khandor’s sports blog

Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: 

the picture produced is somewhat different.

Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:

* MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];

* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,

* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].

An accurate understanding of what exactly is going on these days in Raptorville is not arrived at easily for many of the team’s rabid fans who are active participants in the on-line hoops community. Amidst the general euphoria that has taken hold in the aftermath of last week’s seemingly stunning 4-team trade extravaganza with Dallas, Orlando and Memphis … which netted the Raptors:

* Hedo Turkoglu [F, Orlando, UFA]
* Antoine Wright [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season]
* Devean George [G-F, Dallas, expiring contract this coming season], and
* Preserved their right to use the Mid Level Exception [MLE], the Low Level Exception [LLE], and exercise their [Larry] Bird Rights towards resigning their own Unrestricted Free Agents [UFA]

at the expense of:

* Shawn Marion [Sign & Trade with Orlando, UFA]
* Kris Humphries [trade with Dallas; injured much of last season]
* Nathan Jawai [trade with Dallas; disabled much of last season]
* 2nd Round Draft Pick/2016 [trade with Dallas]
* Cash Considerations [trade with Dallas] 

The stark reality of this team’s current situation is perhaps best reflected in the bright lights of the following 5 observations:

PART ONE
The post-trade outlook for the Raptors which was first put together by “Dave” [nbaroundtable, Thu July 9], extolling the possible virtues:

Where do the Raptors go from here?

PART TWO
The specific comment which “Dave” then left in a different thread on his blog, later that same afternoon, indicating his actual thoughts on their chances to succeed with their current roster configuration:

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Four team trade: Shawn Marion to Dallas
2011/12

This is the Raptors fail safe option. When they fail, and they will fail, they need to have this option open to them and then use this option.

This means no extra contracts that last beyond two years. I will dislike pretty much any contract that goes beyond two seasons. As long as the contract is than two seasons, spending that money doesn’t bother me in the slightest.

Dead End

The Raptors are going nowhere, and they need a miracle to happen for this plan to have any chance of working out. The Raptors are going to run into [sic] dead end.

Now, it’s time just to sit back and let things play out. Things will not improve until Colangelo figures out Bargnani isn’t a cornerstone of this franchise … until that happens, there’s nothing else that can be done to put the Raptors on the right road.

The Raptors can’t get out of the corner that they’ve boxed themselves into, until Bargnani is moved on. Any aspirations for a title are on hold until this happens.

———-  

PART THREE
The specific comment which was made on this blog [July 11, 11:35 AM], by yours truly, that addressed the supposed “Qualitative Improvement” of the Raptors current roster pieces in comparison with last season’s end-of-year squad, pertaining to the question of:

———-

Which team made out best from 4-team trade?
IMO, the Raptors have made upgrades in certain areas thus far but it would be a mistake in judgment to assess this improvement as being “a lot better“, just yet:

No BEFORE ADV AFTER

1 Calderon = Calderon
2 Parker <– Wright … AP is significantly better
3 Marion = Turkoglu … Turkoglu is NOT significantly better
4 Bosh = Bosh
5 Bargnani = Bargnani
—————————-
6 Ukic = Ukic
7 Kapono –> DeRozan * … cyclical due to draft
8 Graham = George … Devean is NOT significantly better
9 Humphries = Evans … Reggie is NOT significantly better
10 O’Bryant –> Nesterovic … Rasho is much better!
—————————-
11 Douby = Delfino … is different but NOT much better
12 Mensah-Bonsu = Mensah-Bonsu
—————————-
13 Banks = Banks
14 Jawai ? Barnes … jury still out on Nathan
15 Voskuhl = O’Bryant

Those who are looking at these changes in an excessively positive light are the ones looking through rose-coloured spectacles.

———-

PART FOUR
The Shifting Player Personnel Chart that was constructed by yours truly yesterday:

which shows the drastic player changes that have happened with the Raptors for each of the past two seasons. 

PART FIVE
The glaring RED ALERT that was issued on Sunday by David Berri [i.e. noted economist, NBA "sage & soothsayer", author of The Wages of Wins Journal]:

Dashing Hope in Toronto
Not a Pretty Picture in Toronto

When we put the whole picture together, it appears the Raptors will employ the following starting line-up in 2009-10: Calderon (PG), Wright and/or DeRozan (SG), Turkoglu (SF), Bosh (PF), Bargnani [C].  Last season the NBA veterans in this line-up combined to produce fewer than 30 wins. So unless these players improve dramatically, or the team finds very productive players off the bench, it’s hard to see how this team improves dramatically.  And that’s true even if Delfino returns to Toronto (although if Evans returns to what we saw in the past there might be some hope this team can get past 40 wins).

All of this means that

1. Turkoglu will be seeing much more money in 2009-10, but probably far fewer wins.
2. Bargnani will also see much more money, but it seems unlikely he is ever going to produce many wins.
3. Bosh will see even more money after this next season, but if the Raptors don’t approach 45 or 50 wins (which seems likely) then it seems unlikely that the money Bosh is paid in the future is going to be paid by the Raptors.
4. So it looks likely the Raptors record performance in 2007-08 will stand for awhile.  In other words, if Bosh departs this team in 2010, then rebuilding will probably continue beyond 2009-10.
5. And this means — assuming the Raptors don’t make any major change to this team — the fans of the Raptors will keep paying money to see a team that’s not contending for a title.

———-

Experience says that when disparate individuals like:

1. “Dave” [nbaroundtable] … who combines statistics with Basketball Acumen;

2. khandor [that's me ] … who relies primarily on Basketball Acumen;

and,

3. David Berri … who relies heavily on a statistical approach to the analysis of on-court production for players in the NBA;

actually arrive at a similar conclusion … which is essentially opposed to the GENERAL CONSENSUS that exists in Raptorville today … it portends of difficult times ahead for this team in the coming season.

In the best interests of the franchise, let’s hope that all three of these “stray birds” are eventually proven to be wrong in their assessment of the team. 

FINAL SCORE: Raptors 101, PACERS 130
Complete Game Info

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Rarely in a NBA game will you see one team actually double the k-PER TOTAL of its Opponent; but, this is precisely what happened in last night’s Raptors at PACERS match-up.

Once again, the MAIN problem for Toronto was not the performance of their All-Star player, Chris Bosh … nor the play of Jose Calderon, although to a lesser extent last night, given the reduced MP he had overall in this game.

The core problem with the Raptors this season is the overall lack of Quality Depth on their player roster.

Bryan Colangelo [Pres/GM] will need to address the situation properly, by upgrading at least two positions in the 2009 NBA Draft and then acquiring two new NBA-level players who fit well around Bosh & Calderon, via trade or free agency, if the Raptors hope to become a playoff team in the Eastern Conference next season. 

FINAL SCORE: RAPTORS 110, Pacers 87
Complete Game Info

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When you look at the following Substitution Chart you should be able to see several things from this game:

* The game changed in favour of the Raptors at the 02:26 mark of the 2nd Quarter when the Pacers 2-pt lead was transformed into a 3-pt deficit.

* The Pacers’ offense fell apart mid-way in the 3rd Quarter [07:23 - 03:19], with the following list of Possession Outcomes:

Foster, Made 2 FTs
Jack, Missed J2
Ford, Missed J2
Time-out/Indiana [F]
Granger, Turnover
Ford, Made Driving Layup, plus 1 FT
Rush, Turnover
Jack, Missed Driving Layup
Granger, Missed J2
Jack, Turnover
Ford, Missed Driving Layup
Ford, Missed J3 

[i.e. 2-11/18.0%]

* The Raptors were +13 when they used at least 3 Solid Rebounders together:

Q2 12:00-09:36 +2
Q2 09:36-08:46 -2
Q2 02:34-02:26 +0
Q2 02:26-00:17 +5
Q3 03:19-02:03 +3
Q3 02:03-01:34 +2
Q3 01:34-00:00 +3

* Andrea Bargnani played 34:44 at the #5/C and was +18.

* Chris Bosh played 26:16 at the #4/PF position and was +12.
* Chris Bosh played 06:33 at the #5/C position and was +8.

* Shawn Marion played 23:33 at the #3/SF position and was +14.

* Joey Graham played 21:32 at the #/Sf position and was +8
* Joey Graham played 02:34 at the #2/OG position and was +5.

* Pops Mensah-Bonsu played 17:07 at the #4/PF position and was +16.
* Pops Mensah-Bonsu played 04:37 at the #5/C position and was -5.

* A change in a single Rebounding/Defensive match-up can have profound effects on specific possessions in a NBA game and play a significant role in determining the eventual Winner vs Loser.

While the Scoring Exploits of certain players receive plenty of public accolades, sophisticated NBA followers know the fundamental role played by specific combinations of players with the tenacity and physical ability needed to dominate an opponent in terms of Rebounding & Defense.

Such was the case in yesterday’s game, in which the Raptors annihilated the Pacers on the boards, 55-38 [+17], led by:

1. Chris Bosh, 13 [0.394/MP]
2. Joey Graham, 10 [0.417/MP]
3. Andrea Bargnani, 9 [0.257/MP]
4. Pops Mensah-Bonsu, 8 [0.364/MP]

When this corner of the sports blogosphere told you earlier this fall/summer that the Raptors trade for Jermaine O’Neal was not going to be enough, by itself, to fundamentally improve Toronto’s Rebounding Deficiency from the last few seasons there were boatloads of delusional fans some who did not want to believe this specific assessment of this team, in advance of actually seeing real live NBA games this season with their own two eyes.

—————–

How could the acquisition of a former 6-time NBA All-Star …

in exchange for a smallish, erractic [but talented] Point Guard [i.e. TJ Ford], an over-the-hill, lumbering, strictly speaking part-time Center [i.e. Rasho Nesterovic], the 15th player from their roster last season [i.e. Maceo Baston], and a flip-flop of the No. 17 [overall] and No. 41 Draft Picks from the 2008 NBA Draft, who turned out to be Roy Hibbert [C] and Nathan Jawai [C], respectively …

possibly NOT improve the Raptors decidely mediocre rebounding numbers from the last few years in any significant way, shape or form?

—————–

Well … as of Thursday, November 6, 2008 the Basketball Acumen of this specific correspondent seems to be as sharp [and accurate] as ever:

[Statistics from NBA.com]

When a certain NBA observer tells you something about ‘How the Game actually Works in this League’, in advance … it might well be in your best interests to believe what this person has to say, even though you are not able to fully comprehend it, at that point in time.

—————–

“The proof of the pudding is in the eating.” – Anonymous

In the aftermath of their trade with the Raptors, Pacers’ President of Basketball Operations, Larry Bird, expressed his feelings about the type of Leadership he is looking for with his current team.

——————————————-

Bird says team poised to fill leadership void
“Just because you make the most money doesn’t mean you’re the leader,” Bird said last month. “A lot of guys didn’t want to step on toes. Not only here, but other places I’ve been at. They’d say, the guy makes the most money, that means he’s the leader. That’s not the case. The leader comes from the guy doing the right thing, the guy that’s going to be there every day at practice, the guy that plays through pain without complaining. They do the necessary things to prepare themselves.

“I think the situation you have here, you had one guy making a lot of money and everybody just took it as he’s going to be leading us, and in some instances that was true. But I think more now that since it has opened you’ll see a number of guys stepping up.

“Really, you just need one voice. Usually your best leaders are ones that don’t say anything, they just play, prepare and do the right things.”

——————————————-

Well, today … it says here that Larry Legend has now got his man …

Broken teeth, not broken spirit
“As professional athletes, we’ve bled throughout our careers,” he said. “We’ve broken bones, torn ligaments, busted teeth. It’s part of the game. It’s kind of fun when you do it, and you actually win.”

Granger’s refusal to leave the game after the collision impressed his teammates and coaches.

He made the play with the Pacers ahead by 16 in the fourth quarter. He stayed in the game.

“That one play epitomized what we want from our leaders — toughness, refusing to get knocked out of the game because you’ve lost your choppers,” Pacers coach Jim O’Brien said. “That was just great.”

——————————————-

After a period of significant upheaval, the Pacers have now righted their ship … at last … and will be in playoff contention this season.

The sort of quotes which make a keen NBA Observer scratch his head and say, “Hmmmmmmm.”

——————————————-

Star dimming, O’Neal sees brighter days in Toronto

1. re: Jermaine O’Neal’s physical condition

O’Neal admits as much, directing most of the blame at his left knee. He had surgery to repair a cartilage tear the summer before last season, and was on the floor for opening night. By mid-January, however, O’Neal felt like he was playing on one leg. Tired of crunching Advil – “12 a day,” he claims – he sought the advice of a couple specialists and shut down for the next 2½ months. He returned for the final two weeks, and the Pacers finished one win shy of claiming the Eastern Conference’s last playoff berth.

Because neither O’Neal nor the Pacers wanted to further diminish his trade value, “we didn’t really want to speak much about my injuries,” he said. “Whenever it got to the point where I had to sit out, we just had to call it something else. But over the last 2½ years, that knee was the issue.”

i.e. O’Neal had surgery on his injured left knee 2 summers ago, not this past season or during this current off-season.

2. Jermaine O’Neal’s mind-set

There were other issues, not all of them external.

“Mentally, I was just worn out,” he said. “When you get to that point, you just kind of lose that fire.”

3. re: probability & what to worry about

“Bryan Colangelo isn’t dumb; he didn’t trade for an injured player,” said one Eastern Conference scout. “Jermaine will probably dedicate himself this season. He quit on Indiana. I guess if there’s anything to worry about, it’s that he could always do the same in Toronto.”

——————————————-

Based on the following observations:

* Jermaine O’Neal is not coming back from an injury he sustained this past season
* Once a NBA player ‘loses his fire’, rarely does he ever get it back
* Jermaine O’Neal is perceived to have ‘quit’ on the Indiana Pacers

it is simply not a given that the Raptors are actually going to get their money’s worth this season, and next, from the trade which brought them Jermaine O’Neal and cost them TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, Maceo Baston & the No. 17 Selection [overall] from the 2008 NBA Draft, which the Pacers used to choose Roy Hibbert [C, Georgetown], in exchange for the #41 Pick, Nathan Jawai [C/PF, Australia] who is still inactive at this point with a suspected heart condition.

[Note 1: O'Neal missed his first 'in-game' action with the Raptors this season, on Tuesday, sitting out the 2nd Half of their exhibition loss vs the Nuggets, due to a 'sore right leg'.]

In general, David Aldridge’s review is an unbiased evaluation of the transactions made by all 30 teams in the NBA, since the end of the 2007-2008 season, when the Boston Celtics were crowned League Champions.

——————————————

Ranking the off season moves
PROJECTION: If you think the oft-injured O’Neal has a lot left, the Raptors made a great trade. Pairing O’Neal and Chris Bosh down low gives Sam Mitchell a lethal inside presence, one that will pay off with open looks for the likes of Jason Kopono and Anthony Parker and Calderon and Andrea Bargnani, and make Toronto a force in the Eastern Conference.

If you don’t think O’Neal has much left, the Raptors aren’t going to do much better next season than they have the previous two-going out early in the playoffs-even though Calderon is ready to take over the point full-time and Toronto has shooters that many other teams would love to have.

The guess here is that O’Neal isn’t the player he once was, but may not have to be playing alongside Olympian Bosh. And if Bargnani, the former first pick who took a noticeable and decided step backward in his second pro season, doesn’t get back on track, whatever O’Neal has to give won’t matter much anyway.

——————————————

Although this corner does not agree with a number of Mr. Aldridge’s specific assessments … this ↑↑↑ entry is a ruthless slap in the face for mis-guided Raptors faithful who may think their team’s acquisition of Jermaine O’Neal, in isolation, was amongst the most substantial moves made this off season across the NBA.

Unlike the Boston Celtics [28] , San Antonio Spurs [27], Cleveland Cavaliers [23], Phoenix Suns [22] and LA Lakers [21] … generally considered to be included in the top tier of teams in the NBA … the Toronto Raptors finished last season with a .500 record and have been eliminated swiftly from the playoffs each of the past two years.

Given the quality of moves made by other outfits in the Eastern Conference this summer, in relation to the Raptors, it is simply not a given that the Dinos are going to make the playoffs this season, and be able to maintain their present status as one of the up-and-coming teams in the NBA.

As the NBA’s pre-season continues to move forward, it becomes increasingly interesting to evaluate some of the Draft Night transactions which involved young men who had yet to play a single game in the NBA and were deemed by certain GM’s to be valuable building blocks for their respective franchises, or not.

Such is the case for Roy Hibbert [C, 7-2, 278, 2008 NBA Draft, No. 17 (overall) Selection].

——————————————-

Hibbert shows he can score
Hibbert, the No. 17 pick in last summer’s draft, had his best offensive game of the preseason, scoring 17 points against the Grizzlies on Monday.

“We really like Roy,” Pacers coach Jim O’Brien said. “He works his heart out. He knows how to put the ball in the basket around the basket. We couldn’t be happier with Roy right now.”

Hibbert came out of Georgetown labeled as being primarily a defensive player. Hibbert will help the Pacers defensively — he had three blocked shots against the Grizzlies — but he’ll also offer more. He had nine rebounds in 23 minutes.

——————————————-

Time will tell just how effective Roy Hibbert is eventually going to be, in the NBA … but if this corner’s assessment proves to be correct, he is destined to have a long and productive career, as a ‘Robert Parrish-esque’ player, i.e. no fuss-no muss, consistent on both ends of the floor, plays within himself at all times, Rock Solid Big … following in the grand tradition of Patrick Ewing, Dikembe Mutumbo, Alonzo Mourning and [to a far lesser extent] Othella Harrington.

Of further intrigue, at least, to this corner, is the fact that he was acquired on Draft Night by a GM like Larry Legend [of all people ], as part of the Pacers’ trade with the Raptors … i.e. Jermaine O’Neal + the 2008 NBA Draft No. 41 (overall) Selection [Nathan Jawai], in exchange for TJ Ford [PG] + Rasho Nesterovic [PF/C] + Maceo Baston [PF].

5 years from today … it is going to be very interesting to assess where the Raptors have gone, in the interim, with the front-court players they have right now … i.e. Chris Bosh, O’Neal, Andrea Bargnani, Kris Humphries, Nathan Jawai & Jamal Sampson … in comparison with the Pacers [i.e. Rasho Nesterovic, Jeff Foster, Troy Murphy, Austin Croshere, Josh McRoberts, Maceo Baston & Roy Hibbert].

It says here … that Larry Bird has his Center for the next 10-15 years, and the Pacers are but one or two more moves away from returning to the EC playoffs on a consistent basis.

——————————–

UPDATE:
* A 2nd set of solid numbers for Roy Hibbert
Box Score: Pacers 100, Mavericks 93 [Wed Oct 15 2008].

Since the Jermaine O’Neal trade was first announced, this corner has said repeatedly that this move alone was NOT going to solve the Raptors’ REBOUNDING problem … which occurs when they play against a high calibre opponent with as much or more ‘athleticism’ at the 5 positions on the floor, in comparison with Toronto’s line-up.

When this current collection of Raptors matches-up with a team like this current group of 76ers … what you’re going to get, more often than not, is a ‘Board Deficit’ like you saw in yesterday’s encounter:

Box Score: Philadelphia 85, Toronto 79

There are specific ways to effectively address a team’s REBOUNDING problem … when it’s the type of problem the Raptors have had for the last two years … but, one of them is NOT:

* To trade your team’s 2nd best Rebounder [who is also your best Low Post Defender, i.e. Nesterovic]
* To include a flip-flop of 1st & 2nd Round Draft Picks [which turns out to be ... THEY get Roy Hibbert; YOU get Nathan Jawai!!!]
* To include your back-up PG in the deal [Ford]
* To include a throw-away Big from the end of the bench [Baston]
* Plus, decide to let another throw-away Big from the end of the bench to walk for nothing [Brezec]
* Plus, decide to let a useful player like Carlos Delfino walk away for nothing
* Plus, decide to let a VERY useful player like Jorge Garbajosa do the same

… in exchange for adding:

* Either inexperienced and/or marginal players like Jawai, Roko Ukic, Hassan Adams, and Will Solomon
* Plus, a veteran player like Jermaine O’Neal, who is returning from a series of leg injuries.

That ^^^, right there, is like making a 7 for 4 deal, where …

Toronto Loses: Nesterovic + Ford + Hibbert + Baston + Brezec + Delfino + Garbajosa

and

Toronto Adds: O’Neal + Jawai + Adams + Solomon

[strictly speaking Ukic cannot be included amongst the additions since his rights already belonged to the Raptors]

in which 5 of the 6 players who you know already can play effectively in the NBA, in some capacity, are going the other way … while you are getting ‘the best player’, overall … but, who you can only HOPE is going to regain his effectiveness coming off his most recent injury.

THAT ^^^, right there, is a BAD TRADE.

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By trying to make a ‘blockbuster’ trade this summer … instead of simply moving TJ Ford for a back-up, serviceable, Wing player like Rodney Carney … and promoting Calderon to the starter’s position … and, THEN, holding onto Nesterovic, Delfino & Garbajosa, until further notice … what the Raptors have done now is, in fact, ROLL THE DICE big time that they do not pick up any sort of serious injury to Bosh, O’Neal or Calderon, and can survive these next two years with their current line-up intact, while not dropping down into the #9-12 spots in the EC, where they would be a DEFINITE ‘treadmill’ team … i.e not good enough to make the playoffs and not bad enough to get a high NBA DRAFT Lottery Pick anytime soon … waiting for the 2010-2011 season when they will once again have some wiggle room under the Salary Cap/Luxury Tax Threshold to add/subtract players to/from their roster.

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Which, in turn … given the Raptors’ current player roster … is part of the reason they SHOULD think long and hard, right now, about:

* Removing Anthony Parker from their starting line-up
* Shifting Jamario Moon to the #2-spot
* Inserting Joey Graham into the starting line-up
* Using AP as the primary back-up PG/OG, coming off the bench
* Removing Jermaine O’Neal from the starting line-up
* Inserting Kris Humphries into the starting line-up, as the partner for CB4
* Using O’Neal [PF] and Bargnani [C] together, as the Bigs with their 2nd Unit
* Using Jason Kapono for instant offense off the bench, as a spot player on the Wing with either the 1st or 2nd Units, at a later point in the game when the situation dictates
* Using a system of higly structured set plays which would allow limited offensive players like Graham, Moon, Humphries, and Bargnani to function at their maximum level of efficiency by only shooting ‘designated’ shots …

and, thereby, create a better balanced rotation for this Raptors’ team, which accounts for and integrates the areas of Rebounding, Defense and Team Offense.

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Then, again … this corner could always be proven wrong about this … over the course of time.