khandor’s sports blog

Toronto is currently in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division, and in 5th place [overall] in the Eastern Conference standings, with a 26-23/.531 W-L record.

After starting out 7-13/.350, with a difficult road-heavy schedule, the Raptors have since played 19-10/.655 basketball, with an easier predominently home-based schedule, that has effectively balanced out their season to-date.

If the Raptors can now manage to play .531 basketball for the remainder of the campaign they will finish with an overall mark of 43-39, or 44-38, which should then be good enough to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs and earn a mid-level seed [i.e. #5 or #6].

In a 1st Round playoff series of this type the Raptors would then be most likely to face one of:

1. The Atlanta Hawks/#4, who were eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers [i.e. 2006-2007 NBA Finalists] last season [in the 2nd Round] and the Boston Celtics 2 seasons ago [in Game 7 of the 1st Round];

2. The Boston Celtics/#3, who were 2007-2008 NBA Champions; or,

3. The Orlando Magic/#2, who were 2008-2009 NBA Finalists;

each of which is a team with more experience than Toronto, having qualified for the post-season elimination tournament for the last two seasons.

If the Raptors are indeed able to compete successfully in this type of series … by winning at least 2 [or, possibly, 3] games … the challenge they would then face, in the off season, is trying to re-sign their best player, Chris Bosh, who is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent this summer [July 1, 2010].

The NBA’s in-season trade deadline is now two weeks away [Feb 19], and the most important question on the minds of Raptors fans is:

QUESTION

Should Toronto make a trade, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to further improve their team right now, in hopes of being able to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring and, in the process, demonstrate to Chris Bosh that he will have a legitimate chance to compete for a league championship, in the immediate future, if he decides to renew his contract with the Raptors this off season, as a maximum salaried player? 

ANSWER

No, the Raptors should not make a trade of this sort, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring.

RATIONALE

Young teams like the Raptors need to be able to grow together, gradually, over an extended period of years, which involves taking 5 DISTINCT STEPS:

STEP 1. Learning how to make the playoffs, and then losing a 1st Round series;

STEP 2. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, advancing to the 2nd Round;

STEP 3. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making a key player acquisition, advancing to the Conference Finals;

STEP 4. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making another key player acquisition, advancing to the NBA Finals; and,

STEP 5. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, winning the NBA Championship. 

The Raptors’ current roster looks like this:

and is ”good enough”, as is, to compete successfully in a 1st Round playoff series this spring, if their GM and head coach can [i] create the proper atmosphere around their team, and [ii] use their resources effectively.

Stability is what the Raptors need most right now … and, to be able to find out exactly what they’ve got from their current group of players, when it comes to being battle-tested in a 1st Round playoff series against a veteran team like the Hawks, or the Celtics, or the Magic. 

What the Raptors do not need right now is increased Instability … in hopes of blithely skipping over Step 1 with this specific collection of players.

If Chris Bosh is actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.

If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to resign with Toronto, the Raptors will then be in a “good” position to attempt to take Step 2 next year, after making minor player acquisitions during this coming off season. 

3. If Chris Bosh is not actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is not the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.

If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to sign with another team, then, the Raptors will still be in an “okay” position … i.e. with his vacant salary slot … to once again try to accomplish Step 1, in the gradual process of building a legitimate contending team in this league, over a number of years.

The major problem with this specific scenario is that this is precisely where the team has been before, on more than one occasion, during the Raptors’ first 15 years of existence:

A. With Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady;

B. With Vince Carter and Chris Bosh;

C. With Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani;

and, subsequently,

D. With Andrea Bargnani and DeMar DeRozan; etc., etc., etc.

Each time the Raptors have gotten to this same point before …

they have somehow managed to !@#$%^&* it up, royally, by trying to ”Swing for the fences”, prematurely, and in hopes of skipping Steps along the way.

Hopefully they [i.e. MLSE, Bryan Colangelo, and Jay Triano] have finally learned their lesson and, this time, are finally able to exercise the type of sound basketball judgment it takes to eventually build a legitimate NBA championship contending team in Toronto.

——————————

For the Raptors …

It is time to batten down the hatches.

Let the current season play out.

Allow Chris Bosh to make his own call.

And, sail the ship forward, regardless, on a straight [and well-charted] course. 

In this world, it takes time, to build something truly worthwhile.

For the benefit of both Raptors and Heat fans:

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a highly entertaining game.

PS. Is there any doubt, however, that the Heat have the “coolest” [baby, baby, baby] roster web page in the NBA today?

For the benefit of both Raptors and Bucks fans:

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a very entertaining and close game.

Sometimes, and despite the best of intentions, what a person thinks s/he is seeing happen in a specific basketball game isn’t actually what is really [truly] happening at all.

—————————

Raptor duo saying all the right things: Calderon and Jack content with their roles in point guard rotation, have faith in Triano

It has been common practice that Calderon and Jack have been, and will continue to be, on the floor down the stretch in tight games.

And Triano said Tuesday they will be joined by Hedo Turkoglu in some kind of three-headed point guard monster the coach likes to unleash.

“I like having three ball-handlers and they can all shoot the ball as well,” Triano said of his finishing group that also includes Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani.

“I don’t mind that. I don’t think it’s something we want to do on a steady basis throughout most of a game, but to finish games I want guys on the floor who can make free throws when we have a lead and who can make plays for each other and who can make shots.”

—————————

As long as the Raptors’ head coach insists on using the following Five-Man Unit:

Jose Calderon, PG
Jarrett Jack, PG 
Hedo Turkoglu, SF
Chris Bosh, PF
Andrea Bargnani, C

for important stretches … either, at the end of games, or at key points earlier in the match-up… the Raptors are going to continue to perform below their current Capacity For Excellence.

In spite of what Jay Triano may believe, winning closely-contested NBA games involves doing many more things than just:

1. Making Free Throws, on offense;
2. Making “plays” for one another, on offense; and,
3. Making shots [i.e. Field Goals], on offense.

and, includes, for example:

iv. Preventing “dribble penetration”;
v. Preventing “pass penetration”;
vii. “Contesting” each Field Goal Attempt;
viii. Committing Personal Fouls in a strategic way;
ix. Making steals;
x. Making deflections;
xi. Blocking shots;
xii. Recovering loose balls;
xiii. Executing a range of different Strategies and Tactics, on defense;
xiv. Eliminating Opponent Offensive Rebounds/Rebounding each missed Oppenent FGA/FTA; and,
xv. Retreiving missed FGAs/FTAs by creating an offensive rebound;

Five-Man Unit stats from 82games.com for the Raptors

Top Five-Man Floor Units

Top Five-Man Floor Units, Details

none of which are enhanced by using a two Point Guard line-up, when these two specific players are:

Jose Calderon, 6-3, 197
Jarrett Jack, 6-3, 205

each of whom is a non-elite level defender/rebounder and lacking in outstanding explosive quickness,

in conjunction with:

Hedo Turkoglu/SF … who is a non-elite level defender/rebounder and lacking in explosive quickness;

Chris Bosh/PF … who is a solid defender/rebounder;

Andrea Bargnani/C … who is a non-elite level defender/rebounder and lacking in explosive quickness.

There are Three Main Phases to a basketball game:

Offense, Defense and Rebounding,

and, until the Raptors do a much better job of incorporating ALL THREE phases into their game-planning, at all times, they will remain a middle-of-the-pack team in the NBA landscape.

———————————

PS. What makes this a particularly egregious faux pas, in the Raptors’ current situation, are the number of other Five-Man Unit options which they have available that would do a better job of balancing The Three Main Phases Of The Game for Toronto:

OFFENSIVE & REBOUNDING EMPHASIS
Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Calderon + Weems + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Calderon + DeRozan + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Weems + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + DeRozan + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Belinelli + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani
Jack + Belinelli + Weems + Bosh + Bargnani

DEFENSIVE & REBOUNDING EMPHASIS
Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Calderon + Weems + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Calderon + DeRozan + Weems + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Weems + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + DeRozan + Weems + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Belinelli + Turkoglu + Johnson + Bosh
Jack + Belinelli + Weems + Johnson + Bosh

more than one of which have yet to be tried at all by the Raptors this season.

Toronto Raptors 101
INDIANA PACERS 105
Complete Game Info - Mon Jan 11 2010

When you take a closer look at the way this specific game was played by these two teams, in terms of their respective rotations:

A.i. LINE-UPS
Raptors and Pacers each use a conventional 5-man unit.
Raptors use Hedo Turkoglu at SF.

A.ii. LINE-UPS
Raptors and Pacers each use a conventional 5-man unit.
Raptors use Sonny Weems at SF.

B. LINE-UPS
Pacers use an unconventional/”small” 5-man unit with Danny Granger at PF.
Raptors use a conventional 5-man unit with Hedo Turkoglu and then Antoine Wright at SF.

C. LINE-UPS
Pacers use an unconventional/”small” 5-man unit with Danny Granger at PF.
Raptors use an unconventional 5-man unit with Hedo Turkoglu at PF and Sonny Weems at SF.

what you should be able to see is that each squad had considerable success with specific types of 5-man units and struggled mightily with others.  

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS

#1. When the Pacers first went “small”, at the 08:09 mark of the 2nd quarter, down by 22 points, what the Raptors needed to do in response was:

- Keep Amir Johnson/PF in the game, matched-up vs Danny Granger

- Replace Marco Belinelli/OG with Hedo Turkoglu/SF; shift Sonny Weems to the OG position; and, replace Rasho Nesterovic/C with Chris Bosh

If Toronto would have made these specific moves it would have created the following individual match-ups:

Pos, Raptor [Off|Def|Reb] vs Opp

PG, Calderon [+|-|0] vs Price
OG, Weems [0|+|+] vs Rush
SF, Turkoglu [0|-|0] vs Dunleavy
PF, Johnson [-|+|0] vs Granger
C, Bosh [0|+|0] vs Murphy

and put the Raptors in a good position to maintain their 20+ point lead heading toward half-time.

#2. When the Pacers went “small” to begin the 4th quarter, what the Raptors needed to do was:

- Replace Marco Belinelli/OG with Sonny Weems, at the 11:22 mark

- Keep Amir Johnson/PF on the floor, matched-up vs Danny Granger

If Toronto would have made these specific moves it would have created the following individual match-ups:

PG, Calderon [+|-|0] vs Price
OG, Weems [-|+|+] vs Rush
SF, Turkoglu [0|-|0] vs Dunleavy
PF, Johnson [-|+|0] vs Granger
C, Bargnani [0|0|-] vs Murphy

and put the Raptors in a good position to maintain their 8 point lead heading toward crunch time … i.e. the final 10 minutes … in the 4th quarter.

#3. According to the 5-man unit stats at 82games.com, the Raptors have yet to try the combination of:

Calderon/PG + Weems/OG + Turkolgu/SF + Bosh/PF + Bargnani/C

this season for any significant stretch of playing time.  

Although Sonny Weems has yet to convert a 3PT-shot in his NBA career, at 6-6, 203 he is an athletic defender/rebounder, at the OG position, who:

i. Shoots 45% on his 2FGAs
ii. Slashes well to the basket, in both half and full court situations
iii. Has the ability to draw fouls, and
iv. Plays with a high degree of energy. 

An effective compliment to the specific skill-sets of Jose Calderon [i.e. a good ball-handler and perimeter shooter], Hedo Turkoglu [i.e. a solid ball-handler and perimeter shooter], Andrea Bargnani [i.e. a good perimeter shooter] and Chris Bosh [i.e. a good mid-range/low-post scorer] … Sonny Weems is the player who the Raptors need to play at the OG position when the opposition elects to go “small” vs Toronto, like the Pacers did, during key stretches of Monday’s game.

During Wednesday’s television broadcast of the Orlando/Toronto game, Jack Armstrong, Toronto’s analyst, made the following observation about the perceived talent level for this year’s Raptors team:  

Then, on Thursday evening , during the FAN590’s ”Hoops” broadcast, Eric Smith, Toronto’s radio analyst, tried to re-iterated this same point of view, when a caller suggested that the Charlotte Bobcats should actually be considered as “a better team with more NBA talent than the Raptors” … along with, at least, 4 other teams in the Estern Conference, i.e. Boston, Orlando, Cleveland and Atlanta.

After hearing Eric’s response to that caller, this is the exact comment [including errors] which was submitted by yours truly to his FAN590 blog, The Rap, on Friday, Dec 18 2009, at 2:17 PM:

————-

Hi, Eric.

I heard you on speak with a caller on last night’s show, just prior to 8:00 PM, concerning your belief that the Raptors [11-17/.393] are a better team than the Bobcats [10-14/.417]. According to what you said, your opinion was based on conversations you have had with various NBA insiders who you have encountered across the league and what their impression of Toronto and Charlotte has been to this point in the season.

Respectfully, it is my contention that you … and these NBA insiders who you happened to have communicated with regarding the relative strength of these two teams … happen to be incorrect in this assessment, and will eventually be proven wrong are the season plays itself out.

After starting the season poorly, without Stephen Jackson on their roster, the Bobcats have begun to climb up the standings in the Eastern Conference, and are now ahead of the Raptors. Although the Raptors [#4] have played a more difficult schedule than the Bobcats [#15], to this point, IMO, Charlotte has more “NBA talent” on its current roster, and should probably be expected to close out the current season by finishing ahead of Toronto in the final standings.

Calderon [+1] > Felton
DeRozan < Jackson [+1]
Turkoglu < Wallace [+2]
Bosh [+2] > Diaw
Bargnani < Chandler [+3]
———————-
Jack = Augustin
Belinelli < Henderson [+4]
Wright < Brown [+5]
Johnson = Mohammed
Nesterovic [+3] > Diop
———————-
Banks < Murray [+6]
Seems [+4] > Law
 Mensah-Bonsu = Graham
Evans [+5] ?
O’Bryant = Ajinca
———————-
Triano < Brown [+7]

PS. Hopefully, the fanbase should now be able to see that we’ve been saying for a while now, re: Jose Calderon’s relative lack of individual defensive prowess not being the major catalyst for the team’s many short-comings on that side of the ball, has been a highly accurate assessment.

————- 

As you can clearly see there are several typos and what appear to be “publication errors” contained in that specific comment, which was submitted rather hurriedly and is still awaiting moderation/publication at The Rap.

In an effort to clear up any mis-understanding which Eric Smith - or other visitors to his blog - might have … 

Here is a more “in-depth” analysis of the rosters for the Raptors and the Bobcats, with a few adjustments to the initial ratings that more accurately reflect the current state of affairs with these two teams, from the perspective of this coner:

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Visitors here are invited to elaborate further on their own answer to this question in the comments section.

This evening’s game between Toronto [11-16/.407, 2nd Atlantic] and Orlando [18-6/.750, 1st Southeast] marks the first occasion for the “Turkish Michael Jordan” to make a return visit to his old haunt in the Magic Kingdom.

As the former “go-to, clutch time” performer for last season’s squad in Orlando, which played its way to the NBA Finals …

What did it really say about Hedo Turkoglu [at 30 years of age] that he was actually willing to forego the opportunity to win a NBA championship with the Magic this season, in order to sign a $50.0 M contract to play the next 5 seasons for the Toronto Raptors?

Perhaps, that he really does care more about being content and comfortable in his own personal life than he cares about doing what’s necessary to win a NBA championship.

Doing what’s necessary to win a NBA championship?

For example:

* Getting back in defensive transition to prevent easy opposition baskets.

* Defending one’s individual check with consistent tenacity.

* Defending, in a half-court team context, with thorough responsibility.

* Rebounding with an absolute commitment to recover the ball.

* Discriminating readily between an open and a contested shot attempt.

* Physically standing up for a fallen/vulnerable teammate, when need be.

* A willingness to play within an assigned role for the good of the team.

* A willingness to sacrifice oneself [i.e. the physical body, as well as, personal wants and desires] for the benefit of the team.

In their 16 losses this year, Bryan Colangelo’s Raptors have succumbed by margins of:

Considering that the acquisition of Hedo Turkoglu/SF:

Career Stats, Hedo Turkoglu

was one of the two major personnel moves made by the Raptors this past summer …

along with the $50.0 M, 5-yr extension of the ‘rookie contract’ for former No. 1 [overall] Draft Pick, Andrea Bargnani/C:

Career Stats, Andrea Bargnani

it should be of little wonder to the Raptors faithful that Toronto is mired in the lower half of the Eastern Conference, in a quest for the last playoff position.

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Shame on those who actually thought that Otis Smith [GM, Orlando Magic] may not have known exactly what he was talking about …

Orlando Magic GM dissing Hedo Turkoglu?

in his alleged conversations with Kevin Pritchard [GM, Portland Trail Blazers], in the aftermath of Mr. Turkoglu’s decision to sign on with the Raptors, and that Hedo Turkoglu’s priorities might actually include winning a NBA title. 

Caveat Emptor!

With last night’s 16th loss of the season …

Toronto Raptors 95
MIAMI HEAT 115
Game Summary

the most important question for the Toronto Raptors is:

Q1. Should this team, as constructed, be expected to improve substantially over the course of the next 55 games, or not?

A1. Well …

PART ONE

This is what the Eastern Conference standings look like today:

PART TWO

As of Fri Dec 11 2009, this is what the Strength Of Schedule [SOS] looked like for the teams in the East:

PART THREE

Looking at the injury situation for the Raptors and the other teams around them in the standings:

PART FOUR

For all practical intents and purposes:

PART FIVE

As has been said in this corner, since the 2009 NBA Draft took place …

when the Raptors chose not to trade down from the No. 9 position [overall], in an effort to re-invigorate their squad with:

* An additional NBA-calibre player obtained in a trade down

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, which could have been used to acquire an in-coming player like Brandon Jennings, or Terrence Williams, or Earl Clark, or Rodrigue Beaubois, or Taj Gibson

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have bought with their $3.0 M ‘draft voucher’ obtained in their trade with the Miami Heat, which they could have used to acquire a player like Taj Gibson, or DeJuan Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Sam Young, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

or

The upper 2nd Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, if a lower 1st Round Pick was not available, with which they could have acquired an in-coming player like DeJaun Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

and the decisons were made by Bryan Colangelo:

1 To not re-sign Shawn Marion for the dollar amount required to retain his services;

2 To not re-sign their own unrestricted free agents [i.e. Anthony Parker and Joey Graham];

3 To sign Jay Triano [then, interim head coach] to a 3-yr contract extension;

4 To complete the series of trades which then ensued with Orlando, Dallas, Golden State and Milwaukee, in effect, exchanging the following players on the team’s 2008-2009 roster with their corresponding counterparts [i.e. coded by colour] on the current version:

… that actually did little overall to substantially improve the Quality Depth on their team, despite what the fanbase was originally led to believe by the Raptors’ Management Team and assorted NBA “observers” who extolled the influx of supposed “talent” associated with these new additions to the roster …

this year’s Raptors team is no better than a number of other middle-of-the- pack outfits in the Eastern Conference and, in fact, should be expected to struggle to make the playoffs this season.

Those who thought/think that this edition of the Toronto Raptors has UNDER-ACHIEVED, to this point, this season …

were/are fundamentally INCORRECT.

This is precisely WHO and WHAT the Raptors are, and approximately WHERE the 2009-2010 version of their team SHOULD BE expected to finish this season, based on the personnel [i.e. players and coaches] on its roster.

Houston Rockets [10-13] 88
TORONTO RAPTORS [11-15] 101
Box Score

One of the beauties of basketball is that there are almost always different ways to accomplish a specific goal.

If the Raptors use the player rotation which they employed yesterday:

they should be able to compete successfully against the other middle-of-the-pack teams, in the NBA, from game-to-game.

This is just one example of an effective rotation for the Raptors which:

1. Places increased emphasis on Team Defense and Rebounding.

2. Makes much better use of the more dynamic NBA calibre athletes on their roster [i.e. Sonny Weems, Amir Johnson and Pops Mensah-Bonsu].

3. More clearly defines each player’s role in a tighter [i.e. 8-9 man] rotation.

4. Limits/reduces the minutes played overall by Andrea Bargnani/C [i.e. MPG/33.2]. 

5. Minimizes/eliminates the minutes played overall by Antoine Wright/SF [i.e. DNP]. 

If they use this specific rotation in their next game, at Miami [Tue Dec 15], the Raptors should be able to battle the Heat down to the final few possessions … which, on a consistent basis, is really all any Raptors fan can ask for this season, given the overall “quality” of the roster.

Following last night’s deflating home loss to the Atlanta Hawks, the conference standings in the East look like this:

Prior to the 2009 NBA Draft, however, these were some of the players who were recommended in this space for the Toronto Raptors:

Terrence Williams [OG-SF, New Jersey, 1st Rd]
Earl Clark [SF-PF, Phoenix, 1st Rd]
Derrick Brown [SF-PF, Charlotte, 2nd Rd]
Taj Gibson [PF, Chicago, 1st Rd]
Dante Cunningham [PF, Portland, 2nd Rd]
Marcus Thornton [OG, New Orleans, via Miami, 2nd Rd]
Nando De Colo [OG-SF, San Antonio, 2nd Rd]

Prior to the 4-team trade that involved the Raptors, Magic, Mavericks and Grizzlies, it was also suggested here that Toronto should:

If the Raptors would have followed those recommendations, instead of:

culminating with a roster that looks like the middle column in the following chart: