khandor’s sports blog

The NBA is a league with 63 years of history, and any franchise which truly aspires to win the championship, one day in the future, but refuses to acknowledge the primacy of the 3 main aspects of basketball success …

#1 Team Defense,

#2 Rebounding,

and,

#3 Team [not individual] Offense

… is simply kidding itself, as well as its loyal fanbase.

As Pat Riley so aptly said, years ago, while winning back-to-back titles with the original ShowTime LA Lakers:

“No Rebounds; No Rings.”

and,

as KG & Co. have so eloquently and rhythmically espoused, en masse, for the last few years …

What it takes to win the NBA Championship really does involve making a total Team Commitment to playing the game the RIGHT WAY.

Congratulations to the LA Lakers organization for learning its lessons well, and being able to ‘walk the walk.’

… it may be too late for certain members of the basketball community to offer an apology to the Orlando Magic.

For the record:

PART A

This is what esteemed basketball writer Adrian Wojnarowski had to say about the state of the Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic playoff series on Monday, May 25:

———————————

Magic provide only a tease in East finals

Until they prove differently, these Magic are exactly a team that wanted to win one game and say it didn’t get swept. There’s still no explanation for that gutless Game 3 performance, for giving away Games 1 and 2 in Orlando.

“Yeah, you’ve got to play one game at a time, but you have to have a belief somewhere that you can win the series,” Van Gundy insisted. “Otherwise, there’s just not enough to sustain you and keep you in the game.”

That isn’t true, because the Celtics obliterated the Magic’s spirit with those victories in Orlando and everyone could see that on Saturday night in Boston. When it mattered most, the Magic backed down and quit. This wasn’t character on Monday night, just the Magic hanging around and stealing a game when the Celtics looked like they had the Los Angeles Lakers on their minds.

This wasn’t resolve out of the Magic, this was merely a stay of execution. Yes, someone asked Vince Carter where did that resolve come from, and the first word out of his mouth? “Within.”

Within what? Within the make-believe land where a $16 million-a-year player pretends he has the professional pride of his tiny point guard and monstrous center? There are no historic comebacks coming out of the Orlando Magic, no proving to the world why they never should have been counted out. The Magic had that chance in this series and it’s long gone now.

No validation in victory on Monday night, just indictment – just a shame that it took this long out of the Magic, that it never, ever should’ve come to this in the Eastern Conference finals.

———————————

PART B

Now, today, 3 days and 2 hard-earned victories by the Magic later, this what Mr. Wojnarowski is saying:

———————————

Bruised Celtics need a leg to stand in Game 6

The tone and trajectory of the series have changed dramatically because Boston is battered, beleaguered and no longer playing peerless ball. In a month when the Boston Bruins lost a 3-0 series lead to the Philadelphia Flyers, in a city that lived the ecstasy of the Red Sox’s forever comeback from 3-0 on the Yankees, there promises to be genuine tension in the Garden. “We made it look easy early on and now it is becoming a fight,” the Celtics’ Kevin Garnett(notes) said.

———————————

Really?

The “tone” and “trajectory” of this series have now changed?

PART C

In sharp contrast to what Mr. Wojnarowski has written about this series to-date …

This is what’s been said in this space over the course of the last week:

What Stan Van Gundy needs to do in order to generate open shots for Rashard Lewis [Thu May 20]

What Doc Rivers has done to create individual match-up advantages vs Orlando [Thu May 20]

Specific reasons the Orlando Magic will win Game 5 and Game 6 [Tue May 25]

and

First time for everything … [Wed May 26]

If you are going to spend some of your time reading material on-line about what’s important in the NBA game it’s a good idea that you make your choices wisely.

============================

Item #1.

The exact moment this series changed in Orlando’s favour … had nothing to do with Dwight Howard, the Magic’s best player, but … was when SVG finally made the decision to include/add Brandon Bass to his regular rotation against the specific group of players Doc Rivers was using for Boston.

Item #2.

As long as the Magic could manage to “stay alive”, each game longer this series actually goes, Doc Rivers’ strategic decision to use only 4 players [in total] at the Point Guard, Off Guard and Small Forward positions … which was specifically what provided the Celtics with their extra boost in TEAM COHESION and EXECUTION during the initial games of the series, relative to what Orlando was producing … becomes more problematic for the men from Beantown.

In fact, not only are the Celtics’ Big Men “battered and bruised” but so, too, are their main players in the back-court positions now beginning to run out of gas. 

Item #3.

If SVG was actually willing to implement EACH of the other suggestions made in this space, since this series first began, there’s a very good chance that the specific outcomes for Game 6 and 7 would see Orlando win both by sizable margins.

Item #4.

Orlando is a superior team to Boston, as long as [1] Kevin Garnett is not 100% healthy, and [2] SVG does not get out-coached by Doc Rivers … by using his personnel in the wrong way and failing to implement the most effective game-plan [i.e. offensively, defensively and in terms of rebounding] … which is precisely what happened in Games 1, 2 and 3 of this series. 

Item #5.

When 2 legitimate heavy-weights go at it, it is prudent to wait until the full 15 rounds …

i.e. Game 1/rounds 1-3; Game 2/rounds 4-6; Game 3/rounds 7-9; Game 4/rounds 10-11; Game 5/rounds 12-13; Game 6/round 14; and, Game 7/round 15

… have actually been completed, in order to determine the winner.

With their victory in last night’s Game 4:

Orlando Magic 96
BOSTON CELTICS 92, OT
Complete Game Summary

the Magic have now forced a Game 5, back in Orlando, on Wednesday night [May 26, 835 PM ET] … which is good news for all those who originally forecast this to be a long series.

Despite what some reputable NBA observers might have to say today about the poor way Orlando has performed to-date …

————————————————————

Magic provide only a tease in East finals

Until they prove differently, these Magic are exactly a team that wanted to win one game and say it didn’t get swept. There’s still no explanation for that gutless Game 3 performance, for giving away Games 1 and 2 in Orlando.

“Yeah, you’ve got to play one game at a time, but you have to have a belief somewhere that you can win the series,” Van Gundy insisted. “Otherwise, there’s just not enough to sustain you and keep you in the game.”

That isn’t true, because the Celtics obliterated the Magic’s spirit with those victories in Orlando and everyone could see that on Saturday night in Boston. When it mattered most, the Magic backed down and quit. This wasn’t character on Monday night, just the Magic hanging around and stealing a game when the Celtics looked like they had the Los Angeles Lakers on their minds.

This wasn’t resolve out of the Magic, this was merely a stay of execution. Yes, someone asked Vince Carter where did that resolve come from, and the first word out of his mouth? “Within.”

Within what? Within the make-believe land where a $16 million-a-year player pretends he has the professional pride of his tiny point guard and monstrous center? There are no historic comebacks coming out of the Orlando Magic, no proving to the world why they never should have been counted out. The Magic had that chance in this series and it’s long gone now.

No validation in victory on Monday night, just indictment – just a shame that it took this long out of the Magic, that it never, ever should’ve come to this in the Eastern Conference finals.

————————————————————

… the facts are that:

1. The primary reason Orlando is trailing in this series in the first place is because of the poor job of coaching which Stan Van Gundy [i.e. SVG] did in Games 1, 2 and 3, putting their players in a gigantic hole, relative to the stellar work done by his counterpart with Boston, Doc Rivers.

If in doubt of this, please see Exhibits A, B, C and D.

2. [In spite of this] Orlando has still managed to play “well enough” to only lose Game 1 by a mere 4 points [i.e. 2 possessions] and Game 2 by a mere 3 points … while getting decidedly underwhelming performances from several of their key players [i.e. including: i. Vince Carter's untimely 2 missed FTA's in the final minute of Game 2; ii. Minimal point production from Rashard Lewis and Mickael Pietrus in Games 1, 2 and 3; Minimal point production from Dwight Howard in Games 1 and 3; iii. Poor defensive efforts from Matt Barnes and Marcin Gortat in Games 1, 2 and 3; iv. Minimal point production from Vince Carter in Game 3; and, v. Poor play, overall, by Jameer Nelson].

3. SVG has, at last, begun to unravel correctly the Rotation Riddle of this group of Celtics … which included his use of:

i. Both Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson, in Game 3, for the first time in this series, albeit for inconsequential minutes during garbage time;

ii. Bass, again, in Game 4 … this time for significant minutes during non-garbage time … albeit in, both, “right” [i.e. vs Glen Davis] and “wrong” [i.e. vs anybody else] individual match-up situations;

and,

iii. Vince Carter [vs Ray Allen or Rajon Rondo] and Mickael Pietrus [vs Paul Pierce] together for the first segment of meaningful minutes in the series to-date.

4. If SVG continues to implement the series of specific adjustments suggested in this space last week - i.e. see Exhibits A, B, C and D [above] - then the Magic will continue to improve their play as this series progresses.

5. If SVG continues to implement specific “set play offensive system” adjustments … like what was advocated in this space last week:

i. Increased “#1-#5 Pick and Rolls with #4 stationed in the original Weak Side Corner”;

and, what was on display in yesterday’s Game 4:

ii. The introduction of “#1-#4 Pick and Pops with #5 Clean-up Flare Screens for #4″;

iii. The introduction of ”#1-#5 and #4 Staggered Picks and Roll/Pops”;

to create higher quality shot attempts for [a more aggressively "driving and dishing"] Nelson, Howard and Lewis … then the Magic’s scoring output per game will continue to increase as this series progresses.

6. Good-to-great basketball players the world over - and throughout the history of the game - are only as good, or bad … in the playoffs … as their coach is actually capable of putting them into the correct positions to succeed … both, individually and collectively … when matched-up against a high calibre opponent, just as good or better than they are [i.e. in terms of players and coaches]. 

7. This series is still a long way from being over.  :-)

Doc Rivers …

By using:

* Only 3 players at the Point Guard and Off Guard positions;

* Only 2 players at the Small Forward position, with 1 of these players also functioning as the team’s Back-up Point Guard; and,

* 4 players at the Power Forward and Center positions;

has developed a tight 8-man rotation for the Celtics:

which has controlled the individual player match-ups in this series and, in the process, created levels of Team Cohesion and Execution [i.e. Offensively, Defensively, and Rebounding-wise] that are superior to what Orlando has been able to muster.

These two things are what have allowed Boston to establish early leads in both Game 1 and Game 2 and, then, forced Orlando to play catch-up for the balance of those contests.

What Stan Van Gundy needs to do now, in response, in order to counter these advantages, is:

which involves:

* Removing Matt Barnes [SF] from the starting line-up and replacing him with Mickael Pietrus [SF];

* Reducing significantly the minutes played by JJ Redick [OG] and Jason Williams [PG], while increasing the minutes played by Mickael Pietrus [SF];

* Using Vince Carter [OG] as the exclusive match-up vs Ray Allen [OG];

* Using Jameer Nelson [PG] as the exclusive match-up vs Rajon Rondo [PG];

* Having Vince Carter function as Orlando’s Back-up Point Guard, when Jameer Nelson … and, therefore, Rajon Rondo … is off the floor;

* Reducing significantly the minutes played by Rashard Lewis [PF];

* Using Rashard Lewis [PF] as the exclusive match-up vs Kevin Garnett [PF];

* Using either Brandon Bass [PF, or Marcin Gortat, PF/C] as the primary match-up [in addition to Dwight Howard, C] vs Glen Davis [PF]; and,

* Using Ryan Anderson [PF] as the exclusive match-up vs Rasheed Wallace [PF/C];

and would generate the respective Minutes Played [MP] indicated in the chart above for Game 3.

===========================

PS. BTW, those who would suggest that authentically “elite level coaching” makes almost no difference to the way that individual players perform, when it comes to determining “winners from losers,” in the NBA, simply do not understand what the game is all about at the highest levels of competition [e.g. The Celtics would not be leading this series, if Doc Rivers wasn't coaching their team]. 

In the aftermath of Game 2 …

—————————————————–

Stan Van Gundy will try to get Rashard Lewis more involved offensively

Rashard Lewis Needs to Improve Offensively if the Orlando Magic Want to Challenge the Boston Celtics

—————————————————–

This is now a central topic for discussion, on the part of Magic fans and other NBA observers.

In reality …

The answer is very simple.

———-

Orlando MUST:

1. Stop posting up Dwight Howard on the block.

2. Start using Dwight Howard in repeated ”2/3-5, High Middle, Pick and Roll” situations …

i. With the following players on the court:

Off Guard/#2 - Vince Carter

Center/#5 - Dwight Howard

Point Guard/#1 - Jameer Nelson

Small Forward/#3 - Mickael Pietrus

Power Forward/#4 - Rashard Lewis

ii. Located in the following positions on the court:

Off Guard/#2-Small Forward/#3, as The Ball-handler

Center/#5, as The Pick and Roller 

Point Guard/#1, in The Original Ball Side Corner

Small Forward/#3-Off Guard/#2, at The Original Ball Side Free Throw Line Extended

Power Forward/#4 - in The Original Weak Side Corner

3. Demand that their #2-3’s attack the Hedging Pick Defender, by going around him toward the Original Weak Side of the floor and, then, looking for one of the following options:

a. His own drive to the basket;

b. A lob pass to D-12, for a dunk opportunity;

c. A kickout pass to Rashard Lewis for an uncontested 3PT shot from the corner;

d. A throwback pass to Mickael Pietrus for an uncontested 3PT shot, as he re-locates to the Top Of The Key position [following Howard's roll to the basket];

e. A cross-court skip pass to Jameer Nelson for an uncontested 3PT shot, as he re-locates to the New Weak Side Free Throw Line Extended position.

If Orlando runs this simple set play … this exact way … it will generate, either:

I. Open shots galore for Rashard Lewis;

or,

II. A career night for one of Vincent Lamar Carter, or Mickael Pietrus, as their primary ball-handler.

———-

PS. Hopefully, Stan Van Gundy is paying close attention to what’s written here.

Orlando is now down 0-2, heading to Boston for Game 3.

Q1. How come?

Game 1, Box Score

Game 2, Box Score

A1. Similar to what happened during Boston’s series vs Cleveland …

Thus far, Doc Rivers is significantly out-coaching his counterpart, in terms of how he is using his personnel to best advantage.

The choice going forward for Stan Van Gundy is actually quite simple:

OPTION 1
Keep doing exactly what the Magic have done to this point … and get swept, by losing 4 straight “close” games to an equally strong and championship calibre opponent;

or,

OPTION 2
Stop giving extended playing time to inferior players like Matt Barnes [SF] and JJ Redick [OG], over someone like Mickael Pietrus [G-F] - who is a much btter all-around player - and stop completely sitting out players like Brandon Bass [PF] and Ryan Anderson [PF], in favour of using only Dwight Howard [C], Rashard Lewis [PF] and Marcin Gortat [C/PF] - in an exclusively ”3 Bigs” rotation - when Boston is going with a “4 Bigs” rotation, involving Garnett [PF], Perkins [C], Davis [PF] and Wallace [C] … and, in the process, turn “close-but-no-cigar” losses into out-right W’s.

This is what the “individual Match-ups” have looked like to this point:

If, however, SVG shifts to ”individual match-ups” which look like this, instead:

then, Orlando would still have a have a solid chance to win this series in 7 games.

The choice is up to Stan.

If you take a look at the way Doc Rivers and Stan Van Gundy chose to use their players in Game 1 of this series, it should be clear to see what Orlando needs to do this evening in order to head to Boston, for Game 3, tied 1-1:

BACK-UP GUARD
Although JJ Redick can do an adequate job, defensively, chasing Ray Allen around, using him for 19 minutes against a team like Boston - specifically, at the Off Guard position - significantly reduces Orlando’s overall effectiveness, when it comes to any “help & rotate”, “switch” or “rebounding” situation.

SMALL FORWARD
Matt Barnes, at the best of times, is ill-suited to match-up with an ultra-physical multi-dimensional player like Paul Pierce.

BIGS
Boston has decided to beat on - and beat up - Dwight Howard with a “4 Bigs” rotation of Kevin Garnett, Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Rasheed Wallace. As long as SVG elects to only use a 3-man rotation of D-12, Rashard Lewis and Marcin Gortat, Orlando is going to come out on the short end of positional match-up.

Instead of following this recipe for disaster in Game 2, what Orlando needs to do instead is:

BACK-UP GUARD
Match up Vince Carter vs Ray Allen, almost exclusively; and, then use, either, Jason Williams or JJ Redick vs Tony Allen, but NOT both of them.

SMALL FORWARD
Insert Mickael Pietrus [6-6, 215] into their starting line-up, beside Vince Carter; and, match him up, almost exclusive, with Pierce [6-7, 235].

BIGS
Use D-12 [vs Perkins or Wallace], Rashard Lewis [vs Garnett or Wallace], Marcin Gortat [vs Perkins] and, either, Brandon Bass [vs Davis] or Ryan Anderson [vs Wallace], in a “4 Bigs” rotation.

If SVG and Co. make these adjustments tonight, then, the Magic should be able to even their series with the Celtics … AND cover the number [i.e. -7/-105], in the process.

3 weeks ago …

You were told in this space that the proper way for the Los Angeles Lakers to solve their problems this season would be to use Kobe Bean Bryant in a specific role:

Solving the Lakers’ problems with the Spurs, Apr 6 2010

Last week …

You were told in this space that the outcome of a playoff series can sometimes be determined by the ability of a team to make the correct game-to-game … and, THEN, in-game … adjustments, based on what its opponent’s specific strengths and weaknesses are and the best possible use of its own personnel:

Making the correct game-to-game adjustments can be THE difference between Winning and Losing in the Playoffs, Apr 23 2010

So much of what can be found on-line today concerning supposedly sound “basketball analysis” is little more than gobbledygook put forth by statistical gurus without a proper understanding of, 

“How the NBA game actually works.”

===================================

Oklahoma City Thunder 87
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 111
Complete Series Info

===================================

The fact is …

1. Sample sizes are rendered virtually meaningless;

2. League-wide averages are rendered virtually meaningless; and,

3. Creating and minimizing individual mis-matches against the best teams in the league - and a particular opponent of high calibre - are absolutely crucial;

 … when it comes to determining accurately which teams, coaches and, therefore, players will advance in the playoffs, or not.

====================================

During the pre-season …

You were told in this space that the 2009-2010 NBA championship would, in all likelihood, be won by 1 of the following 5 teams:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando Magic
Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston Celtics [i.e. depending upon the recovery of Kevin Garnett from injury]

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Los Angeles Lakers
San Antonio Spurs

Nothing which has happened since that time has fundamentally changed that perception. 

Right now …

The 4 best teams in the Eastern Conference are the Cleveland Cavaliers [4-1], Orlando Magic [4-0], Boston Celtics [4-1] and Atlanta Hawks [2-2].

The 4 best teams in the Western Conference are the Los Angeles Lakers [3-2], San Antonio Spurs [3-2], Utah Jazz [3-1] and Phoenix Suns [3-2].

===================================

Barring any further major injuries …

This year’s NBA champions will, in all likelihood, be 1 of the following 3 teams:

Los Angeles Lakers, Phil Jackson [and Mitch Kupchak and Dr. Jerry Buss]
Orlando Magic, Stan Van Gundy [and Otis Smith and Richard DeVos]
San Antonio Spurs, Gregg Popovich [and RC Buford and Peter Holt]

… none of which happens to be the Cleveland Cavaliers with Mike Brown [and Danny Ferry and Daniel Gilbert].

Basketball is the ultimate TEAM Sport … with each player on the court having to be able to function adequately on Offense, on Defense, and in terms of Rebounding, in conjunction with the sound strategic and tactical decision-making skills of an elite level head coach, general manager and owner.

Those who think that basketball can be properly understood by examining the statistical norms, averages, outliers, etc., associated with representative “sample sizes”, “numerical formulas”, and all manner of “efficiency ratings,” are simply wasting their [and your] time.

Basketball is a game of:

I. Acumen;

and,

II. Inches;

… the most important of which are the “approximately 6″ located between the ears of a team’s owner, general manager, head coach and 8-9 regular rotation players.

Related:

Kobe Bryant, Closer to the ground

Every Move Must Have A Purpose

Although plenty of other NBA observers have expressed their concerns regarding the current performance of the Orlando Magic …

A Quantitative Look at the Orlando Magic’s Four All-Stars

Orlando Magic News for January 19th: Sobering Assessments of Orlando’s Season Abound at the Halfway Mark

much of what’s been said to-date misses the mark completely, when it comes to diagnosing accurately:

#1. What’s been going on with Orlando in the last month [or so]?

and,

#2. What specific remedies the Magic will need to implement, in order to make their problems disappear for the balance of this season? 

There are five simple [inter-related] player personnel moves which Stan Van Gundy needs to implement that will cure what is ailing the Orlando Magic at the moment:

1. Replace Jason Williams with Anthony Johnson as the exclusive primary Back-up Point Guard to Jameer Nelson.

2. Remove Matt Barnes from the regular rotation.