khandor’s sports blog

Last season the Raptors finished 4th in the Atlantic Division and 13th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 33-49/402].

Offensively, they scored 99.0 Points Per Game [16th in the NBA].
Defensively, they allowed 101.9 Points Per Game [20th in the NBA].
In terms of Points Scored Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -2.9 [23rd in the NBA].  
In terms of Rebounding Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -1.5 [22nd in the NBA].

Thus far, this season, Toronto is:

* 2nd in the Atlantic Division and 10th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 7-11/.389];

* 4th in Points Scored Per Game [104.9]

* 29th in Points Allowed Per Game [109.4]

* 23rd in Points Scored Differential Per Game [-4.4]

* 20th in Rebounding Differential Per Game [-0.4] 

How much is the roster really improved for the 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors, compared with the 2008-2009 version?

The main problem the Raptors have right now is rooted in the Basketball Philosophy of its Management Team which continues to place far too much emphasis on the Individual Offensive ability of specific players and not nearly enough emphasis on those same players’ Individual Defensive ability.

Until the Raptors add more multi-dimensional players to their roster with the ability to defend their position[s] effectively AND reward those players with additional playing time during important parts of games, Toronto will continue to be little more than a high scoring [entertaining?] Treadmill Team.

There is nothing wrong with the rigid defensive philosophy which Jay Triano is using this season for the Toronto Raptors, i.e. to force baseline and protect the paint. In today’s NBA, this is actually standard fair and is used by other good teams, as well [e.g. Miami Heat, 6-1].

So, too, however, was there little wrong with the flexible defensive philosophy used for the previous 4 seasons by Sam Mitchell, former Raptors’ head coach, which required game-to-game [possession-to-possession?] adjustments based on the specific strengths or weaknesses of the team’s opponents.

The Raptors’ main defensive problems are not rooted in the team’s philosophy, per se, but are based on the specific short-comings of their individual players … several of whom should NOT have been expected to be able to play first rate defense this season by anyone with a sound grasp of how the game actually works in the NBA.

When your team has a roster that looks like THAT ↑↑↑, and struggles to DEFEND and REBOUND effectively:

Points Differential Rank, #18
Points Allowed Rank, #28
Rebounding Differential Rank, #26
Opponent’s FG% Rank, #23

the primary responsibility lies, not with the head coach or the individual players, but with the architect[s] of the team.

On an annual basis, the very best franchises in the NBA place their emphasis on Acquiring and Retaining individual players who advance the cause of their squad by contributing a great more than just scoring points.

When you look at the list of teams that have achieved major success in the history of the NBA:

NBA Finals: All-Time Champions

2009 NBA Champions, Los Angeles Lakers, QIR #6
2008 NBA Champions, Boston Celtics, QIR #1
2007 NBA Champions, San Antonio Spurs, QIR #2
2006 NBA Champions, Miami Heat, QIR #3
2005 NBA Champions, San Antonio Spurs, QIR #1 [tie]
2004 NBA Champions, Detroit Pistons, QIR #1
2003 NBA Champions, San Antonio Spurs, QIR #1
2002 NBA Champions, Los Angeles Lakers, QIR #4
2001 NBA Champions, Los Angeles Lakers, QIR #9

What it takes to win the NBA Championship [QIR definition]

it should be plain to see how placing an inordinant value on the “offensive” contributions made by any individual player is Fool’s Gold.

Related:

Where and how exactly Toronto lost last night at San Antonio

Orlando Magic 125
TORONTO RAPTORS 116
[Sun Nov 01 2009]

Box Score Info

Crucial Sequence, Play-By-Play

Crucial Sequence, Substitution Chart

Gruesome Details

1. Orlando played without Vince Carter [Starting Off Guard], Mickael Pietrus [Starting Small Forward] and Rashard Lewis [Starting Power Forward].

2. Between the end of the 1st Quarter [36-28] and the 7:03 mark of the 2nd Quarter, Orlando opened up a 22 point lead [54-32].

3. The Raptors players who were on the floor for this specific segment of the game were:

PG – Jarrett Jack [3:57, -14]
OG – Marco Belinelli [3:44, -9]; Antoine Wright [1:13, -5]
SF – Antoine Wright [3:44, -9]; Hedo Turkoglu [1:13, -5]
PF – Chris Bosh [3:14, -7]; Amir Johnson [1:43, -7]
C – Rasho Nesterovic [3:14, -7]; Andrea Bargnani [1:43, -7]

4. There are good reasons why Indiana, Golden State, Dallas, Milwaukee and Orlando each chose not to retain the services of Misters Jack, Belinelli, Wright, Johnson and Turkoglu, respectively, this past summer AND the Raptors need to seriously consider limiting the floor time given to Andrea Bargnani this season.

Instead of placing blame for this loss on a player like Jose Calderon [PG] … whose specific strengths and weaknesses were well-known two seasons ago when he first won the Starting PG job over incumbent TJ Ford … accusing fingers in Raptorville should be pointing in an entirely different direction, i.e. at the architect[s] of the team.

——————————

PS. Raptors fans were told in the summer which specific teams SHOULD have been viewed, both, at the time and down-the-road, as the BIGGEST winners in the four-team [blockbuster?] trade between Toronto [1-2], Memphis [1-2], Dallas [2-1] and Orlando [3-0]. Shame on you, if you were one of those who chose NOT to listen back then.

PPS. Yes, the 2009-2010 regular season is only 3 games old for the Raptors, but … when you look closely at the first 20 games on their schedule … it doesn’t get any easier for Toronto until the 2nd week of December.

Related:

When three birds of a different feather flock together it’s a poor omen for the Raptors

According to published reports, Toronto will use the the following line-up for this evening’s first game of the regular season [at home vs Cleveland]:

* - Solid rebounder at this position. 

The final standings in the Eastern Conference this season will most likely feature an exceptionally close finish between the No. 6 and No. 12 positions, as every team below the top 3 entries … i.e. Boston, Cleveland and Orlando, aka, Tier One … may be capable of playing well enough to legitimately compete for the 8th playoff position. 

———————————

Q1. What do the Raptors need to do in oder to give themselves the best possible chance of being in the playoff hunt for the entire season?

A1. Play their best players at their best positions AND set aside the damaged egos of those in the organization who still believe that former 2006 No. 1 [overall] Draft Pick, Andrea Bargnani [7-0, 250], has done enough, to point this in his NBA career, to warrant designation as the team’s Starting Center, in place of Chris Bosh [6-10, 230].

If the Raptors eventually use the following line-up, instead, this season:

* - Solid rebounder at this position. 

which provides better balance overall for their team, by improving the Rebounding and Defense of their starting unit AND the Offensive fire-power coming from their bench …

they will give themselves the best chance possible to:

1. Make the playoffs;
2. Earn a Top 6 seed;
3. Win their 1st Round series; and,
4. RETAIN the services of their lone All-Star, Chris Bosh, when he exercises his right to pursue unrestricted free agency next summer.

The major problems with this year’s Raptors team …

i. Relatively poor Rebounding;
ii. Poor Transition Defense; and,
iii. Very poor Pick & Roll/Pop Defense;

———————————
For the importance of ii. and iii. …

The Second Big Man
Transition defense is a very important part of the NBA game. It’s one of the two most important areas of defense; the other is pick and roll defense. Every team spends a tremendous amount of time on these areas, and Stopping these two areas of the game is what leads teams to very successful seasons.
———————————

… can all be overcome effectively by reducing [not increasing] the role of Andrea Bargnani [C, 7-0, 250] and using him properly, for the first time since his rookie season, as the primary back-up for Chris Bosh [C, 6-10, 230].

Hopefully, the Raptors’ brain-trust [i.e. Bryan Colangelo, Maurizio Gherardini, Jay Triano & Co.] is able to figure this out, sooner rather than later.

Related:

NBA secret scout nails description of Bargnani

For the benefit of those who may not have read it yet …

Can Toronto Build a Winner Around Bosh
When we put the entire picture together, it doesn’t look too good for fans of Toronto.  The Raptors will still employ the services of Calderon and Bosh, and these players produced about 21 wins last year.  And it’s possible that Turkoglu, Jack, Evans, and Johnson can contribute another 15 wins.  After these players, though, who else is going to produce significant quantity of wins?  And if no one else produces much, how will Bosh believe that the Raptors are building a contender?

———————————

is a first-rate take by David Berri on the Raptors’ current situation.

Since his arrival in the NBA, 6 seasons ago, Chris Bosh has firmly established himself as one of the very best Big Men in the League … with an individual game that’s unique, as an under-sized Center, and in need of support from a group of talented teammates. Unfortunately, what has also happened during this same time-frame, repeatedly, is that the team’s ownership group [i.e. MLSE] and upper management have demonstrated an inability to make sound basketball-related decisions around him, based on an over-riding Plan of Attack geared toward the building of a championship-winning calibre team in Toronto, through the proper acquisition and retention of Top Notch NBA talent, which includes executives, coaches, support staff and players.

Understanding exactly what the Boston Celtics actually did 3 summers ago to transform their team into a legitimate title contender:

———-

1. Retain the services of a very good and already-proven NBA head coach;
2. Hold onto their already-established franchise player [i.e. Paul Pierce];
3. Trade an upcoming top draft pick for a 2nd established franchise player [i.e. Ray Allen];
4. Include their younger burgeoning talent [i.e. i. Al Jefferson, ii. Ryan Gomes, and iii. Sebastien Telfair] in a major trade for a 3rd “stud” player [i.e. The Big Ticket];
5. Keep a bedrock player like Kendrick Perkins [C], as a building block for their future team;
6. Draft another young stud at the PG position [i.e. Rajon Rondo], who other teams over-looked/under-valued; and, then,
7. Filled out the remainder of its roster with very serviceable players with great attitudes who were committed to winning a championship above all else.

———-

means that all is NOT lost for the Raptors, as long as they begin to identify accurately what their actual strengths and weaknesses are, relative to their competition.

What “regular Raptors fans” need to do is spend some more time figuring out who on their team fits properly into the corresponding roles of Wyc Grousbeck [i.e. MLSE?], Danny Ainge [i.e. Bryan Colangelo?], Doc Rivers [i.e. Jay Triano?], Paul Pierce [i.e. Chris Bosh!] and Ray Allen [?], Kevin Garnett [?], and Al Jefferson [i.e. Andrea Bargnani!!!], etc., and less time putting down the 5th best player in the brief history of the team [i.e. CB4] and his designated running mate [i.e. El Matador].

———————————

PS. Those who think that Danny Ainge [GM] was operating without an over-riding Plan of Attack, based on his Basketball Acumen, simply do not know how the NBA actually works, or how a team needs to go about building a championship-winning organization, at the highest level of competition.

Yet another reason to like the job which Otis Smith [GM] has done, thus far?

NBA Countdown: No. 8 Orlando Magic
Reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 14 years and second in franchise history was a wonderful accomplishment for the Orlando Magic-but there was no guarantee a championship would follow.The Magic will go into the 2009-10 season determined to defend their Eastern Conference title but looking different than when they won it. Yes, they still have All-Star center Dwight Howard as their foundation and high-priced Rashard Lewis (who’s suspended the first 10 games of the season after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level) shooting 3-pointers, but the Magic changed their late-game, go-to guy by switching from Turkoglu to Carter.

It’s why general manager Otis Smith didn’t take any bows, or even take the time to catch his breath.

And it’s also why he made one of the boldest moves of the summer, changing his carefully crafted team chemistry by trading for All-Star Vince Carter and letting go of free agent Hedo Turkoglu, a key player in Orlando’s recent rise.

“You can’t stand still in this league,” Smith said. “If you do, you’ll be going backward.”

The Magic also added free agents in power forward Brandon Bass from Dallas and small forward Matt Barnes of Phoenix. They even added point guard Jason Williams, who last played during 2007-08 with the Heat. Surprisingly, they kept backup center Marcin Gortat by matching the offer sheet Dallas gave him.

With the Celtics adding Rasheed Wallace and the Cavaliers trading for Shaquille O’Neal, the Magic tried to keep pace with the other serious contenders in the East.

“There are less than seven teams every year that really are trying to win a championship in our league,” Smith said. “Those three (in the East) are trying to win now, as opposed to saying ‘We’re OK where we are. Let’s stay the status quo.’”

———————————–

Otis Smith was hired by the Magic on May 6, 2006.

This is what the team’s roster looked like on that day:

Augmon, Stacey F
Battie, Tony PF-C
Cato, Kelvin C
Diener, Travis PG
Dooling, Keyon G
Francis, Steve G
Garrity, Pat PF
Hill, Grant G-F
Howard, Dwight C
Kasun, Mario C
Morris, Terence PF
Nelson, Jameer PG
Outlaw, Bo PF
Stevenson, DeShawn G
Turkoglu, Hedo F

This is what it looks like today, 41 months later:

Almond, Morris G
Anderson, Ryan PF
Barnes, Matt F
Bass, Brandon PF
Carter, Vince G-F
Foyle, Adonal C
Gortat, Marcin C
Howard, Dwight C
Johnson, Anthony PG
Johnson, Linton F
Lewis, Rashard F
Nelson, Jameer PG
Pietrus, Mickael G-F
Redick, JJ G
Williams, Jason PG

This is Orlando’s record of performance, since that date:

2008-2009
59-23/.720, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, NBA Finalist 
2007-2008
52-30/.634, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 2nd Rd
2006-2007
40-42/.488, 3rd Atlantic, 8th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

This was their record of performance the season before Smith arrived:

2005-2006
36-46/.439, 3rd Atlantic, 10th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

3 full seasons into his tenure with the Magic, Otis Smith should be considered as one of the best GM’s in the NBA.

================================================

By way of comparison, for the benefit of Raptors fans, this is what Toronto has accomplished under the direction of Bryan Colangelo [2-time NBA EOTY award recipient] during this same time-frame:

2005-2006 Roster [Feb 28 2006]
Araujo, Rafael PF
Bonner, Matt PF
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
Davis, Antonio PF-C
Graham, Joey F
James, Mike PG
Martin, Darrick PG
Peterson, Morris G-F
Sow, Pape PF
Villanueva, Charlie F
Williams, Eric G-F
Woods, Loren C

2009-2010, Current Roster
Banks, Marcus G
Bargnani, Andrea C
Belinelli, Marco G-F
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
DeRozan, Demar G-F
Douby, Quincy G
Evans, Reggie PF
Jack, Jarrett G
Johnson, Amir PF
Nesterovic, Rasho PF-C
O’Bryant, Patrick C
Turkoglu, Hedo F
Weems, Sonny G-F
Wright, Antoine G-F

Year #1-3
2008-2009
33-49/.402, 4th Atlantic, 13th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs
2007-2008
41-41/.500, 2nd Atlantic, 6th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd
2006-2007
47-35/.573, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

Year Prior
2005-2006
27-55/.329, 4th Atlantic, 1st Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

================================================

In the NBA, the cold harsh reality is that there are only 2 distinct tiers of teams:

Tier 1
Those few that are actually trying to win the League Championship.

Tier 2
Everybody else.

Much R.E.S.P.E.C.T. to Otis Smith for “cutting to the chase” and improving the Orlando Magic each season, thus far.

================================================

 Loading ...

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 20 – at Atlanta [Wed Dec 02]

The Hawks are going to be a solid team in the EC this season. Adding a good PG from the 2009 NBA Draft [i.e. Jeff Teague], a multi-purpose Guard [i.e. Jamal Crawford] and a serviceable veteran Big [i.e. Joe Smith] improves their squad significantly; as does 1 more year of maturation with their core group [i.e. Joe Johnson, 28; Al Horford, 23; Josh Smith, 23; and, Marvin Williams, 23] together. The individual match-up advantages favour Atlanta … which will probably mean another road loss for the Raptors, in this back-2-back.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 7-13

———————————–

PS. This marks the end of the “early season” phase for the Raptors.

Related:

Toronto Raptors Season Preview: Game 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1.

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 19 – vs Washington [Tue Dec 01]

Despite the small individual match-up advantage that the Wizards have in this game, the Raptors should be ble to emerge with the victory, on their home-court.

Washington plays at home on the Sat Nov 28 [vs Charlotte] then has 2 off days before beginning a stretch of 4 games in 6 days that looks like this:

Tue Dec 01 at TOR
Wed Dec 02 vs Mil
Fri Dec 04 vs Tor
Sun Dec 06 vs Det

only 1 of which is on the road. Expect the Wizards to play well at home in these games and mail it in on the road.

Raptors expected W-L Record: W, 7-12

The pertinent facts from this game?

1. The Raptors used their main rotation players for more minutes than the Celtics [Box Score].

2. The 3rd Quarter Play-By-Play.

3. Given the state of his physical condition at this stage of his recovery from off-season surgery on his right knee, expect to see Kevin Garnett check Andrea Bargnani this season … with Kendrick Perkins checking CB4 … when these teams face one another.

4. KPM’s for this game:

5. When they kick it into gear, the Celtics’ Rebounding [44-32] and Defensive/Offensive Efficiency [BOS: 0.99, 106 pts on 107 possessions; 0.99/Tor: 0.91, 90 pts on 99 possessions] numbers are superior to the Raptors. 

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 18 – vs Phoenix [Sun Nov 29]

Originally, this was a game which yours truly thought the Raptors could/should/would win during this initial stretch of 20 games to start the season … that is … until the individual match-ups were examined in closer detail, especially, in the light of last night’s exhibition games vs Boston [aka, Hedo Turkoglu's debut with the Raptors] and Portland [for Phoenix].

The pre-season injury to Robin Lopez is going to impair the Suns’ ability to match-up physically in the post with a number of teams in the league this year. However, at the same time, Suns’ opponents are going to have their hands full coping with the different/unusual 5-man combinations which Phoenix will now be able to put on the floor together, playing at a very high tempo [e.g. last night Phoenix closed their game with Nash + Barbosa + Dudley + Frye + Stoudemire]. 

When healthy, this group of Suns is going to be too much for the Raptors to handle, given that:

1 The only match-up advantage in Toronto’s favour is Chris Bosh; 

2 The Raptors’ defense and rebounding will continue to struggle this season with the addition of Turkoglu; and,

3 The Suns are now capable of shooting the lights out with the 3-ball.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 6-12