khandor’s sports blog

Since taking over the operation of the Indiana Pacers, from Donnie Walsh [Mar-24-2008, on a full-time basis, Larry Legend has had to endure a great many insults from NBA observers - experts and non-experts alike - who have asserted that ... although he was an all-time great NBA player ... he was somehow in over his head, as a GM, and incapable of constructing a top flight franchise, based on the quality of his work in that capacity to that point in time.

Well ...

Anyone who tries to tell you THAT today, you should simply laugh at.

3 seasons ago the Pacers added Roy Hibbert [C, 1st Rd Draft Pick] to their roster.

2 seasons ago the Pacers added Tyler Hansbrough [PF, 1st Rd Draft Pick], AJ Price [PG, 2nd Rd Draft Pick] and Dahntay Jones [OG/SF, veteran FA] to their roster.

Last season the Pacers added Paul George [SF/OG, 1st Rd Draft Pick], Lance Stephenson [PG/OG, 2nd Rd Draft Pick] and Darren Collison [PG, 1st Rd Draft Pick/2009, from New Orleans] and James Posey [SF/PF, veteran FA] to their roster … and made the playoffs for the first time in 4 years.

This off-season the Pacers have added George Hill [PG/OG] to their roster, affirmed Larry Bird as the head of their overall operation, affirmed last season’s interim head coach, Frank Vogel, as their permanent bench boss, in addition to naming Brian Shaw his lead assistant … and now, it seems, have also hired Kevin Pritchard, as their erstwhile GM-in-waiting.

As has been mentioned in this space on different occasions over the course of the last 24 months, or so …

The Indiana Pacers are in the midst of performing a successful franchise re-build in a first-class way.

When a NBA team makes the decision to place their trust in someone with the track-record of Larry Bird … and, then, has the wherewithal to stick with him, come h*ll or high water … it will eventually be rewarded in a substantive way.

Kudos to, both, Herb Simon [Pacers owner] and Larry Legend!

Prior to January 30, 2011 the Pacers’ W-L Record was 17-27/.386.

After firing Jim O’Brien, however, the Pacers immediately began to play much better basketball.

Conventional wisdom says that this immediate uptick in performance was simply a temporary upsurge which typically occurs for a relatively short time-period, before regressing to the mean, based on the over-riding abilities of the players on their roster, rather than the abilities of their newly appointed head coach [i.e. Frank Vogel].

Then, when the NBA Trade Deadline came and went …

“Indiana Was Not Able to Get It All Together,” Says Grizzlies Owner About Failed OJ Mayo Trade

UPDATE: Larry Bird on Failed Trade: Deal Pulled Off the Table with Two Minutes to Go

with a failed effort to complete a three-team trade with the Memphis Grizzlies and the New Orleans Hornets which reportedly would have:

Cost Them

- Josh McRoberts/PF [starter]
- Brandon Rush/OG [back-up]
- Solomon Jones/PF-C [back-up]

while,

Netting Them

- OJ Mayo/PG-OG ['quasi' starter]

the Pacers subsequently crashed down to earth in their last 8 games:

and are now, supposedly, experiencing a variety of internal problems:

Larry Bird Criticizes His Players: “We’re Just Not Getting the Effort”

that have caused their team to fail to compete on a game-to-game basis.

============================

Looking closely at what has happened with the Pacers this season, and especially since the events of February 24, 2011 …

Is a simple case of regression to the mean really what has caused this team to lose 7 of their last 8 games?

Mike Dunleavy’s Game Log for the 2010-2011 Season

PART I, Games played from October 27, 2010 to January 30, 2011 => 17-27
PART II, Games played from January 31 to February 23, 2011 => 9-3
PART III, Games played since February 24, 2011 => 1-7

Or, is there another equally simple but, possibly, even MORE plausibe explanation for this?

============================

When an otherwise solid NBA team – i.e. based on the relative quality of its player personnel - experiences a sudden and major decline in performance, it is frequently attributable to the absence of one [or more] key player[s] from their line-up, who is [are] primarily responsible for creating and minimizing a slew of individual mis-match advantages for their team when playing against average-to-above-average-to-very-good opponents.

As far as the Pacers are concerned, Mike Dunleavy is, in fact, this type of player and this corner would simply suggest that:

#1. Indiana has a much improved chance to play the type of game it wants to play under the direction of Frank Vogel … and win! … when it has a 6-9, 230 lb, relatively agile, multi-dimensional OG, like Mike Dunleavy, in its starting line-up, beside:

PG, Darren Collison [6-0, 160]
OG,
SF, Danny Granger [6-9, 228]
PF, Josh McRoberts [6-10, 240]
C, Roy Hibbert [7-2, 278]

[with a supporting cast of AJ Price, TJ Ford, Lance Stephenson, Brandon Rush, Dahntay Jones, Paul George, James Posey, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster and Solomon Jones] 

than it does when forced to play without him against the likes of Utah, Phoenix, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Houston and Philadelphia;

and,

#2. When Indiana tips-off against the Raptors later-on this evening, it should come as no surprise at all to see the Pacers get back in the W column, since some combination of Brandon Rush [6-6, 210], Dahntay Jones [6-6, 210], Lance Stephenson [6-5, 210] and Paul George [ 6-8, 210] should be more than capable of competing effectively, at the OG position, against Toronto’s troika of DeMar DeRozan [6-7, 220], Sonny Weems [6-6, 203] and Leandro Barbosa [6-3, 202].

Initial Thoughts on last night’s NBA Draft concerning the Toronto Raptors

#1. In all likelihood, Ed Davis [PF, North Carolina] …

is going to become a very solid NBA player, sometime down-the-road.

#2. When it comes to properly evaluating which specific player was THE BEST available when the Raptors made the No. 13 [overall] Selection of the 2010 NBA Draft, last night …

———————-

Ed Davis will help possibly Bosh-less Raptors

Maybe the best thing about the pick is this: Davis wasn’t simply selected because he plays Bosh’s position. He was selected because he was, in the minds of the brain trust, the best player on the board when the Raptors used their 13th-overall pick. Taking the best-available talent is always a savvy strategy, which is to say it hasn’t always been the Raptors’ strategy. (See Araujo, Rafael.)

———————-

those who would try to tell you that Toronto’s basketball brain-trust did, in fact, choose THE correct player will eventually be shown to have made a serious mistake in judgment.

Tracking the development of how exactly a team that makes its 1st Round Draft choice, on the basis of a positional need and then tells its fanbase that it did the exact opposite thing

The first 5 selections went pretty much as planned:

1 Washington Wizards – John Wall, PG
2 Philadelphia 76ers – Evan Turner, G/F
3 New Jersey Nets … in need of dynamic Wing or a conventional Power Forward – Derrick Favors, PF
4 Minnesota Timberwolves … in need of a dynamic Wing or a conventional Big Man – Wesley Johnson, F
5 Sacramento Kings … in need of a Big Man – DeMarcus Cousins, C

Then, the Golden State Warriors became the first team to by-pass the opportunity to add a highly-rated PF from a reknowned Atlantic Coast Conference [ACC] program who has been properly identified, to this point, as a very good rebounder and shot-blocker with good length, overall athleticism, and a solid hoops IQ.

6 Golden State Warriors … in need of a Big Man – Ekpe Udoh, PF

Then, the Detroit Pistons proceeded to do the exact same thing.

7 Detroit Pistons … in need of a Big Man – Greg Monroe, PF/C

Then, the LA Clippers did precisely what the LA Clippers were expected to do.

8 Los Angeles Clippers – Al-Farouq Aminu, SF

Then the ‘fun’ began.

9 Utaj Jazz … in need of a Big Man – Gordon Hayward, SF

Raptors fans might want to ask themselves this question:

“How come Kevin O’Connor decided to go in this direction when the chances are pretty good that Carlos Boozer [PF/C] will NOT be returning to Salt Lake City in the fall? … when different “stat-based basketball gurus” have suggested that Gordon Hayward – as a relatively unathletic Small Forward – will be a bust?”

[PLEASE NOTE: This is the same GM who selected Deron Williams over Chris Paul a few seasons back; and, whose franchise has missed the playoffs, oh, about 1 time in the last 100 years, or so; and, played its way into the NBA Finals, during the 1990's; and, consistently been a top 6 team in the Western Conference for the last decade ... while operating under the same Hall Of Fame head coach, i.e. Jerry Sloan.] 

Then, Larry Legend went to work, and dipping into his ‘infamous bag of tricks’ …

10 Indiana Pacers … in need of a Point Guard – Paul George, SF

selected a college sophmore who was deemed to be not ‘good enough’ to have earned a place on the WAC all-conference team this season … but, who was also perceived by most NBA teams – not expressly looking for a big man – to be, perhaps, THE Guard/Forward with the HIGHEST UPSIDE in the entire 2010 Draft, having rocketed up to a potential ‘Lottery Pick’ over the course of just the last 3 months.

[PLEASE NOTE: This is the same GM who decided not to re-sign Jarrett Jack, PG last summer, as a restricted free agent, on a reasonable contract; once coached his team to the NBA Finals; and, has recently gone about the task of gradually re-building the Indiana Pacers into a legitimate franchise again, in the unseemly aftermath of The Brawl At The Palace ... since taking over from Donnie Walsh, on a full-time basis ... as one of the all-time great players in the history of the game.]

Then, Jeff Bower … who has blown both hot and cold during his tenure, as GM for New Orleans … made a serious mistake.

11 New Orleans Hornets [picking for the Oklahoma City Thunder] … in need of a Big Man – Cole Aldrich, C

Then, Chris Wallace … who has blown mostly cold during his tenure, as GM for Memphis … made a moderate mistake.

12 Memphis Grizzlies – Xavier Henry, SF

Then the Toronto Raptors had the chance to select THE BEST available basketball player still on the Draft Board … regardless of their positional need … and, proceeded to whiff, albeit by just a few inches.

[PLEASE NOTE: Luke Babbitt will play next season for the Portland Trail Blazers, and was selected in last night's Draft by their out-going GM, Kevin Pritchard, who is generally considered to have done a fabulous job during his tenure with their team, successfully overseeing the transformation of the once reknowned "Jailblazers" to one of the best still-youngish teams in the NBA, with legitimate title-winning aspirations down-the-road.]

It says in this corner that players like:

1 John Wall

2 Evan Turner

3 Al-Farouq Aminu

4 Gordon Hayward

5 Paul George

and

6 Luke Babbitt

simply do not come along every year in the NBA Draft, and when a franchise that really does know what it’s doing has a chance to grab one of them it does NOT willing choose to pass THAT by, in favour of a ‘solid pro prospect’ without ‘star’ upside.

Which is precisely what Toronto did, yet again, last night.

#3. The Raptors did not make this pick last night because Ed Davis was the best player still available.

The Raptors made this, specific, pick because they are now thinking that Chris Bosh will not be re-signing with their team after July 1 and they desperately needed to add a capable Power Forward to their line-up with solid long term potential, as an above average rebounder and shot-blocker, to play beside Andrea Bargnani [C] – who is horribly deficient in both of these areas – in the front-court for the foreseeable future … given the fact that each of the other Big Men candidates who they had originally targeted had already been selected by the teams slotted ahead of them in this year’s Draft.

———-

PS. FWIW, know that choosing to go with a capable player like Solomon Alabi [C] over an exceptional ‘NBA talent’ like Hassan Whiteside [C], as an additional pick scooped up from the 2nd Round, in return for cash considerations, actually fits into the exact same category, i.e. as yet another opportunity lost. 

It really is amazing just how serious the ramifications can be when an organization falls in ‘puppy love‘ with an ‘ineffectual’ player and then ‘ties its can to him’, come h*ll or high water.

Far too many times, this type of nonsensical decision results in years of under-achieving flatline performance for an outfit that could otherwise have gradually risen to eventually become one of the best in the league, if it would have been aware of this player’s actual deficiencies, in the first place, and removed him from their roster at the earliest possible point in time.

When this corner has to read the following example of a grossly incorrect statement/observation … from a Basketball Acumen perspective … from a significant segment of the Raptors still rabid fanbase:

————————

A Road Map For The Raptors 2010 Draft

If George is off the board, a distinct possibility, if I’m BC, I draft Cole Aldrich (assuming he’s still on the board at 13 as well of course.)  No, he’s not the biggest upside guy in the world, but I truly believe he can become a shot-blocking, solid rebounding big man at the next level akin to Joel Przybilla.  This would allow Toronto to then move Andrea to the 4, a position he’s more suited to play and one I feel that will minimize his weaknesses.

————————

it is extremely disappointing.

The fact is …

After watching him play in the NBA for the last 4 seasons, Andrea Bargnani’s best position is, undoubtably, Center [not Power Forward].

How come, you ask?

Primarily, because this is the ONLY position on the floor where he has a hope in h*ll of not committing 6 fouls in 20 minutes of game action and/or costing his team an unholy number of points allowed on the defensive end of the floor by his inability:

i. To DEFEND adequately [A] in Transition, or against any type of [B] “Switch” situation, or against any type of [C] Pick and Roll/Pop action, or [D] in any scenario where he is required to give “off-the-ball help to a teammate” after dribble penetration has occurred;

and;

ii. To REBOUND adequately versus any type of under-sized mismatched opponent … with a superior level of quickness … at the PF position.

i.e. NBA Secret Scout nails description of Bargnani [Oct 22 2009]

As Andrea Bargnani’s PT has gradually increased over the last 3 seasons, the Raptors’ W-L record has [coincidently? or correlatively?], either, gone in the opposite direction or, at-best, flatlined:

2006-2007, 47-35, made the playoffs, 1st Rd loss to the Nets
2007-2008, 41-41, made the playoffs, 1st Rd loss to the Magic [-]
2008-2009, 33-49, failed to make the playoffs [-]
2009-2010, 40-42, failed to make the playoffs [0]

The chief reason Toronto has had to play Bargnani for increasing numbers of minutes at the Center position these last 3 seasons is NOT because the team has “wanted” to use him in this way, or because he is particularly effective at this spot but, rather, because he is actually the LEAST DESTRUCTIVE to his own team’s chances for success when he’s working at this specific position … primarily against a power-based opponent.

Secondly, if the Raptors make the decision to select Cole Aldrich [C] with the No. 13 [overall] Pick in this evening’s NBA Draft, it will do absolutely nothing to eleviate their current problem with Bargnani …

* i.e. NBA: Potential Draft Busts

* If Chris Bosh happens not to re-sign with their team, as an UFA after July 1;

AND,

* If Toronto then makes the decision to trade Hedo Turkoglu [PF] and Jose Calderon [PG], in return for other players who are of equal or less ability.

Given the following developments in the Eastern Conference this summer:

1 Cleveland, re-signs LeBron James + adds Byron Scott?
2 Orlando, ?
3 Atlanta, re-signs Joe Johnson + promotes Larry Drew
4 Boston, retains Ray Allen + Doc Rivers
5 Miami, re-signs D-Wade + adds at least 1 [and, possibly, 2] new UFA
6 Milwaukee, returns Andrew Bogut from injury + adds Corey Maggette & CDR
7 Charlotte, ?
8 Chicago, adds at least 1 [or, possibly, 2] new UFA + Thom Thibodeau
——————————————-
9 Toronto, adds the No. 13 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft
——————————————-
10 Indiana, adds the No. 10 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft
11 New York, adds at least 1 [and, possibly, 2] new UFA
12 Detroit, adds the No. 7 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft
13 Philadelphia, adds the No. 2 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft + Doug Collins
14 Washington, adds the No. 1 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft
15 New Jersey, adds the No. 3 [overall] Pick/2010 NBA Draft + Avery Johnson

and a possible 2010-2011 roster for Toronto which looks like this:

HOLDOVERS

PG: Jarret Jack/#1 and Marcus Banks/#2
OG: DeMar DeRozan/#3, Sonny Weems/#4 and Marco Belinelli/#5
SF: ?
PF: Andrea Bargnani/#6, Reggie Evans/#7 and Joey Dorsey/#8
C: Amir Johnson/#9

NEWCOMERS

* Cole Aldrich/#10
* Player 1/#11 [in return for Chris Bosh, e.g. David Lee]
* Player 2/#12 [in return for Chris Bosh, e.g. Wilson Chandler]
* Player 3/#13 [in return for Hedo Turkoglu, e.g. Andres Nocioni]
* Player 4/#14 [in return for Jose Calderon, e.g. Mo Williams]
* Player 5/#15 [2nd Pick, 2010 NBA Draft, e.g. Devin Ebanks]

in all likelihood, it would mean the Raptors will finish with less than 38 wins, again, and fail to make the playoffs for a 3rd consecutive season.

Instead of continuing to believe that Andrea Bargnani was in some way the RIGHT PLAYER for their franchise to select with the No. 1 [overall] Pick in the 2006 NBA Draft, and then still being determined to build around him going forward 5 years later … even though it will have cost them the services of Chris Bosh, in the end … what the Raptors need to do is finally bite the bullet on the entire Il Mago experiment and completely remove him from their roster.

Only then will this franchise begin to turn itself around … by recalibrating its over-riding Basketball Philosophy with a new focus on a more balanced approach to Team Offense, Team Defense and – most importantly! – Team Rebounding.

Now is the time to … quite literally … throw the baby out with the bath water!

———————————–

PS. The player who Toronto SHOULD be selecting this evening with the No. 13 [overall] Selection in the 2010 NBA Draft is one of: Al-Farouq Aminu [SF], Paul George [SF], Gordon Hayward [SF], Luke Babbitt [SF] or Hassan Whiteside [C].

This year’s draft will take place on Thursday [June 24].

According to 3 recent ‘mock drafts’, the first 10 selections are likely to play out in the following ways:

Which would then mean the following group of players will not be available to the Raptors with the #13 pick:

while at least 2 of the following group of players shown below in neon green will most likely still be available when Toronto makes the #13 selection:

The key poll question for today is:

————————————————————-

 Loading ...

————————————————————- 

Related:

Revisiting Draft Rater [includes John Hollinger's subjective Draft Board]

The 2010 NBA Draft will take place in 7 days.

This summer there are several players available who should be able to develop into outstanding NBAers, including household names like John Wall [PG/OG] and Evan Turner [OG/SF], currently atop every list of the so-called “draft experts”.

From a Raptors perspective, however, Toronto is situated in the #13 position and is, therefore, unlikely to have access to those players.

Nevertheless …

If the Raptors want to make significant strides going forward this off-season … regardless what Chris Bosh eventually decides to do, as far as re-signing with the team [or not] is concerned … their rabid fans should focus their attention on the following players who are likely to be picked in the 1st Round on Thursday, June 24, 2010:

[in alphabetical order]

Should Toronto manage to select one of these players they will have succeeded in upgrading the talent on their current roster and positioned themselves to make gradual progress up the standings in the Eastern Conference.