khandor’s sports blog

Yet another reason to like the job which Otis Smith [GM] has done, thus far?

NBA Countdown: No. 8 Orlando Magic
Reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 14 years and second in franchise history was a wonderful accomplishment for the Orlando Magic-but there was no guarantee a championship would follow.The Magic will go into the 2009-10 season determined to defend their Eastern Conference title but looking different than when they won it. Yes, they still have All-Star center Dwight Howard as their foundation and high-priced Rashard Lewis (who’s suspended the first 10 games of the season after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level) shooting 3-pointers, but the Magic changed their late-game, go-to guy by switching from Turkoglu to Carter.

It’s why general manager Otis Smith didn’t take any bows, or even take the time to catch his breath.

And it’s also why he made one of the boldest moves of the summer, changing his carefully crafted team chemistry by trading for All-Star Vince Carter and letting go of free agent Hedo Turkoglu, a key player in Orlando’s recent rise.

“You can’t stand still in this league,” Smith said. “If you do, you’ll be going backward.”

The Magic also added free agents in power forward Brandon Bass from Dallas and small forward Matt Barnes of Phoenix. They even added point guard Jason Williams, who last played during 2007-08 with the Heat. Surprisingly, they kept backup center Marcin Gortat by matching the offer sheet Dallas gave him.

With the Celtics adding Rasheed Wallace and the Cavaliers trading for Shaquille O’Neal, the Magic tried to keep pace with the other serious contenders in the East.

“There are less than seven teams every year that really are trying to win a championship in our league,” Smith said. “Those three (in the East) are trying to win now, as opposed to saying ‘We’re OK where we are. Let’s stay the status quo.’”

———————————–

Otis Smith was hired by the Magic on May 6, 2006.

This is what the team’s roster looked like on that day:

Augmon, Stacey F
Battie, Tony PF-C
Cato, Kelvin C
Diener, Travis PG
Dooling, Keyon G
Francis, Steve G
Garrity, Pat PF
Hill, Grant G-F
Howard, Dwight C
Kasun, Mario C
Morris, Terence PF
Nelson, Jameer PG
Outlaw, Bo PF
Stevenson, DeShawn G
Turkoglu, Hedo F

This is what it looks like today, 41 months later:

Almond, Morris G
Anderson, Ryan PF
Barnes, Matt F
Bass, Brandon PF
Carter, Vince G-F
Foyle, Adonal C
Gortat, Marcin C
Howard, Dwight C
Johnson, Anthony PG
Johnson, Linton F
Lewis, Rashard F
Nelson, Jameer PG
Pietrus, Mickael G-F
Redick, JJ G
Williams, Jason PG

This is Orlando’s record of performance, since that date:

2008-2009
59-23/.720, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, NBA Finalist 
2007-2008
52-30/.634, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 2nd Rd
2006-2007
40-42/.488, 3rd Atlantic, 8th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

This was their record of performance the season before Smith arrived:

2005-2006
36-46/.439, 3rd Atlantic, 10th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

3 full seasons into his tenure with the Magic, Otis Smith should be considered as one of the best GM’s in the NBA.

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By way of comparison, for the benefit of Raptors fans, this is what Toronto has accomplished under the direction of Bryan Colangelo [2-time NBA EOTY award recipient] during this same time-frame:

2005-2006 Roster [Feb 28 2006]
Araujo, Rafael PF
Bonner, Matt PF
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
Davis, Antonio PF-C
Graham, Joey F
James, Mike PG
Martin, Darrick PG
Peterson, Morris G-F
Sow, Pape PF
Villanueva, Charlie F
Williams, Eric G-F
Woods, Loren C

2009-2010, Current Roster
Banks, Marcus G
Bargnani, Andrea C
Belinelli, Marco G-F
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
DeRozan, Demar G-F
Douby, Quincy G
Evans, Reggie PF
Jack, Jarrett G
Johnson, Amir PF
Nesterovic, Rasho PF-C
O’Bryant, Patrick C
Turkoglu, Hedo F
Weems, Sonny G-F
Wright, Antoine G-F

Year #1-3
2008-2009
33-49/.402, 4th Atlantic, 13th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs
2007-2008
41-41/.500, 2nd Atlantic, 6th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd
2006-2007
47-35/.573, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

Year Prior
2005-2006
27-55/.329, 4th Atlantic, 1st Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

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In the NBA, the cold harsh reality is that there are only 2 distinct tiers of teams:

Tier 1
Those few that are actually trying to win the League Championship.

Tier 2
Everybody else.

Much R.E.S.P.E.C.T. to Otis Smith for “cutting to the chase” and improving the Orlando Magic each season, thus far.

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re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 5 – @ New Orleans [Fri Nov 06]

Q1. What’s the reason Chris Bosh should be playing Center for the Raptors rather than Power Foward?

A1. Difficult individual match-ups like this vs David West [PF].

Instead of being able to use his significant quickness advantage against an upright player like Emeka Okafor [C], Bosh is forced to bang with one of the best scoring under-sized PF’s in the league. CP3’s combination of quickness and strength makes him a difficult check for Jose Calderon. Very seldom will a rookie [i.e. DeRozan] outperform an established player like Peja Stojakovic, especially, in a road game. Byron Scott is a first rate head coach.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 2-3

Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: 

the picture produced is somewhat different.

Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:

* MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];

* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,

* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].

At what point are the Toronto Raptors going to wake up, smell the coffee and return CHRIS BOSH, their best player [by far], to his “natural” position for their team?

What is Chris Bosh’s “natural” position? 

Chris Bosh is a stalwart Center … and, one of the very best in the NBA, today.

Two seasons ago, the Raptors won 47 games [.573], finished 3rd in the Eastern Conference, and captured their only Atlantic Division crown.

For that team, Chris Bosh [in his 4th season] played the Center position, almost exclusively … in terms of Offense, Defense and Rebounding responsibilities … alongside an under-sized but physically strong, and smart, and highly skilful veteran player like Jorge Garbajosa [PF], as his principal side-kick, in conjunction with a solid Point Guard tandem of TJ Ford [who SHOULD have properly been the Back-up] and Jose Calderon [who SHOULD have properly been the Starter].

Unfortunately for the Raptors, and their loyal fanbase, beginning with the 2007-2008 season, the team then made the decision to shift Chris Bosh from the Center position to the Power Forward spot … primarily, to better accommodate Andrea Bargnani, 7-0, 250 [2006, No. 1, overall, Draft Pick].

What’s followed, since then, have been two seasons of precipitous descent:

2007-2008
41-41/.500, 6th place in the Eastern Conference

2008-2009
33-49/.402, Missed the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference

which have seen the Raptors give increased playing time to Andrea Bargnani, first, at the Power Forward position [i.e. 2007-2008] and then, principally, at the Center position [i.e. 2008-2009], while decreasing Chris Bosh’s actual playing time at that specific spot, in the process.

What do the Raptors need most to re-ignite the engine at the heart of their seemingly sinking ship?

Improve the Leadership on their team?
Improve their Defense & Rebounding?
Increase their Toughness Quotient?
Improve their Quality Depth?

Use Chris Bosh as THE Center for their team …

and, then, build the rest of their squad, accordingly, upon:

I. THAT foundation;

in conjunction with,

II. A solid PG tandem [i.e. Calderon + a solid, pass-first, defensive oriented, veteran Back-up];

and,

III. An under-sized, physically strong, and smart, and highly skilful veteran Power Forward [i.e. similar to Jorge Garbajosa];

at which point they will then be ready to add two dynamic Wing Players, who can:

IV. ONE - Knock down open shots & score the ball by creating his own individual offense off the dribble;

and,

V. TWO - Check the opponent’s best Wing Player, on a game-to-game basis.

———-

How can the Raptors use their available resources to accomplish this feat?

Step 1. Trade out of the #9 spot in the upcoming NBA Draft.

Acquiring a Lower 1st Round Draft Pick, plus either a 2nd Round Selection, or an additional highly serviceable player can add at least TWO solid pieces to the current roster … which is sorely lacking Quality Depth.  

Step 2. Trade Andrea Bargnani.

When a team already has a player like Chris Bosh [C] and it drafts a player like Andrea Bargnani [C], with the No. 1 [overall] Selection … it SHOULD NOT be with the intent of holding onto this 2nd center for an extended period of time BUT with the intent of TRADING that player in exchange for other assets which are a better fit to go with the Franchise Player already in the fold. The reason the Raptors have plummeted in the EC standings is NOT because of Chris Bosh; it’s because the team has refused to part with Andrea Bargnani, at least, up to this point.

Step 3. Trade Jason Kapono.

When a team signs a high-priced Unrestricted Free Agent and that player then fails to deliver the goods … the team needs to cut its losses, ASAP, not hold onto this player for an extended period of time. Albatrosses will not help you to win a championship in this league.

Step 4. Sign & Trade Shawn Marion.

When a middle-of-the-pack team acquires a high-priced veteran player in a trade-deadline deal and this player wants to sign a big-money contract extension, but is no longer perceived to be a cost-effective player, at this stage of his career, at his Expected Salary Level, then he needs to be flipped in exchange for younger more cost-effective assets and NOT re-signed. 

Executing a series of co-ordinated personnel moves like this can add a number of high calibre players to the Raptors’ roster and extricate the team from the “treadmill” situation it finds itself in today.

Yes, it’s far from being Rocket Science but … in order to succeed in this League, in a MAJOR Way … the people responsible for the operation of a club actually DO NEED TO KNOW WHAT THEY’RE DOING, when it comes to assembling a championship calibre squad with the resources at-hand.

If they fail to assess the specific Strengths & Weaknesses of their own players accurately, they will simply be spinning their wheels, as an organization, in terms of ever being able TO WIN the NBA Championship.  

Understanding the demise of the Toronto Raptors, since the end of the 2006-2007 season to where the team stands today, means starting with a simple review of their personnel, Then vs Now:  

Then

47-35/.573
1st place, Atlantic Division
1st Round Playoff Loss
General Manager - Bryan Colangelo
Head Coach - Sam Mitchell 
Main Players - TJ Ford/PG, Anthony Parker/OG, Morris Peterson/SF, Jorge Garbajosa/PF & Chris Bosh/C
Support Players - Jose Calderon, Darrick Martin, Juan Dixon, Joey Graham, Andrea Bargnani, Kris Humphries & Rasho Nesterovic,

Now

33-49/.402
4th place, Atlantic Division
Failed to qualify for the Playoffs
General Manager - Bryan Colangelo
Head Coach - Jay Triano 
Main Players - Jose Calderon/PG, Anthony Parker/OG, Shawn Marion/SF, Chris Bosh/PF & Andrea Bargnani/C
Support Players - Roko Ukic, Marcus Banks, Quincy Douby, Jason Kapono, Joey Graham, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Kris Humphries, Nathan Jawai, Jake Voskuhl & Patrick O’Bryant

Italics - “New” Personnel

If you compare the two teams individual-by-individual, this is what you should be able to see:

Those who think that the current version of the Raptors is somehow lacking “Leadership” from Chris Bosh & Jose Calderon, or that CB4 is somehow NOT worthy of consideration as a legit “Franchise Player” in the NBA, or that El Matador is somehow “Too Conservative With The Ball & NOT Dynamic Enough”, as a main-frame PG, etc., to form The Core of a contending team in the Eastern Conference are displaying an overall lack of Basketball Acumen, when it comes to Understanding How Exactly the NBA Game Works.

Instead of BUILDING UP the remainder of the team’s personnel AROUND Chris Bosh [C] and Jose Calderon [PG], since the end of the 2006-2007 season, what Bryan Colangelo has done is DECREASED/LOWERED the actual Ability Level & Functionality of the other key pieces to the Raptors puzzle.

Until the Raptors re-stock their barren shelves with Additional Players to provide them with INCREASED Ability Level & Functionality, in terms of QALITY DEPTH, overall, they will remain a Treadmill Team, in the Salary Cap-driven NBA. 

———-

Q1. How many of the current Raptors would rank in the top half of all the players in the League at their respective positions?

A1. Excluding Chris Bosh [C] & Jose Calderon [PG] … very few, if any.

FINAL SCORE: RAPTORS 98, Wizards 100
Complete Game Info

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The Wizards’ [15th place, 19-61/.238] immediate future is so much brighter, in comparison with the Raptors’ [14th place, 30-49/.380], that it’s not even funny.

STARTERS
Arenas vs Calderon
Young vs Parker [past his prime]
Butler vs Marion [past his prime]
Jamison vs Bosh [playing out of position]
Haywood vs Bargnani [not a dominating Center]

KEY SUBS
Crittenton vs Ukic [not yet ready for the NBA]
Stevenson vs Kapono [an albatross]
McGuire vs Graham
Songaila vs Humphries
Blatche vs O’Bryant [not an NBA-level player]

EXTRAS
James vs Banks [not an NBA-level player; an albatross]
Dixon vs Douby [not an NBA-level player]
McGee vs Jawai [not an NBA-level player]
Pecherov vs Voskuhl [not an NBA-level player]
Thomas vs ?

UPCOMING DRAFT PICK
No. 1-3 [overall] Selection vs No. 8-9 Selection [if not traded again]

Thinking back to where the Raptors’ player roster was in Jan-Feb/06, before Bryan Colangelo [Pres/GM] was hired, and comparing it to the current one:

Raptors Roster 2005-2006

27 - 55 .329 (pythagorean: 31 - 51 .382)

Name G Min Pts PPG FGM FGA FGP FTM FTA FTP 3PM 3PA 3PP REB RPG AST APG STL BLK TO
Chris Bosh 70 2753 1572 22.5 549 1087 .505 474 581 .816 0 13 .000 647 9.2 181 2.6 50 79 157
Mike James 79 2922 1604 20.3 576 1228 .469 283 338 .837 169 382 .442 262 3.3 460 5.8 72 3 206
Morris Peterson 82 3139 1374 16.8 478 1096 .436 241 294 .820 177 448 .395 381 4.6 190 2.3 104 15 126
Charlie Villanueva 81 2364 1053 13.0 435 940 .463 113 160 .706 70 214 .327 521 6.4 88 1.1 60 63 99
Jalen Rose 46 1238 557 12.1 180 446 .404 166 217 .765 31 115 .270 129 2.8 113 2.5 20 10 65
Matt Bonner 78 1711 583 7.5 209 467 .448 63 76 .829 102 243 .420 284 3.6 56 0.7 49 31 32
Joey Graham 80 1579 533 6.7 198 414 .478 108 133 .812 29 87 .333 244 3.1 60 0.8 37 13 92
Jose Calderon 64 1485 349 5.5 132 312 .423 78 92 .848 7 43 .163 141 2.2 288 4.5 42 4 101
Andre Barrett 17 261 78 4.6 35 97 .361 6 9 .667 2 13 .154 22 1.3 50 2.9 10 0 14
Antonio Davis 8 191 35 4.4 14 31 .452 7 20 .350 0 0 .000 36 4.5 7 0.9 3 1 8
Pape Sow 42 591 147 3.5 53 123 .431 41 57 .719 0 0 .000 146 3.5 8 0.2 21 19 30
Eric Williams 28 356 91 3.3 29 75 .387 28 38 .737 5 18 .278 50 1.8 15 0.5 7 2 15
Darrick Martin 40 340 102 2.6 34 97 .351 18 24 .750 16 40 .400 20 0.5 57 1.4 17 0 15
Rafael Araujo 53 618 125 2.4 55 152 .362 15 28 .536 0 2 .000 145 2.7 21 0.4 25 6 42
Loren Woods 27 324 62 2.3 28 59 .475 6 14 .429 0 1 .000 110 4.1 4 0.1 9 23 16
Aaron Williams 14 99 25 1.8 10 19 .526 5 6 .833 0 0 .000 15 1.1 1 0.1 4 3 5
Alvin Williams 1 10 1 1.0 0 3 .000 1 2 .500 0 2 .000 3 3.0 0 0.0 0 0 0
2006 No. 1 [overall], 1st Round Draft Pick
2006 No. 5 [overall], 2nd Round Draft Pick

is enough to put tears in the eyes of someone who really knows how to go about building a championship calibre NBA franchise, given the assets at their disposal 3 seasons ago.

———-

Where exactly each of these teams go from here will be determined by their respective General Managers, one of whom is already a 2-time NBA Executive Of the Year Award winner … the other of whom has yet to be recognized by his peers in this way [i.e. Ernie Grunfeld].

If the actual wager was …

Which one’s team is going to finish with more WINS during the 2009-2010 season AND go further in the NBA Playoffs?

on whom would YOU be willing to bet a sizable portion of YOUR own hard-earned money?

Q1. When was the last time you saw Manu Ginobili look & act like this?

A1. During the 2006 playoffs vs the Dallas Mavericks.

———————————–

Unless Gregg Popovich & Co. finally figures out that the Bruce Bowen vs Chris Paul match-up is NOT the way San Antonio SHOULD be playing this series … and creates the Tony Parker vs Chris Paul match-up, instead … the Spurs are going to be in serious of jeopardy of not getting past the Hornets in the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Going with the Bowen-B vs Paul match-up unnecessarily is the same sort of ‘poor’ coaching decision that cost the Spurs dearly 2 years ago in their series vs the Mavericks … where Pop insanely tried to ‘go small’ against Dallas rather than rely on San Antonio’s tried & true Inside Finesse & Power Game (in their customary 3 out/2 in Offensive Attack alignment).

Over the years, Gregg Popovich has shown a tendency to excel when he’s got the better of the two teams in a contentious series … but, as well, to NOT necessarily make the correct adjustments in a series when he finds himself facing an opponent with more basketball talent than the Spurs have at the moment across the board.

Secondly … IF the Spurs would only realize that this is the rotation which they need to be using this series vs the Hornets …

STARTERS:
PG - Parker v Paul
OG - Barry v Peja
SF - Ginobili v Peterson
PF - Thomas v West
C - Duncan v Chandler

BENCH:
PG - Vaughn v Pargo
OG/SF - Bowen-B & Finley v Wells & Wright
PF/C - Oberto & Horry v Ely & Bowen-R

so that they can High-Low the Hornets to Death …

then San Antonio will still be able to get by New Orleans in either 6 or 7 games.

On the other hand, however, if Pop keeps overplaying Tony Parker and inserting Mr. Udoka into the game when he shouldn’t be (e.g. vs West or Peja or Wells) … the Spurs quest for back-to-back championships will be over quicker than you can say, Happy Chris Paul Blog Day.

* Steve Buffery, Toronto Sun, Boo MoPete? Sam says he deserves standing ovation

“I hope so, because he deserves it,” said Mitchell, when asked if he expects a nice ovation for Peterson tonight. “Mo played hard here.”

“He did a lot of things for the organization,” Bosh said. “He was fan favourite and I think a lot of people will be really excited to see him play.”

“MoPete is one of my favourite people,” Mitchell said.

“Mo is one of my favourite players. He was with me when I first got here, we went through a lot of tough times together. I felt like Mo was one of the guys in that locker room who was on my side. He supported me. I couldn’t always give him what he wanted, but I had the utmost respect for Mo, and I think Mo had the same for me. And I’m glad that he’s with a good coach (Byron Scott), a good organization and with a good team. I’m happy for Mo. And I hope they do well except for when they play us.”

One of the all-time great quotes from Sam Mitchell.

Kudos to Morris Peterson … and the man who played him major minutes for the first time in his career 2 seasons ago, during Toronto’s terrible 27-55 season, in the aftermath of Vince Carter’s departure … showing everyone who understands the NBA game just how good MoPete can be in this League, if afforded the opportunity to work everyday as a glue-2 in the NBA.