khandor’s sports blog

In the off season … and, despite what you were told by a variety of other observers, to the contrary … this corner indicated that there had NOT really been that much improvement from a player personnel and coaching standpoint with the 2009-2010 version of the Toronto Raptors, in spite of the radical roster make-over, compared with the other 29 teams in the NBA and, specifically, their competitors in the Eastern Conference.

Raptors improvement relative to other teams in division & conference [Sep 14 2009]

How the Eastern Conference looks for ‘09-10, based on individual player ratings, by position [Sep 08 2009]

Raptors Bench Strength: In eye of beholder [Aug 28 2009]

Strength of the Eastern Conference compared to 2006-2007 [Aug 25]

When you examine the early season results …

what you should be able to see is that:

1. The Raptors are STILL losing games to the better [>.500] teams in the NBA;

2. The Raptors are STILL winning games against the poorer [<.500] teams in the NBA; 

3. The Raptors are STILL a fairly good Home team;

4. The Raptors are STILL a fairly poor Away team;

5. The Raptors are STILL losing Away games against opponents that are good defensive and rebounding teams;

6. The Raptors are STILL winning an occasional Home game against a quality opponent [>.500];

7. The Raptors are STILL losing a high percentage of their Away games against a quality opponent [>.500].

Until the focus of the Raptors’ Management Team shifts away from:

“Playing an entertaining, high-scoring brand of fast-paced basketball which is capable of being ‘competitive’ on a game-to-game basis, winning a fair share of regular season games but without being able to advance very far in the playoffs due to a lack of defense and rebounding,” 

to

“Playing a brand of basketball which is well-balanced … i.e. evenly distributed between Offense, Defense and Rebounding … and thoroughly committed to competing for and eventually winning a League Championship, through the acquisition of the required number of High End players, and coaches, and scouts, and support staff, etc., it takes to accomplish THIS SPECIFIC GOAL, as a bottom line objective,”

there is little REAL reason to believe that the Raptors are anything more than a perennial Treadmill Team with the primary intention of making a bottom-line profit for its ownership group.

“Window dressing” does not take you to the upper echelon of the NBA.

Only an emphasis on Team Defense, Rebounding, Shared Team Offense AND a COMMITMENT TO WINNING IT ALL can accomplish THAT specific objective.

When ESPN and NBA.com publish weekly “power rankings”, it can be easy for casual fans to get swept away and begin to think that their favourite team might be better than it actually is, and in the process of becoming a legitimate contender.

However …

When you take a more in-depth look some of the specific factors which contribute to a team’s real ability, in this regard, relative to its opponents, what you should be able to see for yourself is a slightly different picture:

Legit Contenders For The NBA Championship: PART I

Updating these “unbiased” numbers through the games played as of Sunday, November 15, 2009 reveals that the Toronto Raptors remain exactly where they were the week before, i.e. occupying the #25 slot in the Association.

Quality Index Ranking [QIR]

1. Portland Trail Blazers, 8-3/.727 | QR = 5
2. Boston Celtics, 8-3/.727 | QR = 18
3. Milwaukee Bucks, 5-2/.714 | QR = 19
3. Miami Heat, 7-2/.778 | QR = 19
5. Dallas Mavericks, 7-3, .700 | QR = 21
6. Atlanta Hawks, 8-2/.800 | QR = 27
7. Oklahoma City Thunder, 5-5/.500 | QR = 28
8. Cleveland Cavaliers, 7-3/.700 | QR = 30
9. Charlotte Bobcats, 3-6/.333 | QR = 32
10. Detroit Pistons, 5-5/.500 | QR = 34
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11. Orlando Magic, 7-3/.700 | QR = 39
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12. Chicago Bulls, 5-4/.556 | QR = 40
13. Phoenix Suns, 9-2/.818 | QR = 45
13. Indiana Pacers, 4-3/.571 | QR = 45
15. Utah Jazz, 4-6/.400 | QR = 46
16. LA Lakers, 7-3/.700 | QR = 48
16. Denver Nuggets, 7-3/.700 | QR = 48
16. Sacramento Kings, 5-4/.556 | QR = 48
19. San Antonio Spurs, 4-4/.500 | QR = 49
20. Washington Wizards, 2-7/.222 | QR = 51
21. Houston Rockets, 6-4/.600 | QR = 54
22. Memphis Grizzlies, 2-8/.200 | QR = 58
23. LA Clippers, 4-7/.364 | QR = 62
24. Philadelphia 76ers, 4-6/.400 | QR = 66
25. Toronto Raptors, 5-5/.500 | QR = 67
25. New Jersey Nets, 1-10/.000 | QR = 67
27. New Orleans Hornets, 3-8/.273 | QR = 78 
28. Minnesota Timberwolves, 1-10/.091 | QR = 79
29. Golden State Warriors, 3-6/.333 | QR = 80
30. New York Knicks, 1-9/.100 | QR = 86

On an annual basis … teams that lead the league in:

* Points Differential, accumulate the most regular season W’s. Toronto is #17.

* Points Scored Allowed, have the ability to limit their opponent’s offensive productivity at crunch time. Toronto is #26.

* Rebounding Differential have the level of physicality required to advance in the post-season, when the outcome of games becomes a battle of collective will. Toronto is #24.

In each of these specific areas, the simple fact is that … the Raptors still have a long way to go before they can be considered a legitimate contender this season.

When the Expected Total Wins first get set across the board in the NBA, it can be an early indication of perceived Power Rankings for the coming season.

1 LA Lakers OVER 62, -108

2 San Antonio Spurs OVER 54.5, -108

3 Portland Trail Blazers OVER 52.5, -127

4 Denver Nuggets OVER 52.5, -108

5 Utah Jazz OVER 49.5, -108

6 Dallas Mavericks OVER 48.5, -108

7 New Orleans Hornets OVER 46.5, -102

8 Phoenix Suns OVER 41.5, -108

9 Houston Rockets OVER 35.5, -127
10 Golden State Warriors OVER 35.5, -108
11 Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 35.5, +105
12 LA Clippers OVER 34.5, +105
13 Memphis Grizzlies OVER 27.5, -108
14 Minnesota Timberwolves OVER -25.5, -160
15 Sacramento Kings OVER 24.5, -123

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You’re invited to elaborate on your opinion in the comments section. 

When you follow a distinctive career path that looks like this one:

Jason Williams: “I love to pass. Dwight Howard loves to score.”
“I don’t really pay attention to what you guys write in the papers, what people really think. You guys are going to write what you want and people are going to say what they want. I just want to go out and have fun and if throwing behind the back passes is what it takes to win that’s what I’m going to do it takes a regular bounce pass that’s what I’ll do too. I’m all about winning, now.”

Williams was asked if he’s matured.

“I wouldn’t say matured because I’m still a kid at heart,” Williams said. “I still do stupid things sometimes. When I’m out on the court I’m not worried about what people are thinking about my maturity  level. I just want to win And as long as my teammates and coach knows that that’s all that matters.”

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98-99 Rick Adelman, Geoff Petrie
99-00 Rick Adelman, Geoff Petrie
00-01 Rick Adelman, Geof Petrie
01-02 Sidney Lowe, Billy Knight
02-03 Sidney Lowe/Hubie Brown, Jerry West
03-04 Hubie Brown, Jerry West
04-05 Hubie Brown/Lionel Hollins/Mike Fratello, Jerry West
05-06 Stan Van Gundy/Pat Riley
06-07 Pat Riley
07-08 Pat Riley
08-09 Mike Dunleavy, Jr.
09-10 Stan Van Gundy, Otis Smith/Dave Twardzik

… eventually it just might truly become, “About getting the W.”

While the few teams at the top continue to get richer …

Tier 1 – Elite/Championship Contenders

Tier 2A – Playoff Contenders

Tier 2B – Possible Playoff Contenders

and those in the bottom tier …

Tier 3 – High Variable/Non Payoff Contenders

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LEGEND:

Bold – New Player Added via trade; Bold Italics – New Player Added via NBA Draft; Underlined – Resigned Own Free Agent; Bold Underlined – New Player Added via Free Agent Signing; ? – Unsigned Free Agent; ?? – Unsigned Restricted Free Agent; X – Player Returning From Injury; * - Status for this in-question due to injury/personal concerns; ** - Unsigned Draft Pick; Q – New Player Added via reported trade.

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continue spinning their wheels.

When this corner of the sports blogosphere told you earlier this fall/summer that the Raptors trade for Jermaine O’Neal was not going to be enough, by itself, to fundamentally improve Toronto’s Rebounding Deficiency from the last few seasons there were boatloads of delusional fans some who did not want to believe this specific assessment of this team, in advance of actually seeing real live NBA games this season with their own two eyes.

—————–

How could the acquisition of a former 6-time NBA All-Star …

in exchange for a smallish, erractic [but talented] Point Guard [i.e. TJ Ford], an over-the-hill, lumbering, strictly speaking part-time Center [i.e. Rasho Nesterovic], the 15th player from their roster last season [i.e. Maceo Baston], and a flip-flop of the No. 17 [overall] and No. 41 Draft Picks from the 2008 NBA Draft, who turned out to be Roy Hibbert [C] and Nathan Jawai [C], respectively …

possibly NOT improve the Raptors decidely mediocre rebounding numbers from the last few years in any significant way, shape or form?

—————–

Well … as of Thursday, November 6, 2008 the Basketball Acumen of this specific correspondent seems to be as sharp [and accurate] as ever:

[Statistics from NBA.com]

When a certain NBA observer tells you something about ‘How the Game actually Works in this League’, in advance … it might well be in your best interests to believe what this person has to say, even though you are not able to fully comprehend it, at that point in time.

—————–

“The proof of the pudding is in the eating.” - Anonymous

The NBA’s pre-season schedule of games is rapidly coming to a close.

In general, how a team fares in its pre-season games … in this League, at least … provides a preliminary indication of where it actually stands, relative to the competition, heading into the new campaign.

Annually, there are three major categories of teams in the NBA:

1. Above .549 [High End]
2. .450-.549 [Middle]
3. Below .450 [Low End]

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When you examine the current standings for the pre-season: 

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what you see, with only 4 days left, is generally speaking fairly representative of what you should now expect to get over the course of the 82-game regular season from these teams, in a broad sense.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Above .549
Orlando, Detroit, Boston, Atlanta, Philadelphia

.450-.549
Indiana, New York, Toronto

Below .450
Chicago, New Jersey, Washington [playing without Arenas], Cleveland [playing few minutes with LBJ] , Miami, Milwaukee, Charlotte

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Above .549
New Orleans, Minnesota, Denver, Houston, LA Lakers, Phoenix, Golden State, LA Clippers, Portland, Utah

.450-.549
Dallas, San Antonio [playing without Ginobili]

Below .450
Memphis, Oklahoma City, Sacramento

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Although it’s not uncommon for a team to shift from the High End to the Middle over the course of the regular season; it is rare for a team to move from the High End to the Low End … and vice versa … once the regular season starts unless, of course, it has to play [or is playing currently] without 1 or more of its marquee players for an extending number of games.

What is usually the most interesting thing to see, however, over the course of the 82-game regular season, is which few teams are able to elevate their performance (i) from the Middle into the High End, and (ii) from the Low End into the Middle … automatically making them one of the ‘Feel Good’ stories of the year; and, which few teams, if any, will go in the opposite direction … automatically making them one of the ‘Biggest Disappointment’ stories.

Into which specific category does it look as though your favourite team is going to fit this season?

High End now that stays in the High End
High End now that drops down into the Middle
Middle now that steps up into the High End
Middle now that stays in the Middle
Middle now that drops down into the Low End
Low End now that steps up into the Middle
Low End now that stays in the Low End