Monday, September 28th, 2009
re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year
The first back-2-back of the season for the Raptors will be a difficult one to win. In general, whichever team gets the best player in a NBA trade will eventually be seen as “the winner” in that specific transaction. In this instance, Dallas won the 4-team player swap of the summer by acquiring Shawn Marion, who is a flat-out better player than Hedo Turkoglu. Shifting Dirk Nowitzki to the Center position this season will present the Mavericks with their best possible 5-Man Unit, allowing Josh Howard and The Matrix to co-exist as interchangeable #3/SF-#4/PF’s, in an under-sized line-up that is going to be very difficult for opponents to match-up against, given their ability to rebound ball with their superior athleticism. Rookie PG, Rodrigue Beaubois has the makings of a future “star” in the NBA, and it will be very interesting to see whether or not the Mavs choose to integrate him into their line-up this season with J-Kidd, Jason Terry and JJ Barea still on their roster. The Mavs are going to be a very good team this season and a tough out in the WC playoffs.
Game 6– @ Dallas [Sat Nov 07]
|
RAPTORS
|
ADV
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MAVS
|
|
PG
|
Calderon
|
=
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OG
|
Terry
|
|
OG
|
DeRozan *
|
=
|
PG
|
Kidd
|
|
SF
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Turkoglu $^
|
à
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SF
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Howard
|
|
PF
|
Bosh
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=
|
PF
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Marion $^
|
|
C
|
Bargnani
|
à
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C
|
Nowitzki
|
|
|
|
|
|
PG
|
Jack #
|
ß
|
PG
|
Barea
|
|
OG
|
Belinelli ^
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=
|
OG
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Ross $
|
|
SF
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Wright ^
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=
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SF
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Thomas $
|
|
PF
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Evans ^
|
=
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PF
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Gooden $
|
|
C
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Nesterovic $
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=
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C
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Dampier
|
|
|
|
|
|
G/F
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Douby
|
=
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G/F
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Singleton $R
|
|
PF
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Johnson ^
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=
|
F
|
Humphries ^
|
|
|
|
|
|
HC
|
Triano
|
à
|
HC
|
Carlisle
|
|
|
|
|
|
+1
|
OUTCOME
|
+3
|
|
Legend: ADV – Individual match-up advantage; * - 2009 NBA Draftee; ^ - Acquired via trade; # – Restricted free agent; #M – Restricted free agent, matched offer; $ – Unrestricted free agent; $R – Unrestricted free agent, re-signed; $^ – Acquired via Sign & Trade; Italics – Returning player.
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Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 2-4
Tags: Amir Johnson, Andrea Bargnani, Antoine Wright, Chris Bosh, Dallas Mavericks, Dirk Nowitzki, Drew Gooden, Erik Dampier, Hedo Turkoglu, Jarrett Jack, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Jay Triano, JJ Barea, Jose Calderon, Josh Howard, Kris Humphries, Marco Belinelli, Quincy Douby, Quinton Ross, Rasho Nesterovic, Reggie Evans, Rick Carlisle, Rodrigue Beaubois, Sean Singleton, Shawn Marion, Tim Thomas, Toronto Raptors
Posted in Analytics, Basketball, NBA | No Comments »
Friday, July 10th, 2009
Prior to the recent transaction between the Raptors [Bryan Colangelo], Mavericks [Donnie Nelson], Magic [Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik] and Grizzlies [Chris Wallace], this is what each of those team’s rosters looked like:
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ROSTERS BEFORE 4-TEAM TRADE
|
|
No
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RAPTORS
|
MAVERICKS
|
MAGIC
|
GRIZZLIES
|
|
1
2
3
4
5
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Calderon
Parker–UFA
Marion–UFA
Bosh
Bargnani
|
Kidd
Wright
Howard
Nowitzki
Dampier
|
Nelson
Carter
Turkoglu–UFA
Lewis
Howard
|
Conley
Mayo
Gay
Warrick–RFA
Gasol
|
|
6
7
8
9
10
|
Ukic
Douby
DeRozan–R
Evans
O’Bryant
|
Barea
Terry
George
Bass–UFA
Hollins–RFA
|
Johnson
Redick
Pietrus
Anderson
Gortat–RFA
|
Jaric
Richardson
Young–R
Arthur
Thabeet–R
|
|
11
12
|
Banks
Humphries
|
Carroll
Singleton–UFA
|
Richardson–RFA
|
Miles
Haddadi
|
|
13
14
15
16
17
|
Delfino–RFA
Jawai
M-Bonsu–RFA
|
Beaubois–R
Ross
Williams
Nivins–R
Stackhouse
|
|
Carroll–R
|
|
TPE
|
Adams $0.7 M
Kapono $1.1 M
Moon $0.7 M
Solomon $0.7 M
|
|
Dooling $2.0 M
Wilks $0.8 M
|
|
Coming out the other side, today, this is what they look like now, respectively:
|
ROSTERS AFTER 4-TEAM TRADE
|
|
No
|
RAPTORS
|
MAVERICKS
|
MAGIC
|
GRIZZLIES
|
|
1
2
3
4
5
|
Calderon
Wright
Turkoglu
Bosh
Bargnani
|
Kidd
Howard
Marion
Nowitzki
Dampier
|
Nelson
Carter
Pietrus
Lewis
Howard
|
Conley
Mayo
Gay
Warrick–RFA
Gasol
|
|
6
7
8
9
10
|
Ukic
DeRozan–R
George
Evans
O’Bryant
|
Barea
Terry
Ross
Bass–UFA
Hollins–RFA
|
Johnson
Redick
Richardson–RFA
Anderson
Gortat–RFA
|
Jaric
Richardson
Young–R
Arthur
Thabeet–R
|
|
11
12
|
Banks
Delfino–RFA
|
Carroll
Singleton–UFA
|
|
Miles
Haddadi
|
|
13
14
15
|
M-Bonsu–RFA
|
Beaubois–R
Williams
Humphries
|
|
Carroll–R
|
|
16
17
|
|
Nivins–R
Jawai
|
|
|
|
TPE
|
Adams $0.7 M
Kapono $1.1 M
Moon $0.7 M
Solomon $0.7 M
|
|
Dooling $2.0 M
Wilks $0.8 M
Turkoglu $7.0 M
|
|
|
DP
|
|
|
|
2nd Rounder,
Tor/2016
|
|
CC
|
|
|
|
From Dallas
From Toronto
|
Legend:
UFA – Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA – Restricted Free Agent; R – Rookie Player; TPE – Traded Player Exception; DP – Draft Pick; CC - Cash Considerations
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The Perspective From This Corner
|
IMPROVEMENT TO ROSTER SITUATION
|
|
TEAM
|
MINUS
|
ADD
|
NET GAIN
|
|
MAVERICKS
|
Wright
George
Stackhouse
|
Marion
Buckner
Humphries
Jawai
|
Substantial improvement. i.e. Marion is the best overall player in the deal [+]. Period. Humphries is a serviceable Big [+]. Jawai is a reserve [0]. Buckner will be cut. Stackhouse was inactive. George was a reserve. Wright was a pseudo-Starter only.
RESULT: ++ Gain
|
|
MAGIC
|
Turkoglu
|
TPE $7.0-to-10.0 M
|
Zero immediate improvement, i.e. Add Carter; Lose Turkoglu [0] … BUT with a gigantic CAVEAT. Now have $7.0-to-10.0 M worth of TPE’s [+], should they be in contention for a championship this coming season, in an effort to push them over the final hurdle. A Commitment To Winning It All.
RESULT: 0|+ Gain
|
|
RAPTORS
|
Parker
Marion
Humphries
Jawai
|
Wright
Turkoglu
George
|
Marginal improvement, only. i.e. Parker is a better player than Wright [-]. Turkoglu is a better clutch player than Marion [+], but Marion is a better player overall and a lot more athletic [-]. George and Humphries are even.
Turkoglu commitment provides stability at #3/SF [+]
RESULT: >> 0 Gain
|
|
GRIZZLIES
|
Buckner
|
CC [?]
|
Almost Zero improvement. CC plus a 2nd Round Draft Pick way, way off in the distance.
RESULT: > 0 Gain
|
The fact is, however, that the Cleveland Cavaliers [Danny Ferry] MAY have benefitted most of all from this specific transaction, as they subsequently gained unfettered access to Anthony Parker, the exact sort of complementary wing player they were searching for … to augment LeBron James & Co., in an effort to win their 1st NBA Championship.
Your feedback is welcome in the “Comments” section. 
Tags: Ahmad Nivins, Andrea Bargnani, Anthony Johnson, Anthony Parker, Antoine Wright, Brandon Bass, Bryan Colangelo, Carlos Delfino, Chris Bosh, Chris Wallace, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Danny Ferry, Darius Miles, Darrell Arthur, Dave Twardzik, DeMarre Carroll, Devean George, Dirk Nowitzki, Donnie Nelson, Dwight Howard, Erick Dampier, Hakim Warrick, Hamed Haddadi, Hasheem Thabeet, Hassan Adams, Hedo Turkoglu, Jamario Moon, Jameer Nelson, James Singleton, Jason Kapono, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Jeremy Richardson, Jerry Stackhouse, JJ Barea, JJ Redick, Jose Calderon, Josh Howard, Keyon Dooling, Kris Humphries, Lebron James, Marc Gasol, Marcin Gortat, Marcus Banks, Marko Jaric, Matt Carroll, Memphis Grizzlies, Mickael Pietrus, Mike Conley, Mike Wilks, Nathan Jawai, OJ Mayo, Orlando Magic, Otis Smith, Patrick O'Bryant, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Quentin Richardson, Quincy Douby, Quinton Ross, Rashard Lewis, Reggie Evans, Rodrigue Beaubois, Roko Ukic, Rudy Gay, Ryan Anderson, Ryan Hollins, Sam Young, Shawn Marion, Shawne Williams, Toronto Raptors, Vince Carter, Will Solomon
Posted in Analytics, Basketball, NBA | 36 Comments »
