khandor’s sports blog

Prior to January 30, 2011 the Pacers’ W-L Record was 17-27/.386.

After firing Jim O’Brien, however, the Pacers immediately began to play much better basketball.

Conventional wisdom says that this immediate uptick in performance was simply a temporary upsurge which typically occurs for a relatively short time-period, before regressing to the mean, based on the over-riding abilities of the players on their roster, rather than the abilities of their newly appointed head coach [i.e. Frank Vogel].

Then, when the NBA Trade Deadline came and went …

“Indiana Was Not Able to Get It All Together,” Says Grizzlies Owner About Failed OJ Mayo Trade

UPDATE: Larry Bird on Failed Trade: Deal Pulled Off the Table with Two Minutes to Go

with a failed effort to complete a three-team trade with the Memphis Grizzlies and the New Orleans Hornets which reportedly would have:

Cost Them

- Josh McRoberts/PF [starter]
- Brandon Rush/OG [back-up]
- Solomon Jones/PF-C [back-up]

while,

Netting Them

- OJ Mayo/PG-OG ['quasi' starter]

the Pacers subsequently crashed down to earth in their last 8 games:

and are now, supposedly, experiencing a variety of internal problems:

Larry Bird Criticizes His Players: “We’re Just Not Getting the Effort”

that have caused their team to fail to compete on a game-to-game basis.

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Looking closely at what has happened with the Pacers this season, and especially since the events of February 24, 2011 …

Is a simple case of regression to the mean really what has caused this team to lose 7 of their last 8 games?

Mike Dunleavy’s Game Log for the 2010-2011 Season

PART I, Games played from October 27, 2010 to January 30, 2011 => 17-27
PART II, Games played from January 31 to February 23, 2011 => 9-3
PART III, Games played since February 24, 2011 => 1-7

Or, is there another equally simple but, possibly, even MORE plausibe explanation for this?

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When an otherwise solid NBA team – i.e. based on the relative quality of its player personnel - experiences a sudden and major decline in performance, it is frequently attributable to the absence of one [or more] key player[s] from their line-up, who is [are] primarily responsible for creating and minimizing a slew of individual mis-match advantages for their team when playing against average-to-above-average-to-very-good opponents.

As far as the Pacers are concerned, Mike Dunleavy is, in fact, this type of player and this corner would simply suggest that:

#1. Indiana has a much improved chance to play the type of game it wants to play under the direction of Frank Vogel … and win! … when it has a 6-9, 230 lb, relatively agile, multi-dimensional OG, like Mike Dunleavy, in its starting line-up, beside:

PG, Darren Collison [6-0, 160]
OG,
SF, Danny Granger [6-9, 228]
PF, Josh McRoberts [6-10, 240]
C, Roy Hibbert [7-2, 278]

[with a supporting cast of AJ Price, TJ Ford, Lance Stephenson, Brandon Rush, Dahntay Jones, Paul George, James Posey, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster and Solomon Jones] 

than it does when forced to play without him against the likes of Utah, Phoenix, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Houston and Philadelphia;

and,

#2. When Indiana tips-off against the Raptors later-on this evening, it should come as no surprise at all to see the Pacers get back in the W column, since some combination of Brandon Rush [6-6, 210], Dahntay Jones [6-6, 210], Lance Stephenson [6-5, 210] and Paul George [ 6-8, 210] should be more than capable of competing effectively, at the OG position, against Toronto’s troika of DeMar DeRozan [6-7, 220], Sonny Weems [6-6, 203] and Leandro Barbosa [6-3, 202].

Although the Indiana Pacers [10-10/.500] are one of the most improved teams in the NBA, so far, this season – i.e. last year, at the 20 game mark, the Pacers’ W-L record was 7-13/.400 – in reality, they should be even better than their record to-date indicates.

Q1. How come, you ask?

A1. Primarily … because, as an in-game tactician, their head coach [i.e. Jim O'Brien] – all too often - leaves a great deal to be desired.

Exhibit A

If you look at this specific video clip of highlights, from last night’s at-the-buzzer loss to the Bucks, in Milwaukee, you should be able to see exactly which set of 5 players each team had on the floor during the final possession of the game.

For Milwaukee:

Jennings/PG, Salmons/OG, Mbah A Moute/SF, Ilyasova/PF, and Bogut/C

For Indiana:

Collison/PG, Rush/OG, Granger/SF, Foster/PF, and C/Hibbert

precipitating the following Individual Match-ups:

Collison/PG vs Jennings/PG
Rush/OG vs Salmons/OG
Hibbert/C vs Mbah A Moute/SF [inbound passer]
Granger/PF vs Ilyasova/PF
Foster/PF vs Bogut/C

as the Bucks ran their set play – i.e. a simple cross screen then back screen action involving Jennings [screener], Salmons [screen user-1] and Bogut [screen user-2] – from the left sideline in their front-court.

While it makes a great deal of “basketball sense” for the Pacers to use Roy Hibbert [7-2] as the inbounds defender [i.e. taking advantage of his "height" and "reach" vs Mbah A Moute], in this situation, it makes very little sense to have Jeff Foster [6-11 and "savvy", but with a limited "reach" and overall "athleticism"] matched-up vs Andrew Bogut [7-0], especially, when:

i. The Bucks’ center is initially positioned at the Top Of The Key [i.e. where he is poised to set a stationary screen for Ilyasova and, then, use a back screen from Jennings, in order to get to the basket himself];

and,

ii. Your team has superior defensive players on the bench – e.g. Solomon Jones/C [significantly more athletic], or James Posey/SF [also highly experienced] – who are better suited to check Mr. Bogut, in this specific situation, given the time & score.

Although Jeff Foster is a solid, veteran Big Man, who has seen every defensive situation imaginable, over the course of his 12 seasons in the NBA … given his limited use this season, and the fact that he was not used in this game between the 42.0 second mark of the 3rd quarter [Ind 79, Mil 78] and the 0.5 second mark of the 4th quarter [Ind 95, Mil 95] … he was NOT the correct defensive match-up for the Pacers to use on the final possession of the 4th quarter.

i.e. Scenario 1 – If O’Brien wanted to go with a veteran player vs Bogut, then, he should have used James Posey – i.e who was last “subbed into” the game at the 2:33 mark of the 4th quarter and was the player ”subbed out” in favour of Jeff Foster - even though he is under-sized vs Bogut, since there was no time available for a post-up situation. Scenario 2 – If O’Brien wanted to go with the best physical match-up vs Bogut, then, he should have used Solomon Jones – i.e. who did not play in this game after the 2:13 mark of the 2nd quarter, in spite of having an individual ”stat line” which read as follows: FGM-FGA/2-3, Pts/4, Rebs/2, Diff/-3, and MP/6.

Despite the fact that certain ”stats gurus” might like to suggest that the “real effects” of a particular head coach’s work, in the NBA, are highly over-rated … or that certain coaches are actually “worth” a specific number of wins per season, based on a statitistical measure which tracks individual player performance, related to that team’s overall number of wins … the simple fact of the matter is that … this is not the case at all, when you examine closely just how many individual games are lost, within a given season, by the one person who is actually responsible for deciding which set of 5 players are on the court together for their team at any specific point in time – relative to his counterpart for the opposition – and the very “real effects” the outcomes of these games have on their team’s place in the final standings. 

In this regard, Jim O’Brien is now 0-1, this season, according to yours truly.

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Related:

Buzzer beater breakdown

Indiana doesn’t protect the rim, gives up the game winner with 0.5 left

Toronto Raptors 101
INDIANA PACERS 105
Complete Game Info – Mon Jan 11 2010

When you take a closer look at the way this specific game was played by these two teams, in terms of their respective rotations:

A.i. LINE-UPS
Raptors and Pacers each use a conventional 5-man unit.
Raptors use Hedo Turkoglu at SF.

A.ii. LINE-UPS
Raptors and Pacers each use a conventional 5-man unit.
Raptors use Sonny Weems at SF.

B. LINE-UPS
Pacers use an unconventional/”small” 5-man unit with Danny Granger at PF.
Raptors use a conventional 5-man unit with Hedo Turkoglu and then Antoine Wright at SF.

C. LINE-UPS
Pacers use an unconventional/”small” 5-man unit with Danny Granger at PF.
Raptors use an unconventional 5-man unit with Hedo Turkoglu at PF and Sonny Weems at SF.

what you should be able to see is that each squad had considerable success with specific types of 5-man units and struggled mightily with others.  

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

#1. When the Pacers first went “small”, at the 08:09 mark of the 2nd quarter, down by 22 points, what the Raptors needed to do in response was:

- Keep Amir Johnson/PF in the game, matched-up vs Danny Granger

- Replace Marco Belinelli/OG with Hedo Turkoglu/SF; shift Sonny Weems to the OG position; and, replace Rasho Nesterovic/C with Chris Bosh

If Toronto would have made these specific moves it would have created the following individual match-ups:

Pos, Raptor [Off|Def|Reb] vs Opp

PG, Calderon [+|-|0] vs Price
OG, Weems [0|+|+] vs Rush
SF, Turkoglu [0|-|0] vs Dunleavy
PF, Johnson [-|+|0] vs Granger
C, Bosh [0|+|0] vs Murphy

and put the Raptors in a good position to maintain their 20+ point lead heading toward half-time.

#2. When the Pacers went “small” to begin the 4th quarter, what the Raptors needed to do was:

- Replace Marco Belinelli/OG with Sonny Weems, at the 11:22 mark

- Keep Amir Johnson/PF on the floor, matched-up vs Danny Granger

If Toronto would have made these specific moves it would have created the following individual match-ups:

PG, Calderon [+|-|0] vs Price
OG, Weems [-|+|+] vs Rush
SF, Turkoglu [0|-|0] vs Dunleavy
PF, Johnson [-|+|0] vs Granger
C, Bargnani [0|0|-] vs Murphy

and put the Raptors in a good position to maintain their 8 point lead heading toward crunch time … i.e. the final 10 minutes … in the 4th quarter.

#3. According to the 5-man unit stats at 82games.com, the Raptors have yet to try the combination of:

Calderon/PG + Weems/OG + Turkolgu/SF + Bosh/PF + Bargnani/C

this season for any significant stretch of playing time.  

Although Sonny Weems has yet to convert a 3PT-shot in his NBA career, at 6-6, 203 he is an athletic defender/rebounder, at the OG position, who:

i. Shoots 45% on his 2FGAs
ii. Slashes well to the basket, in both half and full court situations
iii. Has the ability to draw fouls, and
iv. Plays with a high degree of energy. 

An effective compliment to the specific skill-sets of Jose Calderon [i.e. a good ball-handler and perimeter shooter], Hedo Turkoglu [i.e. a solid ball-handler and perimeter shooter], Andrea Bargnani [i.e. a good perimeter shooter] and Chris Bosh [i.e. a good mid-range/low-post scorer] … Sonny Weems is the player who the Raptors need to play at the OG position when the opposition elects to go “small” vs Toronto, like the Pacers did, during key stretches of Monday’s game.

What you see below are two video clips which The Arsenalist has done a good job parsing out from last night’s Raptors’ W vs the Pacers, while asking for “the answer” to 2 specific questions, based on this footage:

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Q1. Why did Belinelli leave Rush open?

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Q2. Why did Bargnani feel the need to help [leaving Granger open]?

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These are perfectly good “technical” questions which deserve to be answered properly [and thoroughly] by an actual basketball expert.

ANSWER 1

In this sequence:

Jarrett Jack is X1, checking Earl Watson/PG [i.e. O1].
Marco Belinelli is X2, checking Brandon Rush/OG [i.e. O2].
Hedo Turkoglu is X3, checking Danny Granger/SF [i.e. O3].
Andrea Bargnani is X4, checking Tyler Hansbrough/PF [i.e. O4].
Amir Johnson is X5, checking Jeff Foster/C [i.e. O5]. 

When O1 is passed the ball in the Right Wing position, X2 is the defender with the responsibility of checking the opposition player who is now occupying the “lowest” spot [i.e. closest to the baseline] on the weak side of the floor [i.e. O2].

X2′s responsibility is to be in a Help position vs any baseline drive by O1.

X3′s responsibility is to be in a Help-the-helper position vs any baseline drive by O1.

When O1 drives by X1, toward the Right Baseline, X2 must provide Help. It is then X3′s responsiblity to Drop/Sink Down toward the Left Baseline, in order to provide Help for the Helper [i.e. X2].

When O1 then makes a pass to O2, in the Left Corner, it is X3′s responsibility to, either:

A. Intercept/deflect this pass; or, B. Close-out vs O2.

In this instance, however … Hedo Turkoglu provides NEITHER of these two required responses.

This was a defensive miscue by X3, Hedo Turkoglu.

* The ONLY exception would be, if the Raptors’ actual game-plan called for whichever defender was assigned to Granger to NOT rotate off of him in all dribble penetration scenarios.

Instead of X3 [i.e Turkoglu] initiating a Secondary Rotation vs O2 [i.e. Rush], X5, Amir Johnson [who was checking an offensive player located above the FT Line, i.e. Jeff Foster], was forced to make a late attempt at a close-out vs X3′s assigned check, in a fruitless attempt to stop this wide open Corner 3-PT shot.

ANSWER 2 

In this sequence:

Jarrett Jack is X1, checking T.J. Ford/PG [i.e. O1].
Marco Belinelli is X3, checking Danny Granger/SF [i.e. O3].
Hedo Turkoglu is X2, checking Brandon Rush/OG [i.e. O2].
Andrea Bargnani is X4, checking Troy Murphy/PF [i.e. O4].
Amir Johnson is X5, checking Solomon Jones/C [i.e. O5]. 

When O3 [i.e. the Dribbler] and O4 [i.e. the Picker] executed a High Left Wing Pick, X4 and X3 had the responsibility of Switching … which they did effectively.

X1′s responsibility was to then be in position to provide [weak side] Help on any Middle Drive by O3.

X5′s responsibility was to defend 1-on-1 vs O5′s cut to the weak side Low-post position.

X2′s responsibility was to Sink to the Middle, coming off of O2 slightly, in order to deter/contest/defend against an interior pass to O4 [i.e. if he rolled to the basket].

X3′s responsibility was to engage O4 and neutralize his attempt to get open following the Pick Action [i.e. either rolling to the basket or popping out to the perimeter].

X4′s responsibility was to defend against O3 [i.e. the Dribbler].

When O3 then Drove Middle, into the lane, it was due to the “poor lateral defensive footwork” of X4 [i.e. Bargnani].

What X4 did effectively, however, was position himself in a way to be able to contest a running jump-shot from O3, if this player would have attempted to execute this specific type of low percentage shot on his drive into the lane.

Instead of doing this, though, O3 … when confronted with the weak side Help from X1 … made a Kick-out Pass to O1. 

At this point, two Defensive Rotation Options were in play:

A. X5 needed to Rotate Out to defend against O1 [i.e. with X4, either: i. rotating directly to defend vs O5; or, ii. rotating to O2, if X2 had been able to rotate to defend against O5]; or,

B. X1 needed to Recover [quickly] AND Close-out against O1, with X4 maintaining/re-establishing his defensive position relative to O3.  

OPTION B is what actually happened.

To this point, the Raptors were able to cover-up for Bargnani’s initial miscue.

When O1 then Drove Middle, getting into the lane, X1 did a poor job keeping the ball on the perimeter of the defense BUT a good job of at least maintaining his defensive position between the ball-handler and the basket, which enabled X3, X2 and X5 to all Stay Home on their individual check … although X5 did provide some Secondary Basket Protection by Stepping Up towards the front rim in support of X1.

The defensive miscue which occured next … i.e. X4′s decision to release his individual check to “Trap In/Out” vs O1 … was due to a lack of discipline/concentration by Bargnani.

Considering that Turkoglu first refused to LEAVE Granger … for whatever reason … in the 1st clip, and then Bargnani refused to STAY WITH Granger … for whatever reason … in the 2nd clip, it’s a sound observation to assert that at least one of these two players failed to do his assigned job properly, in these specific sequences, and that perhaps BOTH of them DO NOT have the discipline/concentration required to be a consistent defensive player for the Raptors, at this point.

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Anyone else who would like to have “an answer” provided to a technical basketball-related question, please feel free to create a youtube video clip, in some format, and forward it to this blog.

What you will get back, in return, is an accurate reply.

Cheers

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 15 – vs Indiana [Tue Nov 24]

Even though the Raptors do not have an individual match-up advantage versus the Pacers in this specific game, they should still be able to get the W. Given the uncertain status of Mike Dunleavy [i.e. still recovering from knee surgery], it’s prudent to take a “wait-and-see approach” to Indiana this season. Jim O’Brien is a much more experienced coach than Jay Triano … but, he is not beyond making specific moves in a particular game which are somewhat-to-highly questionable that can jeopardize his own troops chances of winning. Facing the possibility of falling to 5-10 on the season, with a home-court loss to a middle-of-the-pack team in the EC, the Raptors should be highly energized for this game.

Raptors expected W-L Record: W, 6-9

Dunleavy in Pacers’ opener? Maybe
… Mike Dunleavy might be back sooner than expected, his coach said today.

“Our medical people are very pleased with his progression,” Pacers head coach Jim O’Brien said. “I’ve changed my view point to a pessimistic one from a standpoint of him being ready in the middle of the season to one that I’m hoping he’ll be ready to go for game one.”

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If Indiana was to actualy have a 100% healthy Mike Dunleavy, Jr. back in it’s rotation from the start of the 2009-2010 regular season schedule … in addition to a 100% healthy Danny Granger … then, yours truly would definitely consider the Pacers as yet one more Tier 2A team in the belly of an ever-strengthening Eastern Conference.

Finally having rid themselves of the debilitating Jamaal Tinsley [PG] situation, while adding [i] a low-cost veteran PG [low cost free agent], [ii] a hard-nosed defensive-minded, rebounding, non-shooting role player on the Wing [low cost free agent], [iii] a high motor, physical front-court player [Mid 1st Round Draft Pick], and [iv] an under-rated shot-blocking, non-scoring role playing back-up Center [low cost free agent]:

STARTERS
1 TJ Ford [PG]
2 Dahntay Jones [OG]
3 SF/Danny Granger [SF]
4 Troy Murphy [PF]
5 Roy Hibbert [C]

KEY SUBS
6 Watson [PG]
7 Brandon Rush [OG/SF]
8 Mike Dunleavy, Jr. [OG/SF]
9 Tyler Hansbrough [PF]
10 Solomon Jones [C]

RESERVES
11 Travis Diener [PG]
12 Jeff Foster [PF/C]

EXTRAS
13 AJ Price [PG]
14 ?
15 ?

this would be the type of diversified line-up necessary to compete for a #6-8 playoff spot in the EC from beginning to end.

When Raptors fans look at the way their team is perfoming during the final 20 games of their disappointing season …

———-

* – >.500 Team

winning only 7 of the 15 games [.467] they’ve played thus far.

———-

they need to make an accurate appraisal of the players who will form the nucleus of this team going forward from here:

Unlike many others in Raptorville, this corner does not believe that the main problems this team has experienced this season have been rooted in the assortment of injuries they’ve sustained and/or the overall poor performances of Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon, who are their best players by a wide margin.

Until Bryan Colangelo significantly upgrades the players who are currently slotted into the #3-15 spots on the Raptors’ roster:

i.e. Shawn Marion/#3, Andrea Bargnani/#4, Anthony Parker/#5, Joey Graham/#6, Kris Humphries/#7, Jason Kapono/#8, Roko Ukic/#9, Pops Mensah-Bonsu/#10, Quincy Douby/#11, Jake Voskuhl/#12, Patrick O’Brant/#13 and Nathan Jawai/#14

there is little chance this team will make serious headway in the Eastern Conference next season. 

Using the 4th place Atlanta Hawks, as one comparative example:

1. While Chris Bosh [C] can hold his own against other up-and-coming young players like Al Horford [C] or Josh Smith [PF], Andrea Bargnani [C] cannot; and, is simply out-classed by either of these two players.

2. While Jose Calderon [PG] can hold his own against a solid veteran like Mike Bibby [PG], Shawn Marion [SF] cannot stay with a multi-dimensional, dynamic Wing player like Joe Johnson [SF/OG/PG].

3. While Joey Graham has made a significant jump this season … i.e. from a seldom-used after-thought to a serviceable Wing player … he is simply not as good as Maurice Evans [OG/SF], nor as consistent.

4. While Jason Kapono is one of the best stand-still “catch & shoot” artists in the NBA, he is simply not as versatile a Back-up Guard/Forward as a Flip Murray, who can capably fill in for the Hawks, as an under-sized OG and an emergency PG.

5. While Kris Humphries is a solid Back-up Big Man, he is simply not as good as Zaza Pachulia.

6. While Roko Ukic has the make-up of a solid Point Guard, in the NBA, he is not a superior player to Acie Law, at this position.

7. While Pops Mensah-Bonsu certainly brings some badly needed energy and NBA athleticism to the Raptors, he is simply not in the same class of serviceable Back-up Big Man as a versatile player like Solomon Jones [who was a DNP in last night's game but can capably fill-in for the Hawks at both C and PF].

Most of which was on full display in last night’s game.

FINAL SCORE: RAPTORS 110, Hawks 118
Complete Game Info

Hawks Re-Sign Josh Smith!

As it stands right now, this Atlanta Hawks team …

2008-2009 Roster
PLAYER POS HT WT
Bibby, Mike G 6-1 190
Claxton, Speedy G 6-1 170
Evans, Maurice G-F 6-5 220
Horford, Al C-F 6-10 245
Johnson, Joe G 6-7 235
Jones, Solomon F 6-10
Law, Acie G 6-3 195
Morris, Randolph C 6-11 259
Pachulia, Zaza C 6-11
Richardson, Jeremy (FA) G-F 6-7 195
Smith, Josh (FA) F 6-9 235
Stoudamire, Salim (FA) G 6-1 175
West, Mario West (FA) G 6-5 210
Williams, Marvin F 6-9 230

with the solid acquisitions they’ve made this off-season … AND without over-paying for a mediocre NBA player like Josh Childress … is SOOOOO MUCH BETTER THAN 2007-2008, it’s no comparison.

While some might not LIKE Rick Sund (new GM), the solid job he’s done, thus far, is a MATTER OF FACT.

If the Hawks can stay healthy this season … they will be a legitimate Playoff Contender for a second consecutive year, in a much improved the Eastern Conference.