khandor’s sports blog

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 16 – at Charlotte [Wed Nov 25]

This is a back-2-back game for the Raptors. Although these two line-ups are relatively equivalent, in terms of individual match-up advantages, the additional experience which Raja Bell and Larry Brown have, in comparison with DeMar DeRozan and Jay Triano, respectively, gives Charlotte an edge which should be enough to secure a W in a close game.

Expect the Bobcats to be one of several improved teams in the EC this year battling for a lower tier playoff spot with the Raptors.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 6-10

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PS. This contest holds a high degree of interest, due to the presence of rookies DeMar DeRozan [No. 9/1st Rd, USC, OG-SF], Gerald Henderson [No. 12/1st Rd, Duke, OG-SF] and Derrick Brown [No. 40/2nd Rd, Xavier, PF-SF]. Brown, in particular, was a relatively unheralded player in this year’s NBA Draft who yours truly would have liked to see the Raptors trade down to obtain … in addition to receiving other assets, in exchange for the No. 9 [overall] Selection. Although it is still very early in the process, all three players seem to be acquitting themselves nicely in the NBA.

Two highly interesting points of view …

Steve Kerr – the lost interviews, part I
A mid-April conclusion to the Suns season just leaves more time for second guesses about last season and first suggestions about next season.

Suns General Manager Steve Kerr tackled both departments after a 46-36 that was better than 17 other NBA teams’ records but considered by many as the most disappointing outcome in the league. The season was marred by Leandro Barbosa’s absence and an uncomfortable coaching change early and Amare Stoudemire’s and Barbosa’s injuries later. In between, Kerr shook the team’s core up by trading Boris Diaw, Raja Bell and Sean Singletary to Charlotte for Jason Richardson, Jared Dudley and a 2010 second-round draft pick.

“I don’t see a massive overhaul as being necessary,” Kerr said. “We won 46 games in a season in which we endured a lot of turmoil, from the coaching situation to the injury to Amare to a pretty big trade. We had a lot of change.

“I know all of us in that room feel like that 46 should have been about 52, 53. I have no doubt that this team is a very, very competitive good playoff team. Unfortunately, we didn’t make it. That doesn’t mean we’re going to blow up the team and start over. It also doesn’t mean there couldn’t be some changes. We have to evaluate everything. We could’ve done better. This was not a championship team. This was a very good team that could’ve done better but we have to improve and we have to make improvements this summer.”

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Shaq – the lost interviews, part II
The Suns talked about trading O’Neal at midseason and will explore the idea again. He has made himself a tradeable commodity despite the $20 million price tag ($21 million cap number) and the Suns will be looking to begin to transform itself into a younger team. Part of that redesign could include seeking a center who is more mobile to defend and help defend.

“I realize every summer something might happen,” O’Neal said. “Something will change. I just told Steve (Kerr) that ‘I’ve been under a lot of general managers but no one treated me the way you did,’ ” O’Neal said. “Whatever happens, I understand the business and we all just have to move on. Steve was great. At the trade deadline, he didn’t have to call me and ask me if I wanted to go. A lot of guys would’ve just did it. He promised me if something would go down, that he’d call me and he called me. I love him for that. I respect him for that. I played for a lot of great GMs and he’s up there.”

“How to turn around the fortunes of your pro sports team”, NBA 101 Management Handbook, p. 23.

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Make a legitimate run for the 8th playoff spot in the 2008-2009 season

Add Vladimir Radmanovic [Lakers] in exchange for Adam Morrison

Add DeSagana Diop [Mavs] in exchange for Ryan Hollins & Matt Carroll

Decide NOT to trade Raymond Felton [PG]

Add Raja Bell and Boris Diaw and Sean Singletary [Suns] in exchange for J-Rich & J-Dudley

Add Juwon Howard [as a veteran Big off the bench] from the scrap heap

Decide NOT to trade Sean May AND to sit him on the bench  

Add Cartier Martin [OG/SF] and Dontell Jefferson [OG] from the pool of undrafted players

Add DJ Augustin [as a solid PG] from the 2008 NBA Draft

Add Alexis Ajinca [as a long term project, C] from the 2008 NBA Draft

Decide NOT to trade Gerald Wallace [SF/PF]

Hire Larry Brown to coach your team AND empower him to make trades

Retain Nazr Mohammed [as a solid veteran Big off the bench]

Re-sign Emeka Okafor, your 2004 No. 2 [overall] Draft Pick, as an emotionally stable, hard-working Center, who can Rebound & Defend his position, when others suggested that he was a “bad” long term investment for your team

Hire the most reknowned former player in NBA history to oversee the operation of your franchise [i.e. you know who]

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It’s not rocket science … and, your GM certainly doesn’t NEED to have been named a winner of the NBA’s Executive of the Year Award even one time, during his career to-date.

FINAL SCORE: Raptors 86, BOBCATS 112
Complete Game Info

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It’s becoming comical to see and track just How MUCH BETTER the Raptors are when [1] Chris Bosh plays the Center position, in comparison with [2] the Power Forward position, or [3] when he’s not in the game at all.

Yet, certain fan web sites and on-line voices are now maintaining that the team MIGHT be better off long term if they trade their Captain and continue to re-build their squad around Andrea Bargnani, as their Cornerstone Player … either, as their Starting Center or their Starting Power Forward.

In reality, this option makes little sense … based on the in-game production of these two players, the roles they fulfil for this team and the way in which the Raptors perform when each of them is on the court, either, separately or together.

If you look at the following Substitution Chart, you should be able to see:

* How the Raptors played:

1. With Bosh at Center – 10:51, -1
2. With Bosh at Power Forward – 28:04, -10
3. Without Bosh on the floor at all – 09:05, -15

4. With Bargnani at Center – 34:17, -20
5. With Bargnani at Center AND Bosh at Power Forward – see 2 [above]
6. Without Bargnani on the floor at all – 13:43, -6  

* How the Raptors played with 3 or more Solid Rebounders on the floor, together, in comparison with only 1 or 2 Solid Rebounders on together:

3 Solid Rebounders, -5

PG/Parker + SF/Graham + PF/Mensah-Bonsu + C/Bosh = -1
PG/Parker + SF/Marion + PF/Mensah-Bonsu = -2
SF/Graham + PF/Mensah-Bonsu + C/Bosh = 0
PG/Graham + SF/Marion + PF/Mensah-Bonsu = -2

versus

1 or 2 Solid Rebounders, -21

SF/Marion + PF/Bosh = -11
SF?Marion + PF/Mensah-Bonsu = -4
SF/Graham + PF/Bosh = +1
SF/Graham + PF/Mensah-Bonsu = -7

Moving forward from here, with a 24-44/.353 W-L record, the best available option for the Raptors DOES NOT involve trading Chris Bosh [OPTION ONE] and using Andrea Bargnani as their Cornerstone Player, despite what many delusional Raptors fans and certain other NBA observers might think … but, rather:

OPTION TWO

I. Using Chris Bosh as their Main-Frame Center;

II. Using Shawn Marion as their Starting Power Forward AND Back-up Small Forward;

III. Using Joey Graham as their Main-frame Small Forward;

IV. Using Anthony Parker as their Starting Off Guard AND Back-up Point Guard;

V. Using Jose Calderon as their Main-Frame Point Guard;

VI. Using Andrea Bargnani as their Back-up Center;

VII. Using Pops Mensah-Bonsu as their Back-up Power Forward;

VIII. Using Jason Kapono as their Back-up Off Guard [or Back-up Small Forward];

IX. Not using any of their other players, except in emergency situations.

X. Adding a solid young, athletic, multi-dimensional player in the 2009 NBA Lottery;

XII. Re-signing Shawn Marion to a manageable contract extension, or signing a comparable or better UFA [e.g. Hedo Turkoglu]; 

XIII. Solidifying their Head Coach position;

XIV. Making the 2009-2010 Eastern Conference Playoffs; and,

XV. Re-signing Chris Bosh to a Maximum Contract Extension.

OPTION THREE

I. Trading Andrea Bargnani … in exchange for a more multi-dimensional “No. 2″ player, e.g. like Rudy Gay [OG/SF/PF];

II. See the remainder of OPTION TWO [above].

Rebounding, Team Defense and Shared Team Offense are the 3 main phases of Basketball and it is extremely difficult … if not impossible … for a team to function at a High End level with a Main-Frame Center that is not at least an above-average performer in the first two categories because of the other subsequent adjustments THIS FACT alone forces upon the other four [4] positions on your team, on a possession-by-possession basis.

Actually, it’s a super interesting process …

Whither the Suns: An Update

gradually becoming more and more active on-line, in a variety of different places.

What a difference a year makes … when you add a new head coach to a veteran team.

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Suns starting Barnes at small forward
“Grant brings a lot to that second unit with a lot of stability as a veteran with possibly two rookies on that second unit,” Porter said. “He can relieve some of the pressure that Goran (Dragic) may get at times and I like Grant to have the ball in his hands. That’s one of his strong points – to make decisions and make plays.”

With the goal to limit Hill to about 25 minutes per game, Hill would have sat for long stints if he started. Instead, he must adjust to a bench role after doing it only eight times in a 705-game career.

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Those who under-estimate the Phoenix Suns this season will be in for a rude awakening, both, in the regular season and at playoff time … given:

i) This new role for Grant Hill;
ii) A reduced role for Shaquille O’Neal;
iii) The additions of Matt Barnes, Alando Tucker, Robin Lopez, Goran Dragic, Sean Singletary & Louis Amundson; and,
iv) The arrival of Terry Porter, with his focus on Rebounding, Defense & Team Offense.

If they eventually fall this season, sometime in May … let’s say, to the Lakers’ juggernaut, it will not be because they are once again ill-equipped to go the distance as they’ve been in seasons past under the premise of Seven Seconds or Less.

Thus far, every decision the Steve Kerr/Terry Porter tandem has made, in an effort to re-tool their once mis-directed team, has moved the Suns closer to realizing their long term goal of reaching and then winning the NBA Finals Series.

For the 1st time since the 1995-1996 season, this team has the type of Marquee Players, QUALITY DEPTH throughout the roster, Coaching & Style of Play it takes to be considered a Legitimate Contender for the League Championship.

Further to: Whither the Suns in the Western Conference 

A report yesterday indicates that a new ‘Starting 5′ is on the way, in Phoenix, this season …

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Barnes expected to start; Hill to come off the bench
“ … in a roundabout way, Matt Barnes adds depth to the team, as he will be starting and Grant Hill will move to the bench this season.

This last point just about floored everyone in attendance [at the Suns' Fantasy Camp], but it sounds like this is what Coach Porter and Hill want to do [according to Suns' President Rick Welts, who addressed the campers directly].”

======================

If accurate … it’s another step in the right direction for the Suns, by the Terry Porter/Steve Kerr tandem, as the following new line-up:

STARTERS:
1 – Nash
2 - Bell
3 - Barnes
4 - Stoudemire
5 - O’Neal

SUBS:
1 – Singeletary
1 - Dragic
1/2 – Leandro Barbosa
2/3 – Hill
3/2 – Tucker
4/3 – Diaw
4 – Amundson
5 – Lopez

is a better balanced set-up than Mike D’Antoni’s prior alternative versions.

UPDATE: Confirmation that Grant Hill would be on-board with this proposed shift in Phoenix. [Wed Sep 24 2008]

At the beginning of last season, this corner forecast the precipatous decline of ‘Seven Seconds or Less‘ … and then went on to proclaim early-on that, after 3 years at-or-near the top of the Western Conference, knocking on the door of the NBA Finals, Phoenix WOULD NOT EVEN MAKE IT OUT OF THE 1st ROUND OF THE PLAYOFFS LAST SEASON …

* NBA Playoffs Preview [2007-2008]
* Legitimate Contenders in the NBA: Part IV
* Eclipse of The Suns: An Update
* Hubris, The Big Aristotle and the Phoenix Suns
* Eclipse of the Suns

which is precisely what happened.

==========================

Looking back on 2007-2008 …

Q1. What exactly did the Suns accomplish, since the start of last season?
A1. By …

* Replacing Mike D’Antoni with Steve Kerr [former PG with the Bulls & Spurs]
* Adding Grant Hill [6-8, 225]
* Replacing Shawn Marion [6-7, 230] with Shaquille O’Neal [7-1, 325]
* Replacing Mike D’Antoni with Terry Porter [former PG with the Blazers]
* Retaining & then elevating Alando Tucker [6-6, 205]
* Adding Robin Lopez [7-0, 255], Matt Barnes [6-7, 226], Goran Dragic [6-4, 180], Sean Singletary [6-0, 185] and Louis Amundson [6-9, 225]

they’ve changed the entire culture of the organization … AND dramatically improved their chances of returning to the upper echelon of the Western Conference next season and beyond.

That’s what they’ve done in Phoenix over the last 12 months.

Whereas, last year at this time, the Suns were an ALL OFFENSE, NO DEFENSE & POOR REBOUNDING team, using a bandjo-tight 8-man rotation … with almost no legit chance to ever win four [4] consecutive series in the NBA playoffs [what it takes to claim the title!] … as they head to training camp this year … this is NO LONGER the eternal and/or external make-up of this team.

THIS TEAM, this season … with the line-up it can now put on the floor, night-in and night-out:

STARTERS
1 – Nash [6-3, 178]
2 – Bell [6-5, 215]
3 – Hill
4 – Stoudemire [6-10, 249] 
5 – Shaq
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KEY BENCH SUBS
1 – Singletary [or Dragic]
2/1 – Barbosa [6-3, 202]
3/2 – Tucker [or Barnes]
4/3 – Diaw [6-8, 235] [or Amundson]
5 – Lopez
————-
RESERVES
1 – Dragic [or Singletary]
3 – Barnes [or Tucker]
4 – Amundson
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HEALTHY SCRATCHES
3 – Piatkowski [?]
4/5 – Marks [?]

is as deep and athletically talented as any other outfit in the Western Conference,

this side of the LA Lakers, and

has a solid chance to return to the Western Conference Playoffs … WITH a legit opportunity to win a round or two and, possibly, advancing to the WC Finals, once again … as an upper echelon team, in the NBA.

By returning the focus in Phoenix to what makes for a championship calibre product, in this League … i.e. a commitment to REBOUNDING, Team Defense and a Balanced [higly structured] Team Offense … Steve Kerr may have accomplished in just one season at the helm something which Jerry Colangelo, Bryan Colangelo & Mike D’Antoni [before him] were NOT able to do over the course of their careers in the ‘Valley of the Sun’ … i.e. transform this team into a LEGITIMATE CONTENDER for an NBA championship … i.e. please see, What it takes to win the NBA Championship.

Which is not an easy feat … working for an owner with the reputation of one Robert Sarver.

Q2. Could it be … ‘The Rising of a New Sun[s] in Phoenix‘ this season? 
A2. Yes, Sir, indeed … it just might be that exact thing.

In his heart-of-hearts, 5-time NBA Champion, part owner & GM, Steve Kerr knows that Phoenix, as constituted … playing the “style” of basketball advocated by Head Coach, Mike D’Antoni, i.e. Offense first & foremost; Defense & Rebounding distant after-thoughts … has absolutely zero (“0”) chance of ever winning an NBA championship.

What it takes to win the NBA Championship 

But … should he actually decide to trade Shawn Marion & Marcus Banks to the Miami Heat for Shaquille O’Neal … what he’d be doing for this franchise would be mortgaging the Suns’ foreseeable future for a chance to win it all in the next 2 years. 

Suns will regret trading for Shaq

Shaquille O’Neal is a venerable and accomplished Center in the annuls of the NBA – a veritable legend – who was once THE Dominant Force in the League but who, unfortunately, can no longer play the game at that same level today: 

SEASON AVERAGES

Season	Team	G	GS	MPG	FG%	3p%	FT%	OFF	DEF	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	TO	PF	PPG
07-08	MIA	32	32	28.5	0.581	0.000	0.482	3.0	4.8	7.8	1.4	0.6	1.7	2.91	4.00	14.2
Career		1013	1004	36.4	0.580	0.050	0.524	3.8	7.7	11.5	2.7	0.6	2.4	2.86	3.50	25.6

That said, however, if inserted into the Suns’ revamped line-up, thus:

Starters

Steve Nash, PG

Raja Bell, OG

Grant Hill, SF

Amare Stoudamire, PF

Shaq, C

Key Bench Players

Leandro Barbosa, G

D.J. Strawberry, G
Alando Tucker, G
Eric Piatkowski, G-F
Boris Diaw, F

Sean Marks, F-C

Brian Skinner, C

and, permitted to play within a conventional “style” of NBA basketball, e.g. similar to what Steve Nash was required to play when he teamed with Dirk Nowitzki, in Dallas, which took their team to the Western Conference Finals …

How good would Shaquille O’Neal really have to be – and, For how many minutes a night? – in order to, instantaneously, re-make the Phoenix Suns into a PRIME FORCE in the NBA for the next two years (the length of his current contract)?

Hmmmmmmmm … 14.2 PPG; 7.8 RPG; 1.4 APG; 1.7 BPG … in combination with Nash (a 2-time MVP), Bell, Hill (a multi-time All-Star) & Stoudemire (a multi-time All-Star), supported by Barbosa, Strawberry, Tucker, Piatkowski, Diaw, Marks & Skinner.

The so-called ‘basketball experts’ who feel that Steve Kerr doesn’t know what he’s doing, should he decide to complete this trade … are doing nothing more than MOURNING the LOSS of what THEY BELIEVE to be the Avant Garde way The Game SHOULD be played (in their eyes) in the NBA today … i.e. delivering “fast-paced & highly entertaining” basketball to the masses … which is what the Suns have done since the 2004-2005 season.

But Steve Kerr, if you asked him … would be only glad to say, “Forget that … I Want To Win My 6^th NBA Championship … Nothing More and Nothing Less; Avant Garde basketball be damned! … and, this move, right here, is the BEST WAY for me to make this happen with this team, under the current landscape (i.e. after the Lakers acquired Pau Gasol).”

Full Speed Ahead, Mr. Kerr! … it’s the only chance you’ve got to successfully fend off challenges from the other top teams in the Western Conference, i.e. the San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers, and the Portland Trail Blazers, over the next decade.

Carpe Diem!