khandor’s sports blog

What a certain so-called ‘basketball expert’ has said recently about the plight of the New York Knicks and the future possibility of Phil Jackson becoming their head coach for next season:

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Chris Palmer on twitter

Carmelo & Amar’e – 2011: 51.6 ppg; 2012: 39 ppg

27 minutes ago

Phil Jackson and the 2012 Knicks would be perfect for each other.

No team with as much talent as the Knicks should have a losing record. Ever.
about 1 hour ago

=========================

… could not, possibly, be further from the truth.

Simple facts regarding the New York Knicks and Phil Jackson:

#1. James Dolan, historically, has been a meddlesome owner.

#2. At this stage in his life, Phil Jackson – at 67 years of age – has zero need to work for a meddlesome owner.

#3. New York presently has only 2 players who would fit readily with a Phil Jackson coached team: i. Landry Fields; and, ii. Iman Shumpert; as solid, multidimensional, players.

#4. Specifically, Amare Stoudemire [i.e. as a Pick & Roll and Isolation Big, exclusively], Carmelo Anthony [i.e. as an Isolation Forward, exclusively], Tyson Chandler [i.e. Defensively-focused Center, exclusively], Jeremy Lin [i.e. as a defensively weak starting PG], JR Smith [i.e. as a Perimeter 'jacker', exclusively], and Baron Davis [i.e. as a defensively weak back-up PG] are the anti-thesis of what could be accurately described as “a good fit player for the Triangle Offense“, based on their individual skill sets.

#5. Although Mike D’Antoni has, indeed, done a poor job of dealing with the myriad egos on the Knicks, since Carmelo Anthony has returned to their active line-up … in no way should Phil Jackson – and the Triangle Offense – be seen as an elixir to their present [and future] ailments.

If New York Knicks actually want to hire a highly experienced NBA championship winning coach with a different mind-set than Mike D’Antoni, who has a history of working well with established veterans and would be a decent fit with their current roster they should think seriously about one of their own former coaches, i.e. Mr. Larry Brown.

Q. How good can the New York Knicks become, if they get 100% healthy?

A. With the addition of a solid, good-sized, PG like Jeremy Lin, and a full line-up that looks like this:

OWNER – James Dolan

GENERAL MANAGER – Glen Grunwald

HEAD COACH – Mike D’Antoni

STARTERS

PG, Jeremy Lin [acquired December 27, 2012]
OG, Landry Fields
SF, Carmelo Anthony
PF, Amare Stoudemire
C, Tyson Chandler

KEY SUBS

PG, Baron Davis
OG, Iman Shumpert
SF, Bill Walker
PF, Jared Jeffries
C, Steve Novak

RESERVES/EXTRAS/OUTS

PG, Toney Douglas
PG, Mike Bibby
PF, Renaldo Balkman
PF/C, Josh Harrellson
C, Jerome Jordan

New York should be good enough to qualify for the playoffs and, perhaps, advance to the EC semi-finals.

19 months ago, this is exactly what was written here, concerning the ability of Jeremy Lin:

Trying to make your way in the world

based on:

i. The eye test;
ii. A cursory look at his basic game stats while a student-athlete at Harvard University; and,
iii. His stellar performance in this specific game against UConn and Kemba Walker:

The simple facts are these:

1. The vast majority of so-called basketball experts … which, unfortunately, includes most General Managers, and coaches, and players, and stats gurus, etc., in the NBA … do not have the necessary level of basketball acumen to accurately assess the actual skill-set of a player like Jeremy Lin;

2. The Golden State Warriors’ decision to sign but then use Jeremy Lin only as a 3rd string PG, in arrears of Monte Ellis and Stephon Curry, is akin to the Phoenix Suns’ decision in the 1996-1997 season to use Steve Nash, as an after-thought only, behind initially-perceived-to-be “more dynamic” players like Kevin Johnson and Jason Kidd;

3. If Jeremy Lin was diligent enough to work hard to improve his left-hand dribble, he was always more than capable of becoming a legitimate Starting PG in the NBA … if he was also fortunate enough to get the opportunity to play for the right head coach in a best-fit system;

and,

4. Nothing which Jeremy Lin has done so far in the NBA should really come as a surprise to a legitimate basketball expert.

Related:

Jeremy Lin: Knicks’ star is Warriors’ loss

The Toronto Raptors might not find themselves in a better “road win”, or “close road loss,” situation for the rest of this season than what should exist for their contest this evening against the New York Knicks:

given that:

i. Amare Stoudemire [PF/C] missed New York’s most recent game against Sacramento Kings with a sprained ankle;

ii. Baron Davis [PG] has not yet joined the Knicks’ rotation;

iii. The Knicks will be playing their first game at home after just returning from a mini West Coast road trip; and,

iii. The wagering line for this game, as of 1:00 PM ET, was New York Knicks -8.5/-102.

If Dwane Casey is, in fact, as good a coach as this corner thinks he is, then, this game should eventually play out as a “near perfect” scenario for the long term health of the Raptors franchise, i.e. with the visitors playing a highly competitive brand of physical basketball [Win], before losing by less than 8 points [Lose] and, simultaneously, improving their chances of securing a high end selection in the NBA’s 2012 Draft Lottery [Win].

The long term goal of any professional sports franchise should be to win its League Championship … and, the best way for the Raptors to acquire the type of marquee talent necessary to become a legitimate contender in the NBA, one day in the not-too-distant future, is by losing games like this and, thereby, finishing in 30th, 29th or 28th place in the final standings this season.

In spite of what you may have been told to this point by other individuals in the on-line hoops community, the main reason the New York Knicks have played only 8-12 basketball, since trading for Carmelo Anthony, Chauncey Billups, Anthony Carter, Renaldo Balkman and Shelden Williams has nothing to do with:

What Do We Know About Melo and the Knicks after Twenty Games

i. Carmelo Anthony being a less-than star quality

NBA player;

or,

ii. Their need to acquire a new assortment of more productive players than the ones they have already;

or,

iii. Mike D’Antoni doing a bad job and needing to be replaced.

The correct antidote to what presently ails the Knicks is, at-once, more simple AND more complex than any those proposed solutions.

=====================================

To wit …

When New York uses the following rotation:

STARTERS
PG, Chauncey Billips
OG, Landry Fields
SF, Carmelo Anthony
PF, Shawne Williams
C, Amare Stoudemire

KEY SUBS
PG, Tony Douglas
OG/SF, Bill Walker
PF/C, Ronny Turiaf

RESERVES
PG/OG, Roger Mason or Anthony Carter
PF, Renaldo Balkman
PF/C, Shelden Williams 

EXTRAS/OUTS
PG/OG, Anthony Carter or Roger Mason
PG/OG, Andy Rautins
PF, Jared Jeffries

they are a formidable squad capable of playing high level basketball …

because each of their individual players has a clear understanding of what his specific role is within the Team Concept.

OTOH …

When New York uses a rotation that looks like the following:

STARTERS
PG, Chauncey Billips
OG, Landry Fields
SF, Carmelo Anthony
PF/C, Ronny Turiaf
C/PF, Amare Stoudemire

KEY SUBS
PG, Tony Douglas
PG/OG, Roger Mason
SF/PF, Shawne Williams
PF, Jared Jeffries

RESERVES
PG/OG, Anthony Carter
OG/SF, Bill Walker
PF/C, Shelden Williams 

EXTRAS/OUTS
PG/OG, Andy Rautins
PF, Renaldo Balkman

they are a mediocre squad much more likely to perform at a low level …

because their 2nd unit is less potent, there is less role clarity and more overlap of individual responsibilities within the Team Concept.

=====================================

There is more than enough talent on the current version of the New York Knicks to earn the 6th position in the Eastern Conference and compete effectively in the 1st Round of the playoffs … if their team is healthy and Mike D’Antoni chooses to use his available players in their correct roles.

After playing their first 11 games this year, the New York Knicks’ W-L Record was 3-8/.273.

Over the course of their next 14 games, however, the Knicks’ W-L Record has looked like this:

Q1. What precipitated the Knicks turn around this season?

A1. In sharp contrast to what different “stats gurus” have said about the Knicks so far this year …

Decoding the Knicks Secret Rebuilding Plan

The Least Productive Player in the NBA Today is One of the Most Expensive

Using Math to Predict the 2010-2011 Season and the NBA’s Math Doesn’t Add Up

The chief reason reason New York has improved so dramatically over the course of their first 25 games is because, in Game 11, Mike D’Antoni finally made the right decision and re-structured the rotation of his team, by:

i. Shifting Amare Stoudemire [6-10, 240] to his best position, i.e. Center;

ii. Shifting Danilo Gallinari [6-10, 225] to the Power Forward position;

and, 

iii. Re-defining the role of Timofey Mozgov [7-0, 1st-yr], who had functioned as their starting Center to that point in the season.

If you examine the Game Logs for Mr. Mozgov, you should be able to see that he started each of New York’s first 7 games this year; then, was used off the bench for Game 8 and Game 9, and returned to the starting line-up for Game 10 and 11.

In Game 11, however … according to the Play-By-Play … he was only used for 11:00+, and was not re-inserted into game after being substituted for by Ronny Turiaf [PF-C] at the 7:31 mark of the 3rd quarter:

1st Quarter, 12:00, Nyk 0, DEN 0
1st Quarter, 07:28, Nyk 9, DEN 13 [-4/4:32]
—————————————————–
2nd Quarter, 03:49, Nyk 43, DEN 50
2nd Quarter, 01:05, Nyk 51, DEN 59 [-1/2:44]
—————————————————–
3rd Quarter, 12:00, Nyk 54, DEN 61
3rd Quarter, 07:31, Nyk 64, DEN 72 [-1/4:29]

Even though the Knicks went on to lose this game to the Nuggets, it marked The  Turning Point in New York’s season. 

The next day, at Sacramento, the Knicks implemented their “new” rotation for the first time:

Since re-working their rotation, in the midst of Game 11, the Knicks have won 13 games and lost only 1 game.

While it has also been the case that the Knicks have benefitted from playing a relatively easy schedule during this same section of their schedule …

i.e. of these past 14 games only 3 have been against teams with winning W-L Records; Game 12, L @ DEN, Game 18, L vs Atl, and Game 25, W vs Den

… it will be very interesting to see if New York can maintain a positive W-L Record while moving into the next phase of their schedule, where they will encounter a higher class of opponent on a consistent basis:

including:

* 9 opponents with a .500+ W-L Record [in red]

* 3 opponents with a W-L Record that is only 1 game below .500 [in yellow]

* 1 opponent with a W-L Record that is well below .500 [in green]

Yes, the Knicks management team – i.e. Donnie Walsh & Mike D’Antoni – made a series of solid personnel decisions this past off season, including:

- the selection of Landry Fields, in the 2nd Round of the 2010 NBA Draft

- the signing of Amare Stoudemire, as a solid 2nd Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

- the signing of Raymond Felton, as a solid 3rd Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

- the acquisition of Anthony Randolph [SF-PF], Ronny Turiaf [PF-C] and Kelenna Azubuike [OG-SF], in a 3-for-1 trade with the Golden State Warriors [in return for David Lee, PF-C]

- the signing of Timofey Mozgov [C], as a relatively unknown player from the Euro-league

- the signing of Roger Mason, Jr. [PG-OG], as a 4th Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

- the signing of Shawne Williams [PF-SF], as a 5th Tier Unrestricted Free Agent

But the harsh, cold, objective reality of what’s entailed with everyday life in the NBA is that none of those individual – and collective - moves would have mattered one iota, unless their embattled head coach, Mike D’Antoni, also had the good Basketball Sense to re-structure their entire rotation AROUND the skill-set of Amare Stoudemire, while playing him at the Center position; and, not the PF position where so many other non-expert NBA observers mistakenly think ’Stat’ belongs, given his perceived ‘lack of size’, compared to the biggest players in the league who happen to work at this same position.

This type of highly specific, decisive, unconventional and accurate thinking is part of what is commonly referenced here as the work of a Top Notch practicioner in the field of Basketball Coaching.

Kudos to Mike D’Antoni … for replicating the basic systemic footprint he first established with the Phoenix Suns 6 years ago. 

Authentic genius does not involve going out on a proverbial limb.

Authentic genius involves simply identifying accurately:

[i] What actually works, in a given situation

vs

[ii] What actually does not work, in that same [or, at least, a very similar] situation

before others are able to reach a similar conclusion.

[e.g. Please note the reply comment to "Raptorsss", July 28th, 2010, at 10:55 PM, re: the projected Starting Centers in the EC this season, and the proper roles for Amare Stoudemire and Timofey Mozgoz with Mike D'Antoni's Knicks. ] 

Related:

Why Is Amare Stoudemire So Hard To Defend?

Yes, the Raptors did manage to beat the Knicks last night, 108-103, in Montreal QC.

However, after building up a comfortable 17-point lead at the half-way mark, Toronto played very poor basketball in the 3rd and 4th quarters and was actually in significant/real danger of losing last night’s game out-right at two distinct points during the final frame:

#1. At the 10:24 mark … [i] when Mike D’Antoni chose to substitute Andy Rautins [PG] and Anthony Randolph [C] into the game for Raymond Felton and Amare Stoudemire, respectively, in the immediate aftermath of cutting the Raptors’ end-of-3rd-quarter-lead from 14 points down to only 8; and, [ii] when Jay Triano made the decision to re-insert Andrea Bargnani [C] back into the game for David Andersen. 

Then,

#2. During the last 3:28 frantic minutes, when the following sequence occurred:

and New York had 2 full-fledged opportunities to make it a 1-possession game … with more than enough time still left on the game clock to steal what would have been a miraculous victory.

When the regular season tips off for these same two teams, next Wednesday, in Toronto, it is highly doubtful that either squad will decide to play the final 4th quarter with the following 5-man units on the court:

… in what will probably prove to be a close game throughout the final 12 minutes of action with both sides actually trying their best to get the W.

If you’ve taken the time to read a good portion of what’s been published on this blog to-date, then, you are already familiar with a few simple “facts” about the game of basketball:

[for example]

- it is comprised of 3 distinct main phases, i.e. Defense, Rebounding and Offense

- the 1 of these 3 phases which is the least well-understood, by “fans” and other so-called “expert observers” is Rebounding … followed by Defense … primarily, due to its “central” role and the way it influences the character of an elite level team

- basketball is, fundamentally, a “team” game … in which major success and failure [i.e. winning and losing the championship] are determined, in large part, by the highly specific strengths and weaknesses of the “individual” players and their ability to work “in concert” against a particular opponent

- while statistics, in general, are a terrific tool to help one understand how the game actually works, in isolation, they are not a wholly accurate reflection of reality and, at all times, need to be evaluated critically in the appropriate context

- an examination of highly specific anecdotal evidence is a gateway to developing an accurate understanding of the way in which a championship-winning team operates that is separate and distinct from its competition 

- putting an elite level team together properly is akin to “composing a virtuoso work of art” … moreso, than simplistically “painting by the numbers”

============================

To wit:

[this is the specific comment which was just submitted by yours truly at the Wages of Wins Journal]

Another Look at Team USA in 2010

Hmmm …

If someone could take the time to explain the reason the previous comment which I left in this thread was removed, it would be appreciated.

——————————–

In the interim, let’s try again.

It is a mistake in basketball judgment to think that keeping the 12 players with the highest WP48 numbers is necessarily the best way to construct a championship-winning basketball “team”.

Just because Gerald Wallace’s WP48 number … which [in fact] “fails to reflect a picture of reality” [according to a respected commentor [sic] on this site like Tom Mandel] … is substantially higher than Rudy Gay’s does not mean that simply “replacing Gay with Wallace” is the better way to go, in this case, i.e. with this specific group of players, their expected opposition, and the relatively large group of [at least, somewhat redundant] PG’s still on the active roster [i.e. Curry, Billups, Rondo, Rose and Westbrook], when compared with the sheer number of wing players [i.e. combo OG/SF/PF] with good size, strength, relative quickness – at their respective positions – and the ability to: i. defend, ii. rebound, iii. shoot the ball efficiently from distance, and iv. be high volume scorers, e.g. like Iguodala, Gay and Durant].

When you dissect how a championship-winning team is actually put together, what you will find is that rarely – if ever – is it simply a conglomeration of the 12 players with the highest available WP48 numbers [e.g. Was Charles Barkley a member of the 1984 team? or, Was Isiah Thomas a member of the original Dream Team?] And, the exact reasons for this are rarely – if ever – rooted in the way these specific players performed in lead-up public scrimmage situations.

Unfortunately, numeric-based analysis of basketball which reads like this is what can create a poor image overall for “stats” gurus, in the eyes of elite level coaches the world over.

[Hopefully this comment meets with your approval.]

—————

Enjoy!

In last night’s victory against the Detroit Pistons, embattled New York Knick’s head coach, Mike D’Antoni, unveiled a new Starting Line-up for the home team:

PG, Tracy McGrady [6-8, 223], 34:28/MP
OG, Bill Walker [6-6, 230], 36:27/MP
SF, Danilo Gallinari [6-10, 225], 37:24/MP
PF, Al Harrington [6-9, 250], 35:45/MP
C, David Lee [6-9, 250], 43:56/MP

and, then, chose to give only 2 other players a significant number of minutes coming off the bench:

PG, Sergio Rodriguez [6-3, 176], 29:44/MP
OG/PG, Eddie House [6-1, 180], 19:27/MP

in what turned out to be a very tight, and effective, 7-Man rotation:

Detroit Pistons 104
NEW YORK KNICKS 128
Boxscore 

During this game, the Knicks used the following 5-Man Units with the associated +/- results:

While some observers in the on-line hoops community might be scratching their heads today about the level of success which New York enjoyed last night, while playing without a “traditional” Point Guard in their Starting Unit, it should come as no surprise at all to regular readers of this blog.

If Mike D’Antoni elects to stick with this arrangement, which dramatically improves New York’s ability to REBOUND the ball for significant segments within a game, it will be very interesting, indeed, to see how this new 7-Man rotation holds up for the Knicks over their next 3 games:

at TORONTO RAPTORS [.500+; Tied for 24th in Rebounding Differential]
vs New Jersey
vs Atlanta [.500+; Tied for 24th in Rebounding Differential]

prior to heading out on the road for 5 consecutive games:

at SAN ANTONIO [.500+; 3rd in Rebounding Differential]
at MEMPHIS [.500+; 2nd in Rebounding Differential]
at DALLAS [.500+; 18th in Rebounding Differential]
at PHILADELPHIA
at BOSTON [.500+; 23rd in Rebounding Differential]

If any of New York’s upcoming opponents are asleep at the switch, during this late season stretch of games, it should not come as any sort of surprise to that team’s fans to see the Knicks rise up and steal more than 1 or 2 of these specific match-ups. 

—————————–

PS. Yours truly has advocated that Tracy McGrady be used at the Point Guard position, going back in time to his initial years in the NBA with the Toronto Raptors. Even after all these years, it is still gratifying to see him succeed when placed in this specific role by his head coach. Oh, what the Raptors could well have developed into, way back then, if the people responsible for running the franchise had truly known what they were doing, from a basketball acumen standpoint with the triumpherate of T-Mac/PG, Vince Carter/OG and Doug Christie/SF on their roster, in conjunction with a slew of solid Bigs that included the likes of Antonio Davis/PF, Kevin Willis/PF, Charles Oakley/PF, Jerome Williams/PF, Keon Clark/PF and Hakeem Olajuwon/C, over a series of years from 1998 to 2002. 

In the interview Bryan Colangelo did with Eric Smith [FAN590], prior to the Raptors’ win vs the Bulls [Nov 11 2009], he said the following words:

“We’ll know what we’ve got by the end of the month.”

The Bosh Factor: Bryan Colangelo Won’t Be Patient With Early Losses

At the time, Toronto’s W-L Record was 3-4/.429.

11 days later, it is now 6-7/.462, good enough for 2nd place in the Atlantic Division and 9th place in the Eastern Conference.

Beginning with this afternoon’s home game vs Orlando, the Raptors will play 7 games over the next 11 days:

Game 14 Sun Nov 22 vs Orl [10-3/.769; 1st Southeast, 2nd EC]

Game 15 Tue Nov 24 vs Ind [5-5/.500; 4th Central, 8th EC]
Game 16 Wed Nov 25 @ CHA [3-9/.250; 4th (tie) Southeast, 10th (tie) EC]

Game 17 Fri Nov 27 @ BOS [9-4/.692; 1st Atlantic, 4th EC]

Game 18 Sun Nov 29 vs Pho [10-3/.769; 1st Pacific, 1st (tie) WC]

Game 19 Tue Dec 01 vs Was [3-9/.250; 4th (tie) Southeast, 12th (tie) EC]
Game 20 Wed Dec 02 @ ATL [11-3/.786; 1st Southeast, 1st EC]

which will take the team to the 1/4 pole of the regular season schedule.

This is the specific stretch of games that will reveal exactly what type of team the Raptors have, at the moment, and what can be expected from this group for the remainder of the season should there be no further major player personnel and/or coaching changes going forward.

While some voices in Raptorville believe the team’s performance during this stretch will turn out to be a source of tremendous optimism, and preceed a gradual upswing in the standings, as the season progresses …

45 Wins, and How the Raptors Will Get There [5-2, Nov 22 to Dec 02]

looking ahead, in September, from the vantage point of an astute NBA observer, this corner did not share that same perspective:

Raptors half-way through their first 20 games

According to his record, as a General Manager, Bryan Colangelo has a well-documented history of making an assessment of his team’s situation sometime in the first two weeks of December.

Tic toc, tic toc, tic toc … [Apr 11 2008]

If he likes what he has seen to that point, he continues moving forward, as is.

If, however, he does NOT like what he “thinks” he sees from his team … then, the fanbase best be prepared for a seismic shift, in terms of either player personnel and/or the head coach position.

Of scorpions, frogs, GMs & coaches [Apr 30 2008]

Wait a second … what’s really going on here [Dec 04 2008]

What is really going on here: Part II [Dec 05 2008]

Of scorpions, frogs, GMs & faces of the franchise [Mar 25 2009]

The next 2 weeks should prove to be a most interesting time in the 15 year history of the Toronto Raptors franchise. 

Related:

VC Declines Honour