khandor’s sports blog

In three different articles published today, Michael Grange, Dave Feschuk and Ryan Wolstat … each of whom is highly ‘respected’ by this corner of the blogosphere, specifically, for their expertise in their chosen craft … all say, basically, the same thing, concerning the outlook for the immediate future of the Toronto Raptors [11-17/.393; 2nd, Atlantic, 9th, East]:

Judgement day could be coming for Raptors
Raptors’ schedule takes pressure off
Raptors have time to turn it around | Toronto Sun

1. The schedule the team has played, thus far, has placed them squarely behind the 8-ball.  

2. The schedule of upcoming games is about to ease, and allow the team to re-establish its proper equilibrium.

3. This proper equilibrium will be achieved by the posting of a W-L record of either 8-4 or 7-5, over the course of the next 12 games, at which point the approximate half-way mark [i.e. 40 games] of the season will have been reached. 

Given the present state of the team, however …

Is this really an accurate assessment of their current situation?

For each of the last 3 seasons, one of the major areas of difficulty for the Raptors has been managing the expectations placed on the team, in a constructive way, given:

i. The history of the franchise;

ii. Where the franchise wants to go, short and long term [i.e. financially, and in terms of achieving excellence, on and off the court]; and,

iii. How exactly the franchise intends to achieve its stated objectives.

Instead of having negative directional short term goals [like Rob Babcock once had], or blatantly unrealistic short term goals [like much of the fanbase seems to hold, on occasion] … given the team’s history … or simply “swinging for the fences”, repeatedly, whether hit or miss [like Bryan Colangelo & Co. seem to have done, to this point], what the Raptors - and the associated media that follow the team - need to do much better, going forward, is paint a more ACCURATE picture of where exactly the team is, at the moment, relative to the other franchises in the Eastern Conference.

It’s by doing THIS, on a regular basis, rather than looking at the team’s predicament with tinted glasses … whether this tint is ‘positive’ or ‘negative’ … that communication is enhanced, and those whose actual support is necessary to succeed can be made to understand effectively what precisely is expected of them, in a specific situation; and, in return, know what they should then be able to expect back from the person[s] who is [are] communicating with them.

Unlike what many people may choose to think, it is never really about “a glass being either ‘half-full’ or ‘half empty’”, depending on one’s own perspective.

What it is REALLY about, however, is being ACCURATE, or not.

Those who are … over an extended period of time … are, in fact, able to earn the R.E.S.P.E.C.T. of their audience.

Once R.E.S.P.E.C.T. is earned, in this way, then, it can be reciprocated.

Once a state of mutual R.E.S.P.E.C.T. is achieved, in this way … between an audience and a ‘message-provider’ … then, great things are possible … and, indeed, are likely to occur.

However, without being accurate, in the first place, there is little possibility that a state of mutual R.E.S.P.E.C.T. can ever be achieved.

In this specific situation, whether the glass is actually perceived to be “half-empty” or “half-full” becomes completely irrelevant. 

Here is this year’s direct quote from the Raptors’ President/GM:

Raptors makeover will work: Bryan Colangelo
“The scope of the makeover definitely changed from what we originally thought but it wasn’t because we didn’t feel like we should do some of those things,” the president and general manager explained. “It was because we were limited in what we thought we had available to us.”

That all changed after a bold four-team, double sign-and-trade transaction centred on Hedo Turkoglu and Shawn Marion which gave Colangelo the resources to complete a rather remarkable makeover that will be fully unveiled at the team’s annual media day today.

“We’re much better off for it,” said Colangelo. “With all the new faces it’s going to be a challenge … but we really did want to make some changes.

“We’ve accomplished it on paper and now we have to put it all together.”

There’s the rub.

Yes, on paper the Raptors seem vastly improved over the squad that finished last season 33-49.

They have five backups who have been NBA starters and a big starting lineup seemingly more talented than it’s been in years.

But paper isn’t reality; no one can tell what is actually going to transpire during the course of a season.

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There’s the rub?

Here is what he had to say last season, at this exact same time:

On paper … the best team the raptors have had
“On paper, in terms of just pure talent, I would say, yes, this is the best team we’ve had,” the Raptor president and general manager said Monday afternoon.

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On paper?

On paper … means absolutely squat, in the NBA environment.

How a team’s players and coaches fit together, or not, whether they can create individual mismatches which their squad can then take full advantage of, and/or whether they can combine to minimize the match-up advantages which their opponents have based on their respective strengths and weaknesses, etc., are not things which can be assertained with accuracy from looking at a collection of statistical data accounting for “seasonal/career averages” in a plethora of categories ranging from simple to advanced.

Regardless of what the “stats gurus” will try to tell you about “How the game works”, the team that will eventually win the 2009-2010 NBA Championship will not be determined by:

A. How it happens to look on paper;

B. How it happens to perform in a NBA video game;

C. How its players may happen to rank in a NBA Fantasy Hoops contest;

D. etc.

There are 5 teams with a legitimate shot at winning the title this year:

1 LA Lakers [the reigning champions, 65 wins last season]
2 Boston Celtics [the 2007-2008 champions, 62 wins last season]
3 San Antonio Spurs [the 2006-2007 champions, 54 wins last season]
4 Orlando Magic [the reigning finalists, 59 wins last season]
5 Cleveland Cavaliers [the 2006-2007 finalists, 66 wins last season]

based upon:

1 The overall strength of their organization, from top to bottom;
2 The Quality Depth on their roster, specifically designed to create and minimize individual match-up advantages for themselves and their opponents, respectively;
3 Their team’s ability to Rebound & Defend, in general … and, specifically, on certain crucial possessions which decide the final outcome of playoff games;
4 Their collective ability to play Shared Team Offense;
5 Their star players’ abilities to make crucial plays, where necessary, in all three main phases of the game, i.e. Defense, Offense and Rebounding;
6 The quality of their coaching; and,
7 The quality of their GMing.

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Unfortunately, what is now painfully obvious for the Raptors is the lack of an over-riding plan for this organization to ever win a NBA championship while operating under the ownership of MLSE.

Since April 2004, when Glen Grunwald was fired from his position, as GM for the team, the Raptors have been in almost constant state of flux:

2003-2004, Grunwald-O’Neill
33-49/.402, 10th place, missed the playoffs

2004-2005, Babcock-Mitchell
33-49/.402, 11th place, missed the playoffs

2005-2006, Babcock-Mitchell/Colangelo-Mitchell
27-55/.313, 12th place, missed the playoffs

2006-2007, Colangelo-Mitchell
47-35/.573, 3rd place, 1st Rd playoff loss

2007-2008, Colangelo-Mitchell
41-41/.500, 6th place, 1st Rd playoff loss

2008-2009, Colangelo-Mitchell/Colangelo-Triano
33-49/.402, 13th place, missed the playoffs

2009-2010, Colangelo-Triano
?, ?, ? 

Teams “in a constant state of flux” do not know what they are doing when it comes to ever being able to build a championship operation in the NBA … in spite of their own ability to make $$$ hand-over-fist, on an annual basis.

It takes a high degree of Basketball Acumen to actually win the title in this league … and THIS simply isn’t to be found on a piece of paper, or through crunching numbers.

Instead of fluff pieces like this …

The Love is Gone
There’s been a definite backlash against Bosh this past year, partly, we’re sure, out of frustration because their team was so disappointing this past season. It appears that the realization that Bosh is most likely best-suited as a second option on a good team has made him a focus of fans’ ire.

which contain erroneous opinions about a stalwart player like Chris Bosh, more media attention needs to shift focus onto the person who is actually responsible for the team’s precipitous decline in performance over the last few seasons.

The fact is …

* Chris Bosh’s productivity is not what’s declined recently, in Raptorville.

* The quality of Bryan Colangelo’s decision-making has declined during these years:

2005-2006, 14-21/.400, 4th/Atlantic Division, 12th/Eastern Conference
2006-2007, 47-35/.573, 1st/Atlantic Division, 3rd/Eastern Conference
2007-2008, 41-41/.500, 2nd/Atlantic Division, 6th/Eastern Conference
2008-2009, 33-49/.402, 4th/Atlantic Division, 13th/Eastern Conference
Overall, 135-146/.480, Zero ["0"] Playoff Series Victories

2006 List of Transactions
2007 List of Transactions
2008 List of Transactions
2009 List of Transactions

After 3.5 seasons at the Raptors’ helm, it should now be clear for others to see that the few NBA Experts who claimed that MLSE actually hired an “average” GM to run its basketball operation, in the aftermath of dismissing Rob Babcock [i.e. another less-than-stellar GM, in his own right] … if the actual goal was to become a championship calibre team in the not-too-distant future … were, in fact, 100% correct.

None of which is to say that Bryan Colangelo is, either, incompetent or should be fired anytime soon but, rather, only that:

1. Denigrating a player like Chris Bosh is a case of mis-placed, ill-informed blame;

and,

2. The actual Evaluation Spotlight needs to be focused instead on the Leadership of the Organization for failing to do its job properly, up to this point, if the proper steps are going to be taken moving forward.

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The best way to build a championship calibre team in the NBA today remains the same as it has always been:

1. Have one stable owner who is in the game to win championships, not mainly to maximize profits [which should only be viewed as an off-shoot which comes from Winning];

2. Have a General Manager with outstanding Basketball Acumen … and a long term commitment to build a championship calibre organization, with the primary goal of winning the NBA Title, year after year;

3. Have a Head Coach with a specific and comprehensive Approach To Playing The Game which emphasizes the basic fundamentals of [I] Rebounding, [II] Team Offense and [III] Team Defense, in a balanced way … but who can also orchestrate and take advantage of mis-match situations.

4. Have a number of outstanding individual players who [I] buy into the Team Concept, whole-heartedly, [II] with Good Character and [III] a Combination of Individual Strengths which [i] Fit Well Together, [i] Create and Cope with Mis-match Situations, provide [iii] Quality Depth [overall] and, at least, [iv] two or three solid Scorers, a stable Point Guard and a stable Center.

5. Acquire these outstanding players, primarily, through the annual NBA Draft, secondarily, via specific Trades and, thirdly, with select Free Agent signings … while adhering to the Basic Tenets outlined in #1, #2, #3 and #4, listed above.

Organizations which choose to violate these guidelines … although they might win a lot of regular season games, advance through a few rounds of the playoffs, and make a lot of money for their owner[s] along the way … will fail to win the NBA championship, repeatedly.

Basketball is a fantastic game.

In the end … The Ball Don’t Lie.

Araujo pick set off chain reaction
I‘ve always considered the drafting of Rafael Araujo the Raptors’ original sin. It set off a chain reaction the team has never really recovered from.

Araujo, as every Raptors fan knows, was picked No.8 overall by Rob Babcock, who promised on draft night that the big Brazilian was “Not a stiff.”

Well, he was a stiff. One with small hands and short arms and - quite literally - no upside.

Missing at No.8 isn’t ordinarily the end of the world. It happens. And it says A LOT about the NBA that having the chance to pick the eighth - or in this year’s draft - the ninth best player in the world in a given year carries with it no certainty of success.

Tough league.

But the 2004 draft had its share of good players. One of them - Andre Iguodala - was taken ninth by the Philadelphia 76ers, as every Raptors fan knows.

Which is the problem: It’s not so much that Araujo was a bust, it’s that Iguodala represents exactly and - short of Kobe/LeBron/Wade - I mean exactly what the franchise needs.

He slashes. He defends other wings. He’s a one-man fastbreak. He’s a passable spot-up shooter. He’s very good playmaker and passer. He’s relatively affordable, at $12-million a year, which is pretty good value for a Tier 1A wing player in the NBA.

But you know all this.

Still, I’ve been thinking about Iguodala as I’ve [been] watching Mickael Pietrus with the Orlando Magic.

———-

In contrast, what this corner sees is that the specific time-line … i.e. Chain Reaction … for the de-evolution of the Raptors looks like this:

* Fired Glen Grunwald, Apr 1, 2004
* Hired Rob Babcock, Jun 7, 2004
* Drafted Rafael Araujo [No. 8], Jun 24 2004
* Hired Sam Mitchell, Jun 29, 2004
* Traded Vince Carter, Dec 17, 2004 [for exactly what, in return?]
* Fired Babcock, Jan 26, 2006
* Hired Bryan Colangelo, Feb 28, 2006
* Drafted Andrea Bargnani [No. 1], Jun 28, 2006
* Traded Charlie Villanueva for TJ Ford, Jul 1, 2006
* Traded for Carlos Delfino, Jun 15, 2007
* Signed Jason Kapono, Jul 11, 2007
* Traded TJ Ford & Rasho Nesterovic & No. 17 Draft Pick for Jermaine O’Neal & No. 41 Draft Pick, Jun 26, 2008
* Signed Hassan Adams, Jul 8, 2008
* Signed Roko Ukic, Jul 16, 2008
* Signed Will Solomon, Jul 28, 2008
* Bought out Jorge Garbajosa, Aug 10, 2008
* Fired Mitchell, Dec 3, 2008

33-49/.402, 14th place in the Eastern Conference

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April 1, 2004 [and, then, Dec 17] will live-on, in infamy … as a sort of very real, cruel JOKE … in the history of this franchise, purpetrated by Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment [MLSE, i.e. Richard Peddie & Larry Tanenbaum]. 

On Oct 03, this corner of the blogosphere identified for you two key stretches of games this season for the Toronto Raptors:

1. The first 6 on the schedule;
2. The set of 15 from Nov 30 to Dec 27; and,

said the very real possibility exists that this team, with its roster as is, might in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs entirely, despite the fact others [i.e. NBA observers and the team's general fanbase] were considering it to be a “legit contender” for a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals this spring … based, primarily, on their off-season acquisition of a former 6-time League All-Star, Jermaine O’Neal [C].

In addition, a variety of different W-L scenarios were developed that explained just how this possibility might come to fruition this season for the Raptors, a team most NBA observers had put into the up-and-coming category, based on their Atlantic Division Title, 2 seasons ago, and their 2nd consecutive appearance in the EC Playoffs last year.

Key early season games for the Raptors

Should the Raptors happen to lose this evening, to the Cavaliers, in Cleveland, a likely scenario … considering they are +11.5 point underdogs … this would then give the Dinos a rather inauspicious 8-12 [.400] W-L record at the 20-game mark of the regular season schedule [i.e. approximately at the 1/4 pole of the NBA's Playoff Race].

While the Raptors were able to get out to a quick start, winning their first 3 match-ups, they eventually finished that initial stretch of key games with a 4-2 mark. 

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* Indicates game against a plus .500 Opponent
—————————–

That said …

it’s the 2nd stretch of key games … several of which fit into the winnable category [i.e. against less-than-stellar opponents] … that might prove to be the Raptors undoing this season:

Survive this 2nd set of 15 games … under the direction of their new head coach, Jay Triano … for example, with a humble 6-9 W-L record … and the 2008-2009 season remains salvagable for Toronto.

Fail to capitalize on the winnable games in this set, though, and the Raptors might just be better off … from a long term development standpoint … focusing their efforts [under Bryan Colangelo, President/GM] on, How exactly to get into the NBA’s Draft Lottery Again, without really trying to, as they did during the 2005-2006 season, under the direction of their vilified former GM, Rob Babcock.

If this most recent bit of news is, indeed, accurate …

—————————-

Time running out on MLSE’s Peddie

The winds of change are blowing at Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment Ltd., and Richard Peddie soon may be swept out the door.

The change involving Peddie may not necessarily have anything to do with the impending hiring of Brian Burke as president and general manager of the Leafs — maybe as soon as late this week — but it’s likely. And Peddie likely is on his way out at the end of the season.

Peddie has been under fire for failed sporting decisions — primarily the hiring of Rob Babcock and John Ferguson as inexpensive and inexperienced general managers for the Raptors and the Maple Leafs — and has been put on notice with a changing and more aggressive board of directors. And while he has clung to the job on the basis of the financial strength of the company, there are those who look at failed television networks and other problems within MLSEL and figure the time is right for change.

This won’t happen quickly. Peddie has been a marvellous survivor, but time is running out.

THIS AND THAT

Name to know: Erol Uzermeri, the newest board member of MLSEL, and unlike his fellow Teachers’ Pension Plan flag wavers, isn’t happy just to get a parking pass and dinner at the directors’ lounge. He, not chairman Larry Tanenbaum or Peddie, is considered the power broker on the board and not interested in the status quo …

—————————-

then it’s a godsend for the dedicated and beleaguered fanbase of the Maple Leafs and the Raptors.

An unequivical Halleluiah! … should be the Word of the Day, in Raptorville & Leafs’ Nation, if this specific action ever comes to pass, and a coronation ceremony planned for Erol Uzermeri, should he truly be able to clean house at the very top of MLSE.  

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Oh, when will THEY … ever learn?

This is the answer which was given in this space [August 4, 2008]  to the following question:

=============================================

5. Carlos Boozer and Chris Bosh will be fighting for the back-up Center minutes; who should win the job?

This is a silly question.

If Team USA wanted to dominate the international competition this year … the most potent line-up it could put on the floor would see Carlos Boozer at the 4/Power Forward AND Chris Bosh at the 5/Center positions, not ‘fighting for the back-up Center minutes.

For further explanation, see the link provided in the answer to Question #3.

=============================================

that was asked by the good folks at Upside and Motor, in their Team USA Blogger Roundtable [to which this corner had not received an invite ].

10 days later …

Raptors’ Chris Bosh emerging as a leader for the U.S. team: Draws rave reviews from coach, teammates with strong showing on defense

and it is somewhat gratifying to see that one or two others in the basketball community [at-large] have at last begun to ’see’ what this corner has known about this young man [Chris Bosh], as a Center in the NBA, for a VERY LONG TIME …

De-constructing the mystery that is Chris Bosh [April 21, 2008]

It never ceases to amaze what some so-called ‘NBA experts’ think they understand about the game.

In the NBA, Chris Bosh is … and has always been … a Finesse Center/5.

Chris Bosh (6-10, 230, Lefty) is not a Power Forward/4.

Never has been; never will be.

In fact, Chris Bosh is not a Power player, at all.

In the NBA, Chris Bosh has few, if any, ‘Mismatch Advantages’ when he isn’t playing the Center position.

Is Chris Bosh a franchise player?

YES, he is … but not THE kind of player many THINK he is …

nor the kind of player he’s been made to play as, to this point in his pro career, as a Core Member of  the Toronto Raptors, under the Leadership of Rob Babcock & Bryan Colangelo (the team’s General Managers) AND the coaching of Kevin O’Neill & Sam Mitchell.

Chris Bosh’s Strength, as a basketball player, is as a Finesse Center/5 … who is:

1) A terrific Team Defender, in the Middle of the action, in the Lane, where & when he can defend each of the other 4 players on the court … in addition to his own individual check, which he isn’t very good at doing to begin with, as a Finesse, Shot-blocking 5 … in the mold of ‘the Great Bill Russell‘ (6-10, 220, Lefty);

2) A terrific Rebounder, capable of averaging 15+ boards a contest, if made to emphasize this aspect of the game … in the mold of ‘the Great Bill Russell’;

3) A terrific Character Guy, with the Core trait of Un-Selfishness that is shared with the other truly great Centers who have ever played the game … e.g. Men like Miken, (the Great Bill) Russell, Reed, Abdul-Jabbar & Walton (plus, in today’s environment, the ‘Big Fundamental’, Tim Duncan);

4) A solid Mid-Post and Elbow scorer (i.e. within 15-18 feet of the basket) … when he’s matched-up exclusively vs THE opponent’s Big … all of whom he can simply ‘out-quick’, relative to this position on the floor … but which can only be dictated by Bosh’s coach, if said coach plays Bosh as THE Biggest player within his own ‘Group-of-5’ and not the 2nd biggest, who can go into the Post and command an ‘Inside-Out’ double-team, based on his ability to score the ball from this position on the floor … with his FINESSE ‘Face-Up’ game; rather than a ‘power game’ which Chris Bosh simply does not and will NEVER EVER have.

Unfortunately for Chris Bosh, since he was drafted into the NBA by the Toronto Raptors he has yet to play for a GM or a coach who knows what his ACTUAL STRENGTHS are as a pro player, and as a person, in general … and has not yet been developed into the type of dominating ALL-PRO individual he is truly capable of eventually becoming in this League … similar to ‘the Great Bill Russell’.