khandor’s sports blog

Heading towards their 61st game of the regular season … this evening against the Los Angeles Lakers, at the Staples Center … the most productive players for the Toronto Raptors have been:

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LEGEND:

KPER = khandor’s Player Effeciency Rating [PTS - (FGA-FGM) - (FTA-FTM) + TReb + Ast + St + BS - TO - PF]

KPER/MP - khandor’s Player Efficiency Rating Per Minute Played 
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If the Raptors were to use their players in an 8-Man rotation which looks like this:

they would qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs without a great deal of difficulty.

The chief reason the Raptors have not used their players in the proper way … at least, thus far … this season is connected with the flawed Basketball Philosophy of their GM, Bryan Colangelo, who has consistently prioritized “offensively” skilled players, when constructing his teams in Phoenix and Toronto, rather than players with an abundance of “defensive and rebounding” skills.

Since the Raptors have now lost 5 of their last 6 games, and dropped into 6th place in the Eastern Conference, discussion [i.e. A and B] has been rekindled regarding the proper use of DeMar DeRozan/OG, Antoine Wright/OG-SF and Sonny Weems/OG-SF.

When making an initial evaluation of these 3 wing players for the Raptors, this season, it can be helpful to consider a simple stat, like KPER, which is derived from readily available boxscore information.

[i.e. khandor's Player Efficiency Rating = PTS - (FGA-FGM) - (FTA-FTM) + TREB + AST + ST + BS - TO - PF]

This basic measure generates the following raw scores for these 3 players:

DeMar DeRozan, +304
Sonny Weems, +227
Antoine Wright, +204

When Minutes Played are factored into the equation, it becomes even more obvious which of these 3 players has generated the most on-court production for the Raptors this season:

Over the course of their remaining 22 games … at least, if the Raptors hope to secure a playoff position above the No. 8 seed … Toronto would do well to ensure that Antoine Wright actually has his MP reduced; while, both, DeMar DeRozan and Sonny Weems have their MP increased.  

When crunch time happens in a NBA game, it’s the team which can respond with the best Offensive/Defensive/Rebounding execution that usually triumphs.

Philadelphia 76ers 114
TORONTO RAPTORS 101
Complete Game Info

In yesterday’s contest:

After Toronto cut Philly’s lead to 7 points, mid-way in the 4th quarter…

[Full Play-By-Play]

the Raptors responded by scoring on only 3 of their 7 ensuing possessions …

i.e. J2; J3; O-Reb-LU; J3; OFF PF/TO; DLU; J3 [Conversion = 42.9%] 

while the 76ers responded by scoring on 7 on their next 8 possessions …

i.e. FA-J2; FA-J2; LU; LU; J3; DLU; J2; O-Reb-J2 [Conversion = 87.5%].

Specifically, what happened during these 15 possessions to cement the victory for the 76ers? 

FOR PHILADELPHIA

- Andre Iguodala hit a tough fade-away jump shot vs Antoine Wright … primarily because Iguodala is a better basketball player than Wright, with a higher skill level, overall and superior athleticism

- Elton Brand made a tough [i.e. highly contested], fade-away jump shot in a right block post-up situation vs Chris Bosh

- Jrue Holiday made 2 terrific drives to the basket vs Jarrett Jack [Primary Defender] and Andrea Bargnani [Secondary Defender/Made unsuccessful shot block attempt]

- Holiday made a big 3PT shot when the Raptors were scrambled on defense, switching between Man-2-Man and Zone coverage

- Samuel Dalembert [Primary defender] and Iguodala [Secondary defender] did a good job contesting Chris Bosh’s driving layup attempt without fouling

- Dalembert secured a big offensive rebound and made a solid jump shot vs Chris Bosh

FOR TORONTO

- Jarrett Jack was repeatedly beaten off the dribble by Jrue Holiday

- Andrea Bargnani missed a 3PT shot

- After keeping the Raptors in the game with 2 big made jump shots, Jose Calderon made an uncharacteristic Turnover [Offensive PF] and missed a 3PT shot 

- Chris Bosh was ineffective … after re-injuring his ankle during the early stages of the 4th quarter [10:19], leaving to have it re-tapped, and then re-entering the game at the 7:54 mark … and surrendered a difficult fade-away jump shot to Elton Brand and an uncontested jump shot to Samuel Dalembert [after giving up an offensive rebound]

IN GENERAL

- Philadelphia’s two 5-man units of …

a. Holiday + Williams + Iguodala + Young + Brand
b. Holiday + Williams + Iguodala + Young + Dalembert

were too athletic and dynamic for the Raptors’ quintet of …

Calderon + Jack [?]+ Wright [?] + Bosh [re-injured?] + Bargnani [?].

LOOKING AHEAD

If the Raptors are going to maintain their current 6th place standing in the Eastern Conference, working through their upcoming 4-game west coast road trip, they will need to:

1. Have the services of a healthy Chris Bosh;

and,

2. Use a different combination of players to finish games.

If the Raptors do not have these 2 things occur, however, their fans will need to brace themselves for the rocky road ahead …

which just might see this team:

i. Lose, at least, 3 of their next 4 games;

ii. A. Have to battle the Chicago Bulls for the 8th and final playoff position, coming down the stretch, and the right to be eliminated from the post-season by the Cleveland Cavaliers/#1;

or,

ii. B. Perhaps miss the playoffs entirely;

and, then,

iii. Have a very difficult time retaining the future services of Chris Bosh, as he heads towards unrestricted free agency this coming summer.

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Related:

Raptor alarmed by lack of team focus

Last night’s game was a must-win situation for Toronto [5th; 28 L's], looking ahead to the 4-game west coast road trip which begins next week:

Game 62, at LAL [46-17, L?]
Game 63, at SAC [21-41, L?]
Game 64, at GSW [17-44, W?]
Game 65, at POR [37-27, L?]

and in the rear-view mirror, as Milwaukee [6th; 29 L's], Chicago [7th; 30 L's], Miami [8th; 31 L's] and Charlotte [9th; 31 L's] each continue their pursuit of a playoff position [i.e. #5-8] in the Eastern Conference.

New York Knicks 96
TORONTO RAPTORS 102
Complete Game Info

Operating without the services of Chris Bosh for the 7th consecutive game, the Raptors were able to post a solid victory, led by the stellar offensive performance of Sonny Weems and Jose Calderon:

who were simply too quick, strong, and athletic for their counterparts on the Knicks to contain off the dribble.

If the Raptors can secure another W tomorrow afternoon, at home against the still struggling 76ers, it would ensure that Toronto [32-28] will be able to return to the cozy confines of the ACC [22-9] for Games 66 and 67 on their schedule, against Atlanta [40-21; Away/15-14] and Oklahoma [37-24; Away/17-13], respectively, no worse than 1 game above the .500 mark [i.e. if they somehow manage to go O-for on their road trip].

With the favourable upcoming schedules held by Charlotte and Miami, and with Milwaukee playing much improved basketball of late … following their acquisitions of John Salmons/G-F and Jerry Stackhouse/G-F … it looks like the battle for the 8th seed in the East might come down to the final 3 games of the regular season for, either, Toronto or Chicago:

TORONTO
Game 80, vs Chicago [W?]
Game 81, at Detroit [L?]
Game 82, vs New York [W?]  

CHICAGO
Game 80, at Toronto [L?]
Game 81, vs Boston [L?]
Game 82, at Charlotte [L?]

where the Raptors should have a decided edge.

When the Knicks are shooting well from beyond the arc, they can be a difficult opponent to play against.

However, when they shoot like they did yesterday [3-16/.188], they become easy pickings for a high-scoring, offensively oriented, team like the Raptors.

The battle for the final 4 playoff spots in the Eastern Conference is shaping up as a doozy with the current standings looking like this:

Although the Raptors’ head coach, Jay Triano, neglected to mention the Miami Heat in his post-game comments last night …

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Shorthanded Raptors lurch to another defeat

With Jose Calderon sitting out due to a cut on his right elbow, Hedo Turkoglu taking the second half off with a bad ankle and with Chris Bosh back home in Toronto nursing his sore left ankle, the Raptors were drilled 116-92 by the Rockets here Monday in a game that evoked memories of the horrific defence of the first six weeks of the season.

And coach Jay Triano sounded some warning signs after the loss.

“I don’t know what you mean about playoffs. I would say that we’re not even close to being in the playoffs yet,” he said when the topic of the post-season was broached.

“We’re going to be in a fight until the last day in the schedule. Milwaukee’s playing well, Chicago’s playing well, Charlotte’s playing well. We’re going to be in a fight for a playoff spot right down to the very end.”
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it could well be the case that:

1. Any of these 5 teams could be the 1 to miss out on this year’s playoffs …

Given the “relative strength” of the current rosters for these teams: