khandor’s sports blog

The NBA Finals [v.2009-2010] tip off this evening in Los Angeles.

While Rounds 1, 2 and 3 have produced some fair-to-good basketball, this version of the Finals should prove to be an entirely different kettle of fish.

These 2 teams are quite evenly matched.

The Lakers, however, signed Ron Artest last summer for one reason only.

i.e. To have him defend either LeBron James or Paul Pierce in the NBA Finals. 

If Ron Ron does his job properly, from a physical standpoint, and can play Da Truth to a virtual stand-off, then … all else being equal … the Lakers will be hoisting another championship banner to the rafters when the 2010-2011 kicks off in the fall.

It really is as simple as that.

Enjoy what should be a real hum-dinger of a series!

Toronto Raptors 103
BOSTON CELTICS 116
Fri Nov 27 2009 - Game Summary

Feschuk: Raptors bow down meekly to Celtics 103-116
[excerpt #1]
“There’s no other way to say it – we just got punked,” said Antoine Wright, Toronto’s veteran swingman, a rare voice of outrage on a ho-hum club.

“We’ve got guys standing over our best player, flexing, and it’s not something we can stand for. I was pretty frustrated sitting on the bench watching their whole team run out there on the floor and we only had our coaches up shouting and screaming at their players. I don’t like that.”

Said Bosh: “Yeah, I’d like to see the team more passionate. I look at their bench and they’re all up standing at half-court, and nobody from their team was down on the floor. I think we would react better to just be out there for one another and just stay together.”

Wright and Bosh were on something of an island, it seemed. Jay Triano, the Toronto coach, didn’t register a qualm with his team’s reaction to Pierce’s technical; he said he “liked the way we fought back after that” – although the Raptors, down 17 points at the time, never got the Boston advantage below nine points. Jarrett Jack, who bent down to check on Bosh, pointed out that the play was clean, and that the Raptors had come to Bosh’s aid when Bosh tangled with Dwight Howard in a game against the Magic earlier this season.

Nobody was suggesting the Raptors should have brawled. But there’s no denying that Pierce’s dunk-and-pose was symbolic of Boston’s second-half manhandling of the soft visitors.

———————————–

When you look at the Full Play-By-Play of the 3rd Quarter … from the 8:00 mark until the end of the stanza … you should be able to see that Antoine Wright was on the court when this game changed for the worst, from the Raptors’ perspective, and did nothing to stem the tide with his own play.

———————————– 

Q1. How does a team which is soft Defensively, and in terms of Rebounding, increase its overall Toughness Quotient?

A1. Not by adding 9 new players to its roster that play the game like this:

with an existing group that looks like this:

High end teams in the NBA have a player roster which is filled with QUALITY DEPTH and several individuals that come ready-made with PHYSICAL TOUGHNESS.

In the immediate aftermath of Paul Pierce’s drive and dunk, in which he planted his knee directly into Chris Bosh’s groin area … it’s NO COINCIDENCE that the first two members of the Raptors’ contingent to forcibly express their displeasure were:

#1. Alex English [former NBA player, Hall of Fame Inductee]; and,

#2. Marc Iavaroni [former NBA player, 1981 World Champion, Philadelphia 76ers].

———————————–

[excerpt #2]
Wright, speaking to reporters before the game, criticized unnamed teammates for lax preparation in the wake of Wednesday’s 35-point loss in Charlotte: “You’ve got guys in here eating popcorn, joking around before the game. And we go out there and lose by 40. It’s a direct result of what’s going on before the game. Guys not coming in with the right mind frame.”

Those words appeared to resonate. Said Sonny Weems, the 23-year-old wing: “We do fool around a lot. And it tends to carry over into the game, and that’s something that needs to change.”

You’ll excuse Bosh, the seventh-year Raptor who has heard similar vows of vigilance before, if he exhaled through the post-game questions.

Said Wright: “We’ve got a lot of good players on this team but we’re going to have to come together or teams are just going to continue to run us over like this.”

Sighed Bosh: “I’m tired of talking about toughness. We talk about it too much. We talk about everything too much. We’ve got to stop talking about it and just do it.”

———————————–

Until the current Raptors’ Management Team understands the TRUE VALUE of Defense, Rebounding and PHYSICAL TOUGHNESS … for the High End teams in the NBA … Toronto will continue to be an also-ran.

Memo to Bryan Colangelo.

The time for Tough[ness] Talk has long since passed … if you want to re-sign Chris Bosh this summer and construct a championship calibre organization for the Toronto Raptors.

The ball is in YOUR court, once again.

The pertinent facts from this game?

1. The Raptors used their main rotation players for more minutes than the Celtics [Box Score].

2. The 3rd Quarter Play-By-Play.

3. Given the state of his physical condition at this stage of his recovery from off-season surgery on his right knee, expect to see Kevin Garnett check Andrea Bargnani this season … with Kendrick Perkins checking CB4 … when these teams face one another.

4. KPM’s for this game:

5. When they kick it into gear, the Celtics’ Rebounding [44-32] and Defensive/Offensive Efficiency [BOS: 0.99, 106 pts on 107 possessions; 0.99/Tor: 0.91, 90 pts on 99 possessions] numbers are superior to the Raptors. 

re: How an astute NBA observer might expect the first part of the schedule to unfold for the Raptors this year

Game 17 – at Boston [Fri Nov 27]

When healthy, this group of Celtics is too much for the Raptors to handle, with the only match-up advantage, in Toronto’s favour, deep on the bench.

Since the baseline 2005-2006 season …

these two teams have, in fact, gone in opposite directions in the Atlantic Division, with the Celtics re-asserting themselves as the dominant organization in the EC, on the whole, and the Raptors sinking back towards the bottom of the standings.

In sharp contrast to a large percentage of other Raptors fans, unfortunately, yours truly does not see this situation changing in the immediate future, given the different ways in which these two organizations operate.

Raptors expected W-L Record: L, 6-11

The 5 teams in the Atlantic Division finished in the following order last season:

1. Boston Celtics, 62-20/.756, 2nd East, Lost 2nd Round 
2. Philadelphia 76ers, 41-41/.500, 6th East, Lost 1st Round  
3. New Jersey Nets, 34-48/.415, 3rd East, Missed Playoffs
4. Toronto Raptors, 33-49/.402, 13th East, Missed Playoffs
5. New York Knicks, 32-50/.390, 14th East, Missed Playoffs

At this point in the off season, the teams have made the following player personnel changes:

BOSTON CELTICS
Significant Losses
1. Leon Powe [PF], UFA
2. Mikki Moore [PF-C], UFA
3. Stephon Marbury [PG]
4. Gabe Pruitt [PG-OG]

Significant Adds
1. Lester Hudson/2nd Round Draft Pick [No. 58, overall]
2. Rasheed Wallace, UFA
3. Sheldon Williams, UFA
4. Marquis Daniels, UFA

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
Significant Losses
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. Andre Miller [PG], UFA
3. Theo Ratliff [PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Elton Brand [PF], returns from injury
2. Jason Smith [PF-C], returns from injury
3. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
4. Jrue Holiday [PG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 19, overall]  
5. Rodney Carney [SF], UFA

NEW JERSEY NETS
Significant Losses
1. Vince Carter [SF-OG], trade
2. Ryan Anderson [PF], trade

Significant Adds
1. Terrence Williams [SF-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 11, overall]
2. Courtney Lee [OG], trade
3. Rafer Alston [PG], trade
4. Tony Battie [PF-C], trade

TORONTO RAPTORS
Significant Losses
1. Jason Kapono [SF], trade
2. Shawn Marion [PF-SF], UFA/Sign & trade
3. Kris Humphries [PF], trade
4. Nathan Jawai [PF-C], trade
5. Anthony Parker [OG-SF-PG], UFA
6. Joey Graham [SF], UFA
7. Roko Ukic [PG], trade
8. Carlos Delfino [SF-OG], trade

Significant Adds
1. Reggie Evans [PF], trade
2. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 9, overall]
3. Hedo Turkoglu [SF], Sign & trade
4. Antoine Wright [SF-OG], trade
5. Jarrett Jack [PG-OG], RFA
6. Marco Belinelli [OG-SF-PG], trade
7. Rasho Nesterovic [C-PF], UFA
8. Amir Johnson [PF], trade 

NEW YORK KNICKS
Significant Losses
1. Quentin Richardson [SF-OG], trade
2. Chris Wilcox, PF-C], UFA

Significant Adds
1. Danilo Gallinari [SF-PF], returns from injury
2. Jordan Hill [PF-C], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 8, overall]
3. Toney Douglas [PG-OG], 1st Round Draft Pick [No. 29, overall]
4. Darko Milicic [PF-C], trade
5. Sun Yue [PG], UFA

While several NBA observers seem to think the Raptors SHOULD be much improved this coming season, based on the wholesale changes made to their roster … this corner does not necessarily share that same opinion, when evaluated against the LOSSESS & ADDS of the other teams in their Division.

Q1. Have the Raptors improved, overall, from last season, relative to their competition?

A1. Maybe; maybe not … is the correct answer, at this point.

The Knicks and Nets are in re-building mode, and the Raptors SHOULD have been expected to finish this coming season in NO WORSE than 3rd place in the Atlantic Division, behind the Celtics and, possibly, the 76ers … even if they would have done “nothing” substantive to improve their team this summer.

However, given that doing “nothing” was in fact the OPPOSITE of what the Raptors decided to do this off season … i.e. see above … it SHOULD now be EXPECTED that this supposedly improved team SHOULD finish NO WORSE than in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division behind the Boston Celtics.

Once this expectation is established, what then becomes interesting is …

if the divisional standings eventually look something like this:

ATLANTIC
1 Boston
2 Toronto or Philadelphia
3 Philadelphia or Toronto
4 New York or New Jersey
5 New Jersey or New York

and the conference standings eventually look something like this:

SOUTHEAST
1 Orlando
2 Atlanta or Miami or Washington
3 Miami Atlanto or Washington
4 Washington or Atlanta or Miami
5 Charlotte

CENTRAL
1 Cleveland
2 Detroit or Chicago or Indiana
3 Chicago or Detroit or Indiana
4 Indiana or Detroit or Chicago
5 Milwaukee

and the playoff race eventually looks something like this:

Eastern Conference
1-2-3 Orlando - High End, Southeast
1-2-3 Cleveland - High End, Central
1-2-3 Boston - High End, Atlantic

4-5-6 Atlanta - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Miami - Upper Middle, Southeast
4-5-6 Washington - Upper Middle, Southeast

7-8-9-10-11-12 Detroit - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Chicago - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Indiana - Middle, Central
7-8-9-10-11-12 Toronto - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Philadelphia - Middle, Atlantic
7-8-9-10-11-12 Charlotte - Low End, Southwest

12-13-14-15 Milwaukee - Low End, Central
12-13-14-15 New York - Low End, Atlantic
12-13-14-15 New Jersey - Low End, Atlantic

indicating, perhaps, that the relative strength of each division may be shifting this season:

#1. Southeast
#2. Central
#3. Atlantic 

IF a scenario like this is eventually what plays out this season, then, how much will the Raptors really have improved this summer, relative to the other teams in their Division and the Eastern Conference, as a whole?

There’s a tonne of information on-line right now but this one, courtesy of John Schuhmman, is as sound and concise as any:

Position-by-position: Top 5 free agents
As we’ve seen in the NBA Draft over the years, the best strategy is usually to take the best player available. You never know how draft picks will turn out, so selecting the guy closest to a sure thing, even if you’ve already got a similar player on your roster, is often the prudent way to go.

In free agency, though, teams pretty much know what kind of player they’re getting. Teams have seen what these guys can do and are able to better evaluate what they’re capable of and what they can bring to their team.

So the next few weeks will be about finding the right fit, both on the court and on the payroll.

———-

By position, the following players are under-rated [#, indicates where they should be ranked] in this year’s Free Agent class, according to yours truly:

POINT GUARDS
* Ramon Sessions [#1]
* Jarret jack [#2]
* CJ Watson [#6]

OFF GUARDS
* Anthony Parker [#1]

SMALL FORWARDS
* None

POWER FORWARDS
* Antonio McDyess [#3]
* Brandon Bass [#7]
* James Singleton [#9]

CENTERS
* Johan Petro [#4]

FINAL SCORE: Raptors 101, PACERS 130
Complete Game Info

———-

Rarely in a NBA game will you see one team actually double the k-PER TOTAL of its Opponent; but, this is precisely what happened in last night’s Raptors at PACERS match-up.

Once again, the MAIN problem for Toronto was not the performance of their All-Star player, Chris Bosh … nor the play of Jose Calderon, although to a lesser extent last night, given the reduced MP he had overall in this game.

The core problem with the Raptors this season is the overall lack of Quality Depth on their player roster.

Bryan Colangelo [Pres/GM] will need to address the situation properly, by upgrading at least two positions in the 2009 NBA Draft and then acquiring two new NBA-level players who fit well around Bosh & Calderon, via trade or free agency, if the Raptors hope to become a playoff team in the Eastern Conference next season. 

FINAL SCORE: RAPTORS 110, Pacers 87
Complete Game Info

—————————————

When you look at the following Substitution Chart you should be able to see several things from this game:

* The game changed in favour of the Raptors at the 02:26 mark of the 2nd Quarter when the Pacers 2-pt lead was transformed into a 3-pt deficit.

* The Pacers’ offense fell apart mid-way in the 3rd Quarter [07:23 - 03:19], with the following list of Possession Outcomes:

Foster, Made 2 FTs
Jack, Missed J2
Ford, Missed J2
Time-out/Indiana [F]
Granger, Turnover
Ford, Made Driving Layup, plus 1 FT
Rush, Turnover
Jack, Missed Driving Layup
Granger, Missed J2
Jack, Turnover
Ford, Missed Driving Layup
Ford, Missed J3 

[i.e. 2-11/18.0%]

* The Raptors were +13 when they used at least 3 Solid Rebounders together:

Q2 12:00-09:36 +2
Q2 09:36-08:46 -2
Q2 02:34-02:26 +0
Q2 02:26-00:17 +5
Q3 03:19-02:03 +3
Q3 02:03-01:34 +2
Q3 01:34-00:00 +3

* Andrea Bargnani played 34:44 at the #5/C and was +18.

* Chris Bosh played 26:16 at the #4/PF position and was +12.
* Chris Bosh played 06:33 at the #5/C position and was +8.

* Shawn Marion played 23:33 at the #3/SF position and was +14.

* Joey Graham played 21:32 at the #/Sf position and was +8
* Joey Graham played 02:34 at the #2/OG position and was +5.

* Pops Mensah-Bonsu played 17:07 at the #4/PF position and was +16.
* Pops Mensah-Bonsu played 04:37 at the #5/C position and was -5.

* A change in a single Rebounding/Defensive match-up can have profound effects on specific possessions in a NBA game and play a significant role in determining the eventual Winner vs Loser.

While the Scoring Exploits of certain players receive plenty of public accolades, sophisticated NBA followers know the fundamental role played by specific combinations of players with the tenacity and physical ability needed to dominate an opponent in terms of Rebounding & Defense.

Such was the case in yesterday’s game, in which the Raptors annihilated the Pacers on the boards, 55-38 [+17], led by:

1. Chris Bosh, 13 [0.394/MP]
2. Joey Graham, 10 [0.417/MP]
3. Andrea Bargnani, 9 [0.257/MP]
4. Pops Mensah-Bonsu, 8 [0.364/MP]

There’s an interesting interview with Larry Bird on NBA.com today which gives his interpretation of the Pacers’ situation looking forward to this season and their future in the next few years ahead.

———————————–

NBA.com: What do you see as the No. 1 area of improvement for the Pacers this season?
Larry Bird: Obviously we have to get better on the defensive end. Last year we committed too many fouls and we didn’t defend the three-point shot. So overall our defense has to get better to win games. Offensively, we’ll score a lot of points. Defense was the problem last year. As far as the team goes, I think we did something in the draft to help us overall, and I think we solidified our point guard position with Travis [Diener],T.J., and Jarrett Jack so we’re very strong in that area right now.

NBA.com: How big of an impact will rookie Roy Hibbert have on the defensive end in the role of shot blocker, overall defensive presence?
Larry Bird: It’s always good to have a big guy in there. Without Jermaine last year we didn’t have that potential to block shots. With Roy in there he takes up a lot of space and even if we don’t block a lot of shots, you can get guys to shoot up over him and maybe distract them a little bit. I think it’s going to be a major plus for us. Obviously he’s a rookie and he’s got a lot of learning to do, but in the long run he’ll be fine.

NBA.com: Who is the team leader?
Larry Bird: I think it can be a couple guys. We’ve had some players around here just waiting for the opportunity to step in and I think now they’ll look at the training camp and go through and you’ll sort of see after a while who the players gravitate to.

———————————–

What’s of most interest to this corner is:

(1) The possible location of two former Raptors on Indiana’s current depth chart, i.e. TJ Ford and Rasho Nesterovic; and,

(2) The overall level of optimism Larry Legend has for the likes of Mike Dunleavy, Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, Roy Hibbert, et al., as a core group of players which the Pacers can build around over the next few seasons …

specifically, in comparison with the current roster of the Pacers’ trading partner in the deal they made this summer for Jermaine O’Neal.

———————————–

While most of the ‘2008-2009 NBA Season Forecasts’ these eyes have read, thus far, see the Pacers finishing toward the bottom of the Eastern Conference; and, the Raptors with a solid chance to finish in the top third of the EC … looking strictly at the rosters of these two teams, paints a very different picture in the mind of this NBA connoisseur.

Is it possible that the Raptors manage to navigate the entire NBA season without a significant injury to one [or more] of their key players [i.e. Bosh, O'Neal or Calderon]?

Yes it is.

If so … then, it is certainly possible to see how the Raptors might finish this campaign higher in the EC standings than the Pacers.

However, on the flip side … even if Toronto goes injury-free this year …

Is it also possible to see how this Pacers’ roster … with the Quality Depth it has … might, in fact, be able to generate just as many W’s this season as the Toronto Raptors?

Yes it is … if Larry legend is correct and the players he’s mentioned are indeed capable of stepping up their games to assume Leadership Roles with their team this season.

———————————–

From the perspective of this corner, these are just two of many teams in the EC that could realistically finish anywhere from #6-14 this season should the breaks go their way or not.

The Anatomy of Wins and Losses in the NBA:
Breaking Down Key Possessions

Game 19 - TOR 111 vs Ind (22-36) 122, L 12-7 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 18 - TOR 107 vs Min (11-43) 85, W 12-6 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 17 - Tor 102 @ IND (22-34) 98, W 11-6 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 16 - TOR 115 vs Nyk (17-38) 92, W 10-6 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 15 - Tor 99 @ NYK (16-38) 103, L 9-6 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 14 - TOR 127 vs Orl (34-21) 110, W 9-5 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 13 - TOR 109 vs Njn (22-30) 91, W 8-5 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 12 - TOR 88 vs Sas (33-17) 93, L 7-5 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 11 - Tor 105 @ MIN (10-38) 82, W 7-4 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 10 - TOR 98 v Lac (15-31) 102, L 6-4 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 9 - Tor 114 @ MIA (9-36) 82, W 6-3 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 8 - TOR 101 vs LAL (28-16) 121, L 5-3 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 7 - TOR 122 vs Was (24-19) 85, W 5-2 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 6 - Tor 104 @ WAS (23-19) 108, OT, L 4-2 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 5 - TOR 106 vs Mil (17-26) 75, W 4-1 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 4 - Tor 114 @ BOS (33-6) 112, W 3-1 … Boxscore 
Game 3 - Tor 95 @ PHI (15-25) 99, L 2-1 … Full Play-By-Play
Game 2 - TOR 89 vs Atl (17-18) 78, W 2-0 … Boxscore, Full Play-By-Play
Game 1 - TOR 116 vs Sac (15-21) 91, W 1-0

Record vs >.500 Opp: 3-3 (.500)
Record vs ≤.500 Opp: 9-4 (.692)

===============================================

Key Possessions which determined the W-L result:

Some NBA games are decided during a specific ’sub-set’ of possessions during the 3rd Quarter … like this one, when

(with Indiana’s 16-pt lead reduced to a single digit … TOR 73, Ind 74 … following Toronto’s 15-0 run)

03:37 … Ind/subbed Travis Diener (PG/Starter) back into the game for Kareem Rush (G), after a rest of only 01:12
03:24 … Ind/Diener, Fade Away Jump Shot: Made/8 PTS, Ast: Foster/3 (Ind 76, TOR 73)
03:09 … TOR/Bargnani, 3pt Shot: Missed
03:08 … Ind/Dunleavy, Rebound
02:50 … Ind/Graham, Jump Shot: Missed
02:49 … Ind/Daniels, Rebound (Off:2 Def:2)|TOR/Delfino, Foul:Personal (2PF)
02:40 … Ind/Dunleavy, 3pt Shot: Made/20 PTS, Ast: Graham/2 (Ind 79, TOR 73)

after which the Pacers were never seriously headed, again; maintaining at least a 4-pt margin for the rest of the game.

Key Raptors: Andrea Bargnani (0-1, FGA/00.0%; 0-1, 3FGA/00.0%; 2 Defensive Miscues: i. failed to ‘Step out’ quickly and ‘Switch’ vs Diener, who used the dribble hand-off 2nd screen in the staggerred sequence; ii. failed to rotate properly vs Mike Dunleavy, coming out of an ‘Elbow Pick & Roll’ with a ‘Trap/Sag & Rotate’ sequence); Carlos Delfino (2 Defensive Miscues: i. failed to ‘Box-out’ vs Marquis Daniels/O-Rb; ii. Foul/Marquis Daniels)

Vital Components:
- 4 Defensive Miscues by Andrea Bargnani & Carlos Delfino during this specific ’sub-set’ of possessions, plus 1 crucial Missed 3-pt Shot by Bargnani (in reply to Indiana’s successful ’set play’) … gave the Pacers an extra Offensive possession & allowed Indiana to score 5 consecutive points during this sequence, creating a 6-pt deficit from which the Raptors never recovered against an inferior opponent. 

Next Game:
The key stretch of 19 games for the Raptors is finished.