khandor’s sports blog

Those expecting the Lakers to take a precipitous tumble in the Western Conference standings this season … in the aftermath of “whiffing” on a trade for Chris Paul [PG] and then sending Lamar Odom [SF/PF] to Dallas … do not have an accurate understanding of just how good Devin Ebanks [SF, 2nd-yr] is most likely going to be for their team this year.

Once Andrew Bynum’s suspension finishes and Kobe’s wrist injury fully heals, the following line-up for the Lakers:

STARTERS
Derek Fisher + Kobe Bryant + Devin Ebanks + Pau Gasol + Andrew Bynum

KEY SUBS
Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Metta World Peace, Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy

RESERVES
Jason Kapono and Luke Walton

EXTRAS
Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock and Derrick Caracter [inj.]

is still going to be formidable … as the bolded players above are actually much better than many so-called [but really illegitimate] NBA observers realize.

After the Lakers eventually use their large Traded Player Exception – obtained in exchange for Mr. Odom – it should come as no surprise at all to see this team finish with the best W-L record in the Pacific Division, once again.

Mitch Kupchak [GM] has already proven that he knows how to construct a top flight NBA team … as long as Jim Buss is able to stay out of the way.

Update:

For the benefit of those who might need some further clarification, here’s the follow-up comment which yours truly left a few minutes ago, in a related thread at PBT …

Devin Ebanks [i.e. think of a better, more physical, version of Trevor Ariza] and Darius Morris [i.e. think of a young, poor man's version of Tony Parker] are both very solid young players with the ability to make positive contributions to this year’s Lakers team which desperately needed an infusion of youth on the heels of last season’s disappointing end. Josh McRoberts is the type of banger who Mike Brown has made very effective use of in the past [i.e. think of a more athletic version of Anderson Varejao]. Troy Murphy [PF] playing beside either Andrew Bynum or Gasol is going to be a very potent player [i.e. think of the double-double machine who was a former starter for the Pacers]. Once the Lakers decide to use their TPE … and it doesn’t need to be in regards to acquiring a stud like Dwight Howard [C] … their roster is still going to be formidable for the Western Conference Playoffs, as long as they are healthy. Although they won’t play the type of artistically pleasing basketball they did under the direction of Dr. Phil, they will still be a highly effective team, under the capable direction of a defensive-minded head coach like Mike Brown. Those expecting a rapid Lakers’ demise this season will most likely be quite disappointed by season’s end.

According to the following report …

Murphy debating between Celtics, Heat

… a veteran NBA Big Man, who averaged 14.0+ ppg and 10.0+ rpg during both the 2008-2009 and 2009-2010 seasons, now has a very interesting choice to make. 

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Between Pat Riley and Danny Ainge?

Hmmm …

While there is considerable angst today amongst Boston Celtics fans …

the view from this corner is that …

The current/future version of the “Men In Green” might well prove to be an even more formidable force than what’s played out, thus far, this season:

When you examine carefully what Danny Ainge/GM did yesterday:

TRADE 1 – Sending Kendrick Perkins/C and Nate Robinson/PG to Oklahoma City for Jeff Green/SF-PF and Nenad Krstic/C;

TRADE 2 – Sending Semih Erden/C and Luke Harangody/PF to Cleveland for a 2nd Round Draft Pick/2013;

and,

TRADE 3 – Sending Marquis Daniels/SF to Sacramento for a 2nd Round Draft Pick/2017;

which cost the Celtics:

while bringing on-board:

… if they can now add an experienced player like Troy Murphy/PF [and/or Leon Powe/PF] to their mix, as a recently “bought out player”, by way of Golden State [or Cleveland] …

then, the chances are actually pretty good that Boston will be able to:

A. Maintain their current status in the East, as the “No. 1 contender” this season;

AND,

B. Re-stock their “talent” cupboard, in the not-too-distant future, as their “Big 3″ continue to age.

Time will tell if kudos are due once more to Ole Danny Boy … who has already stared down his critics before while using the diverse talents of Jeff Green to bring an NBA Championship to the Celtics.

Toronto Raptors 101
INDIANA PACERS 105
Complete Game Info – Mon Jan 11 2010

When you take a closer look at the way this specific game was played by these two teams, in terms of their respective rotations:

A.i. LINE-UPS
Raptors and Pacers each use a conventional 5-man unit.
Raptors use Hedo Turkoglu at SF.

A.ii. LINE-UPS
Raptors and Pacers each use a conventional 5-man unit.
Raptors use Sonny Weems at SF.

B. LINE-UPS
Pacers use an unconventional/”small” 5-man unit with Danny Granger at PF.
Raptors use a conventional 5-man unit with Hedo Turkoglu and then Antoine Wright at SF.

C. LINE-UPS
Pacers use an unconventional/”small” 5-man unit with Danny Granger at PF.
Raptors use an unconventional 5-man unit with Hedo Turkoglu at PF and Sonny Weems at SF.

what you should be able to see is that each squad had considerable success with specific types of 5-man units and struggled mightily with others.  

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

#1. When the Pacers first went “small”, at the 08:09 mark of the 2nd quarter, down by 22 points, what the Raptors needed to do in response was:

- Keep Amir Johnson/PF in the game, matched-up vs Danny Granger

- Replace Marco Belinelli/OG with Hedo Turkoglu/SF; shift Sonny Weems to the OG position; and, replace Rasho Nesterovic/C with Chris Bosh

If Toronto would have made these specific moves it would have created the following individual match-ups:

Pos, Raptor [Off|Def|Reb] vs Opp

PG, Calderon [+|-|0] vs Price
OG, Weems [0|+|+] vs Rush
SF, Turkoglu [0|-|0] vs Dunleavy
PF, Johnson [-|+|0] vs Granger
C, Bosh [0|+|0] vs Murphy

and put the Raptors in a good position to maintain their 20+ point lead heading toward half-time.

#2. When the Pacers went “small” to begin the 4th quarter, what the Raptors needed to do was:

- Replace Marco Belinelli/OG with Sonny Weems, at the 11:22 mark

- Keep Amir Johnson/PF on the floor, matched-up vs Danny Granger

If Toronto would have made these specific moves it would have created the following individual match-ups:

PG, Calderon [+|-|0] vs Price
OG, Weems [-|+|+] vs Rush
SF, Turkoglu [0|-|0] vs Dunleavy
PF, Johnson [-|+|0] vs Granger
C, Bargnani [0|0|-] vs Murphy

and put the Raptors in a good position to maintain their 8 point lead heading toward crunch time … i.e. the final 10 minutes … in the 4th quarter.

#3. According to the 5-man unit stats at 82games.com, the Raptors have yet to try the combination of:

Calderon/PG + Weems/OG + Turkolgu/SF + Bosh/PF + Bargnani/C

this season for any significant stretch of playing time.  

Although Sonny Weems has yet to convert a 3PT-shot in his NBA career, at 6-6, 203 he is an athletic defender/rebounder, at the OG position, who:

i. Shoots 45% on his 2FGAs
ii. Slashes well to the basket, in both half and full court situations
iii. Has the ability to draw fouls, and
iv. Plays with a high degree of energy. 

An effective compliment to the specific skill-sets of Jose Calderon [i.e. a good ball-handler and perimeter shooter], Hedo Turkoglu [i.e. a solid ball-handler and perimeter shooter], Andrea Bargnani [i.e. a good perimeter shooter] and Chris Bosh [i.e. a good mid-range/low-post scorer] … Sonny Weems is the player who the Raptors need to play at the OG position when the opposition elects to go “small” vs Toronto, like the Pacers did, during key stretches of Monday’s game.

What you see below are two video clips which The Arsenalist has done a good job parsing out from last night’s Raptors’ W vs the Pacers, while asking for “the answer” to 2 specific questions, based on this footage:

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Q1. Why did Belinelli leave Rush open?

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Q2. Why did Bargnani feel the need to help [leaving Granger open]?

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These are perfectly good “technical” questions which deserve to be answered properly [and thoroughly] by an actual basketball expert.

ANSWER 1

In this sequence:

Jarrett Jack is X1, checking Earl Watson/PG [i.e. O1].
Marco Belinelli is X2, checking Brandon Rush/OG [i.e. O2].
Hedo Turkoglu is X3, checking Danny Granger/SF [i.e. O3].
Andrea Bargnani is X4, checking Tyler Hansbrough/PF [i.e. O4].
Amir Johnson is X5, checking Jeff Foster/C [i.e. O5]. 

When O1 is passed the ball in the Right Wing position, X2 is the defender with the responsibility of checking the opposition player who is now occupying the “lowest” spot [i.e. closest to the baseline] on the weak side of the floor [i.e. O2].

X2′s responsibility is to be in a Help position vs any baseline drive by O1.

X3′s responsibility is to be in a Help-the-helper position vs any baseline drive by O1.

When O1 drives by X1, toward the Right Baseline, X2 must provide Help. It is then X3′s responsiblity to Drop/Sink Down toward the Left Baseline, in order to provide Help for the Helper [i.e. X2].

When O1 then makes a pass to O2, in the Left Corner, it is X3′s responsibility to, either:

A. Intercept/deflect this pass; or, B. Close-out vs O2.

In this instance, however … Hedo Turkoglu provides NEITHER of these two required responses.

This was a defensive miscue by X3, Hedo Turkoglu.

* The ONLY exception would be, if the Raptors’ actual game-plan called for whichever defender was assigned to Granger to NOT rotate off of him in all dribble penetration scenarios.

Instead of X3 [i.e Turkoglu] initiating a Secondary Rotation vs O2 [i.e. Rush], X5, Amir Johnson [who was checking an offensive player located above the FT Line, i.e. Jeff Foster], was forced to make a late attempt at a close-out vs X3′s assigned check, in a fruitless attempt to stop this wide open Corner 3-PT shot.

ANSWER 2 

In this sequence:

Jarrett Jack is X1, checking T.J. Ford/PG [i.e. O1].
Marco Belinelli is X3, checking Danny Granger/SF [i.e. O3].
Hedo Turkoglu is X2, checking Brandon Rush/OG [i.e. O2].
Andrea Bargnani is X4, checking Troy Murphy/PF [i.e. O4].
Amir Johnson is X5, checking Solomon Jones/C [i.e. O5]. 

When O3 [i.e. the Dribbler] and O4 [i.e. the Picker] executed a High Left Wing Pick, X4 and X3 had the responsibility of Switching … which they did effectively.

X1′s responsibility was to then be in position to provide [weak side] Help on any Middle Drive by O3.

X5′s responsibility was to defend 1-on-1 vs O5′s cut to the weak side Low-post position.

X2′s responsibility was to Sink to the Middle, coming off of O2 slightly, in order to deter/contest/defend against an interior pass to O4 [i.e. if he rolled to the basket].

X3′s responsibility was to engage O4 and neutralize his attempt to get open following the Pick Action [i.e. either rolling to the basket or popping out to the perimeter].

X4′s responsibility was to defend against O3 [i.e. the Dribbler].

When O3 then Drove Middle, into the lane, it was due to the “poor lateral defensive footwork” of X4 [i.e. Bargnani].

What X4 did effectively, however, was position himself in a way to be able to contest a running jump-shot from O3, if this player would have attempted to execute this specific type of low percentage shot on his drive into the lane.

Instead of doing this, though, O3 … when confronted with the weak side Help from X1 … made a Kick-out Pass to O1. 

At this point, two Defensive Rotation Options were in play:

A. X5 needed to Rotate Out to defend against O1 [i.e. with X4, either: i. rotating directly to defend vs O5; or, ii. rotating to O2, if X2 had been able to rotate to defend against O5]; or,

B. X1 needed to Recover [quickly] AND Close-out against O1, with X4 maintaining/re-establishing his defensive position relative to O3.  

OPTION B is what actually happened.

To this point, the Raptors were able to cover-up for Bargnani’s initial miscue.

When O1 then Drove Middle, getting into the lane, X1 did a poor job keeping the ball on the perimeter of the defense BUT a good job of at least maintaining his defensive position between the ball-handler and the basket, which enabled X3, X2 and X5 to all Stay Home on their individual check … although X5 did provide some Secondary Basket Protection by Stepping Up towards the front rim in support of X1.

The defensive miscue which occured next … i.e. X4′s decision to release his individual check to “Trap In/Out” vs O1 … was due to a lack of discipline/concentration by Bargnani.

Considering that Turkoglu first refused to LEAVE Granger … for whatever reason … in the 1st clip, and then Bargnani refused to STAY WITH Granger … for whatever reason … in the 2nd clip, it’s a sound observation to assert that at least one of these two players failed to do his assigned job properly, in these specific sequences, and that perhaps BOTH of them DO NOT have the discipline/concentration required to be a consistent defensive player for the Raptors, at this point.

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Anyone else who would like to have “an answer” provided to a technical basketball-related question, please feel free to create a youtube video clip, in some format, and forward it to this blog.

What you will get back, in return, is an accurate reply.

Cheers

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 15 – vs Indiana [Tue Nov 24]

Even though the Raptors do not have an individual match-up advantage versus the Pacers in this specific game, they should still be able to get the W. Given the uncertain status of Mike Dunleavy [i.e. still recovering from knee surgery], it’s prudent to take a “wait-and-see approach” to Indiana this season. Jim O’Brien is a much more experienced coach than Jay Triano … but, he is not beyond making specific moves in a particular game which are somewhat-to-highly questionable that can jeopardize his own troops chances of winning. Facing the possibility of falling to 5-10 on the season, with a home-court loss to a middle-of-the-pack team in the EC, the Raptors should be highly energized for this game.

Raptors expected W-L Record: W, 6-9

Finally … a stats guru speaks who is at least on the right track.

How stats apply to individual match-ups for elite level NBA coaches
WW: Tracy McGrady is a player who has never helped his team as much as people thought. Allen Iverson — for one or two years he was really good.

The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.

Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.

(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)

There’s a bunch of guys like that.

Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)

Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.

HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t. 

WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.

But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.

It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.

If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.

Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright.  He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible. 

Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.

Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.

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THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.

Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!

PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play?  Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.

PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.

PPPS. Btw … What Wayne Winston had to say in this piece about there being no distinction necessary between the use of players like Brandon Bass [#4/PF] and Dirk Nowitzki [#5/C], on the court together, regardless of their position, and the effect/thinking of Mike D’Antoni, just happens to be wrong.

It’s interesting when others in the blogosphere attempt to rank NBA players, by position, according to a metric which is based, at least, in part, on standardized game statistics, e.g. PPG, RPG, APG, TS% and PER.

Ranking Eastern Conference Power Forwards
As always, these rankings are meant to project how I think they’ll perform next season, not what they’ve done in the past. The numbers next to each player are last season’s points, assists and rebounds per 36 minutes, their True Shooting percentage (TS%) and their Player Efficiency Ratings (PER).

1. Chris Bosh, Toronto — 2008-09 numbers: 21.5 PTS, 2.3 AST, 9.5 REB, .569 TS%, 22.1 PER
CB4 probably belongs on the top of this list even if he just delivers the same numbers he has over the past four seasons, but it’s a contract year and he wants to prove he’s worth a max contract. I don’t know if his scoring numbers will increase, but I think he’s going to jack up his intensity on defence and on the boards.

2. Kevin Garnett, Boston — 2008-09 numbers: 18.3 PTS, 2.9 AST, 9.9 REB, .563 TS%, 21.2 PER
Before KG screwed up his knee, he was easily the best power forward in the East. Since he’s 33 years old, I’m skeptical that he can return with the same athleticism and explosiveness he’s known for. Of course, Boston fans will tell you that he’ll more than make up for that with heart, intensity, and plain ol’ Celtic Pride. (Pausing to vomit profusely in wastebasket.)

3. Rashard Lewis, Orlando — 2008-09 numbers: 17.6 PTS, 2.6 AST, 5.7 REB, .580 TS%, 16.8 PER
Rashard scored in double figures in all 19 playoff games leading up to the NBA Finals — he was particularly devastating in helping to dispatch the favoured Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals. He might end up sliding over to small forward while new team-mate Brandon Bass mans the four-spot, but without confirmation I’ll assume that Lewis will remain the starting power forward and an excellent complement to Dwight Howard’s power game.

4. Josh Smith, Atlanta — 2008-09 numbers: 16.0 PTS, 2.5 AST, 7.4 REB, .533 TS%, 17.2 PER
Sure, he’s a knucklehead, but a very talented one. If he stops jacking up ill-advised threes and returns to being one of the most devastating shot-blockers in the league, Smith’s $10.8 million salary next season might actually seem like a relative bargain.

5. Elton Brand, Philadelphia — 2008-09 numbers: 15.6 PTS, 1.4 AST, 9.9 REB, .484 TS%, 14.6 PER
If he was still in his prime, Brand would easily be third on this list. Unfortunately, he was in the bottom half of Eastern power forwards last season because he was labouring with a bum shoulder and he only played in 29 games. There isn’t a strong track record of big men in their 30s returning to their prior glory after a bad run of injuries (see: Jermaine O’Neal) but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he can get his shooting percentage back up to pre-injury form since he claims he’s feeling like his old self again.

6. Antawn Jamison, Washington — 2008-09 numbers: 20.9 PTS, 1.8 AST, 8.4 REB, .549 TS%, 20.6 PER
Jamison has always put up good numbers and as far as I know, he’s always been a terrible defender. That might help explain why the Wizards had the second-worst record in the NBA last season.

7. Troy Murphy, Indiana — 2008-09 numbers: 15.1 PTS, 2.5 AST, 12.5 REB, .614 TS%, 17.8 PER
Is Troy Murphy a better athlete than Andrea Bargnani? And if not, how does Troy grab twice as many rebounds as Andrea per 36 minutes? Murphy is just as deadly from beyond the arc (45% last season) as Bargnani, but our guy gets the edge on defence because Murph is lousy on that end.

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Or, do they reveal a bias of some sort … i.e. in favour or against specific players; or, a specific “type” of player … at this position?

FWIW …

Here are the preferences of this corner when it comes to choosing the best Power Forward from the Eastern Conference, from this list, if the goal is Winning … e.g. a Do-or-Die Playoff Game … this coming season.

Dunleavy in Pacers’ opener? Maybe
… Mike Dunleavy might be back sooner than expected, his coach said today.

“Our medical people are very pleased with his progression,” Pacers head coach Jim O’Brien said. “I’ve changed my view point to a pessimistic one from a standpoint of him being ready in the middle of the season to one that I’m hoping he’ll be ready to go for game one.”

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If Indiana was to actualy have a 100% healthy Mike Dunleavy, Jr. back in it’s rotation from the start of the 2009-2010 regular season schedule … in addition to a 100% healthy Danny Granger … then, yours truly would definitely consider the Pacers as yet one more Tier 2A team in the belly of an ever-strengthening Eastern Conference.

Finally having rid themselves of the debilitating Jamaal Tinsley [PG] situation, while adding [i] a low-cost veteran PG [low cost free agent], [ii] a hard-nosed defensive-minded, rebounding, non-shooting role player on the Wing [low cost free agent], [iii] a high motor, physical front-court player [Mid 1st Round Draft Pick], and [iv] an under-rated shot-blocking, non-scoring role playing back-up Center [low cost free agent]:

STARTERS
1 TJ Ford [PG]
2 Dahntay Jones [OG]
3 SF/Danny Granger [SF]
4 Troy Murphy [PF]
5 Roy Hibbert [C]

KEY SUBS
6 Watson [PG]
7 Brandon Rush [OG/SF]
8 Mike Dunleavy, Jr. [OG/SF]
9 Tyler Hansbrough [PF]
10 Solomon Jones [C]

RESERVES
11 Travis Diener [PG]
12 Jeff Foster [PF/C]

EXTRAS
13 AJ Price [PG]
14 ?
15 ?

this would be the type of diversified line-up necessary to compete for a #6-8 playoff spot in the EC from beginning to end.

While there is much to be gained from understanding how statistical appraisals of real life players can sometimes unearth information which is not readily discernible by the naked, untrained eye so, too, is it the case that an over-reliance on number-crunching of this same sort can obscure the clear view of what a specific player brings to the court in a NBA game.

Such is the case today with the following observations made by Yahoo! Sports’ Kelly Dwyer, regarding the skill-set and functionability of Dahntay Jones, outlined in the bolded text of the following quotation:

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The Pacers hold off rebuilding for another year
The latest move has been the push to pay Dahntay Jones through his prime kicking and pushing years. It’s an awful contract, even at the cheap price of four years and $11 million, because what Jones does is so utterly replaceable.

He gets the reputation as a defensive stopper, but last year’s Nuggets were actually better defensively with him off the floor (and way better offensively). George Karl just liked the idea of starting the tough guy over the mercurial J.R. Smith, so he kept up the charade. 

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In sharp contrast to Mr. Dwyer’s perception of Mr. Jones, as a “cookie-cutter” defensive player who isn’t worth his weight in gold … or the free agent contract he is reportedly set to sign with the Indiana Pacers tomorrow … yours truly has a very different understanding of what DJ brings to the table every day that is most definitely NOT easily replaceable by any Tom, Dick or Harry culled from the NBA’s scrap-heap.

At 6-6, 210 with a well-developed physical [and somewhat dirty mean] streak in him … Mr. Jones is one of the VERY FEW players in the entire NBA with the “capacity to neutralize” an extraordinary offensive talent like Chris Paul [PG], as he did this past season in the 1st Round of the Playoffs.

You can search high and low, naming every supposed defensive stopper across the breadth of the League … i.e. including Shane Battier, Tayshaun Prince, Bruce Bowen, Kobe Bryant, James Posey, Shannon Brown and Lindsay Hunter, etc. … and you will not find a single player with the combination of skills, physical attributes and attitude, that it takes to do what was done to CP3 in 4 of those 5 games.

The fact that Denver’s offensive & defensive team “productivity numbers” both went down when Mr. Jones was on the floor is not an accurate indicator of his personal level of proficiency as a high end defensive role player in the NBA who is capable of checking the opponent’s #1/PG, #2/OG and #3/SF.

When you then combine what Mr. Jones brings to the table defensively with the way in which he plays offense … i.e. as a low-volume shooter who is comfortable when playing within a highly defined role for a team that’s founded on the principles of teamwork & physical/aggressive play at both ends of the court, and in terms of rebounding … he becomes a highly valuable commodity in today’s NBA … especially for an outfit like Indiana that features a mostly finesse line-up like this:

PG – Jarrett Jack or TJ Ford 
OG – ??? or Brandon Rush [SF-?]
SF – Danny Granger or Mike Dunleavy [OG-?]
PF – Troy Murphy or Tyler Hansbrough 
C – Roy Hibbert or Jeff Foster

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Q1. Will the Pacers win the NBA Championship this coming season?

A1. No they will not.

Q2. Will they compete for the #6-8 playoff spots in the EC, after missing out the last two seasons?

A2. Without a doubt … if they decide to match the contract offer that the Raptors made to Jarret Jack this past weekend.

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Under the leadership of Larry Bird and David Morway the Pacers are attempting to climb out of a significant hole, while re-building their franchise without ever sinking to the bottom of the NBA.

If they can make the playoffs this season, it will be a major accomplishment, and provide another checkmark along the way back to respectability for this once proud team.

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PS. In fact, once the Pacers can rid themselves of the $7.0 M/yr contract they have tied up with Jamaal Tinsley they will be right back in business, as a legitimate contending team in the EC … with a player like Dahntay Jones defending for them at the OG position, beside Danny Granger & Co.