khandor’s sports blog

Yet another reason to like the job which Otis Smith [GM] has done, thus far?

NBA Countdown: No. 8 Orlando Magic
Reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in 14 years and second in franchise history was a wonderful accomplishment for the Orlando Magic-but there was no guarantee a championship would follow.The Magic will go into the 2009-10 season determined to defend their Eastern Conference title but looking different than when they won it. Yes, they still have All-Star center Dwight Howard as their foundation and high-priced Rashard Lewis (who’s suspended the first 10 games of the season after testing positive for an elevated testosterone level) shooting 3-pointers, but the Magic changed their late-game, go-to guy by switching from Turkoglu to Carter.

It’s why general manager Otis Smith didn’t take any bows, or even take the time to catch his breath.

And it’s also why he made one of the boldest moves of the summer, changing his carefully crafted team chemistry by trading for All-Star Vince Carter and letting go of free agent Hedo Turkoglu, a key player in Orlando’s recent rise.

“You can’t stand still in this league,” Smith said. “If you do, you’ll be going backward.”

The Magic also added free agents in power forward Brandon Bass from Dallas and small forward Matt Barnes of Phoenix. They even added point guard Jason Williams, who last played during 2007-08 with the Heat. Surprisingly, they kept backup center Marcin Gortat by matching the offer sheet Dallas gave him.

With the Celtics adding Rasheed Wallace and the Cavaliers trading for Shaquille O’Neal, the Magic tried to keep pace with the other serious contenders in the East.

“There are less than seven teams every year that really are trying to win a championship in our league,” Smith said. “Those three (in the East) are trying to win now, as opposed to saying ‘We’re OK where we are. Let’s stay the status quo.’”

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Otis Smith was hired by the Magic on May 6, 2006.

This is what the team’s roster looked like on that day:

Augmon, Stacey F
Battie, Tony PF-C
Cato, Kelvin C
Diener, Travis PG
Dooling, Keyon G
Francis, Steve G
Garrity, Pat PF
Hill, Grant G-F
Howard, Dwight C
Kasun, Mario C
Morris, Terence PF
Nelson, Jameer PG
Outlaw, Bo PF
Stevenson, DeShawn G
Turkoglu, Hedo F

This is what it looks like today, 41 months later:

Almond, Morris G
Anderson, Ryan PF
Barnes, Matt F
Bass, Brandon PF
Carter, Vince G-F
Foyle, Adonal C
Gortat, Marcin C
Howard, Dwight C
Johnson, Anthony PG
Johnson, Linton F
Lewis, Rashard F
Nelson, Jameer PG
Pietrus, Mickael G-F
Redick, JJ G
Williams, Jason PG

This is Orlando’s record of performance, since that date:

2008-2009
59-23/.720, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, NBA Finalist 
2007-2008
52-30/.634, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 2nd Rd
2006-2007
40-42/.488, 3rd Atlantic, 8th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

This was their record of performance the season before Smith arrived:

2005-2006
36-46/.439, 3rd Atlantic, 10th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

3 full seasons into his tenure with the Magic, Otis Smith should be considered as one of the best GM’s in the NBA.

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By way of comparison, for the benefit of Raptors fans, this is what Toronto has accomplished under the direction of Bryan Colangelo [2-time NBA EOTY award recipient] during this same time-frame:

2005-2006 Roster [Feb 28 2006]
Araujo, Rafael PF
Bonner, Matt PF
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
Davis, Antonio PF-C
Graham, Joey F
James, Mike PG
Martin, Darrick PG
Peterson, Morris G-F
Sow, Pape PF
Villanueva, Charlie F
Williams, Eric G-F
Woods, Loren C

2009-2010, Current Roster
Banks, Marcus G
Bargnani, Andrea C
Belinelli, Marco G-F
Bosh, Chris PF-C
Calderon, Jose PG
DeRozan, Demar G-F
Douby, Quincy G
Evans, Reggie PF
Jack, Jarrett G
Johnson, Amir PF
Nesterovic, Rasho PF-C
O’Bryant, Patrick C
Turkoglu, Hedo F
Weems, Sonny G-F
Wright, Antoine G-F

Year #1-3
2008-2009
33-49/.402, 4th Atlantic, 13th Eastern Conference, No Playoffs
2007-2008
41-41/.500, 2nd Atlantic, 6th Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd
2006-2007
47-35/.573, 1st Atlantic, 3rd Eastern Conference, Lost 1st Rd

Year Prior
2005-2006
27-55/.329, 4th Atlantic, 1st Eastern Conference, No Playoffs

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In the NBA, the cold harsh reality is that there are only 2 distinct tiers of teams:

Tier 1
Those few that are actually trying to win the League Championship.

Tier 2
Everybody else.

Much R.E.S.P.E.C.T. to Otis Smith for “cutting to the chase” and improving the Orlando Magic each season, thus far.

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Matching-up the Raptors’ current roster with the end-of-season version for the 2008-2009 campaign, on a position-by-position basis, looks like this:

While it’s relatively easy to see how other NBA observers can feel that the Raptors have increased their Perceived Talent Level [PTL] by a substantial amount this off season, when a comparative eye is then cast further backwards, to the previous year [2007-2008]:

and, ultimately, to the watershed 2006-2007 season: 

the picture produced is somewhat different.

Reviewing ALL 3 of these comparisons, at-once, it would be more accurate to say that the current roster has:

* MORE talent than the 2008-2009 version [33 wins];

* SLIGHTLY MORE talent than the 2007-2008 version [41 wins]; and,

* SLIGHTLY LESS talent than the 2006-2007 version [47 wins].

FINAL SCORE: Raptors 109, BULLS 98
Complete Game Info

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Earlier this season, Scott G., an astute NBA observer with a backgound in the game as a former university player, asked if this corner might be able to unearth some more information about what was casually referred to here as The Jason Kapono Effect on this year’s Toronto Raptors.

Although some might find it hard to believe, yours truly is a rather busy camper these days and doesn’t have nearly as much time available to devote to an in-depth statistical analysis of all-things Raptors, especially, in a season like this one … which has seen the team plummet to 13th place in the EC Standings.

Still, whenever possible, it’s a pleasure to provide a brief glimpse of something specific like this for a first-class individual like Scott G., if the opportunity presents itself, admittedly, in a limited way.

Such was the occasion last night, for the Raptors’ final game of the 2008-2009 season, versus the Chicago Bulls [7th place in the EC].

This is how the game played out for the Raptors:

and this is how things looked from a “Best Raptors” and “Best Bulls” on the floor perspective, according to the rudimentary k-PER [i.e. khandor's Player Efficiency Rating] which was explained here last week:

If you examine these two indexes thoroughly what you should be able to see for yourself are the following facts:

The Raptors played without Andrea Bargnani last night.

The Raptors finished +23 when Chris Bosh played Power Forward [20:42].
The Raptaors finished -11 when Chris Bosh played Center [14:52].
The Raptors finished -1 when Chris Bosh was on the bench [05:50].

When Chris Bosh played Center AND Jason Kapono was on the floor … for 11:26 … the Raptors finished -16.

When Chris Bosh played Center AND Jason Kapono was NOT on the floor … for 03:26 … the Raptors finished +5.

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Preliminary Conclusions

When the Raptors play without Andrea Bargnani in their line-up AND play Chris Bosh at Center AND do NOT have Jason Kapono on the floor in a 5-Man Unit with CB4 they may be a solid team in the EC that is capable of competing effectively with squads like the Chicago Bulls.

Pointing Toward The Future

Some other enterprising young person should take the time to study initial data like this and then track the “cumulative negative effect” it has on a NBA team when a non-rebounder/defender who is also an infrequent shooter and does not get to the Free Throw very much at all … like Jason Kapono … is on the court for as much as 20 minutes per game, beside a finesse Center like Chris Bosh and finesse Point Guards like Jose Calderon and/or Roko Ukic and/or Anthony parker.

What they might find is that this type of comparative analysis actually yields a statistically significant finding … with the benefit of a representative sample size … which indicates that the Raptors are simply WASTING THEIR AVAILABLE RESOURCES by employing a player like Jason Kapono in this way.

From the perspective of this corner … although these old eyes could always be mistaken about this … a formal research study of that particular type doesn’t appear to be necessary.

* Michael Grange, From Deep: Linton Johnson shouldn’t unpack

“We’re looking for defence, rebounding – those intangible things: getting on the floor for loose balls, bringing some grit and toughness to our basketball team. You can’t keep asking for that. After a while of asking [if you don't get it] it’s Bryan and my job go find it. We’ve been asking for that, but if it’s not in their DNA, let’s find someone for who it is in their DNA.”

From this corner of the blogosphere … that ^^^ move, right there, is a 1st Class piece of work by the Raptors’ joint architects.

Will it work?

Time will tell.

[PS. See what the real Linton looks like in-person, first, then go forth from there. Okay, take your pick.]