khandor’s sports blog

Yours truly has a considerable amount of R.E.S.P.E.C.T. for a talented “writer”, like Kelly Dwyer, who happens to use the wacky world of the NBA as on outlet for his artistic skill-set.

Where the problem arises, however, is when certain writers, stats gurus and other observers attempt to provide their “analysis” of how a specific basketball team actually functions, as a collective unit, in a positive, neutral, or negative way … and, unfortunately, completely miss the proverbial boat.

To wit:

Fact 1

This is what Brandon Jennings was quoted as saying, about the state of the Bucks franchise, last Friday:

BUCKS BEAT: Many officials concerned about their status

“Some guys have the mind-set of winning on the team and some guys just don’t. We traded a lot of pieces I feel like we should have kept, but that’s part of the business and you’ve got to roll with it.’‘

Fact 2

This is part of what Kelly Dwyer wrote in his article about Brandon Jennings & Co.:

Brandon Jennings is not happy with his new teammates

“Yeah, man. You can’t mess with success. There was a reason they feared the deer, and the reason was … Luke Ridnour?

Because last year’s roster and rotation is really only missing Ridnour, and 15-minutes-per-game big man Kurt Thomas.”

Fact 3

This is what Milwaukee’s line-up looked like last year:

i. In the immediate aftermath of the ‘trade deadline’, when

they beat the Miami Heat;

ii. At the end of the regular season schedule last year, when they beat the Boston Celtics, on the final day of the season;

iii. When they were eliminated from the Eastern Conference

Playoffs, in Game 7 of the 1st Round, by the Atlanta Hawks.

Fact 4

Milwaukee’s roster last season, after the trade deadline, included the following players:

Brandon Jennings, John Salmons, Carlos Delfino, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, Andrew Bogut, Ersan Ilyasova, Luke Ridnour, Royal Ivey, Charlie Bell, Jerry Stackhouse, Darnell Jackson, Francisco Elson, Kurt Thomas, Dan Gadzuric and Primoz Brezec 

each of whom was instrumental to the Bucks’ success at one point or another. 

Fact 5

This is what the Bucks’ line-up looked like last night, when they lost at Orlando [72-78] … which means that a current list of the additions and subtractions from their roster last season actually looks like this:

ADDITIONS
1 Earl Boykins [best described as a veteran scorer]
2 Corey Maggette [best described as a veteran scorer]
3 Drew Gooden
4 Keyon Dooling
5 Larry Sanders
6 Chris Douglas-Roberts
7 Michael Redd

[plus, Jon Brockman who was out of the line-up yesterday]

SUBTRACTIONS

1 Luke Ridnour [best described as a non selfish veteran]
2 Charlie Bell [best described as a non selfish veteran]
3 Dan Gadzuric [best described as a non selfish veteran]
4 Francisco Elso [best described a non selfish veteran]
5 Royal Ivey [best described as a non selfish youngster]
6 Darnell Jackson [best described as a non selfish youngster]
7 Primoz Brezec
8 Jerry Stackhouse

If you consider the respective skill-sets and other important personal attributes of the players who the Bucks have added to this year’s team … based on MORE THAN just their individual “production numbers” … compared to the COHESIVE collection of players they had last year … especially, amongst their set of Reserves [i.e. players No. 9-15] … it should be relatively easy to see the CORRECTNESS of what Brandon Jennings was talking about, when he was quoted on the current situation in Milwaukee.

From a ‘basketball analysis’ perspective …

It is a basic – but crucial – error in basketball judgment to think that the contributions of the non-rotational players on a given roster are NOT absolutely fundamental to the success or failure of a team in the NBA.

For the benefit of both Raptors and Bucks fans:

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a very entertaining and close game.

The word “benchmark” has the following definition:

bench·mark (bnchmärk)

As was mentioned yesterday, last night’s contest between Toronto and Milwaukee should have been viewed by each team as a pivotal game, and an early season barometer for where their respective franchise stands in relation to the other middle-of-the-pack squads in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto Raptors 95
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 117
Complete Game Summary

By no means should the Bucks be viewed as an ideal, or even an up-and-coming, franchise in the NBA, at this point in time. Milwaukee has:

- a talented, young Starting-calibre PG
- a defensively stout young Starting-calibre SF-PF 
- an all-around solid Starting-calibre C

who they can build around moving forward …

- a solid, experienced, head coach

who they can build with moving forward … and,

- a dead-weight former “franchise player”

who is no longer a major part of their team with a fairly hefty contract that is due to expire in just 2 years

- a slew of good-but-still-far-from-being-very-good back-up players on their roster

who they can use to fill in the gaps, while hoping to field a highly competitive team, on an annual basis …

and, then, prescious little more than that.

Yet, last night, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, after losing 8 of their previous 9 games … they were still able to dismantle the Raptors on the strength of [a] Brandon Jennings first-half scoring exploits, [b] solid team defense, and [c] individual offensive contributions from a host of different back-up players [e.g. Ersan Ilyasova , 17 pts; Roko Ukic, 17 pts; Carlos Delfino, 14 pts; Luke Ridnour, 15 pts].

Raptors fans who thought that their team’s recent 3-game winning streak was an authentic indication of a “righted ship”, heading toward the upper-middle region of the conference standings, sometime soon, were simply being delusional, once again. 

The road victory over Washington [7-12/.368, 10th/EC] was an overtime decision that could have gone either way at the end of regulation and at the final buzzer when Gilbert Arenas inexplicably missed an open lay-up.

The road victory over Chicago [7-13/.350, 11th/EC] was a relatively meaningless encounter against an opponent that is currently in free-fall … coping with [I] debilitating injuries to 2 key rotation players, both of whom are solid defender/rebounders, at their respective positions, and [II] the loss of their leading scorer from last season [i.e. Ben Gordon, who was not retained, as an UFA, this past summer].

The home victory over Minnesota [3-19/.136; 15th/WC] was secured in the final 90 seconds, when a 3PT shot from Antoine Wright [3FG% = 30.2] found the bottom of the net to push the Raptors’ precarious lead from 2 to 5 points.

On the other hand, last night’s game against the Bucks was a different beast entirely.

The Bucks were looking ahead at their next 3 opponents … i.e. vs the Blazers, vs the Lakers and @ the Cavaliers … and not liking what they saw, at all.

The Bucks are a solid middle-of-the-pack team this season:

[Ratings as of Mon Dec 05, 2009]

In last night’s game, key [revealing?] stats included:

When an opponent converts 3.5% more of its Total Shot Value, creates 5 more Possessions and a Points per Possession differential of 0.168, it indicates that your team was out-classed in a number of different ways.  

1/4 of the way through the regular season schedule, what should now be a legit concern for the Raptors organization, and its fanbase, is what you see when you look at the following two charts; appraising [i] where these two teams were last night:

and, then, [ii] where it looks as though they might be headed in the immediate future:

When the 2009-2010 off-season arrives and Chris Bosh sits down to evaluate where his chances might be the best to effectively challenge for a future NBA championship, realistically, do you think that he is going to perceive the Toronto Raptors as the No. 1 place for him to accomplish this goal in the no-too-distant future?

A team which might even be considered as beneath the decidedly “average” Milwaukee Bucks on the authentic depth chart in the East this season?

The Raptors next 4 games are:

Fri Dec 11 vs Atlanta [QR = 30; QIR = 9]
Sun Dec 13 vs Houston [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Tue Dec 15 @ MIAMI [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Wed Dec 16 @ ORLANDO [QR = 17; QIR = 2]

Legend: QR – Quality Rating [PDR/Points Differential Rank + PAR/Points Allowed Rank + RDR/Rebounding Differential Rank]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [#1-30]; as of Sun Dec 06.

When assessing the relative strength of these 4 opponents, it’s imperative that the Raptors [10-14] get their act together quickly, substantially improve their Team Defense, and win their up-coming 2 home games … or, face the very real possibility of amassing another extended losing streak [i.e. a 5-gamer this time] and an inauspicious W-L Record [10-18?].

What Toronto has done so far this season is no way to go about convincing Chris Bosh that he should actually re-sign with the Raptors, as one of the premier unrestricted free agents in 2010.

To paraphrase something once said by Yogi Berra, noted philosopher :

“Sometimes, it really does get late early out there … in the process of pursuing one’s own UFA.”

The Raptors would do well to not forget that Life Truism this season. 

In the interview Bryan Colangelo did with Eric Smith [FAN590], prior to the Raptors’ win vs the Bulls [Nov 11 2009], he said the following words:

“We’ll know what we’ve got by the end of the month.”

The Bosh Factor: Bryan Colangelo Won’t Be Patient With Early Losses

At the time, Toronto’s W-L Record was 3-4/.429.

11 days later, it is now 6-7/.462, good enough for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division and 9th place in the Eastern Conference.

Beginning with this afternoon’s home game vs Orlando, the Raptors will play 7 games over the next 11 days:

Game 14 Sun Nov 22 vs Orl [10-3/.769; 1st Southeast, 2nd EC]

Game 15 Tue Nov 24 vs Ind [5-5/.500; 4th Central, 8th EC]
Game 16 Wed Nov 25 @ CHA [3-9/.250; 4th (tie) Southeast, 10th (tie) EC]

Game 17 Fri Nov 27 @ BOS [9-4/.692; 1st Atlantic, 4th EC]

Game 18 Sun Nov 29 vs Pho [10-3/.769; 1st Pacific, 1st (tie) WC]

Game 19 Tue Dec 01 vs Was [3-9/.250; 4th (tie) Southeast, 12th (tie) EC]
Game 20 Wed Dec 02 @ ATL [11-3/.786; 1st Southeast, 1st EC]

which will take the team to the 1/4 pole of the regular season schedule.

This is the specific stretch of games that will reveal exactly what type of team the Raptors have, at the moment, and what can be expected from this group for the remainder of the season should there be no further major player personnel and/or coaching changes going forward.

While some voices in Raptorville believe the team’s performance during this stretch will turn out to be a source of tremendous optimism, and preceed a gradual upswing in the standings, as the season progresses …

45 Wins, and How the Raptors Will Get There [5-2, Nov 22 to Dec 02]

looking ahead, in September, from the vantage point of an astute NBA observer, this corner did not share that same perspective:

Raptors half-way through their first 20 games

According to his record, as a General Manager, Bryan Colangelo has a well-documented history of making an assessment of his team’s situation sometime in the first two weeks of December.

Tic toc, tic toc, tic toc … [Apr 11 2008]

If he likes what he has seen to that point, he continues moving forward, as is.

If, however, he does NOT like what he “thinks” he sees from his team … then, the fanbase best be prepared for a seismic shift, in terms of either player personnel and/or the head coach position.

Of scorpions, frogs, GMs & coaches [Apr 30 2008]

Wait a second … what’s really going on here [Dec 04 2008]

What is really going on here: Part II [Dec 05 2008]

Of scorpions, frogs, GMs & faces of the franchise [Mar 25 2009]

The next 2 weeks should prove to be a most interesting time in the 15 year history of the Toronto Raptors franchise. 

Related:

VC Declines Honour

A wonderful article by Gary D’Amato of the Journal Sentinel which chronicles the journey of Milwaukee’s Luc Richard Mbah A Moute [1st-year forward], courtesy of Dave at nbaroundtable.com.

———————————

Living a dream
Nobody looked at Luc Richard Mbah a Moute when he was 15 years old and predicted basketball greatness.

Born and raised in Yaounde, the capital city of the Republic of Cameroon in west-central Africa, Mbah a Moute wasn’t some precocious phenom discovered in middle school, coddled in high school and polished in summer camps. He didn’t tour with an AAU team or make Sports Illustrated’s “Faces in the Crowd.”

Mbah a Moute’s game was soccer and he was pretty good, tall and gangly but fast and athletic. When Cameroon won the gold medal at the 2000 Olympic Games, he stayed up all night, celebrating in the streets with his friends.

If he wasn’t playing soccer, he was helping plant corn or cassava on his grandparents’ farm in Bia Messe, a village on the outskirts of Yaounde, or hunting rabbits or swimming in the river.

To go from there – halfway around the world, living in a country where 48% of the population is below the poverty threshold and 30% are unemployed – to here – 22-year-old rookie starter for the Milwaukee Bucks, making more money in one year than his childhood friends will make in their lifetimes – well, it boggles the mind.

“It’s a dream every day I wake up,” Mbah a Moute says. “For me to come all the way from where I came to be here, it’s unbelievable. There’s a lot of people who never would have imagined this could happen. Even my friends back home, when I talk to them, they’re like, ‘I can’t believe it.’

———————————

The Prince is quickly becoming one of this corner’s favourite young NBA players, after culminating a fine career at UCLA.

When there are 8 teams in the Eastern Conference separated in the standings by only 4.5 games, between the 7th and 14th positions, at the half-way point of the regular season schedule, it speaks to the parity which exists today in the NBA.

The fact is …

There is very little tangible separation between any of these teams, whether they fall into the Middle-of-the-Pack or the Low End categories.

Injuries, coaching decisions and the different managerial moves which each team makes in-season will determine [i] which ones qualify for the playoffs this spring and/or [ii] become a likely candidate for substantial improvement heading towards next season and beyond.  

Q1. When the Code by which you live is, “Run, Run, Run …“, how can you possibly hope to respond … during times of hardship … with steadfastness?

A1. In all likelihood … you can’t.

———————————-

After an oftentimes spectacular 4+ years at the helm of the Phoenix Suns, head coach, Mike D’Antoni seems as though he will soon be moving on to - what he hopes will be – greener pastures.

In a searing indictment of all that’s at the root of the Basketball Philosophy, ‘Seven Seconds or Less‘ (Jack McCallum), Adrian Wojnarowski (Yahoo! Sports) explains the how’s & why’s.

D’Antoni ready to leave his desert mirage behind

Mandatory reading for all.

Colangelo waiting it out
As the Raptors lurch toward the post-season, Bryan Colangelo tempers his disappointment with the knowledge that the season isn’t yet complete.

“We have arguably a more talented team than last year, we have arguably under-utilized some of that talent to some extent this year at various points throughout the year,” the team’s president and general manager said yesterday.

——————————————-

Ominous words to hear for the Raptors’ head coach, Sam Mitchell, heading towards the post-season … given Bryan Colangelo’s track record of handling head coaches for the Phoenix Suns …

When things didn’t quite go according to plan, in Phoenix, it was the head coach who was changed.

A team that won …

49 games during the ’06-07 season, swept the Heat in the 1st Round of the Playoffs and was eliminated by the Pistons (2-4) in the 2nd Round;

41 games during the ’05-06 season and was eliminated in the 1st Round of the Playoffs (2-4) by the eventually NBA champions (Miami Heat);

47 games during the ’04-05 season and was eliminated in the 1st Round of the Playoffs (2-4) by the Wizards; and,

23 games during the ’03-04 season, missing the Playoffs completely;

need look no further than the following incident when it attempts, in earnest, to retrace the steps which have led to this year’s debacle (14-22) … where they’ve now fired their head coach (Scott Skiles) and are mired at the bottom of the Eastern Conference … i.e.

Big Ben allowed to wear headband

When an authoritarian taskmaster, like Scott Skiles, allows himself to be undermined by his own players, in this way, while working for a cohesive organization, like the Chicago Bulls … it becomes a no-win situation for all concerned … and eventually, inevitably, leads to untenable circumstances like these … e.g.

Bulls vote to bench Noah 
Struggles – and apparently strife – continue for Bulls

The Chicago Bulls will not turn around the fortunes of their franchise until Ben Wallace is no longer a part of their team, and order has been restored in their decision-making process.

Despite how it might look to team outsiders, the worst mistake Coach Skiles could have possibly made was to relent on his initial stance pertaining to the “headband issue” which first surfaced with this team last season.

Until this “type of cancer” is cut out, completely, Da Bulls are going nowhere.