khandor’s sports blog

With last night’s 16th loss of the season …

Toronto Raptors 95
MIAMI HEAT 115
Game Summary

the most important question for the Toronto Raptors is:

Q1. Should this team, as constructed, be expected to improve substantially over the course of the next 55 games, or not?

A1. Well …

PART ONE

This is what the Eastern Conference standings look like today:

PART TWO

As of Fri Dec 11 2009, this is what the Strength Of Schedule [SOS] looked like for the teams in the East:

PART THREE

Looking at the injury situation for the Raptors and the other teams around them in the standings:

PART FOUR

For all practical intents and purposes:

PART FIVE

As has been said in this corner, since the 2009 NBA Draft took place …

when the Raptors chose not to trade down from the No. 9 position [overall], in an effort to re-invigorate their squad with:

* An additional NBA-calibre player obtained in a trade down

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, which could have been used to acquire an in-coming player like Brandon Jennings, or Terrence Williams, or Earl Clark, or Rodrigue Beaubois, or Taj Gibson

* The lower 1st Round pick they could have bought with their $3.0 M ‘draft voucher’ obtained in their trade with the Miami Heat, which they could have used to acquire a player like Taj Gibson, or DeJuan Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Sam Young, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

or

The upper 2nd Round pick they could have obtained in a trade down, if a lower 1st Round Pick was not available, with which they could have acquired an in-coming player like DeJaun Blair, or Derrick Brown, or Dante Cunningham, or Marcus Thornton, or Nando De Colo

and the decisons were made by Bryan Colangelo:

1 To not re-sign Shawn Marion for the dollar amount required to retain his services;

2 To not re-sign their own unrestricted free agents [i.e. Anthony Parker and Joey Graham];

3 To sign Jay Triano [then, interim head coach] to a 3-yr contract extension;

4 To complete the series of trades which then ensued with Orlando, Dallas, Golden State and Milwaukee, in effect, exchanging the following players on the team’s 2008-2009 roster with their corresponding counterparts [i.e. coded by colour] on the current version:

… that actually did little overall to substantially improve the Quality Depth on their team, despite what the fanbase was originally led to believe by the Raptors’ Management Team and assorted NBA “observers” who extolled the influx of supposed “talent” associated with these new additions to the roster …

this year’s Raptors team is no better than a number of other middle-of-the- pack outfits in the Eastern Conference and, in fact, should be expected to struggle to make the playoffs this season.

Those who thought/think that this edition of the Toronto Raptors has UNDER-ACHIEVED, to this point, this season …

were/are fundamentally INCORRECT.

This is precisely WHO and WHAT the Raptors are, and approximately WHERE the 2009-2010 version of their team SHOULD BE expected to finish this season, based on the personnel [i.e. players and coaches] on its roster.

Following last night’s deflating home loss to the Atlanta Hawks, the conference standings in the East look like this:

Prior to the 2009 NBA Draft, however, these were some of the players who were recommended in this space for the Toronto Raptors:

Terrence Williams [OG-SF, New Jersey, 1st Rd]
Earl Clark [SF-PF, Phoenix, 1st Rd]
Derrick Brown [SF-PF, Charlotte, 2nd Rd]
Taj Gibson [PF, Chicago, 1st Rd]
Dante Cunningham [PF, Portland, 2nd Rd]
Marcus Thornton [OG, New Orleans, via Miami, 2nd Rd]
Nando De Colo [OG-SF, San Antonio, 2nd Rd]

Prior to the 4-team trade that involved the Raptors, Magic, Mavericks and Grizzlies, it was also suggested here that Toronto should:

If the Raptors would have followed those recommendations, instead of:

culminating with a roster that looks like the middle column in the following chart:

————————————————————
 

 Loading ...

Yours truly thinks they would.

It’s by developing and then implementing a sound Basketball Philosophy … which emphasizes the importance of [I] Team Defense, [II] Rebounding, and [III] Shared Team Offense, in this order … maintaining general roster stability, from one season to the next, while acquiring Quality Depth, and obtaining the services of an experienced and successful NBA head coach, that the Raptors would be able to fundamentally alter the direction of their franchise and construct the type of championship-calibre organization which UFA’s like Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Dwyane Wade, and LeBron James, etc., would willingly CHOOSE to play for, if they have their druthers, either, this coming off season or further down-the-road.

Last season the Raptors finished 4th in the Atlantic Division and 13th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 33-49/402].

Offensively, they scored 99.0 Points Per Game [16th in the NBA].
Defensively, they allowed 101.9 Points Per Game [20th in the NBA].
In terms of Points Scored Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -2.9 [23rd in the NBA].  
In terms of Rebounding Differential, they finished with a Per Game mark of -1.5 [22nd in the NBA].

Thus far, this season, Toronto is:

* 2nd in the Atlantic Division and 10th, overall, in the Eastern Conference [i.e. 7-11/.389];

* 4th in Points Scored Per Game [104.9]

* 29th in Points Allowed Per Game [109.4]

* 23rd in Points Scored Differential Per Game [-4.4]

* 20th in Rebounding Differential Per Game [-0.4] 

How much is the roster really improved for the 2009-2010 Toronto Raptors, compared with the 2008-2009 version?

The main problem the Raptors have right now is rooted in the Basketball Philosophy of its Management Team which continues to place far too much emphasis on the Individual Offensive ability of specific players and not nearly enough emphasis on those same players’ Individual Defensive ability.

Until the Raptors add more multi-dimensional players to their roster with the ability to defend their position[s] effectively AND reward those players with additional playing time during important parts of games, Toronto will continue to be little more than a high scoring [entertaining?] Treadmill Team.

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando - High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland - High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston - High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington - Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte - Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee - Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York - Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey - Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: 

the picture produced is somewhat different.

Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:

* MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];

* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,

* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].

An accurate understanding of what exactly is going on these days in Raptorville is not arrived at easily for many of the team’s rabid fans who are active participants in the on-line hoops community. Amidst the general euphoria that has taken hold in the aftermath of last week’s seemingly stunning 4-team trade extravaganza with Dallas, Orlando and Memphis … which netted the Raptors:

* Hedo Turkoglu [F, Orlando, UFA]
* Antoine Wright [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season]
* Devean George [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season], and
* Preserved their right to use the Mid Level Exception [MLE], the Low Level Exception [LLE], and exercise their [Larry] Bird Rights towards resigning their own Unrestricted Free Agents [UFA]

at the expense of:

* Shawn Marion [Sign & Trade with Orlando, UFA]
* Kris Humphries [trade with Dallas; injured much of last season]
* Nathan Jawai [trade with Dallas; disabled much of last season]
* 2nd Round Draft Pick/2016 [trade with Dallas]
* Cash Considerations [trade with Dallas] 

The stark reality of this team’s current situation is perhaps best reflected in the bright lights of the following 5 observations:

PART ONE
The post-trade outlook for the Raptors which was first put together by “Dave” [nbaroundtable, Thu July 9], extolling the possible virtues:

Where do the Raptors go from here?

PART TWO
The specific comment which “Dave” then left in a different thread on his blog, later that same afternoon, indicating his actual thoughts on their chances to succeed with their current roster configuration:

———-

Four team trade: Shawn Marion to Dallas
2011/12

This is the Raptors fail safe option. When they fail, and they will fail, they need to have this option open to them and then use this option.

This means no extra contracts that last beyond two years. I will dislike pretty much any contract that goes beyond two seasons. As long as the contract is than two seasons, spending that money doesn’t bother me in the slightest.

Dead End

The Raptors are going nowhere, and they need a miracle to happen for this plan to have any chance of working out. The Raptors are going to run into [sic] dead end.

Now, it’s time just to sit back and let things play out. Things will not improve until Colangelo figures out Bargnani isn’t a cornerstone of this franchise … until that happens, there’s nothing else that can be done to put the Raptors on the right road.

The Raptors can’t get out of the corner that they’ve boxed themselves into, until Bargnani is moved on. Any aspirations for a title are on hold until this happens.

———-  

PART THREE
The specific comment which was made on this blog [July 11, 11:35 AM], by yours truly, that addressed the supposed “Qualitative Improvement” of the Raptors current roster pieces in comparison with last season’s end-of-year squad, pertaining to the question of:

———-

Which team made out best from 4-team trade?
IMO, the Raptors have made upgrades in certain areas thus far but it would be a mistake in judgment to assess this improvement as being “a lot better“, just yet:

No BEFORE ADV AFTER

1 Calderon = Calderon
2 Parker <– Wright … AP is significantly better
3 Marion = Turkoglu … Turkoglu is NOT significantly better
4 Bosh = Bosh
5 Bargnani = Bargnani
—————————-
6 Ukic = Ukic
7 Kapono –> DeRozan * … cyclical due to draft
8 Graham = George … Devean is NOT significantly better
9 Humphries = Evans … Reggie is NOT significantly better
10 O’Bryant –> Nesterovic … Rasho is much better!
—————————-
11 Douby = Delfino … is different but NOT much better
12 Mensah-Bonsu = Mensah-Bonsu
—————————-
13 Banks = Banks
14 Jawai ? Barnes … jury still out on Nathan
15 Voskuhl = O’Bryant

Those who are looking at these changes in an excessively positive light are the ones looking through rose-coloured spectacles.

———-

PART FOUR
The Shifting Player Personnel Chart that was constructed by yours truly yesterday:

which shows the drastic player changes that have happened with the Raptors for each of the past two seasons. 

PART FIVE
The glaring RED ALERT that was issued on Sunday by David Berri [i.e. noted economist, NBA "sage & soothsayer", author of The Wages of Wins Journal]:

Dashing Hope in Toronto
Not a Pretty Picture in Toronto

When we put the whole picture together, it appears the Raptors will employ the following starting line-up in 2009-10: Calderon (PG), Wright and/or DeRozan (SG), Turkoglu (SF), Bosh (PF), Bargnani [C].  Last season the NBA veterans in this line-up combined to produce fewer than 30 wins. So unless these players improve dramatically, or the team finds very productive players off the bench, it’s hard to see how this team improves dramatically.  And that’s true even if Delfino returns to Toronto (although if Evans returns to what we saw in the past there might be some hope this team can get past 40 wins).

All of this means that

1. Turkoglu will be seeing much more money in 2009-10, but probably far fewer wins.
2. Bargnani will also see much more money, but it seems unlikely he is ever going to produce many wins.
3. Bosh will see even more money after this next season, but if the Raptors don’t approach 45 or 50 wins (which seems likely) then it seems unlikely that the money Bosh is paid in the future is going to be paid by the Raptors.
4. So it looks likely the Raptors record performance in 2007-08 will stand for awhile.  In other words, if Bosh departs this team in 2010, then rebuilding will probably continue beyond 2009-10.
5. And this means — assuming the Raptors don’t make any major change to this team — the fans of the Raptors will keep paying money to see a team that’s not contending for a title.

———-

Experience says that when disparate individuals like:

1. “Dave” [nbaroundtable] … who combines statistics with Basketball Acumen;

2. khandor [that's me ] … who relies primarily on Basketball Acumen;

and,

3. David Berri … who relies heavily on a statistical approach to the analysis of on-court production for players in the NBA;

actually arrive at a similar conclusion … which is essentially opposed to the GENERAL CONSENSUS that exists in Raptorville today … it portends of difficult times ahead for this team in the coming season.

In the best interests of the franchise, let’s hope that all three of these “stray birds” are eventually proven to be wrong in their assessment of the team. 

Prior to the recent transaction between the Raptors [Bryan Colangelo], Mavericks [Donnie Nelson], Magic [Otis Smith & Dave Twardzik] and Grizzlies [Chris Wallace], this is what each of those team’s rosters looked like:

Coming out the other side, today, this is what they look like now, respectively:

Legend:
UFA - Unrestricted Free Agent; RFA - Restricted Free Agent; R - Rookie Player; TPE - Traded Player Exception; DP - Draft Pick; CC - Cash Considerations

—————————————————

 Loading ...

—————————————————

The Perspective From This Corner

The fact is, however, that the Cleveland Cavaliers [Danny Ferry] MAY have benefitted most of all from this specific transaction, as they subsequently gained unfettered access to Anthony Parker, the exact sort of complementary wing player they were searching for … to augment LeBron James & Co., in an effort to win their 1st NBA Championship. 

Your feedback is welcome in the “Comments” section.