khandor’s sports blog

According to Justin Kubatko, the creator of basketball-reference.com and the author of the following article for the New York Times …

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Keeping Score: Why the Nuggets are winning

With Wednesday night’s impressive road victory over the Atlanta Hawks, the Denver Nuggets improved to 9-2 since the trade that sent Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks.

And although most analysts felt the Nuggets received a favorable return in the deal, few expected them to play this well without their star.

A closer look at the team’s numbers with Anthony and without him reveals some significant changes on both ends of the floor.

Perhaps the two biggest criticisms of Anthony while he was in Denver were his propensity to dominate the ball on the offensive end and his effort (or lack thereof) on the defensive end.

Usage percentage is an estimate of the percentage of plays that a player used while he was on the floor, where a play is defined to be a combination of field goal attempts, free throw attempts and turnovers. If a team distributed its plays equally among all of its players, then each individual would have a usage percentage of 20 percent.

Anthony’s usage percentage in Denver was 32.6 percent, the second-highest rate in the N.B.A. That, coupled with the fact that Anthony averaged 35.5 minutes a game, meant that the Nuggets’ offense was predominantly run through a single player.

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There still seems to be some degree of ”uncertainty” concerning the “unexpectedly” terrific play of the Denver Nuggets, in the aftermath of their recently completed trade with the New York Knicks.

Question

Given the actual quality of the personnel for the present version of the Nuggets, should this really be the case, at all? 

Answer

FWIW …

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[comment from April 8, 2011, 2:17 AM]

Prior to the Melo/Billups trade, Denver was a very talented team that was under-performing in the regular season – compared to the team from 2 years ago – due to a number of different factors, including:

i. Injuries to Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin;

ii. Turmoil surrounding the impending trade of C-Anthony;

iii. George Karl’s on-going recovery from last season’s bout with cancer; and,

iv. The loss of important role/back-up/bit players like Linas Kleiza and Johan Petro.

If this year’s team had been 100% healthy from the start of the season [including George Karl], however … and not immersed in the Melo/Billups trade controversy … then, the Nuggets would have most likely been one of the top 3 teams in the West all year long, based strictly on the strength of their personnel.

THEN …

When Masai Ujiri [GM] was able to extract a “motherload of still-young legitimate NBA level talent” from the Knicks, in exchange for what Denver only had to give up:

TO NEW YORK
C-Anthony + C-Billups + A-Carter + R-Balkman

[Please Note: Shelden Williams was also included in this trade.]

TO DENVER
D-Gallinari + W-Chandler + R-Felton + T-Mozgov + 2 Future 1st Round Draft Picks

[Please Note: The Nuggets only received 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick from New York.]

it should actually NOT come as a surprise, at all, that THIS new version of the Nuggets is a pretty darn good outfit … when you put the newcomers together with the return to good health of Kenyon Martin [close to 90%] and Chris Andersen [close to 80%].

In early February [Please Note: It was actually back in January], well before the trade deadline, I forecast on my blog that the Denver Nuggets would likely be THE MOST IMPROVED TEAM in the NBA after the All-Star Break, if they CHOSE NOT to trade C-Anthony this year.

‘Non Top 4′ team most likely to reach the NBA Finals this season

Given what Denver got back from New York in the Melo/Billups trade, my forecast remains the same today.

Those who think the Nuggets are a prime example of the sum of the parts being greater than the value of the whole are simply ignorant of just how good the following individual players and coaches actually are:

STARTERS
1/Lawson/PG + 2/Afflalo/OG-SF [or Chandler] + 3/Gallinari/SF + 4/Martin/PF + 5/Nene/C

KEY SUBS
6/Felton/PG, 8/Chandler/OG-SF [or Afflalo], 7/Smith/SF-OG, 9/Andersen/PF-C and 10/Harrington/PF-C

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RESERVES
11/Forbes/SF [i.e. as good an 11th man as there is in the NBA] and 12/Mozgov/C [i.e. as good a 12th man as there is in the NBA]

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EXTRAS/OUTS
Ely/PF-C [i.e. as good a 13th man as there is in the NBA] and Koufos/C [i.e. as good a 14th man as there is in the NBA]

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HEAD COACH
Karl [i.e. as good a Head Coach as there is in the NBA, today, other than Phil Jackson and Gregg Popovich]

because of an over-reliance on simplistic “statistical-based pseudo basketball analysis”.

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Enjoy!

PS. Afterall, it’s Masters Week, again! … and, the unoffical start of Spring!

Related:

Knicks, Nuggets and Timberwolves complete ‘blockbuster’ trade

Nuggets, Melo, Billups & Co. should be making legit bid to win Denver’s first NBA title

If the New York Knicks were indeed forced to include each of the following assets in their just-completed trade for Carmelo Anthony:

1. Raymond Felton/PG;
2. Danilo Gallinari/SF-PF;
3. Wilson Chandler/OG-SF;
4. Timofey Mozgov/C;
5. Anthony Randolph/SF-PF [sent to Minnesota];
6. Eddy Curry/C [sent to Minnesota];
7. 1 Future 1st Round Draft Pick [2014]; and,
8. 2 Future 2nd Round Draft Picks [obtained from Golden State in exchange for David Lee last summer]; 

then, it was certainly a hefty price to pay for the “opportunity” to field the following line-up the remainder of this season:

STARTERS
1 Chauncey Billups, PG
2 Landry Fields, OG
3 Carmelo Anthony, SF
4 Ronny Turiaf, PF
5 Amare Stoudemire, C

BACK-UPS
6 Tony Douglas, PG
7 Andy Rautins, PG-OG
8 Roger Mason, PG-OG
9 Kelenna Azubuike, OG-SF
10 Bill Walker, OG-SF
11 Shawne Williams, SF-PF
12 Renaldo Blackman, PF
13 Shelden Williams, PF

and “the possibility” of adding a player like Chris Paul, as well, somewhere down-the-road.

If Denver and Minnesota do actually decide to keep each of the players obtained by their respective teams in this reported transaction:

then, it may well be the case that:

1. New York has obtained the best player involved in these trades, but may still have failed to appreciably advance their franchise, in pursuit of winning a League Championship;

2. Denver may have obtained as close to “fair value”, as possible, in exchange for their disgruntled former “star” player who did not wish to sign a contract extension with their team;

and,

3. Minnesota may have made out like bandits, by acquiring 2 solid assets for their franchise, in exchange for only 1 ”spare part” on their current roster.

Time will tell if this transaction actually marks the end of Donnie Walsh’s tenure with the Knicks or, if it ushers in an era of renewed long term prosperity for the once-proud franchise, under the continued direction of its aging native son. 

When you read the following series of quotes from Larry Brown:

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Jordan’s Bobcats stumbling out of the gate

“What I heard Michael say is basically what we’ve been talking about, but obviously when he says something we all should listen. I’m to a point now that I’m going to play the guys that do it because the results would probably be the same. I’ve got to start playing the guys that do what we ask.”

“Whoever we have, we have and to say it’s D.J.’s problem, that’s not going to get anything accomplished. The only way if you maybe have some deficiencies is you play harder, you compete harder, you execute better.”

“Our second team kicks our first team in practice. What does that tell you?”

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you get a sense that this evening’s game against the Raptors [9-15] might be a turning point for the Bobcats [8-13] this season, whichever way it goes.

If Charlotte is forced to use a line-up which looks like this:

which is what they used in their preceding loss against the Celtics … 

then there’s a very good chance the Bobcats will slip to 6 games below .500 with another L this evening [i.e. 8-14] … unless, of course, Larry Brown can substantially out-manouevre Jay Triano, in terms of in-game strategy & tactics.

OTOH …

If Charlotte is able to field a line-up which looks like this:

then, there’s a fairly good chance the Bobcats will be able to stabilize their play this evening, get a much needed W against the under-manned Raptors, and remain in the hunt for a lower tier playoff spot for the balance of the season.

Despite losing several key contributors from last year’s team [e.g. Raymond Felton, PG; Tyson Chandler, C; and, Theo Ratliff, PF-C] … in an effort to save on player salaries … the Bobcats still have an opportunity to develop into a “competitive” squad this year, if they can get healthy and Coach Brown can begin to put his puzzle pieces together properly.

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Published Wagering Line

Opening: CHARLOTTE -4.5/-110

Current: CHARLOTE -5/-108 [as of 11:30 AM today]

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KSS Prognostication

No call … given the plethora of injuries, and other uncertainties, in place for this game, there’s no way to forecast its outcome with any degree of accuracy.

According to Tim Povtak, a senior writer at NBA Fanhouse …

Aging Theo Ratliff Has Sparked Bobcats’ Playoff Rise

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However …

If you take a closer look at the individual Game Logs for 3 specific players on the Bobcats’ current roster [shown below]:

Theo Ratliff’s Game Log This Season For Charlotte, since Feb 19

Tyrus Thomas’ Game Log This Season For Charlotte, since Feb 19

Tyson Chandler’s Game Logs This Season for Charlotte, since Feb 19 

you should be able to see clearly that the team’s recently improved performance has actually coincided with the return to good health of Tyson Chandler [i.e. Charlotte's Back-up Center] and the gradual integration of Tyrus Thomas [i.e. Charlotte's Back-up Power Forward] into their primary rotation, as much as [or, perhaps, even more than] the role and production of Theo Ratliff, as their Starting Center.

When a team like Charlotte finally turns the corner and morphs into a legitimate playoff contender it is rarely the case that there is only 1 player responsible for this actual transformation.

The simple fact is …

Charlotte has been engaged in the process of a long term build-up over the course of the past 2 years, given the additions of:

Larry Brown, Head Coach

DJ Augustin, PG [acquired via the Draft]
Alexis Ajinca, C [acquired via the Draft]
Boris Diaw, PF-SF [acquired via trade]
DeSagana Diop, C [acquired via trade]
Gerald Henderson, OG [acquired via the Draft]
Derrick Brown, PF-SF [acquired via the Draft]
Tyson Chandler, C [acquired via trade]
Stephen Graham, SF-OG [acquired as an UFA]
Stephen Jackson, OG-SF [acquired via trade]
Tyrus Thomas, PF-SF [acquired via trade]
Theo Ratliff, C [acquired via trade]
Larry Hughes, G-F [acquired as an UFA]

and,

Michael Jordan, Principal Owner,

in conjunction with the decision to retain the services of:

Gerald Wallace, SF-PF
Raymon Felton, PG
Nazr Mohammed, C

… and, the single individual most responsible for their success today is their once much-maligned General Manager, Rod Higgins.

Related:

Kudos to the Bobcats for resurrecting their once morbid franchise 

5 Men On A Single String … Kudos to Larry Brown

During Wednesday’s television broadcast of the Orlando/Toronto game, Jack Armstrong, Toronto’s analyst, made the following observation about the perceived talent level for this year’s Raptors team:  

Then, on Thursday evening , during the FAN590′s ”Hoops” broadcast, Eric Smith, Toronto’s radio analyst, tried to re-iterated this same point of view, when a caller suggested that the Charlotte Bobcats should actually be considered as “a better team with more NBA talent than the Raptors” … along with, at least, 4 other teams in the Estern Conference, i.e. Boston, Orlando, Cleveland and Atlanta.

After hearing Eric’s response to that caller, this is the exact comment [including errors] which was submitted by yours truly to his FAN590 blog, The Rap, on Friday, Dec 18 2009, at 2:17 PM:

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Hi, Eric.

I heard you on speak with a caller on last night’s show, just prior to 8:00 PM, concerning your belief that the Raptors [11-17/.393] are a better team than the Bobcats [10-14/.417]. According to what you said, your opinion was based on conversations you have had with various NBA insiders who you have encountered across the league and what their impression of Toronto and Charlotte has been to this point in the season.

Respectfully, it is my contention that you … and these NBA insiders who you happened to have communicated with regarding the relative strength of these two teams … happen to be incorrect in this assessment, and will eventually be proven wrong are the season plays itself out.

After starting the season poorly, without Stephen Jackson on their roster, the Bobcats have begun to climb up the standings in the Eastern Conference, and are now ahead of the Raptors. Although the Raptors [#4] have played a more difficult schedule than the Bobcats [#15], to this point, IMO, Charlotte has more “NBA talent” on its current roster, and should probably be expected to close out the current season by finishing ahead of Toronto in the final standings.

Calderon [+1] > Felton
DeRozan < Jackson [+1]
Turkoglu < Wallace [+2]
Bosh [+2] > Diaw
Bargnani < Chandler [+3]
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Jack = Augustin
Belinelli < Henderson [+4]
Wright < Brown [+5]
Johnson = Mohammed
Nesterovic [+3] > Diop
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Banks < Murray [+6]
Seems [+4] > Law
 Mensah-Bonsu = Graham
Evans [+5] ?
O’Bryant = Ajinca
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Triano < Brown [+7]

PS. Hopefully, the fanbase should now be able to see that we’ve been saying for a while now, re: Jose Calderon’s relative lack of individual defensive prowess not being the major catalyst for the team’s many short-comings on that side of the ball, has been a highly accurate assessment.

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As you can clearly see there are several typos and what appear to be “publication errors” contained in that specific comment, which was submitted rather hurriedly and is still awaiting moderation/publication at The Rap.

In an effort to clear up any mis-understanding which Eric Smith - or other visitors to his blog – might have … 

Here is a more “in-depth” analysis of the rosters for the Raptors and the Bobcats, with a few adjustments to the initial ratings that more accurately reflect the current state of affairs with these two teams, from the perspective of this coner:

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Visitors here are invited to elaborate further on their own answer to this question in the comments section.

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The defensive system of an elite level basketball team is based on the execution of Rules and/or Concepts which are created by a team’s coaching staff to cover each situation which might occur during that team’s season; Rules and/or Concepts with which a casual [or, even, a die-hard] fan might not be familiar with already.

During this specific sequence:

Chris Bosh is X5, checking Tyson Chandler [C/O5].
Andrea Bargnani is X4, checking Boris Diaw [PF/O4].
Hedo Turkoglu is X3, checking Gerald Wallace [SF/O3]. 
DeMar DeRozan is X2, checking Stephen Jackson [OG/O2].
Jose Calderon is X1, checking Raymond Felton [PG/O1].

WHEN O1 MADE THE INITIAL LOW-POST ENTRY PASS TO O2 [RIGHT BLOCK] AND LAKER CUT TO THE WEAK SIDE OF THE FLOOR:

X1 was responsible for denying the Pass-back to O1 [as he cut through the lane to weak side of the floor [which is exactly what X1 did]. Once O1 got to the weak side, X1 was responsible for: i. Being outside of the lane on the weak side [to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation]; and, ii. Releasing Off his individual check [O1] to Zone Up against whichever opponents [i.e. 1, 2 or 2+] were located on the perimeter of the weak side.

X2 was responsible for defending against O2 in a 1-v-1 situation.

X3 was responsible for: i. Being outside of the lane on the weak side of the floor [to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation]; and, ii. Releasing Off his individual check [i.e. O3] to Zone Up against whichever opponents [i.e. 1, 2 or 2+] were located on the perimeter of the weak side.

X4 was responsible for: i. Being outside of the lane above the Free Throw Line [to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation]; and, ii. Releasing Off his individual check [i.e. O4] to Zone Up against whichever opponents [i.e. 1, 2 or 2+] were located on the perimeter above the Free Throw Line Extended [either on the weak or the strong side of the floor].

X5 was responsible for defending against O5 [located at the ball side elbow] in a 1-v-1 situation.

SPECIFIC RULES FOR O2 vs X2 POST-UP SITUATIONS vs MAN-2-MAN D

Since X2 is a frail 1st year player [20 yrs of age] who cannot defend successfully vs O2′s post-ups … based on a lack of guile and physical strength … X4 was responsible for Covering Down on the ball-handler to get the ball out of O2′s hands [in an effort to avoid the 1-v-1 isolation vs X2]. In general, there are three different techniques which a team can use to execute this specific Cover Down with X4, after the Post Entry Pass has already been made: I. Immediately, On The Initial Catch; II. Delayed, On The 1st Dribble; and, III. Late, on the 2+ Dribble. In this instance, the Raptors chose not to Cover Down Immediately, but to execute either Option II or III … which one exactly is unclear, given the physical movement of X4. All that’s known for certain is that X4 did not execute Option I.

AS X4 PREPARED TO INITIATE HIS COVER DOWN [either Option II or III vs O2]

X3 was responsible for Stepping-up Above The Free Throw Line Extended in order to maintain a Zoned Up position vs O4 [who moved above the Three Point Line] on the weak side of the floor [i.e. in order to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation].  

X1 was responsible for maintaining a Zoned Up position vs O1 [weak side FTLX] and O3 [weak side Corner].

X5 was responsble for: i. Denying an interior pass to O5 [who had cut to the weak side Block]; ii. Being within a step of O5 on the weak side of the floor [in order to avoid an Illegal Defense Violation], iii. Providing Help against a baseline drive by O2.

THE PASS FROM O2 TO O3 HAPPENED WHEN:

1. X4 shifted to the Left Elbow and waited for O2 to take his 1st dribble … which never came … in order to initiate Option I or II in his Cover Down vs O2.

2. X3 failed to communicate with X1 and X5 that he [i.e. X3] was Stepping-Up to defend the area of the floor above the Free Throw Line [i.e. where O4 was positioned] in unison with X4′s Cover Down; and,

3. X1 and X5 failed to: i. Recognize that X3 was Stepping-Up to defend that specific area of the floor and was no longer responsible for being Zoned Up on the weak side of the floor [i.e. vs O3 and O1]; and, then, ii. React quickly to the baseline basket cut which was beautifully executed by O3.  

SPECIFIC RULES FOR O2 vs X2 POST-UP SITUATIONS vs ZONE D

If the Raptors had shifted into their Zone Defense vs O2′s post-up, then their players would have been located in the following positions [in a 2-3 Zone]:

X2 – Left Baseline Defender … checking O2, in a 1-v-1 situation

X4 – Left Top Defender … at the Left Defensive Elbow

X1 – Right Top Defender … at the Right Elbow

X3 - Right Baseline Defender … at the Right Block

X5 – Middle Defender … at the Left Block

Since, X1 [i.e. Jose Calderon] did NOT step-up to the Right Elbow position and, instead, X3 Stepped-up to defend against X4, this indicates that the Raptors had not shifted into their Zone Defensive alignment during this sequence but were responsible for moving and reacting to O2′s post-up within the parameters of their Specific Man-2-Man Cover Down Rules.

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PS. Follow-up queries are welcome in the comments section.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 16 – at Charlotte [Wed Nov 25]

This is a back-2-back game for the Raptors. Although these two line-ups are relatively equivalent, in terms of individual match-up advantages, the additional experience which Raja Bell and Larry Brown have, in comparison with DeMar DeRozan and Jay Triano, respectively, gives Charlotte an edge which should be enough to secure a W in a close game.

Expect the Bobcats to be one of several improved teams in the EC this year battling for a lower tier playoff spot with the Raptors.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 6-10

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PS. This contest holds a high degree of interest, due to the presence of rookies DeMar DeRozan [No. 9/1st Rd, USC, OG-SF], Gerald Henderson [No. 12/1st Rd, Duke, OG-SF] and Derrick Brown [No. 40/2nd Rd, Xavier, PF-SF]. Brown, in particular, was a relatively unheralded player in this year’s NBA Draft who yours truly would have liked to see the Raptors trade down to obtain … in addition to receiving other assets, in exchange for the No. 9 [overall] Selection. Although it is still very early in the process, all three players seem to be acquitting themselves nicely in the NBA.

There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:

Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.

In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.

So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.

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By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]

OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]

SMALL FORWARDS
* None

POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]

CENTERS
* Johan Petro [#4]

“How to turn around the fortunes of your pro sports team”, NBA 101 Management Handbook, p. 23.

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Make a legitimate run for the 8th playoff spot in the 2008-2009 season

Add Vladimir Radmanovic [Lakers] in exchange for Adam Morrison

Add DeSagana Diop [Mavs] in exchange for Ryan Hollins & Matt Carroll

Decide NOT to trade Raymond Felton [PG]

Add Raja Bell and Boris Diaw and Sean Singletary [Suns] in exchange for J-Rich & J-Dudley

Add Juwon Howard [as a veteran Big off the bench] from the scrap heap

Decide NOT to trade Sean May AND to sit him on the bench  

Add Cartier Martin [OG/SF] and Dontell Jefferson [OG] from the pool of undrafted players

Add DJ Augustin [as a solid PG] from the 2008 NBA Draft

Add Alexis Ajinca [as a long term project, C] from the 2008 NBA Draft

Decide NOT to trade Gerald Wallace [SF/PF]

Hire Larry Brown to coach your team AND empower him to make trades

Retain Nazr Mohammed [as a solid veteran Big off the bench]

Re-sign Emeka Okafor, your 2004 No. 2 [overall] Draft Pick, as an emotionally stable, hard-working Center, who can Rebound & Defend his position, when others suggested that he was a “bad” long term investment for your team

Hire the most reknowned former player in NBA history to oversee the operation of your franchise [i.e. you know who]

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It’s not rocket science … and, your GM certainly doesn’t NEED to have been named a winner of the NBA’s Executive of the Year Award even one time, during his career to-date.