khandor’s sports blog

If you look at the straight-forward results for last night’s game between the Rockets and the Warriors:

Houston Rockets 121
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS 112
Complete Game Info

what you might notice right away is that:

1. Monta Ellis scored 44 points to keep Golden State within striking distance of Houston for the majority of the game;

2. Kevin Martin led the Rockets in scoring with 30 points;

and,

3. Luis Scola had a terrific all-around game for Houston, scoring 20 points and collecting 9 rebounds with 6 assists.

However …

What you might NOT notice right away … unless, of course, if you actually take the time to watch the game AND then:

i. Break it down, possession by possession, with the benefit of:

PART I – The Play-By-Play;

and,

PART II - A “Possession Outcome Chart” for last night’s game …

… are the outstanding contributions of, both, Courtney Lee [OG-SF] and Rick Adelman [Head Coach] in getting the W for Houston.

According to the Box Score data, Courtney Lee finished with a Plus/Minus total of +3 … which was only good enough to rank 6th for the Rockets. 

However …

What a more thorough review of the actual “data” reveals is that:

- Houston took control of this game for the final time at the 6:16 mark of the 4th quarter when Rick Adelman went with a five-man unit that included the following players:

Aaron Brooks, PG
Courtney Lee, OG
Kevin Martin, SF
Shane Battier, PF
Luis Scola, C  

- Courtney Lee only played 23:46 in this game

- 23 of the 44 points which Monta Ellis scored were when Rick Adelman made the mistake of NOT having Courtney Lee on the floor

- Only 14 of the 21 points which Monta Ellis scored when Courtney Lee was on the floor were scored when Lee was being used at the OG position    

- 7 of the 44 points which Monta Ellis scored were when Rick Adelman made the mistake of using a five-man unit that included the following players:

Brooks, PG
Lowry, OG
Lee/C, SF
Hill, PF
Miller, C

during the first 3:41 of the 4th quarter

- Once the Rockets shifted to a five-man unit that included the following players:

Lowry, PG [best defender]
Lee/C, OG [best defender]
Martin, SF
Battier, PF [best defender]
Scola, C [best defender]

which occurred at the 6:01 mark of the 4th quarter; then, Houston was able to open up a 9-point advantage - with 4 of their 5 best defensive players on the court – while holding Monta Ellis firmly in check the rest of the way [i.e. 4 points scored; 1 FGA; 2 FTM, in the last 30 secs, once the game had already been decided]

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Kudos to Coach Adelman! 

Those calling for Bryan Colangelo to be dismissed, as the GM for the Raptors, are delusional.

What the Raptors – and Bryan Colangelo – NEED to do, however, at this point in time, is implement a fundamental PARADIGM SHIFT … in the way that their basketball operation conducts its business, by prioritizing the objective of TRYING TO WIN MULTIPLE NBA CHAMPIONSHIPS through the gradual construction of a top notch player roster that is filled with solid “NBA level talent” [i.e. in terms of specific skill sets and athleticism] and a proven coaching staff.

As wrong as each of Bryan Colangelo’s major personnel moves have been, thus fas, in his tenure as the Raptors’ GM, the fact is …

1. He finally did the RIGHT THING … by failing to making any trades this season at the Trade Deadline;

and,

2. He is finally now saying the RIGHT THING … as far as [i] properly managing the expectations for the team heading into next season AND [ii] assessing accurately just how far away this current collection of players is from actually being able to compete successfully for a Top 4 playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, in the not-too-distant future …

provided that he is NOW willing to:

A. Keep Chris Bosh/C;

B. Exceed the Luxury Tax Threshold;

and,

C. Trade Andrea Bargnani/C, in exchange for a solid, veteran wing player with good size, NBA athleticism, and a commitment to sound defensive play and rebounding.

To wit:

Andrea Bargnani Trade Proposal

What this specific trade would accomplish …

OPTION 1

From a Raptors’ perspective:

Keeping Bosh would be Step 1.

Trading Bargnani for Battier + Taylor would be Step 2.

- it would rid the team of a defensive albatross
- it would add a 3rd string PG to play behind Calderon and Banks
- it would add a solid wing defender/rebounder with good size to go with the younger tandem of DeRozan and Weems

Step 3 would then involve trading Hedo Turkoglu.

Step 4 would then involve trading Jarrett Jack.

Step 5 would then involve keeping Amir Johnson.

Step 6 would then involve selecting another future rotation player with the 2010 1st Round Draft Pick.

The Raptors would then be moving forward with the following group of players:

1 Chris Bosh, C
2 Amir Johnson, PF
3 Shane Battier, SF
4 DeMar DeRozan, OG
5 Jose Calderon, PG

6 New Player #1 [obtained via trade for Turkoglu]
7 New Player #2 [obtained via trade for Jack]
8 Sonny Weems, OG-SF
9 Marco Belinelli, OG-PG
10 Jermaine Taylor, PG
11 Marcus Banks, PG
12 2010 1st Round Pick
13 New Player #3 [FA signed to replace Antoine Wright]
14 Reggie Evans, PF [or New Player #4, obtained via trade for Reggie Evans]
15 Rasho Nesterovic, C [re-signed for the veteran's minimum]

Patrick O’Bryant would not be re-signed.
Joey Dorsey would not be re-signed [or, he would replace Reggie Evans].

==============================

From the Rockets’ perspective:

1. Bargnani could play Center for them, if Yao Ming isn’t ready to go at the start of next season.

2. Bargnani could be used as Yao Ming’s offensively oriented back-up off the bench, if the big fella is ready to start the season.

3. Bargnani could be used at the PF position, beside Yao Ming, if the big fella is ready to start the seaon, and the Rockets want to go with a twin towers line-up.

——————————————–
NOTE: In every situation, Morey would need to play Bargnani with solid positional defenders in order to compensate for Il Mago’s deficiency in this area. Morey is smart enough to pull that off.
——————————————–

OPTION 2

The same as Option 1, above, except … the Raptors would simply elect to keep Hedo Turkoglu.

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What would the 2010-2011 roster then look like for the Raptors?

The more time an astute NBA observer actually spends looking at the depth chart involved with OPTION 2, the more this observer should then begin to see a variety of different possibilities which would be quite a positive development for the Raptors … moving forward … as a team that finished in the No. 9 position this season [especially if Bryan Colangelo can also get a future protected 1st Round Draft Pick included in the trade with Houston].

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Despite what some might think, yours truly is firmly in the Raptors’ corner and of the belief that the pro hoops franchise in Toronto has ALWAYS been just a few RIGHT moves away from being able to develop into one of the premier organizations in the entire NBA.

Last night’s game between the Houston Rockets and the Toronto Raptors served as an interesting benchmark for the on-going development of these two teams.

Toronto Raptors 92
HOUSTON ROCKETS 116

Complete Game Summary 

At the moment:

Toronto is 31-28/.525, 2nd in the Atlantic Division, and 5th in the Eastern Conference; while, Houston is 30-29/.508, 3rd in the Southwest Division, and 9th in the Western Conference.

Both teams played last night’s game without several key players in their respective line-ups, due to a variety of physical ailments/injuries:

Toronto
1. Chris Bosh/PF-C, leg injury [day-to-day] 
2. Jose Calderon/PG, arm injury [day-to-day]
3. Hedo Turkoglu/SF, leg injury [incurred last night]

Houston
1. Yao Ming/C, foot injury [expected to return next season]
2. Kyle Lowry/PG, leg injury [day-to-day]
3. Trevor Ariza/SF, hip injury [day-to-day]

Examining the complete rosters for each team:

is an interesting exercise when considering:

i. Chris Bosh/PF-C becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer;

ii. Chris Bosh is originally from Dallas, Texas;

iii. The relative “NBA talent” base on these two rosters;

iv. The “playoff prospects” for these two teams:

A. This season, and
B. Beyond the current season. 

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* Tyler Hansbrough makes his summer league debut. Those who think that Larry Bird made a mistake with the No. 13 pick in the 2009 NBA Draft are going to be in for a surprise this season.

* Colangelo works fast and hard to get Turkoglu. Hedo is many things but a player who “creates” shots working off the dribble he is not. Expect THAT from him, without the benefit of a pick and you’ll be in for disappointment Raptors fans.

* What’s next? As the old adage goes: “Some of the best deals a team ever makes are the ones it doesn’t make, in the first place.” Solace for Blazers fans in the aftermath of winning losing the Hedo Turkoglu Sweepstakes.

* Buyer Beware! Things are not always as they first appear to be, when it comes to advantageous signings during the NBA’s free agency period.  

* Nick Collison says Thunder is ready for the next step. Sleep on Oklahoma City this coming season at your own peril.

There is no denying that King James hit a monster shot for the Cavaliers, in Friday’s Game Two, to steal a W …

but, it’s the small details that many NBA observers/analysts do not pay attention to or, in some cases, do not see at all, which separate the winners from the losers in countless numbers of games at this level of competition.

To wit:

I. Pay close attention to the position of Hedo Turkoglu’s outstretched arms and hands in the video clip above, as LBJ catches and then releases his buzzer-beating shot;

in comparison with …

II. The location of Shane Battier’s outstretched left and right arms, respectively, and his corresponding hand positions, in the pictures above.

What you should then be able to see for yourself is the difference between what’s referred to by yours truly as:

TOP NOTCH [in this case, Individual Defense]

vs

everything else.

What Shane Battier exhibits in these two pictures is properly described as Contesting A Perimeter Jumpshot, by putting a hand in the shooter’s face.

In sharp contrast, what Hedo Turkoglu did vs Lebron James’ jumpshot is properly described as Raising your arms at the end of a close-out and, in effect, doing nothing of any consequence to deter a high calibre shooter from making the shot at which he is looking.

Those who know what the NBA game is actually about will tell you instantaneously that the only way to EFFECT the outcome of a perimeter shot, once the shooter has the ball in his hands and has begun to elevate is, in fact, to obstruct his vision of the basket … and, then, hope that the shooter cannot make what he cannot see clearly.

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In general, there’s a difference between those who know what they’re doing and those who do not … and, most often, that difference is both very small AND very large, simultaneously.

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Update:

For the benefit of those who might doubt the veracity of the observations made here …

Nuggets, Lakers laud Lebron’s amazing shot
“He got a good look, no matter whatever Hedo does or whoever does, you can put your hand up, it’s not going to matter,” [Kobe] Bryant said. “If you get a good look at the basket, that ball’s going down.”

FINAL SCORE: ROCKETS 95, Lakers 80
Complete Game Info

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From The Lakers Perspective

1. Phil Jackson, with 9 NBA Championships to his credit already, is a terrific head coach … but he was out-coached last night by Rick Adelman.

2. Anytime Andrew Bynum was not on the floor, the Lakers’ interior defense [read as Pau Gasol] could not cope with Luis Scola, or Aaron Brooks, or Carl Landry.

3. There was no legitimate reason for Andrew Bynum [-1] to have only played 19:03 last night when Pau Gasol [-15/43:03] was repeatedly being abused by the Rockets on the defensive end of the floor. 

4. Given how the Rockets have used Luis Scola, Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry at the C and PF positions, since the injury to Yao Ming, it is simply criminal that Josh Powell [DNP-Coaches Decision] has been chained to the Lakers’ bench … considering that he is the single best match-up on the Lakers’ team vs an under-sized post player.

5. Derek Fisher is a physically sturdy PG … who is simply not quick enough to cope with a player like Aaron Brooks and does not possess the type of low-post game it takes to punish the Rockets’ diminuitive PG at the offensive end of the floor.

6. Given how well Jordan Farmar [21:00] and Shannon Brown [09:12] have played in this series Derek Fisher [1-7, FGM-FGA] should not be getting 21:24 of floor time.

7. Sasha Vujacic [06:34] and Luke Walton [15:50] are two highly serviceable players who were not used effectively last night vs the Rockets’ [i] small back-court combo of Brooks & Lowry and their [ii] physical forward combo of Artest & Battier, respectively.

If the Lakers are going to advance to the Western Conference Finals and then have success against the Denver Nuggets … and eventually the Celtics, Magic or Cavaliers … Phil Jackson will need to re-think how he is using his player personnel. If he fails to do this … and, instead, stubbornly sticks with the same old same old … the Lakers will not win this year’s NBA Championship.

From The Rockets Perspective

1. At this point, Houston is playing with house money.

2. Basketball is fundamentally a game of quickness, relative to the oppenent, at the position played, and as long as the Rockets can accentuate their advantage in this aspect of the game there is every reason to believe that this team can succeed, if they make their fair share of open and contested shots.

3. Going at the Lakers last night with an interior attack focused on the Scola vs Gasol match-up was a stroke of genius by Rick Adelman. See the seminal article by Malcolm Gladwell on the way in which David must attack Goliath if he hopes to succeed, i.e. through the use of unconventional/unexpected strategies & tactics.

4. Winning Game 7, on the road, will still be a mighty chore.

5. It’s a treat to watch this collection of NBA players & coaches give their all in the face of such adversity.

6. The NBA game is based upon individual and team match-ups … and, the outcome of Game 7 in this series will depend on the answers to these two straight-forward questions:

I. Can Rick Adelman continue to out-fox the ZenMaster?

II. Which team is going to make more shots than the other?

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Far too frequently too many so-called “NBA experts/observers” try to make the game much more complicated than it actually is. 

Bombs Away! - Rockets ready to unleash another three-point barrage on Lakers
Battier’s tale isn’t unique, of course. In fact, it precisely highlights the same sort of theme which lies at the heart of Malcolm Gladwell’s brilliant new feature on the art of the upset. The article argues that if David fights Goliath on the giant’s terms, Goliath will win nearly every time. But by bending the rules and defying convention, Davids everywhere can tilt the odds in their favor. It’s a reality witnessed not just in the Biblical narrative, but also on battlefields and basketball courts throughout history, as Gladwell so expertly points out.

All of which brings us to the reason behind Battier’s stroll down memory lane. Eight years after his Duke team overcame the loss of its best post player by unleashing a steady barrage of three-pointers, he finds himself in an eerily similar situation. Yao Ming is out, having been betrayed once again by a fractured foot. His absence leaves the Rockets woefully undersized; especially against a Lakers squad which boasts an embarrassment of riches when it comes to height and length up front.

Not surprisingly, Houston – having already entered its series with LA as decided underdogs – was instantly counted out the moment Yao’s injury news began circulating. Yet just like Battier’s Blue Devils, the Rockets immediately changed gears and shifted tactics, and the Lakers never knew what hit them. Featuring a starting line-up in which its tallest player was a mere 6-9, Houston dominated Game 4 by eschewing size for speed and quickness – and shooting lots and lots of threes. By changing direction midstream, the Rockets have stated their refusal to play by Goliath’s rules. They will do everything possible to fight the battle on their terms while accepting the results which follow. It’s admirable, sure. But in truth, they have no other choice.

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FINAL SCORE, Game 5: LAKERS 118, Rockets 78
Complete Game Info

If the biblical David had to win 2 of 3 match-ups vs Goliath he, too, would have been in a whole lot of trouble … just like the Houston Rockets find themselves in today, heading toward Game 6.

Yesterday’s action finished with the following results:

W-L: 0-2
Units: -3.16

which is a long way from par.

Overall, after Day 3:

W-L: 3-6
Units: -6.53

The good news is that with each game that passes, more is learned about the current state of these 16 playoff teams and where exactly the better investment  opportunities can be found, as the Playoffs progress.

===================================

Tue Apr 21 2009

Game 1 – 1/CAVALIERS vs 8/Pistons

Do not like the way the Pistons caved in during the latter half of the 4th quarter in Game 1. LBJ & Co. have their pedal to the metal right now and may open up even earlier this game vs what looks like a dispirited crew of from the Motor City. Can’t help but be leary, however, when asked to lay that many points against a tested outfit like the Pistons. Will sit back & watch, instead, with an eye focused on the upcoming Game 3.

Detroit +11/+104
CLEVELAND -11/-112
Call: Pass

Game 2 – 4/BLAZERS vs 5/Rockets

As much as Portland seemed like an attractive move on the weekend, there was much to like about the vim & vigar which Houston brought to the table on the road in Game 1. Aaron Brooks is going to be a tough cover for the Blazers all series long … unless Nate McMillan is brave enough to see the solid match-up possibility he has on his bench with the under-utilized Jerryd Bayless, who is thought to be a poorous defender overall but who is also quick enough, in this instance, to at least cause some worry for the diminutive floor general of the Rockets. As was mentioned in this space earlier this season … a major weakness for the Blazers heading into this post-season is the defensive deficiency of Steve Blake [PG]. A second viable which McMillan has at his disposal is to finally go with the Blazers best option at the PG-spot, i.e. Brandon Roy, right from the start, instead of waiting to “close” with him. Closing is not an option when you’re down by 30 in the 3rd Q. This would accomplish several things for Portland, not the least of which is get their best offensive player away from the “Deadly Duo” of Ron Artest and Shane Battier at the Wing positions for the Rockets. Who would Portland then go with on the Wings, in place of Roy? It would be terrific if they had a healthy Martel Webster ot insert right about now. In lieu of that, however, Rudy Fernandez would begin the game at the Off Guard position as the running mate to Nicolas Batum, with Travis Outlaw then sliding down to the SF position, where he is a much more physical presence for the Blazers … necessary to combat the size and strength of Ron Ron & Shane … and opening up a big man slot for Channing Frye [who can stretch Houston's D with his J] to get additional minutes as the 4th player in their front-court rotation, i.e. Przybilla & Oden at Center; Aldridge & Frye at Powr Forward. Moves like these are what separate the Top Notch coaches in the NBA from the also rans. For their part, the Rockets need to realize the opportunity which they now have in this series … against a rattled, inexperienced outfit like the Blazers, who were really shook in Game 1. Play with similar intensity and unselfishness again this evening … centered around the stellar work of Yao Ming, Aaron Brooks, Luis Scola [who just really knows HOW TO PLAY THIS GAME, like his Argentian brethren, Manu & Fabricio], Battier, and Artest – but also very ably supported by the likes of strong, physical role players like Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry and Von Wafer, at their respective positions - and the Rockets will be sitting in the catbird’s heading home to the Toyota Center.

Houston +6/-103
PORTLAND -6/-105
Call: Houston [2 units]

Game 3 – 1/Lakers vs 8/Jazz

The Lakers are going to win this game; take that to the bank. What is far less certain, however, is whether their relative lack of depth [in comparison with the Jazz's lengthy list of capable subs] and all out focus on the prize at the end of the rainbow will in fact allow them to pull away and THEN sustain their energy to get the cover. With 10 seconds left on the clock in the 4th quarter of Game 1, Utah was down by 13 points, intercepted a Lakers’ pass and had a wide open 3 from the TOTK to make the final margin 10 points, when the closing numbers were LA -11.5/-110. There’ll be far better games ahead on the schedule for the Lakers during this post-season. Trying to stay healthy and get to Utah with a 2-0 series lead might just be all the Lakeshow cares about this evening, and the cover be d*mned.

Utah +11.5/-105
LOS ANGELES -11.5/-105
Call: Pass