khandor’s sports blog

Where does your favourite team rank at the halfway point in the regular season schedule?

Related:

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

There are three main phases to the game of basketball:

i. Offense;
ii. Defense; and,
iii. Rebounding.

Developing an accurate understanding of the overall NBA talent which exists on the roster for each team at the beginning of the season is a fundamental aspect of properly evaluating the day-to-day goings-on across the league over the course of the season.

INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF TEAM ROSTERS IN NBA’S EASTERN CONFERENCE [as of Sun-Dec-25-2011]

Upon hearing the first report that the Phoenix Suns were actually thinking of waiving Mickael Pietrus … after his failed physical with the Toronto Raptors … the first thought which came to mind was that he would be a fantastic pick-up for Danny Ainge and the Boston Celtics.

To wit:

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Suns waive Mickael Pietrus

Before the Suns’ preseason home game against the Nuggets, head coach Alvin Gentry was asked why Pietrus wasn’t a fit, and to him, it seemed clear that Pietrus, for whatever reason, just wasn’t happy in Phoenix.

“I don’t know that,” Gentry answered. “I was excited about getting him. I think that, like I’ve said, he had size, he was really kind of our kind of player — a big guy that can shoot the ball, three-pointers and stuff like that. I think in order for it to be a good fit, you’ve got to want to be here. And I’m not sure if he was ever fully engaged in being here.”

UPDATE: Pietrus is “leaning heavily” towards signing with the Celtics, reports A. Sherrod Blakely of CSNNE.com. He would need to clear waivers first, but if that happens, it looks like Boston may be at the top of his list.

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After being under-valued by the Suns organization, since his acquisition last season from Orlando … where he was a key player in the Magic’s run to the NBA Finals in 2008-2009 … it would be poetic justice for Pietrus to become a vital part of what the Celtics are attempting to do this year [i.e. reduce salary overall WHILE remaining competitive in the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference].

Does Anyone Understand Advanced Stats?

What do Stats Tell You?

Zach and Henry Abbott (and indeed others) have scoffed at GMs when they consider simple things like per minute stats “advanced”. Basketball-Reference has been showing these for years and it is the first hit in Google for “Basketball Stats”. Rather than squabble over stats being easy or advanced though, we should ask what they tell us. Per minute stats are great. They tell you how well a player is doing in an easy defined range that makes it easy to make comparison across players.  In fact one of my first stat scans for any article is to use Basketball-Reference’s Player Comparison finder and look at the Per 36 Minutes Table  (for example Howard vs. Ibaka).

When you use a stat it’s not important if it is “advanced” or not, it’s important if it tells you useful information.

• Does blocks per minute give us useful information? Yes!
• Is it a better measure than blocks per game? Yes!
• Does a player’s Adjusted Plus Minus or Horoscope give you any useful information? No!

Yes, some people think APM is “advanced” (and someone might feel the same about a horoscope).   But who cares if a subset of a community has deemed APM “advanced”?

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According to Dre:

Blocks per minute are a better measure than blocks per game?

Hmmm …

Really?

The Facts, And Nothing But The Facts … are actually these:

1. Serge Ibaka registered a higher number of blocks per minute during the 2010-2011 season than did Dwight Howard.

2. Dwight Howard registered the same number of blocks per game during the 2010-2011 season as did Serge Ibaka.

3. Whether Serge Ibaka or Dwight Howard is actually a “better shot blocker” is indeterminable, based solely on their respective stats in categories like “blocks per minute” and “blocks per game” without, also, taking into consideration a host of other basketball-related factors, such as, “How each player was actually used, according to the specific game-plans of their respective teams during the 2010-2011 NBA season.”

Related

Q & A: An expert on experts tells us how to spot the bad ones

When Kris Humphries was strictly a back-up front-court player for the Raptors [i.e. in 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and 2008-2009] … and, then, needlessly traded away in a multi-team package deal to acquire Hedo Turkoglu [i.e. see A and B for further details] … there were very few – if any – other voices in the on-line hoops community extolling his virtues, as a solid future starting-calibre Power Forward in the NBA, if afforded a legitimate opportunity to ply his trade properly. Some 3-5 years later, however …

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Free Agency: Big Names

Who I’d pursue

• Kris Humphries [#3]. How many people heard of him before this? Well, here at the Wages of Wins network, all of us. That’s because he’s been surprisingly productive. Another great value-for-your-dollar player, he could be a great asset to any team, especially one lacking rebounders.

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it is gratifying to see that this corner’s original assessment of Kris Humphries’ actual basketball talent … made well in advance of others – i.e. including both stats gurus [!] and non stats-based NBA observers – was indeed highly accurate, while the vast majority of naysayers, at the time, have now been proven wrong.

The fact is …

While there is little-to-no “competitive advantage” generated by player “evaluations” that are exclusively post facto, based on simple comparative stats analysis, there can be a great deal of “competitive advantage” generated by taking careful note of the specific opinions [i.e. in the form of "evaluations" AND "projections"] offered by someone who legitimately has the ability to make an accurate assessment of a player’s actual basketball ability as much as 3-5 years in advance.

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PS. Cheers, “yertu damkule.”

FYI …

This is the “unofficial entry” for yours truly in the annual contest run by Henry Abbott: 

Eastern Conference, Quarter-finals

[1] Chicago [QIR/#1] vs [8] Indiana [QIR/#19]
SELECTION: Bulls in 5.

[4] Orlando [QIR/#3] vs [5] Atlanta [QIR/#15]
SELECTION: Magic in 7.

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[2] Miami [QIR/#2] vs [7] Philadelphia [QIR/#13]
SELECTION: Heat in 5.

[3] Boston [QIR/#5] vs [6] New York [QIR/#25]
SELECTION: Celtics in 6.

===================================

Western Conference, Quarter-finals

[1] San Antonio [QIR/#7] vs [8] Memphis [QIR/#9]
SELECTION: Spurs in 5.

[4] Oklahoma City [QIR/#9] vs [5] Denver [QIR/#12]
SELECTION: Nuggets in 6.

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[2] Los Angeles [QIR/#4] vs [7] New Orleans [QIR/#6]
SELECTION: Lakers in 5.

[3] Dallas [QIR/#7] vs [6] Portland [QIR/#11]
SELECTION: Trail Blazers in 6.

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PS. You might also benefit from knowing that no other “NBA Analyst” has forecast more playoff series accurately, in advance, over the course of the last 4 years, than yours truly.

Related:

What It Takes To Win The NBA Championship

It is simply astounding that a nonsensical perspective like this one:

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Vote Derrick Rose for love of the game

Players like Derrick Rose should be rewarded.

So, you MVP voters, if you just want to say that the Bulls are the best team in the NBA, and you love Derrick Rose and that’s that, I’m cool with it. Vote for the dude. To me, that’s a good enough rationale.

However, one little thing: Do not tell me that the reason you’re voting for him is because without him the Bulls would be a disaster.

That’s misguided and insulting. It’s a little insulting to Dwight Howard, who is the only candidate if that’s the rationale. (Even James is a stronger candidate by this measure.)

But mainly, it’s entirely insulting to everyone else who works for the Bulls.

The Bulls are a hot story today because they manhandled the Boston Celtics last night and are on track to finish at the top of the East. They didn’t beat the Celtics, though, because of Rose’s memorable pull-up 3s off the dribble. (Monta Ellis can do that too, and it doesn’t lead to all that many wins.)

They beat them because Paul Pierce and Ray Allen could barely get a shot off. The Celtics’ big four finished 15-of-43, and it’s not like they were missing bunnies.

Steals, shot-clock violations, fumbled passes, broken plays. The Celtics’ offense, last night, was complete and total mush — 38 percent from the floor — and that was no accident. That’s why they lost, and that’s not some gift Derrick Rose gave the Bulls.

That was because the Bulls knew exactly what to do. They do it to everybody. Tom Thibodeau took the ideas and direction that once made Boston the NBA’s best defense, and, against long odds, transported them to a new roster, where the players have bought in, in no small part because of Rose.

Defense is half the game, and at that, Thibodeau, is a wrecking crew.

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concerning the specific role which Derrick Rose has played this season for the Chicago Bulls …

should receive such widespread attention.

In review:

- The Chicago Bulls are the best team in the East, so far, this season. [Yes]

- Derrick Rose is the best player on the Bulls this season. [Yes]

- The Bulls have several other good-to-very-good players on their current roster. [Yes]

- The Bulls have the best Defensive team in the East this season. [Yes]

- Tom Thibodeau is a terrific defensive coach who has proved his mettle with the Bulls and the Boston Celtics [former Assistant Coach]. [Yes]

- The play of Derrick Rose has, somehow, NOT contributed to the Bulls’ top-rated Defensive performance this season. [Are you kidding?]

Hmmm …

As of Sat-Apr-09-2011, the IPR for Derrick Rose, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard looks like this:

1. LeBron James, +31.48

2. Dwight Howard, +28.39

3. Derrick Rose, +27.44

IPR = Individual Player Rating [i.e. kPER + TWLC]
kPER = Pts – [FGA-FGM] – [FTA-FTM] + Reb + Ast + St + Bl – TO – PF]/GP
TWLC = MPG/240 * [Team Wins - Team Losses]

The fact is:

- Statistically, LeBron James [SF, Miami Heat] has made the greatest contribution to the performance of his team this season, in comparison with the contributions of Dwight Howard [C, Orlando Magic] and Derrick Rose [PG, Chicago Bulls]

- Statistical production, in isolation, is not an accurate reflection of a single player’s contribution to the performance of his team in a given season.

When you examine each of the following rosters:

and consider:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1 Chicago Bulls, 59-20/.747

2-3 Miami Heat, 55-24/.696

4 Orlando Magic, 50-29/.633

A. Where each team will finish in the League Standings;

B. The games missed this season by Carlos Boozer [23] and Joakim Noah [34];

and,

C. Which OTHER players on each roster have the capacity to step up to replace the “contribution” made to their team this season by LeBron James, Dwight Howard, and Derrick Rose, should they each have been removed from their respective rosters this year, then, it is fairly clear-cut who should be named the Most “Valuable” Player for 2010-2011.

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Instead of wasting time and energy saying that Derrick Rose should not get the NBA’s MVP Award this season because of the outstanding work done by Tom Thibodeau and Gar Forman [and John Paxson], or because his simple game stats have been surpassed by LeBron James and Dwight Howard …

The Main Reason Derrick Rose SHOULD win the NBA’s MVP Award this season

- Without the way Derrick Rose has played, this version of the Bulls would, in all likelihood, have finished somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack in the East.

- However, with the way Derrick Rose has played, the Bulls are going to finish as the No. 1 team in the East.

The Main Reason Tom Thibodeau SHOULD win the NBA’s COTY Award this season

- Without the way Tom Thibodeau has coached, this version of the Bulls would, in all likelihood, have finished somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack in the East.

- However, with the way Tom Thibodeau has coached, the Bulls are going to finish as the No. 1 team in the East.

The Main Reason Gar Forman [and John Paxson] SHOULD win the NBA’s EOTY Award this season

- Without the way Gar Forman has GMed, this version of the Bulls would, in all likelihood, have finished somewhere in the middle-of-the-pack in the East.

- However, with the way Gar Forman has GMed, the Bulls are going to finish as the No. 1 team in the East.

Orlando Magic 98
TORONTO RAPTORS 102
Complete Game Summary

From a Raptors’ perspective …

What you should be able to take away from yesterday’s home-court victory:

- Toronto was more efficient than usual

On Defense
Orlando
Pts/98; Poss/95 [i.e. FGA/78, TO/8, and FFTA/12]; Pts/Poss = 1.032

On Offense
TORONTO
Pts/102; Poss/98 [i.e. FGA/79, TO/10 and FFTA/9]; Pts/Poss = 1.041  

Toronto’s PSPP-Diff [i.e. Points Scored Per Possession Differential]

To-date: -0.063 [i.e. Off. = 0.923; Def. = 0.986]
Yesterday: +0.009 [i.e. Off. = 1.041 (+0.118); Def. = 1.032 (-0.046)] 

In Rebounding
Orl: O-Reb/7, D-Reb/23 and T-Reb/30
TOR: O-Reb/15, D-Reb/33 and T-Reb/48

- Toronto played without Andrea Bargnani [C, Starter] … whose production was MORE THAN compensated for, collectively, by the work of Ed Davis [i.e. as the Starter], Reggie Evans [i.e. as the primary Back-up] and Joey Dorsey [i.e. as the secondary Back-up]

- Toronto played without Jose Calderon [PG, Starter] … whose production was equalized by Jerryd Bayless, as a capable temporary replacement in this role

- Toronto played without Jerry Bayless [PG, Back-up] … whose production was MORE THAN compensated for, individually, by the work of Leandro Barbosa who is a “best fit”, in the NBA, as a primary ‘change-of-pace’ Back-up PG, not a Back-up Combo Guard off the bench

- Orlando played without JJ Redick [OG], Gilbert Arenas [PG] and Chris Duhon [PG] … which meant they had NO legitimate Back-up PG in their line-up last night and were forced to use a combination of Richardson/Q  [+6] and Richardson/J [-19] in this crucial role, since they only used 8 players [i.e. including Allen/M and Anderson/R, as their 2 Bigs off the bench]

- Toronto is a favourite destination for visiting NBA players

- Toronto competed more aggressively throughout the game, and with an elevated level of Collective Determination because they did NOT have to “carry” a relatively weak Team Defender/Rebounder, who usually logs 35+ minutes at the crucial Center position

- Toronto marginally decreased its likelihood of earning as high a selection as possible in the 2011 NBA Drafft Lottery, by winning rather than losing this game … which is a sacrifice that should be MORE THAN compensated for, if the Raptors can learn the difficult lessons they NEED to learn from playing without the former No. 1 [overall] Selection in the 2006 NBA Draft Lottery and develop a Team Culture which is based on Hard Work, Defense, Rebounding and Shared Team Offense

If/when Bryan Colangelo [President/GM] realizes that the following regular rotation:

STARTERS
PG, Jose Calderon [who is more efficient, on Offense, than Jerryd Bayless]
OG, DeMar DeRozan
SF, James Johnson
PF, Amir Johnson
PF, Ed Davis

KEY SUBS
PG, Leandro Barbosa [who is a very good back-up at this position]
OG, Sonny Weems [who is a solid back-up]
SF, Linas Kleiza [who is a solid back-up]
PF, Reggie Evans [who is a solid back-up]
C, Whomever is obtained in a trade for Andrea Bargnani [or Alexis Ajinca]

RESERVES/EXTRAS/OUTS
PG, Veteran UFA [i.e. signed to a minimum contract this summer]
SF, Julian Wright [who is an easy cut to make this summer, if necessary]
PF/C, Joey Dorsey [who is an easy cut to make this summer, if necessary]
C, Solomon Alabi [who is an easy cut to make this summer, if necessary]
C, Alexis Ajinca [or whomever is obtained in a trade for Andrea Bargnani]

ADDITIONAL ASSETS
- Whomever is obtained in a trade for Jerryd Bayless [PG/OG, who is highly marketable this summer]
- 2011 NBA Draft Lottery Selection

is the best possible scenario for the Raptors, going forward from this point, then this franchise will at long last be heading in a right direction.

Despite losing the front end of a back-to-back last night [in Chicago], Toronto is actually in relatively good shape today to play a solid game, at home, against the Orlando Magic.

* The published wagering line for this event is:

OPENING: Orlando Magic -9

CURRENT: Orlando Magic -10 [as of 5:30 PM today]

* Orlando might be without 2 regular rotation players, i.e. given the recent injuries to Gilbert Arenas and JJ Redick, and may not even have a 2nd PG available, at all, given the possible absence of Chris Duhon.

* If the Individual Match-ups end up looking like this:

Orlando will have only a few  ’positional advantages’ throughout their line-up.

* Despite a poor overall W-L Record [20-55/.267], Toronto has played much better at home [i.e. 14-23/.378] this season.

* Despite a good overall W-L Record [48-28/.632], Orlando has played much poorer on the road [i.e. 21-17/.553] this season.

* Toronto might have the benefit of playing this game without Andrea Bargnani [C] … which, despite having less offensive fire-power, overall, should also enable them to play better Team Defense, Team Offense, and Rebound the ball more effectively, as a collective unit.

* In general, teams that arrive in Toronto 1 day prior to playing a Sunday evening game have the opportunity to spend a ‘lively‘ – and sometimes rather late – Saturday night in a truly world-class city, with the knowledge that they will not have to wake up early the next day, for an early afternoon tilt and, in the process, lose much of the advantage traditionally associated with not having played a game themselves the night before.

* Although the Consensus of All Selectors [i.e. 58.9%] favours Orlando to cover the published wagering line for this game, the vast majority of Team Experts [i.e. 75.0%] actually think that Toronto is more likely to get the cover.