Right move for the Raptors, right now
Friday, February 5th, 2010Toronto is currently in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division, and in 5th place [overall] in the Eastern Conference standings, with a 26-23/.531 W-L record.
After starting out 7-13/.350, with a difficult road-heavy schedule, the Raptors have since played 19-10/.655 basketball, with an easier predominently home-based schedule, that has effectively balanced out their season to-date.
If the Raptors can now manage to play .531 basketball for the remainder of the campaign they will finish with an overall mark of 43-39, or 44-38, which should then be good enough to qualify for the Eastern Conference playoffs and earn a mid-level seed [i.e. #5 or #6].
In a 1st Round playoff series of this type the Raptors would then be most likely to face one of:
1. The Atlanta Hawks/#4, who were eliminated by the Cleveland Cavaliers [i.e. 2006-2007 NBA Finalists] last season [in the 2nd Round] and the Boston Celtics 2 seasons ago [in Game 7 of the 1st Round];
2. The Boston Celtics/#3, who were 2007-2008 NBA Champions; or,
3. The Orlando Magic/#2, who were 2008-2009 NBA Finalists;
each of which is a team with more experience than Toronto, having qualified for the post-season elimination tournament for the last two seasons.
If the Raptors are indeed able to compete successfully in this type of series … by winning at least 2 [or, possibly, 3] games … the challenge they would then face, in the off season, is trying to re-sign their best player, Chris Bosh, who is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent this summer [July 1, 2010].
The NBA’s in-season trade deadline is now two weeks away [Feb 19], and the most important question on the minds of Raptors fans is:
QUESTION
Should Toronto make a trade, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to further improve their team right now, in hopes of being able to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring and, in the process, demonstrate to Chris Bosh that he will have a legitimate chance to compete for a league championship, in the immediate future, if he decides to renew his contract with the Raptors this off season, as a maximum salaried player?
ANSWER
No, the Raptors should not make a trade of this sort, in advance of the deadline, in an effort to win their 1st Round playoff series this spring.
RATIONALE
Young teams like the Raptors need to be able to grow together, gradually, over an extended period of years, which involves taking 5 DISTINCT STEPS:
STEP 1. Learning how to make the playoffs, and then losing a 1st Round series;
STEP 2. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, advancing to the 2nd Round;
STEP 3. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making a key player acquisition, advancing to the Conference Finals;
STEP 4. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making another key player acquisition, advancing to the NBA Finals; and,
STEP 5. Learning how to make the playoffs and, then, after making minor player acquisitions, winning the NBA Championship.
The Raptors’ current roster looks like this:
|
ROLE |
PG |
OG |
SF |
PF |
C |
|
Starter |
Jack |
DeRozan |
Turkoglu |
Bosh |
Bargnani |
|
Key Subs |
Calderon |
Belinelli |
Wright |
Johnson |
Nesterovic |
|
Reserves |
|
Weems |
Evans |
|
|
|
Extras/Out |
Banks |
|
|
|
O’Bryant |
and is ”good enough”, as is, to compete successfully in a 1st Round playoff series this spring, if their GM and head coach can [i] create the proper atmosphere around their team, and [ii] use their resources effectively.
|
RESOURCE |
SERVICEABILITY |
|
Bosh |
- One of the best young All-around Big Men in the NBA - Multi-faceted: Strong Rebounder; Strong Team Defender; and, Efficient Scorer … with Good character |
|
Bargnani |
- One of the best young Scoring Big Men in the NBA - Scorer’s mentality … fearless |
|
DeRozan |
- Young, athletic Wing player - Scorer’s mentality … needs added strength and crunch time PT - Significant “upside” |
|
Johnson |
- Young, athletic Big Man - High energy Rebounder/Defender’s mentality - Significant “upside” |
|
Calderon |
- Ultra efficient Point Guard: High % perimeter shooter; Outstanding Ast:TO - Emotionally Stabile and Unselfish |
|
Turkoglu |
- Veteran All-around Wing player - Clutch scorer/shooter … fearless |
|
Jack |
- Still youngish, All-around Point Guard |
|
Belinelli |
- Still youngish, scorer/perimeter shooter |
|
Weems |
- Young, athletic rebounder/defender/slasher/mid-range scorer |
|
Nesterovic |
- Veteran Big Men; strong interior defender |
|
Wright |
- Veteran Wing player; adequate perimeter defender |
|
Evans |
- Veteran Big Man; strong rebounder with good toughness |
|
Banks |
- Veteran back-up Point Guard |
|
O’Bryant |
- Still youngish back-up Center |
Stability is what the Raptors need most right now … and, to be able to find out exactly what they’ve got from their current group of players, when it comes to being battle-tested in a 1st Round playoff series against a veteran team like the Hawks, or the Celtics, or the Magic.
What the Raptors do not need right now is increased Instability … in hopes of blithely skipping over Step 1 with this specific collection of players.
If Chris Bosh is actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.
If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to resign with Toronto, the Raptors will then be in a “good” position to attempt to take Step 2 next year, after making minor player acquisitions during this coming off season.
3. If Chris Bosh is not actually the Right Person to lead the Raptors team into the future, then, he will decide on his own that Toronto is not the best fit for him, and his long term goals/objectives, both, as a marquee player in the NBA, and as a person.
If Chris Bosh eventually makes the decision to sign with another team, then, the Raptors will still be in an “okay” position … i.e. with his vacant salary slot … to once again try to accomplish Step 1, in the gradual process of building a legitimate contending team in this league, over a number of years.
The major problem with this specific scenario is that this is precisely where the team has been before, on more than one occasion, during the Raptors’ first 15 years of existence:
A. With Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady;
B. With Vince Carter and Chris Bosh;
C. With Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani;
and, subsequently,
D. With Andrea Bargnani and DeMar DeRozan; etc., etc., etc.
Each time the Raptors have gotten to this same point before …
they have somehow managed to !@#$%^&* it up, royally, by trying to ”Swing for the fences”, prematurely, and in hopes of skipping Steps along the way.
Hopefully they [i.e. MLSE, Bryan Colangelo, and Jay Triano] have finally learned their lesson and, this time, are finally able to exercise the type of sound basketball judgment it takes to eventually build a legitimate NBA championship contending team in Toronto.
——————————
For the Raptors …
It is time to batten down the hatches.
Let the current season play out.
Allow Chris Bosh to make his own call.
And, sail the ship forward, regardless, on a straight [and well-charted] course.
In this world, it takes time, to build something truly worthwhile.

nch
märk
)

