khandor’s sports blog

Where does your favourite team rank at the halfway point in the regular season schedule?

Related:

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

Where is your favourite team in the race to win this year’s League Championship?

Related:

What it takes to win the NBA Championship

Does Anyone Understand Advanced Stats?

What do Stats Tell You?

Zach and Henry Abbott (and indeed others) have scoffed at GMs when they consider simple things like per minute stats “advanced”. Basketball-Reference has been showing these for years and it is the first hit in Google for “Basketball Stats”. Rather than squabble over stats being easy or advanced though, we should ask what they tell us. Per minute stats are great. They tell you how well a player is doing in an easy defined range that makes it easy to make comparison across players.  In fact one of my first stat scans for any article is to use Basketball-Reference’s Player Comparison finder and look at the Per 36 Minutes Table  (for example Howard vs. Ibaka).

When you use a stat it’s not important if it is “advanced” or not, it’s important if it tells you useful information.

• Does blocks per minute give us useful information? Yes!
• Is it a better measure than blocks per game? Yes!
• Does a player’s Adjusted Plus Minus or Horoscope give you any useful information? No!

Yes, some people think APM is “advanced” (and someone might feel the same about a horoscope).   But who cares if a subset of a community has deemed APM “advanced”?

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According to Dre:

Blocks per minute are a better measure than blocks per game?

Hmmm …

Really?

The Facts, And Nothing But The Facts … are actually these:

1. Serge Ibaka registered a higher number of blocks per minute during the 2010-2011 season than did Dwight Howard.

2. Dwight Howard registered the same number of blocks per game during the 2010-2011 season as did Serge Ibaka.

3. Whether Serge Ibaka or Dwight Howard is actually a “better shot blocker” is indeterminable, based solely on their respective stats in categories like “blocks per minute” and “blocks per game” without, also, taking into consideration a host of other basketball-related factors, such as, “How each player was actually used, according to the specific game-plans of their respective teams during the 2010-2011 NBA season.”

Related

Q & A: An expert on experts tells us how to spot the bad ones

Unfortunately …

Scott Brooks showed last night that he did not learn the proper lesson from the Thunder’s 2nd half meltdown in Game 4 [i.e. Exhibit A] against the Mavericks:

Oklahoma City Thunder 96
DALLAS MAVERICKS 100
Complete Game Summary
Dallas wins series, 4-1.

If you examine the GameFlow Chart, you should be able to see clearly that:

- Only 1 of Oklahoma City’s 5 starters finished this game as a “positive” Plus/Minus player

i.e. The same player who sat on the bench for the final 20:41 of Game 4.

- This same player was removed from left last night’s contest for the final time at the 1:55 mark of the 3rd quarter … with the Thunder leading by 4 points, 72-68 … and, was then forced to watch helplessly from the bench as his teammates [i] made turnovers, [ii] missed [a] mid-range and [b] perimeter jump-shots, and [iv] failed to corral at least 3 loose balls in the final frantic minutes of the 4th quarter

- This same player [i] already has a championship ring, as a core member of the Boston Celtics’ ‘Ubuntu’ team from 3 years ago, and [ii] specializes in low-post offense, defense, and rebounding

As a result, Oklahoma City’s post-season run is now, prematurely, finished. 

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PS. Those who fail to recognize the importance of ‘outstanding coaching’ vs ‘less-than-outstanding coaching’ are simply wasting their time, when it comes to providing accurate ‘analysis’ of, “How the NBA game actually works.”

PPS. If OKC would have finished last night’s game with the following 5-man unit on the floor: 1. PG/Westbrook, 2. OG/Harden, 3. SF/Durant, 4. PF/Collison, and 5. C/Perkins; then, in all likelihood, the Thunder would now be preparing for tomorrow night’s Game 6 [in Oklahoma City].

PPPS. If OKC is going to become a significantly better team over the course of the next few seasons, then, Scott Brooks will have to become a significantly better in-game strategist/tactician, as well.

Prior to the start of this year’s NBA Playoffs, yours truly characterized the Oklahoma City Thunder as a very good young team … without a legitimate shot at winning the League Championship this season.

Q. How come?

A. Scott Brooks still has a great deal to learn about coaching, and winning important games, in the NBA Playoffs.

Unfortunately, the outcome of last night’s contest, now serves as Exhibit A, in this regard.

Dallas Mavericks 112
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 105, OT
Complete Game Info
Dallas leads the series, 3-1

If you examine the:

1. Play-By-Play;

and, 

2. GameFlow Chart;

from last night, you should be able to see that Kendrick Perkins [C] was replaced by Serge Ibaka [PF] at the 3:41 mark of the 3rd quarter with the Thunder leading by 7 points [75-68] … and was never re-inserted by Scott Brooks for the remainder of the game, even though:

i. James Harden [OG-SF] fouled out at the 4:33 mark of the 4th quarter with OKC leading by 12 points, 99-87;   

and,

ii. K-Perk had led the Thunder to that point with a simple “NBA Plus/Minus” rating of +9.

Kevin Durant’s 9 Turnovers are not what lost last night’s game for OKC.

Russell Westbrook’s missed free throws and jump-shots late in the 4th quarter are not what lost last night’s game for OKC.

What lost last night’s game for OKC was:

I. Scott Brooks’ decision to play the tandem of Serge Ibaka [PF] and Nick Collison [PF-C], exclusively, from the 3:41 mark of the 3rd quarter, through the entire 4th quarter and, then, almost the entire 5-minute Overtime period;

II. While still emphasizing the Thunder’s:

A. Pick & Roll/Pop game with Russell Westbrook as their primary ball-handler;

and,

B. Perceived “Individual Match-up Advantage” with Westbrook [i.e. quicker] used relentlessly to attack Jason Kidd [i.e. slower] off the dribble;

in conjunction with,

III. Their team’s inability to get “stops” late in the 4th quarter and the Overtime; 

… without Kendrick Perkins on the floor.

Despite being heralded for the “brave” decision he made in the 4th quarter of Game 2, to keep several of his bench players in the game, coming down-the-stretch … in spite of their ever-shrinking lead … the simple fact is, Scott Brooks is still a long ways off from being classified properly as a Top Notch head coach in the NBA, when it comes to making in-game adjustments and implementing specific strategies, or tactics, at the correct time, which emphasize the right things and allow his players to succeed in a major way.

Hopefully last night’s disappointing outcome for OKC will serve as an invaluable [and extremely painful] learning experience for Coach Brooks and Misters Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Sefolosha, Harden, etc., when it comes to understanding properly the specific role that Kendrick Perkins needs to play on their team, going forward.

He is “The Defensive Anchor and The Rebounding Fulcrum” upon which their recent success is based, and he needs to be on the floor for their team at crunch time, if they are going to win big games against tough-minded opponents.

Sit back and enjoy the fireworks!

PART I

PART II

A simply scintillating night of basketball.

FYI …

This continues the “unofficial entry” for yours truly in the annual contest run by Henry Abbott: 

Eastern Conference, Semi-finals

[1] Chicago [QIR/#1] vs [4] Atlanta [QIR/#15]
SELECTION: Bulls in 5.

[2] Miami [QIR/#2] vs [3] Boston [QIR/#5]
SELECTION: Boston in 6.

==================================

Western Conference, Semi-finals

[4] Oklahoma City [QIR/#9] vs [8] Memphis [QIR/#9]
SELECTION: Thunder in 7.

[2] Los Angeles [QIR/#4] vs [3] Dallas [QIR/#7]
SELECTION: Lakers in 6.

The NBA Playoffs are set to tip-off in approximately 40 minutes.

This year, there are a number of teams with legitimate aspirations to win the league championship, including:

Chicago Bulls [EC1]
Miami Heat [EC2]
Boston Celtics [EC3]
San Antonio Spurs [WC1]
LA Lakers [WC2]

based on:

#1. The overall ability level of their rotational players;

#2. The specific ability levels of their bonafide “star” players;

#3. The ability level of their coach [and his staff];

#4. The prior experience of their rotational players; and,

#5. The prior experience of their coach [and his staff]. 

Below this elite group, there is a larger 2nd tier, that is very strong, as well, but with individial teams that fall just short of the 1st tier, in one or more of the above criteria, including:

Dallas [i.e. deficient in #2]
Orlando [i.e. deficient in #2]
Oklahoma City [i.e. deficient in #3 and #4]
Denver [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4] 
New York [i.e. deficient in #1 and #3]
Philadelphia [i.e. deficient in #2 and #4]
Atlanta [i.e. deficient in #2, #3 and #5]
Portland [i.e. deficient in #1, #2 and #4]

Below this 2nd group, there is a 3rd tier, which contains individual teams that are not quite where the others are … as of yet … in terms of “readiness” to advance beyond the 2nd Round of the Playoffs, based on the criteria above AND specific personnel absences, including:

New Orleans [i.e. missing a key player in David West]
Memphis [i.e. Playoffs newbies]
Indiana [Playoffs newbies]

Given how close the top 5 teams are to one another this year, and to what degree the eventual outcome can/will be determined by a single crucial injury, at an inopportune moment …

Kudos to Marc Spears [Yahoo! Sports, NBA Analyst] for going out on a limb, early on, with his prediction for this year’s championship-winning team.

Related:
Odds To Win The NBA Championship

FYI …

This is the “unofficial entry” for yours truly in the annual contest run by Henry Abbott: 

Eastern Conference, Quarter-finals

[1] Chicago [QIR/#1] vs [8] Indiana [QIR/#19]
SELECTION: Bulls in 5.

[4] Orlando [QIR/#3] vs [5] Atlanta [QIR/#15]
SELECTION: Magic in 7.

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[2] Miami [QIR/#2] vs [7] Philadelphia [QIR/#13]
SELECTION: Heat in 5.

[3] Boston [QIR/#5] vs [6] New York [QIR/#25]
SELECTION: Celtics in 6.

===================================

Western Conference, Quarter-finals

[1] San Antonio [QIR/#7] vs [8] Memphis [QIR/#9]
SELECTION: Spurs in 5.

[4] Oklahoma City [QIR/#9] vs [5] Denver [QIR/#12]
SELECTION: Nuggets in 6.

—————————————————————-

[2] Los Angeles [QIR/#4] vs [7] New Orleans [QIR/#6]
SELECTION: Lakers in 5.

[3] Dallas [QIR/#7] vs [6] Portland [QIR/#11]
SELECTION: Trail Blazers in 6.

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PS. You might also benefit from knowing that no other “NBA Analyst” has forecast more playoff series accurately, in advance, over the course of the last 4 years, than yours truly.