khandor’s sports blog

According to Justin Kubatko, the creator of basketball-reference.com and the author of the following article for the New York Times …

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Keeping Score: Why the Nuggets are winning

With Wednesday night’s impressive road victory over the Atlanta Hawks, the Denver Nuggets improved to 9-2 since the trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks.

And although most analysts felt the Nuggets received a favorable return in the deal, few expected them to play this well without their star.

A closer look at the team’s numbers with Anthony and without him reveals some significant changes on both ends of the floor.

Perhaps the two biggest criticisms of Anthony while he was in Denver were his propensity to dominate the ball on the offensive end and his effort (or lack thereof) on the defensive end.

Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of plays that a player used while he was on the floor, where a play is defined to be a combination of field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers. If a team distributed its plays equally among all of its players, then each individual would have a usage percentage of 20 percent.

Anthony’s usage percentage in Denver was 32.6 percent, the second-highest rate in the N.B.A. That, coupled with the fact that Anthony averaged 35.5 minutes a game, meant that the Nuggets’ offense was predominantly run through a single player.

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There still seems to be some degree of ”uncertainty” concerning the “unexpectedly” terrific play of the Denver Nuggets, in the aftermath of their recently completed trade with the New York Knicks.

Question

Given the actual quality of the personnel for the present version of the Nuggets, should this really be the case, at all? 

Answer

FWIW …

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[comment from April 8, 2011, 2:17 AM]

Prior to the Melo/Billups trade, Denver was a very talented team that was under-performing in the regular season – compared to the team from 2 years ago – due to a number of different factors, including:

i. Injuries to Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin;

ii. Turmoil surrounding the impending trade of C-Anthony;

iii. George Karl’s on-going recovery from last season’s bout with cancer; and,

iv. The loss of important role/back-up/bit players like Linas Kleiza and Johan Petro.

If this year’s team had been 100% healthy from the start of the season [including George Karl], however … and not immersed in the Melo/Billups trade controversy … then, the Nuggets would have most likely been one of the top 3 teams in the West all year long, based strictly on the strength of their personnel.

THEN …

When Masai Ujiri [GM] was able to extract a “motherload of still-young legitimate NBA level talent” from the Knicks, in exchange for what Denver only had to give up:

TO NEW YORK
C-Anthony + C-Billups + A-Carter + R-Balkman

[Please Note: Shelden Williams was also included in this trade.]

TO DENVER
D-Gallinari + W-Chandler + R-Felton + T-Mozgov + 2 Future 1st Round Draft Picks

[Please Note: The Nuggets only received 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick from New York.]

it should actually NOT come as a surprise, at all, that THIS new version of the Nuggets is a pretty darn good outfit … when you put the newcomers together with the return to good health of Kenyon Martin [close to 90%] and Chris Andersen [close to 80%].

In early February [Please Note: It was actually back in January], well before the trade deadline, I forecast on my blog that the Denver Nuggets would likely be THE MOST IMPROVED TEAM in the NBA after the All-Star Break, if they CHOSE NOT to trade C-Anthony this year.

‘Non Top 4′ team most likely to reach the NBA Finals this season

Given what Denver got back from New York in the Melo/Billups trade, my forecast remains the same today.

Those who think the Nuggets are a prime example of the sum of the parts being greater than the value of the whole are simply ignorant of just how good the following individual players and coaches actually are:

STARTERS
1/Lawson/PG + 2/Afflalo/OG-SF [or Chandler] + 3/Gallinari/SF + 4/Martin/PF + 5/Nene/C

KEY SUBS
6/Felton/PG, 8/Chandler/OG-SF [or Afflalo], 7/Smith/SF-OG, 9/Andersen/PF-C and 10/Harrington/PF-C

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RESERVES
11/Forbes/SF [i.e. as good an 11th man as there is in the NBA] and 12/Mozgov/C [i.e. as good a 12th man as there is in the NBA]

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EXTRAS/OUTS
Ely/PF-C [i.e. as good a 13th man as there is in the NBA] and Koufos/C [i.e. as good a 14th man as there is in the NBA]

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HEAD COACH
Karl [i.e. as good a Head Coach as there is in the NBA, today, other than Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich]

because of an over-reliance on simplistic “statistical-based pseudo basketball analysis”.

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Enjoy!

PS. Afterall, it’s Masters Week, again! … and, the unoffical start of Spring!

Related:

Knicks, Nuggets and Timberwolves complete ‘blockbuster’ trade

Nuggets, Melo, Billups & Co. should be making legit bid to win Denver’s first NBA title

Prior to completing their recent trade for Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Renaldo Balkman and Anthony Carter, the New York Knicks were 28-26/.519 and in 6th place in the Eastern Conference Standings.

Q1. How have the Knicks performed since making that trade?

A1.

In a way that has actually been fairly consistent with what was first said here … back on Tuesday, February 22, 2010 … would most likely be the case.

As Donnie Walsh/GM and Mike D’Antoni/HC continue to fill-in places on New York’s roster, it will be most interesting to see if this changes significantly, during the remainder of the regular season schedule and into the playoffs.

If the New York Knicks were indeed forced to include each of the following assets in their just-completed trade for Carmelo Anthony:

1. Raymond Felton/PG;
2. Danilo Gallinari/SF-PF;
3. Wilson Chandler/OG-SF;
4. Timofey Mozgov/C;
5. Anthony Randolph/SF-PF [sent to Minnesota];
6. Eddy Curry/C [sent to Minnesota];
7. 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick [2014]; and,
8. 2 Future 2nd Round Draft Picks [obtained from Golden State in exchange for David Lee last summer]; 

then, it was certainly a hefty price to pay for the “opportunity” to field the following line-up the remainder of this season:

STARTERS
1 Chauncey Billups, PG
2 Landry Fields, OG
3 Carmelo Anthony, SF
4 Ronny Turiaf, PF
5 Amare Stoudemire, C

BACK-UPS
6 Tony Douglas, PG
7 Andy Rautins, PG-OG
8 Roger Mason, PG-OG
9 Kelenna Azubuike, OG-SF
10 Bill Walker, OG-SF
11 Shawne Williams, SF-PF
12 Renaldo Blackman, PF
13 Shelden Williams, PF

and “the possibility” of adding a player like Chris Paul, as well, somewhere down-the-road.

If Denver and Minnesota do actually decide to keep each of the players obtained by their respective teams in this reported transaction:

then, it may well be the case that:

1. New York has obtained the best player involved in these trades, but may still have failed to appreciably advance their franchise, in pursuit of winning a League Championship;

2. Denver may have obtained as close to “fair value”, as possible, in exchange for their disgruntled former “star” player who did not wish to sign a contract extension with their team;

and,

3. Minnesota may have made out like bandits, by acquiring 2 solid assets for their franchise, in exchange for only 1 ”spare part” on their current roster.

Time will tell if this transaction actually marks the end of Donnie Walsh’s tenure with the Knicks or, if it ushers in an era of renewed long term prosperity for the once-proud franchise, under the continued direction of its aging native son. 

Toronto Raptors 112
DENVER NUGGETS 130
Tue Nov 17 2009 – Game Scoreboard

With both Hedo Turkoglu [SF, 6-10, 220] and Reggie Evans [PF, 6-8, 245] out of the line-up, the Raptors were “physically” over-matched vs the Nuggets in last night’s game.

ASSESSING INDIVIDUAL MATCH-UPS BASED ON SIZE, STRENGTH, AGILITY AND EXPLOSIVE QUICKNESS

Defensively, from Denver’s perspective

Nene * [6-11, 250, i.e. size and agility] is a terrific check vs Chris Bosh [6-10, 230], anytime that CB4 does not step-off from the block. 

Kenyon Martin * [6-9, 240, i.e. size, strength, agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs Andrea Bargnani [7-0, 250]. Period.

The combination of Nene and K-Mart is a terrific pairing vs CB4 and Bargnani … since: [i] Andrea is a perimeter Center who cannot take Kenyon into the low-post to do damage, and [ii] whenever CB4 steps out to the perimeter it then leaves Toronto with ZERO low-post game.

Chris Andersen * [6-10, 228, i.e. agility and explosive quickness] is a terrific check vs either [a] Amir Johnson * [6-9, 210] or [b] Rasho Nesterovic [7-0, 255.

Arron Afflalo * [6-5, 215, i.e. strength and agility] is a solid check vs DeMar DeRozan * [6-7, 220].

Defensively, from Toronto’s Perspective

Carmelo Anthony * [6-8, 230, i.e. size, strength and agility] is a nightmare for the Raptors. Period.

Chauncey Billups * [6-3, 202, i.e. strength] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

JR [Earl] Smith * [6-6, 220] i.e. expolosive quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors, when they try to go with Marco Belinelli [6-5, 200, i.e. less strength and less quickness; more offensive skill] instead of Sonny Weems * [6-6, 203, i.e. as much strength and quickness; less offensive skill].

Ty Lawson * [5-11, 195, i.e. quickness] is a difficult check for the Raptors. Period.

Physically, Denver is a superior team to Toronto and simply worn down the Raptors’ best players in the 2nd [36-35/+1], 3rd [33-25/+8] and 4th [33-23/+10] quarters.

There’s no magic answer when these two teams play.

Last night:

Denver generated 105 offensive possessions [with just 3 O-Rebs].
Toronto generated 117 offensive possessions [with 19 O-Rebs].

Denver shot 61.5 [FG%].
Toronto shot 46.2 [FG%].

Denver generated 68 points in the paint.
Toronto generated 34 points in the paint.

Denver scored points at a rate of 1.238 per possession.
Toronto scored points at a rate of 0.957 per possession.

When a team like Toronto [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return] plays a team like Denver [which scores alot of points per game and yields alot of points per game, in return ... but, also has physically gifted players [*] at several positions] then Toronto is going to end up on the short end of the scoreboard a majority of the time.

When Toronto has faced a Quality Opponent [.500+] this season which has not:

i. Been in the 2nd half of a back-2-back; or,
ii. Made the mistake of playing their 2 hulking centers together vs the combo of Bosh and Bargnani;

the Dinos have performed in the following way:

In general, teams that surrender more than 1.0 points per possession, vs a specific set of opponents, while scoring fewer than 1.0 points per possession themselves, have too many players who are “physically” inferior to their individual counterparts when matched-up with those teams.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 11 – at Denver [Tue Nov 17]

At Denver last season [Dec 03 2008] is where things turned ugly for the Raptors, when Sam Mitchell was fired following a lopsided loss. This season’s Nuggets should prove to be too much for the Dinos, as well, with several individual match-up advantages. Although not as deep as last season’s team, Denver should still be one of the better squads in the WC this year, if their key players can remain healthy.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 4-7

Denver jumped over several teams in the Western Conference last season, adding Chauncey Billups to their line-up.

Their challenge this summer was to resign Chris Anderson and then keep the bulk of their team together … thereby, allowing this existing group of players to grow, as a unit … which they have now done for the most part.

i.e. Nuggets re-sign Johan Petro

When you take an Early look at NBA rosters: Western Conference, and:

* Remove the question mark beside Johan Petro’s name, then,
* Remove Linas Kleiza’s name altogether

what you should see is a depth chart which looks like this:

PG: Billups/#2, Carter/#7, Lawson/#11 
OG: Smith/#4, Afflalo/#8, Carter
SF: Anthony/#1, Player #10?
PF: Martin/#5, Balkman/#9, Allen/#13
C: Nene/#3, Anderson/#6, Petro/#12

and still leaves room for one more player to be signed, before the season starts, as a competent back-up for their “superstar” [i.e. Melo], at the SF position.

If Mark Warkentien, Rex Chapman & Co. are able to accomplish this last task, there is now every reason to believe that the Nuggets will remain one of the elite teams in the Western Conference this season.

Current Odds To Win the Series
Denver Nuggets +231
LOS ANGELES LAKERS -251

Although Denver has played very well to this point in the Playoffs, they do not enjoy a host of different match-up advantages vs Los Angeles, like they did vs Dallas and New Orleans.

In particular, the specific spots where the Nuggets have possessed major advantages … i.e. at the PG [although that might be difficult for CP3 lovers to believe] and PF/C positions, plus in terms Quality Depth, overall … will not be the case in this series:

Point Guard

* Billups’ game is based on strength, not quickness. Whereas Aaron Brooks was too quick for Derek Fisher … physical strength & guile just happen to be two strengths of D-Fish, as well.

* Anthony Carter is a highly capable Back-up PG. The combination of Jordan Farmar & Shannon Brown is equally formidable.

Power Forward/Center

* Nene, Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson & Johan Petro is a versatile and highly effective set of Bigs. So, too, however, is Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom & Josh Powell.  

Quality Depth

* JR Smith, Anderson, Carter, Linas Kleiza, Petro, Jason Hart & Renaldo Balkman are a stout and highly serviceable Group of 7, coming off the bench. However, they are not a superior force, in comparison with the Lakers’ corresponding re-inforcements, i.e. Sasha Vujacic, Odom, Farmar, Luke Walton, Powell, Brown & DJ Mbenga.  

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Please Note:
At the moment, the Lakers are +220 to Win the 2008-2009 NBA Title. For those so inclined, this is a VERY GOOD proposition.