khandor’s sports blog

As the summer continues to unfold, and NBA teams continue to fill in the blank spots on their rosters - i.e. for players and coaches alike - it can be enlightening to compare specific squads to one another, in an effort to assess accurately where they might be heading in the season ahead. 

Of initial interest is a comparison between the situations for Toronto and New Jersey, considering:

i. The inter-twined relationships which exist between several of the players and coaches on each team, including:

* Sam Mitchell is the former head coach of the Toronto Raptors.

* Jay Triano was an assistant coach on Sam Mitchell’s staff in Toronto.

* Avery Johnson [i.e. a former head coach for the Mavericks when they went to the NBA Finals/2006] was working as a NBA TV Analyst last summer, when Jay Triano was re-hired by the Raptors, as their permanent head coach.

* Kris Humphries [PF] played for the Raptors 2 seasons ago … and, was traded away in the failed experiment which was Hedo Turkoglu [SF].

* Andrea Bargnani [C, No. 1, overall, Draft Pick/2006, Tor] and Brook Lopez [C, No. 10, overall, Draft Pick/2008, Njn] have each been identified as a Cornerstone Player.

* DeMar DeRozan [G/F, No. 9, overall, Draft Pick/2009, Tor] was selected two places ahead of Terrence Williams [G/F, No. 11, overall, Draft Pick/2009, Njn], in the NBA Draft.

* Derrick Favors [PF, No. 3, overall, Draft Pick/2010, Njn] was selected ten places ahead of Ed Davis [PF, No. 13, overall, Draft Pick/2010, Tor], in the NBA Draft.

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ii. The recent ESPN Forecast for the 2010-2011 season;

iii. The fact that they have now been scheduled to play the first pair of regular season games beyond the borders of continental North America;

and,

iv. The specific approach each team has taken to the historic “Summer of 2010, Free Agency” which has lead to a ”radical roster revamp” for both squads, including:

- New Jersey’s decision to sign Travis Outlaw [SF/PF] vs Toronto’s decision to sign Linas Kleiza [SF/PF]

- New Jersey’s decision to trade Courtney Lee [OG], in exchange for Troy Murphy [PF] vs Toronto’s decision to trade a future 2nd Round Draft Pick, in exchange for David Andersen [C]

- New Jersey’s decision to trade Yi Jianlian [PF], in exchange for Quinton Ross [SF] vs Toronto’s decision to trade Hedo Turkoglu [SF], in exchange for Leandro Barbosa [OG/PG]

- New Jersey’s decision to sign Jordan Farmar [PG] and Anthony Morrow [OG], as unrestricted free agents vs Toronto’s decision to re-sign Amir Johnson [PF], as its own unrestricted free agent

- New Jersey’s decision to trade for Damion Jones [G/F, No. 24, overall, Draft Pick] vs Toronto’s decision to trade for Solomon Alabi [C, No. 50, overall, Draft Pick/2010] 

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As you can clearly see from examining the following chart:

According to these eyes, there is still a substantial discrepancy in the “talent” level for these two teams, when comparing their individual pieces … which is quite an accomplishment for New Jersey, since they won all of 12 games last year! … with the only authentic “advantages” for the Raptors being [i] Jose Calderon, when he’s used as a back-up PG, and [ii] Leandro Barbosa, when he’s used as a back-up Combo Guard.

That said …

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You’re invited to use the comment section to explain your answer, in detail, according to whichever specific “metric” you might prefer.

Neil Paine has now published an extremely interesting blog entry:

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Most Personnel Turnover Between Seasons

Here are the (non-expansion) clubs since 1965 who gave the smallest % of their minutes to players who had been on the roster the previous season:

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which indicates that, since 1965:

i. There have been 30 teams change at least 64.0% of their player roster from the previous season … based on Total Minutes Played;

ii. The “Average Win Total” for these teams is approximately 30 per season [i.e. .366];

and,

iii. Only 7 of these 30 teams [i.e. 23.3%] have finished with more than 41 wins [i.e. .500+] the following season.

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As you can tell from the comment [#3] submited by yours truly:

it would be very interesting to see what the results of Neil’s inquiry might yield, in terms of subsequent W-L records, if the parameters for examination were to be altered slightly, i.e. from a minimum change of 64.0% to >50.0%. 

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As far as the current edition of the Toronto Raptors is concerned …

These very simple stats might actually come into to play, if Bryan Colangelo [President/GM] is eventually able to trade Jose Calderon + 1 of either Reggie Evans, or Marcus Banks, this off season:

… which would, then, push next year’s team into the “>50.0% change” category.

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PLEASE NOTE: According to Neil’s research … of the 4 teams in the “>50.0% change” category from the 2009-2010 season - i.e. Toronto, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Detroit - only 1 finished the year with more than 41 wins [i.e. 1/4 = 25.0%]; while, the “Average Win Total” for these teams was a rather paltry 32 games [i.e. 128/328 = 39.0%].
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Last summer, the Toronto Raptors re-worked almost their entire roster, in an effort to qualify for the playoffs - and, to advance to, at least, the 2nd Round - by making the following personnel moves:

Although the team improved its win total from the previous season [i.e. 40 vs 33], it still failed to make the playoffs … due, primarily, to: [i] The 2nd half of the season injuries to their marquee player, Chris Bosh; and, [ii] The fact that the rest of their players - and coaches - were simply not good enough to win the required number of ’late season’ games, without their Captain in the line-up … after spending the middle portion of the schedule solidly in the playoff picture.

This summer, in addition to losing Chris Bosh, via unrestricted free agency, the Raptors have decided to re-vamp their roster, again, by making another series of sweeping personnel changes:

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Raptors acquire F Wright from Hornets

The 6-foot-8, 225-pound Wright averaged 8.1 points and 4.6 rebounds in 68 games with New Orleans last season.his move should help balance the roster and alleviate some of the redundancy we have with our guards,” Raptors president and general manager Bryan Colangelo said in a release Wednesday. “Julian is another young athletic player that will add depth at the small forward position.”

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As a result of these consecutive drastic ’summer make-overs’, the Raptors line-up now projects like this for next season:

… which means that the only remnants of the 2006-2007 team that went 47-35, to capture the Atlanta Division and earn a #3 seed in the EC playoffs, as well as the 2007-2008 version that finished in 6th place, are Jose Calderon [i.e. a high efficiency PG] and Andrea Bargnani [i.e. a low efficiency C]. 

There’s an old saying in life which goes something like this:

“Never make the error in judgment of mistaking activity for accomplishment.” - Anonymous

To these eyes, the Raptors are almost right back where they were, in 1997-1998, prior to the arrival of Vincent Lamar Carter.   

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PS. Don’t think for a minute that the Raptors have actually concluded their annual “summer make-over” … with the expiring contracts of Marcus Banks and Reggie Evans still in their pocket, plus a high efficiency PG - who they have already tried to trade on two occasions this off season - and, a 7-deep depth chart at the PG and OG positions which includes Calderon, Jack, Barbosa, Banks, DeRozan, Weems and Barbosa. Nosiree … instead of simply flying under the radar next season, in an effort to land a high quality player like Harrison Barnes, expect the Raptors to continue to try to upgrade their existing roster, in another futile push for a lower-tier spot in the playoffs.

When discussing the current plight of this team, all talk … eventually … comes back to the same specific topic - i.e. Andrea Bargnani [C, 7-0, 250], the No. 1 [overall] Selection from the 2006 NBA Draft - related to the arc of their annual W-L record, since the 2006-2007 season. 

The most harsh critics of the Raptors have suggested that the team’s fortunes have stagnated, since using the No. 1 [overall] Selection on a player who is not capable of excelling in at least 2 of the 3 distinct phases of the game - i.e. 1. Defense, 2. Rebounding, and 3. Offense; with performance in the first two being the most important for a Center in the NBA - and, ultimately, resulted in the departure of Chris Bosh … the team’s best player, by a wide margin … this summer.  

OTOH …

Those who extol the virtues of Raptors’ President/GM, Bryan Colangelo, point to the fact that there have been very few, if any, truly stalwart players come from the 2006 NBA Draft and that it was simply ‘poor luck’ for Toronto to have a player like Bargnani - who is an offensively talented Big Man - as the consensus No. 1 [overall] Selection that year.

Putting aside for the moment which of these two perspective is actually more accurate …

The upcoming season now presents the Raptors with an extremely situation, since a panel of so-called “NBA experts” has recently forecast that Toronto will … in all likelihood … should be expected to finish in last place in the Eastern Conference.

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Q1. What would a finish of this type actually mean for the Raptors franchise?

A1. It would mean … a legitimate shot at obtaining the No. 1 [overall] Draft Pick and the opportunity to select the type of authentic multi-dimensional cornerstone player every franchise needs to eventually propel itself into the upper echelon of the NBA.

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If/when you are able to put a dynamic wing player like …

with:

what you will end up with is a Core Group of players with enough first-class NBA talent to eventually become a legitimate contender for a Top 4 spot in the EC playoffs each year for the next decade …

provided that you are also willing to:

1. Wait until next summer to use the Traded Player Exception [TPE] gained from this summer’s trade with the Miami Heat [in exchange for Chris Bosh];

2. Are prepared to exceed the Salary Cap, down-the-road, to re-sign your own unrestricted free agents;

3. Are prepared to higher a head coach who is considered to be amongst the very best in the NBA and an authentic Transformational Leader;

and,

4. Actually prioritize The Winning of a League Championship for your pro sports organization.

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PS. In addition … the Raptors should also be prepared to trade Andrea Bargnani … let’s say, to the Minnesota Timberwolves, in exchange for their 2011, 1st Round Draft Pick … at any time a deal becomes available, to ensure that they go into next summer with 2 high Lottery Selections in their pocket.

PPS. The NBA has officially announced the individual team schedules for next season. As is, it looks as though breaking the 30-win barrier might be a real challenge for the Raptors, in an overall improved Eastern Conference.

According to an old saying, “There are many [different] ways to skin a cat.”

However truthful this may be … doubtless … each distinct method actually starts with thinking of that cat in the proper way, in the first place, i.e. “skin-less”.

Four plus years into the tenure of current President/GM, Bryan Colangelo, and there is still a significant segment of the team’s fanbase which is thinking about the continued development of the franchise in a way which is not going to result in major on-court success.

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The key to Raptor’s success still lies overseas

How can we ever win?

Star US players leaving in a hurry. Big name free agents looking elsewhere. It’s a never-ending cycle of American players disliking something different. Like different is a bad thing.

Four years ago, when Bryan Colangelo came to town, he went European. Today as we collectively lament over the loss of Chris Bosh, I understand why.

Going European may in fact be this team’s only chance to win.

Take the Blue Jays. Throughout the late 80s they cornered the Dominican and Puerto Rican markets. Built a roster full of international talent and then filled holes with key American players.

On the streets of the Dominican you wouldn’t see a Yankees hat or a Boston Red Sox hat. You’d see a Blue Jays hat. Or Tony Fernandez uniform.

Maybe the same can be done for the Raptors.

If the Raptors can continue to build relationships internationally it could reap rewards. Scout heavily overseas. Hold basketball camps in Europe. Promote Bargnani in Italy. Bring in a coach like Ettore Messina.

Bring in non-American players who are more akin to different cultures. Players who don’t care what anthem is played before every game. Who don’t scoff at seeing kilometers written on speed signs. Who are more cultured than your average American athlete.

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This is the specific comment which was left by yours truly, just a few minutes ago, at this otherwise first-rate Raptors blog:

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When I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put childish ways behind me.
1 Corinthians 13:11

In the vast landscape that encompasses Raptorville, today, there are voices aplenty. Not all of them, however, are Really, Truly, Madly, Deeply worth your time … if you are interested in learning more about the NBA game and reading the thoughts and ideas of someone who takes a sound approach to expressing their impressions of Toronto’s pro hoops “franchise”.

Ironically enough, one of the singular voices which yours truly would actually recommend for you to consider would be Raptors HQ’s own “Franchise”:

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To Boldly Go Where No Raptors’ GM Has Gone Before - Revisited

We’ve seen time after time in NBA history that teams without identities struggle in the league.  Last year the Raptors didn’t have much of one, and this year, because of the lack of differentiation among the roster, that could be even more true.  It will be up to Triano and his staff to forge that identity early on in the season, and hopefully some of Toronto’s young gunz pick up the torch and show that they’re ready to be starters in this league.

Otherwise forget Kirk, Spock and McCoy next year.

We could very well be watching a USS Enterprise run entirely by “red shirts.”

And I think we all know how that will end.

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… who frequently offers a well-balanced [realistic?] perspective on the day-to-day goings-on with his favourite NBA team.

Whether, or not, you actually agree with his specific take is not important.

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PS. In this case, it’s relatively easy … because he has smacked this one, clear outta da yard.

PPS. Anyone who makes proper reference to the weekly shenanigans of “Tiberius and his ‘trusted side-kick’” … aka, the inter-galactic equivalent of MJ and Pip … definitely picks up bonus points from this corner. 

With the recent departure of Chris Bosh, the Toronto Raptors will now be led by Andrea Bargnani [C, 7-0, 250], the former No. 1 [overall] Selection from the 2006 NBA Draft.

Although different voices on-line have discussed Bargnani’s ability, as a No. 1 Option [i.e. offensively, defensively and in rebounding] for the team, ad nauseum … and, to a large extent, still see him as a gifted scoring, uniquely talented Big Man, in the mold of a young Dirk Nowitzki:

Exhibit A, B, C and D 

the view from this corner, remains essentially unchanged:

1. As Bargnani’s Points Scored [Pts] and Minutes Played [MP] have steadily increased over the last 4 years, this is what the Raptors’ W-L records have been:

2006-2007, 1629/MP, 751/Pts, 47/W
2007-2008, 1861/MP, 792/Pts, 41/W
2008-2009, 2453/MP, 1202/Pts, 33/W
2009-2010, 2799/MP, 1376/Pts, 40/W
2010-2011,?/MP, ?/Pts, ?/W

Toronto Raptors Franchise Index

Conversely, this is what those same stats look like for the first 5 years of Nowitzki’s career in Dallas:

1998-1999, 958/MP, 385/Pts, 19/W
1999-2000, 2938/MP, 1435/Pts, 40/W
2001-2002, 3125/MP, 1784/Pts, 53/W
2002-2003, 2891/MP, 1779/Pts, 57/W
2003-2004, 3117/MP, 2011/Pts, 60/W

Dallas Mavericks Franchise Index

2. If Bargnani averages 20 pts next season … What does it really matter, in the grand scheme of things?

3. During his 5th season in the NBA, Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavericks won 60 games, finished 1st in the Mid-West Division, and Lost in the Western Conference Finals … with the following roster.

Those who think the 2010-2011 version of the Raptors might actually approach 60 wins are hopelessly delusional.

3. The name Bargnani name does not warrant inclusion in any basketball-related article which also deals with the abilities of Dirk Nowitzki.

4. Bargnani is only a polarizing player for those fans who don’t truly value being able to compete for a league championship.

5. To this point in his NBA career, Andrea Bargnani has been an overt symptom of what has actually ailed the Raptors franchise - i.e. the first in a series of baffling personnel decisions which have not focused on creating a well-balanced team, overall, with a raft of multi-dimensional players who are capable of poducing first-class Team Defense [e.g. Points Allowed], Team Rebounding [e.g. Reb Differential] and Team Offense [e.g. Points Scored Differential] - rather than a constructive part of the solution.

6. At this point of the off season, all indications are that the Raptors … led on-court by Andrea Bargnani … will probably find themselves right back in the NBA’s Draft Lottery next summer … which might not be a bad thing, at all,

if the long term objective for this franchise is to be able to compete for a League Championship sometime in the not-too-distant future.

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“From the ashes of defeat can the makings of victory arise … if it’s handled properly.” - khandor

There has been considerable discussion the last several days, in different places on-line, about what has really hurt the Raptors franchise over the course of the last 4.5 seasons.

Exhibit A - NBA: Free-Agency Breakdown

Exhibit B - Turkoglu is still hurting the Raptors

If you look at yesterday’s blog entry, you will see the list of Major Personnel Moves which the Raptors have made during this specific time period.

These are the team’s records of achievement: 

Since 2006, Winter
2005-2006, 27-55, failed to make the playoffs
2006-2007, 47-35, made the playoffs/#3 Seed, Lost 1st Rd
2007-2008, 41-41, made the playoffs/#6 Seed, Lost 1st Rd
2008-2009, 33-49, failed to make the playoffs
2009-2010, 40-42, failed to make the playoffs
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Projecting Forward
2010-2011, sub .500?, fail to make the playoffs?
2011-2012, sub .500?, fail to make the playoffs?
etc.

When you look at these items closely, what you should begin to see is the illogical reasoning involved with asserting that top flight NBA players have been disinterested in playing for the Raptors … if/when Toronto has legitimately focused on putting together a championship-winning calibre team, which is not something that has actually been done since Steve Stavro [i.e. one-time principal owner] sold his controlling interest in Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment Ltd.

While a specific team’s fanbase might not fully understand what ‘the game’ is really all about - at least, at the highest levels of competition - elite level NBA players do not fit into this same category.

The fact is … elite level NBA players understand very well that:

* Bottom-line profitability is not what operating a successful franchise in this league is all about;

* Simply fielding a “competitive” [i.e. "winning"] team most seasons is not what operating a successful franchise in this league is all about;

* Trying one’s very best to gradually build a legitimate contending organization which is actually capable of competing for and eventually winning multiple NBA championships is precisely what operating a successful franchise in this league is all about;

and,

* Repeatedly changing the same basic furniture in one’s original ’starter home’ does not equate properly with making an authentic attempt at …

When a team in the NBA makes a series of highly questionable basketball-related personnel decisions … which, on the whole, fail to prioritize the development of a championship-winning organization … over a lengthy period of time, then, the best basketball players in the world, and their respective agents, take note … even if the fans of this specific team do not, because they are focused on the wrong things, e.g. if the best player in the history of their franchise may have “checked out, mentally,” in the 2nd half of last season, since this is what has been identified by [A] the team’s President/GM and [B] certain other no-expert basketball observers, as the chief reason for the current state of the franchise.

… according to Hedo Turkoglu, as The Summer of Discontent continues on, unabated, in Raptorville:

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Turkoglu takes a shot at Raptors, Colangelo

New Phoenix Suns forward Hedo Turkoglu took aim at his former team, the Toronto Raptors, and their general manager, Bryan Colangelo, this weekend.

“People have to realize something is wrong with that organization and nobody wants to go there any more,” he said in a phone interview from Turkey, where he is captaining the Turkish national team at the World Championships. “It’s not just the players who see this.”

Turkoglu’s remarks were sparked by Colangelo’s recent criticism of former Raptors teammate Chris Bosh. Colangelo accused Bosh of “checking out” last season while the Raptors were battling the Chicago Bulls for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot.

Bosh, an unrestricted free agent who left the Raptors earlier this month to join LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Miami, missed six games after the All-Star break with an ankle injury.

“Despite limited swelling and any excessive damage on an MRI, he felt like he needed to sit,” Colangelo told Toronto station FAN 590. “I’m not even questioning Chris’ injury. I’m telling you he was cleared to play subject to tolerance on his part, and the tolerance just apparently wasn’t there and he chose not to play.

“Whether he was mentally checked out or just wasn’t quite into it down the stretch, he wasn’t the same guy. I think everybody saw that, but no one wanted to acknowledge it.”

Turkoglu insisted Bosh was a good teammate.

“It’s funny that people will talk behind your back,” Turkoglu said of Colangelo. “If he was feeling this way, why not have the guts to say it during the season? Why not say it to Chris? Now that Chris has left, it’s not nice to say those things.

“Chris has been a franchise player and he did a lot of good things for the Raptors,” Turkoglu added. “I don’t think Chris is the type of player to quit on his teammates.”

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Unfortunately, the ramifications of this error in judgment, by Bryan Colangelo … i.e. criticizing Chris Bosh’ effort, in the 2nd half of last season, after-the-fact … are going to be felt by this organization for a long time.

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PS. If you re-trace the gradual de-evolution of the Raptors franchise, over the last 4+ seasons, you should be able to develop a clear picture of the present situation, in Toronto.

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Bryan Colangelo made a serious mistake when he went public with comments which targeted the character of Chris Bosh and revealed the GM’s perception that the team’s former franchise player had allegedly “checked out” last season, sometime after returning from the mid-season all-star break … with his mind already set on not returning to Toronto, as an UFA this summer.

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Bosh says he always played hard

“I play this game as hard as I can every time I step on the court,” Bosh said. “On the back of my jersey it says ‘Bosh’ … The Boshes are hard workers. We have a lot of pride in what we do, in our jobs and in life.”

The Raptors fell from a playoff position at the All-Star break into ninth place in the Eastern Conference at the end of the season. Bosh and former Cleveland star LeBron James(notes) then joined Dwyane Wade(notes) in Miami as free agents this summer.

That ruffled feathers in Toronto and Cleveland, with Colangelo suggesting that the decision for the three stars to play together had been “brewing for a while.” He suggested the threesome started firming up their plans while representing the East at the NBA All-Star game.

Bosh claims he was still intent on getting the Raptors into the postseason.

“What’s so significant about the All-Star break? We were in the playoffs. And I wanted to play in the playoffs,” he said. “That’s all I thought about every summer.”

Bosh also clarified comments he made recently in the Miami Herald in which he called Toronto “different.” He said he didn’t mean that as an insult to the city.

“Toronto is different,” he said. “For one, it’s a different country. If you don’t know you’re in a different country when you land then something is wrong with your senses. That’s not to say that Toronto is not a great metropolitan city. It is a fantastic city.

“Different is not bad. I’m different. That doesn’t make me bad.”

Bosh also claimed his decision to leave Toronto was at the end of a long process and not something he had committed to before the offseason.

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When first asked by a visitor to this blog to provide an accurate interpretation of the comments which Chris Bosh made in his interview with the Miami Herald, about the city of Toronto being “different”, this is what was written by yours truly:

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Franchise without a face

khandor Says:
July 28th, 2010 at 3:29 pm

dg,

re: “Toronto’s a great place, a fantastic city,” Bosh told the Herald. “It’s a metropolitan area, but you could tell you’re somewhere different. You could feel it, you could look at it, you can smell it. Everything. All your senses tell you you’re somewhere different.”

Whoever perceives this quote … with which I am quite familiar … to be a slag of some kind towards the great City of Toronto, or Ontario, or Canada, in general, might just have a feeling of insecurity regarding how “they” happen to feel about each of these things themselves.

From my perspective, I have no such insecurity.

What Chris Bosh said in those words is precisely true … and a ringing endorsement for the great City of Toronto, which is indeed “different” from other places and cities in the United States of America.

The key word to understand [there] is that to people like Chris Bosh … e.g. like the Great Bill Russell and Charley Rosen and scores of other well known celebrities … “different” does not equate with/mean “inferior”.

In fact … in many cases … “different” can and does equate with/mean:

at least as good, if not straight-up better

that still takes some getting accustomed to

because it simply isn’t THE SAME as home [i.e. what you are used to, whether it's actually "inferior", or not, in comparison].

Readers here should trust that I know very well the “differences” between living and working in Canada and ‘the good ole USA’.

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Kudos to Chris Bosh …

1. For now clarifying the full meaning of his remarks to the Miami Herald, concerning the great City of Toronto;

2. For being a stand-up, straight-up person … of sound character;

and,

3. For completing the initial phase of his pro career, as the most accomplished player in the 15-year history of the Toronto Raptors franchise.

For those who still question the sincerity of Chris Bosh’s efforts, on behalf of the Raptors last season … including Kelly Dwyer, who really should know better, given the amount of basketball he’s watched, over the years … understand that this may say more about the specific way in which “you” happen to look at the world than it does about the character, values and basketball ability of the team’s former Captain. 

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PS. Going forward from here … If you were a high end player, in the NBA, and an unrestricted free agent, why on earth would you now be eager to work for a President/GM who says these types of malicious things, after-the-fact, about a player/person like Chris Bosh, once he’s decided to work for a different employer? 

PPS. If/when the Miami Heat eventually win their multiple NBA championships … with Dwyane Wade, LeBron James and Chris Bosh, as key foundation pieces … it will be yet another sad series of days for the Toronto Raptors franchise.

Related:

NBA Free-Agency Breakdown