khandor’s sports blog

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 20 – at Atlanta [Wed Dec 02]

The Hawks are going to be a solid team in the EC this season. Adding a good PG from the 2009 NBA Draft [i.e. Jeff Teague], a multi-purpose Guard [i.e. Jamal Crawford] and a serviceable veteran Big [i.e. Joe Smith] improves their squad significantly; as does 1 more year of maturation with their core group [i.e. Joe Johnson, 28; Al Horford, 23; Josh Smith, 23; and, Marvin Williams, 23] together. The individual match-up advantages favour Atlanta … which will probably mean another road loss for the Raptors, in this back-2-back.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 7-13

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PS. This marks the end of the “early season” phase for the Raptors.

Related:

Toronto Raptors Season Preview: Game 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1.

* Tyler Hansbrough makes his summer league debut. Those who think that Larry Bird made a mistake with the No. 13 pick in the 2009 NBA Draft are going to be in for a surprise this season.

* Colangelo works fast and hard to get Turkoglu. Hedo is many things but a player who “creates” shots working off the dribble he is not. Expect THAT from him, without the benefit of a pick and you’ll be in for disappointment Raptors fans.

* What’s next? As the old adage goes: “Some of the best deals a team ever makes are the ones it doesn’t make, in the first place.” Solace for Blazers fans in the aftermath of winning losing the Hedo Turkoglu Sweepstakes.

* Buyer Beware! Things are not always as they first appear to be, when it comes to advantageous signings during the NBA’s free agency period.  

* Nick Collison says Thunder is ready for the next step. Sleep on Oklahoma City this coming season at your own peril.

There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:

Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.

In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.

So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.

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By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]

OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]

SMALL FORWARDS
* None

POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]

CENTERS
* Johan Petro {#4]

When Raptors fans look at the way their team is perfoming during the final 20 games of their disappointing season …

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* - >.500 Team

winning only 7 of the 15 games [.467] they’ve played thus far.

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they need to make an accurate appraisal of the players who will form the nucleus of this team going forward from here:

Unlike many others in Raptorville, this corner does not believe that the main problems this team has experienced this season have been rooted in the assortment of injuries they’ve sustained and/or the overall poor performances of Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon, who are their best players by a wide margin.

Until Bryan Colangelo significantly upgrades the players who are currently slotted into the #3-15 spots on the Raptors’ roster:

i.e. Shawn Marion/#3, Andrea Bargnani/#4, Anthony Parker/#5, Joey Graham/#6, Kris Humphries/#7, Jason Kapono/#8, Roko Ukic/#9, Pops Mensah-Bonsu/#10, Quincy Douby/#11, Jake Voskuhl/#12, Patrick O’Brant/#13 and Nathan Jawai/#14

there is little chance this team will make serious headway in the Eastern Conference next season. 

Using the 4th place Atlanta Hawks, as one comparative example:

1. While Chris Bosh [C] can hold his own against other up-and-coming young players like Al Horford [C] or Josh Smith [PF], Andrea Bargnani [C] cannot; and, is simply out-classed by either of these two players.

2. While Jose Calderon [PG] can hold his own against a solid veteran like Mike Bibby [PG], Shawn Marion [SF] cannot stay with a multi-dimensional, dynamic Wing player like Joe Johnson [SF/OG/PG].

3. While Joey Graham has made a significant jump this season … i.e. from a seldom-used after-thought to a serviceable Wing player … he is simply not as good as Maurice Evans [OG/SF], nor as consistent.

4. While Jason Kapono is one of the best stand-still “catch & shoot” artists in the NBA, he is simply not as versatile a Back-up Guard/Forward as a Flip Murray, who can capably fill in for the Hawks, as an under-sized OG and an emergency PG.

5. While Kris Humphries is a solid Back-up Big Man, he is simply not as good as Zaza Pachulia.

6. While Roko Ukic has the make-up of a solid Point Guard, in the NBA, he is not a superior player to Acie Law, at this position.

7. While Pops Mensah-Bonsu certainly brings some badly needed energy and NBA athleticism to the Raptors, he is simply not in the same class of serviceable Back-up Big Man as a versatile player like Solomon Jones [who was a DNP in last night's game but can capably fill-in for the Hawks at both C and PF].

Most of which was on full display in last night’s game.

FINAL SCORE: RAPTORS 110, Hawks 118
Complete Game Info

FINAL SCORE: Tor 84, ATL 87
Game Info; Box Score; Full Play-By-Play; Video Highlights

It is comical to read that many observers in Raptorville actually believe that Jamario Moon was the main reason the Raptors lost this game yesterday and that what Chris Bosh did at the 01:33 mark of the 4th quarter was, in fact, what his team needed from him, at that point, in this contest.

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Yours truly is appreciative of Chris Bosh, as the Captain of this team … but, in this specific instance, what he did at that moment in time was the exact opposite of what was needed by his teammates and specifically a player like Jamario Moon.

What exactly happened at the 01:33 mark of the final quarter?

Joe Johnson beat Jamario Moon off the bounce, from the top of the key [TOTK] for a driving layup, straight down the middle of the lane. On his made field goal attempt, however, Johnson was fouled by Moon. Chris Bosh came off his own check to provide late help at the rim for Moon. After the bodies unpiled off the ground, Bosh tore a strip off his teammate for his inability to prevent a direct drive to the basket by Johnson, putting the responsibility for this made basket by the Hawks best player squarely on the shoulders of his beaten Raptors’ teammate.

If you watch the videotape of Moon’s reaction to the calling out he received from Bosh you will see that he was completely stunned and upset to be singled out in this way, by his Captain, at this point in the game.

The score was Tor 84, ATL 83 … and Toronto then possession of the ball.

* Joey Graham subbed in for Roko Ukic, meaning that the Raptors best available 5-Man Unit of Parker/PG, Graham/W, Moon/W, Bargnani/B & Bosh/B were on the floor together for the final minute and half of the game.

Possession #1
Bosh set an Angle Pick for Parker [Left-TOTK]. Parker drove left [vs Flip Murray] and passed off to Graham [Left-Corner]. Graham drove the left baseline [vs Evans & Smith] and took a contested jumpshot which missed with 9 seconds remaining on the shot clock [01:18]. Smith collected the defensive rebound.

Possession A
Smith passed to Johnson in the Hawks’ back-court. Johnson dribbled into the front-court and tried to iso vs Parker [Left-Wing]. Bargnani provided backside help to deter Johnson’s drive. Johnson drove left regardless and was soft double-teamed by Parker & Bargnani. Johnson passed out of the double-team to Bibby [Left-TOTK]. Bibby shot-faked and was fouled by Moon. Bibby Made 2 FT’s … Tor 84, ATL 85 [00:54.4]. Raptors’ Time-Out [Full].

Possession #2
Kapono subbed in for Graham. Kapono inbounded the ball [Left-Sideline] and passed directly to Bosh [Left-TOTK/vs Josh Smith]. Bosh tried to swept right and drive by Smith into the lane. Smith deflected the ball off Bosh’s knee and it went to Johnson with 22 seconds on the shot clock. Turnover, Chris Bosh [00:52.7].

Possession B
Atlanta attacked in transition [Johnson vs Bargnani]. Johnson passed to Smith [Left-Wing, vs Parker]. Smith drove into the lane and passed to Maurice Evans [Left-Block]. Evans attempted a wild driving, twisting layup vs the 4 Raptors [i.e. Parker, Bosh, Bargnani & Moon] who were back standing under the basket, with 19 seconds remaining on the shot clock [00:45.2]. Bosh collected the defensive rebound.

Possession #3 
Bosh made an outlet pass to Parker. Parker attacked in transition [vs Flip Murray, Right-Elbow]. Evans recovered to Parker [Right-TOTK]. Parker passed to Moon [Right-Free Throw Line Extended/FTLX], who was unchecked in transition. Moon attempted a 3PT-shot with 20 seconds remaining on the shot clock [00:38.6], in a two for one situation, down by 1 point. Murray closed out vs Moon. Moon’s 3-ball missed. Johnson tipped the defensive rebound to Bibby. Raptors’ game announcers - Matt Devlin & Leo Rautins [TV] and Eric Smith & Paul Jones [Radio] - castigated Moon for shooting THAT shot at that point in the game.

Possession C
In the Hawks’ back-court, Bibby passed Murray & Murray passed to Johnson. Johnson [vs Moon] dribbled into the front-court. Johnson passed to Bibby [Left-Hash Mark/vs Parker]. Johnson [vs Moon] set a High Middle Pick for Bibby [vs Parker]. Parker & Moon Switched. Johnson iso’d vs Parker [Left-Elbow] and took a tough 18 foot pull-up jump shot that was heavily contested by both Parker & Moon [helping off Bibby/TOTK]. Johnson Made the jump shot with 2 seconds remaining on the shot clock [00:12.5]. Tor 84, ATL 87. Raptors’ Time-Out [20]. Toronto & Atlanta each with 1 Time-Out [20] left.

Possession #4
Kapono [Left-Sideline/vs Flip Murray] inbounded the ball to Parker [TOTK/vs Maurice Evans]. Kapono cut baseline off Staggered Lane Screens by Bosh [1st/vs Smith] and Bargnani [2nd/vs Johnson] and curled out to receive the pass [Right-FTLX] from Parker. Murray went Over the 1st Screen and Locked & Trailed on the 2nd Screen. Kapono caught the pass cleanly and elavated for his 3PT jump shot. Johnson [helping off Bargnani] rotated out to contest Kapono’s jump shot. Bargnani stepped to the Left-Corner. Kapono tried to pass in mid-air to Bargnani but the jump-pass was deflected by Johnson [00:08.0]. Murray bobbled the loose ball. Bargnani bobbled the loose ball. Kapono collected the loose ball and took a 3PT-shot [Right-Sideline/vs Murray] that missed [00.04.5]. Smith collected the defensive rebound [00:02.8].

Possession D
Smith passed ahead to Johnson in the Hawks front-court [00:00.0]. End of Game.

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As a Team Leader …

What Chris Bosh NEEDED to do instead, at that moment in time, with the game on the line, was encourage his teammates NOT admonish them.

See the Full Play-By-Play [above] to compare the way Bosh and Moon played from 05:00-01:33 of the 4th quarter.

Admonishing teammates with 01:33 remaining in a 1 point ball-game usually leads to further execution errors, by both parties, not less … which is precisely what happened in this instance.

Hopefully, as Chris Bosh continues to mature, in this regard … as a person, player and a Leader … he will better realize the error of his ways.

When yours truly sees this type of observation being made repeatedly in on-line articles and commentary by traditional media sources, bloggers, and members of the Raptors’ fanbase …

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Reasons for concern in Raptorville
The defenceless point guard

In his first year as starting point guard, Jose Calderon has kept up his efficient offensive ways, with a league-leading 4.18 assists for every turnover.

But on the other end of the floor, opposing point guards routinely light up Calderon. Tony Parker had 24 points and 10 assists against him. Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook had 19 points and eight assists. Devin Harris has torched Calderon in two decisive fourth quarters.

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it indicates that there is still a significant level of basketball sophistication that has yet to be reached by many of the followers of this team.

The average Raptors fan has seen Jose Calderon play each and every game of his NBA career to-date; but this does NOT mean that said fan has a sound/accurate understanding of the game, in general, and how it should be played properly, concerning a player like the Raptors’ starting PG.

In reality … while Jose Calderon will never be confused for a top notch defensive player … he is far from being an atrocious defender at the PG position in the NBA.

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Specific Defensive Responsibilities of a PG for a team in the NBA

Situation #1. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. Pressure/contain the opposition’s PG, 1-on-1.

Situation #2. In a half-court situation when there is a Pick being set on him. Direct the opposition’s PG toward the Picker - in conjunction with the Picker’s defender - and then recover [by going either under or over, depending on the specific defensive tactic being used] to defend the PG on the dribble.

Situation #3. In a transition situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To contain the opposition’s PG on the dribble, 1-on-1.

Situation #4. In a transition situation when there is a Pick being set on him. To contain the opposition’s PG on the dribble, in conjunction with the Picker’s defender.

Situation #5. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To switch defensive responsibilities with a teammate who has the task of defending against an opposition player who plays a different position and is, therefore, usually a bigger player. 

Situation #6. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To initiate defensive double-teams and traps against opponent players who are very skilful at scoring either in the Low Post or on drives from the perimeter into the lane.

Situation #7. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him.  To rotate appropriately in order to provide the necessary help for a teammate who has been beaten on a dribble penetration move by an opponent.

Situation #8. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To rotate appropriately in order to provide the necessary help for a teammate who has had to rotate to assist a teammate that has been beaten on a dribble penetration move by an opponent, i.e. Help-the-helper.

Situation #9. In a half-court situation when there is no Pick being set on him. To close-out appropriately versus an opponent shooter, contesting the shot and containing that player on the dribble.

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When Jose Calderon is injury-free, the vast majority of his individual defensive breakdowns occur in Situation #2, as a result of a Big-on-Little Pick, where the main culprit isn’t actually Calderon at all but the Raptors’ Big involved in defending this specific action.

If Andrea Bargnani [who is the worst offender], Jermaine O’Neal [who is the 2nd worst offender], Chris Bosh [who is fairly good at this] and Kris Humphries [who is the most proficient at this], as a group, do a poor job defensively when:

i. Switching
ii. Showing & Recovering, or
iii. Trapping

in a 5/4-on-1 Pick scenario … and the opponent’s PG is able to dribble penetrate into the heart of the Raptor’s defense on a consistent basis, primarily, this is not the fault of the Dino’s PG.

When assessing Jose Calderon’s individual defense … encompassing those Nine Situational Categories … versus that provided by the other starting PGs across the League, this is what you should be able to see:

which would place him in the middle-of-the-pack, approximately, not towards the bottom. 

Hawks Re-Sign Josh Smith!

As it stands right now, this Atlanta Hawks team …

2008-2009 Roster
PLAYER POS HT WT
Bibby, Mike G 6-1 190
Claxton, Speedy G 6-1 170
Evans, Maurice G-F 6-5 220
Horford, Al C-F 6-10 245
Johnson, Joe G 6-7 235
Jones, Solomon F 6-10
Law, Acie G 6-3 195
Morris, Randolph C 6-11 259
Pachulia, Zaza C 6-11
Richardson, Jeremy (FA) G-F 6-7 195
Smith, Josh (FA) F 6-9 235
Stoudamire, Salim (FA) G 6-1 175
West, Mario West (FA) G 6-5 210
Williams, Marvin F 6-9 230

with the solid acquisitions they’ve made this off-season … AND without over-paying for a mediocre NBA player like Josh Childress … is SOOOOO MUCH BETTER THAN 2007-2008, it’s no comparison.

While some might not LIKE Rick Sund (new GM), the solid job he’s done, thus far, is a MATTER OF FACT.

If the Hawks can stay healthy this season … they will be a legitimate Playoff Contender for a second consecutive year, in a much improved the Eastern Conference.