khandor’s sports blog

Where does your favourite team rank at the halfway point in the regular season schedule?

Related:

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

Where is your favourite team in the race to win this year’s League Championship?

Related:

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

is that:

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Justin Kubatko, of Basketball-Reference, doesn’t mess around with numbers. He doesn’t get all excited about things that don’t matter. And the other day in The New York Times he wrote:

There have been 38 teams in N.B.A. history with a point differential of at least plus-10.0 points a game through their first 18 games. The median winning percentage of those teams was .753, which translates to 49.7 wins over a 66-game season. Additionally, 24 of those teams advanced to the N.B.A. finals, with 19 claiming the championship.

In short, mediocre teams do not go on extended runs in which they routinely outscored opponents by double-digit margins. If history serves as a guide, Philadelphia is a contender.

In other words, there are interesting numbers to suggest the Sixers are even money to win the title this year. Which is one nutty thing to suggest.

On the other hand, half the teams that have started this hot in NBA history did not win the title. And there is good reason to suspect these Sixers may fall into that category. They have played just about the easiest schedule in the NBA. When they have played the power teams on the road they have generally lost — at Portland, at Utah, at New York, and badly at Miami. They have also lost at home to the Nuggets and (gulp) Nets.

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Unfortunately, Philadelphia is not yet a legitimate contender to win the NBA Championship this season … since there are 5 teams in the Eastern Conference with more overall talent on their roster.

Although Philadelphia is a much better team than many so-called “NBA experts” may have erroneously projected in the off and/or pre season, in reality, this team is also not nearly as good as the number-crunchers might try to tell you it is, at this point in the season, based on their marginal of victory to-date … and, until the 76ers actually have Top 4 talent on their roster, they should not ever be considered as one of the few legitimate contending teams in the hunt for the NBA Championship in a given season, at least, by an authentic NBA expert.

There are three main phases to the game of basketball:

i. Offense;
ii. Defense; and,
iii. Rebounding.

Developing an accurate understanding of the overall NBA talent which exists on the roster for each team at the beginning of the season is a fundamental aspect of properly evaluating the day-to-day goings-on across the league over the course of the season.

INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF TEAM ROSTERS IN NBA’S EASTERN CONFERENCE [as of Sun-Dec-25-2011]

The NBA Playoffs are set to tip-off in approximately 40 minutes.

This year, there are a number of teams with legitimate aspirations to win the league championship, including:

Chicago Bulls [EC1]
Miami Heat [EC2]
Boston Celtics [EC3]
San Antonio Spurs [WC1]
LA Lakers [WC2]

based on:

#1. The overall ability level of their rotational players;

#2. The specific ability levels of their bonafide “star” players;

#3. The ability level of their coach [and his staff];

#4. The prior experience of their rotational players; and,

#5. The prior experience of their coach [and his staff]. 

Below this elite group, there is a larger 2nd tier, that is very strong, as well, but with individial teams that fall just short of the 1st tier, in one or more of the above criteria, including:

Dallas [i.e. deficient in #2]
Orlando [i.e. deficient in #2]
Oklahoma City [i.e. deficient in #3 and #4]
Denver [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4] 
New York [i.e. deficient in #1 and #3]
Philadelphia [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4]
Atlanta [i.e. deficient in #2, #3 and #5]
Portland [i.e. deficient in #1, #2 and #4]

Below this 2nd group, there is a 3rd tier, which contains individual teams that are not quite where the others are … as of yet … in terms of “readiness” to advance beyond the 2nd Round of the Playoffs, based on the criteria above AND specific personnel absences, including:

New Orleans [i.e. missing a key player in David West]
Memphis [i.e. Playoffs newbies]
Indiana [Playoffs newbies]

Given how close the top 5 teams are to one another this year, and to what degree the eventual outcome can/will be determined by a single crucial injury, at an inopportune moment …

Kudos to Marc Spears [Yahoo! Sports, NBA Analyst] for going out on a limb, early on, with his prediction for this year’s championship-winning team.

Related:
Odds To Win The NBA Championship

FYI …

This is the “unofficial entry” for yours truly in the annual contest run by Henry Abbott: 

Eastern Conference, Quarter-finals

[1] Chicago [QIR/#1] vs [8] Indiana [QIR/#19]
SELECTION: Bulls in 5.

[4] Orlando [QIR/#3] vs [5] Atlanta [QIR/#15]
SELECTION: Magic in 7.

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[2] Miami [QIR/#2] vs [7] Philadelphia [QIR/#13]
SELECTION: Heat in 5.

[3] Boston [QIR/#5] vs [6] New York [QIR/#25]
SELECTION: Celtics in 6.

===================================

Western Conference, Quarter-finals

[1] San Antonio [QIR/#7] vs [8] Memphis [QIR/#9]
SELECTION: Spurs in 5.

[4] Oklahoma City [QIR/#9] vs [5] Denver [QIR/#12]
SELECTION: Nuggets in 6.

—————————————————————-

[2] Los Angeles [QIR/#4] vs [7] New Orleans [QIR/#6]
SELECTION: Lakers in 5.

[3] Dallas [QIR/#7] vs [6] Portland [QIR/#11]
SELECTION: Trail Blazers in 6.

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PS. You might also benefit from knowing that no other “NBA Analyst” has forecast more playoff series accurately, in advance, over the course of the last 4 years, than yours truly.

Related:

What It Takes To Win The NBA Championship

At this point of the NBA regular season schedule, each team has played at least 30 games.

Given the history of the NBA … and what it actually takes to be able to win 4 consecutive best-of-seven games series in the playoffs … there is now a strong possibility that the 2010-2011 League Championship will eventually be won by 1 of the 8 teams shown above in “neon green”.

To everyone who takes the time to visit this little corner of the blogosphere …

Happy New Year!

Philadelphia opened up the regular season schedule with a W-L Record of 3-13:

but, over the course of their last 9 games:

have displayed a substantially improved level of performance.

Q1. What, specifically, did the Sixers do to set right their formerly listing ship? 

A1. After winning Games 17 & 18, their head coach made a simple adjustment to his ‘regular rotation’ for Game 19 [L @ Atlanta] …

Game Logs for Evan Turner [OG-SF/6-7, 210, 1st-yr]

Game Logs for Jodie Meeks [OG/6-4, 208, 2nd-yr]

which improved the perimeter shooting of the Starting Five, provided better overall balance to both the 1st and 2nd units and, simultaneously, rectified the defensive short-comings within each group:

… and, then, despite the loss incurred – after a modest 2-game winning streak - had the good Basketball Sense to stick with it in the aftermath.

Kudos to Doug Collins!

… for eventually figuring out that:

- Jodie Meeks’ specific skill-set, as an under-sized OG who can shoot the ball adequately on perimeter jump-shots and is a good defender, is a ’best fit’ when the majority of his minutes are played between Jrue Holiday and Andre Iguodala

- Evan Turner’s specific skill-set, as a multi-dimensional role player, is a ‘best fit’ when coming off the bench at either Wing position with the 2nd unit

- Thaddeus Young’s specific skill-set, as a multi-dimensional role player, is a ‘best fit’ when coming off the bench at either Forward with the 2nd unit

- Marreese Speights’ specific skill-set, as a fairly limited but also multi-facited Big Man, is a ‘best fit coming of the bench, in arrears of Spencer Hawes … as opposed to having a perpetual ‘DNP-CD’ listed beside his name in the boxscore

- Andres Nocioni’s specific skill-set, as a fairly limited but also multi-facited veteran Forward, is a ‘best fit’ coming off the bench, exclusively, in a non-rotational/emergency-use-only capacity  

- Darius Songaila’s specific skill-set, as a fairly limited but also multi-facited veteran Forward, is a ‘best fit’ coming off the bench, exclusively, in a non-rotational/emergency-use-only capacity  

- Craig Brackins’ specific skill-set, as a somewhat athletic but still largely under-developed young Big, is a ‘best fit’ when wearing a suit at the end of the bench

- Jason Kapono’s rightful place, amongst this specific collection of teammates, is on the bench sitting beside Master Brackins

If the 76ers elect to use this rotation for the next phase of their schedule:

… which is a good deal more difficult than their previous stretch of 9 games …

it will at least give them a solid chance to get back into the hunt for the No. 8 position in the Eastern Conference, and then perform as a decent lower-middle-of-the-pack team for the balance of the season … in competition with the Pistons, Bobcats, Raptors and Cavaliers.  

Watch the following sequence of events and then identify correctly what crucial mistake the 76ers made which resulted in their loss to the Celtics [on Thursday]:

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Should they have gone “under” the pick, instead of switching?

Should they have gone “over” the pick, “shown hard” with Garnett’s defender, and then “recovered back” to their original checks?

Should they have ”trapped” the pick?

Or, should they have done something else, altogether different?

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The specific take from this corner …

The main mistake which Doug Collins made in this instance was his deployment of this specific Group of 5 players against the Quintet that Doc Rivers put on the floor:

PG – Holiday vs Rondo
OG – Williams vs Robinson
SF – Meeks vs Allen
PF – Iguodala vs Pierce
C – Young vs Garnett

which amounted to the following “Individual Match-up” categories:

For Philadelphia -> 3 Smalls [i.e. Robinson, Rondo & Allen] + 2 Mediums [Iguodala & Young]

vs

For Boston -> 3 Smalls [Robinson, Rondo & Allen] + 1 Medium [Pierce] + 1 Big [Garnett]

What Doug Collins should have done instead was use THIS specific Group of 5 players on this final possession:

PG – Iguodala [Medium] vs Rondo [Small]
OG – Williams [Small] vs Robinson [Small]
SF – Meeks [Small] vs Allen [Small]
PF – Young [Medium] vs Pierce [Medium]
C – Battie [Big] vs Garnett [Big]

… and the 76ers would have probably won this game outright, by getting a defensive stop on this possession, regardless of what specific play the Celtics decided to use.

Understanding properly how “Individual Match-ups” actually work is the key to understanding the NBA game.

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PS. If you actually watched this game on television, like yours truly did, then, you should have been able to see the look of absolute horror which came over the face of Ed Stefanski [Sixers GM] … believe it, or not, it was very much like this … when he first surveyed the floor, saw the 5 players Coach Collins sent out, from the preceding time-out, to defend against the 5 players deployed by Doc Rivers, and mouthed the following 5 words of fright and dismay: “No! What are you doing!” Right now, the 76ers might well be the best 7-15 team in the NBA, considering they have lost at least 3 games [i.e. L1, in OT; L2, in OT; and L3] in mind-boggling fashion. :-(

Related:

The Celtics game-winning pick & roll and the Sixers poor defense of it