khandor’s sports blog

FYI …

Last night’s 7-point home-court victory over the Miami Heat was, in fact, the first time this season yours truly deemed the Raptors to be in a highly favourable situation to ”win outright” AND to secure “the cover” against the posted wagering number [TOR -3/-110]. 

As a result … and, strictly from the perspective of K[handor's] S[ports] S[ervice] … the Raptors’ W-L Record this season now stands at 1 Win, 0 Losses/+5.0 units.

Congrats! … to those who were along for the ride.

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PS. Overall, last night’s action in the NBA finished 2-1/+4.9 units … with the Raptors and Magic [+6/-104] on the plus side; and, the Hawks [-7/-102] on the minus. 

ESPN has now published its Expected Finishes for the EC this season, based on the views of its panel of so-called “experts”:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston, 1.0; 56.5/-126 [average votes; Total Wins, Over/wagerline]
2 Toronto, 2.3; 41.5/+119
3 Philadelphia, 2.7; 40.5/-114
4 New York, 4.9; 31.5/-108
5 New Jersey, 4.9; 28.5/-123

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland, 1.0; 61.5/-108
2 Chicago, 2.3; 40.5/-123
3 Detroit, 2.7; 41.5/+111 *
4 Indiana, 4.0; 34.5/-108
5 Milwaukee, 5.0; 25.5/-134

Southeast
1 Orlando, 1.0; 57.5/-108
2 Atlanta, 2.2; 44.5/-108
3 Washington, 3.1; 41.5/-104
4 Miami, 3.7; 40.0/-108
5 Charlotte, 5.0; 37.5/-108

CONFERENCE
1 Cleveland, 1.7; 61.5/-108
2 Boston, 2.1; 56.5/-126
3 Orlando, 2.2; 57.5/-108 *
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4 Atlanta, 4.5; 44.5/-108
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5 Washington, 5.1; 41.5/-104
6 Chicago, 6.4; 40.5/-123
7 Toronto, 7.3; 41.5/+119 *
8 Miami, 7.6; 40.0/-108
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9 Philadelphia, 8.5; 40.5/-114 *
10 Detroit, 8.7; 41.5/+111 *
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11 Indiana, 11.2; 34.5/-108
12 Charlotte, 12.4; 37.5/-108 *
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T13 New York, 14.3; 31.5/-108
T13 New Jersey, 14.3; 28.5/-123
T13 Milwaukee, 14.3; 25.5/-134

LEGEND: Bold - rated higher than its Expected Total Wins, Over-Under order; * - rated lower than it Expected Total Wins, Over-Under order

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Of particular interest is what these “expert” projections look like when placed beside the Total Wins, Over/wagerlines which are now available, as well. 

When the Expected Total Wins first get set across the board in the NBA, it can be an early indication of perceived Power Rankings for the coming season.

1 LA Lakers OVER 62, -108

2 San Antonio Spurs OVER 54.5, -108

3 Portland Trail Blazers OVER 52.5, -127

4 Denver Nuggets OVER 52.5, -108

5 Utah Jazz OVER 49.5, -108

6 Dallas Mavericks OVER 48.5, -108

7 New Orleans Hornets OVER 46.5, -102

8 Phoenix Suns OVER 41.5, -108

9 Houston Rockets OVER 35.5, -127
10 Golden State Warriors OVER 35.5, -108
11 Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 35.5, +105
12 LA Clippers OVER 34.5, +105
13 Memphis Grizzlies OVER 27.5, -108
14 Minnesota Timberwolves OVER -25.5, -160
15 Sacramento Kings OVER 24.5, -123

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You’re invited to elaborate on your opinion in the comments section. 

This should come as sobering news to Raptors fans who expect the team to challenge for the 4th Seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs this season:

REGULAR SEASON WINS

1 Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 61.5, -108

2 Orlando Magic OVER 57.5, -108

3 Boston Celtics OVER 56.5, -126

4 Atlanta Hawks OVER 44.5, -108

5 Washington Wizards OVER 41.5, -104

6 Detroit Pistons OVER 41.5, +111

7 Toronto Raptors OVER 41.5, +119

8 Chicago Bulls OVER 40.5, -123

9 Philadelphia 76ers OVER 40.5, -114
10 Miami Heat OVER 40.0, -108
11 Charlotte Bobcats OVER 37.5, -108
12 Indiana Pacers OVER 34.5, -108
13 New York Knicks OVER 31.4, -108
14 New Jersey Nets OVER 28.5, -123
15 Milwaukee Bucks OVER 25.5, -134

In the judgment of those who set the wagering odds for these types of things, as of today, the Toronto sits squarely in the Middle-of-the-Pack in the EC, along with Atlanta, Washington, Detroit, Chicago, Philadelphia, Miami and Charlotte.

The problem is … only 5 of those 8 teams will be able to make the playoffs.

Current Odds To Win the Series
Denver Nuggets +231
LOS ANGELES LAKERS -251

Although Denver has played very well to this point in the Playoffs, they do not enjoy a host of different match-up advantages vs Los Angeles, like they did vs Dallas and New Orleans.

In particular, the specific spots where the Nuggets have possessed major advantages … i.e. at the PG [although that might be difficult for CP3 lovers to believe] and PF/C positions, plus in terms Quality Depth, overall … will not be the case in this series:

Point Guard

* Billups’ game is based on strength, not quickness. Whereas Aaron Brooks was too quick for Derek Fisher … physical strength & guile just happen to be two strengths of D-Fish, as well.

* Anthony Carter is a highly capable Back-up PG. The combination of Jordan Farmar & Shannon Brown is equally formidable.

Power Forward/Center

* Nene, Kenyon Martin, Chris Anderson & Johan Petro is a versatile and highly effective set of Bigs. So, too, however, is Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom & Josh Powell.  

Quality Depth

* JR Smith, Anderson, Carter, Linas Kleiza, Petro, Jason Hart & Renaldo Balkman are a stout and highly serviceable Group of 7, coming off the bench. However, they are not a superior force, in comparison with the Lakers’ corresponding re-inforcements, i.e. Sasha Vujacic, Odom, Farmar, Luke Walton, Powell, Brown & DJ Mbenga.  

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Please Note:
At the moment, the Lakers are +220 to Win the 2008-2009 NBA Title. For those so inclined, this is a VERY GOOD proposition.