khandor’s sports blog

FYI …

re: Basketball on Paper WAR and the Best Peak Regular-Season Players Since 1978

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Comment #45
khandor Says:
August 1st, 2011 at 11:29 am

re: “Also the #1, #3, and #8 seasons are all from the ’80s. They belong to Jordan, but they took place in the ’80s.”

When MJ was at his most prolific level of statistical production, as an individual player, the teams he played on were incapable of winning the League Championship. Hmmm … However, as he then began to develop a more mature/sophisticated understanding of “How the game of basketball is actually supposed to be played, at its highest level of competition”, he produced individual stats which were less prolific AND the teams he played on were then able to capture multiple League Championships. Hmmm … Likewise, other all-time great players like Bill Russell, Magic Johnson, and Larry Bird are only found further down the stat charts which purport to measure accurately the “individual ability” of an individual basketball player who, by definition, functions exclusively within a “team” environment comprised of 3 main phases [i.e. Offense, Defense and Rebounding]. Hmmm … It continually amazes that so many seemingly intelligent people spend copious amounts of time looking in the wrong direction when trying to identify correctly those who rightfully qualify as being amongst the legitimate group of GOATs. In no particular order … What determines an individual player’s ability to play the game properly are relatively innocuous things like Assists, Rebounds, Assists/Turnovers, Steals, Deflections/Tips, Blocked Shots, Successful Helps & Rotations, Penetrations [i.e. allowed & made], Appropriate Cuts & Floor Spacing, Screen & Pick execution [i.e. setting & evading], Conditioning, Energy [i.e. positive, neutral, or negative], Team Spirit, and Competitive Greatness … the group of which cannot yet be found in a single reliable metric, TTBOMK. Conversely, examining “Just how far above the production level of an ‘average’ player someone is,” would appear to be little more than a giant waste of resources … at least, when it comes to increasing the current level of understanding for what’s actually required to win the League Championship. In the end, isn’t THAT really what the game is all about?

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In general, Neil Paine does a terrific job running the Basketball-reference.com blog.

For considerable stretches this season … the fact is … the Cleveland Cavaliers were the best team in the NBA. During those specific periods of time the Cavs played the game in specific ways, while making excellent use of the different players on their roster, given their individual strengths and weaknesses.

Exhibit A

Exhibit B

However, in the Cavs’ abbreviated playoff run, their coaching staff made the seemingly inexplicable decision to fundamentally alter the way that they would use their collection of players in the post-season …

… which has now resulted in their elimination from further competition for the 2009-2010 NBA Championship and, quite possibly, thrown their organization into upheaval.

The best review of Cleveland’s Game 6 defeat, last night, at the hands of the Boston Celtics [NBA Champions, 2008-2009], which these eyes have seen, so far, can be found right here [by Dave, at nbaroundtable].

This is the comment which yours truly contributed:

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If Kevin Garnett had been 100% healthy this season, then … according to your truly:

1. Danny Ainge would not have traded Eddie House … and,

2. The Boston Celtics would have been THE CLEAR-CUT FAVOURITES to represent the Eastern Conference in the 2009-2010 NBA FINALS … and,

going into these playoffs,

3. This corner would have tabbed the Celtics, in advance, to defeat the Cavaliers, in this 2nd Round series, primarily, for the following 2 reasons:

i. The 5-man unit comprised of Rajon Rondo, PG + Ray Allen, OG + Paul Pierce, SF + Kevin Garnett [at 100%], PF-C + Kendrick Perkins, C-PF is, still, the VERY BEST in the NBA today;

and,

ii. Doc Rivers is a championship-winning NBA head coach, who really does know what he’s doing, in the grand scheme of things, while Mike Brown, unfortunately, is not.

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For his own peace of mind, yours truly sincerely hopes that Mike Brown has a comprehensive answer to question of:

Why exactly he chose to abandon the player substitution patterns which had previously been successful for the Cavaliers this season?

… and, instead of using some combination of those possible rotations against these Celtics, he elected to:

I. Sit out JJ Hickson, completely;

II. Limit the use of Delonte West;

III. Limit the use of Jamario Moon;

iv. Sit out Jawad Williams, completely;

v. Fail to use the front-court tandem of Shaquille O’Neal [C] and JJ Hickson [PF];

vi. Use Shaquille O’Neal for more than 20 minutes per game;

vii. etc., etc., etc., … 

because there is absolutely NO SOUND REASON, whatsoever, yours truly can suggest for him to have taken this path of action, at this point.

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The writing has been on the wall in Cleveland for, at least, the last 2 seasons and it’s always a sad day when the lives of so many otherwise good people are effected negatively and inexoribly altered because a pro sports franchise is finally perceived to have grossly under-achieved under the direction of a specific head coach [and the general manager who hired him, in the first place].

Best believe that a player of LeBron James’ ilk … i.e. a multi-dimensional performer who can pass the ball, score, rebound and defend … saw first-hand precisely what was visible to yours truly during the 2nd and 3rd quarters of Game 5.

Pay particular attention to the way in which he reacts in this video clip:

every time Mike Brown’s name is mentioned, or a member of the media asks a question about the gameplan from Tuesday and the wonky substitution patterns which materialised seemingly from thin air in Game 5.  

In order for the Cavaliers to win Game 6 this evening they will need to:

1. Stop playing Shaquille O’Neal for more than 20 minutes per game;

2. Return to using JJ Hickson for, at least, 20 minutes per game;

3. Return to using Delonte West for, at least, 20 minutes per game;

4. Return to using Jamario Moon for, at least 10 minutes per game;

5. Return to using Anderson Varejao for, at least, 27 minutes per game;

6. Return to using LeBron James, as their Back-up Point Guard … i.e. whenever Mo Williams is off the floor … in conjunction with the following group of 8 players:

Delonte West, OG
Anthony Parker, OG-SF
Jawad Williams, OG-SF
Jamario Moon, OG-SF
Antawn Jamison, PF
JJ Hickson, PF
Anderson Varejao, PF-C
Zydrunas Ilgauskas, C

in an assortment of 5-man units, given the fact that this group actually represents Cleveland’s set of most capable defensive and/or rebounding focused players.

On the other hand …

If Shaquille O’Neal is afforded the opportunity to repeat his “stellar” performance from Game 5:

tonight’s game 6 will, in all likelihood, mark the end of Cleveland’s season and Mike Brown’s tenure, as the Cavaliers’ head coach.

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Q1. How come, you ask?

A1. Because … defense is tha backbone!

and, unfortunately, The Big Diesel no longer has THAT specific skill in his once formidable repertoire.

… ksb listens.

Although you might think you already know exactly who this man is …

after the first 13 years of his Hall-Of-Fame career which includes the following ridiculously long list of accomplishments:

Tim Duncan’s NBA.com Bio

Trust that … according to his side-kick, Mr. Ginobili … you may not.

Yes, Gregg Popovich has long been known to refer to him simply as “Timmy.”

And, yes, several years ago, Shaquille O’Neal teasingly christened him ”The Big Fundamental.”

But … from this point forward … he will now be known to yours truly as,

“THE BIG WARRANTY,”

which is the apt nickname that was bestowed on him this evening, in an in-game interview segment given by Charles Barkley’s favourite Argentinian … just before his nasal bone was unceremoniously displaced by making inadvertent contact with Dirk Nowitzki’s left elbow.

Said Manu, at the time, about his legendary teammate, the Spurs’ #21,

“He’s just always there … like a big insurance policy.”

Nothing more, and nothing less, than that.

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PS. The time is now 11:51 PM, and you can bet your bottom dollar that Manu’s nose was actually broken on that play, early in the 3rd quarter … and, yet, after stopping the profuse bleeding and getting patched up in the Spurs’ locker-room, by their trainer, he’s now continued to play in this game – driving to basket, fearlessly, rebounding, and defending. That … dear friends … is precisely “How a warrior – and a 3-time NBA Champion – conducts himself, in the heat of battle.” What a fantastic Game 3 this is!

A dried up little pond?

Oh, my.

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The Cavs are Magic’s biggest rival because of aura and arrogance of Shaq
It’s about Shaq, stupid.

He’s the biggest reason the Cavs are the team Orlando most wants to beat.

He’s the guy who wrecked this franchise all those years ago. He’s the guy who called Orlando “a dried-up little pond.” He’s the guy who called Magic coach Stan Van Gundy a “nobody,” a ”bum” and a “master of panic.” He’s the guy who called Magic superstar Dwight Howard “an impostor.”

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If there’s any doubt what the biggest game is tonight, in the NBA, that quote from Shaq-daddy should, rightly, have just put an end to the debate.

The current wagering line for this match-up is:

Cleveland -1/-101

with Orlando in the 2nd half of a back-2-back, coming off last night’s victory at Charlotte.

Games like this one are frequently exceptional money-making opportunities, i.e. Khandor’s Sports Service, Games Of The Day.

There are many different ways to track the performance of an individual player, or specific combinations of players, in a NBA game.

When you do this work, what you find, somteimes, can be most revealing.

This is what the “Substitution Chart” looks like for Wednesday’s game between Toronto and Cleveland.

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It contains a fair amount of useful information, if you take the time to examine it in detail.

For example:

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There were, at least, 2 items from Wednesday’s victory that should be of some concern to the Raptors, heading towards this evening’s Game 2, vs Memphis:

1. The way that Bosh/Bargnani performed against the Cavs’ combinations of PF/C’s not named O’Neal/Ilgauskas or Varejao/O’Neal;

and,

2. The 39:44 played by Chris Bosh … in a game where the Raptors had a 21 point lead just prior to half-time … with a brace on his right knee for precautionary reasons.

Something to keep your eyes on as Toronto makes its way through the first 20 games of its regular season schedule.

Cleveland 91
TORONTO 101
Game Scoreboard

Keys to Victory for the Raptors

1st QUARTER

* Got off to a quick start on the strength of the individual match-up advantage held by Andrea Bargnani [13 pts, superior quickness] over Shaquille O’Neal [6 pts]; TOR 27, Cle 22

2nd QUARTER

* Built a 21 point lead [00:32.9, 57-36], shooting 10-17 [58.8/FG%] while limiting their opponent to 6-22 [27.2/FG%]; TOR 57, Cle 39

3rd QUARTER

* After Cleveland completely erased the deficit by the 2:22 mark [69-69], closed the period with a 7-0 run of their own, keyed by an offensive rebound putback from Chris Bosh [2:04, 71-69]; TOR 78, Cle 71]

4th QUARTER

* Took advantage of a questionable coaching decision by Mike Brown, who inexplicably elected to open the frame by going “Big” [i.e. O'Neal and Ilgauskas vs Bargnani and Bosh], which resulted in a 9-3 run by the Raptors to start the the quarter [10:15, 87-74] 

* Hung on gamely down the stretch, despite Cleveland cutting the margin to just 6 points [1:37]

OVERALL

Effectively used multiple pairings of Bigs:

PF AND C, +/-
Bosh and Bargnani, +12
Bosh and Nesterovic, +3
Johnson and Bargnani, +3
Turkoglu and Johnson, +2
Bargnani and Nesterovic, +2
Johnson and Bosh, + 1
Turkoglu and Nesterovic, 0
Wright and Nesterovic, 0 
Turkoglu and Bosh, -3
Wright and Bargnani, -3
Turkoglu and Bosh, -7

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