khandor’s sports blog

Orlando Magic 125
TORONTO RAPTORS 116
[Sun Nov 01 2009]

Box Score Info

Crucial Sequence, Play-By-Play

Crucial Sequence, Substitution Chart

Gruesome Details

1. Orlando played without Vince Carter [Starting Off Guard], Mickael Pietrus [Starting Small Forward] and Rashard Lewis [Starting Power Forward].

2. Between the end of the 1st Quarter [36-28] and the 7:03 mark of the 2nd Quarter, Orlando opened up a 22 point lead [54-32].

3. The Raptors players who were on the floor for this specific segment of the game were:

PG - Jarrett Jack [3:57, -14]
OG - Marco Belinelli [3:44, -9]; Antoine Wright [1:13, -5]
SF - Antoine Wright [3:44, -9]; Hedo Turkoglu [1:13, -5]
PF - Chris Bosh [3:14, -7]; Amir Johnson [1:43, -7]
C - Rasho Nesterovic [3:14, -7]; Andrea Bargnani [1:43, -7]

4. There are good reasons why Indiana, Golden State, Dallas, Milwaukee and Orlando each chose not to retain the services of Misters Jack, Belinelli, Wright, Johnson and Turkoglu, respectively, this past summer AND the Raptors need to seriously consider limiting the floor time given to Andrea Bargnani this season.

Instead of placing blame for this loss on a player like Jose Calderon [PG] … whose specific strengths and weaknesses were well-known two seasons ago when he first won the Starting PG job over incumbent TJ Ford … accusing fingers in Raptorville should be pointing in an entirely different direction, i.e. at the architect[s] of the team.

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PS. Raptors fans were told in the summer which specific teams SHOULD have been viewed, both, at the time and down-the-road, as the BIGGEST winners in the four-team [blockbuster?] trade between Toronto [1-2], Memphis [1-2], Dallas [2-1] and Orlando [3-0]. Shame on you, if you were one of those who chose NOT to listen back then.

PPS. Yes, the 2009-2010 regular season is only 3 games old for the Raptors, but … when you look closely at the first 20 games on their schedule … it doesn’t get any easier for Toronto until the 2nd week of December.

Related:

When three birds of a different feather flock together it’s a poor omen for the Raptors

Courtesy of Dave [nbaroundtable]…

Bargnani vs Player X
re: Rebounding

Remember, Player X has won an extra three rebounds for his team giving his team three extra possessions.

Once again, his Raptors teammates lead the league in turnovers and score at a very inefficient rate. With these three possessions, they manage 2.48 points per game.

Total

Player X’s offensive contribution + rebounding contribution now stands at 17.78 points per game.

Therefore, Andrea Bargnani still leads the contest with his 19 points.

Defense

Andrea Bargnani is a below average defender. Player X is an average defender. There is an advantage there, but how much does that advantage add for the Raptors?

I’m not going to put a number out here … since it’s so subjective … I’ll leave this to the readers to come up with their own evaluation/number.

The question is, does Bargnani’s lesser defensive contributions versus an average defensive big man cost the Raptors more or less than 1.22 points per game? Over the course 35 minutes a night? What do you think?

Final Thoughts

Let’s ignore the question of Bargnani being a star player, a core player, a possible All-Star for now … instead, let’s ask a far simpler question:

Is Bargnani better than Player X?

A player who is not even an average player overall. A mediocre defender + rebounder, and a below par offensive player.

And secondly …

Even if you feel Bargnani is better than Player X … shouldn’t Bargnani be blowing a player like this out of the water.

After all, the man is being given 35 minutes a night and is considered one of the Raptors four best players, and has just been handed a $50 million contract extension.

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Check the comments section for the views of yours truly.

To fulfil a simple request made by Dave [nbaroundtable] … over at RaptorsRepublic.com … here’s a specific Poll Question which should be most interesting to see the results for between now and the start of the 2009-2010 regular season.

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Use the Comments section to elaborate further on your answers [e.g. giving your analysis of the EC, on the whole, if you'd like] and, in particular, to identify yourself, as: [A] a Raptors fan, or [B] a fan of a different NBA team, or [C] an unbiased ‘NBA observer’.

Related:

Roundtable: Analyzing free agency

An accurate understanding of what exactly is going on these days in Raptorville is not arrived at easily for many of the team’s rabid fans who are active participants in the on-line hoops community. Amidst the general euphoria that has taken hold in the aftermath of last week’s seemingly stunning 4-team trade extravaganza with Dallas, Orlando and Memphis … which netted the Raptors:

* Hedo Turkoglu [F, Orlando, UFA]
* Antoine Wright [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season]
* Devean George [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season], and
* Preserved their right to use the Mid Level Exception [MLE], the Low Level Exception [LLE], and exercise their [Larry] Bird Rights towards resigning their own Unrestricted Free Agents [UFA]

at the expense of:

* Shawn Marion [Sign & Trade with Orlando, UFA]
* Kris Humphries [trade with Dallas; injured much of last season]
* Nathan Jawai [trade with Dallas; disabled much of last season]
* 2nd Round Draft Pick/2016 [trade with Dallas]
* Cash Considerations [trade with Dallas] 

The stark reality of this team’s current situation is perhaps best reflected in the bright lights of the following 5 observations:

PART ONE
The post-trade outlook for the Raptors which was first put together by “Dave” [nbaroundtable, Thu July 9], extolling the possible virtues:

Where do the Raptors go from here?

PART TWO
The specific comment which “Dave” then left in a different thread on his blog, later that same afternoon, indicating his actual thoughts on their chances to succeed with their current roster configuration:

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Four team trade: Shawn Marion to Dallas
2011/12

This is the Raptors fail safe option. When they fail, and they will fail, they need to have this option open to them and then use this option.

This means no extra contracts that last beyond two years. I will dislike pretty much any contract that goes beyond two seasons. As long as the contract is than two seasons, spending that money doesn’t bother me in the slightest.

Dead End

The Raptors are going nowhere, and they need a miracle to happen for this plan to have any chance of working out. The Raptors are going to run into [sic] dead end.

Now, it’s time just to sit back and let things play out. Things will not improve until Colangelo figures out Bargnani isn’t a cornerstone of this franchise … until that happens, there’s nothing else that can be done to put the Raptors on the right road.

The Raptors can’t get out of the corner that they’ve boxed themselves into, until Bargnani is moved on. Any aspirations for a title are on hold until this happens.

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PART THREE
The specific comment which was made on this blog [July 11, 11:35 AM], by yours truly, that addressed the supposed “Qualitative Improvement” of the Raptors current roster pieces in comparison with last season’s end-of-year squad, pertaining to the question of:

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Which team made out best from 4-team trade?
IMO, the Raptors have made upgrades in certain areas thus far but it would be a mistake in judgment to assess this improvement as being “a lot better“, just yet:

No BEFORE ADV AFTER

1 Calderon = Calderon
2 Parker <– Wright … AP is significantly better
3 Marion = Turkoglu … Turkoglu is NOT significantly better
4 Bosh = Bosh
5 Bargnani = Bargnani
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6 Ukic = Ukic
7 Kapono –> DeRozan * … cyclical due to draft
8 Graham = George … Devean is NOT significantly better
9 Humphries = Evans … Reggie is NOT significantly better
10 O’Bryant –> Nesterovic … Rasho is much better!
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11 Douby = Delfino … is different but NOT much better
12 Mensah-Bonsu = Mensah-Bonsu
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13 Banks = Banks
14 Jawai ? Barnes … jury still out on Nathan
15 Voskuhl = O’Bryant

Those who are looking at these changes in an excessively positive light are the ones looking through rose-coloured spectacles.

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PART FOUR
The Shifting Player Personnel Chart that was constructed by yours truly yesterday:

which shows the drastic player changes that have happened with the Raptors for each of the past two seasons. 

PART FIVE
The glaring RED ALERT that was issued on Sunday by David Berri [i.e. noted economist, NBA "sage & soothsayer", author of The Wages of Wins Journal]:

Dashing Hope in Toronto
Not a Pretty Picture in Toronto

When we put the whole picture together, it appears the Raptors will employ the following starting line-up in 2009-10: Calderon (PG), Wright and/or DeRozan (SG), Turkoglu (SF), Bosh (PF), Bargnani [C].  Last season the NBA veterans in this line-up combined to produce fewer than 30 wins. So unless these players improve dramatically, or the team finds very productive players off the bench, it’s hard to see how this team improves dramatically.  And that’s true even if Delfino returns to Toronto (although if Evans returns to what we saw in the past there might be some hope this team can get past 40 wins).

All of this means that

1. Turkoglu will be seeing much more money in 2009-10, but probably far fewer wins.
2. Bargnani will also see much more money, but it seems unlikely he is ever going to produce many wins.
3. Bosh will see even more money after this next season, but if the Raptors don’t approach 45 or 50 wins (which seems likely) then it seems unlikely that the money Bosh is paid in the future is going to be paid by the Raptors.
4. So it looks likely the Raptors record performance in 2007-08 will stand for awhile.  In other words, if Bosh departs this team in 2010, then rebuilding will probably continue beyond 2009-10.
5. And this means — assuming the Raptors don’t make any major change to this team — the fans of the Raptors will keep paying money to see a team that’s not contending for a title.

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Experience says that when disparate individuals like:

1. “Dave” [nbaroundtable] … who combines statistics with Basketball Acumen;

2. khandor [that's me ] … who relies primarily on Basketball Acumen;

and,

3. David Berri … who relies heavily on a statistical approach to the analysis of on-court production for players in the NBA;

actually arrive at a similar conclusion … which is essentially opposed to the GENERAL CONSENSUS that exists in Raptorville today … it portends of difficult times ahead for this team in the coming season.

In the best interests of the franchise, let’s hope that all three of these “stray birds” are eventually proven to be wrong in their assessment of the team. 

According to different on-line reports published yesterday …

Trevor Ariza is now actively looking for greener pastures in which to ply his trade next season.

According to yours truly THAT specific move would be a colossal mistake in judgment … should he land anywhere but in Cleveland, as the principal side-kick to King James.

At present, Mr. Ariza is in the perfect situation for himself … playing and developing his skills at the side of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher, Andrew Bynum, Luke Walton, Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar, et al., under the expert leadership of the ZenMaster.

Should he choose to give THAT up … in wanton pursuit of greed “more money” … and touch-down with a different team, other than the Cavaliers … there’s a more than fair chance he will play the remainder of his career without winning another NBA Title. 

That said …

If you look at this list of current Free Agents [courtesy of the excellent blog nbaroundtable, operated by Dave]:

2009 NBA Free Agent List - Part Two

… and you’ve actually taken the time to read some or all of what’s been written on various web sites under the name of “khandor” … you should be able to identify those few names which the Lakers SHOULD actively pursue, as a cost-effective replacement for a highly serviceable Wing player like T-Ariza … who seems to be lacking a certain measure of humility and intelligence, at this most interesting stage of his still young career in the NBA … given the financial crunch that Los Angeles finds itself in at the present time.

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Q1. Can you guess those few names correctly?

A1. Methinks, at least, some of you have the ability to do just THAT.

[Hint: Who are the long, relatively athletic Wing players on that list that can defend multiple positions, rebound, run the floor, make occasional jump shots, pass and cut within the Triangle Offense and, perhaps most importantly, also assume a deferential role with the Lakers to the personalities of Black Mamba, et al., at a salary level which would allow LA to keep the rest of their team intact for the coming campaign, in pursuit of back-to-back championships? It really shouldn't be that difficult to figure out.]

PS. The irony involved in a situation like THAT … i.e. for Raptors fans … would simply be outrageous.

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Answers [spelled in reverse]: semaJ, notelgniS; oiramaJ, nooM; tnarG, lliH; yeoJ, maharG; and, yendoR, yenraC.

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Recent Update

* PLEASE NOTE: On the other hand, should T-Ariza actually end up with an outfit like the Portland Trail Blazers, in place of, let’s say, Hedo Turkoglu … that would mean that both he and Kevin Pritchard are, in fact, as smart as this corner of the net had previously given them credit for being.

There are plenty of others on-line who do not understand when yours truly speaks about the difference between:

A. How “an average” NBA coach and organization thinks about the “best player[s]” on their own team, in terms of building and then maintaining a Winning culture based on a ”Team Success” ethic

and,

B. How a “Top Notch” NBA coach and organization thinks about the same thing.

Evidence of that?

Exhibit A - Understanding Chris Bosh

Then, however, someone like Gregg Popovich is quoted in an article saying something like this: 

Money talks, and Manu stays
There’s always a chance. Popovich said that. “People get in trouble when they say never,” Popovich said Wednesday.

If somebody makes what Popovich calls “a stupid offer,” then who knows?

“But Manu Ginobili is someone I cannot envision trading,” Popovich continued. “He has been such a huge part of our heart and soul; people like that are hard to come by. You don’t even think about trading somebody like that. I can’t imagine a scenario where he would be traded.”

which echoes those same sentiments, exactly.

1. There’s no denying that Gregg Popovich is a Top Notch NBA coach.

2. There’s no denying that the SA Spurs are a Top Notch NBA organization.

Ergo …

3. There’s no denying that these exact sentiments exemplify THE WAY in which a Top Notch coach and organization thinks about their best player[s].

Your Honour … in this instance, The Defense Rests.

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Related: 

Trade Idea: San Antonio and Memphis

2009 Cap Concerns: San Antonio