khandor’s sports blog

From David Aldridge …

Draft preview: Closer look at the shooting guards

From a Raptors’ perspective

If Toronto can successfully trade down from the No. 9 slot, in exchange for a Lower 1st Round Pick and, in the process, pick-up an additional 2nd Round Selection … one Marcus Thornton,

i.e. scored 30 in the NCAAs against Butler and has an NBA-ready body that has scouts comparing him, physically, with a Mitch Richmond.

“He’s a volume scorer,” says one scout. “He’s a little bit wild, a little streaky. When he gets going you can’t stop him. he’ll get six, seven buckets in a row on you quick, from all kinds of distances. But he needs a lot of shots to get a lot of points. A very poor man’s Ben Gordon.”

who is a Top Flight NBA prospect, as a shooter/scorer, in the mold of  Richmond, Gordon, and, yes, Ray Allen, may still be there for them. 

Those who think that Marcus Thornton might struggle scoring at the next level might also be in for a big surprise.

For those of you who are lacking some degree of familiarity with many of the principal prospects on the board in next week’s Draft, this specific preview is well worth your time.

Anytime you can get the perspective of an actual NBA head coach, who is well-respected by his peers, as Mike Fratello is, then that is an invaluable opportunity which you should not miss.

As yours truly has suggested here, numerous times in the past … 

There is a huge difference between how a Top Notch NBA coach actually thinks about the game in comparison with everybody else, including NBA scouts, GMs, “so-called” NBA experts/analysts and – perhaps, most importantly - regular, everyday fans.

Enjoy … one and all!

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PS. NBA.com has a Draft Preview posted for each team in the league. Highly recommended viewing for those seeking to learn more about this year’s prospective draftees from the POV of someone like Mike Fratello.

Related:

2009 NBA Draft: Consensus Mock Draft [Picks #1-14]

    vs    

At half-time of the currently in-progress Utah/Phoenix game, the Monster Mash just declared, on ESPN, that he is personally guaranteeing that King James will, in fact, Average A Triple Double [for an entire season], at some point during his NBA career … replicating one of the all-time great achievements in the History of the League, accomplished only 1 time, ever, by the one, the only Big O.

To which, not only Stuart Scott but, this corner as well, was simply forced to say the equivalent of, “Say What? Run that by me again?”

At which point, Monster Mash clearly and succinctly re-iterated his original claim, so there could be no mistaking it:

“I guarantee it.”

Now, while yours truly has always had a healthy amount of R.E.S.P.E.C.T. for a former Wild cat like Jamal – dating back to this very special game, right here, despite the losing outcome for his team - and is, in general, properly categorized as a PASS LINE player … contrary to popular belief in the minds of some Raptors fans … THAT specific claim is one which cannot go forth unchallenged, in perpetuity, by a symbolic representative of the Knights Templar of the NBA’s Roundtable, who understands the authentic magnitude of What Exactly Was Accomplished by Oscar Robertson, during that one Magical, Mystery Tour of a NBA season, in 1961-1962. 

It says, here & now, that …

Jamal Mashburn’s specific claim made this evening on live TV … will, in fact, NOT come to fruition during the course of Lebron James’ illustrious NBA career.

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In the spirit of True Sporting Excellence, however … Let us ALL truly hope that “time” eventually proves yours truly WRONG and the Monster Mash RIGHT on the $$$, in this case.

The Portland Trail Blazers are 2nd in the Northwest Division with a 43-26/.623 W-L Record, 1 game behind the Denver Nuggets, and hold 6th place team in the Western Conference … after failing to qualify for the playoffs last year. 

This is the Box Score from their game last night, a tough loss at Cleveland, in OT [92-97].

This is the Full Play-By-Play.

These are some of the observations made by Henry Abbott, a die-hard Blazermania Fan, based on what he saw in this game and hoped for Out-of-the-Box-thinking which he felt might have made a positive impact on the eventual outcome for Nate McMillan’s team coming down the stretch.

What you might not realize, however, about this current edition of the playoff-bound Blazers is that they are doing this work this season without the services of their Starting Off Guard-Small Forward, Martell Webster, who put up these numbers for their squad last year:

and has missed 68 of their 69 games played, so far, this season.

Instead of going with the crunch-time line-up suggested by TrueHoop’s author, what yours truly is really looking forward to seeing from the Blazers down the road … whether later this spring or next season … is this specific 5-Man Unit on the floor together with the game on the line:

PG - Brandon Roy [6-6, 211]
OG – Martell Webster 
SF – Travis Outlaw [6-9, 207]
PF - LaMarcus Aldridge [6-11, 240]
C - Greg Oden [7-0, 285]

When the Blazers’ overall team health is such that they can field that specific group, in a playoffs series, with the likes of:

PG – Sergio Rodriguez
PG – Steve Blake
PG – Jerryd Bayless
OG – Rudy Fernandez
SF – Nicolas Batum
PF – Channig Frye
C – Joel Przybilla

in reserve, they will be a legitimate contender to reach the Western Conference Finals.

There is some really wonderful old school stuff on-line today, if you just keep your eyes [and ears] wide open.

Enjoy …

Internet Gold!

PS. Given the Raptors’ shooting woes this season, perhaps they could benefit from a little “Red tune-up”?

There are many different ways to assess the performance of a player or a team, in general, in a basketball game.

One of the simpliest is this:

1. Use a traditional Box Score.

2. Count Rebounds [Reb], Assists [Ast], Steals [Stl], Blocked Shots [BS] and Points Scored [Pts] as “Positives”.

3. Count Missed FGAs [FGA-FGM], Missed FTAs [FTA-FTM], Turnovers [TO] and Personal Fouls [PF] as “Negatives”.

4. Do NOT weight any of the individual statistical categories in an unique way.

5. Add the “Positives” and the “Negatives” together for that specific game.

6. Refer to this “Composite” number as a form of “Simple Plus/Minus” [SPM] which reflects each player’s tangible contribution to that specific game, relative to one another.

7. Compare each player’s and each team’s SPM for this specific game.

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When you take a look at the Box Score for last night’s Raptors vs Grizzlies game, as an example, and examine it in this way, this is what you will find:

There were only 3 players for the Raptors whose raw performance numbers [i.e. SPM] indicate that they made a positive contribution overall to their team’s effort and at least held their own against their counterparts for the Grizzlies:

1. Jamario Moon [+17, MP/28]

2. Jose Calderon [+12, MP/36]

3. Joey Graham [+9, MP/26].

When different NBA Analysts state that there are certain players on the Raptors who are being used incorrectly, or are better basketball players than many casual NBA fans might realize, this is the type of basic statistical evaluation upon which these assessments are based.

Although rudimentary game stats like SPM do not always tell the whole truth about how a player or a team actually performed in a specific match-up, they can certainly be helpful in this regard and allow a casual fan to increase his/her understanding of both Effectiveness & Efficiency in a NBA game.

If you watched last night’s Raptors/Grizzlies contest, either live or on videotape delay … 

Were you able to tell at the time that Moon, Calderon and Graham were the 3 best players for Toronto?

… and that:

1. Andrea Bargnani [0, MP/31]

2. Jake Voskuhl [0, MP/2]

3. Roko Ukic [+1, MP/16]

4. Anthony Parker [+2, MP/40] 

5. Jason Kapono [+4, MP/30]
6. Jermaine O’Neal [+5, MP/32]

might have been their 6 worst?

If not … then maybe next time you will see a few things in a slightly different light.

When this corner of the sports blogosphere told you earlier this fall/summer that the Raptors trade for Jermaine O’Neal was not going to be enough, by itself, to fundamentally improve Toronto’s Rebounding Deficiency from the last few seasons there were boatloads of delusional fans some who did not want to believe this specific assessment of this team, in advance of actually seeing real live NBA games this season with their own two eyes.

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How could the acquisition of a former 6-time NBA All-Star …

in exchange for a smallish, erractic [but talented] Point Guard [i.e. TJ Ford], an over-the-hill, lumbering, strictly speaking part-time Center [i.e. Rasho Nesterovic], the 15th player from their roster last season [i.e. Maceo Baston], and a flip-flop of the No. 17 [overall] and No. 41 Draft Picks from the 2008 NBA Draft, who turned out to be Roy Hibbert [C] and Nathan Jawai [C], respectively …

possibly NOT improve the Raptors decidely mediocre rebounding numbers from the last few years in any significant way, shape or form?

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Well … as of Thursday, November 6, 2008 the Basketball Acumen of this specific correspondent seems to be as sharp [and accurate] as ever:

[Statistics from NBA.com]

When a certain NBA observer tells you something about ‘How the Game actually Works in this League’, in advance … it might well be in your best interests to believe what this person has to say, even though you are not able to fully comprehend it, at that point in time.

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“The proof of the pudding is in the eating.” – Anonymous

My friends, it simply doesn’t get any better than this …

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Conversation: Bill Russell and Jerry West catch up
The NBA season is here! What better way to tip it off than with some insights from Hall of Famers Bill Russell and Jerry West?

They were happy to let us listen in as they reflected on their Celtics-Lakers rivalry, the offseason preparation needed to excel for 82 games, and what they are looking forward to most this NBA season. Here’s the conversation. Enjoy… we sure did.

Jerry West: Hello, Bill.

Bill Russell: Jerry, is that you?

Jerry West: Yes, it is.

Bill Russell: Now, Jerry, Cabin Creek, is that the place you’re from?

Jerry West: Yes, it is, Bill and I’m going to take you there before too long.

Bill Russell: Ok, let’s go. [cackles]

Jerry West: Bill, the NBA season is about to tip off, what are you most looking forward to?

Bill Russell: The Celtics and the Lakers. Both teams will have to improve to get back to the Finals. If you show up saying we’re the Lakers and the Celtics, you’ll get your hat brought to you. You lose some games and you say those are upsets. They will not be upsets.

For example, when Red [Auerbach] didn’t draft [Bob] Cousy, he drafted a guy named Charlie Share because George Mikan was the dominant player in the league and Share had the size and ability to compete with George. Red’s theory was: To be competitive you have to be competitive with the best teams.

All the teams are figuring a way to beat the Celtics and the Lakers. There were a lot of personnel changes [with both teams], not necessarily star players, but players that become part of their rotation. So I would give both teams a heads up that to get back to the Finals, you’re going to have to be better than last year.

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Mandatory reading for all!

In general, David Aldridge’s review is an unbiased evaluation of the transactions made by all 30 teams in the NBA, since the end of the 2007-2008 season, when the Boston Celtics were crowned League Champions.

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Ranking the off season moves
PROJECTION: If you think the oft-injured O’Neal has a lot left, the Raptors made a great trade. Pairing O’Neal and Chris Bosh down low gives Sam Mitchell a lethal inside presence, one that will pay off with open looks for the likes of Jason Kopono and Anthony Parker and Calderon and Andrea Bargnani, and make Toronto a force in the Eastern Conference.

If you don’t think O’Neal has much left, the Raptors aren’t going to do much better next season than they have the previous two-going out early in the playoffs-even though Calderon is ready to take over the point full-time and Toronto has shooters that many other teams would love to have.

The guess here is that O’Neal isn’t the player he once was, but may not have to be playing alongside Olympian Bosh. And if Bargnani, the former first pick who took a noticeable and decided step backward in his second pro season, doesn’t get back on track, whatever O’Neal has to give won’t matter much anyway.

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Although this corner does not agree with a number of Mr. Aldridge’s specific assessments … this ↑↑↑ entry is a ruthless slap in the face for mis-guided Raptors faithful who may think their team’s acquisition of Jermaine O’Neal, in isolation, was amongst the most substantial moves made this off season across the NBA.

Unlike the Boston Celtics [28] , San Antonio Spurs [27], Cleveland Cavaliers [23], Phoenix Suns [22] and LA Lakers [21] … generally considered to be included in the top tier of teams in the NBA … the Toronto Raptors finished last season with a .500 record and have been eliminated swiftly from the playoffs each of the past two years.

Given the quality of moves made by other outfits in the Eastern Conference this summer, in relation to the Raptors, it is simply not a given that the Dinos are going to make the playoffs this season, and be able to maintain their present status as one of the up-and-coming teams in the NBA.