Posts Tagged ‘Philadelphia 76ers’

Legitimate Contenders to Win the 2012 NBA Championship: Part II

Friday, February 24th, 2012

Where does your favourite team rank at the halfway point in the regular season schedule?

Legitimate Contenders to Win the 2012 NBA Championship

[as of Thu-Feb-23-2012]

Team PDR PAR RDR QR QIR WCR ECR
Bulls 1 2 1 4 1 1
Heat 2 14 4 20 T-2 2
Lakers 12 6 2 20 T-2 1
Pacers 8 9 8 25 4 3
76ers 3 1 22 26 5 4
Clippers 9 15 3 27 T-6 2
Magic 10 4 13 27 T-6 5
Thunder 3 20 6 29 T-8 3
Mavericks 7 4 18 29 T-8 4
Blazers 5 10 17 32 10 5
Grizzlies 15 8 10 33 11 6
Timberwolves 15 16 4 35 12 7
Hawks 13 7 21 41 T-13 6
Rockets 14 18 9 41 T-13 8
Spurs 6 16 20 42 15 9
Hornets 24 11 11 46 16 10
Celtics 18 3 26 47 17 7
Knicks 17 12 19 48 18 8
Nuggets 11 29 12 52 19 11
Cavaliers 23 23 7 53 T-20 9
Raptors 25 13 15 53 T-20 10
Jazz 19 24 13 56 22 12
Pistons 26 18 16 60 23 11
Bucks 21 21 27 69 T-24 12
Suns 22 22 25 69 T-24 13
Warriors 19 26 29 73 26 14
Nets 27 25 24 76 27 13
Kings 28 30 22 80 28 15
Wizards 29 27 27 83 29 14
Bobcats 30 27 30 87 30 15
LEGEND: PDR – Points Differential Rankng; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR – Quality Rating [i.e. PDR + PAR + RDR = QR; QIR – Quality Index Rating [i.e. QR ranking from 1-30]; WC – Western Conference Ranking; Eastern Conference Ranking.

Related:

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

Legitmate Contenders to win the 2012 NBA Championship: Part I

Tuesday, February 7th, 2012

Where is your favourite team in the race to win this year’s League Championship?

Ranking the Legitimate Contenders 

to Win the NBA Championship

[as of Mon-Feb-06-2012]

Team PDR PAR RDR QR QIR WCR ECR
Bulls 2 3 1 6 1 1
Lakers 12 5 2 19 2 1
Pacers 10 4 9 23 T-3 T-2
Heat 3 16 4 23 T-3 T-2
76ers 1 1 23 25 5 4
Blazers 4 10 12 26 T-6 T-2
Thunder 5 17 4 26 T-6 T-2
Hawks 7 7 15 29 8 5
Spurs 8 12 15 35 T-9 4
Celtics 9 2 24 35 T-9 6
Mavericks 11 6 19 36 T-11 5
Magic 16 8 12 36 T-11 7
Timberwolves 15 18 6 39 13 6
Rockets 14 20 6 40 14 7
Nuggets 6 25 10 41 T-15 T-8
Hornets 24 11 6 41 T-15 T-8
Grizzlies 17 9 17 43 17 10
Cavaliers 22 22 3 47 18 8
Clippers 12 24 12 48 19 11
Knicks 18 14 19 51 20 9
Jazz 18 23 11 52 21 12
Raptors 25 13 18 56 22 10
Bucks 20 15 27 62 23 11
Pistons 28 19 21 68 24 12
Suns 23 20 26 69 25 13
Nets 26 26 22 74 26 13
Warriors 21 28 30 79 27 14
Kings 27 30 25 82 28 15
Wizards 29 27 29 85 29 14
Bobcats 30 29 28 87 30 15
LEGEND: PDR – Points Differential Rankng; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR – Quality Rating [i.e. PDR + PAR + RDR = QR; QIR – Quality Index Rating [i.e. QR ranking from 1-30]; WC – Western Conference Ranking; Eastern Conference Ranking.

Related:

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

The correct answer to the key question about the 76ers …

Thursday, February 2nd, 2012

is that:

=========================

Justin Kubatko, of Basketball-Reference, doesn’t mess around with numbers. He doesn’t get all excited about things that don’t matter. And the other day in The New York Times he wrote:

There have been 38 teams in N.B.A. history with a point differential of at least plus-10.0 points a game through their first 18 games. The median winning percentage of those teams was .753, which translates to 49.7 wins over a 66-game season. Additionally, 24 of those teams advanced to the N.B.A. finals, with 19 claiming the championship.

In short, mediocre teams do not go on extended runs in which they routinely outscored opponents by double-digit margins. If history serves as a guide, Philadelphia is a contender.

In other words, there are interesting numbers to suggest the Sixers are even money to win the title this year. Which is one nutty thing to suggest.

On the other hand, half the teams that have started this hot in NBA history did not win the title. And there is good reason to suspect these Sixers may fall into that category. They have played just about the easiest schedule in the NBA. When they have played the power teams on the road they have generally lost — at Portland, at Utah, at New York, and badly at Miami. They have also lost at home to the Nuggets and (gulp) Nets.

=========================

Unfortunately, Philadelphia is not yet a legitimate contender to win the NBA Championship this season … since there are 5 teams in the Eastern Conference with more overall talent on their roster.

Although Philadelphia is a much better team than many so-called “NBA experts” may have erroneously projected in the off and/or pre season, in reality, this team is also not nearly as good as the number-crunchers might try to tell you it is, at this point in the season, based on their marginal of victory to-date … and, until the 76ers actually have Top 4 talent on their roster, they should not ever be considered as one of the few legitimate contending teams in the hunt for the NBA Championship in a given season, at least, by an authentic NBA expert.

Initial Assessment of Team Rosters in NBA’s Eastern Conference

Tuesday, January 3rd, 2012

There are three main phases to the game of basketball:

i. Offense;
ii. Defense; and,
iii. Rebounding.

Developing an accurate understanding of the overall NBA talent which exists on the roster for each team at the beginning of the season is a fundamental aspect of properly evaluating the day-to-day goings-on across the league over the course of the season.

INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF TEAM ROSTERS IN NBA’S EASTERN CONFERENCE [as of Sun-Dec-25-2011]

NBA Playoffs are set for tip-off!

Saturday, April 16th, 2011

The NBA Playoffs are set to tip-off in approximately 40 minutes.

This year, there are a number of teams with legitimate aspirations to win the league championship, including:

Chicago Bulls [EC1]
Miami Heat [EC2]
Boston Celtics [EC3]
San Antonio Spurs [WC1]
LA Lakers [WC2]

based on:

#1. The overall ability level of their rotational players;

#2. The specific ability levels of their bonafide “star” players;

#3. The ability level of their coach [and his staff];

#4. The prior experience of their rotational players; and,

#5. The prior experience of their coach [and his staff]. 

Below this elite group, there is a larger 2nd tier, that is very strong, as well, but with individial teams that fall just short of the 1st tier, in one or more of the above criteria, including:

Dallas [i.e. deficient in #2]
Orlando [i.e. deficient in #2]
Oklahoma City [i.e. deficient in #3 and #4]
Denver [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4] 
New York [i.e. deficient in #1 and #3]
Philadelphia [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4]
Atlanta [i.e. deficient in #2, #3 and #5]
Portland [i.e. deficient in #1, #2 and #4]

Below this 2nd group, there is a 3rd tier, which contains individual teams that are not quite where the others are … as of yet … in terms of “readiness” to advance beyond the 2nd Round of the Playoffs, based on the criteria above AND specific personnel absences, including:

New Orleans [i.e. missing a key player in David West]
Memphis [i.e. Playoffs newbies]
Indiana [Playoffs newbies]

Given how close the top 5 teams are to one another this year, and to what degree the eventual outcome can/will be determined by a single crucial injury, at an inopportune moment …

Kudos to Marc Spears [Yahoo! Sports, NBA Analyst] for going out on a limb, early on, with his prediction for this year’s championship-winning team.

Related:
Odds To Win The NBA Championship

TrueHoop’s Stat Geek Smackdown: NBA Playoffs, 1st Round Series Winners

Friday, April 15th, 2011

FYI …

This is the “unofficial entry” for yours truly in the annual contest run by Henry Abbott: 

Eastern Conference, Quarter-finals

[1] Chicago [QIR/#1] vs [8] Indiana [QIR/#19]
SELECTION: Bulls in 5.

[4] Orlando [QIR/#3] vs [5] Atlanta [QIR/#15]
SELECTION: Magic in 7.

—————————————————————-

[2] Miami [QIR/#2] vs [7] Philadelphia [QIR/#13]
SELECTION: Heat in 5.

[3] Boston [QIR/#5] vs [6] New York [QIR/#25]
SELECTION: Celtics in 6.

===================================

Western Conference, Quarter-finals

[1] San Antonio [QIR/#7] vs [8] Memphis [QIR/#9]
SELECTION: Spurs in 5.

[4] Oklahoma City [QIR/#9] vs [5] Denver [QIR/#12]
SELECTION: Nuggets in 6.

—————————————————————-

[2] Los Angeles [QIR/#4] vs [7] New Orleans [QIR/#6]
SELECTION: Lakers in 5.

[3] Dallas [QIR/#7] vs [6] Portland [QIR/#11]
SELECTION: Trail Blazers in 6.

——————————————-

PS. You might also benefit from knowing that no other “NBA Analyst” has forecast more playoff series accurately, in advance, over the course of the last 4 years, than yours truly. ;-)

Legitimate contenders to win the 2010-2011 NBA championship, Playoff Preview Edition

Friday, April 15th, 2011
TEAMWESTEASTPDPDRPAPARRDRDRQRQIR
Bulls#1+7.3291.32+5.8151
Heat#2+7.5194.66+3.03102
Magic#3+5.5593.74+3.52113
Lakers#1+6.1395.48+2.55164
Celtics#4+5.4691.11-0.818255
Hornets#2+0.91494.05+0.99286
Spurs#3+5.7498.014+0.711297
Mavericks#4+4.2896.010+0.711297
Thunder#5+3.89101.018+2.26339
Grizzlies#5+2.31097.613+0.810339
Blazers#7+1.51294.87-0.4173611
Nuggets#8+4.87102.721+0.7113912
76ers#5+1.51297.512-0.8184213
Hawks#6-0.81695.89-1.3224715
Pacers#7-1.119100.917+0.3155119
Knicks#8+0.815105.727-3.5287025
LEGEND: PD - Points Differential; PDR - Points Differential Ranking; PA - Points Allowed; PAR - Points Allowed Ranking; RD - Rebounding Differential; Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR - Quality Rating [i.e. QR = PDR + PAR + RDR]; QIR - Quality Index Ranking [i.e. No. 1-30].

PLEASE NOTE: Each NBA Champion for the last 10 years has had a QR ≤ 34.

Related:

What It Takes To Win The NBA Championship

Legitimate Contenders In The NBA, 2010-2011: Part 1

Saturday, January 1st, 2011

At this point of the NBA regular season schedule, each team has played at least 30 games.

 

LEGITIMATE CONTENDERS TO WIN THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP


[as of Friday, December 31, 2010]

 

TEAM

W

L

W%

EAST

WEST

PDR

PAR

RDR

QR

QIR

Heat

25

9

.735

1

 

1

2

6

9

1

Celtics

24

7

.774

2

 

3

1

9

13

T-2

Bulls

21

10

.677

3

 

5

7

1

13

T-2

Magic

21

12

.636

4

 

7

5

2

14

4

Spurs

28

4

.875

 

1

2

11

9

22

5

Lakers

23

10

.697

 

2

4

14

5

23

6

Mavericks

24

7

.774

 

3

6

6

15

27

T-7

Hornets

19

14

.576

 

4

13

3

11

27

T-7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blazers

17

16

.515

 

5

15

9

12

36

9

Hawks

21

14

.600

5

 

11

8

18

37

10

Bobcats

11

20

.355

6

 

25

11

4

40

11

Jazz

22

11

.667

 

6

8

10

23

41

T-12

Thunder

23

11

.676

 

7

9

20

12

41

T-12

Bucks

12

18

.400

7

 

20

4

17

41

14

Clippers

10

23

.303

 

8

21

19

2

42

15

76ers

13

20

.394

8

 

18

11

19

48

16

Rockets

16

16

.500

 

9

12

24

16

52

17

Pacers

14

17

.452

9

 

17

15

22

54

18

Nuggets

18

13

.581

 

10

10

25

21

56

T-19

Raptors

11

21

.344

10

 

22

26

8

56

T-19

Grizzlies

14

18

.438

 

11

16

17

24

57

21

Nets

9

24

.273

11

 

26

16

20

62

22

Kings

6

23

.207

 

12

28

21

14

63

23

Timberwolves

8

25

.242

 

13

28

30

6

64

24

Knicks

18

14

.562

12

 

14

28

25

67

25

Pistons

11

22

.333

13

 

24

18

27

69

26

Warriors

13

19

.406

 

14

23

27

27

77

27

Suns

14

17

.452

 

15

19

29

30

78

T-28

Wizards

8

23

.258

14

 

27

22

29

78

T-28

Cavaliers

8

24

.250

15

 

30

23

26

79

30

LEGEND: W – Wins; L – Losses; Win% – Winning Percentage; PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR – Quality Rating [i.e. PDR + PAR + RDR = QR]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [i.e. QR/#1-30]; * – Clinched playoff position.

Given the history of the NBA … and what it actually takes to be able to win 4 consecutive best-of-seven games series in the playoffs … there is now a strong possibility that the 2010-2011 League Championship will eventually be won by 1 of the 8 teams shown above in “neon green”.

To everyone who takes the time to visit this little corner of the blogosphere …

Happy New Year! :-)

What the 76ers did to turn around their season

Thursday, December 16th, 2010

Philadelphia opened up the regular season schedule with a W-L Record of 3-13:

G#

Oct

Opponent

Result

W-L Rec

1

Wed 27

 vs Miami

  L 87-97

0-1

2

 Fri 29

 vs Atlanta

0-2

3

 Sat 30

 @ Indiana

  L 86-99

0-3

G#

Nov

Opponent

Result

W-L Rec

4

 Tue 02

0-4

5

 Wed 03

 vs Indiana

1-4

6

 Fri 05

 vs Cleveland

1-5

7

 Sun 07

 @ New York

2-5

8

 Wed 10

2-6

9

 Fri 12

 @ Dallas

  L 90-99

2-7

10

 Sat 13

2-8

11

 Tue 16

 @ Cleveland

2-9

12

 Wed 17

 vs Toronto

  L 86-94

2-10

13

 Fri 19

 vs Milwaukee

  W 90-79

3-10

14

 Tue 23

3-11

15

 Wed 24

 @ Toronto

3-12

16

 Fri 26

 @ Miami

  L 90-99

3-13

but, over the course of their last 9 games:

G#

Nov

Opponent

Result

W-L Rec

17

 Sat 27

 vs New Jersey

4-13

18

 Tue 30

 vs Portland

  W 88-79

5-13

G#

Dec

Opponent

Result

W-L Rec

19

 Fri 03

 @ Atlanta

  L 88-93

5-14

20

 Sat 04

 vs Charlotte

6-14

21

 Tue 07

 vs Cleveland

7-14

22

 Thu 09

 vs Boston

7-15

23

 Sun 12

  W 88-70

8-15

24

 Tue 14

  W 82-77

9-15

25

 Wed 15

10-15

have displayed a substantially improved level of performance.

Q1. What, specifically, did the Sixers do to set right their formerly listing ship? 

A1. After winning Games 17 & 18, their head coach made a simple adjustment to his ‘regular rotation’ for Game 19 [L @ Atlanta] …

Game Logs for Evan Turner [OG-SF/6-7, 210, 1st-yr]

Game Logs for Jodie Meeks [OG/6-4, 208, 2nd-yr]

which improved the perimeter shooting of the Starting Five, provided better overall balance to both the 1st and 2nd units and, simultaneously, rectified the defensive short-comings within each group:

PHILADELPHIA’S NEW & IMPROVED
9-MAN ROTATION, AS OF GAME 12

STARTERS

PG

OG

SF

PF

C

Jrue
Holiday

Jodie
Meeks

Andre
Iguodala

Elton
Brand

Spencer
Hawes

KEY SUBS

PG

OG-SF

SF-PF

C

Lou
Williams

Evan
Turner

Thaddeus
Young

Marreese
Speights

RESERVES

 

 

SF

PF

C

 

 

Andres
Nocioni

Darius
Songaila

Tony
Battie

EXTRAS/OUTS

 

 

SF

PF

 

 

 

Jason
Kapono

Craig
Brackins

 

… and, then, despite the loss incurred – after a modest 2-game winning streak - had the good Basketball Sense to stick with it in the aftermath.

Kudos to Doug Collins!

… for eventually figuring out that:

- Jodie Meeks’ specific skill-set, as an under-sized OG who can shoot the ball adequately on perimeter jump-shots and is a good defender, is a ’best fit’ when the majority of his minutes are played between Jrue Holiday and Andre Iguodala

- Evan Turner’s specific skill-set, as a multi-dimensional role player, is a ‘best fit’ when coming off the bench at either Wing position with the 2nd unit

- Thaddeus Young’s specific skill-set, as a multi-dimensional role player, is a ‘best fit’ when coming off the bench at either Forward with the 2nd unit

- Marreese Speights’ specific skill-set, as a fairly limited but also multi-facited Big Man, is a ‘best fit coming of the bench, in arrears of Spencer Hawes … as opposed to having a perpetual ‘DNP-CD’ listed beside his name in the boxscore

- Andres Nocioni’s specific skill-set, as a fairly limited but also multi-facited veteran Forward, is a ‘best fit’ coming off the bench, exclusively, in a non-rotational/emergency-use-only capacity  

- Darius Songaila’s specific skill-set, as a fairly limited but also multi-facited veteran Forward, is a ‘best fit’ coming off the bench, exclusively, in a non-rotational/emergency-use-only capacity  

- Craig Brackins’ specific skill-set, as a somewhat athletic but still largely under-developed young Big, is a ‘best fit’ when wearing a suit at the end of the bench

- Jason Kapono’s rightful place, amongst this specific collection of teammates, is on the bench sitting beside Master Brackins

If the 76ers elect to use this rotation for the next phase of their schedule:

G#

Dec

Opponent

Result

W-L Rec

26

 Fri 17

 vs LA Lakers

?

 

27

 Sat 18

 @ Orlando  

?

 

28

 Tue 21

 @ Chicago  

?

 

29

 Wed 22

 @ Boston  

?

 

30

 Sun 26

 @ Denver  

?

 

31

 Mon 27

 @ Golden State  

?

 

32

 Wed 29

 @ Phoenix  

?

 

33

 Fri 31

 @ LA Lakers  

?

 

G#

January

Opponent

Result

W-L Rec

34

 Mon 03

 @ New Orleans  

?

 

… which is a good deal more difficult than their previous stretch of 9 games …

it will at least give them a solid chance to get back into the hunt for the No. 8 position in the Eastern Conference, and then perform as a decent lower-middle-of-the-pack team for the balance of the season … in competition with the Pistons, Bobcats, Raptors and Cavaliers.  

Match-up miscue leads to loss for 76ers

Saturday, December 11th, 2010

Watch the following sequence of events and then identify correctly what crucial mistake the 76ers made which resulted in their loss to the Celtics [on Thursday]:

————————————-

Should they have gone “under” the pick, instead of switching?

Should they have gone “over” the pick, “shown hard” with Garnett’s defender, and then “recovered back” to their original checks?

Should they have ”trapped” the pick?

Or, should they have done something else, altogether different?

————————————-

The specific take from this corner …

The main mistake which Doug Collins made in this instance was his deployment of this specific Group of 5 players against the Quintet that Doc Rivers put on the floor:

PG – Holiday vs Rondo
OG – Williams vs Robinson
SF – Meeks vs Allen
PF – Iguodala vs Pierce
C – Young vs Garnett

which amounted to the following “Individual Match-up” categories:

For Philadelphia -> 3 Smalls [i.e. Robinson, Rondo & Allen] + 2 Mediums [Iguodala & Young]

vs

For Boston -> 3 Smalls [Robinson, Rondo & Allen] + 1 Medium [Pierce] + 1 Big [Garnett]

What Doug Collins should have done instead was use THIS specific Group of 5 players on this final possession:

PG – Iguodala [Medium] vs Rondo [Small]
OG – Williams [Small] vs Robinson [Small]
SF – Meeks [Small] vs Allen [Small]
PF – Young [Medium] vs Pierce [Medium]
C – Battie [Big] vs Garnett [Big]

… and the 76ers would have probably won this game outright, by getting a defensive stop on this possession, regardless of what specific play the Celtics decided to use.

Understanding properly how “Individual Match-ups” actually work is the key to understanding the NBA game.

———————————–

PS. If you actually watched this game on television, like yours truly did, then, you should have been able to see the look of absolute horror which came over the face of Ed Stefanski [Sixers GM] … believe it, or not, it was very much like this … when he first surveyed the floor, saw the 5 players Coach Collins sent out, from the preceding time-out, to defend against the 5 players deployed by Doc Rivers, and mouthed the following 5 words of fright and dismay: “No! What are you doing!” Right now, the 76ers might well be the best 7-15 team in the NBA, considering they have lost at least 3 games [i.e. L1, in OT; L2, in OT; and L3] in mind-boggling fashion. :-(

Related:

The Celtics game-winning pick & roll and the Sixers poor defense of it