khandor’s sports blog

Neil Paine has now published an extremely interesting blog entry:

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Most Personnel Turnover Between Seasons

Here are the (non-expansion) clubs since 1965 who gave the smallest % of their minutes to players who had been on the roster the previous season:

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which indicates that, since 1965:

i. There have been 30 teams change at least 64.0% of their player roster from the previous season … based on Total Minutes Played;

ii. The “Average Win Total” for these teams is approximately 30 per season [i.e. .366];

and,

iii. Only 7 of these 30 teams [i.e. 23.3%] have finished with more than 41 wins [i.e. .500+] the following season.

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As you can tell from the comment [#3] submited by yours truly:

it would be very interesting to see what the results of Neil’s inquiry might yield, in terms of subsequent W-L records, if the parameters for examination were to be altered slightly, i.e. from a minimum change of 64.0% to >50.0%. 

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As far as the current edition of the Toronto Raptors is concerned …

These very simple stats might actually come into to play, if Bryan Colangelo [President/GM] is eventually able to trade Jose Calderon + 1 of either Reggie Evans, or Marcus Banks, this off season:

… which would, then, push next year’s team into the “>50.0% change” category.

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PLEASE NOTE: According to Neil’s research … of the 4 teams in the “>50.0% change” category from the 2009-2010 season - i.e. Toronto, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Detroit - only 1 finished the year with more than 41 wins [i.e. 1/4 = 25.0%]; while, the “Average Win Total” for these teams was a rather paltry 32 games [i.e. 128/328 = 39.0%].
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Going forward from this point …

Which player[s] should become the new face[s] of the Raptors franchise?

If the primary long term objective is to win as many NBA championships as possible then the correct answer is quite simple.

PART I

Basketball is a game with 3 distinct phases.

i. Defense - i.e. When your opponent has possession of the ball.

ii. Rebounding - i.e. When neither team has possession of the ball.

iii. Offense - i.e. When your team has possession of the ball.

In the grand history of the NBA, the best teams in the league have consistently been built with multi-dimensional players, as the key foundation pieces.

PART II

Which player[s] on the Raptors’ current roster:

is someone who displays a high degree of proficiency in at least 2 of the 3 main phases of the game, without also being abysmal in the 3rd component?

Answer this exact question properly … and, it will tell you who, if anyone, on the Raptors SHOULD become the new face[s] of the franchise.

[NOTE: 1. R - Rookie. 2. The above classifications are based on accumulated Basketball Acumen. For the benefit of those who need to rely on game stats to make an accurate assesment of these things, feel free to peruse the available information at Hoopdata which pertains to these players. ]

Unfortunately, you might not end up liking what you will find.

As presently constituted …

* There is no Low-Post scoring Big Man on the roster.

* There is no Low-Post scoring Forward or Guard on the roster.

* Without a Low-Post scoring Big Man on the roster, there will be far less room for perimeter-based shooters to find uncontested shots, in half-court offensive situations.

* To a large extent, 4th quarter scoring in the NBA is driven by the main offensive players on a team who are capable of commanding a double-team from the defense. The Raptors have no such player[s] on their roster.

* To a large extent, consistent 4th quarter scoring in the NBA is reliant upon a team’s ability to generate easy points [i.e. high efficiency scoring opportunities] from the Foul Line. The Raptors have no players on their roster with the ability to generate large numbers of Free Throw Attempts in the 4th quarter.

* In half-court offensive situations there are few-to-no players with the ability to “break down” their individual defender off the dribble - without the benefit of a pick - in order to penetrate the perimeter of the defense and create easy scoring opportunities for their teammates.

* There are too many players with negative career Assist-to-Turnover Ratios who will need to play major minutes.

* The Raptors were a poor Points Allowed team last season and have added no experienced players this off season who should be capable of scoring more points themselves than the number of points which they will be responsible for allowing to their opponent, while still being adequate performers at the offensive end of the floor.

* The Raptors were a mediocre-to-poor rebounding team last season and have added no experienced players this off season who should be capable of securing more rebounds themselves than the number of rebounds which they will be responsible for allowing to their opponent, while still being adequate performers at the offensive end of the floor.

* While the Raptors have lost their best player from last year [i.e. Chris Bosh/C-PF], many of their opponents in the Eastern Conference have not and, in fact, have added other quality players to their roster this off season:

MIAMI HEAT, 5th place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Wade/D
Add - James/L, Bosh/C, Miller/M, Ilgauskas/Z and Howard/J
Lose - O’Neal/J, Richardson/Q, Wright/D and Beasley/M

ORLANDO MAGIC, 2nd place
Noteworthy:
Add - Duhon/C and Richardson/Q
Lose - Williams/J and Barnes/M

ATLANTA HAWKS, 3rd place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Johnson/J
Add - Larry Drew and Powell/J [?]
Lose - Mike Woodson

BOSTON CELTICS, 4th place
Noteworthy:
Retain - Pierce/P, Allen/R and Robinson/N
Add - O’Neal/J
Lose - Thom Thibodeau, Wallace/R and Allen/T

MILWAUKEE BUCKS, 6th place
Noteworthy:
Retain: Salmons/J
Add - Maggette/C, Douglas-Roberts/C, Gooden/D and Brockman/J
Lose - Ridnour/L, Bell/C, Gadzuric/D and Jackson/D

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS, 7th place
Noteworthy:
Retain: Thomas/T
Add - Dampier/E, Najera/E and Carroll/M
Lose - Felton/R and Chandler/T

CHICAGO BULLS, 8th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Thom Thibodeau, Boozer/C, Korver/K and Watson/CJ
Lose - Vinny Del Negro, Hinrich/K and Miller/B

INDIANA PACERS, 9th place
Noteworthy:
Add - George/P and Stephenson/L
Lose - None

NEW YORK KNICKS, 10th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Stoudemire/A, Randolph/A, Turiaf/R, Fields/L and Jordan/J
Lose - Lee/D, Harrington/A and Duhon/C

DETROIT PISTONS, 11th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Monroe/G
Lose - Brown/K 

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS, 12th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Doug Collins, Nocioni/A, Hawes/S, Battie/T [?] and Turner/E
Lose - Dalembert/S

NEW JERSEY NETS, 15th place
Noteworthy:
Add - Avery Johnson, Outlaw/T, Farmar/J, Morrow/A and Favors/D
Lose - Kiki Vandeweghe, Douglas-Roberts/C, Boone/J and Jianlian/Y

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PLEASE NOTE:

Although the Raptors just finished the Las Vegas Summer League with a 5-0 record, this performance was achieved without Andrea Bargnani [C] playing a single minute beside some combination of DeMar DeRozan, Sonny Weems, Ed Davis and Solomon Alabi … which is a fact the team’s basketball brain-trust WOULD DO WELL TO KEEP IN MIND, as the 2010-2011 season unfolds.

Related:

The Architecture of the Raptors

Can Toronto Overcome the Loss of Chris Bosh

When you read the following article:

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Magic match Bulls’ offer sheet to retain Redick

The decision drives the Magic deeper into the luxury tax and gives them one of the NBA’s highest payrolls at about $93 million next season. The move keeps Orlando’s roster mostly intact as the Magic hope continuity will overcome Miami’s All-Star trio and Boston’s Big Three in the Eastern Conference.

“When it came down to it, when we’re talking about what we’re trying to do here, it came down for me to pedigree, DNA, things that most people don’t think about,” Orlando general manager Otis Smith said. “It was less about the money for me, being the basketball guy, and more about keeping a guy around that we’ve had in our organization for the past four years.”

The decision was ultimately made by ownership.

Because Redick was a restricted free agent, Orlando had seven days to match the contract. Billionaire owner Rich DeVos and team president Bob Vander Weide took all seven days to make the move that nearly doubles Redick’s salary from last season.

Teams have to pay a dollar for every dollar they are over the luxury tax, which the league set at $70.3 million for next season. The tax hit is based on the roster at the end of the season, meaning it’s likely the Magic could make trades before then to lessen the financial burden.

Orlando should find relief in a new downtown arena that opens this year and creates new revenue streams. Smith also believes a roster that remains one of the deepest in the league is attractive for potential moves and doesn’t mortgage the Magic’s future.

“The fact that we have players that other teams want makes you pretty flexible,” Smith said. “Is it possible to give out contracts and move a little bit less money? Sure. My thing is you don’t want to take a step back with talent.”

At the very least, keeping Redick assures that.

The former Duke standout was the 11th overall pick in the 2006 draft. He struggled early in his NBA career but has become a significant contributor for the Magic.

So much so that Smith decided that Redick and recently signed small forward Quentin Richardson(notes) had more value than Matt Barnes(notes), who became a free agent after one season with Orlando. Smith said he never offered Barnes a deal and all but ruled out the small forward returning next season.

“It really came down to out of those three, which of the two do we bring in?” Smith said. “We like what Matt brought to the table, but sometimes you have to make decisions that’s best for your club long-term.”

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and, are then made aware of the following information:

EASTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS

2003-2004, 2004-2005, 2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2007-2008, 2008-2009 and 2009-2010

TRANSACTIONS

Orlando vs Toronto

Isolating the performances of the Raptors and the Magic:

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what you should be able to see is that both of these respective franchises have, in FACT, had a legitimate opportunity to build a first-class operation … starting from a lower tier position in the league 7 seasons ago; and, which has included the hiring of a new GM, along the way … focused on being able to compete for a NBA championship in the not-to-distant future.

To this point, however, only one has made significant head-way … and, a key question going forward for the other, then, becomes:

How many of the players expected to be on their roster next season actually fit into the “Just Winners” category, based upon their experience in the game, thus far?

Unfortunately for the Raptors, the correct answer, according to these eyes, is … quite possibly … as few as 3. 

According to Rick Bonnell [Inside The NBA], the hang-up in the proposed trade between Charlotte and Toronto isn’t a case of cold feet on the part of the NBA’s most notorious ’stone-cold assassin’ but, rather, a case of unrealistic financial expectations on the part of the former two-time recipient of the league’s EOTY Award:

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So, if this trade ever happens …

– The problem, I’m told, is Toronto general manager Bryan Colangelo’s financial expectations. I don’t know if that literally means cash or whether he’s demanding another team take a bad contract off his payroll.  But at the end of the day, Colangelo wants to make this work. It’s now so public, it would be hard to stuff the genie back in the bottle. Chandler and Evans already consider themselves exes with their former teams.

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Could it be that the proposed trade which Michael Jordan and Bryan Colangelo had originally agreed to was in fact not what has been reported to-date:

To Phoenix
- Hedo Turkoglu [from Toronto]

To Toronto
- Boris Diaw [from Charlotte] and Tyson Chandler [from Charlotte]

To Charlotte
- Jose Calderon [from Toronto], Dwayne Jones [from Phoenix, via Toronto] and Reggie Evans [from Toronto]

but, instead, this one:

To Phoenix
- Hedo Turkoglu [from Toronto]

To Toronto
- Boris Diaw [from Charlotte] and Tyson Chandler [from Charlotte]

To Charlotte
- Jose Calderon [from Toronto], Dwayne Jones [from Phoenix, via Toronto], Reggie Evans [from Toronto] and Marcus Banks [from Toronto]

which involves an additional player with a perceived to be ‘bad contract’ for the Raptors? … and, the distinct possibility that the Bobcats principal owner has, thus far, refused to take this on, given the viable alternative[s] at his disposal [i.e. one of which is outlined above].

While there should be no doubt that Adrian Wojnarowski is a credible writer/reporter/journalist for Yahoo! Sports, i.e. Jordan holding up Raptors trade … given his body of work to-date … so, too, is it the case that Rick Bonnell fits into a similar category for the Charlotte Observer … given a similar examination … and that sometimes two highly respected people can, in fact, simply see the exact same events in two very different ways with neither party really being described accurately as an out-right liar.

Indeed, it will be very interesting to see how this whole situation is eventually resolved and which of these two respective parties - i.e. Bryan Colangelo or Michael Jordan - is more inclined to accede to the demands of the other.

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PS. Contrary to what many so-called NBA ‘experts/observers’ realize, success/failure in the cutthroat world of pro sports is determined to a large extent by the ability of one participant to productively assert their/his ‘collective will’ over that of an opponent, in a head-to-head matchup.

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Update:

From a Raptors perspective, it can be highly informative to also read a solid blog - and the related comments - associated with another team which Toronto is thought to be in the process of doing business with, or, quite possibly, not.

Those calling for Bryan Colangelo to be dismissed, as the GM for the Raptors, are delusional.

What the Raptors - and Bryan Colangelo - NEED to do, however, at this point in time, is implement a fundamental PARADIGM SHIFT … in the way that their basketball operation conducts its business, by prioritizing the objective of TRYING TO WIN MULTIPLE NBA CHAMPIONSHIPS through the gradual construction of a top notch player roster that is filled with solid “NBA level talent” [i.e. in terms of specific skill sets and athleticism] and a proven coaching staff.

As wrong as each of Bryan Colangelo’s major personnel moves have been, thus fas, in his tenure as the Raptors’ GM, the fact is …

1. He finally did the RIGHT THING … by failing to making any trades this season at the Trade Deadline;

and,

2. He is finally now saying the RIGHT THING … as far as [i] properly managing the expectations for the team heading into next season AND [ii] assessing accurately just how far away this current collection of players is from actually being able to compete successfully for a Top 4 playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, in the not-too-distant future …

provided that he is NOW willing to:

A. Keep Chris Bosh/C;

B. Exceed the Luxury Tax Threshold;

and,

C. Trade Andrea Bargnani/C, in exchange for a solid, veteran wing player with good size, NBA athleticism, and a commitment to sound defensive play and rebounding.

To wit:

Andrea Bargnani Trade Proposal

What this specific trade would accomplish …

OPTION 1

From a Raptors’ perspective:

Keeping Bosh would be Step 1.

Trading Bargnani for Battier + Taylor would be Step 2.

- it would rid the team of a defensive albatross
- it would add a 3rd string PG to play behind Calderon and Banks
- it would add a solid wing defender/rebounder with good size to go with the younger tandem of DeRozan and Weems

Step 3 would then involve trading Hedo Turkoglu.

Step 4 would then involve trading Jarrett Jack.

Step 5 would then involve keeping Amir Johnson.

Step 6 would then involve selecting another future rotation player with the 2010 1st Round Draft Pick.

The Raptors would then be moving forward with the following group of players:

1 Chris Bosh, C
2 Amir Johnson, PF
3 Shane Battier, SF
4 DeMar DeRozan, OG
5 Jose Calderon, PG

6 New Player #1 [obtained via trade for Turkoglu]
7 New Player #2 [obtained via trade for Jack]
8 Sonny Weems, OG-SF
9 Marco Belinelli, OG-PG
10 Jermaine Taylor, PG
11 Marcus Banks, PG
12 2010 1st Round Pick
13 New Player #3 [FA signed to replace Antoine Wright]
14 Reggie Evans, PF [or New Player #4, obtained via trade for Reggie Evans]
15 Rasho Nesterovic, C [re-signed for the veteran's minimum]

Patrick O’Bryant would not be re-signed.
Joey Dorsey would not be re-signed [or, he would replace Reggie Evans].

==============================

From the Rockets’ perspective:

1. Bargnani could play Center for them, if Yao Ming isn’t ready to go at the start of next season.

2. Bargnani could be used as Yao Ming’s offensively oriented back-up off the bench, if the big fella is ready to start the season.

3. Bargnani could be used at the PF position, beside Yao Ming, if the big fella is ready to start the seaon, and the Rockets want to go with a twin towers line-up.

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NOTE: In every situation, Morey would need to play Bargnani with solid positional defenders in order to compensate for Il Mago’s deficiency in this area. Morey is smart enough to pull that off.
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OPTION 2

The same as Option 1, above, except … the Raptors would simply elect to keep Hedo Turkoglu.

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What would the 2010-2011 roster then look like for the Raptors?

The more time an astute NBA observer actually spends looking at the depth chart involved with OPTION 2, the more this observer should then begin to see a variety of different possibilities which would be quite a positive development for the Raptors … moving forward … as a team that finished in the No. 9 position this season [especially if Bryan Colangelo can also get a future protected 1st Round Draft Pick included in the trade with Houston].

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Despite what some might think, yours truly is firmly in the Raptors’ corner and of the belief that the pro hoops franchise in Toronto has ALWAYS been just a few RIGHT moves away from being able to develop into one of the premier organizations in the entire NBA.

According to Toronto Sports Media 20 “local and well-known NBA observers” were contacted, directly via email, and asked to give a one word answer [i.e. either "yes" or "no"], in confidence, to a straight-forward question concerning:

Toronto Raptors Should Let Chris Bosh Go

“Your [sic] the Toronto Raptors, assume you can sign Bosh at the maximum- would you do it?”

Apparently,

17 respondents said, “NO.”
3 respondents said, “Yes.”

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These are very interesting facts.

In response …

These are 2 comments which yours truly submitted earlier today to the Toronto Sports Media.

Enjoy!

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1st Comment, April 19, 2010, 8:20 AM

2nd Comment, April 19, 2010, 8:34 AM

There’s an old adage in the world of sport that goes something like this:

“You should never, ever, take solace in the mis-fortune of your opponent.”

… because:

i. It’s simple not the right way to live your own life;

ii. The “Sporting Gods” do NOT shine their favour on those who fall prey to this affliction;

iii. The “Sporting” Gods do shine their favour, however, on those who focus on what they CAN DO themselves to give their own team the best chance of winning. Period.

In general, this is a tried and true philosophy which makes a great deal of sense … when it comes to NOT taking any solace in the mis-fortune that can sometimes befall AN OPPONENT.

As far as the Raptors are concerned, however …

This adage HAPPENS NOT TO APPLY … when the misfortune, in question, actually be-falls a player on YOUR OWN TEAM!

To wit:

Yes, the Raptors are about to take the court this evening against the Bulls, as a battered and bruised team.

EXhibit A

Chris Bosh/PF is out of the Raptors’ line-up indefinitely while recovering from facial fractures he sustained this past week, against Cleveland. This fact hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

Exhibit B

Hedo Turkoglu/SF is in the line-up for this evening’s game, but with a protective mask on his face his face to guard against incurring further damage to his own broken nose, sustained this past week, against Boston. Since Turkoglu simply hates wearing a protective mask on his face, this fact also hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

Exhibit C

Amir Johnson/PF … who replaced Chris Bosh in the Raptors’ Starting Line-up against Atlanta … is playing in this evening’s game, but with a slightly sprained ankle which he incurred during the 2nd half. This fact hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

Exhibit D

Jarrett Jack/PG … their solid Back-up to Jose Calderon … is playing in this evening’s game, but with a slightly sprained ankle/foot which he also incurred during the 4th quarter against Atlanta. This fact hurts the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight.

But, all hope is far from lost for the Raptors, as …

Exhibit E

Antoine Wright/SF-OG … their defensive specialist at the wing positions and the primary back-up to Turkoglu and Sonny Weems … is out of the line-up indefinitely with a severely sprained right ankle which he incurred during the 4th quarter against Atlanta. This fact HELPS the Raptors’ chances for a W tonight … in a major way.

Huh? … What’s that you say?

It’s impossible to have a 5th injured player from a team’s regular rotation out of the line-up completely for a do-or-die, quasi-elimination game … and, somehow, believe that HIS ABSENCE will actually help his team get a W in that game.

Well, you know what?

NOT IN THIS INSTANCE!

If the Raptors are forced to use a tight 8-Man rotation which looks like this:

it says here that Toronto WILL WIN TONIGHT’S GAME AGAINST THE CHICAGO BULLS …

because using Antoine Wright, as a defensive specialist … when he isn’t very good on defense, to begin with, AND is absolutely horrid on offense, MOST of the time … is actually a huge detriment to the Raptors ever being able to win any game against a decent-to-good opponent when their team could instead be giving his PT to:

a. Sonny Weems, or
b. Hedo Turkoglu, or
c. DeMar DeRozan, or
d. Marco Belinelli,

at the same time as it is also giving increased PT to Amir Johnson [i.e. an athletic rebounder/defender] and Rasho Nesterovic [i.e. a non athletic rebounder/defender].

The fact is … not having Antoine Wright in the line-up tonight is a HUGE CASE of “Addition by Subtraction”, in favour of the Raptors.

At some point, the days eventually begin to run together, in Raptorville.

The same problems occur from one season to the next and, seemingly, never ever get fixed properly.

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Feschuk: Listless Raptors puzzle GM Colangelo

“I’ve got a lot of suspicions, I guess, of what’s gone wrong. It hasn’t been the same since the all-star break,” Colangelo said. “Too many guys came back from the break with a different approach. And that’s the part that’s troubling. … It’s not a talent issue. And it’s clear that the right message is being delivered (by the coaching staff). But the students have to carry out the agenda. And it’s got to be a team agenda. It can’t be an individual agenda.”

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Is removing Jose Calderon from the starting line-up, once again, really going to solve their on-going problems at the defensive end of the floor?

Chisholm: Triano sending the wrong message

Is removing DeMar DeRozan from the starting line-up, for the first time this season, really going to be the catalyst for a substantive change in the way that this team approaches the business of rebounding and being able to fight back when things don’t quite go according to plan, in a given quarter, half, or game? … as other legitimate contending teams have always done in the history of the NBA.

Is asking Chris Bosh [i.e. the team's best player, by a wide margin] … the same question, again, and again:

“What’s wrong with you guys?”

really going to illicit a pearl of wisdom that, if said out loud to the reporters in a post practice/game media scrum, is going to miraculously change the culture which exists within their locker-room?

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The reality of the Raptors’ current situation is this:

1. Once the trade deadline has passed, there is very little that can be done to fundamentally alter the personnel on a team’s roster.

2. Firing their head coach makes little sense, given that he was hand-picked by the GM to run the day-to-day operation only 9 months ago, and the organization is still paying the salary of its former head coach [i.e. Sam Mitchell], who was fired in December of last season.

3. The team’s defensive woes have NOT been rooted in the mediocre-to-poor play of Jose Calderon, who is comparable … as a less-than stellar individual defender with a solid offensive game … to 6 of the other starting Point Guards for the Top 15 teams in the league [i.e. see the chart below].

4.  The team’s defensive woes have NOT been rooted in the mediocre-to-poor play of DeMar DeRozan, who is the most effective Off Guard on their roster, given the individual short-comings of Antoine Wright, Sonny Weems and Marco Belinelli, none of whom are comparable to the starting players for the Top 15 teams in the league [i.e. see the chart below].

5. The most significant difference between Toronto’s starting line-up and the Top 15 teams in the league is at the Center position.

6. Opposite to what Bryan Colangelo might actually think:

* TENACITY is, in fact, a most valuable TALENT in the NBA … since every player does not have it in the same quantity;

and,

* The wrong message is, in fact, being sent whenever a NBA team uses an offensively focused player as its starting Center … while it does not also have a DOMINANT, multi-dimensional, Small Forward in its best Group of 5.

7. If Chris Bosh is, in fact, the best player on your team, by a wide margin, and Jose Calderon is, in fact, the best offensively focused Point Guard, and Hedo Turkoglu is, in fact, the best offensively focused Small Forward, then you simply CANNOT HAVE have another offensively focused player as your starting Center … if you want your team to exhibit the type of TENACITY that’s required to fight back from adverse situations which occur in NBA games. 

8. Andrea Bargnani is the player who NEEDS to be removed from the team’s starting line-up, if Toronto is going to turn around its lost season.

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PS. FYI, the stats shown here for TS%, DEF and TReb are from hoopdata.com.

Now that they have finally managed to end their recent stretch of bad play, with their improbable come-from-behind home court victory, on Wednesday, vs Atlanta …

i.e. According to Matt Devlin [the Raptors' television play-by-play announcer], in games where the Hawks had led during the final 3 minutes of the 4th quarter], their W-L record had been 41-4 …

QUESTION
What should the Raptors’ expectations be for their next 3 games?

ANSWER
- Win vs Oklahoma City, Fri Mar 19 [2nd W in a row]
- Win at New Jersey, Sat Mar 20 [3rd W in a row]
- Win at Minnesota, Mon Mar 22 [4th W in a row]

… provided they:

1. Continue to sit out Antoine Wright [as their 5th Wing];
2. Give only limited PT to Reggie Evans [as their 5th Big];
3. Give only limited PT to Marco Belinelli [as their 4th Wing; and, 3rd PG];
4. Increase the PT for Sonny Weems [as their 3rd Wing];
5. Increase the PT for DeMar DeRozan [and, specifically, use him to finish games, as their 2nd Wing ... beside either Hedo Turkoglu/1st Wing or Weems/2nd Wing];
6. Continue to start Jose Calderon [as their main PG];
7. Completely eliminate the Calderon+Jarrett Jack [as their 2nd PG] line-up;
8. Increase the PT for Amir Johnson [as their 3rd Big];
9. Decrease the PT for Andrea Bargnani [as their 2nd Big]; and,
10. Increase the PT for Chris Bosh, at the Center position [as their 1st Big].

At this point in the season, and given the relative position of the other teams in the Eastern Conference Standings … if Toronto continues to use an 8-man rotation which looks like this:

STARTERS
Calderon + DeRozan + Turkoglu + Bosh + Bargnani [or Johnson]

KEY SUBS
Jack, Weems and Johnson [or Bargnani]

RESERVES
Banks, Belinelli, Evans and Nesterovic

EXTRAS/OUTS
Wright and O’Bryant

… there is no legitimate reason, whatsoever, for this Raptors team to fail to make the playoffs.