khandor’s sports blog

According to …

The specific take of an NBA Secret Scout

… who was asked to provide his breakdown of the Raptors’ main weaknesses for the coming season.

1. Toronto is one of weakest defensive teams, overall, in the league.

2. They struggle defending Pick & Rolls … i.e. every team’s basic ‘Bread & Butter’ play.

3. Their Guards [i.e. in general, not just Jose Calderon] don’t get “over” screens.

4. Their Bigs don’t “battle” and are “at risk of being split”.

5. They struggle “to defend 1-on-1 in the post”.

6. You must get the ball inside on post-ups or dribble drives.

7. Bargnani, specifically, has trouble containing dribble penetration from wing players when the Raptors go to a “big” line-up [i.e. which refers to any 5-man unit with Bargnani at, either, the PF or the SF position].

8. They are a jump-shooting team that was 6th in 3FG% last year.

9. “Get into them” [i.e. which means "to crowd" their players, A. on the dribble, and B. in close-out situations] in order to prevent uncontested/unharassed comfort jump shots. 

============================

As difficult as it may be for some many? die-hard Raptors fans to believe … from the perspective of this corner … the specific areas targeted in this video by the ‘NBA Secret Scout’ are precisely what a real life basketball expert actually sees when s/he watches Toronto play on a regular basis, and the truly unfortunate fact is that it’s been this exact same way for the last 3 seasons … as Andrea Bargnani’s individual PT has been steadily increased – i.e. following his rookie season when he first had the good fortune of being able to see only limited floor time, working behind a solid group of 4 other Bigs, who were with the Raptors at that time, including Chris Bosh [#1/C-PF], Jorge Garbajosa [#2/PF-SF], Rasho Nesterovic [#3/C-PF] and Kris Humphries [#5/PF] – and the team, in general, has moved away from using ‘experienced and effective’ wing players who were [at least] adequate [by-and-large] individual defensive players, from a physical, skill-based and cognitive standpoint [e.g. Morris Peterson/SF-OG, Jamario Moon/SF-PF-OG and Anthony Parker/OG-SF-PG].

Last year, the specific talk coming from Raptors training camp was about the team’s new over-riding Defensive Philosophy, referred to as, “Protecting the House,” in an all-out effort to improve their Defensive FG%. 

Unfortunately, last year’s Raptors then finished the 2009-2010 season as one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

Now, during this year’s training camp, this is what is currently being said about the Raptors Point of Emphasis, defensively, for the coming season:

———————————–

Raptors focus on fine art of defence

It is a delicate balance the Raptors seek as they try to improve the weakest aspect of their game.

They have to teach aggression tempered with intelligence. Quickness rather than speed.

They need continuity from a group of relative strangers and a dedication to a cause that brings with it little glory.

Easy? Not so much, but if they don’t shore up their defence and find a system that suits their personnel, any chance of being even a mildly surprising team in the coming NBA season is gone out the window.

It is the topic as training camp drones on, the one thing that coach Jay Triano and his assistants are more worried about than any other.

“One, you’ve got a number of new guys who are going to be in the rotation so that’s immediately a challenge,” said assistant coach P.J. Carlesimo. “Two, you don’t have a lot of continuity. Even though you could say it’s Jay’s third year, it’s at least a second, if not a third, different roster so it’s not like he’s had two years to install his system and the same guys are playing his system.

“The good news is you have some young guys with some quickness and enthusiasm. The bad news is you have young guys and inexperienced guys.”

What the Raptors want to do defensively sounds so simple: They want to apply pressure as much as possible, take away outside shots, force turnovers and score off their defence.

“I’d say we’re more aggressive,” said Triano. “Last year we had a tendency to sit on boxes (in the low post) and elbows (at the top of the free-throw lane) and protect the paint and the house and all that. This year, we’re just out and guarding guys.”

———————————–

1. Pressure the ball.

and,

2. Create more turnovers.

Hmmm …

Simple to do, perhaps … if you have enough of the right type of players on your roster, in the first place.

When you actually compare the individual defensive ability of the 15 players on the present roster for the Raptors to the group which ended the 2009-2010 campaign, what you get looks something like this:

Those who think the Team Defensive woes of the 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors will be cured by this year’s squad making a renewed commitment to ”applying increased ball pressure”, over the course of an 82-game regular season are, quite simply, unfamiliar with the way in which the NBA actually works:

General Truths About the NBA Game, From a Defensive Perspective:

1. “Less experienced” players are not superior Individual or Team defenders, in comparison with veteran players.

2. “Faster” players do not necessarily prove to be superior Individual or Team defenders, in comparison with slower players.

3. Authentic “high end” Team Defensive ability stems, primarily, from just 2 sources:

i. Having enough rotational players whose specific WEAKNESS does not originate in their own Individual and/or Team defensive game;

 and,

ii. A head coach’s PERSONAL COMMITMENT TO EXCELLENCE, on the defensive side of the floor, based upon the successful implementation/execution of sound and highly integrated strategic and/or tactical concepts. [NOTE: Please recognize the plural form of the final word in this last sentence.]

When a team is atrocious on the defensive side of the ball, however, it does not become significantly better by:

while retaining non defensive stalwarts like:

in their existing roles, in the regular rotation, AND retaining the same head coach who was responsible for the implementation of the Defensive Philosophy which was used the previous season, even if the nature of THAT specific philosophy is supposedly going to change for the new campaign.

Scoring enough points to win games … against high end competition … has not been a major problem for the Raptors during the last several seasons. Preventing high end opponents from doing likewise, however, has consistently been one of the Dinos main problems.

With the set of players, coaches, and GM – i.e. who is responsible for putting together the roster – currently in place for this team, do not expect this reality to change this season.    

Those calling for Bryan Colangelo to be dismissed, as the GM for the Raptors, are delusional.

What the Raptors – and Bryan Colangelo – NEED to do, however, at this point in time, is implement a fundamental PARADIGM SHIFT … in the way that their basketball operation conducts its business, by prioritizing the objective of TRYING TO WIN MULTIPLE NBA CHAMPIONSHIPS through the gradual construction of a top notch player roster that is filled with solid “NBA level talent” [i.e. in terms of specific skill sets and athleticism] and a proven coaching staff.

As wrong as each of Bryan Colangelo’s major personnel moves have been, thus fas, in his tenure as the Raptors’ GM, the fact is …

1. He finally did the RIGHT THING … by failing to making any trades this season at the Trade Deadline;

and,

2. He is finally now saying the RIGHT THING … as far as [i] properly managing the expectations for the team heading into next season AND [ii] assessing accurately just how far away this current collection of players is from actually being able to compete successfully for a Top 4 playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, in the not-too-distant future …

provided that he is NOW willing to:

A. Keep Chris Bosh/C;

B. Exceed the Luxury Tax Threshold;

and,

C. Trade Andrea Bargnani/C, in exchange for a solid, veteran wing player with good size, NBA athleticism, and a commitment to sound defensive play and rebounding.

To wit:

Andrea Bargnani Trade Proposal

What this specific trade would accomplish …

OPTION 1

From a Raptors’ perspective:

Keeping Bosh would be Step 1.

Trading Bargnani for Battier + Taylor would be Step 2.

- it would rid the team of a defensive albatross
- it would add a 3rd string PG to play behind Calderon and Banks
- it would add a solid wing defender/rebounder with good size to go with the younger tandem of DeRozan and Weems

Step 3 would then involve trading Hedo Turkoglu.

Step 4 would then involve trading Jarrett Jack.

Step 5 would then involve keeping Amir Johnson.

Step 6 would then involve selecting another future rotation player with the 2010 1st Round Draft Pick.

The Raptors would then be moving forward with the following group of players:

1 Chris Bosh, C
2 Amir Johnson, PF
3 Shane Battier, SF
4 DeMar DeRozan, OG
5 Jose Calderon, PG

6 New Player #1 [obtained via trade for Turkoglu]
7 New Player #2 [obtained via trade for Jack]
8 Sonny Weems, OG-SF
9 Marco Belinelli, OG-PG
10 Jermaine Taylor, PG
11 Marcus Banks, PG
12 2010 1st Round Pick
13 New Player #3 [FA signed to replace Antoine Wright]
14 Reggie Evans, PF [or New Player #4, obtained via trade for Reggie Evans]
15 Rasho Nesterovic, C [re-signed for the veteran's minimum]

Patrick O’Bryant would not be re-signed.
Joey Dorsey would not be re-signed [or, he would replace Reggie Evans].

==============================

From the Rockets’ perspective:

1. Bargnani could play Center for them, if Yao Ming isn’t ready to go at the start of next season.

2. Bargnani could be used as Yao Ming’s offensively oriented back-up off the bench, if the big fella is ready to start the season.

3. Bargnani could be used at the PF position, beside Yao Ming, if the big fella is ready to start the seaon, and the Rockets want to go with a twin towers line-up.

——————————————–
NOTE: In every situation, Morey would need to play Bargnani with solid positional defenders in order to compensate for Il Mago’s deficiency in this area. Morey is smart enough to pull that off.
——————————————–

OPTION 2

The same as Option 1, above, except … the Raptors would simply elect to keep Hedo Turkoglu.

——————————————–

What would the 2010-2011 roster then look like for the Raptors?

The more time an astute NBA observer actually spends looking at the depth chart involved with OPTION 2, the more this observer should then begin to see a variety of different possibilities which would be quite a positive development for the Raptors … moving forward … as a team that finished in the No. 9 position this season [especially if Bryan Colangelo can also get a future protected 1st Round Draft Pick included in the trade with Houston].

——————————————–

Despite what some might think, yours truly is firmly in the Raptors’ corner and of the belief that the pro hoops franchise in Toronto has ALWAYS been just a few RIGHT moves away from being able to develop into one of the premier organizations in the entire NBA.

There’s an old adage in the world of sport that goes something like this:

“You should never, ever, take solace in the mis-fortune of your opponent.”

… because:

i. It’s simple not the right way to live your own life;

ii. The “Sporting Gods” do NOT shine their favour on those who fall prey to this affliction;

iii. The “Sporting” Gods do shine their favour, however, on those who focus on what they CAN DO themselves to give their own team the best chance of winning. Period.

In general, this is a tried and true philosophy which makes a great deal of sense … when it comes to NOT taking any solace in the mis-fortune that can sometimes befall AN OPPONENT.

As far as the Raptors are concerned, however …

This adage HAPPENS NOT TO APPLY … when the misfortune, in question, actually be-falls a player on YOUR OWN TEAM!

To wit:

Yes, the Raptors are about to take the court this evening against the Bulls, as a battered and bruised team.

EXhibit A

Chris Bosh/PF is out of the Raptors’ line-up indefinitely while recovering from facial fractures he sustained this past week, against Cleveland. This fact hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

Exhibit B

Hedo Turkoglu/SF is in the line-up for this evening’s game, but with a protective mask on his face his face to guard against incurring further damage to his own broken nose, sustained this past week, against Boston. Since Turkoglu simply hates wearing a protective mask on his face, this fact also hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

Exhibit C

Amir Johnson/PF … who replaced Chris Bosh in the Raptors’ Starting Line-up against Atlanta … is playing in this evening’s game, but with a slightly sprained ankle which he incurred during the 2nd half. This fact hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

Exhibit D

Jarrett Jack/PG … their solid Back-up to Jose Calderon … is playing in this evening’s game, but with a slightly sprained ankle/foot which he also incurred during the 4th quarter against Atlanta. This fact hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

But, all hope is far from lost for the Raptors, as …

Exhibit E

Antoine Wright/SF-OG … their defensive specialist at the wing positions and the primary back-up to Turkoglu and Sonny Weems … is out of the line-up indefinitely with a severely sprained right ankle which he incurred during the 4th quarter against Atlanta. This fact HELPS the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight … in a major way.

Huh? … What’s that you say?

It’s impossible to have a 5th injured player from a team’s regular rotation out of the line-up completely for a do-or-die, quasi-elimination game … and, somehow, believe that HIS ABSENCE will actually help his team get a W in that game.

Well, you know what?

NOT IN THIS INSTANCE!

If the Raptors are forced to use a tight 8-Man rotation which looks like this:

it says here that Toronto WILL WIN TONIGHT’S GAME AGAINST THE CHICAGO BULLS …

because using Antoine Wright, as a defensive specialist … when he isn’t very good on defense, to begin with, AND is absolutely horrid on offense, MOST of the time … is actually a huge detriment to the Raptors ever being able to win any game against a decent-to-good opponent when their team could instead be giving his PT to:

a. Sonny Weems, or
b. Hedo Turkoglu, or
c. DeMar DeRozan, or
d. Marco Belinelli,

at the same time as it is also giving increased PT to Amir Johnson [i.e. an athletic rebounder/defender] and Rasho Nesterovic [i.e. a non athletic rebounder/defender].

The fact is … not having Antoine Wright in the line-up tonight is a HUGE CASE of “Addition by Subtraction”, in favour of the Raptors.

Chris Black … for whom this corner has a considerable degree of respect …  suggested yesterday that the Raptors would be doing the “right thing”, if they were to insert Reggie Evans/PF into their Starting Unit, given the recent injury sustained by Chris Bosh/PF:

Ball v.1.33

[excerpt #1]

… I think most people would suggest you should just move Johnson into the starting lineup and go from there, however, the more Evans plays, the more the numbers are starting to say something fairly startling. That’s why I think he should start alongside Bargnani. And it’s why I think he should start alongside Bosh when/if the time comes.

Let me build my case:

First off, and in simplest terms: With Evans on the floor, the Raptors outscore their opponents by 2.15 points per 100 possessions (best mark on the team).

Why is that possible? Why does it happen?

[excerpt #2]

… here are Toronto’s big men, listed by their Opponent’s PER:

STAT OF THE DAY CHARGES PER 40 MINUTES – NBA LEADERS

Evans 11.1
Bosh 18.1
Bargnani 19.1
Johnson 19.8
Nesterovic 21.6

Reggie gets after it defensively. And that’s why I think he should start for the remainder of this season and the playoffs.

One more reason Reggie is quickly becoming a favourite of mine, and it’s my Stat of the Day

Nick Collison 1.45
Reggie Evans 1.36
Jose Juan Barea 1.26
Kyle Lowry 1.25
Jared Jeffries 1.20

==========

Q1. Could it, possibly, be that Chris is right about this?

A1. No, unfortunately, in this instance, he is not correct.

Here’s the take from yours truly:

———-

[from the comment section at T.Jose Caldeford]

Chris,

If you check the actual play-by-play data for Reggie Evans’ minutes played so far this season, you should be able to see that he has seen quite a bit of floor time playing Power Forward with Chris Bosh at the Center position.

To expect Reggie Evans’ +/- numbers to remain constant when he’s used in combination with [Andrea] Bargnani or [Amir] Johnson, instead of Chris Bosh, is to fail to understand how the NBA game actually works, based on individual match-ups, mismatches and who exactly is on the floor, both, with and against you.

As difficult [counter-intuitive?] as it might seem …

The Raptors best chance for success in Chris Bosh’s absence would be to:

PG – Play Calderon more minutes over Jack
OG + SF – Use a 3-player rotation of Weems, Turkoglu and DeRozan
PF + C – Use a 3-player rotation of Nesterovic, Bargnani and Johnson

in a tight 8-man rotation

… with support from Antoine Wright/OG-SF, Marco Belinelli/OG-PG and Reggie Evans/PF.

Starting and giving copious amounts of PT to Reggie Evans is NOT the correct answer to the Raptors’ current dilema, when Chris Bosh is the one who is missing from their everyday line-up.

———-

Reggie Evans is a low end PF who:

1. Has a great deal of difficulty finishing around the rim;

2. Is a poor mid-range shooter;

3. Is a non-shot blocker [i.e. similar to other very limited back-up players like Collison-N/PF, Barea/PG, Lowry/PG, Jeffries/PF];

4. Fouls excessively;

5. Is slow-footed in both defensive and offensive transition;

6. Is a poor individual defender, when facing Top Tier opposition;

7. Is a poor individual defender in Pick & Roll/Pop + Hedge situations;

8. Is a poor team defender in Help situations;

9. Is a good “hustle/energy” player that can use his body, physically, to rebound;

and,

10. Gives his “best effort” at all times [i.e. which is highly valued by a hockey-crazed fanbase]. 

Nothing more, and nothing less, than THAT.

———–

It can sometimes be amazing to see just how many NBA observers actually watch the games that take place each night without paying closer attention to who exactly is on the floor, matched-up against what individual check, and with what specific set of teammates beside him, working at what specific positions … despite the increased level of statistical sophistication which exists in today’s on-line hoops community.

Despite what you might have been told by countless others …

including, for example, Dean Oliver, Kevin Pelton, David Berri, Wayne Winston, Dan Rosenbaum, John Hollinger, Justin Kubatko, Neil Paine, and even Daryl Morey, etc.

… when it comes to being able to win the league championship,

Basketball is simply not a game of “macro data analysis”, pertaining to “average” performance levels in a host of existing game-stat categories, by a set of “generic” players, represented through their rotisserie league “production numbers”.

Basketball is a game which is based on a seemingly endless series of individual and inter-connected match-ups and mismatches … that can best be understood through a combination of highly specific “micro data analysis”, relevant “macro data analysis,” and highly developed “basketball acumen”, derived from countless hours of practiced learning, playing, and actually teaching/coaching others how the game is really played [properly?] by the very best players in the world, both, in isolation AND when working in conjunction with teammates, coaches and opponents. 

———-

Hopefully, Jay Triano & Co. will heed the specific suggestions provided here and, in the process, be able to secure enough wins from their 4 remaining regular season games to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs.

1. Since last summer, the prognostication from this corner of the blogosphere has been that the Raptors would likely finish the 2009-2010 campaign with somewhere between 38-to-44 wins. 

2. What yours truly wrote on Michael Grange’s blog [i.e. From Deep] yesterday afternoon:

Toronto used a “new” Starting 5, on Friday night, against Denver:

Jose Calderon, PG [same as before]
Sonny Weems, OG [new]
Antoine Wright, SF [new]
Chris Bosh, PF [same as before]
Andrea Bargnani, C [same as before]

The same day, Jermaine O’Neal/C hyperextended his right knee in Miami’s road win at Milwaukee and is not expected to play in this evening’s home game against the Raptors.

If the Raptors decide to use a slightly different version of their ”new” Starting 5 and insert a healthy Hedo Turkoglu into the SF position, in place of Antoine Wright, it will create the following set of individual match-ups:

Option 1 – Currently Expected Rotations

and, in all likelihood mean that Toronto will lose their 3rd game in a row.

On the other hand, if the Raptors decide to go with Option 2:

Option 2 – Should Be Rotations, from Toronto’s POV

… there’s a fairly good chance they will be able to put a stop to their 2-game losing streak and stay 1.5 games ahead of the 9th place Bulls in the Eastern Conference standings.

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Contrary to popular belief …

Andrea Bargnani is a long ways away from being a useless NBA player, provided that he is actually used properly, i.e. as a Back-up Center, who becomes THE focal point of the Raptors’ offense each time Chris Bosh is taken off the floor.

At some point, the days eventually begin to run together, in Raptorville.

The same problems occur from one season to the next and, seemingly, never ever get fixed properly.

——————————————–

Feschuk: Listless Raptors puzzle GM Colangelo

“I’ve got a lot of suspicions, I guess, of what’s gone wrong. It hasn’t been the same since the all-star break,” Colangelo said. “Too many guys came back from the break with a different approach. And that’s the part that’s troubling. … It’s not a talent issue. And it’s clear that the right message is being delivered (by the coaching staff). But the students have to carry out the agenda. And it’s got to be a team agenda. It can’t be an individual agenda.”

——————————————–

Is removing Jose Calderon from the starting line-up, once again, really going to solve their on-going problems at the defensive end of the floor?

Chisholm: Triano sending the wrong message

Is removing DeMar DeRozan from the starting line-up, for the first time this season, really going to be the catalyst for a substantive change in the way that this team approaches the business of rebounding and being able to fight back when things don’t quite go according to plan, in a given quarter, half, or game? … as other legitimate contending teams have always done in the history of the NBA.

Is asking Chris Bosh [i.e. the team's best player, by a wide margin] … the same question, again, and again:

“What’s wrong with you guys?”

really going to illicit a pearl of wisdom that, if said out loud to the reporters in a post practice/game media scrum, is going to miraculously change the culture which exists within their locker-room?

———————————–

The reality of the Raptors’ current situation is this:

1. Once the trade deadline has passed, there is very little that can be done to fundamentally alter the personnel on a team’s roster.

2. Firing their head coach makes little sense, given that he was hand-picked by the GM to run the day-to-day operation only 9 months ago, and the organization is still paying the salary of its former head coach [i.e. Sam Mitchell], who was fired in December of last season.

3. The team’s defensive woes have NOT been rooted in the mediocre-to-poor play of Jose Calderon, who is comparable … as a less-than stellar individual defender with a solid offensive game … to 6 of the other starting Point Guards for the Top 15 teams in the league [i.e. see the chart below].

4.  The team’s defensive woes have NOT been rooted in the mediocre-to-poor play of DeMar DeRozan, who is the most effective Off Guard on their roster, given the individual short-comings of Antoine Wright, Sonny Weems and Marco Belinelli, none of whom are comparable to the starting players for the Top 15 teams in the league [i.e. see the chart below].

5. The most significant difference between Toronto’s starting line-up and the Top 15 teams in the league is at the Center position.

6. Opposite to what Bryan Colangelo might actually think:

* TENACITY is, in fact, a most valuable TALENT in the NBA … since every player does not have it in the same quantity;

and,

* The wrong message is, in fact, being sent whenever a NBA team uses an offensively focused player as its starting Center … while it does not also have a DOMINANT, multi-dimensional, Small Forward in its best Group of 5.

7. If Chris Bosh is, in fact, the best player on your team, by a wide margin, and Jose Calderon is, in fact, the best offensively focused Point Guard, and Hedo Turkoglu is, in fact, the best offensively focused Small Forward, then you simply CANNOT HAVE have another offensively focused player as your starting Center … if you want your team to exhibit the type of TENACITY that’s required to fight back from adverse situations which occur in NBA games. 

8. Andrea Bargnani is the player who NEEDS to be removed from the team’s starting line-up, if Toronto is going to turn around its lost season.

———-

PS. FYI, the stats shown here for TS%, DEF and TReb are from hoopdata.com.

Now that they have finally managed to end their recent stretch of bad play, with their improbable come-from-behind home court victory, on Wednesday, vs Atlanta …

i.e. According to Matt Devlin [the Raptors' television play-by-play announcer], in games where the Hawks had led during the final 3 minutes of the 4th quarter], their W-L record had been 41-4 …

QUESTION
What should the Raptors’ expectations be for their next 3 games?

ANSWER
- Win vs Oklahoma City, Fri Mar 19 [2nd W in a row]
- Win at New Jersey, Sat Mar 20 [3rd W in a row]
- Win at Minnesota, Mon Mar 22 [4th W in a row]

… provided they:

1. Continue to sit out Antoine Wright [as their 5th Wing];
2. Give only limited PT to Reggie Evans [as their 5th Big];
3. Give only limited PT to Marco Belinelli [as their 4th Wing; and, 3rd PG];
4. Increase the PT for Sonny Weems [as their 3rd Wing];
5. Increase the PT for DeMar DeRozan [and, specifically, use him to finish games, as their 2nd Wing ... beside either Hedo Turkoglu/1st Wing or Weems/2nd Wing];
6. Continue to start Jose Calderon [as their main PG];
7. Completely eliminate the Calderon+Jarrett Jack [as their 2nd PG] line-up;
8. Increase the PT for Amir Johnson [as their 3rd Big];
9. Decrease the PT for Andrea Bargnani [as their 2nd Big]; and,
10. Increase the PT for Chris Bosh, at the Center position [as their 1st Big].

At this point in the season, and given the relative position of the other teams in the Eastern Conference Standings … if Toronto continues to use an 8-man rotation which looks like this:

STARTERS
Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani [or Johnson]

KEY SUBS
Jack, Weems and Johnson [or Bargnani]

RESERVES
Banks, Belinelli, Evans and Nesterovic

EXTRAS/OUTS
Wright and O’Bryant

… there is no legitimate reason, whatsoever, for this Raptors team to fail to make the playoffs.

These are the 2 most recent articles penned by Dave Feschuk, Toronto Star Sports Columnist, concerning the current plight of the Raptors:

Kings embarrass slumping Raptors 113-90 [Thu Mar 11 2010]

… the Raptors lost their seventh game in eight, 113-90, with a woefully heartless performance against a team they should have defeated.

Outscored by an astounding 43-23 in a listless third quarter that saw Toronto’s five-point halftime lead turn into a deep hole, the Raptors never recovered.

“We got very selfish,” said Jay Triano, the Toronto coach. “We had guys come down, take a shot, and I guess other guys are not happy because they don’t touch the ball. We miss the shot, it gets rebounded, and it’s fast-break points. And it’s a 10-0 run before you know it. And we cave after that.

[#1]“It’s part of the resolve we need to have. When a team goes on a run, we need to be able to come back and snuff it out by scoring points.”

A night after the Toronto locker room spoke of being encouraged by its feat of holding the defending champion Lakers to 45% field-goal shooting, albeit in a 109-107 loss, the Toronto defence laid down to allow the home team to shoot a remarkable 75% in the third frame, and 51% for the game. In those 12 minutes after halftime, a game was turned on its head. [#2] While Toronto had owned the trenches in the first half, outscoring Sacramento 32-22 down low at halftime, the Kings drove the lane and ran the floor without resistance in the third quarter, scoring 24 points in the paint to Toronto’s 4 while out-rebounding Toronto 13-4.

“Our body language at the start of the second half wasn’t very good. They came out and they went on a run … We never were able to get back into a groove after that,” said Antoine Wright, the reserve swingman. [#3] “That’s when the selfish play came in. Guys started holding onto the ball a little bit longer. I’m guilty of it as well as everybody else.”

Indeed, with two of Toronto’s top three point producers, Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu, continuing to struggle in the wake of respective ankle injuries, Toronto’s offence — a stagnant, selfish concoction that managed just 15 assists on Wednesday — couldn’t compensate for the deficiencies. [#4] Bosh was limited to 14 points on 6-for-20 shooting. Turkoglu was even worse, making just 2 of his 8 shots for 6 points.

“I would love to come in and play the ball I was playing before I turned my ankle. But it’s not like that,” said Bosh. “I’m trying to get back into the same mode I was in. It’s hard right now. I’m going to get there soon. We’re just at a tough stretch right now.

“It’s just getting a feel for the game. [#5] I missed a lot of easy shots today, shots I feel I should make, especially 15 feet and in. I can’t say much about that. They just went out. I don’t get too down about it. I know those shots are going to be there. There’s still plenty of basketball left to play. I just have to step up and make sure I play some decent defence and get some rebounds, and I can help this team out a lot more.”

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Lapses leave Raptors coach to make tough choices [Fri Mar 12 2010]

… there is clearly much more to Toronto’s poor play than a rusty return by Bosh and the comatose Hedo Turkoglu. And certainly, at the very least, there is this: [#6] Triano is employing a flabby rotation that continues to tolerate repeated lapses from unfocused players who would be, under a less sympathetic coach, riding the pine.

“You’ve got to take away some of the freedom around here, what guys have,” said Wright, offering the coaching staff some unsolicited advice. “(The players’) leash is not going to be as loose as it’s been. If you’re not doing what (the team) needs you to do, you’re going to have to come out of the game. That’s the only way to address (the situation) right now at this point in the season.”

[#7] Wright’s agenda has been no secret from the beginning of training camp, when he began lobbying for the spot in the starting lineup still occupied by rookie DeMar DeRozan. DeRozan has long been underperforming on defence, where he is known for a wandering attention to detail. (Go figure that he was the only Raptor to play all 12 minutes of Wednesday’s disastrous third quarter, wherein the Kings shot an astounding 75 per cent from the field and outscored Toronto by a season-high spread 43-23.) [#8] So as shameless as his campaigning has been, inserting Wright into the first five is perhaps the simplest way to jostle the Raptors out of their current slumber.

But long-time NBA observers might also humbly suggest that Triano might think about making some additional hard choices, and soon, specifically by [#9a] paring down the rotation as the regular season’s 19-game home stretch continues Saturday and Sunday at Golden State and Portland. Amir Johnson and Reggie Evans, for instance, have been largely splitting minutes as the off-the-bench energy guy. [#9b] Neither has been particularly effective and Evans has been downright sullen occupying half a role.

[#9c] There’s a glut of reserve twos and threes in Wright, Marco Belinelli, Sonny Weems and, occasionally, Jose Calderon, most of whom can never be sure when and how long he’ll play on any given night.

[#9d] Conventional NBA wisdom says a lack of role definition is bad for morale. And even if that concern is sometimes overblown – these guys should be adaptable – there’s evidence it’s not helping here.

Triano spoke of seeing players pouting Wednesday and he linked the discontent to poor shot selection and a lack of ball movement. Jarrett Jack, the starting point guard, took issue with Triano’s view of the situation – pointing out that what is being construed as selfish play is simply the execution of Triano’s long-stated philosophy that every player should, as his first option, look to score.

“I don’t think guys were selfish. Obviously we encourage people to take shots when they think they have ‘em,” Jack said. “Maybe coach can elaborate on it if that’s what he saw. I didn’t see it that way.”

[#10a] So the hung heads and poor body language, if you read between the lines of the locker-room murmuring, aren’t simply a product of Bosh and Turkoglu forcing the offence. They’re also related to uneven, unpredictable playing time – not to mention the lack of repercussions for the slew of missed defensive assignments racked up by players like DeRozan and Andrea Bargnani on most nights.

Suddenly the conscientious few among the Raptors, calculating that conscientiousness isn’t being rewarded, are taking possessions off. With Toronto one game clear of ninth place, Triano doesn’t have much time to sooth their burn.

[10b] Said Wright: “That’s what our coaching staff is paid for.”

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Here’s the take from this corner.

#1. When an opponent goes on a run the proper way to snuff it out isn’t by just “scoring points,” in return.

The proper way is by:

I. Getting stops on defense.
II. Getting the Defensive Rebound or creating a Turnover.
III. Scoring with an interior basket [either, in transition or the half-court] or from a free throw.  

Until the Raptors organization clearly/fully understands this distinction they are going nowhere fast.

#2. This reality clearly illustrates the importance of:

I. Trench warfare, as a general concept.
II. Getting/stopping easy baskets [i.e. layups] scored in transition situations.
III. Getting/stopping interior baskets [i.e. scores in the paint] and free throws. 
IV. Generating a high percentage of low percentage scoring opportunities for the opponent.
V. Getting a high percentage of available Defensive Rebounds.

Fail to do these things well and your team will lose.

#3. Selfish play, at any level of basketball, is a TEAM killer.

#4. Their 2 best players were a combined 8 for 28 [28.6%] from the field.

When your 2 best players under-perform, on offense, you are going to lose.

#5. When your 2 best players under-perform, on offense, it is often the case that they have not been placed in the proper individual match-up situations, positionally, in order to allow them to operate at their maximum level of efficiency, in terms of offense, defense and rebounding.

This is when seemingly “easy” scoring opportunities are inexplicably “missed” and seemingly “over-matched” individual checks exceed their customary levels of production.

For prime examples in this game, see [A] Chris Bosh vs Carl Landry [i.e. under-sized and too quick for CB4 to dominate], and [B] Hedo Turkoglu vs Donta Greene or Omri Casspi [i.e. too quick and athletic for Turk to handle].

#6. Play more than 8 [or 9, at the most] players in your regular rotation and your team will lose.

#7. Have individual players in your regular rotation with an “agenda” of their own and your team will lose.

#8. The easiest way to solve the Raptors’ deficiencies in attention to detail, re: consistent defensive/rebounding execution, is to remove Andrea Bargnani from their Starting Unit.

As a general principle …

1st unit players should be primarily defensive oriented, with the possible exception of the Point Guard or Off Guard positions.

2nd unit players, on the other hand, can be primarily offensive oriented.

At this point:

- Bargnani is an offensive oriented player, who fits best with the 2nd unit
- Johnson is a defensive oriented player, who fits best with the 1st unit
- DeRozan is neither an offensive nor a defensive oriented player, who should either [i] be used as a Starter or [ii] be removed from the regular rotation altogether.

#9a. An 8-player regular rotation is what’s needed, at this point.

STARTERS: PG + OG + SF + PF + C
KEY SUBS: PG + OG/SF + PF/C

This would provide the team with the highest possible level of GROUP COHESION.

#9b. Reggie Evans needs to be removed from the regular rotation.

There is no place for a “sullen” personality at this level of competition.

#9c. Sonny Weems needs to be used as the OG-SF off the bench.

He is the best combination wing player, who can provide offense, defense and rebounding, when coming off the bench. 

#10a. Mistakes in the composition of the regular rotation are the primary source of the team’s current list of problems. It is the responsiblity of the coaching staff to manage these matters better than they have to this point.

#10b. A muzzle needs to be put on Antoine Wright, and he needs to be completely removed from the regular rotation … or, at least, until he gets this message loudly and clearly.