khandor’s sports blog

If you’re a regular reader of this blog then you should already be quite familiar with the utmost level of R.E.S.P.E.C.T yours truly has for the best run organization in the NBA:

Kudos to Peter Holt, Gregg Popovich, RC Buford & Co. for:

- the discovery of Gary Neal [OG/SF]
- the decision to insert DeJuan Blair [PF] into the Starting Five beside Timmy D [C]
- the decision to stick with Richard Jefferson [SF] this past off season … and keep him in the 1st unit … when many other so-called NBA analysts were advising you to jettison him, asap
- the decision to stick with Tony Parker [PG] this past off season when many other so-called NBA analysts were advising you to trade him away in return for other assets in order to re-stock your cupboard for the future
- the decision to reduce the minutes allocated on a nightly basis to Timmy D [C], who remains one of the best players in the NBA
- the decision to use Manu Ginobili [OG/SF], as the Starting Off Guard
- the decision to keep George Hill [PG] in the 2nd unit, as the heir apparent to TP
- the decision to selection James Anderson [SF], as the Big 12 POY, with the No. 20 Selection in the 1st Round of the 2010 NBA Draft
- the decision to shift Matt Bonner [PF] to the 2nd unit, as the team’s top perimeter shooting Big Man
- the decision to shift Antonio McDyess [C] to the 2nd unit, as the team’s best mid-range shooting Big Man
- the decision to gradually add Tiago Splitter [C] into the mix this season, as a part-time role player who is going to be a very solid replacement for Timmy D down-the-road
- making the following list of player personnel decisions, in the month of November, which involved Garrett Temple, Alonzo Gee, Bobby Simmons, Danny Green, Ume Idoka and Chris Quinn

While other franchises in the NBA, either:

A. Languish forever in the lowest tier of the league;

or,

B. Are semi-permanetly entrenched in its middle tier, as a Treadmill Team;

… It is simply a joy to watch this outfit Go To Work! … 24-7-365.

According to Kevin Arnovitz and David Thorpe, Tim Duncan’s inability to defend the Phoenix Suns’ “1-5 Pick and Roll/Pop” series the same way he used to … when he was both younger and healthier … is a major source of the difficulty San Antonio is having in the early stages of San Antonio’s 2nd Round series in the Western Conference Playoffs.

Tim Duncan’s Decaying Pick-and-Roll Defense

Hmmm …

Is this actually the case, however?

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Q1. What is causing San Antonio the most difficulty, thus far, in their series with Phoenix?

A2. If you take a closer look at the following factual information …

Game 1 – Box Score, GameFlow

Game 2 – Box Score, Game Flow

What you should be able to see is that:

1. In Game 1

Antonio McDyess [-8] played 18:57 … and got 0:00 in the 4th quarter.
Matt Bonner [-7] played 13:28 … and got 0:00 in the 4th quarter.
Tim Duncan [-6] played 37:10 … and got 8:37 in the 4th quarter.

2. In Game 2

Antonio McDyess [+1] played 21:52 … and got 7.5 s in the 4th quarter.
Matt Bonner [0] played 15:00 … and got 44.7 s in the 4th quarter.
Tim Duncan [-6] played 39:20 … and got 9:31 in the 4th quarter.

3. In Game 1 …

With Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess on the floor together the Spurs played relatively even [i.e. -2] with the Suns.

With Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker on the floor together the Spurs were significantly better [i.e. +12] than the Suns.

4. In Game 2 …

With Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess on the floor together the Spurs played relatively even [i.e. +1] with the Suns.

With Tim Duncan, Antonio McDyess, Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker on the floor together the Spurs were, again, slightly better [i.e. +3] than the Suns.

5. The major problem San Antonio is having in this series, so far, is NOT rooted in Tim Duncan’s less-than Herculian defense vs the Suns’ “1-5 Pick and Roll/Pop” series but, instead, in Gregg Popovich’s pig-headed INSISTANCE on:

A. ”Going small,” in the 4th quarter …

rather than using a conventional “2 Bigs + 3 Littles” alignment:

Option 1
Duncan and McDyess, or Duncan and Bonner, or Duncan and Mahinmi

Option 2
Blair and McDyess, or Blair and Bonner, or Blair and Mahinmi

Option 3
Duncan and Blair

Option 4
Blair and Mahinmi

… no matter what type of line-up Phoenix decides to employ;

and,

B. Using the Spurs 5 best players …

i.e. Parker + Ginobili + Jefferson + McDyess + Duncan

together, as a unit, for as little as 8:23 and 10:12, respectively, in Game 1 and 2.

While this corner has a tremendous degree of R.E.S.P.E.C.T. for Gregg Popovich … as one of the very best NBA coaches over the last 30+ years … the simple fact is that whenever he becomes stubborn in the Playoffs, and insists on going with a “small” line-up for large stretches of individual games, despite the presence of other legitimate [i.e. equal or superior] alternatives – where the specific match-ups would NOT be in his opponent’s favour by such a wide margin - the Spurs become little more than “just another average team” and are regularly eliminated from post-season competition much sooner than they need to be.

For the Spurs’ sake, let’s hope that Coach Pop checks his ego at the door for tonight’s game 3, takes a closer look at the specific individual match-ups on the floor, and decides to use a different approach than what he’s used to this point in this series … which has put Antonio McDyess’s rear end on the bench for the 4th quarters of Game 1 and 2.

If he does … then, you should expect San Antonio to triumph this evening.

If he does not, however … then, you should expect to see the Phoenix Suns playing in the Western Conference Finals.

Deron Williams and the Jazz know what they’re doing

“With Chris Paul sidelined, is any point guard playing better than Deron Williams?”

There are a few things I try not to do. Among them:

• I try not to wake up my wife and kids when they’re sleeping.
• I try not to call people who have little children late at night.
• Realizing I’m a journalist, not a coach, I try not to make statements that rely strictly on my own cobbled-together basketball judgment.
• I try not to curse.

Last night I came this close to breaking all those rules …

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Given the already stated preference of this corner, when forced to choose between CP3 and D-Will …

It’s the Age of the Point Guard, in today’s NBA [Dec 18 2009]

it is now a simple fact that the age-old …

QUESTION of …

Who is the best Point Guard in the NBA today?

… needs to be asked and, then, answered, in a different way than it’s ever been asked before … 

considering THE WAY a certain member of the Cleveland Cavaliers has been conducting his on-court business since approximately Jan 11 2010.

LeBron James’ Complete Game Log

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THE CORRECT ANSWER is … LeBron James.

[... which is something this corner has been advocating for at least the last 2+ years quite some time ... i.e. Best Point Guards in the NBA: An Update, Jan 30 2008]

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PS. In sharp contrast to other NBA experts/analysts/fans/etc. … there is a good reason why many of the statements and observations which appear on this blog do, in fact, rely mostly on “cobbled-together basketball judgment” rather than elaborate prose and/or the use of unnecessarily complicated new-age statistics. For those of you who took the time to read what Henry Abbott wrote in his introduction, it’s important to always be aware of How the Principle of Opposite functions in The Game of Hoops.

This corner of the blogosphere has been saying for at least the last 2+ years that Deron Williams is, in fact, a better PG than the Annointed One, Chris Paul …  

However, despite the affection which exists here for the members of the TNT Crew, please let it still be known, to one and all, that there is also a VERY BIG difference between making a comparative statement like that, and subsequently christening D-Will as the No. 1 PG, overall, in the entire NBA today … whilest other top dogs, like:

Chauncey Billups
Steve Nash
Tony Parker, and
Jason Kidd

are still running, at near full-throttle, in the pound, and other still-as-yet wet-behind-the-ears young bucks, like:

Rajon Rondo
Devin Harris
Russell Westbrook
Derrick Rose
Rodney Stuckey
Monta Ellis
Tyreke Evans, and
Brandon Jennings

are just beginning to prowl.

Indeed, in the grand history of the game, you might not be able to identify any other era during which quite THIS many [and potentially even more than just the 14 names listed here] very-good-to-perhaps-great Point Guards roamed the floors of the NBA, all at once, on an every day basis.

Finally … a stats guru speaks who is at least on the right track.

How stats apply to individual match-ups for elite level NBA coaches
WW: Tracy McGrady is a player who has never helped his team as much as people thought. Allen Iverson — for one or two years he was really good.

The best player of the decade, though, I’d say, was Kevin Garnett. We have a rating over the last eight or nine years, and Garnett comes out number one. And I think everybody else [other stat experts] has that too, so that’s nice.

Although I don’t like Garnett. When I watch on TV, he’s turning too edgy. Chippy attitude.

Another guy who is totally overrated is Amare Stoudemire. I mean, he’s a stat stuffer. Troy Murphy gets great stats, but never does much for the team.

(UPDATE: Winston amends this statement: “With Golden State Troy Murphy was a stat stuffer who did little to help the team but with Indiana the last two years he has improved to where he is an above average NBA player.”)

There’s a bunch of guys like that.

Andre Iguodala, though. Whenever he’s on the court for Philadelphia, they’re great. Whenever he’s off, they suck. God knows why he’s a good player. I watch him play, and I don’t know. (More on Iguodala.)

Jason Kidd is a little like that, but you can see why he makes guys better. But not Iguodala.

HA: Sometimes I feel like I can see Kidd’s greatness, but other times, at this stage of his career, I can’t. 

WW: Kidd can’t guard a fast guard. They go right by him like he’s standing still. They always did. Against Chris Paul … Jason Kidd might as well be standing still on defense.

But the interesting thing: Devin Harris can nail Tony Parker. But Steve Nash can beat Devin Harris. But Parker can beat Nash.

It’s not transitive. We can show that. That’s really interesting. That shouldn’t be. But it is. There are probably a lot of other things like that.

If coaches see other examples of things like that, we can back them up with data. Del Harris really got to like us, I think, because a lot of times our numbers confirmed what he thought. It’s hard to argue with the numbers when you’ve got a full amount of data on it.

Last year [Maverick assistant] Terry Stotts did a really great job asking us questions. Before the Spurs series, they asked us about Antoine Wright.  He’s not on the team anymore, thank god. OK, he had a bad rating in our system. But the fascinating thing was, when he played small forward, he was good. When he played shooting guard, he was terrible. So we can break that down. I can find every combination where he was small forward and he was good. Every combination where he was shooting guard he was terrible. 

Against the Spurs, they used him as a small forward and he was great. Every time he played for Howard at small forward, they killed the Spurs.

Things like this … I needed the coach to ask me the question because I would have never thought of it. You don’t just throw the numbers at the coach, because, I mean, 500,000 numbers! But if the coach understands what he’s doing, and says “I think Antoine Wright can play small forward can you tell me if that’s true?” That’s how you use the stuff.

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THIS is the direction in which basketball analysis NEEDS to go.

Sincere thanks to you … Wayne Winston!

PS. It’s the job of an elite level basketball coach to answer correctly the questions which Wayne Winston doesn’t happen to have the specific training, knowledge base and experience to discern properly on his own … e.g. What really makes Andre Iguodala as good as he is given what the “average” stats/numbers have to say about his level of play?  Those who can DO THAT are the ones with the type of Basketball Analysis/Acumen you SHOULD BE listening to in order to better understand, How The NBA Game Actually Works, Based On Individual Match-ups.

PPS. Class for NBA 101 is now finished for today … or, in fact, for some of you, at least, it may just be starting … from scratch.

PPPS. Btw … What Wayne Winston had to say in this piece about there being no distinction necessary between the use of players like Brandon Bass [#4/PF] and Dirk Nowitzki [#5/C], on the court together, regardless of their position, and the effect/thinking of Mike D’Antoni, just happens to be wrong.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 7– @ San Antonio [Mon Nov 09]

The end of the first road trip won’t come soon enough for Toronto. Although there are likely going to be cross-match opportunities for the Raptors to exploit Bargnani’s perimeter skills vs The Big Fundamental this should be more than cancelled out on the other end of the floor when either TD or The Dyessman will get an opportunity to ply his trade vs Il Mago. Tony Parker, based on his combination of quickness and size, is one of only a handful of starting PG’s in the league [e.g. CP3 and Devin Harris] that present a truly difficult match-up situation for Jose Calderon. In general, the Spurs have too many weapons for the Raptors to contend with successfully. This is a very solid San Antonio team … with a slew of solid back-ups on their 15-man roster … that will be a legitimate threat to reach the WC Finals again this season. A major challenge for Jay Triano & Co., on the other hand, will involve how to avoid pointing an accusing finger towards their star player, Chris Bosh [in a contract year], while getting off to a slow start.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 2-5

Bowen retires after 12 seasons
Bowen was not the most obvious starter for a championship team early in his career. Drafted by Miami from Cal State Fullerton, he spent several seasons bouncing between clubs and earning little playing time.

But after his 2001 arrival in San Antonio, he found his place, eventually earning defensive player accolades and a regular starting job.

He said he hopes that will be his legacy.

“It’s not how you start but how you finish,” Bowen said. “I hope my legacy would be as someone that never was satisfied with just being where they were.”

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The entire “Bruce Bowen Story” is legendary, inspirational stuff.

A hollywood producer should make a major motion picture about the life and times of Bruce “Karate Kid” Bowen.

re: why he’s quitting now

Once a player like BB has in fact scratched and clawed his way to the top of the mountain, it’s an exceptionally difficult thing to do, to go somewhere else … where the people don’t know what you know about what it takes to climb THAT mountain.

Heart-felt kudos to Bruce Bowen!

You made all your dreams come true.

Just a few, in this world, earn the right to say THAT.

Please, see Peter Holt.

Please, see the San Antonio Spurs.

Please, see the Spurs’ 4 World Championship Larry O’Brien Trophies.

Now …

Please, read about THE WAY a Winner Thinks When The Going Gets Tough.

When Spurs majority owner Peter Holt walked into the room for the NBA Board of Governors meeting here earlier this week, he was greeted with a cacophony of catcalls and good-natured ribbing.

His fellow owners couldn’t believe the supposedly thrifty Holt had signed off on one of the most expensive offseason makeovers in recent Spurs memory.

“They all think I’m cheap as hell,” Holt said.

Not anymore. In the span of less than a month, Holt and his ownership group have done some serious damage to their miserly reputation.

In the eye of an uncertain economy that prompted many NBA teams to put a lock on their wallets this offseason, the Spurs went barreling past the luxury tax threshold to acquire Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess.

The Spurs already are about $8 million over the dollar-for-dollar tax line, with still more roster pieces to add. The final tariff bill is likely to breach $10 million, on top of a payroll pushing $80 million.

In his first interview since the offseason began, Holt this week explained the reasoning behind the Spurs’ out-of-character summertime spending spree. In Vegas terms, it was time to go all in.

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Whether or not the San Antonio Spurs actually win the 2009-2010 NBA title really isn’t the point.

What matters most of all is Mr. Holt’s versatility, intelligence, commitment to excellence and … perhaps, No. 1 on the list … actual Level of R.E.S.P.E.CT. for [1] the Spurs loyal fans, [2] RC Buford & Gregg Popovich, [3] Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili & Tony Parker, et al.

As that great, down-home, southern gentleman-philospher, Bum Phillips [Houston Oilers], once said, about the defining characteristic of a fabulous former NFL head coach by the name of Don Shula [Miami Dolphins]:

“He’s so good, he can take his’n and beat yours’n; then take yours’n and beat his’n.”

That, dear friends, right there, is a Prime Example of A Man who actually knows what he’s doing in the Great Arena of Life. 

For Raptors fans who think that the recent 4-team trade was in fact based on the commitment of MLSE to do what’s necessary to win a League Championship, one day in the not-too-distant future:

Colangelo still tinkering with Raptors roster
“You have to find a way to get the right pieces in this year and roll forward and keep below that luxury tax level,” Colangelo said. “It’s going to get tighter and it’s something to contend with.”

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you SHOULD seriously re-evaluate that specific line of thinking.

When you hear Bryan Colangelo speak next of DOING WHAT’S NECESSARY TO ACCOMPLISH THAT SPECIFIC GOAL, down-the-road, please feel free to notify yours truly [perhaps, via email] right away!

The Raptors’ GM … and chief representative of MLSE, on the hoops side of the operation … talks, repeatedly, about being “committed to building a winning team” BUT he NEVER EVER takes the NEXT STEP and mentions something about,

“Doing what’s necessary to actually have a legitimate shot at winning the League Championship.”

What’s the reason for this?

Does he actually know what this involves, in today’s NBA, regarding such things as: i. Basketball Philosophy, ii. Coaching Philosophy, iii. Player Personnel, and iv. The Financial Commitment Required [etc.]?

The teams that are “honestly” trying to WIN the Championship in the NBA, these days, know full well that in order to give themselves a “real” chance at accomplishing this goal, they are going to have to accept the fact that they will be paying The Luxury Tax … which is really Nothing More than the “current toll fare” … in return for The Right to be able to drive on that specific Super-Highway.

The highest level of competition possible is where the Big Boyz play and that’s the going freight just to ante into the game.

The San Antonio Spurs … located in a small-to-mid sized market, but with a 1st-class ownership group [expertly led by Peter Holt] and a Top Notch GM/Head Coach tandem  [i.e. RC Buford & Gregg Popovich] … are a prime example of a team that is now fully aware of this and, therefore, chose to act accordingly this off season … i.e. as you can plainly see from their recent decisions to:

* Retain their best 3 players [i.e. Time Duncan, Manu Ginobili & Tony Parker]

* Retain a veteran like Michael Finley

* Select 3 new players in the 2009 NBA Draft [i.e. DeJuan Blair, No. 37, Jack McClinton, No. 51, and Nando De Colo, No. 53] who are ready to compete right away

* Trade for Richard Jefferson [i.e. another high end player], and

* Sign Antonio McDyess [UFA]

While the Toronto Raptors, on the other hand … chose to go a different route, replete with a Magician’s Wand & Cloak, a rabbit, a head stand, a glass of bottled water, a still dry shirt – with an exceedingly high collar - and an accompanying 3-piece band of partners in crime.

There are just a few teams in this League that are legitimately trying to WIN It All [i.e. Category One] …

then, there’s Everybody Else [i.e. who can be further sub-divided into two additional specific Categories: Two. Those trying to field a highly "competitive" team, in the process of turning a profit, annually; and, Three. Those simply trying to survive in hopes of maybe turning a profit].

DO NOT MAKE THE MISTAKE OF THINKING THAT WHAT THE RAPTORS DID WITH THEIR PARTICIPATION IN THIS 4-TEAM TRADE WAS DESIGNED TO SHIFT THEM FROM CATEGORY TWO INTO CATEGORY ONE.

It was not; not by a long shot.

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Related:

Which franchise made out best from the 4-team trade?

What you see below, was first written in this space May 30, 2008:

This is a special team

The defending NBA champions were dethroned last night by the Los Angeles Lakers, who were tabbed by this corner on Dec 25/07 as the “Sleeper Pick” to win the title this season.

In turn, earlier this morning, the following is what yours truly wrote on another blog, 20 second time-out … which, btw, is highly recommended reading for those in search of insight into how the NBA game actually works …

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On December 25, 2007 I identified this year’s Lakers team as my “Sleeper Pick” to WIN THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP THIS SEASON, when LA was still in arears of Phoenix in the Pacific Division of the Western Conference and BEFORE they acquired Pau Gasol … THAT’S HOW GOOD I knew these Lakers were this season.

The only team in the West that could have beaten them this year was the Spurs, if San Antonio was completely healthy, which was clearly not the case given the injury to Manu Ginobili (their most dynamic scorer).

Whichever one of Boston or Detroit comes out of the Eastern Conference is going to have its hands full with this Lakers team in the NBA Finals as, right now, this squad is very, very good.

However, of even more interest to me (and, possibly, other astute NBA historians), at the moment, is where their team is going to go NEXT SEASON … when they fully re-integrate ANDREW BYNUM + TREVOR ARIZA into their line-up.

From my perspective, others would do well to carve in stone the forecast I made earlier this spring ['08] that says,

“The 2008-2009 LA LAKERS WILL WIN 70+ games enroute to capturing another of what will eventually be several more NBA championships … if their team remains relatively injury-free.”

What Phil Jackson & Co. have constructed in LA, right now, is a team that will one day go down in NBA history beside the Chicago Bulls (of Michael Jordan) and the old Boston Celtics (of Bill Russell) as arguably the greatest of all-time.

One of the differences between me and other NBA observers is that frequently I can tell you in advance what is going to happen, with a high degree of accuracy, before it does NOT just after-the-fact.

Enjoy the moment for what it is …

“Life is fast and things happen quickly.” – Derek Fisher

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May 19, 2008 … Charles Barkley actually had it right, but was just afraid to step that far out on a limb, in advance, vs Chris Webber & Co.

Fortunately, this corner has no such trepidation.

As was said earlier this week, in this space … it will take a special team to eliminate this group of San Antonio Spurs from the title hunt.

This Lakers’ squad is now that team.

Kudos to Air Force One, the Big Fundamental, TP, GINOBILI!, etc. … the better team won this Western Conference Final (watch ’til the end of the vid-clip).

Now … just as it was told to you, in advance, earlier this season, on Feb 9, 2008, what would eventually happen in the Pacific Division and the Western Conference …

And so It Begins, again … as Phil Jackson now heads toward what will eventually be his (legendary) 10th NBA Championship, as an NBA head coach.

The King is dead. Long live the King.

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381 days later …

Nuff said.

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Related:

NBA Playoffs – 2008 Finals Preview 

History in the making … 1 down