Posts Tagged ‘Pau Gasol’

What is REALLY going on with the Lakers …

Thursday, March 8th, 2012

This is what was written in this same space on May 25, 2011, concerning the future plight of the Los Angeles Lakers:

=========================

Lakers going in WRONG direction, if Mike Brown is their next head coach

Mike Brown has already demonstrated that he is nothing like his one-time mentor, Gregg Popovich … or, Doc Rivers … or, Rick Adelman … or, Rick Carlisle … or, the as yet, untested Brian Shaw.

Mike Brown is most definitely nothing like the ZenMaster, Phil Jackson.

Mike Brown is someone who has been incapable of exercising the required “level of control” over a superstar player – like LeBron James [in Cleveland] or Kobe Bryant [in LA] – and lacks the type of “wholly integrated system of play” which is necessary to achieve major success in the NBA.

Mike Brown is a good defensive coach. Period.

Mike Brown is not someone who will improve the Lakers’ chances of the winning the NBA title next season, or anytime soon.

The Lakers’ major problems this year had nothing to do with their defensive systems of play … and everything to do with:

i. Their overall lack of talent, in comparison with previous editions of their team;

ii. The poor play of Derek Fisher and Steve Blake;

iii. Their lack of Team Cohesion;

and,

iv. Their overall lack of offensive discipline.

Mike Brown is not the right man to effectively address the Lakers’ specific needs.

=========================

This is what the current standings look like in the NBA.

These are the lowlights of last night’s game between the Lakers and the Wizards:

The following is one example of what is being said elsewhere in the blogosphere today about the Lakers’ current plight with Mike Brown at the helm of their listing ship:

=========================

With Kobe Bryant firing away, Pau Gasol addresses Lakers’ ‘selfishness’

We hold the Lakers up for a more strident brand of criticism because, frankly, they’re smarter than most teams. And they lost on Wednesday to perhaps the least-cerebral NBA team we’ve seen in decades of watching the game. Kobe Bryant watches more tape than any player in this league. Pau Gasol knows this game (literally and figuratively) inside and out. Mike Brown is absolutely obsessed with going over film and finding statistical quirks to take advantage of.

And yet, the Lakers are 23-16, and 15th in the NBA in offense. Let that swirl for a bit — a team featuring the league’s leading scorer paired with perhaps the NBA’s two most effortless low post scorers is mediocre offensively. No amount of arguing away the gaping holes at the point guard and small forward spots can make this any better. There’s no reason the Lakers should be this poor, 39 games into a season.

Actually, there are several reasons. And though we can point to Kobe firing away on Twitter all night, this comes down to coach Mike Brown actually attempting to stand up to his star player. Something he was clearly incapable of doing in Cleveland with LeBron James, and something he’s failing miserably at in Los Angeles.

=========================

When trying to understand properly what exactly is going on with the Lakers, so far this season, it’s important to place both Mike Brown and the players on their roster in the proper perspective.

1. The Lakers still have more than enough talent on their roster to win the Pacific Division this season:

Anticipated Lakers’ demise, simple case of ‘wishful thinking’

2. Mike Brown is far from being properly described as a terrible basketball coach.

What Mike Brown is … is a terrific defensive coach who, at this point in his career, is wholly incapable of coaching a star player like Kobe Bryant the way he actually needs to be coached … i.e. with the highest degree of personal discipline and responsibility possible … on a daily basis – in conjunction with other far less-talented but, nevertheless, still elite level players like Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Metta World Peace, Troy Murphy, Josh McRoberts, Matt Barnes, Steve Blake, Derek Fisher, Luke Walton, Devin Ebanks, Darius Morris and Andrew Goudelock – in order to win a NBA Championship.

The first-year of Jim Buss’ organizational leadership for the Lakers continues to unfold in a most fascinating way.

Anticipated Lakers’ demise, simple case of ‘wishful thinking’

Friday, December 23rd, 2011

Those expecting the Lakers to take a precipitous tumble in the Western Conference standings this season … in the aftermath of “whiffing” on a trade for Chris Paul [PG] and then sending Lamar Odom [SF/PF] to Dallas … do not have an accurate understanding of just how good Devin Ebanks [SF, 2nd-yr] is most likely going to be for their team this year.

Ebanks, D Min FG % 3Pt % FT % Off Reb Ast TO Stl BS PF Pts
2010-2011 118:00 21-51 41.2 2-5 40.0 18-23 78.2 15 27 2 6 4 5 7 62
2011-2012
Pre-season/1 12:30 3-3 100.0 1-1 100.0 0-0 00.0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 7
Pre-season/2 12:33 4-6 66.7 0-0 00.0 0-0 00.0 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 8

Once Andrew Bynum’s suspension finishes and Kobe’s wrist injury fully heals, the following line-up for the Lakers:

STARTERS
Derek Fisher + Kobe Bryant + Devin Ebanks + Pau Gasol + Andrew Bynum

KEY SUBS
Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Metta World Peace, Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy

RESERVES
Jason Kapono and Luke Walton

EXTRAS
Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock and Derrick Caracter [inj.]

is still going to be formidable … as the bolded players above are actually much better than many so-called [but really illegitimate] NBA observers realize.

After the Lakers eventually use their large Traded Player Exception – obtained in exchange for Mr. Odom – it should come as no surprise at all to see this team finish with the best W-L record in the Pacific Division, once again.

Mitch Kupchak [GM] has already proven that he knows how to construct a top flight NBA team … as long as Jim Buss is able to stay out of the way.

Update:

For the benefit of those who might need some further clarification, here’s the follow-up comment which yours truly left a few minutes ago, in a related thread at PBT

Devin Ebanks [i.e. think of a better, more physical, version of Trevor Ariza] and Darius Morris [i.e. think of a young, poor man's version of Tony Parker] are both very solid young players with the ability to make positive contributions to this year’s Lakers team which desperately needed an infusion of youth on the heels of last season’s disappointing end. Josh McRoberts is the type of banger who Mike Brown has made very effective use of in the past [i.e. think of a more athletic version of Anderson Varejao]. Troy Murphy [PF] playing beside either Andrew Bynum or Gasol is going to be a very potent player [i.e. think of the double-double machine who was a former starter for the Pacers]. Once the Lakers decide to use their TPE … and it doesn’t need to be in regards to acquiring a stud like Dwight Howard [C] … their roster is still going to be formidable for the Western Conference Playoffs, as long as they are healthy. Although they won’t play the type of artistically pleasing basketball they did under the direction of Dr. Phil, they will still be a highly effective team, under the capable direction of a defensive-minded head coach like Mike Brown. Those expecting a rapid Lakers’ demise this season will most likely be quite disappointed by season’s end.

Spain vs Lithuania, August 18, 2011

Friday, August 19th, 2011

For the benefit of Raptors fans …

who can’t seem to get enough of Jonas Valanciunas [i.e. Selection No. 5, 2011 NBA Draft].

BTW … The quality of these 2 youtube videos is absolutely terrific!

All Hail ‘The Spaniard’

Friday, June 18th, 2010

If, before, there was but one …

today, there are now two such men … of tremendous, character, accomplishment and reknown.

A salute to the Poet Gladiator, from Barcelona …

 

for playing as ‘hard’ as he did in this series, with both his head and his heart, and without whom these LA Lakers would not have won back-to-back NBA Championships. 

Arnovitz breaks down the Lakers’ Game 6 defense

Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

The Lakers’ defense gets it done

The Lakers pressured the Celtics all night, making life particularly miserable for Paul Pierce. The defense was all the more stifling because Kobe Bryant continued to play rover, sloughing off Rajon Rondo in the half court to plug holes and double-team the ball. Bryant’s strategy was nothing new, but the Lakers’ quickness to the ball, readiness on ball screens and relentlessness on those traps were unprecedented. Literally. The Lakers’ defensive rating of 75.3 on Tuesday night was their best mark of the season — and far and away the Celtics’ worst offensive output since opening night.

A real key was Phil Jackson’s decision to have the Lakers “trap” more aggressively vs Boston’s “Pick and Pop” offensive action, in conjunction with allowing Kobe Bryant to rotate out, at least initially, to the temporarily “open” shooter … whoever he might be … while consistently “helping off” of Rajon Rondo.

When this version of the LA Lakers plays with this sort of well-coordinated Offense, Defense and Rebounding they are simply the best team in the NBA.

What you should expect from this year’s NBA Finals

Thursday, June 3rd, 2010

The NBA Finals [v.2009-2010] tip off this evening in Los Angeles.

                       

LEGITIMATE CONTENDERS IN THE NBA PLAYOFFS

[as of Thursday April 15, 2010]

 

TEAM

W

L

W%

EAST

WEST

PDR

PAR

RDR

QR

QIR

Celtics

50

32

.610

4

 

9

5

25

39

12

Lakers

57

25

.695

 

1

6

9

7

22

6

LEGEND: W – Wins; L – Losses; Win% – Winning Percentage; PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR – Quality Rating [i.e. PDR + PAR + RDR = QR]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [i.e. QR/#1-16].

While Rounds 1, 2 and 3 have produced some fair-to-good basketball, this version of the Finals should prove to be an entirely different kettle of fish.

 

NBA PLAYOFFS
4th Round [FINALS] MATCH-UP

 

Celtics

50

32

.610

4

 

9

5

25

39

12

Lakers

57

25

.695

 

1

6

9

7

22

6

STARTERS

Rajon Rondo

Ray Allen

Paul Pierce

Kevin Garnett

Kendrick Perkins

ß

à

=

=

=

Derek Fisher

Kobe Bryant

Ron Artest

Pau Gasol

Andrew Bynum

+1

Sub-Total

+1

KEY SUBS

Tony Allen

Glen Davis

Rasheed Wallace

=

=

à

Shannon Brown

Josh Powell

Lamar Odom

0

Sub-Total

+1

OTHERS

Nate Robinson

Michael Finley

Marquis Daniels

Shelden Williams

=

=

=

=

Jordan Farmar

Sasha Vujacic

Luke Walton

DJ Mbenga

COACHING

Doc Rivers

à

Phil Jackson

0

Sub-Total

0

+1

TOTAL

+2

Analysis: If Kevin Garnett was 100% healthy and fully recovered from his knee injury of last season, then, the Celtics might actually be the correct pick in this match-up. Although he seems to be regaining some of his former vertical explosiveness and a good deal of his horizontal speed, his lateral quickness and agility are still not back to what they were 2 seasons ago, when he was one of the best defensive players in the history of the NBA.

 

Conversely, when the Lakers are relatively healthy – which they haven’t been for much of this season – they are simply the best team in the NBA this year. Although the Celtics’ Starting 5 is formidable, the Lakers should be able to withstand the initial on-slaught … if they use their bench players properly … and, then, gradually wear Boston down over the course of a physically grueling series.

 

Shortening Boston’s rotation should not produce an advantage for the Celtics against this opponent.

 

Pick: LOS ANGELES has the home court advantage this time and should win in 6 [or, perhaps, 7] games.

 

[Caveat: If Phil Jackson should happen to get out-coached – e.g. refusing to use Josh Powell vs Glen Davis – by Doc Rivers, then, the Celtics could well capitalize and win this series.] 

These 2 teams are quite evenly matched.

The Lakers, however, signed Ron Artest last summer for one reason only.

i.e. To have him defend either LeBron James or Paul Pierce in the NBA Finals. 

If Ron Ron does his job properly, from a physical standpoint, and can play Da Truth to a virtual stand-off, then … all else being equal … the Lakers will be hoisting another championship banner to the rafters when the 2010-2011 kicks off in the fall.

It really is as simple as that.

Enjoy what should be a real hum-dinger of a series!

The best team in the NBA today …

Friday, April 2nd, 2010

… it says here, is still this one:

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

PG

OG

SF

PF

C

STARTERS

Kobe

Bryant

6-6, 205

Sasha

Vujacic

6-7, 205

Ron

Artest

6-7, 260

Pau

Gasol

7-0, 250

Andrew

Bynum

7-0, 285

KEY SUBS

Jordan

Farmar

6-2, 180

Luke

Walton

6-8, 235

Lamar

Odom

6-10, 230

RESERVES

Shannon

Brown

6-4, 210

Derek

Fisher

6-1, 210

 

Josh

Powell

6-9, 240

DJ

Mbenga

7-0, 255

EXTRAS/OUTS

 

 

Jordan

Morrison

6-8, 205

 

 

HEAD COACH

Phil Jackson

Unfortunately …

==========

What’s ailing the Lakers and Celtics? Offense

You might think me full of mess, but the results don’t lie. There is no reason this team should be the 10th-best offensive team in the NBA (down from third in 2008-09), and the reason behind that downturn lies in the way this team has gone away from the triangle offense. It mostly has to do with what I started warning the Lakers and Kobe about back in Behind the Box Scores from early December: Kobe, you’re taking too much on.

It’s not about too many shots (though he takes too many shots). It’s about developing a five-man rhythm rather than looking to play fourth-quarter hero through the first three quarters. Hell, the main reason Kobe has had to play fourth-quarter hero so many times this year (and it bears repeating – nobody has played fourth-quarter hero this well since Jordan’s prime) is because of the pound-foolish ways they’ve played. Kobe dominates the ball too much. Simple as that. It’s the reason they’re not pulling away from teams in the second and third quarters.

The amount of shots he takes? That’s not the problem. He could get 30 shots a game while touching the ball for three seconds in every possession. It’s not about shots. It’s about ball movement and keeping the defense on its heels. And the Lakers haven’t kept anyone on their heels this year. All they’ve had is a Kobe-centric offense that teams know is coming, but are sometimes powerless to stop.

Some of the time.

The other times? It leaves them needlessly 10th in offense and with 21 losses already. With too many close wins and a post All-Star break swoon that has seen their play on both ends of the court rank among some of the more mediocre teams in this league.

This team had 70-win potential and has done just enough to win on most nights. But on 21 nights, that hasn’t been enough. Should the Lakers still be the favorites heading into the postseason? I think so. The team’s play, at its best, is still probably better than that of the Cavaliers or Magic at their best.

But that doesn’t mean the Lakers don’t need a major attitude adjustment.

And with the defense falling off the way it has (second in the NBA a few weeks ago, below average in the weeks since), they better get the offense together quickly. Very quickly.

And it starts with the smartest guy in the room. Kobe Bryant.

==========

as long as Phil Jackson continues to:

1. Believe that Derek Fisher’s veteran leadership justifies his inclusion in the Lakers’ Group-Of-5-Best-Players

i.e. selected from amongst this specific set of 6 players:

Fisher/PG + Bryant/OG + Artest/SF + Odom/PF + Gasol/PF-C + Bynum/C 

… despite the fact that he can no longer defend [primarily] or rebound [secondarily] adequately at the Point Guard position, and has been reduced to being little more than an erratic spot-up shooter, at the Off Guard position, for the bulk of the season;

2. Use Kobe Bryant, as the Lakers’ de facto Point Guard … operating beside Derek Fisher, in their Group-Of-5-Best-Players … in a way which requires that he starts their half-court offense with the ball in his hands, far too many times, coming off the dribble up, and then holds it for copious amounts of time, per possession, while his teammates are establishing their positions:

A. In the Triangle Offense, or
B. Within the alignment for a specific quick-hitting set play, or
C. While he isolates at-length against his own individual defender;

all of which STAGNATES their otherwise exceptional offensive flow; 

3. Leave Sasha Vujacic in the proverbial dog-house, as their best perimeter shooting guard, who has seen his overall PT dramatically reduced since the 2007-2008 campaign …

when he:

i. Took 482 3PT shots;
ii. Made 219 3PT shots;
iii. At a rate of 43.7%;

and functioned effectively as one of most dynamic “catch & shoot/hustle play” artists, with good size and decent quickness, at the Off Guard position, in the entire NBA; 

and, 

4. Stifle the development of Jordan Farmer and Shannon Brown [i.e. the 2 best back-ups on the Lakers' roster, at the PG position], who are solid defenders and rebounders, in arrears of Kobe Bryant;

Los Angeles will remain vulnerable to a 1st, or 2nd, or 3rd, Round upset in the playoffs, and may no longer be an absolutely sure thing to win their 2nd consecutive NBA title.

On the other hand …

If the Lakers are able to get, both, Andrew Bynum/C and Luke Walton/SF back in their line-up prior to the end of the regular season schedule and, then, have The ZenMaster come to his senses … sooner rather than later … about items #1-4 [listed above], there is still a high probability that the Larry O’Brien Trophy will, once again, be spending this summer in the hands of Dr. Jerry Buss.

———-

With only 3 weeks left before the start of the NBA playoffs …

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1/Cleveland vs 8/Toronto
4/Boston vs 5/Milwaukee
==================
2/Orlando vs 7/Charlotte
3/Atlanta vs 6/Miami

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1/LA Lakers vs 8/Portland
4/Phoenix vs 5/Denver
=================
2/Utah vs 7/San Antonio
3/Dallas vs 6/Oklahoma City

it is shaping up to be a wild and wooly post-season, with a number of solid teams in the hunt for the championship, if the Lakers should happen to falter.

———————————–

Related:

BREAKING NEWS: Kobe [FINALLY] Agrees to a Contract Extension

How the Raptors lost to Kobe & Co.

Friday, March 12th, 2010

Sebastian Pruiti does a good job breaking down specific NBA action with his blog, NBAPlaybook.com.

Although it’s taken a while to get to this specific piece of analysis …

Here’s the contribution from yours truly, regarding how the Raptors lost their game earlier this week against the LA Lakers, on yet another clutch jump shot by Black Mamba:

How the Lakers free up Kobe 

[comment #18, in this thread]

Let’s back this analysis up even further and ask the following 2 questions, pertaining to the way in which the Raptors chose to deploy their individual defenders against this well-known Lakers SLOB action:

1. re: Individual match-ups

Turkoglu [should have been Antoine Wright instead] vs Artest …
Bosh [should have been Amir Johnson, instead] vs Odom
Bargnani [should have been Chris Bosh, instead] vs Gasol
Jack vs Fisher
Wright [should have been Sonny Weems, instead] vs Bryant

2. re: How Turkoglu, Wright & Bargnani were initially used during this sequence

If Turkoglu was not going to be asked to pressure the inbounds passer while out of out of bounds then he should have been sitting on top of Bryant in the Right Low Post position, in full denial mode [i.e. facing Artest with his rear end pressing into Bryant's stomach.

With Turkoglu in this position, then, Wright should have been fully behind Bryant, in a sandwich position, preventing any lob pass going toward the basket.

With Turkoglu and Wright in these two positions, Bargnani should have been in a full better left-side half-front position, in order to deny the initial inbounds pass from Artest to Gasol. i.e. If Gasol would have tried to back-cut vs Bargnani for a lob/layup attempt from a quick pass directly into the key/moving towards the hoop, Wright ... who has decent quickness, athleticism and size ... would have been in a good position to disrupt this pass, while in a sandwich defensive position vs Bryant in the Right Low Post]

[* Please Note: If Chris Bosh would have been used to check Gasol, with Weems used to check Bryant, and Wright used to check Artest ... this would have put the Raptors in an even stronger defensive position to prevent the Lakers from being able to get the ball to Bryant using this specific set play, as Bosh is a superior athlete compared to Bargnani, Weems is a superior athlete compared to Wright, and Wright is a superior athlete compared to Turkoglu.]

With 9 secs left in regulation time and the score knotted at 107, the Raptors had the wrong combination of players on the court, in the first place!

What’s wrong with the Lakers?

Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010

According to Kelly Dwyer

——————————————–

Kobe Bryant also scored 44 points on 28 shots, a potent night for anyone, much less someone working with nine fingers and all sorts of other ailments.

But he’s shooting too much. You can’t point to that particular night’s shooting percentage and call this a smart deal, not when the Lakers are only managing 101 points per 100 possessions against a rather putrid Memphis defense. Not when the Lakers are currently ninth in offensive efficiency, when they should be first (even with Derek Fisher(notes) around, even with Pau Gasol(notes) missing games) by a long shot.

The ball has to move, others need to be made dangerous, and other options have to be explored. 44 points on 28 shots is great, but you can’t have Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum(notes) combine to take just 10 shots in 56 minutes. Or, 18 fewer than Bryant in 16 more minutes. That’s ridiculous.

And Kobe knows better. In just about every given basketball instance, he knows better. All the greats have known better, and ignored those better instincts to do things his way. Bird did it. Jordan did it. Jerry West did it. But that doesn’t make it right. And you can’t make it a habit. It has to be an occasional dalliance with the very, very wrong.

Not a consistent theme, and that’s what Kobe’s been on about for the last two months or so. We appreciate the grit, the all-world season at an advanced age and on the best team in basketball. We love all these knockout game-winners he’s been throwing in. We know that even if Kobe keeps it up, it might not matter. The Lakers are too good.

Things are starting to turn, though, and it’s up to Kobe to stop it. If you’re a daily reader, you know I’ve been warning about this for a while. He has to let up, he has to involve his teammates, and he has to run the offense. This team is too brilliant for things to be this Kobe-centric; because he’s not waving off Chris Mihm(notes) anymore.

——————————————–

According to yours truly …

1. If the reports about Ron Artest still struggling to pick up the nuances of the Triangle Offense are, in fact, true, then, there’s a strong, strong likelihood that Kobe Bryant simply doesn’t yet trust his new teammate to execute the proper reads involved with the Triangle, on a possession-by-possession basis, and is therefore jacking-up a pile shots indiscriminently as the better choice of two evils, at least, in his own mind.

2. Phil Jackson’s decision to play Derek Fisher this many minutes, thus far, this season, is costing the Lakers an untold number of points per game, at both ends of the floor … in comparison with the specific skill-sets of Shannon Brown [who is a far superior athlete and a much better defender/rebounder] and Jordan Farmar [who now has a more complete offensive repertoire], at the PG position, neither of whom Phil Jackson happens to trust, just yet, as a key decision-maker coming down the stretch of important games.

3. The best rotations possible for the Lakers look something like this:

OPTION 1

STARTERS
Jordan Farmar, Kobe Bryant, Ron Artest, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum

KEY SUBS
Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton and Lamar Odom

EXTRAS
Derek Fisher, Adam Morrison, Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga

OPTION 2

STARTERS
Jordan Farmar, Kobe Bryant, Luke Walton, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum

KEY SUBS
Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic, Ron Artest and Lamar Odom

EXTRAS
Derek Fisher, Adam Morrison, Josh Powell and DJ Mbenga

and involve:

A. Derek Fisher not getting very much burn, at all;

and/or,

B. Ron Artest [i.e. a powder keg player] being used as a “Key Sub”, rather than as a “Starter”;

neither of which are moves that Phil Jackson seems prepared to make at this point this season.

4. Lingering injuries to Pau Gasol, Luke Walton and Ron Artest have robbed the Lakers of the much-needed opportunity to coalesce, as a well-formed unit, with clearly-defined roles that complement one another.

5. Kobe Bryant is shooting way too much … primarily BECAUSE of #1, #2, #3 and #4.

Until Phil Jackson is better able to:

- Recognize that Derek Fisher’s time is now up, as an on-floor leader/key decision-maker with this team … in spite of his ability to knock down open perimeter shots on occasion

- Make better use of Luke Walton [i.e. a solid glue guy] and Sasha Vujacic [i.e. a solid perimter shooter with good size], as important role players, whether as [i] Starters or [ii] Key Subs

and,

- Help Ron Artest, and his teammates, to play more effectively within the confines of the Triangle Offense

 … the Lakers are going to remain in a vulnerable position this year.

———————————

This LA Lakers team still has more than enough “top flight NBA talent” to win the championship this season … if Phil Jackson is actually prepared to do what’s necessary to bring this about, given his level of loyalty to D-Fish, and his still-developing relationship with Ron Artest, Shannon Brown & Co.

What the Lakers have right now, however, is a significant TRUST issue, and it’s up to Dr. Phil to fix it, over the course of the next 4 months.

More Joy in … Raptorville?

Friday, January 15th, 2010

The NBA’s trade deadline is now just a little more than 1 month away.

On-line talk is beginning to purcolate concerning the eventual long term destinations for the marquee players of the Free Agent Class of 2010, e.g. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Carlos Boozer, Tracy McGrady, etc.

The Bosh Trade Buzz 

Raptors approach fork in the road 

One of the best NBA-related blogs is The Wages of Wins Journal, authored by David Berri. This is his perspective on Chris Bosh’s situation with the Toronto Raptors: 

———————————

Mixed messages on Chris Bosh

Examining the numbers for the individual players reveals that the change we observe with respect to Bosh’s production explains virtually all of the team’s improvement.  In other words, if Bosh maintained what he was doing last year, the Raptors – after all the changes made this summer — should have expected to win about 13 of their first 39 games.  And that mark would rank Toronto among the Pacers, Wizards, Pistons, and Sixers.  So if Bosh doesn’t improve, the Raptors are looking at the NBA lottery.

With Bosh improving, though, the Raptors have a good chance of making the playoffs.  And if that happens, Bosh has a good chance of experiencing a first round exit for the third time in his career.

Yes, Bosh had yet to experience much team success with the Raptors. Hence one suspects he might depart Toronto this summer.  And consequently, the Raptors have an incentive to trade him now.

A Super Dynasty with Bosh?

One possible destination is the LA Lakers.  It has been suggested that the Lakers send Andrew Bynum to the Raptors for Bosh (other players would have to be added to make the trade work, but Bynum and Bosh are the key players in the trade).  Such a proposal has apparently caused Andrew from Waiting for Next Year – a blog about Cleveland sports – a great deal of consternation.   Andrew explores how the Bynum-Bosh trade could happen and then concludes: “This deal would seemingly turn the Lakers into a super dynasty and give the Cavaliers little chance of being able to overcome the Lakers’ supremacy.”

I read this sentence before I looked at what Bosh had done this season. Since I knew that Bosh and Bynum produced at similar levels prior to this season, when I first read Andrew’s take on this proposal I had a hard time believing that such a trade would shift the balance of power in the NBA significantly.

But seeing what Bosh is doing this year, I guess there’s some reason for the other contenders in the NBA to be a bit nervous about a Bynum for Bosh trade.  For example, if Bynum was playing at Bosh’s level this year, the Lakers would be on pace to win about 64 games, or about six more projected wins than we currently see (and if Gasol was healthy, this projection is even higher).  And a Lakers team on pace to win 64 games would currently be the best team in the NBA. 

There are two issues, though, to consider. First of all, Bosh has never produced at this level in the past.  And if Bosh reverts to what we saw before this year – as I just noted — than the Lakers would not really be getting much more than what they are getting from Bynum. 

Furthermore, even if Bosh does maintain what he is doing this year, a 64 win team is hardly an insurmountable dynasty. The Cavaliers are currently on pace to win 59 games this year, and the difference between 64 and 59 wins isn’t really that great.  Yes, the Cavs would have to do a bit more to close to the gap.  But the gap could be closed (and even if it isn’t closed, it’s more than possible for a slightly worse team to win an NBA playoff series).

So although I think a Bynum-Bosh trade could make the Lakers the favorite to win in 2010, I don’t think the Lakers would be over-whelming favorites or a super dynasty.

Let me close with more thought on the Lakers.  If it’s true the Lakers are considering this move, it does tell us something about how the Lakers currently evaluate their own team.  There are pundits who believe the Lakers are already “the dominant team” in the NBA.  The fact that the Lakers are pursuing Bosh (that is, if they are) suggests the Lakers may not believe they are currently dominating the NBA (or maybe — since this is about mixed messages — this doesn’t mean that).

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… and, this, right here:

IMO, 25 is still a touch below the peak performance years of an elite level NBA player.

In all likelihood, Chris Bosh will continue to mature and, in the process, improve “his game” physically, mentally, emotionally and skill-wise. When he reaches 27-28 he will be at his zenith and, if teammed with the right cast of characters [i.e. owner, GM, coaches and players], be in position … relative to his peers … to seriously challenge for a NBA title, as a Core Player on a squad with Quality Depth throughout its line-up.

There’s a fine piece of Canadian Literature, by Morley Callaghan, titled, “More Joy In Heaven.”

It deals with The Cycle of Life and those who fail to recognize the following truisms:

i. The young and naive depend on others to survive.
ii. As maturity sets in, the young and naive begin to learn what life gives up and, therefore, by necessity, begin to develop their own sense of intelligence. When this happens, they actually become “smarter” than they were before.
iii. For some, when they think that they’ve reached the stage of full maturity, they’ve actuallyt become so smart that they realize what the world is really all about is dealing with harshness and the need for self-preservation/self-interest, at all costs. Hypocrisy abounds and what something looks like on the surface is rarely, if ever, what it actually is … when examined in-depth, “up close & personal”, in an objective way. Once they reach THIS stage, they elect to go no further.
iv. For others, however, there is a different path which still lies ahead, beyond the concrete [and, therefore, limited] reality of the three-dimensional world. At this stage, they are fully aware of the hypocrisy and moral bankruptcy which exists in everyday life, the need for “smartness” in decision-making, and the perceived need for an actual lack of naivete, if the goal is to Survive & Conquer. What these individuals choose to do next is very curious and involves a form of “wilful regression”, so-to-speak … which harkens back to their early days of life when they had no choice but to “trust in the inherent goodness of others”, as without that, in the first place,

[i] What does one really have? and,
[ii] How valuable is IT really?

in the grand scheme of things.

The key difference this time around, though, is that these “smarter-and-yet-still-naive” psychologically mature individuals know full well what life really gives up and that there is little true value to be gained by growing rich, in any sense, on the back of moral bankruptcy, while losing one’s soul, in the process.

It’s a wonderful short story which speaks to the nature of human intelligence, ruthless objectivity, and what actually is … in the world in which we live.

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IMO, the Lakers’ ownership is committed to Andrew Bynum and has no intention of trading him this season.

If they do acquire Chris Bosh, however, and insert him in a Five-Man Unit that looks like this:

Kobe/PG + Artest/OG + Odom/SF + Gasol/PF + Bosh/C

[supported by the likes of Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton and Josh Powell]

it would instantly become the very best one in the entire NBA.

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is just some of what yours truly thinks about the matter.

Enjoy, one and all!

Related:

Chris Bosh’s strength … as a player and a person

De-constructing the mystery that is Chris Bosh

Yao Ming or Andrew Bynum: Part III [The Playoff Series]