khandor’s sports blog

For the benefit of both Raptors and Heat fans:

Enjoy! … what should prove to be a highly entertaining game.

PS. Is there any doubt, however, that the Heat have the “coolest” [baby, baby, baby] roster web page in the NBA today?

This past off season, when this corner consistently rated Miami as one of the few sure-fire playoff teams in the Eastern Conference this year … provided the Heat get a full season from D-Wade … there were many in the blogosphere who took exception and asked, incredulously,

“Huh? How come? … Their overall roster simply isn’t good enough to be put into THAT category. Is it?”

Well …

At this moment, there are only 5 undefeated teams in the NBA:

Boston [3-0], Orlando [3-0], Denver [3-0], Phoenix [3-0] and Miami [3-0].

Reasons Why the Miami Heat Will Succeed This Season 

A. Pat Riley [GM] really does know what he’s doing … and, “all things Heat” spring forth from him.

B. When all is said and done, several years from now, Erik Spoelstra is going to be recognized as a very solid NBA coach; see “A”, above, for further reference.

C. The late additions of Carlos Arroyo and Quentin Richardson are ”good fits” for what Miami needed this season to successfully bridge the gap until the 2010 off season arrives … when they will become significant players in the free agent marketplace; see “A”, above, for further reference. 

D.-Man is a legit MVP candidate, this year … as The Best Guard in the NBA not named Kobe Bryant.

E. The players on their roster this season, although NOT as “talented” overall as the other top squads in the Association, actually DO “fit together” in a way that should/will allow them to remain in the playoff race the whole year, and eventually earn 1 of the 8 coveted berths into the post-season, i.e. With the team culture in Miami, “The whole is usually greater than the sum of the parts,” see “A”, above, for further reference.

Building a championship calibre organization in the NBA isn’t always about performing “radical surgery” on your roster in the summer months.

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“The proof of the pudding is in the eating.” - Anonymous

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 13 – vs Mia [Fri Nov 20]

The first home game following a WC road trip can be a dangerous situation in the NBA. That said … the Raptors might be in dire need of winning this specific contest, given their poor early season W-L record. Miami, on the other hand, might be a few games above .500, on the strength of several home games early in the schedule, and coming into this one off a road loss at Atlanta, a Southwest Division rival. Although there is no defensive match-up on the Raptors roster capable of handling D-Wade effectively … who might well go for 40+ in this encounter … the front-court tandem of Bosh & Bargnani should be able to off-set this single major disadvantage. If the Dinos are going to remain in the playoff hunt this season, they will need to win games like this one, i.e. at home; without an individual match-up disadvantage. 

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 5-8

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando - High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland - High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston - High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington - Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte - Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee - Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York - Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey - Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

Prior to the recent transaction between the Raptors [Bryan Colangelo], Mavericks [Donnie Nelson], Magic [Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik] and Grizzlies [Chris Wallace], this is what each of those team’s rosters looked like:

Coming out the other side, today, this is what they look like now, respectively:

Legend:
UFA - Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA - Restricted Free Agent; R - Rookie Player; TPE - Traded Player Exception; DP - Draft Pick; CC - Cash Considerations

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The Perspective From This Corner

The fact is, however, that the Cleveland Cavaliers [Danny Ferry] MAY have benefitted most of all from this specific transaction, as they subsequently gained unfettered access to Anthony Parker, the exact sort of complementary wing player they were searching for … to augment LeBron James & Co., in an effort to win their 1st NBA Championship. 

Your feedback is welcome in the “Comments” section.

After splitting W’s away from home this past weekend it’s easy to see how and why the Raptors and the Knicks currently occupy the 13th and 14th spots in the Eastern Conference standings. 

Game 1, Sat Apr 04 2009
FINAL SCORE: Raptors 102, KNICKS 95
Complete Game Info

Although the Raptors played poorly overall, shooting just 40.0 [FG%], they were still able to make enough 3PT shots [9-24/37.5%] to outscore the Knicks who were simply pathetic … i.e. 4-18/3PT% [22.2], -5 Turnovers [15/10], -3 Rebounds [44/47].

Quentin Richardson played 23:14, off the bench at the #2/OG position, and finished -14 [+/-], despite doing some good things individually [+14/kPER]. 

The 07:36 stretch which New York played with the PG/OG/SF combination of

Nate Robinson + Quentin Richardson + Jared Jeffries [-6, +/-] 
Nate Robinson + Quentin Richardson + Wilson Chandler [-7, +/-]

to end the 3rd quarter [03:56] and begin the 4th [08:20] was particularly poor, turning a 2 point lead into a hefty 11 point deficit, from which the Knicks never recovered.

What changed in the 2nd game of the weekend set to tip the balance in favour of the Knicks?

Game 2, Sun Apr 05 2009
FINAL SCORE: RAPTORS 103, Knicks 112
Complete Game Info

#1. Several Knicks played at a much higher level offensively, including David Lee, Wilson Chandler, Jared Jeffries, Chris Wilcox, Nate Robinson and Larry Hughes.

#2. Several Raptors had their individual game’s drop noticably, including Andrea Bargnani, Shawn Marion, Jose Calderon and Joey Graham.

#3. The Knicks outscored the Raptors by 27 points from the 3PT-line [i.e. New York 13-25/.52.0%; TORONTO 4-13/.30.8%], shot a higher FG% overall [New York/50.6%; TORONTO/44.3%] and improved their Turnover Differential [New York 12; TORONTO 12 = 0].

Did the Raptors play worse? Or, did the Knicks play better?

The Knicks played better, improving their TOTAL productivity by +28 [kPER]; while the Raptors improved theirs by only +4 [kPER].

The sad reality for both of these teams is that neither one is very good this season, in comparison with the other solid playoff squads in the Eastern Conference, i.e. Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta, Miami, Philadelphi and Detroit, and each will need to make important changes this off season … specifically, to some of the players in the #3-15 slots on their respective depth charts, who are simply not consistent enough to get the job done on a consistent basis … in order to separate itself from the other, as well as the rest of the mediocre teams in this half of the NBA, i.e. Chicago, Charlotte, Milwaukee, New Jersey and Washington, who are very similar in overall ability.

1st Quarter
8:58 Bos 33 NYK 30

Having (finally/temporarily?) settled on the following rotation …

STARTERS: PG/Fred Jones, OG/Jamal Crawford, SF/Q-Richardson, PF/Zach Randolph, C/Eddie Curry;
SUBS: PG/Nate Robinson, G-F/Jared Jeffries, F/David Lee, F/Renaldo Balkman 
RESERVES: G/Mardy Collins, PF-C/Malik Rose, C/Jerome James

the New York Knicks (13-27) are playing their best basketball of the season, winning 4 of their last 5 games (vs Det, vs Was, @ NJ and @ Mia) and, today, are playing tough against the Boston Celtics (unlike last time).

Q: What’s the key to the Knicks improved play of late and their heightened expectations for the remainder of the season?

A: The total absence of Stephon Marbury from their team.

Knicks: Stephon Marbury made decision to have surgery now

Despite their status as multi-million-dollar salaried, high profile employees, Real Life can sometimes be harsh for professional athletes … when they reach the END OF THE LINE.

Such is the case, precisely, in this instance, for the Knicks and Starbury. 

If he’s actually played his final game (ever) for his home-town team, both the Knicks and Stephon Marbury will be better off for it.

Let’s sincerely hope that both sides of this equation can, at last, see the light (of good reason) and, either with a straight ‘Buy Out’ or a trade - plus a renewed commitment to playing team basketball, defense & rebounding - put this franchise back on the road to respectability. 

LIVE (In-Game) UPDATE:

3rd Quarter
12:00 Bos 59 NYK 45 … Knicks Starters, this half: Robinson, Crawford, Jeffries, Lee and Randolph

06:38 Bos 68 NYK 52 … Q-Rich (who can shoot) subs in for Jeffries (who can’t)

05:20 Bos 70 NYK 54 … Curry subs in for Lee … the Knicks are going in-reverse

02:57 Bos 80 NYK 63 … Paul Pierce and Q-Rich both get tossed from the game, picking up their 2nd techs apiece … Joey Crawford’s in the house … Fred Jones subs in

00:31 Bos 82 NYK 70 … the C’s lead is now cut to 12

4th Quarter

12:00 Bos 82 NYK 70 … Knicks Starters: Robinson, Crawford, Jones, Randolph and Curry … vs the Celtics’ 2nd unit, i.e. Eddie House, Ray Allen, Tony Allen, Leon Powe and Big Baby Davis

11:41 Bos 82 NYK 72 … Kevin Garnett subs in for Leon Powe … things are about to get very interesting … versus the Knicks BIG line-up, without Mr. Pierce

08:20 Bos 89 NYK 81 … coming back from 19 down, the Knicks are fighting hard today … with Boston already in the ‘penalty’ free throw situation

06:15 Bos 94 NYK 82 … Knicks’ time-out

04:41 Bos 100 NYK 83 … Knicks’ time-out, again, after the C’s stepped on the gas with consecutive hoops by KG, Davis (O-Reb dunk) and House … Lee subs in for Randolph; Jeffries subs in for Curry; Knicks trying to go with a ’small’ line-up

02:27 Bos 107 NYK 87 … the Knicks hit a scoring wall after cutting the lead to 8 … ‘White Flag’ time in Gotham

00:00 Bos 109 KNY 93

Not nearly good enough but, still, a far cry from a 45 point shellacking.

Better days ahead (?) … for this once storied franchise.