khandor’s sports blog

When you read the following article:

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Magic match Bulls’ offer sheet to retain Redick

The decision drives the Magic deeper into the luxury tax and gives them one of the NBA’s highest payrolls at about $93 million next season. The move keeps Orlando’s roster mostly intact as the Magic hope continuity will overcome Miami’s All-Star trio and Boston’s Big Three in the Eastern Conference.

“When it came down to it, when we’re talking about what we’re trying to do here, it came down for me to pedigree, DNA, things that most people don’t think about,” Orlando general manager Otis Smith said. “It was less about the money for me, being the basketball guy, and more about keeping a guy around that we’ve had in our organization for the past four years.”

The decision was ultimately made by ownership.

Because Redick was a restricted free agent, Orlando had seven days to match the contract. Billionaire owner Rich DeVos and team president Bob Vander Weide took all seven days to make the move that nearly doubles Redick’s salary from last season.

Teams have to pay a dollar for every dollar they are over the luxury tax, which the league set at $70.3 million for next season. The tax hit is based on the roster at the end of the season, meaning it’s likely the Magic could make trades before then to lessen the financial burden.

Orlando should find relief in a new downtown arena that opens this year and creates new revenue streams. Smith also believes a roster that remains one of the deepest in the league is attractive for potential moves and doesn’t mortgage the Magic’s future.

“The fact that we have players that other teams want makes you pretty flexible,” Smith said. “Is it possible to give out contracts and move a little bit less money? Sure. My thing is you don’t want to take a step back with talent.”

At the very least, keeping Redick assures that.

The former Duke standout was the 11th overall pick in the 2006 draft. He struggled early in his NBA career but has become a significant contributor for the Magic.

So much so that Smith decided that Redick and recently signed small forward Quentin Richardson(notes) had more value than Matt Barnes(notes), who became a free agent after one season with Orlando. Smith said he never offered Barnes a deal and all but ruled out the small forward returning next season.

“It really came down to out of those three, which of the two do we bring in?” Smith said. “We like what Matt brought to the table, but sometimes you have to make decisions that’s best for your club long-term.”

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and, are then made aware of the following information:

EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS

2003-2004, 2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009 and 2009-2010

TRANSACTIONS

Orlando vs Toronto

Isolating the performances of the Raptors and the Magic:

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what you should be able to see is that both of these respective franchises have, in FACT, had a legitimate opportunity to build a first-class operation … starting from a lower tier position in the league 7 seasons ago; and, which has included the hiring of a new GM, along the way … focused on being able to compete for a NBA championship in the not-to-distant future.

To this point, however, only one has made significant head-way … and, a key question going forward for the other, then, becomes:

How many of the players expected to be on their roster next season actually fit into the “Just Winners” category, based upon their experience in the game, thus far?

Unfortunately for the Raptors, the correct answer, according to these eyes, is … quite possibly … as few as 3. 

3 weeks ago …

You were told in this space that the proper way for the Los Angeles Lakers to solve their problems this season would be to use Kobe Bean Bryant in a specific role:

Solving the Lakers’ problems with the Spurs, Apr 6 2010

Last week …

You were told in this space that the outcome of a playoff series can sometimes be determined by the ability of a team to make the correct game-to-game … and, THEN, in-game … adjustments, based on what its opponent’s specific strengths and weaknesses are and the best possible use of its own personnel:

Making the correct game-to-game adjustments can be THE difference between Winning and Losing in the Playoffs, Apr 23 2010

So much of what can be found on-line today concerning supposedly sound “basketball analysis” is little more than gobbledygook put forth by statistical gurus without a proper understanding of, 

“How the NBA game actually works.”

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Oklahoma City Thunder 87
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 111
Complete Series Info

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The fact is …

1. Sample sizes are rendered virtually meaningless;

2. League-wide averages are rendered virtually meaningless; and,

3. Creating and minimizing individual mis-matches against the best teams in the league - and a particular opponent of high calibre - are absolutely crucial;

 … when it comes to determining accurately which teams, coaches and, therefore, players will advance in the playoffs, or not.

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During the pre-season …

You were told in this space that the 2009-2010 NBA championship would, in all likelihood, be won by 1 of the following 5 teams:

EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando Magic
Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston Celtics [i.e. depending upon the recovery of Kevin Garnett from injury]

WESTERN CONFERENCE
Los Angeles Lakers
San Antonio Spurs

Nothing which has happened since that time has fundamentally changed that perception. 

Right now …

The 4 best teams in the Eastern Conference are the Cleveland Cavaliers [4-1], Orlando Magic [4-0], Boston Celtics [4-1] and Atlanta Hawks [2-2].

The 4 best teams in the Western Conference are the Los Angeles Lakers [3-2], San Antonio Spurs [3-2], Utah Jazz [3-1] and Phoenix Suns [3-2].

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Barring any further major injuries …

This year’s NBA champions will, in all likelihood, be 1 of the following 3 teams:

Los Angeles Lakers, Phil Jackson [and Mitch Kupchak and Dr. Jerry Buss]
Orlando Magic, Stan Van Gundy [and Otis Smith and Richard DeVos]
San Antonio Spurs, Gregg Popovich [and RC Buford and Peter Holt]

… none of which happens to be the Cleveland Cavaliers with Mike Brown [and Danny Ferry and Daniel Gilbert].

Basketball is the ultimate TEAM Sport … with each player on the court having to be able to function adequately on Offense, on Defense, and in terms of Rebounding, in conjunction with the sound strategic and tactical decision-making skills of an elite level head coach, general manager and owner.

Those who think that basketball can be properly understood by examining the statistical norms, averages, outliers, etc., associated with representative “sample sizes”, “numerical formulas”, and all manner of “efficiency ratings,” are simply wasting their [and your] time.

Basketball is a game of:

I. Acumen;

and,

II. Inches;

… the most important of which are the “approximately 6″ located between the ears of a team’s owner, general manager, head coach and 8-9 regular rotation players.

Related:

Kobe Bryant, Closer to the ground

Every Move Must Have A Purpose

… that the 30 gentlemen who, at present, hold the General Manager’s positions, in the NBA, for the 30 best basketball teams in the world are, in fact, the 30 men with ”the best” grasp of what it actually takes to succeed in this league, as a player, then, this specific video clip is posted here expressly for your benefit.

DeJuan Blair [PF, 6-7, 265] was selected in the 37th [overall] position of the 2009 NBA Draft [i.e. No. 7, in the 2nd Round], by R.C. Buford, GM of the San Antonio Spurs … with the 1st of the team’s 2 available picks … which means that all 29 other general managers in the league each had the chance to take him - as an under-sized PF without anterior cruciate ligaments in either knee - and, instead, simply chose to pass him by.

When the Spurs are once again playing in the NBA’s post-season tounament this spring, fans of other teams across the league who repeat, ad naseum, the phrase,

“In ______________ [substitute whatever GM's name you may want that's not R.C. Buford], we trust,”

would do well to keep this simple fact in-mind.

The best GM in the NBA currently resides in San Antonio, Texas … and, it’s by a wide margin.

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This evening’s game between Toronto [11-16/.407, 2nd Atlantic] and Orlando [18-6/.750, 1st Southeast] marks the first occasion for the “Turkish Michael Jordan” to make a return visit to his old haunt in the Magic Kingdom.

As the former “go-to, clutch time” performer for last season’s squad in Orlando, which played its way to the NBA Finals …

What did it really say about Hedo Turkoglu [at 30 years of age] that he was actually willing to forego the opportunity to win a NBA championship with the Magic this season, in order to sign a $50.0 M contract to play the next 5 seasons for the Toronto Raptors?

Perhaps, that he really does care more about being content and comfortable in his own personal life than he cares about doing what’s necessary to win a NBA championship.

Doing what’s necessary to win a NBA championship?

For example:

* Getting back in defensive transition to prevent easy opposition baskets.

* Defending one’s individual check with consistent tenacity.

* Defending, in a half-court team context, with thorough responsibility.

* Rebounding with an absolute commitment to recover the ball.

* Discriminating readily between an open and a contested shot attempt.

* Physically standing up for a fallen/vulnerable teammate, when need be.

* A willingness to play within an assigned role for the good of the team.

* A willingness to sacrifice oneself [i.e. the physical body, as well as, personal wants and desires] for the benefit of the team.

In their 16 losses this year, Bryan Colangelo’s Raptors have succumbed by margins of:

Considering that the acquisition of Hedo Turkoglu/SF:

Career Stats, Hedo Turkoglu

was one of the two major personnel moves made by the Raptors this past summer …

along with the $50.0 M, 5-yr extension of the ‘rookie contract’ for former No. 1 [overall] Draft Pick, Andrea Bargnani/C:

Career Stats, Andrea Bargnani

it should be of little wonder to the Raptors faithful that Toronto is mired in the lower half of the Eastern Conference, in a quest for the last playoff position.

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Shame on those who actually thought that Otis Smith [GM, Orlando Magic] may not have known exactly what he was talking about …

Orlando Magic GM dissing Hedo Turkoglu?

in his alleged conversations with Kevin Pritchard [GM, Portland Trail Blazers], in the aftermath of Mr. Turkoglu’s decision to sign on with the Raptors, and that Hedo Turkoglu’s priorities might actually include winning a NBA title. 

Caveat Emptor!

Which team[s] made out the best from the 4-team trade … between Toronto, Dallas, Memphis and Orlando … this past summer?

Rick Kamla gets it right.

Orlando Magic 125
TORONTO RAPTORS 116
[Sun Nov 01 2009]

Box Score Info

Crucial Sequence, Play-By-Play

Crucial Sequence, Substitution Chart

Gruesome Details

1. Orlando played without Vince Carter [Starting Off Guard], Mickael Pietrus [Starting Small Forward] and Rashard Lewis [Starting Power Forward].

2. Between the end of the 1st Quarter [36-28] and the 7:03 mark of the 2nd Quarter, Orlando opened up a 22 point lead [54-32].

3. The Raptors players who were on the floor for this specific segment of the game were:

PG - Jarrett Jack [3:57, -14]
OG - Marco Belinelli [3:44, -9]; Antoine Wright [1:13, -5]
SF - Antoine Wright [3:44, -9]; Hedo Turkoglu [1:13, -5]
PF - Chris Bosh [3:14, -7]; Amir Johnson [1:43, -7]
C - Rasho Nesterovic [3:14, -7]; Andrea Bargnani [1:43, -7]

4. There are good reasons why Indiana, Golden State, Dallas, Milwaukee and Orlando each chose not to retain the services of Misters Jack, Belinelli, Wright, Johnson and Turkoglu, respectively, this past summer AND the Raptors need to seriously consider limiting the floor time given to Andrea Bargnani this season.

Instead of placing blame for this loss on a player like Jose Calderon [PG] … whose specific strengths and weaknesses were well-known two seasons ago when he first won the Starting PG job over incumbent TJ Ford … accusing fingers in Raptorville should be pointing in an entirely different direction, i.e. at the architect[s] of the team.

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PS. Raptors fans were told in the summer which specific teams SHOULD have been viewed, both, at the time and down-the-road, as the BIGGEST winners in the four-team [blockbuster?] trade between Toronto [1-2], Memphis [1-2], Dallas [2-1] and Orlando [3-0]. Shame on you, if you were one of those who chose NOT to listen back then.

PPS. Yes, the 2009-2010 regular season is only 3 games old for the Raptors, but … when you look closely at the first 20 games on their schedule … it doesn’t get any easier for Toronto until the 2nd week of December.

Related:

When three birds of a different feather flock together it’s a poor omen for the Raptors

Yet another reason to like the job which Otis Smith [GM] has done, thus far?

NBA Countdown: No. 8 Orlando Magic
Reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 14 years and second in franchise history was a wonderful accomplishment for the Orlando Magic-but there was no guarantee a championship would follow.The Magic will go into the 2009-10 season determined to defend their Eastern Conference title but looking different than when they won it. Yes, they still have All-Star center Dwight Howard as their foundation and high-priced Rashard Lewis (who’s suspended the first 10 games of the season after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level) shooting 3-pointers, but the Magic changed their late-game, go-to guy by switching from Turkoglu to Carter.

It’s why general manager Otis Smith didn’t take any bows, or even take the time to catch his breath.

And it’s also why he made one of the boldest moves of the summer, changing his carefully crafted team chemistry by trading for All-Star Vince Carter and letting go of free agent Hedo Turkoglu, a key player in Orlando’s recent rise.

“You can’t stand still in this league,” Smith said. “If you do, you’ll be going backward.”

The Magic also added free agents in power forward Brandon Bass from Dallas and small forward Matt Barnes of Phoenix. They even added point guard Jason Williams, who last played during 2007-08 with the Heat. Surprisingly, they kept backup center Marcin Gortat by matching the offer sheet Dallas gave him.

With the Celtics adding Rasheed Wallace and the Cavaliers trading for Shaquille O’Neal, the Magic tried to keep pace with the other serious contenders in the East.

“There are less than seven teams every year that really are trying to win a championship in our league,” Smith said. “Those three (in the East) are trying to win now, as opposed to saying ‘We’re OK where we are. Let’s stay the status quo.’”

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Otis Smith was hired by the Magic on May 6, 2006.

This is what the team’s roster looked like on that day:

Augmon, Stacey F
Battie, Tony PF-C
Cato, Kelvin C
Diener, Travis PG
Dooling, Keyon G
Francis, Steve G
Garrity, Pat PF
Hill, Grant G-F
Howard, Dwight C
Kasun, Mario C
Morris, Terence PF
Nelson, Jameer PG
Outlaw, Bo PF
Stevenson, DeShawn G
Turkoglu, Hedo F

This is what it looks like today, 41 months later:

Almond, Morris G
Anderson, Ryan PF
Barnes, Matt F
Bass, Brandon PF
Carter, Vince G-F
Foyle, Adonal C
Gortat, Marcin C
Howard, Dwight C
Johnson, Anthony PG
Johnson, Linton F
Lewis, Rashard F
Nelson, Jameer PG
Pietrus, Mickael G-F
Redick, JJ G
Williams, Jason PG

This is Orlando’s record of performance, since that date:

2008-2009
59-23/.720, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, NBA Finalist 
2007-2008
52-30/.634, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 2nd Rd
2006-2007
40-42/.488, 3rd Atlantic, 8th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

This was their record of performance the season before Smith arrived:

2005-2006
36-46/.439, 3rd Atlantic, 10th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

3 full seasons into his tenure with the Magic, Otis Smith should be considered as one of the best GM’s in the NBA.

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By way of comparison, for the benefit of Raptors fans, this is what Toronto has accomplished under the direction of Bryan Colangelo [2-time NBA EOTY award recipient] during this same time-frame:

2005-2006 Roster [Feb 28 2006]
Araujo, Rafael PF
Bonner, Matt PF
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
Davis, Antonio PF-C
Graham, Joey F
James, Mike PG
Martin, Darrick PG
Peterson, Morris G-F
Sow, Pape PF
Villanueva, Charlie F
Williams, Eric G-F
Woods, Loren C

2009-2010, Current Roster
Banks, Marcus G
Bargnani, Andrea C
Belinelli, Marco G-F
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
DeRozan, Demar G-F
Douby, Quincy G
Evans, Reggie PF
Jack, Jarrett G
Johnson, Amir PF
Nesterovic, Rasho PF-C
O’Bryant, Patrick C
Turkoglu, Hedo F
Weems, Sonny G-F
Wright, Antoine G-F

Year #1-3
2008-2009
33-49/.402, 4th Atlantic, 13th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs
2007-2008
41-41/.500, 2nd Atlantic, 6th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd
2006-2007
47-35/.573, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

Year Prior
2005-2006
27-55/.329, 4th Atlantic, 1st Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

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In the NBA, the cold harsh reality is that there are only 2 distinct tiers of teams:

Tier 1
Those few that are actually trying to win the League Championship.

Tier 2
Everybody else.

Much R.E.S.P.E.C.T. to Otis Smith for “cutting to the chase” and improving the Orlando Magic each season, thus far.

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re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 14 – vs Orlando [Sun Nov 22]

The Magic’s 2nd trip to the ACC this season should prove to be more enjoyable for the visitors. Knowing full well what it feels like to play and lose a 1:00 PM game on Sunday afternoon, after spending the previous night in Toronto, should produce a much more determined effort from Orlando this time around … especially, with Rashard Lewis back in the line-up [i.e. following his league-imposed early season suspension]. 

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 5-9

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PS. During the 2006-2007 season Orlando [40-42/.488; 3rd Southeast] and Toronto [47-35/.573; 1st Atlantic] finished as the 8th and 3rd seeded teams in the EC playoffs, respectively. Since then, however, the fortunes of their franchises have gone in completely opposite directions. 

2007-2008, Orlando [1st Southwest; Lost 2nd Rd of Playoffs to Detroit]; Toronto [2nd Atlantic; Lost 1st Rd of playoffs to Orlando]

2008-2009, Orlando [Southwest, 1st; NBA Finalist]; Toronto [Atlantic 4th; missed playoffs]

2009-2010, Orlando [plus .500?]; Toronto [minus .500?]

With:

1. Vince Carter [G-F] now in Orlando and Hedo Turkoglu [SF] now in Toronto;

2. Dwight Howard [C] in Orlando and Andrea Bargnani [C] in Toronto;

3. Rashard Lewis [PF] in Orlando and Chris Bosh [PF] in Toronto;

4. Jameer Nelson [PG] in Orlando and Jose Calderon [PG] in Toronto;

5. JJ Redick [OG] in Orlando and DeMar DeRozan [OG] in Toronto;

6. Stan Van Gundy [head coach] in Orlando and Jay Triano [head coach] in Toronto;

7. Otis Smith/Dave Twardzik [as the management team] in Orlando and Bryan Colangelo/Maurizio Gherardini in Toronto [as the management team]; and,

8. Rich DeVos [as the owner] in Orlando and MLSE [as the owners] in Toronto;

it is going to be very interesting to see how these two franchises compare over the next few seasons. 

Thus far, this summer, every personnel move made by the Magic has been Right on the Money!

Magic close to signing C.J. Watson
The Orlando Magic are close to signing free agent point guard C.J. Watson, giving them an alternative to veteran Anthony Johnson as a backup to often-injured Jameer Nelson.

According to NBA sources, Watson could be signed as early as this weekend. Watson last season averaged 9.5 points and 2.7 assists, mostly as a backup for the Warriors. Golden State would have seven days to match any offer, since Watson is a restricted free agent.

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Yes, C.J. Watson is a restricted free agent and Golden State still has the right to match this offer from Orlando in order to retain his services … but, if the the Warriors decide to decline this opportunity, given the other PG’s they have on their roster, the Magic will have struck gold once again during the free agency period.

Whatever criticism may have been levied towards Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik prior to last season needs to be discarded as complete nonsense. No one makes a series of inter-connected moves over an extended period of time … like these manoeuvres … without having a well-formulated plan in place that is being gradually unfurled like clockwork. 

When you look at their roster from three seasons ago [40-42/.488, 3rd place Southeast] … and, then, compare it to what’s there now, surrounding a stud like D12 [C]:

STARTERS
1 Jameer Nelson, PG, 6th yr
2 Vince Carter, OG, 12th yr
3 Rashard Lewis, SF-PF, 12th yr 
4 Brandon Bass, PF, 5th yr
5 Dwight Howard, C, 6th yr

KEY SUBS
6 Anthony Johnson, PG, 13 yr
7 JJ Redick, OG, 4th yr
8 Mickael Pietrus, SF, 7th yr
9 Ryan Anderson, PF, 2nd yr
10 Marcin Gortat, C, 3rd yr

KEY RESERVES
11 C.J. Watson, PG, 3rd yr - ? [restricted free agent/Golden State]  
12 Jeremy Richardson, SF, 4th yr - ? [restricted free agent/Orlando]
13 Player X, PF/C - ? 

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Legend:
Italics - Added 2 seasons ago; Bold Italics - Added 1 season ago; Bold - Added this season.
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it’s a treat to see High End pro’s like this in action.

Despite the fact that there are those in Raptorville who think that their favourite team has perhaps improved the most of all, so far, this summer, there is now a growing number of NBA observers who do not see this off season’s respective pluses and minuses adding up in that exact way.

e.g.  Roundtable: Analyzing free agency

The most recent of these is a solid article yesterday, by Kelly Dwyer, that examines THE team which he believes has, in fact, improved the most this summer during the initial stage of the Free Agency period.

The Orlando Magic are stacked
Even if Carter steps back a bit, at his age. Even if Gortat sulks, Nelson doesn’t bounce back, Howard doesn’t turn into Kevin McHale, and Bass starts slowly. This team is still better. Way better. And we’ve barely mentioned Ryan Anderson’s pretty, pretty eyes.

Have they paid through the teeth? Are they trying to win now? Hell yes. That contract was signed as soon as the sign-and-trade with Rashard Lewis went through two summers ago. When they committed that much to a player in his prime, the Magic signed off on the win now scheme, even if Howard was years away from his peak.

That’s bad, if you screw it up. The Magic, Otis Smith and Dave Twardzik, haven’t screwed it up. And credit the team’s ownership for paying for a winner. Even before the new stadium goes up. Even in this economy. Good on them. Appreciate these moves, because this team is running rings around everyone else this summer. I wouldn’t be as excited for Richard Jefferson, cats and kittens.

There’s a good-to-great chance it could mean a second round exit. That’s how tough the East is at the top of the order, and that’s OK. Hedo will be just fine in his first couple of years in Toronto, VC is past his prime, and these moves aren’t exactly fiscally responsible.

Doesn’t matter. They’re moves. They’re great moves. This team went to the Finals last month, and in the four weeks since, it’s gotten much, much better. Appreciate that.

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The direct tie-in to the Raptors’ current situation shouldn’t be that hard for most of the team’s die-hard fans to see for themselves

[Note: Just in case they can't quite make it out properly, however, it's related to the names of one Vincent Lamar Carter, who made his NBA bones in Toronto, and the Turkish Michael Jordan [i.e. Hedo Turkoglu], who hopes to sustain his solid play of the last few seasons in his new digs north of the 49th Parallel.]

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If the general consensus in the on-line hoops community of NBA observers is that:

1 The Magic have indeed improved the most this off season, thus far;
2 The Magic, Cavaliers and Celtics … in any order of finish in the regular season standings you might choose to prefer … should prove to be the top 3 teams in the EC this year, with perhaps the Hawks [i.e. #4 last year, who have re-signed their own FA plus added J-Crawford] and the Heat [i.e. #5 last year, who are now in the running to add Iverson or Boozer and/or Odom] hot on their heels;

This would then seem to leave the Bulls, Bobcats, Bucks, Knicks, Nets, Pacers, Pistons, Raptors, 76ers and Wizards in a dogfight terrific race for the #6, #7 and #8 positions in the Eastern Conference Playoffs next season.