khandor’s sports blog

Those expecting the Lakers to take a precipitous tumble in the Western Conference standings this season … in the aftermath of “whiffing” on a trade for Chris Paul [PG] and then sending Lamar Odom [SF/PF] to Dallas … do not have an accurate understanding of just how good Devin Ebanks [SF, 2nd-yr] is most likely going to be for their team this year.

Once Andrew Bynum’s suspension finishes and Kobe’s wrist injury fully heals, the following line-up for the Lakers:

STARTERS
Derek Fisher + Kobe Bryant + Devin Ebanks + Pau Gasol + Andrew Bynum

KEY SUBS
Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Metta World Peace, Josh McRoberts and Troy Murphy

RESERVES
Jason Kapono and Luke Walton

EXTRAS
Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock and Derrick Caracter [inj.]

is still going to be formidable … as the bolded players above are actually much better than many so-called [but really illegitimate] NBA observers realize.

After the Lakers eventually use their large Traded Player Exception – obtained in exchange for Mr. Odom – it should come as no surprise at all to see this team finish with the best W-L record in the Pacific Division, once again.

Mitch Kupchak [GM] has already proven that he knows how to construct a top flight NBA team … as long as Jim Buss is able to stay out of the way.

Update:

For the benefit of those who might need some further clarification, here’s the follow-up comment which yours truly left a few minutes ago, in a related thread at PBT …

Devin Ebanks [i.e. think of a better, more physical, version of Trevor Ariza] and Darius Morris [i.e. think of a young, poor man's version of Tony Parker] are both very solid young players with the ability to make positive contributions to this year’s Lakers team which desperately needed an infusion of youth on the heels of last season’s disappointing end. Josh McRoberts is the type of banger who Mike Brown has made very effective use of in the past [i.e. think of a more athletic version of Anderson Varejao]. Troy Murphy [PF] playing beside either Andrew Bynum or Gasol is going to be a very potent player [i.e. think of the double-double machine who was a former starter for the Pacers]. Once the Lakers decide to use their TPE … and it doesn’t need to be in regards to acquiring a stud like Dwight Howard [C] … their roster is still going to be formidable for the Western Conference Playoffs, as long as they are healthy. Although they won’t play the type of artistically pleasing basketball they did under the direction of Dr. Phil, they will still be a highly effective team, under the capable direction of a defensive-minded head coach like Mike Brown. Those expecting a rapid Lakers’ demise this season will most likely be quite disappointed by season’s end.

When the Raptors’ current roster looks like this:

sound personnel management SHOULD dictate that the team does not add a player with the specific skill-set of Matt Barnes, as an unrestricted free agent, at a cost of $4.5 M per year.

The fact is …

Matt Barnes chose to opt out of his contract with the Orlando Magic.

Matt Barnes sees himself as a starting calibre player in the NBA.

However, Matt Barnes is not a starting calibre player in the NBA.

Matt Barnes is a mediocre Small Forward, who does nothing well, in particular … in spite of his reputation as a worthwhile defensive player who brings a certain amount of grit to the table … and, whose team usually goes in a reverse direction, once he comes on board [e.g. which is precisely what happened in both Phoenix and Orlando]. 

Playing for the Orlando Magic last season, Matt Barnes had a contract which paid him something less-than $2.0 M/yr.

In his 7-year NBA career, Matt Barnes has already played for 7 different teams.

If your team aleady has a starting calibre wing player – e.g. Grant Hill [Phoenix Suns] or Vince Carter – then Matt Barnes can be an adequate back-up player … if he chooses to play within his role, as a cost-effective substitute. 

However, if your team does not already have a starting calibre wing player on its roster … e.g. DeMar DeRozan [20], Sonny Weems [], Marco Belinelli [], Linas Kleiza [] and Leandro Barbosa … then, adding a disruptive player like Matt Barnes – see exhibit A and B – is a waste of organizational resources.

When you read the following article:

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Magic match Bulls’ offer sheet to retain Redick

The decision drives the Magic deeper into the luxury tax and gives them one of the NBA’s highest payrolls at about $93 million next season. The move keeps Orlando’s roster mostly intact as the Magic hope continuity will overcome Miami’s All-Star trio and Boston’s Big Three in the Eastern Conference.

“When it came down to it, when we’re talking about what we’re trying to do here, it came down for me to pedigree, DNA, things that most people don’t think about,” Orlando general manager Otis Smith said. “It was less about the money for me, being the basketball guy, and more about keeping a guy around that we’ve had in our organization for the past four years.”

The decision was ultimately made by ownership.

Because Redick was a restricted free agent, Orlando had seven days to match the contract. Billionaire owner Rich DeVos and team president Bob Vander Weide took all seven days to make the move that nearly doubles Redick’s salary from last season.

Teams have to pay a dollar for every dollar they are over the luxury tax, which the league set at $70.3 million for next season. The tax hit is based on the roster at the end of the season, meaning it’s likely the Magic could make trades before then to lessen the financial burden.

Orlando should find relief in a new downtown arena that opens this year and creates new revenue streams. Smith also believes a roster that remains one of the deepest in the league is attractive for potential moves and doesn’t mortgage the Magic’s future.

“The fact that we have players that other teams want makes you pretty flexible,” Smith said. “Is it possible to give out contracts and move a little bit less money? Sure. My thing is you don’t want to take a step back with talent.”

At the very least, keeping Redick assures that.

The former Duke standout was the 11th overall pick in the 2006 draft. He struggled early in his NBA career but has become a significant contributor for the Magic.

So much so that Smith decided that Redick and recently signed small forward Quentin Richardson(notes) had more value than Matt Barnes(notes), who became a free agent after one season with Orlando. Smith said he never offered Barnes a deal and all but ruled out the small forward returning next season.

“It really came down to out of those three, which of the two do we bring in?” Smith said. “We like what Matt brought to the table, but sometimes you have to make decisions that’s best for your club long-term.”

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and, are then made aware of the following information:

EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS

2003-2004, 2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009 and 2009-2010

TRANSACTIONS

Orlando vs Toronto

Isolating the performances of the Raptors and the Magic:

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what you should be able to see is that both of these respective franchises have, in FACT, had a legitimate opportunity to build a first-class operation … starting from a lower tier position in the league 7 seasons ago; and, which has included the hiring of a new GM, along the way … focused on being able to compete for a NBA championship in the not-to-distant future.

To this point, however, only one has made significant head-way … and, a key question going forward for the other, then, becomes:

How many of the players expected to be on their roster next season actually fit into the “Just Winners” category, based upon their experience in the game, thus far?

Unfortunately for the Raptors, the correct answer, according to these eyes, is … quite possibly … as few as 3. 

Although plenty of other NBA observers have expressed their concerns regarding the current performance of the Orlando Magic …

A Quantitative Look at the Orlando Magic’s Four All-Stars

Orlando Magic News for January 19th: Sobering Assessments of Orlando’s Season Abound at the Halfway Mark

much of what’s been said to-date misses the mark completely, when it comes to diagnosing accurately:

#1. What’s been going on with Orlando in the last month [or so]?

and,

#2. What specific remedies the Magic will need to implement, in order to make their problems disappear for the balance of this season? 

There are five simple [inter-related] player personnel moves which Stan Van Gundy needs to implement that will cure what is ailing the Orlando Magic at the moment:

1. Replace Jason Williams with Anthony Johnson as the exclusive primary Back-up Point Guard to Jameer Nelson.

2. Remove Matt Barnes from the regular rotation.

3. Shift Rashard Lewis into the Starting Small Forward position.

4. Shift Ryan Anderson into the Starting Power Forward position.

5. Use Brandon Bass in the Back-up Power Forward position.

What these five specific changes would do, in effect, is create a regular rotation which features the following Start Five:

Jameer Nelson, PG
Vince Carter, OG
Rashard Lewis, SF
Ryan Anderson, PF
Dwight Howard, C

in conjunction with the following set of Key Subs off the bench:

Anthony Johnson, PG
JJ Redick, OG
Mickael Pietrus, SF
Brandon Bass, PF 
Marcin Gortat, C

and the following list of Reserves/Extras/Outs:

Jason Williams, PG
Matt Barnes, SF
Adonal Foyle, C

Move #1
With a healthy Jameer Nelson [PG] in their everyday line-up, an erratic player like Jason Williams [PG] is not the right fit with their team, in a primary back-up role, in comparison with a more consistent player like Anthony Johnson [who is a much better defender and rebounder than J-Wil, at this stage of their respective careers].

Game Log for Anthony Johnson in Orlando’s Last 13 Games

Game Log for Anthony Johnson when playing +10:00

Move #2
Although Matt Barnes [6-7, 226] has proved to be an energetic player over the course of his NBA career, right now he is not a “good fit” with the Magic, given his specific skill-set [i.e. 3FG%=28.6; Ast:TO=1.0] and considering the other guards and forwards on their roster.

Move #3
Using a player like Rashard Lewis [6-10, 230] at the Starting SF position makes the Magic bigger at this spot … i.e. compared with Matt Barnes [6-7, 226] … while still retaining their collective ability to shoot the ball effectively from the perimeter [i.e. 3FG%=39.5] and make good decisions [i.e. Ast:TO=1.0] around a center-piece like Dwight Howard.

This move would then allow Mickael Pietrus to flourish, by providing Orlando with a much better scorer and defender coming off the bench, at this key swing position, instead of Matt Barnes.

Move #4
Ryan Anderson is a solid low-maintenance perimeter shooting Big Man who can stretch defense around D-12 and defend adequately: [i] on the perimeter against smaller players, and [ii] in the post against non-behemoth Power Forwards and Centers.

Move #5
Brandon Bass is an under-sized Power Forward who, on offense, works well in the mid-range area [i.e. FG%=53.1] and is able to hold his ground, defensively, and in terms of rebounding, against any Back-up PF. Unfortunately, to this point in the season, he is being wasted on the Magic’s bench with a series of DNPs.

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Magic Remedy, Part 1

If Stan Van Gundy makes these specific personnel adjustments Orlando will finish in 1 of the top 4 positions in the Eastern Conference, once again, and advance to the East Finals, against Boston or Cleveland or Atlanta or Miami, with a solid shot at returning to the NBA Finals this season. 

Magic Remedy, Part II

What Stan Van Gundy also needs to do, however, is return to being the curmudgeon he has always been, not the giant “teddy bear” he has morphed into recently, in the aftermath of Dwight Howard’s request to “lighten up” on his routinely harsh criticism of his own team/players.

If Stan chooses to continue on his current path, then, Orlando will have very little chance of besting Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta or Miami in the playoffs this season.

This is not the sort of team that Stan Van Gundy can afford to “go soft on”.

This evening’s game between Toronto [11-16/.407, 2nd Atlantic] and Orlando [18-6/.750, 1st Southeast] marks the first occasion for the “Turkish Michael Jordan” to make a return visit to his old haunt in the Magic Kingdom.

As the former “go-to, clutch time” performer for last season’s squad in Orlando, which played its way to the NBA Finals …

What did it really say about Hedo Turkoglu [at 30 years of age] that he was actually willing to forego the opportunity to win a NBA championship with the Magic this season, in order to sign a $50.0 M contract to play the next 5 seasons for the Toronto Raptors?

Perhaps, that he really does care more about being content and comfortable in his own personal life than he cares about doing what’s necessary to win a NBA championship.

Doing what’s necessary to win a NBA championship?

For example:

* Getting back in defensive transition to prevent easy opposition baskets.

* Defending one’s individual check with consistent tenacity.

* Defending, in a half-court team context, with thorough responsibility.

* Rebounding with an absolute commitment to recover the ball.

* Discriminating readily between an open and a contested shot attempt.

* Physically standing up for a fallen/vulnerable teammate, when need be.

* A willingness to play within an assigned role for the good of the team.

* A willingness to sacrifice oneself [i.e. the physical body, as well as, personal wants and desires] for the benefit of the team.

In their 16 losses this year, Bryan Colangelo’s Raptors have succumbed by margins of:

Considering that the acquisition of Hedo Turkoglu/SF:

Career Stats, Hedo Turkoglu

was one of the two major personnel moves made by the Raptors this past summer …

along with the $50.0 M, 5-yr extension of the ‘rookie contract’ for former No. 1 [overall] Draft Pick, Andrea Bargnani/C:

Career Stats, Andrea Bargnani

it should be of little wonder to the Raptors faithful that Toronto is mired in the lower half of the Eastern Conference, in a quest for the last playoff position.

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Shame on those who actually thought that Otis Smith [GM, Orlando Magic] may not have known exactly what he was talking about …

Orlando Magic GM dissing Hedo Turkoglu?

in his alleged conversations with Kevin Pritchard [GM, Portland Trail Blazers], in the aftermath of Mr. Turkoglu’s decision to sign on with the Raptors, and that Hedo Turkoglu’s priorities might actually include winning a NBA title. 

Caveat Emptor!

Which team[s] made out the best from the 4-team trade … between Toronto, Dallas, Memphis and Orlando … this past summer?

Rick Kamla gets it right.

Orlando Magic 125
TORONTO RAPTORS 116
[Sun Nov 01 2009]

Box Score Info

Crucial Sequence, Play-By-Play

Crucial Sequence, Substitution Chart