khandor’s sports blog

It’s been said in this space on several occasions before …

Kelly Dwyer is a talented writer, who just happens to dabble in The Realm of Hoops, while being a basketball fan[-atic] but, from time-to-time, even he is sometimes prone to missing the mark completely, when it comes to analyzing with accuracy what specifically happened in a NBA game that permanently turned the tide in one team’s favour or the other:

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Detroit 93, Milwaukee 81

Another run from the Bucks where they just fell off the face of the earth, offensively. Nine points in the first quarter, and in a contest this slow, that was certain death as Detroit’s offense actually showed up.

Milwaukee rebounded with 29 in the second period, but this thing was more or less over by then. This was an 82-possession game, so that 12-point disparity needs to be reflected on properly. This was a blowout.

18 points on 12 shot attempts for Ben Gordon(notes) in the win.

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In the opinion of yours truly …

This game was far from being a BLOW-OUT.

Recap; Boxscore; and, Full Play-By-Play

When you take a closer look at the play-by-play, this is what you should be able to see:

This was a 2 point game when the 4th quarter began, i.e. Det 64, MIL 62, and the principal reason Milwaukee lost is because Scott Skiles failed to use his substitutes to their best advantage against a team with specific strengths and weaknesses like Detroit.

i.e. When he made the decision to “go small” up-front, resting Andrew Bogut, and going with the combination of Hakim Warrick/PF and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute/C against the Pistons tandem of Jonas Jerebko/PF and Jason Maxiell/C … during which time Detroit then increased its lead from 4 to 6 points 

i.e. When he then decided to “go small” at the guard spots, as well, matching-up the threesome of Brandon Jennings/PG, Charlie Bell/OG and Carlos Delfino/SF against Rodney Stuckey/PG, Ben Gordon/OG and Tayshaun Prince/SF, when the Pistons increased their size at the PG and SF positions [at the 7:08 mark] … during which time Detroit pushed its lead from 6 to 8 points [before Skiles responded by returning Bogut/C to the game and shifting Mbah A Moute back to PF].

i.e. When he never returned to the 5-Man Units which had been successful for Milwaukee during the earlier stages of the game:

[for example]

Ridnour + Bell + Stackhouse + Warrick + Ilyasova
Jennings + Bell + Stackhouse + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Ridnour + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Ridnour + Bell + Delfino + Ilyasova + Bogut

at any time during the 4th quarter and, instead, chose to use the following combinations of players:

Ridnour + Stackhouse + Delfino + Warrick + Bogut
Jennings + Stackhouse + Delfino + Warrick + Mbah A Moute
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Warrick + Mbah A Moute
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Bogut
Jennings + Bell + Delfino + Mbah A Moute + Ilyasova.  

The overall low number of possessions in this game was irrelevant to the eventual outcome.

The fact is …

1. The Bucks’ offense just didn’t “fall off the face of the earth” on its own in the 4th quarter, last night, and neither did the Pistons’ offense just happen to ”show up, all of sudden,” on its own accord.

2. In both cases, they were given a “healthy assist” by the specific personnel decisons which were made in that quarter by the Bucks’ head coach.

3. Congratulations to John Kuester for using his own personnel relatively well last night, in the 4th quarter, given what Coach Skiles was doing in return.

For the benefit of both Raptors and Bucks fans:

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a very entertaining and close game.

The word “benchmark” has the following definition:

bench·mark (bnchmärk)

As was mentioned yesterday, last night’s contest between Toronto and Milwaukee should have been viewed by each team as a pivotal game, and an early season barometer for where their respective franchise stands in relation to the other middle-of-the-pack squads in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto Raptors 95
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 117
Complete Game Summary

By no means should the Bucks be viewed as an ideal, or even an up-and-coming, franchise in the NBA, at this point in time. Milwaukee has:

- a talented, young Starting-calibre PG
- a defensively stout young Starting-calibre SF-PF 
- an all-around solid Starting-calibre C

who they can build around moving forward …

- a solid, experienced, head coach

who they can build with moving forward … and,

- a dead-weight former “franchise player”

who is no longer a major part of their team with a fairly hefty contract that is due to expire in just 2 years

- a slew of good-but-still-far-from-being-very-good back-up players on their roster

who they can use to fill in the gaps, while hoping to field a highly competitive team, on an annual basis …

and, then, prescious little more than that.

Yet, last night, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, after losing 8 of their previous 9 games … they were still able to dismantle the Raptors on the strength of [a] Brandon Jennings first-half scoring exploits, [b] solid team defense, and [c] individual offensive contributions from a host of different back-up players [e.g. Ersan Ilyasova , 17 pts; Roko Ukic, 17 pts; Carlos Delfino, 14 pts; Luke Ridnour, 15 pts].

Raptors fans who thought that their team’s recent 3-game winning streak was an authentic indication of a “righted ship”, heading toward the upper-middle region of the conference standings, sometime soon, were simply being delusional, once again. 

The road victory over Washington [7-12/.368, 10th/EC] was an overtime decision that could have gone either way at the end of regulation and at the final buzzer when Gilbert Arenas inexplicably missed an open lay-up.

The road victory over Chicago [7-13/.350, 11th/EC] was a relatively meaningless encounter against an opponent that is currently in free-fall … coping with [I] debilitating injuries to 2 key rotation players, both of whom are solid defender/rebounders, at their respective positions, and [II] the loss of their leading scorer from last season [i.e. Ben Gordon, who was not retained, as an UFA, this past summer].

The home victory over Minnesota [3-19/.136; 15th/WC] was secured in the final 90 seconds, when a 3PT shot from Antoine Wright [3FG% = 30.2] found the bottom of the net to push the Raptors’ precarious lead from 2 to 5 points.

On the other hand, last night’s game against the Bucks was a different beast entirely.

The Bucks were looking ahead at their next 3 opponents … i.e. vs the Blazers, vs the Lakers and @ the Cavaliers … and not liking what they saw, at all.

The Bucks are a solid middle-of-the-pack team this season:

[Ratings as of Mon Dec 05, 2009]

In last night’s game, key [revealing?] stats included:

When an opponent converts 3.5% more of its Total Shot Value, creates 5 more Possessions and a Points per Possession differential of 0.168, it indicates that your team was out-classed in a number of different ways.  

1/4 of the way through the regular season schedule, what should now be a legit concern for the Raptors organization, and its fanbase, is what you see when you look at the following two charts; appraising [i] where these two teams were last night:

and, then, [ii] where it looks as though they might be headed in the immediate future:

When the 2009-2010 off-season arrives and Chris Bosh sits down to evaluate where his chances might be the best to effectively challenge for a future NBA championship, realistically, do you think that he is going to perceive the Toronto Raptors as the No. 1 place for him to accomplish this goal in the no-too-distant future?

A team which might even be considered as beneath the decidedly “average” Milwaukee Bucks on the authentic depth chart in the East this season?

The Raptors next 4 games are:

Fri Dec 11 vs Atlanta [QR = 30; QIR = 9]
Sun Dec 13 vs Houston [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Tue Dec 15 @ MIAMI [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Wed Dec 16 @ ORLANDO [QR = 17; QIR = 2]

Legend: QR – Quality Rating [PDR/Points Differential Rank + PAR/Points Allowed Rank + RDR/Rebounding Differential Rank]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [#1-30]; as of Sun Dec 06.

When assessing the relative strength of these 4 opponents, it’s imperative that the Raptors [10-14] get their act together quickly, substantially improve their Team Defense, and win their up-coming 2 home games … or, face the very real possibility of amassing another extended losing streak [i.e. a 5-gamer this time] and an inauspicious W-L Record [10-18?].

What Toronto has done so far this season is no way to go about convincing Chris Bosh that he should actually re-sign with the Raptors, as one of the premier unrestricted free agents in 2010.

To paraphrase something once said by Yogi Berra, noted philosopher :

“Sometimes, it really does get late early out there … in the process of pursuing one’s own UFA.”

The Raptors would do well to not forget that Life Truism this season. 

In the interview Bryan Colangelo did with Eric Smith [FAN590], prior to the Raptors’ win vs the Bulls [Nov 11 2009], he said the following words:

“We’ll know what we’ve got by the end of the month.”

The Bosh Factor: Bryan Colangelo Won’t Be Patient With Early Losses

At the time, Toronto’s W-L Record was 3-4/.429.

11 days later, it is now 6-7/.462, good enough for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division and 9th place in the Eastern Conference.

Beginning with this afternoon’s home game vs Orlando, the Raptors will play 7 games over the next 11 days:

Game 14 Sun Nov 22 vs Orl [10-3/.769; 1st Southeast, 2nd EC]

Game 15 Tue Nov 24 vs Ind [5-5/.500; 4th Central, 8th EC]
Game 16 Wed Nov 25 @ CHA [3-9/.250; 4th (tie) Southeast, 10th (tie) EC]

Game 17 Fri Nov 27 @ BOS [9-4/.692; 1st Atlantic, 4th EC]

Game 18 Sun Nov 29 vs Pho [10-3/.769; 1st Pacific, 1st (tie) WC]

Game 19 Tue Dec 01 vs Was [3-9/.250; 4th (tie) Southeast, 12th (tie) EC]
Game 20 Wed Dec 02 @ ATL [11-3/.786; 1st Southeast, 1st EC]

which will take the team to the 1/4 pole of the regular season schedule.

This is the specific stretch of games that will reveal exactly what type of team the Raptors have, at the moment, and what can be expected from this group for the remainder of the season should there be no further major player personnel and/or coaching changes going forward.

While some voices in Raptorville believe the team’s performance during this stretch will turn out to be a source of tremendous optimism, and preceed a gradual upswing in the standings, as the season progresses …

45 Wins, and How the Raptors Will Get There [5-2, Nov 22 to Dec 02]

looking ahead, in September, from the vantage point of an astute NBA observer, this corner did not share that same perspective:

Raptors half-way through their first 20 games

According to his record, as a General Manager, Bryan Colangelo has a well-documented history of making an assessment of his team’s situation sometime in the first two weeks of December.

Tic toc, tic toc, tic toc … [Apr 11 2008]

If he likes what he has seen to that point, he continues moving forward, as is.

If, however, he does NOT like what he “thinks” he sees from his team … then, the fanbase best be prepared for a seismic shift, in terms of either player personnel and/or the head coach position.

Of scorpions, frogs, GMs & coaches [Apr 30 2008]

Wait a second … what’s really going on here [Dec 04 2008]

What is really going on here: Part II [Dec 05 2008]

Of scorpions, frogs, GMs & faces of the franchise [Mar 25 2009]

The next 2 weeks should prove to be a most interesting time in the 15 year history of the Toronto Raptors franchise. 

Related:

VC Declines Honour

A wonderful article by Gary D’Amato of the Journal Sentinel which chronicles the journey of Milwaukee’s Luc Richard Mbah A Moute [1st-year forward], courtesy of Dave at nbaroundtable.com.

———————————

Living a dream
Nobody looked at Luc Richard Mbah a Moute when he was 15 years old and predicted basketball greatness.

Born and raised in Yaounde, the capital city of the Republic of Cameroon in west-central Africa, Mbah a Moute wasn’t some precocious phenom discovered in middle school, coddled in high school and polished in summer camps. He didn’t tour with an AAU team or make Sports Illustrated’s “Faces in the Crowd.”

Mbah a Moute’s game was soccer and he was pretty good, tall and gangly but fast and athletic. When Cameroon won the gold medal at the 2000 Olympic Games, he stayed up all night, celebrating in the streets with his friends.

If he wasn’t playing soccer, he was helping plant corn or cassava on his grandparents’ farm in Bia Messe, a village on the outskirts of Yaounde, or hunting rabbits or swimming in the river.

To go from there - halfway around the world, living in a country where 48% of the population is below the poverty threshold and 30% are unemployed - to here - 22-year-old rookie starter for the Milwaukee Bucks, making more money in one year than his childhood friends will make in their lifetimes - well, it boggles the mind.

“It’s a dream every day I wake up,” Mbah a Moute says. “For me to come all the way from where I came to be here, it’s unbelievable. There’s a lot of people who never would have imagined this could happen. Even my friends back home, when I talk to them, they’re like, ‘I can’t believe it.’

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The Prince is quickly becoming one of this corner’s favourite young NBA players, after culminating a fine career at UCLA.

When there are 8 teams in the Eastern Conference separated in the standings by only 4.5 games, between the 7th and 14th positions, at the half-way point of the regular season schedule, it speaks to the parity which exists today in the NBA.

The fact is …

There is very little tangible separation between any of these teams, whether they fall into the Middle-of-the-Pack or the Low End categories.

Injuries, coaching decisions and the different managerial moves which each team makes in-season will determine [i] which ones qualify for the playoffs this spring and/or [ii] become a likely candidate for substantial improvement heading towards next season and beyond.  

Q1. When the Code by which you live is, “Run, Run, Run …“, how can you possibly hope to respond … during times of hardship … with steadfastness?

A1. In all likelihood … you can’t.

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After an oftentimes spectacular 4+ years at the helm of the Phoenix Suns, head coach, Mike D’Antoni seems as though he will soon be moving on to - what he hopes will be - greener pastures.

In a searing indictment of all that’s at the root of the Basketball Philosophy, ‘Seven Seconds or Less‘ (Jack McCallum), Adrian Wojnarowski (Yahoo! Sports) explains the how’s & why’s.

D’Antoni ready to leave his desert mirage behind

Mandatory reading for all.

Colangelo waiting it out
As the Raptors lurch toward the post-season, Bryan Colangelo tempers his disappointment with the knowledge that the season isn’t yet complete.

“We have arguably a more talented team than last year, we have arguably under-utilized some of that talent to some extent this year at various points throughout the year,” the team’s president and general manager said yesterday.

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Ominous words to hear for the Raptors’ head coach, Sam Mitchell, heading towards the post-season … given Bryan Colangelo’s track record of handling head coaches for the Phoenix Suns …

When things didn’t quite go according to plan, in Phoenix, it was the head coach who was changed.

A team that won …

49 games during the ‘06-07 season, swept the Heat in the 1st Round of the Playoffs and was eliminated by the Pistons (2-4) in the 2nd Round;

41 games during the ‘05-06 season and was eliminated in the 1st Round of the Playoffs (2-4) by the eventually NBA champions (Miami Heat);

47 games during the ‘04-05 season and was eliminated in the 1st Round of the Playoffs (2-4) by the Wizards; and,

23 games during the ‘03-04 season, missing the Playoffs completely;

need look no further than the following incident when it attempts, in earnest, to retrace the steps which have led to this year’s debacle (14-22) … where they’ve now fired their head coach (Scott Skiles) and are mired at the bottom of the Eastern Conference … i.e.

Big Ben allowed to wear headband

When an authoritarian taskmaster, like Scott Skiles, allows himself to be undermined by his own players, in this way, while working for a cohesive organization, like the Chicago Bulls … it becomes a no-win situation for all concerned … and eventually, inevitably, leads to untenable circumstances like these … e.g.

Bulls vote to bench Noah 
Struggles - and apparently strife - continue for Bulls

The Chicago Bulls will not turn around the fortunes of their franchise until Ben Wallace is no longer a part of their team, and order has been restored in their decision-making process.

Despite how it might look to team outsiders, the worst mistake Coach Skiles could have possibly made was to relent on his initial stance pertaining to the “headband issue” which first surfaced with this team last season.

Until this “type of cancer” is cut out, completely, Da Bulls are going nowhere.