khandor’s sports blog

During Wednesday’s television broadcast of the Orlando/Toronto game, Jack Armstrong, Toronto’s analyst, made the following observation about the perceived talent level for this year’s Raptors team:  

Then, on Thursday evening , during the FAN590’s ”Hoops” broadcast, Eric Smith, Toronto’s radio analyst, tried to re-iterated this same point of view, when a caller suggested that the Charlotte Bobcats should actually be considered as “a better team with more NBA talent than the Raptors” … along with, at least, 4 other teams in the Estern Conference, i.e. Boston, Orlando, Cleveland and Atlanta.

After hearing Eric’s response to that caller, this is the exact comment [including errors] which was submitted by yours truly to his FAN590 blog, The Rap, on Friday, Dec 18 2009, at 2:17 PM:

————-

Hi, Eric.

I heard you on speak with a caller on last night’s show, just prior to 8:00 PM, concerning your belief that the Raptors [11-17/.393] are a better team than the Bobcats [10-14/.417]. According to what you said, your opinion was based on conversations you have had with various NBA insiders who you have encountered across the league and what their impression of Toronto and Charlotte has been to this point in the season.

Respectfully, it is my contention that you … and these NBA insiders who you happened to have communicated with regarding the relative strength of these two teams … happen to be incorrect in this assessment, and will eventually be proven wrong are the season plays itself out.

After starting the season poorly, without Stephen Jackson on their roster, the Bobcats have begun to climb up the standings in the Eastern Conference, and are now ahead of the Raptors. Although the Raptors [#4] have played a more difficult schedule than the Bobcats [#15], to this point, IMO, Charlotte has more “NBA talent” on its current roster, and should probably be expected to close out the current season by finishing ahead of Toronto in the final standings.

Calderon [+1] > Felton
DeRozan < Jackson [+1]
Turkoglu < Wallace [+2]
Bosh [+2] > Diaw
Bargnani < Chandler [+3]
———————-
Jack = Augustin
Belinelli < Henderson [+4]
Wright < Brown [+5]
Johnson = Mohammed
Nesterovic [+3] > Diop
———————-
Banks < Murray [+6]
Seems [+4] > Law
 Mensah-Bonsu = Graham
Evans [+5] ?
O’Bryant = Ajinca
———————-
Triano < Brown [+7]

PS. Hopefully, the fanbase should now be able to see that we’ve been saying for a while now, re: Jose Calderon’s relative lack of individual defensive prowess not being the major catalyst for the team’s many short-comings on that side of the ball, has been a highly accurate assessment.

————- 

As you can clearly see there are several typos and what appear to be “publication errors” contained in that specific comment, which was submitted rather hurriedly and is still awaiting moderation/publication at The Rap.

In an effort to clear up any mis-understanding which Eric Smith - or other visitors to his blog - might have … 

Here is a more “in-depth” analysis of the rosters for the Raptors and the Bobcats, with a few adjustments to the initial ratings that more accurately reflect the current state of affairs with these two teams, from the perspective of this coner:

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Visitors here are invited to elaborate further on their own answer to this question in the comments section.

This evening’s game between Toronto [11-16/.407, 2nd Atlantic] and Orlando [18-6/.750, 1st Southeast] marks the first occasion for the “Turkish Michael Jordan” to make a return visit to his old haunt in the Magic Kingdom.

As the former “go-to, clutch time” performer for last season’s squad in Orlando, which played its way to the NBA Finals …

What did it really say about Hedo Turkoglu [at 30 years of age] that he was actually willing to forego the opportunity to win a NBA championship with the Magic this season, in order to sign a $50.0 M contract to play the next 5 seasons for the Toronto Raptors?

Perhaps, that he really does care more about being content and comfortable in his own personal life than he cares about doing what’s necessary to win a NBA championship.

Doing what’s necessary to win a NBA championship?

For example:

* Getting back in defensive transition to prevent easy opposition baskets.

* Defending one’s individual check with consistent tenacity.

* Defending, in a half-court team context, with thorough responsibility.

* Rebounding with an absolute commitment to recover the ball.

* Discriminating readily between an open and a contested shot attempt.

* Physically standing up for a fallen/vulnerable teammate, when need be.

* A willingness to play within an assigned role for the good of the team.

* A willingness to sacrifice oneself [i.e. the physical body, as well as, personal wants and desires] for the benefit of the team.

In their 16 losses this year, Bryan Colangelo’s Raptors have succumbed by margins of:

Considering that the acquisition of Hedo Turkoglu/SF:

Career Stats, Hedo Turkoglu

was one of the two major personnel moves made by the Raptors this past summer …

along with the $50.0 M, 5-yr extension of the ‘rookie contract’ for former No. 1 [overall] Draft Pick, Andrea Bargnani/C:

Career Stats, Andrea Bargnani

it should be of little wonder to the Raptors faithful that Toronto is mired in the lower half of the Eastern Conference, in a quest for the last playoff position.

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Shame on those who actually thought that Otis Smith [GM, Orlando Magic] may not have known exactly what he was talking about …

Orlando Magic GM dissing Hedo Turkoglu?

in his alleged conversations with Kevin Pritchard [GM, Portland Trail Blazers], in the aftermath of Mr. Turkoglu’s decision to sign on with the Raptors, and that Hedo Turkoglu’s priorities might actually include winning a NBA title. 

Caveat Emptor!

With last night’s 16th loss of the season …

Toronto Raptors 95
MIAMI HEAT 115
Game Summary

the most important question for the Toronto Raptors is:

Q1. Should this team, as constructed, be expected to improve substantially over the course of the next 55 games, or not?

A1. Well …

PART ONE

This is what the Eastern Conference standings look like today:

PART TWO

As of Fri Dec 11 2009, this is what the Strength Of Schedule [SOS] looked like for the teams in the East:

PART THREE

Looking at the injury situation for the Raptors and the other teams around them in the standings:

PART FOUR

For all practical intents and purposes:

PART FIVE

As has been said in this corner, since the 2009 NBA Draft took place …

when the Raptors chose not to trade down from the No. 9 position [overall], in an effort to re-invigorate their squad with:

* An additional NBA-calibre player obtained in a trade down

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, which could have been used to acquire an in-coming player like Brandon Jennings, or Terrence Williams, or Earl Clark, or Rodrigue Beaubois, or Taj Gibson

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have bought with their $3.0 M ‘draft voucher’ obtained in their trade with the Miami Heat, which they could have used to acquire a player like Taj Gibson, or DeJuan Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Sam Young, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

or

The upper 2nd Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, if a lower 1st Round Pick was not available, with which they could have acquired an in-coming player like DeJaun Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

and the decisons were made by Bryan Colangelo:

1 To not re-sign Shawn Marion for the dollar amount required to retain his services;

2 To not re-sign their own unrestricted free agents [i.e. Anthony Parker and Joey Graham];

3 To sign Jay Triano [then, interim head coach] to a 3-yr contract extension;

4 To complete the series of trades which then ensued with Orlando, Dallas, Golden State and Milwaukee, in effect, exchanging the following players on the team’s 2008-2009 roster with their corresponding counterparts [i.e. coded by colour] on the current version:

… that actually did little overall to substantially improve the Quality Depth on their team, despite what the fanbase was originally led to believe by the Raptors’ Management Team and assorted NBA “observers” who extolled the influx of supposed “talent” associated with these new additions to the roster …

this year’s Raptors team is no better than a number of other middle-of-the- pack outfits in the Eastern Conference and, in fact, should be expected to struggle to make the playoffs this season.

Those who thought/think that this edition of the Toronto Raptors has UNDER-ACHIEVED, to this point, this season …

were/are fundamentally INCORRECT.

This is precisely WHO and WHAT the Raptors are, and approximately WHERE the 2009-2010 version of their team SHOULD BE expected to finish this season, based on the personnel [i.e. players and coaches] on its roster.

Houston Rockets [10-13] 88
TORONTO RAPTORS [11-15] 101
Box Score

One of the beauties of basketball is that there are almost always different ways to accomplish a specific goal.

If the Raptors use the player rotation which they employed yesterday:

they should be able to compete successfully against the other middle-of-the-pack teams, in the NBA, from game-to-game.

This is just one example of an effective rotation for the Raptors which:

1. Places increased emphasis on Team Defense and Rebounding.

2. Makes much better use of the more dynamic NBA calibre athletes on their roster [i.e. Sonny Weems, Amir Johnson and Pops Mensah-Bonsu].

3. More clearly defines each player’s role in a tighter [i.e. 8-9 man] rotation.

4. Limits/reduces the minutes played overall by Andrea Bargnani/C [i.e. MPG/33.2]. 

5. Minimizes/eliminates the minutes played overall by Antoine Wright/SF [i.e. DNP]. 

If they use this specific rotation in their next game, at Miami [Tue Dec 15], the Raptors should be able to battle the Heat down to the final few possessions … which, on a consistent basis, is really all any Raptors fan can ask for this season, given the overall “quality” of the roster.

Following last night’s deflating home loss to the Atlanta Hawks, the conference standings in the East look like this:

Prior to the 2009 NBA Draft, however, these were some of the players who were recommended in this space for the Toronto Raptors:

Terrence Williams [OG-SF, New Jersey, 1st Rd]
Earl Clark [SF-PF, Phoenix, 1st Rd]
Derrick Brown [SF-PF, Charlotte, 2nd Rd]
Taj Gibson [PF, Chicago, 1st Rd]
Dante Cunningham [PF, Portland, 2nd Rd]
Marcus Thornton [OG, New Orleans, via Miami, 2nd Rd]
Nando De Colo [OG-SF, San Antonio, 2nd Rd]

Prior to the 4-team trade that involved the Raptors, Magic, Mavericks and Grizzlies, it was also suggested here that Toronto should:

If the Raptors would have followed those recommendations, instead of:

culminating with a roster that looks like the middle column in the following chart:

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Yours truly thinks they would.

It’s by developing and then implementing a sound Basketball Philosophy … which emphasizes the importance of [I] Team Defense, [II] Rebounding, and [III] Shared Team Offense, in this order … maintaining general roster stability, from one season to the next, while acquiring Quality Depth, and obtaining the services of an experienced and successful NBA head coach, that the Raptors would be able to fundamentally alter the direction of their franchise and construct the type of championship-calibre organization which UFA’s like Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James, etc., would willingly CHOOSE to play for, if they have their druthers, either, this coming off season or further down-the-road.

The word “benchmark” has the following definition:

bench·mark (bnchmärk)

As was mentioned yesterday, last night’s contest between Toronto and Milwaukee should have been viewed by each team as a pivotal game, and an early season barometer for where their respective franchise stands in relation to the other middle-of-the-pack squads in the Eastern Conference.

Toronto Raptors 95
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 117
Complete Game Summary

By no means should the Bucks be viewed as an ideal, or even an up-and-coming, franchise in the NBA, at this point in time. Milwaukee has:

- a talented, young Starting-calibre PG
- a defensively stout young Starting-calibre SF-PF 
- an all-around solid Starting-calibre C

who they can build around moving forward …

- a solid, experienced, head coach

who they can build with moving forward … and,

- a dead-weight former “franchise player”

who is no longer a major part of their team with a fairly hefty contract that is due to expire in just 2 years

- a slew of good-but-still-far-from-being-very-good back-up players on their roster

who they can use to fill in the gaps, while hoping to field a highly competitive team, on an annual basis …

and, then, prescious little more than that.

Yet, last night, playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, after losing 8 of their previous 9 games … they were still able to dismantle the Raptors on the strength of [a] Brandon Jennings first-half scoring exploits, [b] solid team defense, and [c] individual offensive contributions from a host of different back-up players [e.g. Ersan Ilyasova , 17 pts; Roko Ukic, 17 pts; Carlos Delfino, 14 pts; Luke Ridnour, 15 pts].

Raptors fans who thought that their team’s recent 3-game winning streak was an authentic indication of a “righted ship”, heading toward the upper-middle region of the conference standings, sometime soon, were simply being delusional, once again. 

The road victory over Washington [7-12/.368, 10th/EC] was an overtime decision that could have gone either way at the end of regulation and at the final buzzer when Gilbert Arenas inexplicably missed an open lay-up.

The road victory over Chicago [7-13/.350, 11th/EC] was a relatively meaningless encounter against an opponent that is currently in free-fall … coping with [I] debilitating injuries to 2 key rotation players, both of whom are solid defender/rebounders, at their respective positions, and [II] the loss of their leading scorer from last season [i.e. Ben Gordon, who was not retained, as an UFA, this past summer].

The home victory over Minnesota [3-19/.136; 15th/WC] was secured in the final 90 seconds, when a 3PT shot from Antoine Wright [3FG% = 30.2] found the bottom of the net to push the Raptors’ precarious lead from 2 to 5 points.

On the other hand, last night’s game against the Bucks was a different beast entirely.

The Bucks were looking ahead at their next 3 opponents … i.e. vs the Blazers, vs the Lakers and @ the Cavaliers … and not liking what they saw, at all.

The Bucks are a solid middle-of-the-pack team this season:

[Ratings as of Mon Dec 05, 2009]

In last night’s game, key [revealing?] stats included:

When an opponent converts 3.5% more of its Total Shot Value, creates 5 more Possessions and a Points per Possession differential of 0.168, it indicates that your team was out-classed in a number of different ways.  

1/4 of the way through the regular season schedule, what should now be a legit concern for the Raptors organization, and its fanbase, is what you see when you look at the following two charts; appraising [i] where these two teams were last night:

and, then, [ii] where it looks as though they might be headed in the immediate future:

When the 2009-2010 off-season arrives and Chris Bosh sits down to evaluate where his chances might be the best to effectively challenge for a future NBA championship, realistically, do you think that he is going to perceive the Toronto Raptors as the No. 1 place for him to accomplish this goal in the no-too-distant future?

A team which might even be considered as beneath the decidedly “average” Milwaukee Bucks on the authentic depth chart in the East this season?

The Raptors next 4 games are:

Fri Dec 11 vs Atlanta [QR = 30; QIR = 9]
Sun Dec 13 vs Houston [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Tue Dec 15 @ MIAMI [QR = 42; QIR = T-13]
Wed Dec 16 @ ORLANDO [QR = 17; QIR = 2]

Legend: QR – Quality Rating [PDR/Points Differential Rank + PAR/Points Allowed Rank + RDR/Rebounding Differential Rank]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [#1-30]; as of Sun Dec 06.

When assessing the relative strength of these 4 opponents, it’s imperative that the Raptors [10-14] get their act together quickly, substantially improve their Team Defense, and win their up-coming 2 home games … or, face the very real possibility of amassing another extended losing streak [i.e. a 5-gamer this time] and an inauspicious W-L Record [10-18?].

What Toronto has done so far this season is no way to go about convincing Chris Bosh that he should actually re-sign with the Raptors, as one of the premier unrestricted free agents in 2010.

To paraphrase something once said by Yogi Berra, noted philosopher :

“Sometimes, it really does get late early out there … in the process of pursuing one’s own UFA.”

The Raptors would do well to not forget that Life Truism this season. 

Toronto [7-13/.350] played its 20th game of the season last night.

Toronto Raptors 115
ATLANTA HAWKS 146
Complete Game Info

For those of you keeping track, these were the suggested outcomes that were listed here, in September [approximately 1 month in advance], for the team’s first 20 games this season, from the perspective of an astute NBA observer: