khandor’s sports blog

As was mentioned in this space on Monday …

The adjustments which Miami needed to make in order to win their series with Chicago included:

1. Giving increased playing time to [A] Mike Miller/SF, [B] Zydrunas Ilgauskas/C, [C] Eddie House/OG and [D] Udonis Haslem/PF];

2. Reducing the playing time of [A] Mike Bibby [PG] and [B] Jamaal Magloire [C]; and,

3. Having Dwayne Wade [OG] check Derrick Rose [PG].

Given the result of last night’s Game 2, it is now fair to say that a main reason this series is tied, 1-1, is because Erik Spoelstra [Head Coach] actually implemented several of the “strategic” adjustments which were recommend, in advance, right here.

For example:

#3) For significant stretches of the 4th quarter, Miami used the following 5-man unit with the associated Individual Match-ups:

PG, Dwayne Wade [vs D-Rose]
OG, Mike Miller [vs Keith Bogans or Kyle Korver]
SF, LeBron James [vs Luol Deng or Ronnie Brewer]
PF, Udonis Haslem [vs Carlos Boozer or Taj Gibson] 
C, Chris Bosh [vs Joakim Noah or Omer Asik]

#2.B) Jamaal Magloire was used for only 5 minutes.

#1.A) Mike Miller was used for 18 minutes.

#1.D) Udonis Haslem was used for 23 minutes.

If Coach Spoelstra wants to ensure that the Heat will win this series … by an ever-widening margin, then … all he really needs to do is implement the remaining “strategic” adjustments which were listed here on Monday that he chose to disregard in Game 2, i.e. 2.A, 1.B, and 1.C.

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PS. Last night, actually Coach Spoestra did a solid job of earning his salary. Unfortunately, the same thing cannot be said for Coach Thibodeau … especially, when he fell asleep at the switch, and was much too slow in substituting Ronnie Brewer back into the game, in the latter stages of the 4th quarter, after Coach Spoelstra showed that he was going to milk the “3-1 Pick-and-Pop” – with LeBron James as Miami’s primary ball-handler, since Kyle Korver/OG was still in the game and being used to check Mike Bibby/PG

PPS. BTW … For those who still believe that Chris Bosh is incapable of playing Center for a title-winning team in the NBA, last night’s game serves as Exhibit A for how exactly this young man can best be used by an organization that is being run by a GM who really does know what he is doing when it comes to being able to win it all.

At the end of the 2008-2009 regular season, the main pieces for the Raptors and the Bulls, respectively, looked like this:

Toronto at Chicago [April 15, 2009]

When you then look at the main pieces for these same two teams when they played each other at the end of the 2009-2010 regular season, what you see is the following:

Chicago at Toronto [April 11, 2010]

When you then look at the main pieces for these same two teams when they played each other at the end of the just completed regular season, what you see is the following:

Toronto at Chicago [April 2, 2011]

Key differences and similarities?

1. Lead Executives, at the time:

2008-2009
CHICAGO, John Paxson
TORONTO, Bryan Colangelo and Maurizio Gherardini

2009-2010
CHICAGO, John Paxson and Gar Forman
TORONTO, Bryan Colangelo and Maurizio Gherardini

2010-2011
CHICAGO, John Paxson and Gar Forman
TORONTO, Bryan Colangelo and Maurizio Gherardini

2. Head Coaches, at the time:

2008-2009
CHICAGO, Vinnie Del Negro
TORONTO, Jay Triano

2009-2010
CHICAGO, Vinnie Del Negro
TORONTO, Jay Triano

2010-2011
CHICAGO, Tom Thibodeau
TORONTO, Jay Triano

3. Key Players, at the time:

2008-2009
CHICAGO
Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng [DNP-injury], Ben Gordon, John Salmons, Tyrus Thomas, Kirk Hinrich, Brad Miller and Tim Thomas

TORONTO
Chris Bosh, Shawn Marion, Jose Calderon, Anthony Parker and Andrea Bargnani [DNP-injury]

2009-2010
CHICAGO
Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Kirk Hinrich and Brad Miller

TORONTO
Chris Bosh [DNP-injury], Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu, Amir Johnson, Sonny Weems, DeMar DeRozan and Reggie Evans

2010-2011
CHICAGO
Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Carlos Boozer, CJ Watson, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, Kurt Thomas, Omir Asik and Rasual Butler

TORONTO
Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani, DeMar DeRozan, Amir Johnson, Ed Davis, Jerryd Bayless, James Johnson, Leandro Barbosa, Sonny Weems, Linas Kleiza and Reggie Evans

4. Won-Loss Records, at the time

2008-2009
CHICAGO, 41-41
TORONTO, 33-49

2009-2010
CHICAGO, 39-41 [similar]
TORONTO, 38-42 [slightly better]

2010-2011
CHICAGO, 56-20 [significantly better]
TORONTO, 20-55 [significantly worse]

Since their introduction to the NBA, 16 years ago, what the Toronto Raptors have displayed is: [1] A remarkable inability to hold onto their “best” players from previous seasons who have solid upside and were actually selected by the team in the annual Draft; and, [2] A disturbing penchant for selecting the “wrong” players in the annual Draft who have limited upside and then remain fixtures with the team for far too many years without becoming very productive overall … unlike the Chicago Bulls.

Until the Raptors properly address the deficiencies which exist for their franchise at the Executive level, the Head Coach level, and the Marquee Player level, what position they select in any given NBA Draft Lottery is quite immaterial … if the long term goal is eventually being able to win a League Championship.

In last night’s Game 1, the Chicago Bulls dismantled the Miami Heat in the second half of the 3rd quarter and the entire 4th quarter.

Final Score:
Miami 82, Chicago 103
Box Score, Game 1

This is how the Heat chose to set their Individual Match-ups:

What SHOULD have been a ‘slight Advantage‘ situation for the Heat actually played out as a ‘decided Disadvantage‘ situation when Miami chose to not use all of the resources at their disposal properly, by giving very little playing time to:

Mike Miller [MP/3]
Udonis Haslem [MP/4]
Eddie House [MP/2], and
Zydrunas Ilgauskas [DNP-I],

while giving significant amounts of PT to:

Mike Bibby [MP/22+]
Mario Chalmers [22+], and
Jamal Magloire [MP/10].

If the Heat persist with the type of rotation they used in Game for the balance of this series, then, unfortunately, their solid run in the post-season will soon come to an abrupt halt.

If, however, Miami decides to adjust their Individual Match-ups for the balance of this series … or, at least, until Chicago is forced to respond in-kind:

then, the Heat will significantly improve their chances of winning this series in 6 games.

Key player personnel decisions like these are where head coaches actually earn their money in the playoffs, or not.

Prior to the start of the NBA’s Conference Semi-finals, this is how this corner would have rated the respective head coaches who were still alive in the current post-season:

EAST

1 Chicago/Tom Thibodeau [Has a chance to become special]
5 Atlanta/Larry Drew [Average]

2 Miami/Erik Spoelstra [Has a chance to become special]
3 Boston/Doc Rivers [Top Notch]

WEST

2 LA Lakers/Phil Jackson [All-Time Great]
3 Dallas/Rick Carlisle [Top Notch]

8 Memphis/Lionel Hollins [Above average and getting better each season]
4 Oklahoma City/Scott Brooks [Average]

The one series which has already been decided was effected significantly by the fact that Rick Carlisle is an elite level head coach, who just happened to “out-coach” a living legend … when it came to using his available personnel properly [i.e. the best way possible].

Although Phil Jackson is many wonderful things, as a head coach, one of them is NOT being categorized properly as an extremely flexible in-game tactician.

Like many coaches the world over, Phil Jackson is someone who is very good at what he happens to be very good at doing … which is developing a team that is very talented and getting them well-prepared to play a highly specific way without much deviation from the pre-established game-plan.

When a coach of this ilk has the best team, in a specific match-up, from a personnel standpoint, s/he usually does a terrific job getting them to perform at their highest level of effectiveness which, in turn, is usually good enough to result in a series victory.

However, when a coach of this ilk just happens to find her/himself facing an opponent that is relatively equal, in terms of overall personnel or, perhaps, even slightly superior, at least, at certain key positions, then, this type of highly structured coach is also vulnerable to getting beat by an adversary with a higher degree of versatility, when it comes to developing, implementing and executing an unorthodox game-plan.

QUESTION 1

Which set of primary rotational personnel is superior, if you line-up the players on the Mavericks’ roster and compare to the group on the Lakers’?

Dallas v Los Angeles

STARTERS
Fisher v Kidd
Bryant v Stevenson
Artest v Marion
Gasol v Nowitzki
Bynum [Def & Reb] v Chandler [Def & Reb]

KEY SUBS
Blake v Barea
Brown v Terry
Barnes [Def & Reb] v Stojakovic [Off]
Odom [Off] v Haywood [Def & Reb]

Los Angeles 1. Dallas 5.

QUESTION 2

But …

Which set is in fact superior, if the Individual Match-ups are adjusted to look like this:

Dallas v Los Angeles

STARTERS
Brown v Kidd
Bryant v Stevenson
Artest v Marion
Odom [Off, Def & Reb] v Nowitzki [Off, Def & Reb]
Gasol v Chandler

KEY SUBS
Fisher [Def & Reb] v Barea [Off]
Barnes [Def & Reb] v Terry [Off]
Walton [Def & Reb] v Stojakovic [Off]
Bynum [Def & Reb] v Haywood [Def & Reb]

Los Angeles 2. Dallas 1.

The Lakers were eliminated from the NBA Playoffs on Sunday, primarily, because their GM, Mitch Kupchak, made a series of ill-advised personnel decisions that significiantly weakened the overall strength of their roster, from the end of the 2009-2010 season.

However, Los Angles should still have been good enough to overcome this group of Dallas Mavericks, if Phil Jackson would have been willing to deviate from his highly structured rotation and used Shannon Brown [as a Starter], Lamar Odom [as a Starter], Derek Fisher [as a Key Sub], Andrew Bynum [as a Key Sub], Matt Barnes [as a Key Sub], Luke Walton [as a Key Sub] and Steve Blake [not at all] in the right way, given the personnel available to both teams AND the way that Rick Carlisle set the Mavericks’ rotation.

Kudos to the Mavericks’ head coach, who has been one of the best practicioners in the NBA for several seasons.

Unfortunately …

The on-line hoops community today is strife with the sort of non-basketball ‘pseudo basketball analysis’ that does not really succeed in advancing a better understanding of how the game is actually played best, in the NBA. 

To wit:

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Exhibit A – A Rose does not Equal Love – Revisited

How did Chicago do this?  The front office essentially followed a very good formula: keep all of the team’s good players from 2009-10 and get most of the good players from Utah. This formula has produced a very good team. 

Unfortunately in the NBA, all of the regular season awards are individual based. This means Derrick Rose will get the credit for what was essentially a team effort. While it is worth virtually nothing, I would like to award the Chicago Bulls with the Most Valuable Team award this season and reiterate that Rose is not the MVP.

One last note…

Some might argue that Chicago’s players are essentially “not bad” because of Rose and/or Coach Thibodeau.  But if we look at the productivity of these players this season and what these veterans did in 2009-10, we see that this team’s results are not surprising.  As the following table indicates (numbers from NerdNumbers), most players on this team are offering essentially the same production seen last year. 

The primary exceptions – Derrick Rose, Ronnie Brewer, and Carlos Boozer – are easy to explain. 

• Rose is young, and young players get better.
• Brewer is essentially offering what he did prior to 2009-10
• And Boozer – who has been hurt – is offering less this year

In sum, we don’t need to argue that this team is succeeding because of its dynamic point guard or amazing coach.  The Bulls story is really about choosing productive players.  And the Bulls – as the study into “bad” players indicates – have been very good at making these choices.    

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The Chicago Bulls are not being propelled to 1st place in the Eastern Conference standings this season because they have the most non-bad basketball players on their roster, in comparison with the other teams in the league.

re: Rose is young, and young players get better.

Do ALL young players get better, according to a simplistic metric like WP?

If not, then, it is simply fallacious to assert that THIS is THE reason for the improvement which Derrick Rose has shown THIS season.

re: Brewer is essentially offering what he did prior to 2009-10

Did the Utah Jazz teams that Ronnie Brewer played for prior to THIS season reach the heights that THIS season’s Chicago Bulls are approaching?

If not, then, it is simply fallacious to assert that THIS is THE reason the Bulls, with Ronnie Brewer on-board, are playing outstanding basketball THIS season.

re: And Boozer – who has been hurt – is offering less this year

It is simply fallacious to assert that THE reason the Bulls are playing outstanding basketball THIS season is because they have kept ALL of their “good” players from last season AND added most of the “good” players from the Jazz – i.e. Boozer, Brewer and Korver – while, SIMULTANEOUSLY, characterizing one of those three key players as, essentially, providing LESS production THIS season than he did last year for Utah.

The fact is …

Part I

This is what the Bulls’ rotation was last season when they were eliminated from the 1st Round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs, in Game 5, by the Cleveland Cavaliers:

STARTERS
Rose [PG] + Hinrich [OG] + Deng [SF] + Gibson [PF] + Noah [C]

KEY SUBS
Murray [PG/OG], Warrick [SF/PF] and Miller [C]

HEAD COACH
Vinnie Del Negro

In comparison, this is what the Bulls’ rotation was two nights ago, when they dismantled Kevin Love’s Minnesota Timberwolves:

STARTERS
Rose [PG] + Bogans [OG] + Deng [SF] + Boozer [PF] + Thomas [C]

KEY SUBS
Watson [PG/OG], Korver [OG, Brewer [SF], Gibson [PF] and Asik [C]

… with Joakim Noah [C], Chicago’s 2nd most valuable player sitting out this game …

HEAD COACH
Tom Thibodeau

on their way to winning Game 54 THIS season.

Part II

Keith Bogans [from Orlando] was not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

Kurt Thomas [from the scrap heap] was not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

CJ Watson [from Golden State] was not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

Omer Asik [from the Euroleague] was not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

Tom Thibodeau [from the Boston Celtics] was not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

The Team Defense, and TEAM REBOUNDING, and Team Offense, and TEAM UNITY, and Team CRUNCH TIME Performance, etc. – i.e. Ubuntu! – which the Bulls have shown, thus far, THIS season were not obtained from the Utah Jazz.

It truly makes the stomuch turn, over and over again, to read ‘pseudo basketball analysis’ that looks like THIS … which, unfortunately, proliferates the internet today and is, basically, a regurgitation of select stat categories, manipulated to achieve a desired outcome … in place of actual Basketball Analysis which is focused on Individual Match-ups, Coaching, Part and/vs Whole Team Construction, Team Chemistry/Cohesion, Skill Sets, X’s and O’s, Strategies & Tactics, etc.

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FWIW …

From the perspective of this corner:

* Derrick Rose SHOULD earn his 1st MVP Award THIS season … for THE WAY he has performed on the court WHILE becoming THE unquestioned Leader of the Chicago Bulls, who are currently in 1st Place, in the Eastern Conference; 

* Tom Thibodeau SHOULD earn his 1st COTY Award THIS season … for the fantastic TEAM ETHOS he has instilled in THIS specific collection of players on the Bulls’ roster, and the commitment this team has towards DEFENSE, REBOUNDING and SHARED TEAM OFFENSE;

and,

* The management tandem of Gar Forman + John Paxson SHOULD earn their 1st EOTY Award THIS season … for constructing a REAL TEAM, which plays the game the ‘right way’, courtesy of a series of inter-related – and absolutely terrific – personnel moves, predicated on a highly accurate understanding of what their team’s specific strengths and weaknesses have been for the last several years.

The influence of Tom Thibodeau - new head coach – is already front and center in the day-to-day operation of Da Bulls.

Exhibit A

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Would you deal Joakim Noah for Carmelo Anthony?

In hiring Thibodeau, you have put yourself on a course to make defense your calling card. “The Bulls two best defenders, by far,” says David Thorpe, “are Luol Deng and Joakim Noah. Coaches can help players improve at that end, but it’s asking an awful lot to make a great defense out of Carmelo Anthony, Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer.”

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If Chicago eventually rejects a proposed trade with Denver that would involve an exchange of Noah [i.e. a top notch defender] for Anthony [i.e. a top notch scorer] it’s a clear sign where the priority is going to be placed for the next few seasons in Da Bulls systems of play.

Exhibit B

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After five seasons with the Boston Celtics, forward Brian Scalabrine has agreed to a non-guaranteed contract with the Chicago Bulls, a league source told Yahoo! Sports.

Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau wanted Scalabrine as part of his first season in Chicago and pushed hard for him with general manager Gar Forman and vice president John Paxson, sources said.

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When it comes to winning and losing basketball games, the actual “contributions” – both, on and off the court – of an authentically high end 13th man [i.e. multi-dimensional and of exceptionally sound character] to a well-functioning elite level team, are just as important as the on-court “production numbers” of its marquee players.

Given the following roster of players:

Chicago should have little trouble earning a mid-level playoff spot this season, under the direction of a standout defensive-minded practicioner like Tom Thibodeau.  

Raptors’ inconsistency a cause for concern
One telling play in Friday’s loss was a dunk by Boston’s Paul Pierce over Chris Bosh that ended with Pierce being hit with a taunting technical for flexing over the falling Raptor. That brought coach Jay Triano and his staff off the bench to scream at Pierce, but elicited no response from the other players.

“I was pretty focused on what was going on in front of me. I didn’t realize until I watched it on tape that we had backed off as much as we did,” Triano said. “I think if I was Chris I would confront my teammates.

“Any time one of your guys goes down – and you don’t have to go out there and start fighting – just go over and help your teammate and we didn’t even do that. He laid there on the floor without anybody going over to see how he was.”

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PART I

A Top Notch NBA head coach does NOT talk in this way, concerning what happens to one of HIS players in a game:

“I was pretty focused on what was going on in front of me. I didn’t realize … ”

A Top Notch NBA head coach is aware of EVERY SINGLE THING that happens on the floor, and on the bench, with regard to HIS team.

A Top Notch NBA head coach … misses NOTHING.

Ever.

Because he is just THAT aware of:

1. What’s happened in the game, to that point;

2. What’s happening in the game, at that exact moment; and,

3. What’s most likely ABOUT to happen in the game, in the immediate future.

This is one of the personal attributes which separates a Top Notch NBA head coach from everyone else. 

PART II

A Top Notch NBA head coach does NOT talk in this way, either:

A. To;

or,

B. About;

the players on HIS own team.

He does NOT use the phrase:

“I think if I was ____ ____, I would ________ __ _________.”

He does NOT talk in public … either to, or about, HIS players … in terms of hypothetical directives.

A Top Notch NBA head coach is, either:

A. Purposely obtuse/indirect; or,

B. Purposely acute/direct;

in his dealings with reporters, scribes, bloggers, etc., concerning goings-on with HIS players, in order to convey a highly specific message that either:

i. Relieves the pressure of a situation from the entire team; or,

ii. Narrows the focus to a certain thing/individual within the entire group.

Of all the goings-on which have occurred in Raptorville, to this point, this season … these specific words spoken by their head coach, Jay Triano, are the most disconcerting.   

FACTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT’S INCIDENT VS BOSTON

1. The first Raptors’ coach to get up from his seat, in response to what was done to Chris Bosh [by Paul Pierce] … was ALEX ENGLISH.

2. The most demonstrative Raptors’ coach who actually went after the Celtics’ bench contingent [i.e. Doc Rivers, Tom Thibodeau, Rasheed Wallace, etc.], in response to what was done to Chris Bosh [by Paul Pierce] … was MARC IAVARONI.

The Raptors have assembled a team in the image of Bryan Colangelo … and, it’s going to be most interesting, indeed, to see where they’ll go from here.