khandor’s sports blog

Despite what many Raptors fans might choose to think …

this evening’s tilt against the Bobcats is not a prime example of a game which Toronto SHOULD actually win this season.

Although Charlotte has struggled to score points on the road, thus far, they have split [i.e. 1-1] their 2 away games played against an opponent with a Team Defense that is actually as poor as the Raptors.

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Published Wagering Line

Open: Toronto -1/+100

Current: Toronto +1/-106 [as of 2:00 PM ET today]

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When push comes to shove in this specific game – in all likelihood - the Bobcats are going to be able to get enough stops to get the win outright … because their overall Team Defense is better, and the Raptors’ overall Team Defense is, in fact, so poor, which should allow Charlotte to score just enough points to succeed … due, primarily, to the individual match-up advantages which exist in their favour at:

i. The Starting OG, SF and PF positions;
ii. The Back-up SF and PF positions; and,
iii. The Head Coach position.

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PS. Of particular interest whenever the Bobcats come to town is the opportunity to watch Derrick Brown go to work, in-person, at the SF [and, sometimes, PF] position – as one of Charlotte’s Key Subs off the bench - since he was one of the handful of players recommended in this space, prior to the 2009 NBA Draft, for the Raptors to select, instead of DeMar DeRozan [OG/SF],

i.e. With the 9th pick of the 2009 NBA Draft, the Toronto Raptors …

Oh, my … what might well have been the case for the Raptors, since then, if they would have only followed that specific advice and come away from that draft night with 2 [or more] solid young rotation players like D-Brown and Marcus Thornton.

Prior to last night’s proceedings, these 15 individuals were identified by this corner as players who could have given the Toronto Raptors what they need, at this moment in time, heading towards a long term future [A] with or [B] without Chris Bosh:

Perception vs Reality – Who SHOULD Raptors Draft?

Al-Farouq Aminu [6-9, 215, SF/PF, Wake Forest, now unavailable]
Tyreke Evans [6-6, 219, PG/OG, Memphis]
DeMar DeRozan [6-7, 220, OG/SF, USC]
Earl Clark [6-10, 226, PF, Louisville]
Derrick Brown [6-8, 225, SF, Xavier]
Terrence Williams [6-6, 213, OG, Louisville]
Wayne Ellington [6-5, 202, OG, UNC]
Danny Green [6-6, 208, OG/SF, UNC]
Sam Young [6-6, 223, SF, Pittsburgh]
Marcus Thorton [6-4, 194, OG, LSU]
Tyler Hansbrough [6-9, 234, PF, UNC]
Taj Gibson [6-10, 214, PF, USC]
Dante Cunningham [6-8, 227, PF/SF, Villanova]
Tyler Smith [6-6, 212, OG, Tennessee, now unavailable]
Nando De Colo [6-5, 190, OG, France]

This is what happened last night with each of those 15 players::

- Al-Farouq Aminu. Withdrew from consideration; back to Wake Forest.
- Tyler Smith. Withdrew from consideration; back to Tennessee.

- Tyreke Evans. SACRAMENTO/No. 4, selected by Geoff Petrie.

- DeMar DeRozan. Player the Raptors/No. 9 wanted all along.

- Earl Clark. PHOENIX/No. 14, selected by Steve Kerr.
- Derrick Brown. CHARLOTTE/No. 40, selected by M-Jordan/L-Brown.
- Terrence Williams. NEW JERSEY/No. 11., selected by R-Thorn/K-Vandeweghe.
- Wayne Ellington. MINNESOTA/No. 28, selected by David Kahn
- Sam Young. MEMPHIS/No. 36, selected by Chris Wallace. 
- Danny Green. CLEVELAND/No. 46, selected by Danny Ferry.
- Marcus Thorton. MIAMI/No. 43, selected by Pat Riley [traded to New Orleans-Jeff Bower/Byron Scott].
- Tyler Hansbrough. INDIANA/No. 13, selected by Larry Bird.
- Taj Gibson. CHICAGO/No. 26, selected by J-Paxson/G-Forman.
- Dante Cunningham. PORTLAND/No. 33, selected by Kevin Pritchard.
- Nando De Colo. SAN ANTONIO/N. 53, selected by RC Buford/G-Popovich.

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1. Over the next few seasons, it is going to be most interesting to watch the development of these 15 players.

2. The Charlotte Bobcats [37-45] are gradually building a very solid team:

* Adding Gerald Henderson [OG] and Derrick Brown [SF] last night
* Trading for Boris Diaw [PF-SF], Raja Bell [OG], Vladimir Radmanovic [SF-PF] and DeSagana Diop [C} last season
* Drafting DJ Augustin [PG] & Alex Ajinca [C} last year
* Re-signing Gerald Wallace [SF-PF] last year
* Re-signing Emeka Okafor [C-PF] 2 years ago

3. There’s a very good reason the same names keep popping up when the Larry O’Brien Trophy is awarded, in June, to the NBA Champions.

Update:

* Marcus Thorton has subsequently been traded to the New Orleans Hornets in exchange for two future 2nd Round Draft Picks [i.e. 2010 & 2012].

will most likely select one of the following 6 players:

1. DeMar DeRozan [OG-SF]
2. Gerald Henderson [OG-SF]
3. Jrue Holiday [PG-OG]
4. Jonny Flynn [PG]
5. Jordan Hill [PF]
6. James Johnson [SF-PF] 

according to Bryan Colangelo [GM].

[PLEASE NOTE: This is a link to a radio interview from Jun 17, 2009 which every Raptors fan should listen to, as it deals with Thursday's NBA Draft, the acquisition of Reggie Evans and the team's POV re: Chris Bosh.]

From the perspective of this corner, however, by doing so … they will, once again, be throwing away another golden opportunity to build their team into a legitimate long term contender for a Top 4 spot in the Eastern Conference, by not trading down to a Middle or Lower Spot in the 1st Round, while acquiring an additional pick in the 2nd Round, in a classic two-for-one scenario.

Q1. Why does this year’s Draft qualify as such an occasion?

A1. Because the players who fit best with what Toronto needs right now, as well as looking down-the-road a piece … possibly, to a life without Chris Bosh … are not perceived by others to be worthy of selection in the No. 9 position but will most likely be available in the Middle or the Lower section of the 1st Round, and/or in the 2nd Round.

Draft preview: Closer look at the small forwards

Derrick Brown is a player with a tonne of NBA ability, at the Wing position, who should be there for the Raptors in the Middle of the 1st Round.

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Xavier’s Brown has been coming on the last few weeks, benefitting from long arms (a 7-2 1/2 wingspan) good workouts up and down the first round, and the pedigree of bigs that Xavier has produced for NBA teams, including Brian Grant, Aaron Williams, Tyrone Hill, James Posey and David West. He’s active — “bouncy,” one personnel man says.

“Sometimes, kids get better and I think he’s one of the kids that’s grown with the process,” said a Northwest Division executive. “He’s been able to expand his game a little bit and show some of the things he couldn’t show at Xavier.”

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Derrick Brown would fill their need for an immediate ”starter” who can score the ball, rebound his position and defend with solid athleticism and considerable length.

For the number crunchers …

Q2. When you look at these simple game stats, what do you see?

A2. A player who shot 43.3% from behind the arc last season … shooting three times as many treys than the year before [in which he shot three times as many as he did his first year in college] … scored at a solid rate of 1.42 PPS [i.e. higher than DeMar DeRozan and Tyreke Evans], and improved his Ast:TO each of his 3 seasons at Xavier University.

[PLEASE NOTE: Players who are capable of doing THIS, and reach the point where their ratio is above 1.00 have a HIGH Basketball IQ.]

In conjunction with his outstanding Wingspan, his solid vertical & lateral agility scores, his ability to do THIS:

on a regular basis, and the fact that he conducts himself like THIS:

when dealing with the media in a first-class way … say that this young man, Derrick Brown, “Is ready” to play in the NBA, right away.

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When you couple a player like Derrick Brown with a:

Taj Gibson [late 1st Rounder, early 2nd Round, Horace Grant type]
Dante Cunningham [late 1st Rounder, early 2nd Round, James Worthy type]
Danny Green [2nd Round, Bruce Bowen type]
Marcus Thornton [2nd Round, Mitch Richmond type], or
Nando De Colo [2nd Round, Manu Ginobili type]

you are talking about a serious increase in FIRST-CLASS athletic ability and NBA skill level that can immediately elevate the Quality Depth on the Raptors’ roster to the point where they could contend with the likes of Boston and Cleveland and Orlando, etc., in the not-too-distant future, either:

A. If Chris Bosh re-signs with their team; 

OR,

B. If Chris Bosh is traded [for comparable parts] and Andrea Bargnani continues to improve, as their Center, moving forward from that point.

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The ball’s been placed in Bryan’s Colangelo’s hands … for the sake of loyal Raptors fans everywhere … let’s hope that he doesn’t drop it, again.

Related:

Perception vs Reality – Who should Raptors draft?

Welcome to the 2009 edition of ‘Match the Stats’ [re: Raptors' possible draftees].

This is your friendly DraftMaster, khandor.

Now … Whoooooooooo’s ready to play?

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The names of 15 players who at one time this spring were eligible for Thursday’s [June 25] NBA Draft:

Nando De Colo [6-5, 190, OG, France]
Earl Clark [6-10, 226, PF, Louisville]
Terrence Williams [6-6, 213, OG, Louisville]
Marcus Thorton [6-4, 194, OG, LSU]
Tyreke Evans [6-6, 219, PG/OG, Memphis]
Sam Young [6-6, 223, SF, Pittsburgh]
Wayne Ellington [6-5, 202, OG, UNC]
Danny Green [6-6, 208, OG/SF, UNC]
Tyler Hansbrough [6-9, 234, PF, UNC]
Tyler Smith [6-6, 212, OG, Tennessee, now unavailable]
DeMar DeRozan [6-7, 220, OG/SF, USC]
Taj Gibson [6-10, 214, PF, USC]
Dante Cunningham [6-8, 227, PF/SF, Villanova]
Al-Farouq Aminu [6-9, 215, SF/PF, Wake Forest, now unavailable]
Derrick Brown [6-8, 225, SF, Xavier]

The 1st year statistics for these 15 players, at the college level, in random order.

Your assignment comes in two parts:

PART ONE
Rank the individual stat lines [according to their assigned number in the left-hand column] in the specific order which you feel best addresses the Raptors’ needs.

[e.g. 1st - No. 14, 2nd - No. 5, 3rd - No. 1, 4th - No. 7, etc.. Account for all fifteen.]

PART TWO
Match the individual stat lines [according to their assigned number in the left-hand column] with the correct Player’s Name from the list of fifteen provided above.

[e.g. 1st - No. 14; Tyreke Evans; 2nd - No. 5; 3rd - No. 1, Al-Farouq Aminu; 4th - No. 7, Tyler Hansbrough, etc.. Account for all fifteen.]

Once complete … you will then be ready to enter the Raptors’ War Room on Thursday night with your own version of ‘Raptors Match the Stats’:

[which should look something like this]

[NOTE: Interested persons are invited to submit their own version of 'Raptors Match the Stats' in the "comments" section.]

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According to NBA.com’s 2009 NBA Draft: Consensus Mock Draft, the players most likely to be selected by the Raptors are Tyreke Evans or DeMar Derozan, each of whom was a college freshman this past season. Do you think these two players actually have the individual stat lines that Best Fit what the Raptors need from this year’s pool of draftees?

Go ahead and play ‘Match the Stats’ … and, you will soon find out!

The answer might surprise you.

[or, maybe not ... depending on what your impression is of the Raptors' Draft Record, in the Bryan Colangelo era.]

From David Aldridge …

Draft preview: Closer look at the shooting guards

From a Raptors’ perspective

If Toronto can successfully trade down from the No. 9 slot, in exchange for a Lower 1st Round Pick and, in the process, pick-up an additional 2nd Round Selection … one Marcus Thornton,

i.e. scored 30 in the NCAAs against Butler and has an NBA-ready body that has scouts comparing him, physically, with a Mitch Richmond.

“He’s a volume scorer,” says one scout. “He’s a little bit wild, a little streaky. When he gets going you can’t stop him. he’ll get six, seven buckets in a row on you quick, from all kinds of distances. But he needs a lot of shots to get a lot of points. A very poor man’s Ben Gordon.”

who is a Top Flight NBA prospect, as a shooter/scorer, in the mold of  Richmond, Gordon, and, yes, Ray Allen, may still be there for them. 

Those who think that Marcus Thornton might struggle scoring at the next level might also be in for a big surprise.

PART I
Bryan Colangelo could succeed in re-signing Shawn Marion to a reasonable contract extension this summer?

PART II
Bryan Colangelo could trade down from the No. 9 position in the 2009 NBA Draft … in exchange for a lower 1st Round selection and an additional 2nd Round selection

PART III
Bryan Colangelo buys an additional pick in the lower section of the 1st Round [i.e. $3.0 M acquired in the trade with Miami this past season].

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Here might be one plausible scenario for other Raptors fans to consider:

With Chris Bosh [#1] they are set at the Starting C position [please envision him at 6-10, 250, once he reaches 27 years of age].
With Jose Calderon [#2] they are set at the Starting PG position.
With the combination of Shawn Marion [#3] & Reggie Evans [#8] they are set at the PF position.

With Anthony Parker [#6] they are set at the Back-up PG/OG position.
With Joey Graham [#7] they are set at the Back-up SF position.
With Andrea Bargnani [#9] they are set at the Back-up C position.

With Roko Ukic [#10] they are set at the Back-up-to-the-Back-up PG position.
With Carlos Delfino [#11] they are set at the Utility Guard-Wing position.
With Kris Humphries [#12] they are set at the Utility Big Man position.
With Marcus Banks [#13] they are set at the Extra Guard-Wing Position.
With Patrick O’Bryant [#15] they are set at the Back-up-to-the-Back-up C position.

#4 – the Starting SF position then gets filled by the traded down for 1st Round pick [e.g. Derrick Brown?].

#5 – the Starting OG position then gets filled by the additional 2nd Round pick acquired thru the trade down [e.g. Marcus Thornton or Nando De Colo?]

#14 -the Extra SF-PF position then gets filled by the bought 1st Round pick [e.g. Taj Gibson or Dante Cunningham?]

… in which case there might be no need to trade [A] Chris Bosh or [B] Andrea Bargnani this summer, with the following line-up:

STARTERS
Jose Calderon, PG
Marcus Thorton [or Nando De Colo], OG
Derrick Brown, SF
Shawn Marion, PF
Chris Bosh, C

KEY ROTATION SUBS
Anthony Parker, PG/OG
Joey Graham, SF [or Carlos Delfino, OG/SF]
Reggie Evans, PF
Andrea Bargnani, C

SITUATIONAL/EXTRA PLAYERS
Roko Ukic, PG
Marcus Banks, PG/OG
Carlos Delfino, OG/SF [or Joey Graham, SF]
Taj Gibson [or Dante Cunningham], SF-PF
Kris Humphries, PF/C
Patrick O’Bryant, C

Bold – New Athletic Young Player added via 2009 NBA Draft
Bolded Italics – New Veteran Player added via trade this off season
Italics – Existing Player shifted to a different role this season

heading into training camp for the 2009-2010 season … provided that Quincy Douby, Pops Mensah-Bonsu, Jake Voskuhl and Nathan Jawai are each given their release.

Could THAT team of 15 players eventually become a legitimate threat to contend for a Top 4 playoff spot in the Eastern Conference by the end of next season? … at which point Andrea Bargnani will be due to have his contract extended and Chris Bosh will be in a position to opt out of his existing contract, in a move toward unrestricted free agency.

Hmmmm ….

It just might.