season unfolds, is the Denver Nuggets [i.e. tied for 5th place - with the LA Lakers - with an 8.5% chance of reaching the NBA Finals, according to Mr. Hollinger, despite having only the 12th best W-L Record in the league].

Considering the injuries and absences sustained, thus far, by different members of Denver’s regular rotation, a line-up which looks like this [see below]:

should be able to reach the Western Conference semi-finals again this season and, quite possibly, shape up as a legitimate threat to make it to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history … if the Nuggets [A] can remain healthy for the balance of the regular season - including their head coach, George Karl – and [B] Masai Ujiri [GM] has the resolve required to not trade Carmelo Anthony [Starting SF/PF] prior to the Trade Deadline.

There’s a good reason this is the very first link on this blog which references something taken from the wonderful blog operated by Henry Abbott (True Hoop).

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A Professional Gambler’s take on the Tim Donaghy Scandal
If you are able to correctly ascertain which collection of players (a team) is better than another team and by precisely what margin, then you are certainly qualified to make decisions as to what players are worth.

Some of my most successful bets were the result of trades or acquisitions. More often than not I am able to accurately forecast how these changes would impact the teams involved.

Take the Shaquille O’Neal for Shawn Marion trade from this season as one example. I immediately knew this trade would not work out and backed it up with a very large bet (several really) that involved Phoenix not advancing in the playoffs and not winning the Western Conference.

A sports bettor and a GM are both faced with the task of making tough decisions. We arrive at our conclusions (or at least should) in a very similar manner, both the bettor and GM are taking significant risk in that if our suppositions fail be correct, we suffer. Any distinctions between what I do in my NBA betting, and what a GM does in assessing the merits of a certain trade or move are purely superficial.

At least that’s how I feel. Whether or not anyone agrees with me is another matter altogether.

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Co-sign … to each & every word.

If you read nothing else about understanding the NBA, and the people who work in this business, do yourself an enormous favour and devour this entire article/interview … concerning a most interesting character by the name of Haralabos Voulgaris.

Worth more than twice its weight in gold … and, simply, mandatory reading for anyone who loves this game.

PS. Kudos to you, Henry! … for being first with this side to the story.