If you caught a glimpse of Saturday evening’s Game 3, between Atlanta/#3 and Milwaukee/#6, what you should have been able to observe was tangible evidence that:
Atlanta Hawks 89
MILWAUKEE BUCKS 107 Complete Game Info, Hawks lead series 2-1
1. The Bucks have the right combination of individual pieces - i.e. physically under-sized but strong and athletic - to give the Hawks heaps of trouble … when playing at home … despite the absence of Andrew Bogut/C;
2. Atlanta is sufferring from some sort of internal strife, at present, which is affecting the performances of Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Mike Bibby … each of whom gave far less than the “proper degree of team-focused individual effort” required to win a road playoff game against an inspired opponent;
and,
3. This is going to be a long series.
Watch the video highlights.
Focus on the effort levels, defensive execution, and the body language of Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Mike Bibby.
Pay close attention to the “relative quickness” for each player in the following individual match-ups between:
C - Al Horford vs Kurt Thomas
PF - Josh Smith vs Luc Richard Mbah A Moute/Ersan Ilyasova
SF - Marvin Williams vs John Salmons/Carlos Delfino
OG - Joe Johnson vs Carlos Delfino/John Salmons
PG - Mike Bibby vs Brandon Jennings/Luke Ridnour
==============================
G - Jamal Crawford vs Jerry Stackhouse
F - Maurice Evans vs Salmons/Delfino/Luc Richard Mbah A Moute
PF/C - Zaza Pachulia vs Dan Gadzuric
==============================
PG - Jeff Teague vs Luke Ridnour
—————————————————
The current wagering line for this evening’s Game 4 is:
Atlanta -2/-106 [-131]
MILWAUKEE +2/-104 [+119]
For regular readers of this space …
Know that you will probably not see a better “investment opportunity” for the balance of the 1st Round of the playoffs than the Bucks +2/-104, this evening.
If you choose to hop on board, hopefully, you’ll be able to enjoy the ride!
LEGEND: W – Wins; L - Losses; Win% - Winning Percentage; PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR – Quality Rating [i.e. PDR + PAR + RDR = QR]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [i.e. QR/#1-30]; * - Clinched playoff position.
there are now 10 teams left with a legitimate opportunity to win this year’s league championship … none of which are the Mavericks [W2], Suns [W3], Nuggets [W4], Celtics [E4], Bucks [E6] or Bulls [E8], according to the recent history of the NBA.
With a little more than 1 week left in the regular season schedule …
LEGITIMATE CONTENDERS TO WIN THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP
[as of Monday April 5, 2010]
TEAM
W
L
W%
EAST
WEST
PDR
PAR
RDR
QR
QIR
Cavaliers *
60
17
.779
1
1
5
2
8
1
Magic *
54
23
.701
2
2
4
4
10
2
Spurs *
47
29
.618
7
4
7
4
15
3
Jazz *
50
27
.649
4
3
12
6
21
T-4
Lakers *
55
22
.714
1
5
9
7
21
T-4
Blazers *
47
30
.610
8
11
3
8
22
6
Thunder *
48
28
.623
6
10
10
3
23
7
Heat
43
34
.558
5
12
2
10
24
8
Bobcats
40
36
.528
7
15
1
11
31
9
Hawks *
49
27
.645
3
6
10
18
34
10
Bucks
42
34
.553
6
14
8
17
39
11
Celtics *
48
28
.632
4
9
6
25
40
T-12
Grizzlies
39
37
.513
16
23
1
40
T-12
Bulls
37
39
.487
9
19
14
9
42
14
Nuggets *
50
27
.649
3
8
20
20
48
15
Suns *
50
27
.649
5
7
28
14
49
16
Mavericks *
50
27
.649
2
13
15
24
52
T-17
Pistons
23
53
.303
27
13
12
52
T-17
76ers
26
50
.342
24
17
16
57
19
Rockets
38
38
.500
17
21
22
60
T-20
Clippers
27
50
.351
28
19
13
60
T-20
Kings
24
53
.312
25
25
15
65
T-22
Wizards
23
53
.303
26
16
23
65
T-22
Raptors
38
38
.500
8
18
27
21
66
24
Hornets
35
43
.449
20
22
26
68
25
Pacers
29
48
.377
21
24
28
73
T-26
Nets
11
66
.143
29
17
27
73
T-26
Knicks
27
49
.355
22
26
29
77
28
Timberwolves
15
62
.195
30
29
19
78
29
Warriors
23
53
.303
23
30
30
83
30
LEGEND: W – Wins; L - Losses; Win% - Winning Percentage; PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR – Quality Rating [i.e. PDR + PAR + RDR = QR]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [i.e. QR/#1-30]; * - Clinched playoff position.
there are 10 teams with a legitimate opportunity to win this year’s league championship … none of which are the Mavericks, Nuggets, Suns, Celtics, Bucks, Raptors or Bulls.
As was indicated yesterday, in this space, just might be the case today, if the Raptors were to make a series of mistakes in judgment against a much-improved group of Sacramento Kings [22-43] last night …
This is what the current standings look like in the Eastern Conference:
following Toronto’s loss and the wins by Charlotte [at Philadelphia] and Miami [vs the LA Clippers].
If the rest of the regular season schedule should, in fact, play out in a way that approximates the following results for each of these 5 contending teams:
Place
No. 5
No. 6
No. 7
No. 8
No. 9
Team
MIL
TOR
CHA
MIA
CHI
W-L
34-29
32-31
32-31
33-32
31-32
%
.540
.508
.508
.508
.492
G 63
-
-
-
-
-
G 64
vs UTA,W
@ GSW,W
vs LAC,W
-
@ ORL,L
G 65
vs IND,W
@ POR,L
@ ORL,L
-
@ MIA,L
G 66
@ LAC,L
vs ATL,W
@ IND,W
Vs CHI,W
@ MEM,L
G 67
@ SAC,L
Vs OKC,W
vs OKC,W
Vs PHI,W
@ DAL,L
G 68
@ DEN,L
@ NJN,W
@ ATL,L
Vs SAS,W
vs CLE,L
G 69
Vs ATL,W
@ MIN,W
@ MIA,L
Vs ORL,L
@ PHI,L
G 70
Vs PHI,W
Vs UTA,L
@ WAS,W
Vs CHA,W
vs HOU,W
G 71
Vs MIA,W
Vs DEN,L
vs MIN,W
@ NJN,W
vs MIA,W
G 72
Vs MEM,W
@ MIA,L
vs WAS,W
@ CHI,L
vs NJN,W
G 73
Vs LAC,W
@ CHA,L
vs TOR,W
@ MIL,L
@ DET,W
G 74
@ CLE,L
Vs LAC,W
vs PHI,W
Vs TOR,W
vs PHO,L
G 75
@ CHA,L
@ PHI,L
vs MIL,W
@ DET,W
@ WAS,W
G 76
Vs PHO,W
Vs GSW,W
@ CHI,L
@ IND,W
vs CHA,W
G 77
@ CHI,L
@ CLE,L
vs ATL,W
@ MIN,W
vs MIL,W
G 78
Vs NJN,W
Vs BOS,L
@ NOH,W
Vs PHI,W
vs CLE,L
G 79
@ PHI,W
@ ATL,L
@ HOU,W
Vs DET,W
@ NJN,W
G 80
Vs BOS,L
Vs CHI,W
vs DET,W
@ NYK,W
@ TOR,L
G 81
Vs ATL,W
@ DET,W
@ NJN,W
@ PHI,W
vs BOS,L
G 82
@ BOS,L
Vs NYK,W
vs CHI,W
Vs NJN,W
@ CHA,L
Streak
11-8
10-9
15-4
14-3
8-11
W-L
45-37
42-40
47-35
47-35
39-43
%
.415
.488
.561
.524
.500
Place
7th
8th
5th
6th
9th
there is now a fairly good possibility that the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference will only be determined by the outcomes of the last 3 games for the Raptors and the Bulls.
Given the complete overhaul of their roster which the Raptors made last summer:
- Trading for Reggie Evans [#1]
- Selecting DeMar DeRozan [#2], No. 9 [overall] in the 2009 NBA Draft
- Signing Jarrett Jack [#3], as a restricted free agent
- Trading for Amir Johnson [#4] and Sonny Weems [#5]
- Trading for Marco Belinelli [#6]
- Trading for Hedo Turkoglu [#7] and Antoine Wright [#8]
in hopes of significantly upgrading the talent level of the players around Chris Bosh, Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani, it is difficult to believe that this is the type of final result which Toronto’s basketball braintrust was expecting from this season.
Last night’s game was a must-win situation for Toronto [5th; 28 L's], looking ahead to the 4-game west coast road trip which begins next week:
Game 62, at LAL [46-17, L?]
Game 63, at SAC [21-41, L?]
Game 64, at GSW [17-44, W?]
Game 65, at POR [37-27, L?]
and in the rear-view mirror, as Milwaukee [6th; 29 L's], Chicago [7th; 30 L's], Miami [8th; 31 L's] and Charlotte [9th; 31 L's] each continue their pursuit of a playoff position [i.e. #5-8] in the Eastern Conference.
Operating without the services of Chris Bosh for the 7th consecutive game, the Raptors were able to post a solid victory, led by the stellar offensive performance of Sonny Weems and Jose Calderon:
who were simply too quick, strong, and athletic for their counterparts on the Knicks to contain off the dribble.
If the Raptors can secure another W tomorrow afternoon, at home against the still struggling 76ers, it would ensure that Toronto [32-28] will be able to return to the cozy confines of the ACC [22-9] for Games 66 and 67 on their schedule, against Atlanta [40-21; Away/15-14] and Oklahoma [37-24; Away/17-13], respectively, no worse than 1 game above the .500 mark [i.e. if they somehow manage to go O-for on their road trip].
With the favourable upcoming schedules held by Charlotte and Miami, and with Milwaukee playing much improved basketball of late … following their acquisitions of John Salmons/G-F and Jerry Stackhouse/G-F … it looks like the battle for the 8th seed in the East might come down to the final 3 games of the regular season for, either, Toronto or Chicago:
TORONTO
Game 80, vs Chicago [W?]
Game 81, at Detroit [L?]
Game 82, vs New York [W?]
CHICAGO
Game 80, at Toronto [L?]
Game 81, vs Boston [L?]
Game 82, at Charlotte [L?]
However, when they shoot like they did yesterday [3-16/.188], they become easy pickings for a high-scoring, offensively oriented, team like the Raptors.
you saw all the evidence you need to realize that Detroit actually has a good deal of solid “NBA talent” on its current roster that is simply under-acheiving this season under the direction of John Kuester.
For example …
- using Rip Hamilton as a SF is a mistake
- using Will Bynum as a primary back-up PG to Rodney Stuckey is a mistake … when you also have Ben Gordon/OG-PG and Rip Hamilton [OG] on your squad, since there are simply not enough minutes available at the OG position, exclusively, for both Rip and BG to develop their rhythm properly in a given game
- using Ben Wallace as their starting C is a mistake … as opposed to using Kwame Brown in this lead “supporting” role and then shifting BW to the role of his primary back-up
- using Austin Daye [being wasted, thus far], Jonas Jerebko [just beginning to be used] and DeJuan Summers [being wasted, thus far] properly this season, should be a priority for the Pistons, as each one of these players has the capacity to develop into a front-line performer for Detroit … which is simply not happening this year under Coach Kuester
- signing offensive players like Charlie Villanueva and Ben Gordon and then NOT using them correctly, by actually running specific set plays designed to get them high percentage shots on a consistent basis, is a mistake … and certainly not what Joe D had in mind when he made those two roster moves this past summer
Those who think that the following list of players, used in the following way:
STARTERS
Stuckey/PG, Hamilton/OG, Prince/SF, Maxiell/PF and Brown/C
KEY SUBS
Gordon/OG-PG, Jerebko/SF-PF, Villanueva/PF-SF and Wallace/C
RESERVES
Daye/OG-SF and Summers/SF-PF
EXTRAS/OUTS
Atkins/PG, Bynum/PG [who should be traded in a package deal for a front-line multi-purpose Big] and Wilcox/PF-C
does not contain “enough” NBA talent to be a top 6 team in the Eastern Conference this season, and beyond, do not possess a high degree of basketball acumen.
Despite the injuries which the Pistons have faced this season, this group of players, if used properly, has more than enough NBA talent to be in the thick of the battle for the #5-8 playoff spots in the east …
Evaluating The NBA Talent Level
of Legitimate Playoff Contenders
in the Eastern Conference
Pos
TORONTO
31-28/.525
5TH
RK
CHICAGO
31-29/.517
6TH
RK
MILWAUKEE
30-29/.508
7TH
RK
MIAMI
29-31/.483
8TH
RK
CHARLOTTE
28-30/.483
9TH
RK
DETROIT
21-39/.350
12TH
RK
COACH
Triano
5
Del Negro
4
Skiles
2
Spoelstra
3
Brown
1
Kuester
6
SUB-TOTAL
5
4
2
3
1
6
STARTERS
PG
Jack
3
Rose
1
Jennings
5
Alston
6
Felton
4
Stuckey
2
OG
DeRozan
6
Hinrich
4
Delfino
5
Wade
1
Jackson
2
Hamilton
3
SF
Turkoglu
4
Deng
3
Salmons
5
Richardson
6
Wallace
1
Prince
2
PF
Bosh
1
Gibson
6
LRMAM
3
Beasley
5
Diaw
2
Maxiell
4
C
Bargnani
3
Noah
2
Bogut
1
O’Neal
4
Chandler
6
Brown
5
SUB-TOTAL
17
16
19
22
15
16
KEY SUBS
PG
Calderon
1
Brown
5
Ridnour
6
Chalmers
4
Augustin
3
Gordon
2
OG
Weems
4
Murray
1
Bell
2
Cook
5
Graham
6
Daye
3
SF
Wright
5
Johnson
6
Stackhouse
1
Wright
2
Brown
4
Jerebko
3
PF
Johnson
6
Warrick
5
Ilyasova
4
Haslem
1
Thomas
2
Villanueva
3
C
Nesterovic
5
Miller
1
Thomas
4
Anthony
6
Mohammed
2
Wallace
3
SUB-TOTAL
21
18
17
18
17
14
RESERVES
G
Belinelli
3
Law
5
Ivey
6
Arroyo
2
Henderson
4
Bynum
1
F/C
Evans
3
James
6
Gadzuric
4
Magloire
2
Diop
1
Summers
5
SUB-TOTAL
6
11
10
4
5
6
TOTAL
49
49
48
47
38
42
EXTRAS/OUT
Banks
5
Pargo
3
Redd
1
Jones
2
Ratliff
4
Atkins
O’Bryant
4
Hunter
1
Brezec
2
Diawara
3
Ajinca
5
Wilcox
Alexander
1
LEGEND: Pos – Position; RK – Ranking.
and, the only reason Detroit is now on the outside looking in is because of their head coach, John Kuester.
i.e. re: Legitimate Contenders to Win the NBA Championship, The Pistons are No. 9 in Rebounding Differential and No. 10 in Points Allowed. The fact that they are also No. 25 in Points Scored Differential is primarily attributable to the relatively poor work of their coach, at the offensive end of the floor, based on how he has decided to use their personnel, thus far.
With Jose Calderon sitting out due to a cut on his right elbow, Hedo Turkoglu taking the second half off with a bad ankle and with Chris Bosh back home in Toronto nursing his sore left ankle, the Raptors were drilled 116-92 by the Rockets here Monday in a game that evoked memories of the horrific defence of the first six weeks of the season.
And coach Jay Triano sounded some warning signs after the loss.
“I don’t know what you mean about playoffs. I would say that we’re not even close to being in the playoffs yet,” he said when the topic of the post-season was broached.
“We’re going to be in a fight until the last day in the schedule. Milwaukee’s playing well, Chicago’s playing well, Charlotte’s playing well. We’re going to be in a fight for a playoff spot right down to the very end.” ————————–
it could well be the case that:
1. Any of these 5 teams could be the 1 to miss out on this year’s playoffs …
Given the “relative strength” of the current rosters for these teams:
Pos
TORONTO
31-28/.525
5TH
RK
CHICAGO
31-29/.517
6TH
RK
MILWAUKEE
30-29/.508
7TH
RK
MIAMI
29-31/.483
8TH
RK
CHARLOTTE
28-30/.483
9TH
RK
COACH
Triano
5
Del Negro
4
Skiles
2
Spoelstra
3
Brown
1
SUB-TOTAL
5
4
2
3
1
STARTERS
PG
Jack
2
Rose
1
Jennings
4
Alston
5
Felton
3
OG
DeRozan
5
Hinrich
3
Delfino
4
Wade
1
Jackson
2
SF
Turkoglu
3
Deng
2
Salmons
4
Richardson
5
Wallace
1
PF
Bosh
1
Gibson
5
LRMAM
3
Beasley
4
Diaw
2
C
Bargnani
3
Noah
2
Bogut
1
O’Neal
4
Chandler
5
SUB-TOTAL
14
13
16
19
13
KEY SUBS
PG
Calderon
1
Brown
4
Ridnour
5
Chalmers
3
Augustin
2
OG
Weems
3
Murray
1
Bell
2
Cook
4
Graham
5
SF
Wright
4
Johnson
5
Stackhouse
1
Wright
2
Brown
3
PF
Johnson
5
Warrick
4
Ilyasova
3
Haslem
1
Thomas
2
C
Nesterovic
4
Miller
1
Thomas
3
Anthony
5
Mohammed
2
SUB-TOTAL
17
15
14
15
14
RESERVES
G
Belinelli
2
Law
4
Ivey
5
Arroyo
1
Henderson
3
F/C
Evans
3
James
5
Gadzuric
4
Magloire
2
Diop
1
SUB-TOTAL
5
9
9
3
4
TOTAL
41
41
41
40
32
EXTRAS/OUT
Banks
5
Pargo
3
Redd
1
Jones
2
Ratliff
4
O’Bryant
4
Hunter
1
Brezec
2
Diawara
3
Ajinca
5
Alexander
1
LEGEND: Pos – Position; RK – Ranking.
and,
2. Charlotte and Miami could be the 2 teams from this group with the best chances of reaching the post-season this season …
* The way a team starts out isn’t necessarily the same way it will finish.
* Neither is the way in which a team performs during a specific stretch of games … e.g. 10, 15, 20, etc. … in the middle of the season necessarily indicative of the way it will eventually finish that year.
————————–
There’s a solid possibility that the 8th position in the Eastern Conference playoffs will only be decided during the final few games of the regular season.
Every year since the 2000-2001 season, each of the two teams which have reached the NBA Finals (i.e. the Champion and the Finalist) have also finished the regular season schedule with a Quality Rating (QR) of 34, or better, and a Quality Index Rank (QIR) of #11 or better (when compared to all playoff teams that year) … i.e. What it takes to win the NBA Championship.
If the NBA Playoffs were to start today, this is what the list of legitimate contenders to win the championship actually looks like:
LEGITIMATE CONTENDERS TO WIN THE NBA CHAMPIONSHIP
[as of Sun Feb 28 2010]
TEAM
W-L REC
WIN %
PDR
PAR
RDR
QR
QIR
ECPT-QIR
WCPT-QIR
Cavaliers
46-14
.767
1
5
1
7
1
1
Magic
40-20
.667
3
6
5
14
2
2
Lakers
45-15
.750
2
8
5
15
3
3
Spurs
33-24
.579
8
9
3
20
4
4
Thunder
35-23
.603
9
7
5
21
5
5
Jazz
38-21
.644
4
13
5
22
6
6
Blazers
35-27
.565
11
4
10
25
7
7
Bobcats
28-29
.491
14
2
12
28
8
8
Heat
29-31
.483
14
3
12
29
9
Celtics
36-21
.632
6
1
23
30
10
9
Bulls
31-28
.525
19
14
4
37
11
10
Bucks
30-29
.508
13
11
14
38
12
11
Hawks
37-21
.638
6
12
24
42
13
12
Grizzlies
30-29
.508
18
23
2
43
14
Pistons
21-38
.356
25
10
9
44
15
Mavericks
39-21
.650
12
15
18
45
16
13
Nuggets
39-20
.661
5
22
22
49
17
14
76ers
22-36
.379
21
17
14
52
T-18
Clippers
24-35
.407
25
16
11
52
T-18
Rockets
29-29
.500
16
21
18
55
T-20
Hornets
31-29
.517
20
19
26
55
T-20
Suns
37-24
.607
10
29
20
59
22
15
Wizards
21-36
.368
23
20
20
63
23
Knicks
20-38
.345
22
25
29
66
24
Raptors
31-27
.534
17
26
24
67
25
16
Kings
20-39
.339
25
27
16
68
26
Timberwolves
14-47
.230
29
28
17
74
27
Nets
6-53
.102
30
18
27
75
28
Pacers
20-39
.339
28
24
28
80
29
Warriors
17-41
.293
24
30
30
84
30
LEGEND: W-L REC – Won-Loss Record; WIN % - Winning Percentage; PDR – Points Differential Ranking; PAR – Points Allowed Ranking; RDR – Rebounding Differential Ranking; QR – Quality Rating [i.e. PDR + PAR + RDR]; QIR – Quality Index Ranking [i.e. No. 1-30]; ECPT-QIR – Eastern Conference Playoff Teams Quality Index Ranking; WCPT-QIR – Western Conference Playoff Team Quality Index Ranking; Blue Shade – Eastern Conference Playoff Teams; Red Shade – Western Conference Playoff Teams.
There are only 9 teams in the hunt with a little more than 1 month’s worth of games left to be played.
4 in the Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers [#1]
Orlando Magic [#2]
Charlotte Bobcats [#8], and
Boston Celtics [#9];
and,
5 in the Western Conference:
Los Angeles Lakers [#3]
San Antonio Spurs [#4]
Oklahoma City Thunder [#5]
Utah Jazz [#6], and
Portland Trail Blazers [#7].
