khandor’s sports blog

Last season the Raptors finished 4th in the Atlantic Division and 13th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 33-49/402].

Offensively, they scored 99.0 Points Per Game [16th in the NBA].
Defensively, they allowed 101.9 Points Per Game [20th in the NBA].
In terms of Points Scored Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -2.9 [23rd in the NBA].  
In terms of Rebounding Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -1.5 [22nd in the NBA].

Thus far, this season, Toronto is:

* 2nd in the Atlantic Division and 10th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 7-11/.389];

* 4th in Points Scored Per Game [104.9]

* 29th in Points Allowed Per Game [109.4]

* 23rd in Points Scored Differential Per Game [-4.4]

* 20th in Rebounding Differential Per Game [-0.4] 

How much is the roster really improved for the 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors, compared with the 2008-2009 version?

The main problem the Raptors have right now is rooted in the Basketball Philosophy of its Management Team which continues to place far too much emphasis on the Individual Offensive ability of specific players and not nearly enough emphasis on those same players’ Individual Defensive ability.

Until the Raptors add more multi-dimensional players to their roster with the ability to defend their position[s] effectively AND reward those players with additional playing time during important parts of games, Toronto will continue to be little more than a high scoring [entertaining?] Treadmill Team.

When the bell finally tolls …

Statistics do a number on Raptors
An illustration: when Parker, Bosh and Jose Calderon were on the court together without Bargnani last year, they played nine points above average. With Bargnani thrown into the mix, they dropped to four points below average.

“I can’t explain why that is, but it is a dramatic swing,” Winston says. “This is concrete evidence that he isn’t helping the team. It’s important that they know that if he plays a lot of minutes and does not improve, they’ll win fewer games.”

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As regular readers of this space can attest, this is an observation which was made, repeatedly, by yours truly throughout the 2008-2009 season … and going even further back than that … based on Basketball Acumen, specific situational stats and Possession Outcome Charts, to the consternation of some Raptors fans obsessed with an individual player’s seasonal ”game stat averages” [i.e. basic and advanced] and/or drunk on the Kool-Aid distributed by the organization.

At the end of the day …

1. Those being truly ‘objective’ in their analysis and criticism of the Raptors and Andrea Bargnani have correctly identified his individual ’strengths and weaknesses’ and his ‘negative effect’ on the performance of the team, on the whole.

2. This year’s final EC standings are going to be very tight between the No. 6 and No. 12 positions and, although the Raptors should be in the mix the entire way, there is little indication to this point that they will be a better team than Atlanta, Washington, Miami, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, Charlotte, New York and Indiana … following the Big 3 of Boston, Cleveland and Orlando.

3. “The proof of the pudding is in the eating.”  - Anonymous

There are many subtlties involved in developing an accurate description of a solid but unspectacular player who has a valuable role to play for a good-very good team-great team in an environment like the NBA which the “average fan” has considerable difficulty trying to understand properly.

Case in point:

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Exhibit A

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… who was never truly appreciated in Raptorville for what he brings to the table in the NBA, as a player that:

- was not the most useful return possible in the Rafael Araujo trade
- was overpaid paid unnecessarily during the last 2 seasons, given the derth of actual burn he got from the Raptors’ coaching staffs
- was a whole lot more effective than Andrea Bargnani, by comparison, at the #4/PF position, as a complementary “Back-up” front-court running mate when “starting” beside Chris Bosh [C]

Training Camp Report: Day Two, Humphries Turns Heads
The Mavericks feel that their off-season trades and signings addressed their defensive deficiencies prior to this season. Now Dallas is focused on bringing the new Mavs up to speed with the returning players to build a cohesive defensive unit.

An unheralded player, who is turning heads early in camp and providing defensive help in the interior, is Kris Humphries.

“(Humphries) has really impressed me. He’s a physical force inside, but he has outside touch. He has a high basketball I.Q., so he’s been a surprise,” Terry said.

The five-year veteran, who came to the Mavs in the four-team trade that delivered Shawn Marion, is looking to prove he is more than just an add-on. The 6-foot-9, 235-pounder could provide Dallas with a physical presence after the departure of Brandon Bass.

“He’s been extremely consistent,” Carlisle said of Humphries early in camp. “He’s a physical kid and an underrated player. He had a strong summer and he picks things up very quickly. He’s a guy that knows his game, and he knows how to be effective down there.”

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By no means should K-Hump ever be confused with a “star” NBA player. However, the manner in which he was used, and mis-used, by the Raptors during his time in Toronto should be considered as the working [pictoral?] definition for what,

“A Wasted Opportunity To Make Something Substantial … Basically From Nothing … Actually Looks Like In The NBA,  Regarding A Highly Serviceable Role Player.”

If the Mavs finally make the decision to use Dirk Nowitzki as their primary Center this season … primarily to give Shawn Marion and Josh Howard the amount of PT their skill-sets warrant, as bookend Forwards [i.e. #4/PF and #3/SF, respectively] in an under-sized but very athletic line-up … it should come as no surprise, whatsoever, at least, to astute NBA observers, if K-Hump steps up to grab the available MP at the #4/PF position [over Drew Gooden], given the recent departure of Brandon Bass [PF, Orlando, UFA].

Operating beside, either, [A] Dirk, or [B] Dampier, Kris Humphries will be a good fit for Dallas this year, given his [i] physical toughness, [ii] ability to Rebound & Defend the #4/PF position, [iii] run the floor in transition and [iv] score the ball in bunches, working under a solid head coach like Rick Carlisle.
Related:

Humphries pushing for larger role with Dalla Mavericks

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

The first back-2-back of the season for the Raptors will be a difficult one to win. In general, whichever team gets the best player in a NBA trade will eventually be seen as “the winner” in that specific transaction. In this instance, Dallas won the 4-team player swap of the summer by acquiring Shawn Marion, who is a flat-out better player than Hedo Turkoglu. Shifting Dirk Nowitzki to the Center position this season will present the Mavericks with their best possible 5-Man Unit, allowing Josh Howard and The Matrix to co-exist as interchangeable #3/SF-#4/PF’s, in an under-sized line-up that is going to be very difficult for opponents to match-up against, given their ability to rebound ball with their superior athleticism. Rookie PG, Rodrigue Beaubois has the makings of a future “star” in the NBA, and it will be very interesting to see whether or not the Mavs choose to integrate him into their line-up this season with J-Kidd, Jason Terry and JJ Barea still on their roster. The Mavs are going to be a very good team this season and a tough out in the WC playoffs.

Game 6– @ Dallas [Sat Nov 07]

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 2-4

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando - High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland - High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston - High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington - Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte - Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee - Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York - Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey - Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: 

the picture produced is somewhat different.

Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:

* MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];

* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,

* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].

An accurate understanding of what exactly is going on these days in Raptorville is not arrived at easily for many of the team’s rabid fans who are active participants in the on-line hoops community. Amidst the general euphoria that has taken hold in the aftermath of last week’s seemingly stunning 4-team trade extravaganza with Dallas, Orlando and Memphis … which netted the Raptors:

* Hedo Turkoglu [F, Orlando, UFA]
* Antoine Wright [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season]
* Devean George [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season], and
* Preserved their right to use the Mid Level Exception [MLE], the Low Level Exception [LLE], and exercise their [Larry] Bird Rights towards resigning their own Unrestricted Free Agents [UFA]

at the expense of:

* Shawn Marion [Sign & Trade with Orlando, UFA]
* Kris Humphries [trade with Dallas; injured much of last season]
* Nathan Jawai [trade with Dallas; disabled much of last season]
* 2nd Round Draft Pick/2016 [trade with Dallas]
* Cash Considerations [trade with Dallas] 

The stark reality of this team’s current situation is perhaps best reflected in the bright lights of the following 5 observations:

PART ONE
The post-trade outlook for the Raptors which was first put together by “Dave” [nbaroundtable, Thu July 9], extolling the possible virtues:

Where do the Raptors go from here?

PART TWO
The specific comment which “Dave” then left in a different thread on his blog, later that same afternoon, indicating his actual thoughts on their chances to succeed with their current roster configuration:

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Four team trade: Shawn Marion to Dallas
2011/12

This is the Raptors fail safe option. When they fail, and they will fail, they need to have this option open to them and then use this option.

This means no extra contracts that last beyond two years. I will dislike pretty much any contract that goes beyond two seasons. As long as the contract is than two seasons, spending that money doesn’t bother me in the slightest.

Dead End

The Raptors are going nowhere, and they need a miracle to happen for this plan to have any chance of working out. The Raptors are going to run into [sic] dead end.

Now, it’s time just to sit back and let things play out. Things will not improve until Colangelo figures out Bargnani isn’t a cornerstone of this franchise … until that happens, there’s nothing else that can be done to put the Raptors on the right road.

The Raptors can’t get out of the corner that they’ve boxed themselves into, until Bargnani is moved on. Any aspirations for a title are on hold until this happens.

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PART THREE
The specific comment which was made on this blog [July 11, 11:35 AM], by yours truly, that addressed the supposed “Qualitative Improvement” of the Raptors current roster pieces in comparison with last season’s end-of-year squad, pertaining to the question of:

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Which team made out best from 4-team trade?
IMO, the Raptors have made upgrades in certain areas thus far but it would be a mistake in judgment to assess this improvement as being “a lot better“, just yet:

No BEFORE ADV AFTER

1 Calderon = Calderon
2 Parker <– Wright … AP is significantly better
3 Marion = Turkoglu … Turkoglu is NOT significantly better
4 Bosh = Bosh
5 Bargnani = Bargnani
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6 Ukic = Ukic
7 Kapono –> DeRozan * … cyclical due to draft
8 Graham = George … Devean is NOT significantly better
9 Humphries = Evans … Reggie is NOT significantly better
10 O’Bryant –> Nesterovic … Rasho is much better!
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11 Douby = Delfino … is different but NOT much better
12 Mensah-Bonsu = Mensah-Bonsu
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13 Banks = Banks
14 Jawai ? Barnes … jury still out on Nathan
15 Voskuhl = O’Bryant

Those who are looking at these changes in an excessively positive light are the ones looking through rose-coloured spectacles.

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PART FOUR
The Shifting Player Personnel Chart that was constructed by yours truly yesterday:

which shows the drastic player changes that have happened with the Raptors for each of the past two seasons. 

PART FIVE
The glaring RED ALERT that was issued on Sunday by David Berri [i.e. noted economist, NBA "sage & soothsayer", author of The Wages of Wins Journal]:

Dashing Hope in Toronto
Not a Pretty Picture in Toronto

When we put the whole picture together, it appears the Raptors will employ the following starting line-up in 2009-10: Calderon (PG), Wright and/or DeRozan (SG), Turkoglu (SF), Bosh (PF), Bargnani [C].  Last season the NBA veterans in this line-up combined to produce fewer than 30 wins. So unless these players improve dramatically, or the team finds very productive players off the bench, it’s hard to see how this team improves dramatically.  And that’s true even if Delfino returns to Toronto (although if Evans returns to what we saw in the past there might be some hope this team can get past 40 wins).

All of this means that

1. Turkoglu will be seeing much more money in 2009-10, but probably far fewer wins.
2. Bargnani will also see much more money, but it seems unlikely he is ever going to produce many wins.
3. Bosh will see even more money after this next season, but if the Raptors don’t approach 45 or 50 wins (which seems likely) then it seems unlikely that the money Bosh is paid in the future is going to be paid by the Raptors.
4. So it looks likely the Raptors record performance in 2007-08 will stand for awhile.  In other words, if Bosh departs this team in 2010, then rebuilding will probably continue beyond 2009-10.
5. And this means — assuming the Raptors don’t make any major change to this team — the fans of the Raptors will keep paying money to see a team that’s not contending for a title.

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Experience says that when disparate individuals like:

1. “Dave” [nbaroundtable] … who combines statistics with Basketball Acumen;

2. khandor [that's me ] … who relies primarily on Basketball Acumen;

and,

3. David Berri … who relies heavily on a statistical approach to the analysis of on-court production for players in the NBA;

actually arrive at a similar conclusion … which is essentially opposed to the GENERAL CONSENSUS that exists in Raptorville today … it portends of difficult times ahead for this team in the coming season.

In the best interests of the franchise, let’s hope that all three of these “stray birds” are eventually proven to be wrong in their assessment of the team. 

Prior to the recent transaction between the Raptors [Bryan Colangelo], Mavericks [Donnie Nelson], Magic [Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik] and Grizzlies [Chris Wallace], this is what each of those team’s rosters looked like:

Coming out the other side, today, this is what they look like now, respectively:

Legend:
UFA - Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA - Restricted Free Agent; R - Rookie Player; TPE - Traded Player Exception; DP - Draft Pick; CC - Cash Considerations

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The Perspective From This Corner

The fact is, however, that the Cleveland Cavaliers [Danny Ferry] MAY have benefitted most of all from this specific transaction, as they subsequently gained unfettered access to Anthony Parker, the exact sort of complementary wing player they were searching for … to augment LeBron James & Co., in an effort to win their 1st NBA Championship. 

Your feedback is welcome in the “Comments” section.

Earlier this spring, yours truly was asked to provide an example of the type of player who SHOULD be obtained by the Raptors in a trade which involved Andrea Bargnani, as a possible #4/PF to play beside Chris Bosh [as the Dino's main-frame Center]. The two names that came to mind straight away were Anderson Varejao [unrestricted] and David Lee [restricted], both of whom are designated as Free Agents at the moment.

Two years ago, as a restricted free agent, the Cavaliers took a long time bringing Varejao into the fold, only doing so after a protracted hold-out. This past season he played as a Starting #4/PF for Cleveland, riding shot-gun for LeBron James, to the tune of 66 W’s in the regular season campaign. As a 27 year old player, going into his 6th season in the NBA, Varejao [6-10, 260] is the sort of effective, role-playing, garbage man who could excel beside Bosh, in a number of different ways [e.g. Offensively, Defensively and in terms of Rebounding].

Right now … in the aftermath of trading for the Big Diesel … the Cavs are in the market for a wing player with solid defensive skills, big game experience and a lively pair of legs with the ability to re-energize their offense without needing the ball in his his hands a great deal of the time.

Do the Raptors have a player on their roster, at the moment, who fits the bill, in this regard … that could possibly be used in a sign and trade to secure the services of Mr. Varejao in return?

By chance … Yes, they do.

His name happens to be Shawn Dwayne Marion … and he’s a perfect fit for Cleveland to complete their roster, hunting for their 1st NBA Title next spring. He is an under-sized, highly energetic #4/PF, who would thrive playing beside [and between] King James and Shaq Daddy. 

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A second good option for the Raptors is David Lee.

Raps setting their sights on Knicks’ big man Lee
The Raptors are widening their NBA free-agent search that now includes one of the more intriguing players on the market.

Capping a whirlwind 24 hours to open the negotiating period, league sources say Toronto is trying to obtain David Lee, an energetic rebounder who is a New York Knicks restricted free agent.

The sources couldn’t say whether the move on Lee would be a straight offer or whether it would be a sign-and-trade transaction with any of Toronto’s current free agents …

Lee, 26, had a breakout year with the Knicks last season, averaging 16 points and 11.7 rebounds a game. He had a salary of just about $1.8 million (all figures U.S.) and is seen as one of the top young free agents out there; he’s a restricted free agent so if Toronto were to simply make an offer and not try to engineer some sign-and-trade transactions, the Knicks could match it.

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Instead of chasing after a good but older player with their available money this summer … e.g. Hedo Turkoglu [age 30] … the Raptors would be much further ahead if they pursued either Anderson Varejao or David Lee AND then used him as their Starting Power Forward beside Chris Bosh [C] this season.

If the Raptors would have just drafted Derrick Brown last Thursday night …

1 Jose Calderon
2 Anthony Parker
3 DeMar DeRozan
4 Carlos Delfino
5 Derrick Brown
6 Reggie Evans
7 Anderson Varejao or David Lee
8 Chris Bosh [Center]
9 Andrea Bargnani

that’s the sort of 9-Man CORE GROUP which could:

* Win their fair share of regular season games this coming season
* Convince CB4 to re-sign with the Raptors next summer 
* Be the foundation of a solid contending team in the EC for the next decade.

By initiating legitimate discussions with Danny Ferry and Donnie Walsh there are all sorts of possibilities which exist for Bryan Colangelo to improve the Raptors this off season … including possible trades involving other talented young players - e.g. Andrea Bargnani, Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, JJ Hickson and Danny Green - on each of their respective rosters.

There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:

Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.

In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.

So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.

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By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]

OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]

SMALL FORWARDS
* None

POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]

CENTERS
* Johan Petro {#4]