khandor’s sports blog

Although plenty of other NBA observers have expressed their concerns regarding the current performance of the Orlando Magic …

A Quantitative Look at the Orlando Magic’s Four All-Stars

Orlando Magic News for January 19th: Sobering Assessments of Orlando’s Season Abound at the Halfway Mark

much of what’s been said to-date misses the mark completely, when it comes to diagnosing accurately:

#1. What’s been going on with Orlando in the last month [or so]?

and,

#2. What specific remedies the Magic will need to implement, in order to make their problems disappear for the balance of this season? 

There are five simple [inter-related] player personnel moves which Stan Van Gundy needs to implement that will cure what is ailing the Orlando Magic at the moment:

1. Replace Jason Williams with Anthony Johnson as the exclusive primary Back-up Point Guard to Jameer Nelson.

2. Remove Matt Barnes from the regular rotation.

3. Shift Rashard Lewis into the Starting Small Forward position.

4. Shift Ryan Anderson into the Starting Power Forward position.

5. Use Brandon Bass in the Back-up Power Forward position.

What these five specific changes would do, in effect, is create a regular rotation which features the following Start Five:

Jameer Nelson, PG
Vince Carter, OG
Rashard Lewis, SF
Ryan Anderson, PF
Dwight Howard, C

in conjunction with the following set of Key Subs off the bench:

Anthony Johnson, PG
JJ Redick, OG
Mickael Pietrus, SF
Brandon Bass, PF 
Marcin Gortat, C

and the following list of Reserves/Extras/Outs:

Jason Williams, PG
Matt Barnes, SF
Adonal Foyle, C

Move #1
With a healthy Jameer Nelson [PG] in their everyday line-up, an erratic player like Jason Williams [PG] is not the right fit with their team, in a primary back-up role, in comparison with a more consistent player like Anthony Johnson [who is a much better defender and rebounder than J-Wil, at this stage of their respective careers].

Game Log for Anthony Johnson in Orlando’s Last 13 Games

Game Log for Anthony Johnson when playing +10:00

Move #2
Although Matt Barnes [6-7, 226] has proved to be an energetic player over the course of his NBA career, right now he is not a “good fit” with the Magic, given his specific skill-set [i.e. 3FG%=28.6; Ast:TO=1.0] and considering the other guards and forwards on their roster.

Move #3
Using a player like Rashard Lewis [6-10, 230] at the Starting SF position makes the Magic bigger at this spot … i.e. compared with Matt Barnes [6-7, 226] … while still retaining their collective ability to shoot the ball effectively from the perimeter [i.e. 3FG%=39.5] and make good decisions [i.e. Ast:TO=1.0] around a center-piece like Dwight Howard.

This move would then allow Mickael Pietrus to flourish, by providing Orlando with a much better scorer and defender coming off the bench, at this key swing position, instead of Matt Barnes.

Move #4
Ryan Anderson is a solid low-maintenance perimeter shooting Big Man who can stretch defense around D-12 and defend adequately: [i] on the perimeter against smaller players, and [ii] in the post against non-behemoth Power Forwards and Centers.

Move #5
Brandon Bass is an under-sized Power Forward who, on offense, works well in the mid-range area [i.e. FG%=53.1] and is able to hold his ground, defensively, and in terms of rebounding, against any Back-up PF. Unfortunately, to this point in the season, he is being wasted on the Magic’s bench with a series of DNPs.

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Magic Remedy, Part 1

If Stan Van Gundy makes these specific personnel adjustments Orlando will finish in 1 of the top 4 positions in the Eastern Conference, once again, and advance to the East Finals, against Boston or Cleveland or Atlanta or Miami, with a solid shot at returning to the NBA Finals this season. 

Magic Remedy, Part II

What Stan Van Gundy also needs to do, however, is return to being the curmudgeon he has always been, not the giant “teddy bear” he has morphed into recently, in the aftermath of Dwight Howard’s request to “lighten up” on his routinely harsh criticism of his own team/players.

If Stan chooses to continue on his current path, then, Orlando will have very little chance of besting Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta or Miami in the playoffs this season.

This is not the sort of team that Stan Van Gundy can afford to “go soft on”.

Which team[s] made out the best from the 4-team trade … between Toronto, Dallas, Memphis and Orlando … this past summer?

Rick Kamla gets it right.

A dried up little pond?

Oh, my.

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The Cavs are Magic’s biggest rival because of aura and arrogance of Shaq
It’s about Shaq, stupid.

He’s the biggest reason the Cavs are the team Orlando most wants to beat.

He’s the guy who wrecked this franchise all those years ago. He’s the guy who called Orlando “a dried-up little pond.” He’s the guy who called Magic coach Stan Van Gundy a “nobody,” a ”bum” and a “master of panic.” He’s the guy who called Magic superstar Dwight Howard “an impostor.”

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If there’s any doubt what the biggest game is tonight, in the NBA, that quote from Shaq-daddy should, rightly, have just put an end to the debate.

The current wagering line for this match-up is:

Cleveland -1/-101

with Orlando in the 2nd half of a back-2-back, coming off last night’s victory at Charlotte.

Games like this one are frequently exceptional money-making opportunities, i.e. Khandor’s Sports Service, Games Of The Day.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 14 – vs Orlando [Sun Nov 22]

The Magic’s 2nd trip to the ACC this season should prove to be more enjoyable for the visitors. Knowing full well what it feels like to play and lose a 1:00 PM game on Sunday afternoon, after spending the previous night in Toronto, should produce a much more determined effort from Orlando this time around … especially, with Rashard Lewis back in the line-up [i.e. following his league-imposed early season suspension]. 

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 5-9

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PS. During the 2006-2007 season Orlando [40-42/.488; 3rd Southeast] and Toronto [47-35/.573; 1st Atlantic] finished as the 8th and 3rd seeded teams in the EC playoffs, respectively. Since then, however, the fortunes of their franchises have gone in completely opposite directions. 

2007-2008, Orlando [1st Southwest; Lost 2nd Rd of Playoffs to Detroit]; Toronto [2nd Atlantic; Lost 1st Rd of playoffs to Orlando]

2008-2009, Orlando [Southwest, 1st; NBA Finalist]; Toronto [Atlantic 4th; missed playoffs]

2009-2010, Orlando [plus .500?]; Toronto [minus .500?]

With:

1. Vince Carter [G-F] now in Orlando and Hedo Turkoglu [SF] now in Toronto;

2. Dwight Howard [C] in Orlando and Andrea Bargnani [C] in Toronto;

3. Rashard Lewis [PF] in Orlando and Chris Bosh [PF] in Toronto;

4. Jameer Nelson [PG] in Orlando and Jose Calderon [PG] in Toronto;

5. JJ Redick [OG] in Orlando and DeMar DeRozan [OG] in Toronto;

6. Stan Van Gundy [head coach] in Orlando and Jay Triano [head coach] in Toronto;

7. Otis Smith/Dave Twardzik [as the management team] in Orlando and Bryan Colangelo/Maurizio Gherardini in Toronto [as the management team]; and,

8. Rich DeVos [as the owner] in Orlando and MLSE [as the owners] in Toronto;

it is going to be very interesting to see how these two franchises compare over the next few seasons. 

Continuing the series which was started here on Monday … 

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 3 – vs Orlando [Sun Nov 01]

Coming off an 0-2 start to the new season, this is a 2nd key early game for the Raptors. If Toronto is actually going to re-assert itself this season, as a legit team in the EC playoff race, the Dinos will need to win this Sunday afternoon tilt against a Magic squad that will be without the services of Rashard Lewis [i.e. absent due to league-imposed suspension]. With the support of a typically raucous home crowd, the off day in-between road games for Orlando [whose players will be spending Saturday evening experiencing the nightlife in T.O.], and this being Hedo Turkoglu’s first home game in his new digs vs the squad that declined the opportunity to pay him the $$$ he felt he deserved this summer, as an important UFA for a team that advanced to the NBA Finals last season … the Raptors should be able to win this match-up. If not … it might be a really long year ahead for the Dinos.  

[PLEASE NOTE: Should the Magic start their season 2-0 before arriving in Toronto, and Vince Carter decides that he is really going to "bring it" vs his old team, and a defender like Turk ... who cannot check him 1-on-1 if his life depended on it ... and the ridiculous chorus of revengeful boos that repeatedly rain down upon him at the Air Canada Centre ... then it should come as no surprise, whatsoever, if the Magic can actually pull this one out of the fire, at the last second, on a terrific set play drawn up by SVG. As such, this could be a real hum-dinger ... and a critical swing game for the Raptors!]

Raptors expected W-L Record: W, 1-2

When you follow a distinctive career path that looks like this one:

Jason Williams: “I love to pass. Dwight Howard loves to score.”
“I don’t really pay attention to what you guys write in the papers, what people really think. You guys are going to write what you want and people are going to say what they want. I just want to go out and have fun and if throwing behind the back passes is what it takes to win that’s what I’m going to do it takes a regular bounce pass that’s what I’ll do too. I’m all about winning, now.”

Williams was asked if he’s matured.

“I wouldn’t say matured because I’m still a kid at heart,” Williams said. “I still do stupid things sometimes. When I’m out on the court I’m not worried about what people are thinking about my maturity  level. I just want to win And as long as my teammates and coach knows that that’s all that matters.”

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98-99 Rick Adelman, Geoff Petrie
99-00 Rick Adelman, Geoff Petrie
00-01 Rick Adelman, Geof Petrie
01-02 Sidney Lowe, Billy Knight
02-03 Sidney Lowe/Hubie Brown, Jerry West
03-04 Hubie Brown, Jerry West
04-05 Hubie Brown/Lionel Hollins/Mike Fratello, Jerry West
05-06 Stan Van Gundy/Pat Riley
06-07 Pat Riley
07-08 Pat Riley
08-09 Mike Dunleavy, Jr.
09-10 Stan Van Gundy, Otis Smith/Dave Twardzik

… eventually it just might truly become, “About getting the W.”

Courtesy of TrueHoop …

Stan Van Gundy, two feet on the ground: “I was at the Division III level and I got out coached a lot of times. I was at the Division II level and I got out coached a lot of times, and there’s some coaches at some of those schools right now who have got it in the back of their minds and looking at me and saying, ‘You’ve got to be kidding me.’ There was a guy, I don’t know if he’s there anymore, in fact I know he’s not, but there was a guy at Bridgeport, Connecticut, Bruce Webster, he beat me nine out of ten times when I was at Lowell. You’ve got to be good in this business but you’ve also got to get a lot of breaks. If you don’t realize that, if you really think you’re sitting here because of your genius or anything, I don’t know, maybe your background is different, but I got my butt kicked a lot at every level, including this one, so I sort of know where I stand in this profession.”

Just one more reason yours truly has such a high level of R.E.S.P.E.C.T. for Stan [and his brother, Jeff ... aka, The Undertaker ... aka, My Morose But Brilliant Illegitimate Half-brother].

Bill & Cindy did a great job raising their two sons.

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Related:

From the archives: The Van Gundys love this game

Alex Trebek: Stan, where to next?

Stan Van Gundy: Thanks, I’ll take, ‘Great Last Second Plays, Courtney Lee’ … for the Win.

Alex Trebek: [The Answer] So Close … but, Oh, So Far.

Stan Van Gundy: [The Question] What’s an open lay-up that might NEVER come again?

Alex Trebek: I’m afraid that’s not THE exact question we’re looking for. The correct question is, “What’s the Difference Between Winning & Losing Game Two?”

Let’s see how much you wagered.

Stan Van Gundy: The whole shh-bang, Alex. Everything I have!

Alex Tribek: Oh, Stan, I’m awfully sorry; but, hopefully, the parting gifts will bring you some consolation.

Stan Van Gundy: Thanks, but no thanks, Alex. When you think like we do. My brother, Jeff, and me. The ONLY thing that counts … at this level of competition … is actually WINNING!

Can we possibly make ‘Best 4-out-of-7?

Alex Trebek: Sorry, Stan. That’s not how it works around here.

Stan Van Gundy: Thanks, Alex. YOU CAN’T BLAME a guy for TRYING [his very best]. Sometimes, things just don’t work out the you’ve planned.

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Related: A Career-Defining Moment, Missed

Current Odds To Win This Series
Orlando +245
LOS ANGELES -265

The first question which needs to be asked and then answered regarding this series is:

Q1. What 5-Man Unit will the Lakers use to begin Game One?

A1. Either, Option I, Option II or Option III [see below]:

Q2. Which Option actually presents the better set of individual match-ups for each team?

A2. That’s the $64,000 Question for this series.

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Orlando’s Perspective

Option I
Gives the Magic their best opportunity to succeed, emphasizing Turkoglu’s Size & Skill Advantage vs Ariza, plus Lewis’ Quickness Advantage vs Gasol.

Option II
Limits the Magic to Turkoglu’s Size & Skill Advantage vs Ariza.  

Option III
Chokes Off the Magic’s Offense, eliminating their Individual Advantages. 

Los Angeles’ perspective

Option I
Gives the Lakers a chance to attack Lewis in the Pinch-Post position vs Gasol; but, exposes Gasol on the perimeter vs Lewis’ superior quickness.

Option II
Allows Bynum to work vs the Magic’s back-ups; but, exposes Gasol to be attacked by Howard in Low Block Post-ups.

Option III
Exposes Gasol to attacks by Howard; BUT, also ensures that Kobe can GO TO WORK vs Lee, unfettered, while, Bynum gets to work vs the Magic’s back-ups.

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Despite the Lakers now being a prohibitive favourite to win this series, there is still some legitimate “value” to be had with a play on the Magic, at +245 … if Los Angeles decides to go at Orlando with its customary M.O. [Option I].

That said, however, there is nothing about this series which SPELLS the word U-P-S-E-T, given the Individual Match-ups listed above.

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Related:

Charley Rosen’s 2009 NBA Finals Preview

Q1. Can the Cavaliers rebound from a 1-2 game deficit to win the EC Finals vs the Magic?

A1. Yes, they can.

Q2. Can the Nuggets claw their way back from a similar deficit to vanquish the Lakers in the WC Finals?

A2. Yes, they can.

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Both teams are capable of orchestrating a comeback to reach the Finals this season, based on the prodigious talents of players like Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony & Chauncey Billups.

However … that specific scenario is now quite unlikely to happen.

How come?

From top to bottom, and when healthy …

The two best teams in the NBA today are the Orlando Magic and the Los Angeles Lakers, and each one is simply too good to be overcome by their respective opponents in their conference finals series, both of which are missing key elements when it comes to actually winning the championship.

What The Cavaliers Are Still Missing

* Their best 5-Man Unit has yet to play any significant time together during their series vs Orlando, i.e. PG/Gibson, OG/Pavlovic, SF/James, PF/Varejao & C/Ilgauskas

* Mike Brown needs to develop a better feel for the game, and increased dexterity, as a Head Coach

* A 2nd Marquee Player at the Guard and/or Forward position with good size

What The Nuggets Are Still Missing

* A team playing a thuggish brand of basketball will not win the NBA Championship … because the rules of the game, rightfully, will not allow it

* More poise under pressure from players not named Chauncey Billups

* At least one more year’s worth of experience which goes beyond the 1st Round of the Playoffs

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Looking back on the 2008-2009 regular season schedule:

December 20, 2008, Lakers at Magic, 103-106
January 16, 2009, Lakers vs Magic, 103-109

it’s most likely that this year’s NBA Finals series will have the makings of an all-time classic … even though the current MVP may well have been eliminated from the competition, by that point.

———-

On May 19, 2009 the wagering odds to win the 2008-2009 NBA Title were as follows:

Los Angeles Lakers
Yes/+220
No/-250 

Orlando Magic
Yes/+1800
No/-2300

both of which are looking like very solid propositions with each passing day.

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Throughout their rosters, both teams have What it takes to win the NBA Championship this season:

Orlando Magic [59-23]
PDR - 4
PAR - 6
RDR - 9
QR -19
QIR - 5
Rafer Alston, Anthony Johnson, Courtney Lee, Tyronn Lue, JJ Redick, Mickael Pietrus, Hedo Turkoglu, Rashard Lewis, Tony Battie, Adonal Foyle, Dwight Howard, Marcin Gortat & Stan Van Gundy

Los Angeles Lakers [65-17]
PDR - 2
PAR - 14
RDR - 5
QR - 21
QIR - 6
Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Kobe Bryant, Sasha Vujacic, Trevor Ariza, Luke Walton, Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Josh Powell, DJ Mbenga & Phil Jackson

Legend:
PDR - Points Differential Ranking; PAR - Points Allowed Ranking; RDR - Rebound Differential Ranking; QR - Qaulity Rating; QIR - Quality Index Ranking

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Related:

When Orlando has it going